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Secto or Fo ocuss: Maarinee Po owerr 3 December 2007 E Lloy yd, CEO and d Founder, Venture Bu usiness Res search By Estelle By Thomas T Ramsson, Cle eanTech An nalyst, Ventture Busine ess Researc ch Com mpanies usiing the mottion of the ocean to generate ele ectricity are e attracting g growing in nterest from m inve estors and power utilitties looking g for the ne ext long-terrm play in renewable r e energy. Th he UK Dep partment off Trade and d Industry (DTI) ( has fo orecast tha at wave pow wer could g generate 35 5 TWh per year y by 2025, 2 approximately 20% 2 of the e UK’s electricity dema and.

Wave e and tidal stream res sources are

unlimited, pred dictable and reliable when w compared to inte ermittent re esources lik ke wind & solar. s From m an plementatio on perspective, the ma arine powerr industry also a uses siimilar techn nologies to the oil and d gas imp indu ustry and has h access to t a large pool p of engineers who can apply their skills to installin ng marine power p generators. Ho owever, the e sector fac ces significa ant obstacle es including g establishiing grid con nnections to t ay offshore energy to large reside ential hubs where there is high energy e cons sumption. To T date rela tech hnologies have h been tested t and produced encouraging e g results. However, H will these tec chnologies move bey yond the ex xperimental stage and feed energ gy into the grid on a la arge scale? ? The e Major Pla ayers The e wave and tidal projects in opera ation are sttill in their early days and techno ologies are still being testted with no known large scale co ommercial installation feeding intto the grid. However, various oce ean, tida al, and wave energy devices have e undergon ne extensive R&D and testing thrroughout th he world an nd qua asi-commerrcial projectts in partne ership with local utilitie es or otherr key stakeh holders are e currently ope erating. The table in Figure F 1 pro ovides an overview o of the compa anies curren ntly developing wave and tida al projects. This list ha as been com mpiled using publicly available a information a as well as interviews i w with com mpanies’ CE EOs and CFO Os. Among the ninety y companies listed in table t 1, 20 companies s have received a co ombined total $130 million m of venture capital funding to date.

O One of the m most advan nced develo opers

in th he sector is s Pelamis, a Scottish wave w energ gy develope er, with pro oject sites u under development in Porttugal and Scotland. S Pe elamis has received th he bulk of VC V investm ment with $6 68 million raised r to da ate. In partnership p with a con nsortium led d by Grupo o Enersis, a renewable e energy group in Porttugal, Pelam mis has installed a 2.25MW project p off the t north co oast of Porttugal. Cons struction off the 2.25 MW M array starrted in Janu uary 2006, followed in n March 200 07 by the shipment s off three Pela amis device es from its facttory in Scottland to the e site off Po ortugal’s no orth-west co oast. Grid connection c rights were e agreed with w Copy yright © 2007 7 Venture Business Researc ch Ltd. All righ hts reserved. Any A reproducttion or redistrribution of this s report without the authorization of Venture V Busine ess Research Ltd L is prohibitted. Venture Business B Research is an ind dependent research and ma arket intelligence compa any based in London, L UK.

