RPM National Economic Report - Q4 2025

1

National Economic Report Q4 2025

MARKET INTELLIGENCE NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Whats Inside This report presents and analyses the most recent economic and building datasets available as of 8th April 2026.

Economic Update and Insights

07

Property and Lending Update

31

Growth

08

Property Prices

32

Interest Rates & Inflation

11

Finance Activity

34

Consumption

16

Approvals

48

Savings

21

Commencements

51

Market Sentiment

22

Completion

54

Labour Markets

24

Outlook

55

Population

26

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

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Introduction This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Australia’s economic and property market conditions at a national level, using a structured set of leading indicators that collectively capture the direction of growth, inflation, household behaviour, labour market performance, credit conditions and residential supply.

Rather than relying on any single metric, the analysis brings together a broad dataset spanning macroeconomic activity, monetary policy, consumer behaviour, lending dynamics and housing delivery. This approach allows for a more complete understanding of how the economy is functioning in real time, and more importantly, where it is likely to move next.

The indicators have been structured to tell a clear, sequential story: • Economic foundation (GDP, CPI, wages) - sets the macro backdrop.

• Policy transmission (cash rate, mortgage rates) - impacts borrowing capacity.

• Household response (spending, savings) - drives demand.

• Labour market conditions - underpins income and confidence.

• Population growth - determines underlying housing demand.

• Credit flows - measures active market participation.

• Supply pipeline - determines the market’s ability to respond.

Together, these components provide a forwardlooking view of the Australian economy and residential market, highlighting not just where conditions stand today, but where imbalances, risks and opportunities are emerging.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Importantly, while this report is national in scope, it also considers variations across states and territories.

Differences in economic performance, population growth, housing supply and affordability continue to drive divergent market conditions, reinforcing that national trends often mask meaningful regional dynamics.

Purpose of the Report The purpose of this report is to translate these indicators into clear, actionable insights for market participants. By analysing how each component interacts with the others, the report provides a grounded view on: • The sustainability of current economic growth

Ultimately, this report is designed to move beyond data description and instead provide a joined-up view of the market, helping inform decision-making across development, investment and policy.

F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au O ur Research Consultancy Services create bespoke reports crafted to your specifications, translating rich data into in-depth analysis. For a bespoke report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

• The trajectory of interest rates and inflation • The strength and composition of housing demand • The capacity of the development pipeline to respond • The key risks and opportunities emerging into 2026

Disclaimer: As of publication, the economic outlook continues to evolve rapidly. Although reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this information, RPM Real Estate Group Pty Ltd take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes.

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Executive Summary Michael Staedler General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Australia’s economy and housing market experienced a period of stabilisation and modest recovery through 2025, supported by population growth, resilient labour market conditions and a strong rebound in lending activity.

However, this recovery is now losing momentum, with conditions shifting as inflationary pressures begin to re-emerge. Global supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical tensions are placing renewed upward pressure on energy, materials and construction costs, creating a more uncertain environment as we move through 2026.

While inflation had shown early signs of easing, the outlook has become more complex. The risk of persistently higher inflation is increasing, which may keep interest rates elevated for longer along with leading to further tightening. This continues to constrain borrowing capacity and weigh on household demand.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

The residential market remains highly fragmented.

Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide continue to outperform, while Sydney and Melbourne have stabilised under affordability constraints. Land values are showing the strongest growth, reinforcing ongoing supply-side limitations.

Lending activity has improved materially, with both owner-occupiers and investors returning to the market. However, demand remains defensive, concentrated in established housing and more affordable product.

Supply-side conditions improved through 2025, with approvals and commencements lifting, particularly across medium-density housing.

Despite this, delivery remains constrained, with completions largely flat and detached housing.

Key Takeaways • Momentum expected to slow after improvement through 2025.

• Higher-density delivery carries the greatest risk.

• Inflation likely to rise again, driven by global supply disruptions, with interest rates likely to remain higher for longer.

• A portion of forecast supply is unlikely to materialise.

• Housing demand remains resilient but affordability-constrained.

• Continued shift toward established housing and smaller product.

• Completions to remain constrained, particularly for detached housing.

• Supply-demand imbalance likely to persist into 2026.

• Supply recovery is uncertain and fragile.

• Global uncertainty (war, supply chains, costs) is the key downside risk.

• Construction costs and feasibility remain key constraints.

• Risks are skewed to slower activity rather than acceleration.

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Current Market Conditions Economic conditions improved through much of 2025, however, momentum is now becoming more uneven as inflationary pressures begin to re-emerge, driven by renewed supply-side constraints and escalating global uncertainty.

While headline inflation had shown signs of easing, recent trends suggest this may be short-lived, with risks skewed to the upside. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are beginning to place upward pressure on key inputs such as energy, materials and transport, which is expected to flow through to both construction costs and broader consumer prices.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Interest rates remain restrictive, with the potential for further tightening if inflation proves more persistent.

This continues to constrain borrowing capacity and weigh on household demand.

Households remain under pressure: • Real wages are only marginally improving.

• Consumer sentiment remains below neutral.

• Spending is increasingly concentrated in essential categories.

• Discretionary consumption remains subdued.

Housing conditions improved through 2025 but are now stabilising:

Cost pressures are rising again, driven by:

• Growth led by Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.

• Material cost escalation.

• Sydney and Melbourne under performed.

• Labour shortages.

• Global supply disruptions.

• Land outperforming, reflecting supply constraints.

Lending has rebounded, though demand remains defensive: • Broad growth across owner-occupiers and investors.

• Investor lending accelerating.

The labour market is showing early signs of softening, with unemployment edging higher and employment growth becoming more volatile. While still resilient, the trend points to gradual cooling rather than continued strength.

• Demand skewed to established housing (~73%).

Population growth continues to support underlying housing demand, although it is moderating from recent peaks and becoming more reliant on overseas migration.

• Approvals and commencements lifted.

• Shift toward affordability-driven product.

Supply has improved but remains constrained:

• Townhomes driving growth.

• Higher-density remains volatile and feasibility challenged.

Completions reinforce the imbalance: • Flat year-on-year.

• Detached housing declining.

• Uplift limited to higher-density projects.

Overall, momentum is softening, with rising inflation and global uncertainty likely to slow activity and reinforce supply constraints into 2026.

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National Economic Lead Indicators Gross Domestic Product

0.79%

Consumer Price Index (qtr) Dec 2025

Cash Rate

4.10%

Mar 2026

3.70%

Mar 2026

6.90%

Feb 2026

0.69%

Feb 2026

0.37%

Dec 2025

4.28%

Feb 2026

+111,090

Dec 2025

50,625

Dec 2025

Residential Commencements Feb 2026

Population Change Dec 2025

34,013 Residential Approvals

Unemployment Rate

Wage Index Mar 2026

0.15%

Total New Loans

Rental Index

Household Savings Ratio

3 Year Fixed Rate

6.45%

Feb 2026

Consumer Price Index (yr)

Discount Variable Rate

6.55%

0.00%

New Dwelling Index

51,195

Sep 2025

Residential Completions Sep 2025

45,329

Sep 2025

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Economic Update & Insights

This section outlines Australia’s current macroeconomic environment, focusing on growth, inflation, interest rates and labour market conditions. It also considers external influences, including geopolitical tensions and cost pressures, to frame the outlook for economic activity heading into 2026.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

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Gross Domestic Product GDP - % Change • Quarterly growth strengthened to 0.79% in Q4 2025.

• Rolling annual growth improved to 1.97%, up from 1.00%

a year earlier.

GDP Quarter on Quarter Change ­­­­­

MAT GDP - Annual Change

6.0%

• Growth is being supported by population and labour market

resilience, despite ongoing cost and rate pressures.

• Momentum is building, but still below long-term averages.

• Economic conditions remain constrained, with policy

settings continuing to weigh on growth.

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%

Quarterly Growth - Dec 2025

+0.79%

Annual Growth

+1.97%

0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24

Jun-25

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

0.00%

9

-2.00%

Gross State Product -4.00%

-6.00%

VIC • State economic growth remains subdued and uneven

GSP - Annual Result NSW

across Australia.

• In 2024/25, all states recorded modest growth, generally

between 1.0% and 2.2%, reflecting a broad slowdown from the stronger post-COVID rebound period.

• QLD is outperforming (+2.23%), supported by strong

population growth and investment.

• VIC and NSW are lagging, reflecting softer economic

conditions across the south-east.

• WA remains stable, underpinned by its resource-driven

economy.

• Economic activity is concentrated, with NSW (31%) and

VIC (23%) accounting for over half of national output.

• State divergence is widening, driven by differences in

population growth, industry mix and housing conditions.

