Page 1

EUR/USD ì

UTILITIES SECTOR (EU) ì

CRB INDEX ì

HSI ì

The pair has broken above its previous In October 2013, prices pushed A declining trend line is broken, The HSI index is more likely to pull high at 1.3710 and is breaking above above the upper boundary of a changing the technical picture to back to test its LT ascending trend a declining trend line. trading-range shaped between 2011 bullish. line in place since Oct 2008. & 2013.

Focus

PAGE 24

PAGE 13

PAGE 35

PAGE 16

Global Macro Outlook

March 19, 2014

index S&P 500 ì Further upside expected; Next targets at 1930 & 2030

STOXX 200 Large Cap vs Small Caps î Break below 1.55; Target at 1.1

PAGE 11

STOXX 600 above 20D & 200D Mas Challenging a support area on a short PAGE 2 term basis

VIX î Target 11; Still bearish but caution

PAGE 12

STOXX 600 SECTORS MATRIX + PAGE 3 UTILITIES ì S&P 100 vs S&P 600 Small Caps ì Measured move up ongoing; Target at Target @ 1.87; Pushed above a key 336 bearish trend line PAGE 13 PAGE 4 FTSE 100 ì S&P 500 above 20D & 200D MAs Towards 7430; Supported by a rising Overbought on a mid term basis trend line PAGE 5

PAGE 14

DOW JONES ì Target @ 18860; Supported by a long term bullish channel

NIKKEI ì Target @ 16300; ST consolidation before any upsides

NASDAQ 100 ì Target @ 3935; Supported by a bullish trend line.

HSI ì Supported by a LT rising trend line

PAGE 6

PAGE 7

S&P 500 SECTORS MATRIX + RETAILING ì Up trend; Next targets at 987 & 1046

PAGE 8

EUROSTOXX 50 ì Supported by a rising trend line; Target at 3450

PAGE 9

STOXX 600 ì Within an upward-sloping channel

PAGE 10

PAGE 15

PAGE 16

NIFTY ì Towards 7150; Broken above a key level at 6335

PAGE 17

ASX 200 ì Bullish above 5000; The RSI is backed by a rising support

PAGE 18

forex

bonds

commodities

DOLLAR INDEX î Target @ 76.7; resistance area at 84.75.

US T-Note future 10 Yr î The contract remains under pressure, target @ 121-23.

CRB INDEX ì Down trend broken; next up tragets at 321 and 331

EUR/USD ì Broke above a previous high; next target at 1.4245.

Bund ì Target @ 150.60; challenging the previous top.

WTI CRUDE OIL è Sideways trading between $85.6 and $112.2

USD/JPY ì Target @ 110.65; validated a continuation triangle.

JGB future 10 Yr ì Challenging the previous high; next target at 146.35

GOLD (SPOT) ì Recovery towards $1522 likely

PAGE 23

PAGE 24

PAGE 25

GBP/USD ì Break of a key declining trend line; target @ 1.82

PAGE 26

USD/CHF î Break of the support; next targets at 0.8550 and 0.8165.

PAGE 31

PAGE 32

PAGE 33

Australian future 10 Yr î Still under pressure, target @ 95.5

PAGE 34

PAGE 35

PAGE 36

PAGE 37

SILVER (SPOT) î The downside prevails; watch $18.20

PAGE 38

COPPER (CME) î Support broken; target $2.45

PAGE 39

PAGE 27

AUD/USD î Struck against a key resistance at 0.9715; next targets at 0.8570 and 0.8050.

PAGE 28

NZD/USD î Consolidation below a strong resistance.

analysts@tradingcentral.com PAGE 29

USD/CAD ì Target @ 1.1650 supported by a rising trend line

Hong Kong: +852 2522 3988 London: +44 (0) 203 440 7615 New York: +1 212 847 2387 Paris: +33 1 5528 8040


S&P 500: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS AS LONG AS 1560 IS SUPPORT The S&P 500 is still in an uptrend as there is a trend of higher highs and higher lows, the 100-week simple moving average is rising and maintains upward momentum. The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Daily

2


VIX: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS The weekly RSI is supported by a rising trend line but the index is capped by a declining trend line. The trend remains bearish below 22.