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Enersis and the project’s first stage was completed in October 2007 generating the planned 2.25MW of power into the grid. Phase 2 of the project is expected to be completed by 2009 with the installation of a further 38 Pelamis machines bringing total production capacity to 24MW. The development of the Enersis project on this particular stretch of coastline was considered favourable because of the area’s moderate climate and deep water levels close to the shoreline, which ensures that Pelamis’ devices can be moored at around 1 km, so avoiding problems for navigation and fishing that come into play at distances beyond 5 km. The area’s well-developed infrastructure of ports and grid connections was also an advantage. Pelamis, which is planning an IPO in H1 2008, is developing several other projects in the UK and abroad. The only other known marine energy project currently feeding energy into the grid has been developed by WaveGen, a Scottish company, supplying 500kW into the national grid through its device on the Scottish island of Islay. Other more experimental projects are in the pipeline as indicated in Figure 1. Oceanlinx, an Australian company, will shortly supply 450kW of energy to the grid in New South Wales, Australia in partnership with Integral Energy, the local electricity retailer. In the UK, the Wave Hub project off the coast of North Cornwall, which was granted planning approval by the UK government in Sept. 07 expects to be feeding 20MW of electricity to the grid by 2009, enough to power 7,500 homes. The project has secured £28 million of funding and is being developed by the South West of England Regional Development Agency (RDA). Participants include Oceanlinx, Ocean Power Technologies Limited (OPT), Fred Olsen Limited and WestWave, a consortium of E.On and Ocean Prospect Limited, using the Pelamis technology. This project will serve as the UK’s first sea-based “electric-socket” to transfer marine energy to the grid. In Spain, Ocean Power Technologies, a US listed company, is developing a 1.39MW wave energy site off the North Coast in partnership with Iberdrola SA, one of Spain’s largest utility companies. And finally, Marine Current Turbines based in Bristol UK will supply 1.2MW into the local grid from its project in Northern Ireland’s Strangford Lough in partnership with EDF Energy. The company raised £7.5 million from venture capitalists in June 2007 and concludes our list of the most advanced experimental projects in the sector. The rest are in the R&D, testing and permitting stage but are nonetheless significant. For example Finavera Renewables, based in Vancouver BC, received a preliminary permit from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, to site a proposed 100MW wave farm in Coos County, Oregon. The Current Environment Public sector support has created a positive environment for marine energy technology development. In the UK, the Marine Renewables Deployment Fund (MRDF) government program, supported by the Department for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform distributes up to £5 million in capital grants to assist UK marine tech companies. This is in addition to £100 per MWh of revenue support for a maximum of seven years after commissioning. Total funding for each project is capped at £9 million. Copyright © 2007 Venture Business Research Ltd. All rights reserved. Any reproduction or redistribution of this report without the authorization of Venture Business Research Ltd is prohibited. Venture Business Research is an independent research and market intelligence company based in London, UK.

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In addition, the UK’s Renewables Obligation (‘RO’) government scheme provides a market-based approach to incentivise the growth of renewable energy projects. The scheme requires that in 2007/ 2008 licensed electricity utilities must source 7.9% of their electricity supplies from renewable energy sources (10% by 2010 and 20% by 2020). The RO is an artificial market – here’s how it works. Every renewable energy supplier (biomass, wave-power, wind-power, solar-power, tidal-power, landfill gas etc.) receives 1 ROC per MW they produce from the UK’s government’s Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem). Utilities purchase electricity from the renewable suppliers and for each MW they buy, one of the ROCs is passed (or sold) to them. At the end of each calendar year, the utility must prove to Ofgem that it has collected the required number of ROCs (which must correspond to the percentage of renewable energy a utility must supply to its consumers – 7.9% currently as previously mentioned). In the event that it fails to provide the required number of ROCs, the utility can meet its obligation in three ways: (i) develop its own renewable energy generation capacity, (i) buy the left-over ROCs from renewable energy producers who have not passed on or sold all their allocated ROCs or (ii) in lieu of purchasing ROCS, pay into a buy-out fund administered by Ofgem. This ‘carrot and stick’ incentive has created a favourable environment for renewable energy producers in the UK. When the renewable generator sells electricity to the supplier it is common, though not necessary, to sell the ROC too. Since the ROC can save the supplier from having to pay a fine it is a valuable currency, which in October 07 traded at £49 per ROC. Thus the price charged for the ROCs by the renewable energy suppliers is a new source of income which has been artificially created. This new income is far from insignificant: if we take the example of a 25MW wave farm somewhere in England, the total annual output would be 65,700MWh [25 x 8760 (hours in a year) x 0.3 (load factor)]. The annual revenue from selling the electricity would be £1.3 million (assuming rate of £20 per MWh). The total annual revenue generated by selling the ROCs would be £3.2 million. (Clearly, somebody has to pay for the RO system, and the answer is that it is the electricity consumer). This back-of-the-envelope analysis demonstrates the significant support the ROC scheme has provided to the renewable energy sector in the UK so far. Proposed changes to the RO scheme could provide even stronger incentives to the marine power industry in future. Currently one ROC represents one MWh of renewable electricity. The proposed revised scheme will assign different ROC values to different technologies. For example, wave and tidal power producers will receive 2 ROCs, compared to 1.5 ROCs for an off-shore wind developer and only 1 ROC for on-shore wind farm. The proposed changes have not been approved yet and are still being reviewed. At a seminar organised by Venture Business Research in London on 29 Nov., the UK’s State Minister for Environment, Phil Woolas, indicated that the proposed changes to the ROC scheme will be published in the Energy Bill, during the summer of 2008 and enacted in April 2009. Should the proposed changes be approved, the revenue generated from selling the ROCs in the example above would double to £6.4 million. In the proposed reform, we have found no evidence that the number of ROCs allocated will be capped. Elsewhere, similar incentives are popping up on the marine power map. In Scotland, the Marine Supply Obligation (‘MSO’) is an equivalent scheme to the RO in the UK, whereby Scottish electricity suppliers Copyright © 2007 Venture Business Research Ltd. All rights reserved. Any reproduction or redistribution of this report without the authorization of Venture Business Research Ltd is prohibited. Venture Business Research is an independent research and market intelligence company based in London, UK.