QLD

SA Jun-23

State Contribution 2024/25 WA

Jun-24

NT

ACT

TAS

Jun-25

TAS NT ACT 2% 1% 2%

6.0%

WA 17%

4.0%

VIC 23%

2.0%

SA 6%

0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

QLD 19% VIC

NSW

QLD

SA

WA

NT

ACT

NSW 23%

TAS

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

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State Final Demand State Final Demand

Dec-25

Sep-25

Dec-24

3 Year Qtr Ave

VIC

0.69%

1.59%

0.58%

0.57%

NSW

0.62%

1.28%

0.57%

0.44%

• SA led growth (+1.21%), while QLD

QLD

0.10%

1.45%

0.10%

0.73%

• VIC and NSW remain steady, broadly in line with

SA

1.21%

1.38%

0.15%

0.74%

WA

0.48%

1.26%

0.72%

1.03%

NT

0.80%

-0.76%

1.50%

0.59%

ACT

0.46%

1.11%

0.00%

0.75%

TAS

0.32%

-2.53%

-4.04%

0.46%

• Domestic demand remains positive across all states,

with growth recorded in Q4 2025.

• Momentum has eased from the previous quarter, indicating

a broader slowdown. lagged (+0.10%). recent trends.

• WA is tracking below its recent average, reflecting

softer conditions.

• Overall, demand is slowing but remains resilient under

higher rates and cost pressures.

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

4.0% 11

3.0%

Interest Rates

3.70%

2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Mar-20

• The cash rate has increased to 4.10% (Mar-26), reversing

earlier easing and reinforcing a tightening bias.

• Recent movements suggest further rate increases remain

a near-term risk, particularly with persistent inflation and external pressures.

• Variable rates have lifted back to ~6.55%, maintaining

pressure on household cash flow.

• Fixed rates have edged higher again, now sitting between

roughly 5.7% and 6.5%, signalling expectations of sustained higher rates.

• Borrowing capacity remains constrained, limiting housing

demand and market activity.

• Overall, policy settings remain firmly restrictive,

with continued pressure on both households and the broader economy.

Interest Rates - 2020 to 2026

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Cash Rate

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Discounted Variable Rate

Sep-23

Mar-24

3 Year Fixed Rate

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-24

Mar-25

1-3 Year Fixed Rate

8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-25

Mar-26

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

3.0%

Consumer Price Index

12

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Yearly % Change

• Annual inflation eased slightly to 3.7% (Feb-26), down from

Apr-25

• Monthly momentum has softened, with CPI flat (0.0%)

6.0%

~3.8% late 2025.

in February 2026 following modest gains in January.

• Inflation remains above target, indicating persistent

underlying price pressures.

May-25

Australia

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Adelaide

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Perth

Hobart

Dec-25 Darwin

Jan-26

Feb-26

Canberra

5.0%

• Perth (4.9%) and Brisbane (3.7%) are leading inflation,

while Melbourne (3.3%) remains relatively lower.

• Volatility remains evident across the past 12 months.

4.0%

• External pressures, including energy and fuel costs,

continue to pose upside risk.

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Apr-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

National

National

Canberra

Canberra

Darwin

Darwin

Wages vs Consumer Price Index Hobart

Hobart

Perth

Perth

Adelaide

Adelaide

Brisbane

Brisbane

Melbourne

Melbourne

Sydney

• Wage growth remains solid at 3.44% annually,

but still slightly below inflation (3.63%).

• Quarterly wage growth slowed to 0.69%

0.00%

Quarterly Change - Wage vs CPI Index 0.50% 1.00% CPI Index Wage Index

Sydney

1.50%

0.00%

13

Annual Change - Wage vs CPI Index 0.50% 1.00% CPI Index Wage Index

in Q4, down from 1.34% in Q3, signalling easing momentum.

National

National

Canberra

Canberra

• Real wages remain marginally negative,

Darwin

Darwin

Hobart

Hobart

Perth

Perth

Adelaide

Adelaide

Brisbane

Brisbane

Melbourne

Melbourne

Sydney

Sydney

with limited improvement in purchasing power. Perth continues to lead wage growth (4.11%), while Brisbane records the highest inflation (5.07%).

• Inflation remains uneven across cities,

reinforcing differing cost-of-living pressures.

• Overall, income growth is stabilising, but

households remain under pressure.

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

1.50%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

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New Dwelling Index New Dwelling Index • National new dwelling prices rose 3.75% annually, with modest monthly growth of 0.15%.

• Price growth remains positive, reflecting ongoing cost pressures across construction.

• Perth (6.10%) and Hobart (9.20%) are leading growth, indicating stronger supply constraints.

• Melbourne recorded a slight monthly decline (-0.10%), suggesting softer conditions.

• Most markets are recording steady, moderate growth, rather than sharp increases.

• Overall, new dwelling prices continue to rise, reinforcing ongoing cost challenges for delivery and affordability.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

New Dwelling Index 12 Month Change

Monthly Change

12 Month Change

Sydney

0.20%

3.10%

Melbourne

-0.10%

3.10%

Canberra

Brisbane

0.30%

4.20%

Hobart

Adelaide Perth

0.10% 0.50%

3.30% 6.10%

Hobart

1.10%

9.20%

Darwin

0.30%

2.10%

Canberra

0.40%

2.90%

National

0.15%

3.75%

Monthly Change

National National Darwin Perth Adelaide Brisbane Melbourne Sydney

3.75% 0.15% Canberra 2.90% 0.40% 2.10% Darwin 0.30% Hobart 1.10% 0.50% Perth 0.10%

0.30% Adelaide -0.10% Brisbane 0.20%

-2.00% 0.00% 2.00% Melbourne

9.20% 6.10%

3.30% 4.20% 3.10% 3.10% 4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

Sydney -2.00% 0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

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Rental Index Rental Index

Rental Index

• National rents increased 3.77% annually, with

monthly growth of 0.37%.

12 Month Change

Monthly Change

12 Month Change

Sydney

0.30%

3.10%

leading growth, driven by strong demand.

Melbourne

0.30%

3.10%

Canberra

• Darwin also recorded strong monthly growth

Brisbane

0.60%

4.90%

Hobart

• Rental growth remains elevated, reflecting

ongoing supply constraints.

• Perth (5.80%) and Brisbane (4.90%) are

(0.90%), highlighting continued volatility.

• Sydney and Melbourne remain more

moderate (3.10%), indicating stabilisation in larger markets.

• Overall, rental markets remain tight,

continuing to place pressure on household budgets.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Adelaide Perth

0.10% 1.40%

4.60% 5.80%

Hobart

0.30%

2.40%

Darwin

0.90%

4.50%

Canberra

0.20%

1.10%

National

0.37%

3.77%

Monthly Change

National National Darwin Perth Adelaide Brisbane Melbourne Sydney

3.75% 0.15% Canberra 2.90% 0.40% 2.10% Darwin 0.30% Hobart 1.10% 0.50% Perth 0.10% 0.30% Adelaide -0.10% Brisbane 0.20%

-2.00%Melbourne 0.00% 2.00%

9.20% 6.10%

3.30% 4.20% 3.10% 3.10% 4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

Sydney 0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

16

Household Consumption Quarterly Change in Household Consumption Expenditure • Spending growth remains modest overall (+0.43%),

indicating a still-constrained consumer environment.

• Discretionary categories are leading growth, particularly: • Furnishings & household equipment (+2.15%) • Hospitality (cafés, restaurants) (+1.39%) • Clothing & footwear (+1.32%) • Services-related spending remains resilient, with health

and transport services continuing to expand.

• Essential spending is subdued (+0.28%), reflecting ongoing

cost-of-living pressure on households.

• Housing-related costs remain stable but not accelerating

(rent +0.40%).

• Sharp declines in utilities and tobacco (electricity/gas

-9.45%, tobacco -11.33%) highlight volatility and potential price-driven adjustments.

• Large-ticket discretionary items are weakening, with

vehicle purchases down materially (-4.58%).

Furnishings & Household Equipment

2.15%

Hotels, Cafes & Restaurants

1.39%

Health

1.32%

Clothing & Footwear

1.32%

Transport Services

0.88%

Insurance & Other Financial Services

0.83%

Recreation & Culture

0.80%

Alcoholic Beverages

0.65%

Education Services

0.54%

Other Goods & Services

0.52%

Total Private Consumption

0.43%

Rent & Other Dwelling Services

0.40%

Operation of Vehicles

0.33%

Essential Consumption

0.28%

Food

0.26%

Discretionary Consumption

0.17%

Communications

0.12%

Purchase of Vehicles

-4.58%

Electricity, Gas & Other Fuel Cigarettes & Tobacco -14.00%

-9.45% -11.33% -12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

5% 3% 1%

17

-1% -3% -5%

Essential and Discretionary Consumption -7%

-9%

-11%

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Mar-25

Sep-23

Jun-24

Mar-24

Dec-23

Sep-23

Jun-23

Mar-23

Dec-24

discretionary spending despite some recent improvement.

Jun-23

11%

• Households remain cautious, with limited upside in

Discretionary Consumption

17%

• Discretionary spending remains weaker and more volatile,

reverting to low, steady growth patterns.

Dec-22

Essential Consumption

15%

• Post-COVID volatility has normalised, with both categories

Sep-22

Jun-22

Dec-21

Quarterly Change in Essential and Discretionary Consumption

long-term average (0.49%), reflecting non-negotiable household costs. with growth below historical norms (3-year avg: 0.31%).