3


S&P 100 vs S&P 600 Small Caps: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS The ratio has broken above a key bearish trend line which has been in place since November 2008. The 50-week moving average is rising and maintains upward momentum. A further upside is expected.

4


S&P 500 above 20D & 200D MAs: Overbought on a medium-term basis

5


DOW JONES: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS AS LONG AS 14200 IS SUPPORT The index is trading within a bullish channel in progress since March 2009, the 100-week moving average is rising and maintains upward momentum.

6


NASDAQ 100: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS AS LONG AS 2860 IS SUPPORT The index is supported by a bullish trend line in progress since March 2009, the 100-week moving average is rising and maintains upward momentum. The weekly RSI is bullish but overbought.

7


S&P 500 SECTORS MATRIX + RETAILING SECTOR FOCUS The US Retailing sector is in an uptrend as there is a trend of higher highs and higher lows. The 20-week and 50-week moving averages are rising and are supporting the sector in a bullish trend. A further upside towards 1046 is expected. The aim of this Sectors Matrix is to give an overview in terms of tactical sector allocation from a purely technical point of view. For taking ‘long positions’ you would like to look into segments that combine at least one Positive and at least one Neutral rating (Absolute / Relative basis dark green/green background). For taking ‘short positions’ you would like to see at least one negative rating and at least one Neutral rating (Absolute / Relative basis - red/orange background). Other segments would be avoided (grey background). Additional information : The up arrow (↑) means that the sector is upgraded (WoW). The down arrow (↓) means that the sector is downgraded (WoW).

Negative Relative Basis vs S&P 500 Index

Neutral Relative Basis vs S&P 500 Index

Postive Relative Basis vs S&P 500 index

Negative Absolute Basis

Real Estate Telecommunication Services

Neutral Absolute Basis

Positive Absolute Basis Capital Goods Health Care Equipment & Services Media Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences Retailing Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Software & Services Transportation Banks Consumer Durables & Apparel Diversified Financials Food & Staples Retailing Materials Technology Hardware & Equipment(i)

Automobiles & Components Commercial & Professional Services Consumer Services Energy Food, Beverage & Tobacco Household & Personal Products Insurance Utilities

8


EUROSTOXX 50: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 2490 The Eurostoxx 50 is supported by an ascending trend line. Furthermore, the RSI indicator is supported by a rising trend line and prices are holding above the 50-week simple moving average.

9


STOXX 600: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 271 Prices are supported by both an ascending trend line and remain within an upward-sloping channel. Furthermore, the weekly RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

10


STOXX 200 Large Cap vs Small Caps: Mixed to bearish The ratio pushed below the previous medium-term bottom around 1.55. Positive signal for the equity market.

11


STOXX 600 above 20D & 200D Mas: Challenging a support area on a short term basis

12


STOXX 600 SECTORS MATRIX + UTILITIES SECTOR FOCUS In October 2013, prices pushed above the upper boundary of a trading-range shaped between 2011 & 2013. By pushing above 285, the pullback begun in last November is now over. The dynamic is strong as weekly Bollinger bands are sharply widening. The RSI is supported by an uptrend and broke above a horizontal resistance set at 66. The aim of this Sectors Matrix is to give an overview in terms of tactical sector allocation from a purely technical point of view. For taking ‘long positions’ you would like to look into segments that combine at least one Positive and at least one Neutral rating (Absolute / Relative basis - dark green/green background). For taking ‘short positions’ you would like to see at least one negative rating and at least one Neutral rating (Absolute / Relative basis - red/orange background). Other segments would be avoided (grey background). Additional information : The up arrow (↑) means that the sector is upgraded (WoW). The down arrow (↓) means that the sector is downgraded (WoW). Neutral Absolute Basis

Banks Chemicals Industrial Goods & Services Media (i) Technology Telecommunications

Neutral Relative Basis vs STOXX 600 Index Negative Relative Basis vs STOXX 600 Index

Positive Absolute Basis Automobiles & Parts Construction & Materials Financial Services Health Care Insurance Travel & Leisure Utilities

Postive Relative Basis vs STOXX 600 index

Negative Absolute Basis

Basic Resources (l) Personal & Household Goods

Food & Beverage Oil & Gas Retail Real Estate

13


FTSE 100: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH The index has completed its pullback towards the support threshold @ 6000 and is likely to resume its up trend. The weekly RSI is still supported by a rising trend line. The 50WMA is ascending and remains in support.