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are required to source a small percentage of wave or tidal electricity. In addition the Scottish Government has awarded £13 million to nine marine energy companies in February 2007 to kick-start the installation of devices at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) in the Orkney Islands of Scotland. Outside of the UK, countries have developed alternatives to the RO. For example the United States developed the Renewables Portfolio Standard (‘RPS’) in the mid-nineties. The RPS requires utilities to source a percentage of their electricity supply from renewable sources. The scheme is very similar to the UK’s RO initiative: US electricity suppliers must obtain Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) creating a market based system where one REC is equivalent to one MWh. Each state determines its own renewable energy target to attain by 2020 which currently ranges from 19% in Delaware to 33% for California. As of Feb 2007, 21 US states had established RPS targets1. The value of RECs varies wildly from state to state from $52 per REC in Massachusetts to $3 per REC in Texas in 2007. The US government also recently authorised $50 million grants for marine energy research over the next five years.

Finally, in 2007 18 EU countries operate using a feed-in tariff scheme. Feed-in tariffs offer a long-term fixed price payment to renewable energy producers feeding into the grid. This creates a strong incentive to invest in renewable energy projects given that the price is guaranteed over a fixed (longish) period of time. A range of feed-in tariffs are offered depending on the technology utilised, with the less developed technologies such as wave and tidal often being given higher subsidies per kWh. For example, Portugal has established a feed-in tariff of EUR0.225 per kWh for the first 5MW of installed wave power production capacity. Challenges Despite the incentives provided by the public sector programs above, the upfront installation costs for marine technologies are significant. One venture capitalist we interviewed during our research thought that any serious wave project would cost a minimum of £50 million in upfront capex before generating its first MW of power.

The recent example of the 2.25MW site built by Pelamis which is estimated to 2

have cost EUR8 million implies an installed cost of EUR3.5 million per MW (about 3.5x the current cost of installed wind turbines). Comparatively, Pelamis’ 3MW Orkney Islands site is estimated to cost EUR14 million3 translating into installation costs of approximately EUR4.6 million per MW and reflecting the way costs vary by site depending on specific issues.

                                                             1

 “The Debate over Fixed Price Incentives for Renewable Electricity in Europe and the United States: Fallout and Future Directions”  – Heinrich Boll Foundation, Feb 2007  2

 “Progress on wave power development” ‐ Scottish Government Press Release 30/8/2006 

3

 “Iberdrola to build world’s largest wave energy unit in Scotland” – Iberdrola Press Release 28/9/2007 