Sep-24

• Essential spending is more stable, tracking close to its

Mar-23

2025 showing modest increases:

Mar-22

• Growth remains subdued across both categories, with Q4

Sep-21

Jun-21

Mar-21

Dec-20

-13%

13% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1%

Essential - Dec 2025

+0.2%

Discretionary - Dec 2025

+0.4%

-3% -5% -7% -9% -11% Dec-25

Sep-25

Jun-25

Mar-25

Dec-24

Sep-24

Dec-22

Sep-22

Jun-22

Mar-22

Dec-21

Sep-21

Jun-21

Mar-21

Dec-20

-13%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

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Monthly Household Spending Household Spending - Total • Household spending declined -6.4% in February, following

the sharp -11.3% fall in January, confirming a continued contraction in early 2026.

• While the pace of decline moderated from January, the

persistence of negative monthly outcomes signals a clear loss of momentum. However, annual growth remains positive at +4.6%, indicating that consumption is slowing rather than collapsing.

• The February result highlights broad-based weakness

across all states:

• NSW (-6.8%), QLD (-6.7%), SA (-6.6%), ACT (-6.6%).

• VIC (-6.2%) and WA (-5.9%) recorded relatively

smaller declines.

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ch.

NSW

-6.8%

-11.5%

-5.7%

3.2%

VIC

-6.2%

-12.6%

-6.4%

3.7%

QLD

-6.7%

-10.8%

-7.2%

5.8%

SA

-6.6%

-10.7%

-6.8%

5.1%

WA

-5.9%

-10.2%

-6.5%

7.4%

TAS

-6.6%

-7.3%

-5.7%

4.7%

NT

-5.3%

-12.3%

-9.6%

8.5%

ACT

-6.6%

-10.3%

-6.4%

3.1%

AUS

-6.4%

-11.3%

-6.4%

4.6%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

19

Monthly Household Spending Household Spending - Goods

Household Spending - Services

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ch.

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ch.

NSW

-8.4%

-20.0%

-6.3%

1.5%

NSW

-5.2%

-0.8%

-5.2%

5.0%

VIC

-8.4%

-19.9%

-8.1%

2.8%

VIC

-3.5%

-1.6%

-4.3%

4.8%

QLD

-9.2%

-18.5%

-8.7%

4.1%

QLD

-4.1%

-0.5%

-5.4%

7.7%

SA

-9.2%

-19.5%

-8.8%

3.0%

SA

-3.9%

1.0%

-4.7%

7.3%

WA

-6.9%

-20.8%

-7.8%

5.7%

WA

-4.8%

4.0%

-5.2%

9.2%

TAS

-9.4%

-16.3%

-8.8%

1.4%

TAS

-3.9%

3.4%

-2.5%

8.0%

NT

-6.1%

-18.6%

-9.1%

6.3%

NT

-4.8%

-7.1%

-9.8%

10.1%

ACT

-9.4%

-17.6%

-7.7%

0.7%

ACT

-4.1%

-2.7%

-5.2%

5.2%

AUS

-8.4%

-19.6%

-7.7%

3.0%

AUS

-4.3%

-0.3%

-5.0%

6.3%

• Goods spending remains the primary driver of weakness, declining -8.4% in February,

• Services spending showed increased weakness in February, declining -4.3%, compared

• The step-down from January suggests the initial post-Christmas correction has passed,

• Despite the monthly decline, annual growth remains strong at +6.3%, reinforcing that

following the significant -19.6% fall in January.

however demand remains soft. Annual growth of +3.0% reflects ongoing normalisation in goods consumption.

to a relatively stable -0.3% in January.

services continue to underpin overall consumption.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

20

Monthly Household Spending Household Spending - Discretionary

Household Spending - Non-Discretionary

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ch.

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ch.

NSW

-9.5%

-12.9%

-7.9%

3.2%

NSW

-1.3%

-8.5%

-1.4%

3.3%

VIC

-8.3%

-14.9%

-8.7%

3.6%

VIC

-2.5%

-8.3%

-2.5%

3.9%

QLD

-9.0%

-13.9%

-9.0%

5.9%

QLD

-2.5%

-4.6%

-3.9%

5.7%

SA

-8.8%

-12.5%

-8.4%

4.8%

SA

-2.4%

-7.0%

-3.9%

5.6%

WA

-7.8%

-13.1%

-9.0%

7.4%

WA

-2.6%

-4.9%

-2.5%

7.4%

TAS

-7.7%

-8.3%

-6.9%

5.1%

TAS

-4.6%

-5.5%

-3.6%

4.0%

NT

-6.0%

-14.2%

-9.5%

8.5%

NT

-6.0%

-14.2%

-9.5%

8.5%

ACT

-8.9%

-12.6%

-8.7%

3.4%

ACT

-2.4%

-5.8%

-2.3%

2.7%

AUS

-8.7%

-13.6%

-8.5%

4.6%

AUS

-2.1%

-6.8%

-2.7%

4.6%

• Discretionary spending remains under the most pressure, declining -8.7% in February,

• Non-discretionary spending declined more moderately in February, falling -2.1%,

• While the rate of decline eased from January, discretionary spending continues to be

• The moderation in February reinforces the relative stability of essential spending.

following -13.6% in January.

highly sensitive to cost-of-living pressures. Annual growth remains positive at +4.6%, though momentum is clearly deteriorating.

improving from -6.8% in January.

Annual growth remains steady at +4.6%, continuing to underpin overall consumption.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

21

Household Savings Ratio Household Savings Ratio • Savings ratio increased to 6.9% in Dec-25, continuing the

recovery from cycle lows in 2023.

25.0%

• Now above the pre-COVID average (5.5%), indicating a

rebuild in household buffers.

• Follows a sharp decline through 2022–2023 (low ~1.9%),

when cost-of-living pressures peaked.

20.1%

20.0%

• Stabilisation evident through 2024, with savings returning

to more normalised levels.

• Recent uplift in 2025 suggests cautious consumer

15.0%

behaviour, with households prioritising savings. a return to more typical conditions.

10.0% 6.9%

Pre covid ave (2015-19)= 5.9%

1.9%

Sep-25

Jun-25

Mar-25

Dec-24

Sep-24

Jun-24

Mar-24

Dec-23

Sep-23

Jun-23

Mar-23

Dec-22

Sep-22

Jun-22

Mar-22

Dec-21

Sep-21

0.0% Jun-21

+5.5%

5.0%

Dec-20

+6.9%

December 2024

Mar-21

December 2025

Dec-25

• Remains well below COVID-era peaks (20%+), highlighting

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

22

Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment • Sentiment remains below neutral (100) at 91.6 in Mar-26,

indicating continued consumer pessimism.

• Improved from recent lows, but still well below

long-term averages.

• Volatility evident through 2025, with a spike in Nov-25

(103.8) followed by a sharp pullback.

• Recent months show softening momentum, with declines in

Jan–Feb before a modest rebound in March.

• Reflects ongoing cost-of-living pressures and

interest rate sensitivity.

• Material decline from 2021 peaks (110–120 range) highlights

shift in household confidence.

120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 92.1

90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

Mar-26

Jan-26

Nov-25

Sep-25

Jul-25

May-25

Mar-25

Jan-25

Nov-24

Sep-24

Jul-24

May-24

Mar-24

Jan-24

Nov-23

Sep-23

Jul-23

May-23

Mar-23

Jan-23

Nov-22

Sep-22

Jul-22

May-22

Mar-22

Jan-22

Nov-21

Sep-21

Jul-21

May-21

Mar-21

70.0

Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

23

Business Sentiment Business Sentiment • Business confidence remains modestly positive at

3.3 in Feb-26, but well below long-term averages.

35.0

• Significant decline from 2021–2022 peaks (20+), reflecting

tighter economic conditions.

30.0

• Volatility persists through 2024–2025, with confidence

moving in and out of neutral territory.

25.0

• Recent momentum has softened, with a pullback from

late-2025 highs (Dec-25: 6.7).

• Periods of negative sentiment in 2024–2025 highlight

uncertainty across businesses.

• Indicates cautious business outlook, particularly in

response to interest rates and cost pressures.

20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Feb-26

Dec-25

Oct-25

Aug-25

Jun-25

Apr-25

Feb-25

Dec-24

Oct-24

Aug-24

Jun-24

Apr-24

Feb-24

Dec-23

Oct-23

Aug-23

Jun-23

Apr-23

Feb-23

Dec-22

Oct-22

Aug-22

Jun-22

Apr-22

Feb-22

Dec-21

Oct-21

Aug-21

Jun-21

Apr-21

Feb-21

-5.0

Source: National Australia Bank Business Survey

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

20,000

2.5% 2.0%

0

24

1.5% 1.0%

National Labour Market Snapshot -20,000

0.5%

4.7% in Feb-26, up from 4.2% in Jan-26.

• Gradual softening trend through 2024–2025, with

unemployment moving from around 3.5–3.7% to the mid-4% range.