14


NIKKEI: LACKING UPSIDE MOMENTUM The index may extend its ST consolidation after the downside breakout of its LT rising support since March 2013. The weekly RSI broke down its rising trend line, and lacks upward momentum. Nevertheless, the ascending 20W & 50W moving averages suggest that the LT up trend has not yet changed.

15


HSI: CONSOLIDATION, THEN RISE The HSI index is more likely to pull back to test its LT ascending trend line in place since Oct 2008. The weekly moving averages are flat now, calling for caution. Nevertheless, as long as the rising trend line remains intact, a new bounce is still expected to 25000 at first after a ST consolidation.

16


NIFTY: SUPPORTED BY A RISING TREND LINE The index has just broken above its key resistance at 6335, which should open the path towards 7150. Besides, the rising trend line also continues to push the index higher, and the weekly RSI favours a new up move.

17


ASX 200: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS The index remains strongly supported by its key rising trend line. Both its 20W & 50W simple moving averages still act as support. There is no big change: above 5000 (a key psychological level), look for further upside towards 5980.

18


CSI 300: WATCH CLOSELY 2100 The index remains capped by a LT negative trend line, and recently pulled back to test its LT key support at 2100. The weekly RSI is mixed, but is supported by a rising trend line. In that case, we're cautious now, and keep a close eye on 2100. Only the downside breakout of this threshold would open the path towards 1800.

19


KOSPI: CONSOLIDATION, THEN RISE The index stays above its previous LT triangle pattern after the breakout. In addition, the weekly RSI lacks downward momentum. Therefore, as long as 1765 is support, look for further upsides to 2225 and 2310.

20


TAIEX: CONTINUATION OF THE BULLISH TREND The index is still supported by its ascending trend line. Moreover, the weekly RSI is heading upward, also backed by a rising trend line. In conclusion, as long as 7720 is not broken, the index is more likely to rise to 9210, and even to 9780 as possible.

21


FTSE STRAITS TIMES: LIMITED UPSIDE The index remains under pressure below a MT declining trend line, but is still supported by a horizontal level at 2930. The weekly RSI is mixed, calling for caution. To sum up, as long as 2930 is not broken, we expect a limited rebound to 3460 after a ST consolidation.

22


DOLLAR INDEX: UNDER PRESSURE The index has broken below its support and remains under pressure. The weekly RSI stands below its neutrality area. As long as 84.75 holds as resistance, next targets are set at 76.7 and 74.25.

23


EUR/USD: REBOUND The pair has broken above its previous high at 1.3710 and is breaking above a declining trend line. The weekly RSI is supported by a rising trend line and the moving averages are upward directed. Next targets are set at 1.4245 and 1.4940 in extension.

24


USD/JPY: FURTHER ADVANCE The pair has broken above a key declining trend line which has been in place since April 2009 and has validated a continuation triangle pattern. Further advance is likely above the support at 93 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) with next targets at 110.65 and 115 in extension.

25


GBP/USD: BREAKS ABOVE A DECLINING TREND LINE The pair is rebounding and has broken above a LT declining trend line in place since August 2009. Moreover, the weekly RSI is well directed and not overbought. Next targets are set at 1.7040 and 1.82 in extension.

26


USD/CHF: UNDER PRESSURE The pair has broken below its support and should face further weakness as the weekly RSI has broken below a rising trend line. Then, as long as 0.9950 holds as a resistance, next targets are set at 0.8550 and 0.8165.

27


AUD/USD: UNDER PRESSURE The pair has struck against its strong resistance at 0.9715 and remains under pressure as the weekly RSI remains capped by a declining trend line. Next targets are set at 0.8570 and 0.8050 in extension.

28


NZD/USD: KEY RESISTANCE AT 0.88. The pair is rebounding but remains below its 0.88 strong resistance. As long as 0.88 is not surpassed, a return to 0.7375 can be expected.