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Overall, the limited data from demonstration projects results in wildly varying estimates of production cost per kWh. The lowest-cost group of offshore wave energy converters ranges from 12p/kWh to 44p/kWh, with central estimates in the range of 22p/kWh to 25p/kWh4. Clearly the above figures will reduce as these projects scale up. Interviewed in a recent press article, Max Carcas, Pelamis’ business development director, said the company expects to improve efficiency once the system is operating: "Typically costs fall by some 15% for each doubling in installed capacity." Adding to the cost requirement is the lack of grid infrastructure near many wave and tidal sites. Costs have not yet been determined for expensive subsea cables to take the energy to shore, and long expanses of normal overhead lines are needed to bring power from remote areas, which is often the ideal location for wave and tidal stream project sites to the end consumer. A Scottish wave company conducting feasibility studies mentioned that there is 2GW of potential wave energy in Western Scotland but it would require £600 million in grid infrastructure development to bring it to the end user. Clearly this is a significant cost and it remains unclear at present whether the private or the public sector is willing to support this cost. Project planning & permitting requirements also present a significant hurdle and hamper the development of wave energy projects considerably. The UK government recently admitted that 56 wave farm projects have been in the planning process for two years. In its Planning Reform Bill published on 27 Nov 07, the UK government announced it will seek to streamline the permitting process. The proposed changes are expected to reduce the average time for decisions on major projects to below a year. The UK government is also preparing a draft Marine Bill, with publication expected in early 2008, which will address marine planning and consent processes, alongside their stated goal of streamlining processes. Despite the string of incentives, grants and other good intentions and assuming large capital and extensive planning requirements are resolved, sceptics remain cautious arguing that wave or tidal power systems will always remain subject to the wild and destructive nature of the sea. Our view Marine technology is a risky investment as investors must identify technologies with the highest potential using limited proven data. Despite the barriers mentioned above, marine power is now on the map of most countries where there is significant wave resource. In the UK, the first commercial wave plants will connect to the grid over the next few years. The Pelamis 3MW project in the Orkney Islands is projected to be on-line in 2008 and is likely to be the UK’s first commercialized plant. The Wave Hub hopes to be operational by 2010/11 and is expected to feed 20MW into the grid. Finally, as some investors have indicated, the market is now ready for another class of renewable companies to tap the market after seeing a string of wind and solar flotations in 2007. Ocean Power

                                                             4

 “Future Marine Energy” – The Carbon Trust, Jan 2006 

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Technologies (‘OPT’) tapped the market in April 2007 for $90 million on the NASDAQ. Despite a few early bumps, the stock appears to have recovered although currently it is still trading below its introductory price. According to a recent Reuters article, a flood of wave and tidal power initial public offerings (IPOs) are set to hit the London market in the coming months. The view from the venture capitalist’ seat is that although there have been no exits in the space, the sector offers more fairly priced deals compared with the wind and solar sectors, albeit with greater upfront risk. The crucial question at this stage is will the proposed changes to the RO scheme and the permitting process take place and when? If the UK government approves the changes, investors will see this as a clear indication that it is actively backing the development of marine power. Until the government sends a clearer signal many investors may prefer to sit on the sidelines rather than ride the waves of regulatory uncertainty. Figure 1 – Wave and Tidal Companies – Worldwide – Dec 2007 Company

Description

Country

Funding and Comments

Renewable Energy Holdings

Wave, wind, bioenergy developer

Australia / UK

Raised £10 million from AIM listing in 2005

Atlantis Resources Corp

Tidal technology developer

Australia Australia

n/a CVC Limited invested unknown funds in Dec. 2006. BioPower is currently undergoing proof of concept and R&D of device

BioPower Systems Pty Ltd

Wave technology developer

Oceanlinx (formerly Energetech)

Wave technology developer

Australia

Seeking to raise up to £35 million with a planned flotation on AIM

Seapower Pacific Pty Ltd

Wave technology developer

Australia

Owned by Renewable Energy Holdings

Woodshed Technologies - CleanTe Tidal technology developer Tidal technology developer Blue Energy

Australia / UK

n/a

Canada

n/a

Clean Current Power Systems

Tidal technology developer

Canada

CAD 4 million raised through private funding rounds

College of the North Atlantic

wave pump developer

Canada

n/a

New Energy Crop.