• Employment growth remains uneven, with large swings

Full Time

Part Time

Feb-26

Jan-26

Dec-25

Nov-25

Oct-25

Sep-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

May-25

Apr-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Monthly Change in Employment

Jan-25

Dec-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Sep-24

Aug-24

Jul-24

Jun-24

Apr-24

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

Dec-23

Nov-23

Oct-23

Sep-23

Aug-23

Jul-23

May-24

• Unemployment remains relatively low but volatile, sitting at

Jun-23

May-23

Apr-23

Mar-23

0.0% Feb-23

-40,000

Unemployment Rate %

Unemployment Rate

80,000

5.0% 4.5%

60,000

4.0%

between full-time and part-time roles.

• Recent data shows mixed signals, with strong

3.5%

40,000

full-time gains in Jan-26 (+37k) offset by declines in Feb-26 (-19.8k).

• Shift toward part-time employment persists, reflecting

3.0% 2.5%

20,000

softer labour demand and business caution.

• Despite volatility, the labour market remains resilient by

historical standards.

2.0% 0

1.5% 1.0%

-20,000

0.5% 0.0% Feb-26

Jan-26

Dec-25

Nov-25

Oct-25

Sep-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

May-25

Apr-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Jan-25

Dec-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Sep-24

Aug-24

Jul-24

Jun-24

May-24

Apr-24

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

Dec-23

Nov-23

Oct-23

Sep-23

Aug-23

Jul-23

Jun-23

May-23

Apr-23

Mar-23

Feb-23

-40,000

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

25

State Labour Market Snapshot Unemployment Rate

Employment Growth

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ave

NSW

4.1%

4.1%

4.0%

4.1%

VIC

4.7%

4.2%

4.6%

QLD

4.4%

4.3%

SA

4.0%

WA

Participation Rate

Feb 26 Ch.

12 Month Ch.

Feb-26

Jan-26

Feb-25

12 Mth Ave

NSW

0.97%

1.73%

NSW

66.0%

65.8%

66.2%

65.8%

4.5%

VIC

0.10%

2.21%

VIC

67.7%

67.7%

67.7%

67.7%

4.0%

4.2%

QLD

-0.21%

1.75%

QLD

66.9%

66.8%

67.2%

67.0%

3.7%

3.8%

4.2%

SA

-0.83%

3.23%

SA

64.7%

64.7%

63.6%

64.5%

4.2%

3.4%

3.5%

4.0%

WA

-0.21%

0.89%

WA

68.6%

68.6%

69.1%

68.7%

TAS

4.6%

4.9%

4.0%

4.1%

TAS

-1.08%

0.91%

TAS

60.5%

60.6%

60.4%

60.9%

NT

5.5%

4.8%

4.6%

4.3%

NT

1.25%

0.78%

NT

73.2%

73.1%

72.9%

72.8%

ACT

3.8%

4.7%

3.1%

4.0%

ACT

3.37%

1.15%

ACT

71.6%

71.6%

72.1%

71.8%

AUS

4.3%

4.1%

4.1%

4.2%

AUS

0.33%

1.83%

AUS

66.8%

66.8%

67.0%

66.9%

• National unemployment increased to 4.3%, slightly

above the 12-month average (4.2%).

• National employment growth remains positive (+0.33%

• National participation stable at 66.8%, broadly in line

• Annual growth strongest in SA (+3.23%) and VIC

• Overall, labour supply remains stable, despite softer

m/m; +1.83% y/y). (+2.21%).

with the 12-month average. employment conditions.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

0

26

-50,000

National Population Snapshot

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Dec-23

Sep-23

Jun-23

Mar-23

Dec-22

Sep-22

Jun-22

Mar-22

Dec-21

Sep-21

Jun-21

Mar-21

Dec-20

Sep-20

-100,000

Quarterly Change in Persons • Population growth remains elevated but moderating, with

2025 tracking around 110,000–140,000, down from the 2023 peak (170,000–190,000).

Natural Increase

Net Overseas Migration

200,000

• Net overseas migration (NOM) remains the key driver,

contributing 70–80% of growth (Sep-25: 87,821).

• Natural increase continues to soften, now typically

150,000

23,000–34,000 per quarter.

• Growth through 2024–2025 reflects normalisation from

100,000

peak levels, but remains above pre-COVID averages.

50,000

0

-50,000

Sep-25

Jun-25

Mar-25

Dec-24

Sep-24

Jun-24

Mar-24

Mar-22

Dec-21

Sep-21

Jun-21

Mar-21

Dec-20

Sep-20

-100,000

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

27

State Population Snapshot Total Population

Overseas Migration

Sep-25

Qtr Ch.

Qtr Ch. %

Yr Ch.

Sep-25

Qtr Ch.

Qtr Ch. %

Yr Ch.

NSW

8,624,534

32,010

0.37%

1.24%

NSW

28,942

13,351

116.78%

10.13%

VIC

7,104,349

30,490

0.43%

1.75%

VIC

24,125

11,063

84.70%

7.17%

QLD

5,692,642

22,878

0.40%

1.74%

QLD

14,769

3,165

27.28%

10.43%

SA

1,908,182

5,517

0.29%

1.12%

SA

5,336

2,116

65.71%

6.08%

WA

3,061,672

17,290

0.57%

2.20%

WA

11,437

4,529

65.56%

-2.22%

TAS

576,659

398

0.07%

0.28%

TAS

643

233

56.83%

-12.64%

NT

265,457

901

0.34%

1.43%

NT

994

200

25.19%

14.25%

ACT

486,231

1,601

0.33%

1.35%

ACT

1,570

785

100.00%

37.84%

AUS

27,724,744

111,090

0.40%

1.55%

AUS

87,821

37,679

75.14%

7.57%

• National growth remains solid (+111,090/+0.40% q/q; +1.55% y/y),

reinforcing ongoing population expansion.

• WA (+0.57% q/q) is the standout growth state, followed by VIC (+0.43%)

• Overseas migration remains the dominant growth driver (87,821 nationally).

• Strong quarterly rebound (+75.1%), led by NSW (+13,351) and VIC (+11,063).

and QLD (+0.40%).

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

28

State Population Snapshot Interstate Migration

Natural Increase Sep-25

Qtr Ch.

Qtr Ch. %

Yr Ch.

Sep-25

Qtr Ch.

Qtr Ch. %

Yr Ch.

NSW

7,671

-2,717

-26.16%

23.07%

NSW

-4,603

676

-12.81%

-17.48%

VIC

5,968

-4,000

-40.13%

-38.40%

VIC

397

138

53.28%

-148.36%

QLD

5,050

-653

-11.45%

13.00%

QLD

3,059

-1,134

-27.05%

-45.00%

SA

158

-472

-74.92%

23.44%

SA

23

189

113.86%

109.35%

WA

3,449

-479

-12.19%

-5.27%

WA

2,404

166

7.42%

-0.66%

TAS

-125

-239

-209.65%

-56.25%

TAS

-120

210

63.64%

66.01%

NT

455

-31

-6.38%

-14.15%

NT

-548

38

6.48%

1.62%

ACT

643

-207

-24.35%

2.55%

ACT

-612

-283

-86.02%

-43.33%

AUS

23,269

-8,800

-27.44%

-7.74%

• Natural increase continues to soften nationally (-27.4% q/q).

• Interstate migration remains mixed and volatile across states.

• Declines evident across most states, particularly VIC (-40.1%) and SA (-74.9%).

• Large percentage swings reflect low base effects and ongoing redistribution trends.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

400,000 29

300,000

National Population Projections 200,000

100,000 0

• National population growth remains steady (1.2% p.a.),

reaching 28.6 million by 2027–28.

• Growth profile reflects a moderation from recent

migration-driven peaks, but remains above long-term averages.

2024-25

Persons

2025-26

Natural Increase

Net Overseas Migration

2026-27

2027-28

Total Increase

800,000 700,000

• Population growth remains migration-led, with net

overseas migration (225k–262k p.a.) consistently accounting for the majority of growth.

• Natural increase is materially lower (100k–115k p.a.),

contributing roughly one-third of total growth.

• Net overseas migration declines from 262k to

roughly 226k, signalling a controlled slowdown rather than a sharp correction.

600,000 500,000 400,000

• Despite easing, migration remains structurally elevated vs

300,000

• Continues to be the key lever driving housing demand and

200,000

pre-COVID levels.

population growth.

100,000 0

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28 Source: Centre of Population

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

30

State Population Projections Population Projections State Growth Leaders

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

3 Yr Ave Growth

VIC

7,073,859

7,176,459

7,274,159

7,375,059

1.4%

NSW

8,592,524

8,684,424

8,770,624

8,861,824

1.0%

QLD

5,669,764

5,755,064

5,832,864

5,910,164

1.4%

SA

1,906,687

1,922,687

1,936,287

1,949,187

0.7%

WA

3,044,382

3,099,982

3,147,082

3,190,882

1.6%

TAS

576,261

577,161

578,561

580,461

0.2%

NT

264,556

267,856

270,356

272,556

1.0%

ACT

484,630

490,730

496,730

503,330

1.3%

AUS

27,612,663

27,974,363

28,306,663

28,643,463

1.2%

• WA (1.6% p.a.) is the fastest growing state, underpinned by

migration and economic momentum.

• VIC and QLD (both 1.4% p.a.) remain key growth engines,

driving both volume and rate of growth.

• ACT (1.3% p.a.) continues to perform strongly on a

smaller base.