29


USD/CAD: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1.0175 The pair is supported by a key rising trend line drawn from September 2012 and has validated a bullish flag. The weekly RSI is well directed and not overbought. Further advance is therefore likely towards 1.1250 and 1.1650 in extension.

30


US T-Note future 10 Yr: UNDER PRESSURE The contract has validated a rising wedge and has broken below a rising trend line in place since June 2007. The weekly RSI stands around its neutrality area. As long as 130 holds as a resistance, next targets remain set @ 121-23 and @ 119-08 in extension.

31


Bund: ABOVE A STRONG SUPPORT AT 134.25 The contract has rebounded above its support at 134.25 and is challenging its previous top. The weekly RSI is well directed and not overbought. Further advance is likely above 134.25 with a first target @ 145.30 and a second one at 150.60.

32


JGB future 10 Yr: CHALLENGING ITS PREVIOUS HIGH The contract is on the upside and is challenging its previous high. The 50-week moving average and the weekly RSI are well directed. Then, as long as 138.45 is support, further advance is likely with 146.35 as a first target, and 148.80 in extension.

33


Australian future 10 Yr: STILL UNDER PRESSURE The contract has struck against its intermediary resistance at 96.15 and is facing further weakness below its strong resistance (and previous high) @ 97.1. The weekly RSI is badly directed and not oversold. Further down move is therefore likely towards 95.5 at first (overlap) and 95.05 in extension (October 2011 bottom).

34


CRB INDEX: BREAKS ABOVE A DECLINING TREND LINE A declining trend line is broken, changing the technical picture to bullish. Also, the break above 296 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 321. The 20-week and 50-week moving averages are turning up. The upside prevails as long as 267 isn’t broken with resistances coming in at 321 and 331.

35


WTI CRUDE OIL: RANGE The 50-week moving average is flatening. Look for sideways trading between the $85.6 key support and $112.2 key resistance. A break of this range to either side would be considered significant and certainly worth monitoring.

36


GOLD (SPOT): REBOUND Gold prices recovered from earlier downward pressure with new support formed at $1180. A declining trend line and the 50-week moving average are cleared. The 20-week moving average is turning up. Looks for an extension of the recent upward track towards $1522.

37


SILVER (SPOT): FURTHER DOWNSIDE The descending 50-week moving average and the long term declining trend line suggest that silver prices still have potential for a decline. The weekly RSI stands below its resistance. Next supports come in @ $18.70 and @ $14.70.

38


COPPER (CME): UNDER PRESSURE Copper prices are trading in a bearish channel and are breaking below a significant support at $3.00 (new 3-year low). Furthermore, the 20-week and 50-week moving averages are descending. As long as $3.50 isn’t broken, copper prices remain under pressure with next most likely supports coming in at $2.72 and $2.45 in extension.

39


contact

Email tel.

analysts@tradingcentral.com

(+33) 1 5528 8040

TRADING Central SA

TRADING Central Asia Ltd

TRADING Central International Ltd

TRADING Central Americas, Inc

11 bis rue Scribe

60 Wyndham Street, 2003B

36 Old Jewry

1150 6th Ave - 6th Floor

F - 75009 Paris

Central, Hong Kong

London EC2R 8DD

New York, NY 10036

Tel. (+33) 1 5528 8040

Tel. +852 2522 3988

Tel. +44 (0) 203 440 7615

Tel. (1) 212 847 2387

Fax. (+33) 1 5528 8049

Fax. +852 3015 5851

Fax. (+33) 1 5528 8049

Fax. (1) 646 861 4896

Copyright TRADING CENTRAL ® The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects TRADING Central current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable. Services in the U.S. are offered through TRADING Central Americas, Inc. TRADING Central is not registered in France as an Investment Services Provider but complies with the following rules and directives, including: - General Regulation Handbook of the AMF, Book III, Title III, Chapter VII «Investment Analysts Not Associated with an Investment Services Provider» - EU Commission Directive 2006/73 dated 10 August 2006, Articles 24 and 25 - EU Commission Directive 2004/39 dated 21 April 2004 - EU Commission Directive 2003/125 dated 22 December 2003

Global outlook 20140319  

EUR/USD The pair has broken above its previous high at 1.3710 and is breaking above a declining trend line. UTILITIES SECTOR (EU) In Octob...

Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you