Tidal technology developer

Canada

n/a

SyncWave

Wave technology developer

Canada

CAD 15 million from unknown partners. 3 year, CAD 15 million project commenced in 2006

Waveberg Development

Wave technology developer

Canada

n/a

Wavemill Energy

Wave technology developer

Canada

n/a

Wave Star Energy ApS

Wave technology developer

Denmark

n/a

WavePlane Production

Wave technology developer

Denmark

SeWave Ltd

Wave technology developer

Faroe Islands

AW Energy

Wave technology developer

Finland

n/a Received support from the oil companies ENI and BP within the Faroese Participation Programme Undisclosed financing provided by Aura Capital in 2005. Completed proof of concept testing at EMEC & in Ecuador

Hydro-Gen

Tidal technology developer

France

n/a

Hydrohelix Energies

Tidal technology developer

France

n/a

Brandl Motor

Wave technology developer

Germany

n/a

Daedalus Informatics Ltd

Wave technology developer

Greece

n/a

Joules Energy Efficiency Services LWave technology developer Wave technology developer Ocean Energy Ltd

Ireland

£0.13 million from Carbon Trust in 2005

Ireland

n/a Raised EUR 40 million from undisclosed private equity funds in Oct-07. Received EUR 1.8 million grant from Scottish Executive

Open Hydro

Tidal technology developer

Ireland

WaveBob Limited

Wave technology developer

Ireland

EUR 3 million invested. Investors unknown

SDE

Wave technology developer

Israel

Received $2 million from government

Ponte di Archimede

Tidal technology developer

Italy

n/a

JAMSTEC

Wave technology developer

Japan

n/a

Japan

n/a

Wave Energy Technology

Wave technology developer

New Zealand

n/a

Hammerfest Strom

Tidal technology developer

Norway

n/a

Tidal Sails

Tidal technology developer

Norway

n/a

Wave Energy

Wave technology developer

Norway

Received unknown EU funding

Muroran Institute of Technology

Fred Olsen & Co./Ghent University Wave technology developer Wave technology developer Energias de Portugal

Norway / EU

n/a

Portugal

Seeking to integrate technology into caisson breakwater

Instituto Superior Tecnico

Wave technology developer

Portugal

Government funded

Martifer Energia

Wave technology developer

Portugal

n/a

Applied Technologies Company Ltd Wave technology developer Wave technology developer Sea Power International AB

Russia

R&D for full scale 10kW device underway

Sweden

n/a

Swedish Centre for Renewable ElecWave technology developer

Sweden

n/a Received £275,000 from Scottish Executive in Feb-07 and closed a £1.50 million undislcosed financing round in Oct-07. Planned grid connected demonstration project at EMEC in 2008

Aquamarine Power

Wave technology developer

UK

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Figure 1 (cont’d) Company

Description

Country

Funding and Comments

AWS Ocean Energy

Wave technology developer

UK

£2 million invested by RAB Capital in Apr-06. Received £2.1 million from Scottish Executive in Feb-07. Carbon Trust announced financial support in Sep-07. Currently verifying scale model of conceptual design

C-Wave

Wave technology developer

UK

$1 million from angel investors in 2006

Edinburgh Designs

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Edinburgh University

Wave technology developer

UK UK

University project Unknown funding and support from Carbon Trust and nPower. 1/5 scale prototype completed

Embley Energy

Wave technology developer

Greenheat Systems Limited

Tidal technology developer

UK

No funding, no business plan. Hopes to move it to New Zealand

Hydroventuri

Tidal technology developer

UK

Raised £2.5 million seed capital in Mar-05 from Porton Capital Technology

Lunar Energy

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Manchester Bobber

Wave technology developer

UK

Marine Current Turbines

Tidal technology developer

UK

£0.05 million from Carbon Trust £7.5 million Series B funding in Jun-07 from Triodos Bank, EDF Ventures, AM2 Ltd, BankInvest, and Guernsey Ltd. Over £10 million total investment.