Mid-Tier Growth • NSW (1.0% p.a.) shows stable but slower growth, reflecting

net interstate outflows.

• NT (1.0% p.a.) also sits in this bracket, though with more

volatility.

Volume Growth (Key Insight) • NSW and VIC remain the largest contributors in absolute

terms, adding the most population despite slower growth rates.

• QLD and WA continue to gain share, reflecting interstate

migration and affordability-driven demand shifts.

Source: Centre of Population

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

31

Property & Lending Update

This section outlines Australia’s residential market and lending environment, focusing on dwelling price movements, borrowing activity, and buyer composition. It also considers supply-side dynamics, including approvals, commencements and completions, to frame the outlook for housing demand and delivery heading into 2026.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

32

Residential Prices - Q4 2025 Sydney

Melbourne

House

Unit

Land

House

Unit

Land

$1.5M

$850K

$701K

$890K

$640K

$406K

+4.3% Ann. Ch.

+0% Qtr Ch.

+2.2% Ann. Ch.

+3.9% Qtr Ch.

+0.6% Ann. Ch.

+2.3% Qtr Ch.

Brisbane

+2.3% Ann. Ch.

+4.7% Qtr Ch.

+3.2% Ann. Ch.

+2.2% Qtr Ch.

+5.3% Ann. Ch.

Perth

House

Unit

Land

House

Unit

Land

$1.175M

$808K

$485K

$950K

$690K

$650K

+18.7% Ann. Ch.

+6.8% Qtr Ch.

+18.8% Ann. Ch.

+6.3% Qtr Ch.

+24.4% Ann. Ch.

+1.0% Qtr Ch.

Adelaide

+18.6% Ann. Ch.

+10.5% Qtr Ch.

+25.5% Ann. Ch.

+11.3% Qtr Ch.

+65.1% Ann. Ch.

Unit

Land

House

Unit

Land

$915K

$715K

$383K

$1.027M

$627K

$618K

+3.7% Ann. Ch.

+0.3% Ann. Ch.

+6.0% Qtr Ch.

+15.3% Ann. Ch.

+5.9% Qtr Ch.

+29.7% Ann. Ch.

+2.0% Qtr Ch.

Hobart

+0.1% Qtr Ch.

-1.3% Qtr Ch.

-3.5% Ann. Ch.

Unit

Land

House

Unit

Land

$720K

$615K

$253K

$665K

$420K

N/A

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

-6.4% Qtr Ch.

Darwin

House

+1.8% Ann. Ch.

+29.0% Qtr Ch.

Canberra

House

+9.6% Ann. Ch.

+1.4% Qtr Ch.

+0.7% Qtr Ch.

+12.6% Ann. Ch.

+7.0% Qtr Ch.

-22.3% Ann. Ch.

-10.5% Qtr Ch.

+20.9% Ann. Ch.

+4.4% Qtr Ch.

+19.3% Ann. Ch.

+6.3% Qtr Ch.

N/A Ann. Ch.

N/A Qtr Ch.

20.0% 33

10.0%

Residential Prices Annual Change in Prices

Brisbane

Adelaide

Houses

Units

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

0.0%

-10.0%

Canberra

-20.0%

Sydney

Melbourne

Land

Quarterly Change in Prices

Brisbane

Adelaide

Houses

70.0%

35.0%

60.0%

30.0%

50.0%

25.0%

40.0%

20.0%

30.0%

15.0%

20.0%

10.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

-30.0%

-15.0%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Units

Sydney

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Land

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra Source: Pricefinder

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

50,000 40,000

34

30,000

Lending Activity - Loans

20,000 10,000

27%

27%

QLD

22%

22%

23%

SA

6%

6%

7%

WA

11%

12%

12%

20,000

TAS

2%

2%

2%

10,000

NT

1%

1%

1%

0

ACT

2%

2%

2%

Dec-25

Sep-25

Jun-25

Mar-25

Dec-24

Sep-24

Jun-24

Mar-24

Dec-23

Sep-23

50,000 40,000

Dec-25

30,000

Sep-25

national lending activity, underscoring their dominance in housing demand.

28%

Jun-25

• These four states represent around 89% of

VIC

60,000

Mar-25

account for 28%, followed by QLD (22%) and WA (11%).

27%

Dec-24

• On a market share basis, NSW and VIC each

28%

Sep-24

average (128,597), reinforcing the recovery in lending activity.

28%

Jun-24

• Total volumes remain well above the 3-year

NSW

Investors

70,000

Mar-24

strong increases from smaller bases.

Dec-24

Dec-23

• TAS (+27% y/y) and NT (+13% y/y) recorded

Sep-25

Non-First Home Buyer

Sep-23

strongest growth among major states.

Dec-25

Jun-23

• NSW (+19% y/y) and VIC (+18% y/y) drove the

First Home Buyer

Mar-23

• Total housing finance commitments increased

11% q/q and 14% y/y, reaching 158,121 loans.

Jun-23

Total Loans by Buyer Type

Dec-22

Share of Loans by State

Mar-23

Dec-22

0

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

35

First Home Buyer Loans First Home Buyer Share by State

First Home Buyer Loans • First home buyer lending increased 16% q/q

and 10% y/y, reaching 34,013 loans nationally in Dec-25.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Year Qtr Ave.

NSW

8,458

22%

20%

6,925

VIC

11,082

13%

7%

QLD

6,528

16%

average (28,973), indicating improving entry-level demand.

SA

2,106

• In terms of market share, VIC dominates

WA

• NSW (+22% q/q; +20% y/y) recorded the

strongest growth among major states, with ACT (+27% y/y) and TAS (+18% y/y) also rising strongly off smaller bases.

• Volumes remain above the 3-year

(33%), followed by NSW (25%) and QLD (19%), with WA (12%) the next largest contributor.

• The FHB segment remains highly concentrated

across VIC, NSW and QLD (~77%).

Dec-25

Sep-25

Dec-24

NSW

25%

24%

23%

9,337

VIC

33%

34%

33%

7%

5,618

QLD

19%

19%

20%

22%

4%

1,806

SA

6%

6%

7%

3,967

15%

3%

3,802

WA

12%

12%

12%

TAS

610

-1%

18%

514

TAS

2%

2%

2%

NT

293

28%

14%

212

NT

1%

1%

1%

ACT

969

17%

27%

760

ACT

3%

3%

2%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

36

Non-First Home Buyer Loans Non-First Home Buyer Share by State

Non-First Home Buyer Loans • Non-first home buyer lending rose 10% q/q

and 6% y/y, to 60,760 loans in Dec-25.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Year Qtr Ave.

NSW

16,575

12%

10%

13,565

VIC

16,807

12%

10%

QLD

13,665

6%

SA

3,892

and NSW (27%) lead nationally, followed by QLD (22%).

WA

• This distribution broadly reflects population

• Growth was led by NSW and VIC (+12% q/q),

with ACT also increasing (+13% q/q).

• SA (-1% y/y) was the only state to record an

annual decline.

• Volumes remain above the 3-year average

(51,954), reflecting stable upgrader demand.

• From a market share perspective, VIC (28%)

scale and established housing depth.

Dec-25

Sep-25

Dec-24

NSW

27%

27%

26%

13,973

VIC

28%

27%

27%

3%

11,929

QLD

22%

23%

23%

7%

-1%

3,617

SA

6%

7%

7%

6,857

8%

0%

6,355

WA

11%

12%

12%

TAS

1,186

9%

11%

1,030

TAS

2%

2%

2%

NT

389

10%

4%

337

NT

1%

1%

1%

ACT

1,389

13%

3%

1,148

ACT

2%

2%

2%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

37

Investor Loans Investor Loan Share

Investor Loans • Investor lending increased 8% q/q and 24%

y/y, reaching 63,348 loans nationally.

• VIC (+38% y/y) and NSW (+28% y/y) drove

the strongest annual growth among major states.

• TAS (+66% y/y) and NT (+20% y/y) recorded

strong gains off smaller bases.

• Investor volumes are well above the 3-year

average (47,670), confirming a clear reacceleration.

• In terms of market share, NSW leads (31%),

followed by VIC (25%) and QLD (22%).

• WA (11%) sits slightly below its overall lending

share, highlighting a more owner-occupier weighted market.

• Investor activity remains heavily concentrated

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Year Qtr Ave.

Dec-25

Sep-25

Dec-24

NSW

19,714

7%

28%

14,384

NSW

31%

31%

30%

VIC

15,735

12%

38%

11,165

VIC

25%

24%

22%

QLD

14,213

7%

16%

11,080

QLD

22%

23%

24%

SA

4,131

7%

10%

3,321

SA

7%

7%

7%

WA

7,230

9%

13%

5,907

WA

11%

11%

13%

TAS

878

22%

66%

583

TAS

1%

1%

1%

NT

556

-4%

20%

348

NT

1%

1%

1%

ACT

891

-4%

6%

883

ACT

1%

2%

2%

in the eastern seaboard.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

80,000 70,000 60,000

38

50,000 40,000 30,000

Number of New Loan Commitments by Type 20,000

10,000

Sep-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

May-25

Apr-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Jan-25

Dec-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Sep-24

Aug-24

Jul-24

Jun-24

May-24

Apr-24

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

Dec-23

Nov-23

Oct-23

120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000

Established dwellings dominate (73% of lending), while:

40,000

• Land and renovations are gaining momentum.

Sep-23

Total Average Value

Overall, demand remains heavily skewed toward established housing, with emerging strength in land and renovation activity highlighting affordability-driven behaviour.

• Construction and new builds remain below trend.

Aug-23

Jul-23

Jun-23

Apr-23

Mar-23

Feb-23

May-23

Alteration & Additions

Dec-25

Owner-occupier lending has strengthened materially, with volumes now above the 3-year average (+4.6%), signalling a broad-based recovery in demand.

Residential Land

Apr-25

QLD (23,983).

Established Dwelling

Nov-25

• Largest markets: VIC (31,116), NSW (28,891) and

Newly Erected Dwelling

Mar-25

VIC (+12.7% q/q).

Construction of a Dwelling

Oct-25

• Growth led by NSW (+14.9% q/q; +14.3% y/y) and

Count of Loans by Owner Occupier Type

Feb-25

• 109,468 loans nationally (+11.9% q/q; +8.4% y/y).

Jan-23

Total Owner Occupier Lending:

Dec-22

0

50,000

30,000 20,000 10,000 Dec-25

Nov-25

Oct-25

Sep-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

May-25

Jan-25

Dec-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Sep-24

Aug-24

Jul-24

Jun-24

May-24

Apr-24

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

Dec-23

Nov-23

Oct-23

Sep-23

Aug-23

Jul-23

Jun-23

May-23

Apr-23

Mar-23

Feb-23

Jan-23

Dec-22

0

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

39

Number of New Loan Commitments by Type No. of Owner Occupier Loans for Construction of Dwelling

No. of Owner Occupier Loans for Newly Erected Dwellings

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

1,414

10.1%

20.2%

-11.1%

NSW

1,437

6.3%

1.1%

-8.3%

VIC

2,666

12.0%

6.3%

-10.1%

VIC

1,776

13.5%

9.2%

-0.1%

QLD

2,167

6.3%

3.6%

5.7%

QLD

803

12.6%

-6.3%

-3.8%

SA

955

13.8%

-5.9%

1.0%

SA

482

-0.2%

7.1%

18.6%

WA

2,229

28.5%

14.4%

12.5%

WA

513

31.2%

23.0%

1.5%

TAS

135

-2.2%

27.4%

-7.0%

TAS

41

-34.9%

-8.9%

-21.9%

NT

96

68.4%

50.0%

17.6%

NT

16

14.3%

-5.9%

0.0%

ACT

88

4.8%

17.3%

-14.5%

ACT

137

-27.1%

-39.6%

-22.4%

AUS

9,750

14.0%

8.5%

-2.1%

AUS

5,205

9.1%

2.9%

-3.1%

• Construction activity is rebounding, but remains below trend (-2.1% vs 3yr), indicating

• New dwelling demand remains subdued (-3.1% vs 3yr), highlighting weakness in turnkey/

• 9,750 loans nationally (+14.0% q/q; +8.5% y/y).

• 5,205 loans nationally (+9.1% q/q; +2.9% y/y).

• VIC (2,666) and WA (2,229) remain the largest construction markets.

• Growth led by WA (+31.2% q/q; +23.0% y/y) and VIC (+13.5% q/q).

ongoing supply-side constraints.

new build delivery.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

40

Number of New Loan Commitments by Type No. of Owner Occupier Loans for Established Dwellings

No. of Owner Occupier Loans for Residential Land

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

22,182

16.1%

13.8%

9.5%

NSW

1,314

24.5%

26.1%

0.2%

VIC

23,447

12.5%

8.9%

10.9%

VIC

1,650

9.9%

2.9%

-6.7%

QLD

17,223

9.5%

4.7%

4.3%

QLD

1,324

3.4%

8.4%

8.8%

SA

4,561

13.0%

1.7%

0.2%

SA

523

11.0%

-4.4%

-1.2%

WA

8,082

5.2%

-3.5%

-2.0%

WA

1,090

12.8%

27.3%

25.9%

TAS

1,620

7.9%

13.3%

7.6%

TAS

146

8.1%

46.0%

-1.5%

NT

570

11.5%

3.4%

0.3%

NT

73

55.3%

69.8%

20.2%

ACT

2,133

19.8%

17.5%

9.2%

ACT

39

-32.8%

44.4%

-6.0%

AUS

79,818

12.1%

7.7%

6.6%

AUS

6,159

11.7%

13.2%

2.6%

• Owner-occupier demand remains heavily skewed toward established housing,

• Land demand is accelerating, supported by affordability-driven buyers and growth

• 79,818 loans nationally (+12.1% q/q; +7.7% y/y)

• 6,159 loans nationally (+11.7% q/q; +13.2% y/y).

driven by immediate availability and limited new supply.

— dominant segment (~73% of OO lending).

• Strong growth in NSW (+16.1% q/q; +13.8% y/y) and ACT (+19.8% q/q; 17.5% y/y).

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

corridor activity.

• Strong growth in NSW (+26.1% y/y) and WA (+27.3% y/y).

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

$500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0

41

• Loan values remain elevated nationally, with strongest

growth in more affordable states (QLD, SA, WA).

• The spread highlights a clear affordability hierarchy across

product types.

• Strongest growth in QLD (+14.7%), SA (+13.9%),

WA (+12.0%).

• NSW ($756k) remains the highest nationally, followed by

QLD ($619k) and VIC ($606k).

Construction of a Dwelling

Newly Erected Dwelling

Established Dwelling

Residential Land

Alteration & Additions

Total Average Value

Dec-25

Nov-25

Oct-25

Sep-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

May-25

Apr-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Jan-25

Dec-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Sep-24

Aug-24

Average Price of New Loans by Type

Jul-24

Jun-24

May-24

Apr-24

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

Dec-23

Nov-23

Oct-23

Sep-23

Aug-23

Jul-23

Jun-23

May-23

Apr-23

Mar-23

Feb-23

Jan-23

National average loan: $637,422 (+6.3% q/q; +9.6% y/y).

Dec-22

Value of New Loan Commitments by Type

$800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Dec-25

Nov-25

Oct-25

Sep-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

May-25

Apr-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Jan-25

Dec-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Sep-24

Aug-24

Jul-24

Jun-24

May-24

Apr-24

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

Dec-23

Nov-23

Oct-23

Sep-23

Aug-23

Jul-23

Jun-23

May-23

Apr-23

Mar-23

Feb-23

Jan-23

Dec-22

$0

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

42

Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Value of New Loan Commitments for Construction of Dwelling

Value of New Loan Commitments for Newly Erected Dwellings

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

$855,304

1.8%

11.0%

8.1%

NSW

$769,241

-1.7%

-5.1%

6.0%

VIC

$672,506

2.2%

6.2%

4.9%

VIC

$685,867

2.5%

6.9%

6.0%

QLD

$681,772

1.8%

12.6%

5.9%

QLD

$754,421

0.2%

14.1%

12.6%

SA

$614,450

4.7%

13.2%

6.8%

SA

$638,589

5.7%

9.9%

12.8%

WA

$638,627

3.1%

12.6%

7.7%

WA

$528,655

-3.2%

-9.4%

8.1%

TAS

$578,519

10.0%

-0.1%

4.3%

TAS

$521,951

3.4%

27.7%

4.8%

NT

$593,750

-1.3%

5.8%

2.4%

NT

$481,250

-18.8%

-0.2%

8.1%

ACT

$800,000

-4.1%

-2.0%

1.6%

ACT

$635,036

13.6%

20.7%

6.2%

AUS

$686,708

2.1%

10.7%

5.6%

AUS

$696,330

0.9%

3.2%

7.1%

• Construction lending is growing strongly, reflecting ongoing build cost inflation and

• Newly built product is losing some momentum, with softer growth relative to

• National average loan: $686,708 (+2.1% q/q; +10.7% y/y).

• National average loan: $696,330 (+0.9% q/q; +3.2% y/y).

• Strong annual growth across major states: QLD (+12.6%), WA (+12.6%), SA (+13.2%),

• QLD ($754k) and NSW ($769k) remain the highest major markets.

demand for new housing supply.

NSW (+11.0%).

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

construction and established markets.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

43

Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Value of New Loan Commitments for Established Dwellings

Value of New Loan Commitments for Residential Land

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

$880,570

5.9%

8.4%

4.7%

NSW

$524,505

4.5%

7.0%

6.3%

VIC

$676,458

5.1%

7.2%

2.2%

VIC

$405,212

3.8%

9.1%

5.3%

QLD

$741,468

8.0%

16.2%

12.6%

QLD

$443,505

5.6%

21.7%

10.4%

SA

$669,239

7.4%

13.9%

11.9%

SA

$343,977

6.2%

18.4%

12.8%

WA

$711,767

11.2%

17.3%

14.3%

WA

$415,688

5.0%

18.2%

11.8%

TAS

$497,778

4.0%

6.4%

2.3%

TAS

$249,315

10.4%

-4.8%

1.9%

NT

$502,982

8.1%

10.9%

5.2%

NT

$265,753

-17.3%

5.8%

0.2%

ACT

$654,290

4.5%

-0.7%

1.4%

ACT

$543,590

13.0%

-14.2%

5.3%

AUS

$744,915

6.9%

11.0%

7.2%

AUS

$431,093

5.1%

13.5%

7.5%

• Established housing is attracting the largest loans and strongest growth, highlighting

• Land is the key affordability lever, with strong growth highlighting continued demand for

• National average loan: $744,915 (+6.9% q/q; +11.0% y/y)

• National average loan: $431,093 (+5.1% q/q; +13.5% y/y).

ongoing competition for limited existing supply.