Neptune Renewable Energy Ltd

wave and tidal developer

UK

£0.1 million from unknown investors. Currently undertaking cost analysis and design

Neptune Renewable Energy Ltd

Tidal technology developer

UK

£0.1 million from unknown investors

Ocean Navitas

Wave technology developer

UK

n/a

Ocean Wave Energy Ltd

Wave technology developer

UK

received DTI Smart award & small Carbon Trust grant

Ocean Wavemaster Ltd

Wave technology developer

UK

received DTI Smart award

ORECon

Wave technology developer

UK

Proof of concept and 1/20 scale tank testingn/a

Overberg Limited

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Pelamis Wave Powern (formerly OcWave technology developer Tidal technology developer Pulse Generation

UK

Series C round £13 million from consortium led by Emerald Technology Ventures in 2006 (1). Over £33 million total investment. IPO planned for H1 2008. 2.25mW array in Portugal deployed. 3mW device planned for Orkney Islands. 5mW device planned for Wave

UK

Undisclosed seed invetsment from Viking Fund in Jul-07. n/a

Robert Gordon University

Tidal technology developer

UK

Rugged Renewables

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Scotrenewables

Tidal technology developer

UK

£1.8 million grant from Scottish Executive

SEEWEC Consortium

Wave technology developer

UK

n/a

SMD Hydrovision

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Swanturbines Ltd.

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

The Engineering Buisiness

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Tidal Generation Limited

Tidal technology developer

UK

£0.075 million grant from South West Regional Development Agency in 2006

TidalStream

Tidal technology developer

UK

n/a

Trident Energy Ltd, Direct Thrust DeWave technology developer Wave technology developer Wave Power Group

UK

received DTI grant and Carbon Trust grant £0.073 million

UK

n/a

Wave technology developer

UK

Ocean Power Technologies

Wave technology developer

UK / USA

acquired by Voith Siemens Hydro Power Generation for an undisclosed amount NASDAQ listed on 25 Apr-07, raised $100 million. 5mW device planned for Wave Hub. 1.39mW device planned for N. Spain.

Caley Ocean Systems

pipe/cable handling

UK/Denmark

n/a

Tidal Electric

Tidal technology developer

UK/USA

n/a

Able Technologies L.L.C.

Wave technology developer

USA

Aqua Energy / Finevara Renewable Wave technology developer wave powered desalination Delbuoy

USA

Funding from in-house resources Listed on TSX market on 23 May-06. Raised CAD11.7 million to date. Successfully tested Aquabouy 2.0 on the Newport, OR coast

USA

n/a

Wavegen(Siemens)

GCK Technology

Tidal technology developer

USA

n/a

Independent Natural Resources

wave pump developer

USA

n/a

Kinetic Energy Systems

Tidal technology developer

USA

n/a

Ocean Motion International

Wave technology developer

USA

Ocean Renewable Power CompanyTidal technology developer Wave technology developer Ocean Wave Energy Company

USA

n/a $2 million angel investment, $0.3 million from Massachusetts Technology Collaborative, $0.3 million from Maine Technology Institute

USA

Self funded, small R&D grants obtained

Oceana Energy Company

Tidal technology developer

USA

n/a

UEK Corporation

Tidal technology developer

USA

n/a

Verdant Power

Tidal technology developer

USA

Raised $15 million from Tudor Investment

WindWavesAndSun

Wave technology developer

USA

n/a

Wave technology developer Wales / Denmark received EU funding EUR 2.4 million over 3 years Wave Dragon (1) Other investors include: 3i, Atmos SpA, BlackRock Investment Management, Common Capital, General Electric, Hydrogenica Partners, Impax Asset Management , Investec, New Energies Invest, Norsk Hydro, Partnership UK, Sigma Capital Group, Sustainable Performance Group, The Carbon Trust and Tudor Investment. IPO planned for H1 2008.

Source: Venture Business Research and Companies’ Press Releases Disclaimer: Venture Business Research Ltd. is an independent research company based in London, UK. The information contained in this report is derived from sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee or shall be deemed to constitute due diligence. Venture Business Research Ltd accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from the use of this document or its content. Venture Business Research does not consider itself to undertake Regulated Activities as defined in Section 22 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is not registered with the Financial Services Authority of the UK.

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