— highest across all major segments.

• Strong growth in WA (+17.3%), QLD (+16.2%), SA (+13.9%).

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

entry-level product.

• Strong growth in QLD (+21.7%), SA (+18.4%), WA (+18.2%).

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

44

Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Value of New Loan Commitments for Alterations & Additions

Value of New Loan Commitments - Total

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

$268,947

6.6%

13.0%

9.3%

NSW

$756,208

5.6%

6.8%

4.3%

VIC

$236,842

15.4%

19.8%

7.0%

VIC

$606,498

4.4%

6.8%

4.3%

QLD

$233,861

-2.0%

14.9%

11.6%

QLD

$619,330

7.4%

14.7%

11.8%

SA

$201,199

0.0%

6.9%

11.1%

SA

$555,510

8.7%

13.9%

11.5%

WA

$203,947

6.7%

20.1%

24.8%

WA

$573,840

7.6%

12.0%

10.3%

TAS

$183,942

-8.0%

18.3%

3.0%

TAS

$435,738

6.1%

5.2%

4.5%

NT

$168,571

13.3%

49.3%

19.9%

NT

$444,810

6.3%

6.8%

4.6%

ACT

$194,574

-7.2%

-19.2%

-2.0%

ACT

$614,806

7.5%

0.0%

2.8%

AUS

$237,242

4.5%

15.0%

10.1%

AUS

$637,422

6.3%

9.6%

7.5%

• Renovation lending is growing strongly, suggesting households are upgrading in place

rather than transacting.

• National average loan: $237,242 (+4.5% q/q; +15.0% y/y) — smallest loan size segment.

• Borrowing is shifting toward established housing and land, with loan sizes rising

fastest in more affordable states, highlighting persistent supply constraints and affordability pressures.

• Strong growth in WA (+20.1%), VIC (+19.8%), QLD (+14.9%).

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

45

Owner Occupier vs. Investor Activity Owner Occupier Loans

Investor Loans

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

21,848

21.3%

22.1%

12.0%

NSW

17,210

11.5%

29.1%

23.2%

VIC

18,872

17.7%

16.4%

10.3%

VIC

9,718

16.4%

40.8%

15.4%

QLD

14,853

16.9%

20.5%

16.4%

QLD

9,952

13.2%

31.8%

28.0%

SA

3,947

19.6%

14.5%

12.7%

SA

2,570

9.8%

22.4%

25.9%

WA

7,447

20.0%

15.9%

13.4%

WA

4,659

19.0%

30.4%

34.8%

TAS

906

10.0%

20.9%

7.5%

TAS

433

21.1%

73.2%

23.5%

NT

351

25.4%

19.5%

7.5%

NT

256

1.6%

39.3%

41.7%

ACT

1,553

20.4%

12.9%

6.4%

ACT

605

-1.8%

12.8%

-1.2%

AUS

69,777

19.0%

18.8%

12.4%

AUS

45,402

13.3%

31.9%

23.0%

Owner-occupier demand has rebounded strongly, with broad-based growth indicating improving confidence and borrowing capacity.

Investor lending is accelerating rapidly, outpacing owner-occupiers and signalling a clear shift toward investor-led market activity.

• 69,777 loans nationally (+19.0% q/q; +18.8% y/y), well above the

• 45,402 loans nationally (+13.3% q/q; +31.9% y/y) — fastest growing segment.

3-year average (+12.4%).

• Strong growth across all major states, led by NSW (+22.1% y/y) and QLD (+20.5% y/y).

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

• Strong growth in VIC (+40.8% y/y), QLD (+31.8% y/y) and NSW (+29.1% y/y).

• Largest markets: NSW (17,210), QLD (9,952) and VIC (9,718).

40% 46

30%

Owner Occupier vs. Investor Split 20%

10% 0%

NSW

VIC

• Short-term: Lending has tilted back toward owner

occupiers.

• Long-term: Investor activity has strengthened, particularly

in NSW, WA and NT, driving a more balanced national lending profile.

• Quarter-on-quarter (Dec-25 vs Sep-25) saw a broad

uplift across most states, led by:

• NT (+5pp) and ACT (+4pp).

QLD

Owner Occupier Share of Loan Value

SA

WA

Dec-25

NT

ACT

Australia

Dec-24

80%

75% 70%

70% 60%

• Moderate increases across NSW (+2pp), SA (+2pp), QLD

50%

• VIC remained stable (66%), while TAS declined (-2pp).

40%

(+1pp), WA (+1pp).

TAS

66% 57% 56%

62% 60%

62% 61%

64% 62%

QLD

SA

WA

72%72%

68% 63% 61%

62% 58%

30% 20% 10% 0%

NSW

VIC

Dec-25

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Dec-24

TAS

NT

ACT

Australia

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

2,000 1,500

47

1,000

Business Lending

500

Nov-2025

Dec-2025

Oct-2025

Nov-2025

Oct-2025

Sep-2025

Aug-2025

Jul-2025

Jun-2025

May-2025

Apr-2025

Mar-2025

Feb-2025

Jan-2025

Dec-2024

Nov-2024

Oct-2024

Sep-2024

Aug-2024

Dec-2025

Sep-2025

Aug-2025

Jul-2025

Jun-2025

May-2025

Apr-2025

Mar-2025

Feb-2025

Jan-2025

Dec-2024

Nov-2024

Oct-2024

Sep-2024

Aug-2024

Jul-2024

Jun-2024

May-2024

0 Dec-2022

pre-COVID levels (~$2,300–2,800bn range).

500

Apr-2024

• Lending has reached a new cyclical high, well above

1,000

Mar-2024

continued upward trend since 2023.

Feb-2024

• Represents a strong quarterly rebound (+13%) and

1,500

Jan-2024

$3,441.5bn in Dec-24.

Dec-2023

• $3,915.5bn in Dec-25, up from $3,460.6bn in Sep-25 and

2,000

Nov-2023

Total Lending (All Business Lending)

2,500

Oct-2023

surge in business activity.

3,000

Sep-2023

• The sharp lift in Dec-25 suggests a strong end-of-year

3,500

Aug-2023

vehicles show higher volatility but strong recent growth.

Jul-2023

• Plant & equipment dominates lending composition, while

Purchase of road vehicles

4,000

Jun-2023

marking a clear recovery phase post tightening cycle.

May-2023

• All lending categories have trended upward since 2023,

Purchase of total plant and equipment

4,500

Feb-2023

investment in plant and equipment, with vehicle lending remaining elevated but stabilising.

Total purpose including refinancing

Jan-2023

• Business lending has surged to record levels, led by strong

Jul-2024

Value of New Loan Commitments for Businesses

Jun-2024

May-2024

Apr-2024

Mar-2024

Feb-2024

Jan-2024

Dec-2023

Nov-2023

Oct-2023

Sep-2023

Aug-2023

Jun-2023

Apr-2023

Jul-2023

May-2023

Mar-2023

Apr-2023

Mar-2023

Feb-2023

Jan-2023

Dec-2022

0

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

48

Approvals

Total Aprovals

50,625

Detached Houses

29,356

Townhomes

8,813

-1.4% q/q; +5.6% y/y

-2.7% q/q; +3.5% y/y

+6.4% q/q; +17.1% y/y

• Market remains above

• Continues to represent

• Strongest growth across

2023 trough levels (37k–43k) but below COVID peak (62k in Jun-21).

• Moderate recovery

continues, but overall activity remains structurally constrained vs peak levels.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

the largest share of total activity (~58%).

• Volumes broadly

stable over the past 12–18 months.

• Detached housing

remains the core market, but growth is relatively modest.

low-density formats.

• Now accounts for ~17%

of total approvals.

• Key growth segment,

reflecting the shift toward medium density and affordabiliy driven product.

1-3 Storey Apt.

903

-41.7% q/q; +43.8% y/y

• Highly volatile, with a

sharp quarterly decline following a Sep-25 spike (1,548).

• Remains a small

component of total supply (~2%).

4+ Storey Apt.

11,553

+2.0% q/q; +1.3% y/y

• ~23% of total approvals.

• Volumes have stabilised

after a prolonged decline (2022–2023).

• High-density approvals

are stabilising, but recovery remains gradual and below historical highs.

49

Building Approvals at the State Level Detached Home Approvals by State

Townhome Approvals by State

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

5,853

-3.6%

8.3%

-3.9%

NSW

2,782

-0.8%

10.2%

-1.4%

VIC

8,217

-7.8%

-1.0%

-2.4%

VIC

2,542

-5.6%

7.7%

-4.7%

QLD

6,416

-1.4%

4.2%

6.7%

QLD

1,788

27.3%

5.7%

17.4%

SA

2,625

1.3%

-8.9%

3.0%

SA

1,028

28.3%

130.0%

29.7%

WA

5,227

4.4%

11.0%

18.6%

WA

447

-7.5%

13.2%

51.7%

TAS

597

-11.4%

-1.5%

-7.0%

TAS

24

500.0%

500.0%

-8.2%

NT

164

18.0%

100.0%

9.2%

NT

19

-45.7%

18.8%

68.1%

ACT

245

25.6%

44.1%

-3.7%

ACT

212

-6.2%

44.2%

5.6%

AUS

29,356

-2.7%

3.5%

2.3%

AUS

8,813

6.4%

17.1%

4.4%

• Detached demand remains resilient, led by WA and NSW, while VIC continues to lag.

• Townhomes are expanding across all major states, with SA and WA leading the shift

toward medium density.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

50

Building Approvals at the State Level Apartment Approvals (1-3 Storeys) by State

Apartment Approvals (4+ Storeys) by State

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

Dec-25

Qtr Ch.

Yr Ch.

3 Yr Ave.

NSW

214

-31.2%

39.0%

6.5%

NSW

4,206

1.7%

-6.6%

8.8%

VIC

252

113.6%

26.0%

36.1%

VIC

2,181

-24.0%

-49.3%

-22.0%

QLD

235

-74.8%

47.8%

34.3%

QLD

3,320

-2.8%

63.0%

14.8%

SA

76

-20.0%

216.7%

N/A

SA

153

4.8%

-3.2%

-30.7%

WA

39

69.6%

-13.3%

169.2%

WA

761

113.8%

147.1%

67.5%

TAS

6

-53.8%

N/A

44.2%

TAS

N/A

N/A

N/A

-100.0%

NT

27

N/A

N/A

N/A

NT

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

ACT

54

-5.3%

17.4%

108.0%

ACT

932

130.7%

935.6%

-5.4%

AUS

903

-41.7%

43.8%

33.0%

AUS

11,553

2.0%

1.3%

-0.7%

• Low-rise apartment activity is improving annually,

but remains highly volatile and project-driven.

• High-density recovery is uneven, with WA and QLD driving growth, while VIC remains materially constrained.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

51

Commencements

Total Commencements

51,195

+12.7% q/q; +11.51% y/y • Dwelling commencements are rebounding

nationally (+11.5% y/y), driven by a recovery in medium and high-density construction, particularly in QLD and SA.

• This positive end to 2025 is likely to be short lived

construction costs will likely spike on the back of the supply disruptions in the middle east.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Detached House Commencements

30,600

13.2% q/q and +3.2% y/y • Detached construction is stabilising, but growth

remains modest and uneven across states.

• Despite recent uplift, activity remains slightly

below the 3-year average (-0.8%).

Other Dwelling Commencements

20,595

+12.1% q/q and +26.5% y/y • This uplift is partly driven by a low base,

particularly through 2022–2023 where approvals and commencements were suppressed.

• Activity remains highly sensitive to construction

costs, feasibility and funding conditions.

• The recovery is fragile and unlikely to sustain at

current growth rates, given current market risk and impact to construction inputs.

52

Commencement Forecast Total Dwelling Commencements Forecast Total Dwelling Commencements • Total commencements forecast to increase +16.7% nationally.

• Growth is skewed toward other dwellings driving the uplift.

• The outlook is highly sensitive to global conditions, including geopolitical

tensions, supply chain disruption and construction cost volatility, which may delay or defer project delivery.

2022-24 Ave.

2025-27 Ave.

% Change

NSW

46,169

52,724

14.2%

VIC

55,383

60,855

9.9%

QLD

34,905

41,799

19.8%

SA

11,864

14,292

20.5%

WA

16,622

24,263

46.0%

TAS

2,794

2,650

-5.1%

NT

502

667

32.7%

ACT

4,172

4,036

-3.3%

AUS

172,410

201,285

16.7%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Housing Industry Association, RPM Research, Data & Insights

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

53

Commencement Forecast by Product Type Detached House Commencement Forecast

Other Dwellings (Townhomes & Apartments) Forecast

2022-24 Ave.

2025-27 Ave.

% Change

2022-24 Ave.

2025-27 Ave.

% Change

NSW

23,945

23,836

-0.5%

NSW

22,224

28,888

30.0%

VIC

34,845

35,291

1.3%

VIC

20,538

25,564

24.5%

QLD

22,260

25,690

15.4%

QLD

12,645

16,109

27.4%

SA

9,389

10,818

15.2%

SA

2,475

3,474

40.3%

WA

14,538

19,878

36.7%

WA

2,083

4,385

110.5%

TAS

2,569

2,380

-7.4%

TAS

225

270

20.0%

NT

409

494

20.8%

NT

94

173

84.6%

ACT

1,082

775

-28.4%

ACT

3,089

3,260

5.5%

AUS

109,037

119,163

9.3%

AUS

63,374

82,123

29.6%

• Moderate growth (+9.3%), led by WA, QLD and SA, while NSW and VIC remain flat • Nevertheless, detached housing is exposed to input cost volatility (materials, trades) and interest rate sensitivity, with global factors potentially constraining builder margins and slowing delivery

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

• Strong forecast growth (+29.6%), driven by a rebound from a low base and increased medium/high-density supply • This segment faces the greatest risk, with feasibility highly sensitive to: global construction cost pressures, financing conditions and capital availabilit, geopolitical uncertainty impacting materials and delivery timelines

54

Completions

Total Completions

45,329

+10.0% q/q; -0.1% y/y • The uplift is being driven by higher-density

completions, while detached housing continues to trend weaker.

• Over the medium term, completions remain

broadly flat (+0.2% vs 3-year average) — reinforcing persistent supply constraints.

Detached Houses

28,050

17,279

-1.3% q/q and -5.4% y/y

+35.2% q/q and +9.9% y/y

• Most major states are contracting:

• Strongest growth in:

• Detached housing delivery remains constrained

• The rebound is partly cyclical and coming off a

• Reflects lagged impact of higher construction

• Despite recent growth, the segment is only

NSW: -14.9% y/y, VIC: -0.3% y/y (flat), QLD: -1.9% y/y, WA: -7.7% y/y, only NT shows growth (+10.2% y/y), albeit from a small base . and below historical levels (-4.9% vs 3-yr ave.

costs, builder capacity constraints and weaker commencements through 2023–2024.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Other Dwellings (Medium/High Density)

NSW: +63.5% y/y, QLD: +12.1% y/y, TAS: +51.1% y/y. VIC and WA remain weaker (-24.0% y/y and -24.9% y/y respectively).

low base.

+3.1% above its 3-year average, suggesting no structural uplift yet.

55

Economic Outlook Michael Staedler General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

While conditions improved through 2025, momentum is expected to moderate over 2026 as inflationary pressures re-emerge, driven by global supply disruptions and rising input costs. This is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, continuing to constrain borrowing capacity and household demand.

The outlook for Australia’s economy and housing market is shifting from gradual recovery to increasing uncertainty.

Housing demand is expected to remain resilient but increasingly selective, supported by population growth and tight rental markets.

However, affordability constraints will continue to shape behaviour, reinforcing demand for smaller, more efficient and more affordable products, as well as established housing.

On the supply side, forecasts point to a recovery in commencements, particularly across medium and high-density housing. However, this recovery is highly uncertain.

Rising construction costs, labour shortages and supply chain disruptions - exacerbated by global geopolitical tensions - are expected to place renewed pressure on feasibility and delivery timelines. These risks are most acute in higherdensity projects, where margins remain tight.

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

As a result, a portion of forecast supply is unlikely to be realised, particularly in the short to medium term.

Completions are expected to remain constrained, reflecting the lagged impact of weaker commencements and ongoing delivery challenges.

Detached housing is likely to remain subdued, while higher-density delivery remains volatile.

Overall, while demand fundamentals remain strong, the supply response is likely to remain constrained, with downside risks increasing as global uncertainty intensifies.

F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au O ur Research Consultancy Services create bespoke reports crafted to your specifications, translating rich data into in-depth analysis. For a bespoke report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

56

Our Team Research, Data & Insights Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Andrew Raponi

Senior Research Manager a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au

Laurence Rao

Simon Brinkman

Rod Anderson

Peter Grant

Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au

Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au

Executive, Sales and Marketing Leadership Paul McMahon

Luke Kelly

Chief Operating Officer paul@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au

Imogene Schaefer

Michael Vilar

General Manager Marketing imogene@rpmgrp.com.au

General Manager Medium Density michaelv@rpmgrp.com.au

Greg Rankin

Clinton Trezise

Peter Neale

Tim Hyland

Managing Director QLD clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Managing Director QLD petern@rpmgrp.com.au

General Manager Communities gregr@rpmgrp.com.au

National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Business Development peter@rpmgrp.com.au

Johnathon Driessen

General Manager Communities johnathon@rpmgrp.com.au

57

Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape For detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

rpmgrp.com.au NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP