THE DRAW Let’s look at some theoretical draws. What I mean is that you are the first person to draw two cards from the 52 card deck, leaving 50 cards remaining in the deck. Of course you are not always the first to draw from a full deck, but for the purpose of illustrating a draw’s strength or weakness in these hypothetical examples, lets look at some odds and probabilities. The Monster Draw. A Low A: 48 outs = 96%

This is A low A high. This is the nut draw. There are 48 cards in the deck that can help you and only the two remaining aces can make you “hit the post”. In this instance, you have approximately a 96% chance of winning the pot. This draw illustrates why if the first card you draw is an ace, you should always play it as low. The reason is because the second ace is always high. If you see the first ace come and call it high, and the second ace comes, the second ace will also be high leading to a dead draw. As long as two aces remain, this is always the correct strategy. In other words always call an ace low, as there are more cards that can help you create a draw. If there is one ace in the deck, use your disgression. Thus for the purpose of this discussion we will ignore A high Low draws and all draws will start low. Obviously King- two is the same as two- King, so there is no need to repeat this twice. Premium Draws Remember these are hypothetical draws and the probabilities will change as cards are removed from the deck, and the only way to know your exact odds during a game are to count cards. Also take note that since a 52 card deck is not divisible by three, one card will remain at the end of a deck. So while there are 52 cards in the deck, only 51 will be in play, yet any of the 52 could be drawn from the fifty one. For the purpose as keeping this as simple as possible, all probability percentages will be based on a 52 card deck, minus the two from your draw.

Ace Low-King draw: 48 outs 96%

Two-Ace high Draw:

44 outs=88%

Two-King Draw:

40 outs=80%

Three-Ace Draw:

40 outs=80%

Good Draws In the following draws you are still a big favorite.

Ace Low-Jack Draw:

36 outs=72%

Two Queen Draw:

36 outs=72%

Three king draw:

36 outs=72%

Four Queen Draw:

36 outs=72%

East Card Ace low Ace low Two Two Three Ace low Two Three Four

West Card Ace High K Ace King Ace J Queen King Ace

Outs

West Card J Queen King Ace

Outs

Probablility 48 44 44 40 40 36 36 36 36

96% 88% 88% 80% 80% 72% 72% 72% 72%

Good Draws East Card Ace low Two Three Four

Probablility 36 36 36 36

72% 72% 72% 72%

Decent Draws These draws are calculated the same way as the prior draws, while they are good you are only a 64% favorite. East Card Ace low Two Three Four Five

West Card Ten Jack Queen King Ace

Outs

Probablility 32 32 32 32 32

64% 64% 64% 64% 64%

Coinflip Draws In these draws you are only a slight favorite (56%) to win the pot. While some of these look good, you are basically flipping a coin on your shot to win. East Card Ace low Two Three Four Five six Three

West Card Nine Ten Jack Queen King ace Jack

Outs

Probablility 28 28 28 28 28 28 28

56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56%

Sucker draws Here are the most common bad draws that will be played because they don’t look so bad. In the best of them you will be a slight dog (48%), which is essentially a coinflip, but since you’re a dog to win, these are just not worth playing ever. While your chances are not that much worse of the slight favorite “coinflip” draws, you are still not favored to win and a coinflip draw is not recommended as a smart play either. East Card Ace low Two Three Four Five six seven Three Four six seven eight

West Card Eight Nine Ten Jack Queen king Ace Nine Ten Queen King Ace

Outs

Probablility 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 20 20 20 20 20

48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

These are the probabilities of winning a pot when you are first to go and there are fifty cards remaining in the deck. Again this is a hypothetical situation so how do we apply these probablilities during a game? Say for example you are the sixth person to be dealt a hand. This means that you will be drawn card number 16 (the east card), card number 17

(the west card), and card number 18 as the middle card. Now we know in the perfect scenario what percent favorite you are to win the pot, but what happens when we know that 17 cards have been removed from the deck? The answer can become quickly complex, and computing a situation like this in the heat of the often high action game of Acey-Ducey is difficult for many people to do. However, unless you want to gamble without all the available information you must learn to count the cards. Mind that you do not need to count all the cards in the deck, only the ones involved in these premium draws. Remember we are gambling here, and when you gamble the point is to beat the game. You only do this by maximizing your profits. The only way to do this is to push big action when the odds are in your favor. Like a boxer you must pick a spot to devastate your opponent, not open your self up to be knocked out by a foolish move.

How to count Cards These two words together can scare people away, but do not worry. In this method of counting cards you just need to count twelve cards in the deck. The cards that we will be counting are AAAA,2222,3333,KKKK. These twelve cards are the only cards in this game that will give you a premium draw. As you can see from the charts above, the worst draw these cards will give you is 80% which is extremely strong. Remember now that since cards are leaving the deck, you can no longer rely on these theoretical odds. So before we do this you must already always know how many cards are still in the deck. Dealer Figure 7

YOU

Before we do anything we must learn how to calculate a general count.

AAA,JJJ,QQQQ,KKKK. There are 14 cards here that can crack our draw, with twenty cards left.

If you can count just these cards plus your draw you can approximate how strong your draw is. AAAA 2222 3333 QQQQKKKKAAAA, These are the cards to keep track of. Example: You have an Ace Low- Queen draw. It is your second time around in the game and you are receiving the 37th, 38th, and 39th card, leaving 13 cards in the deck. If 8 of these 20 have come, plus the 2 that are in your draw there are 10 out of the 20 of these cards of this group removed from the deck. Out of the 13 left, there could be 10 cards that will crack the draw. Now we can subtract the four theoretical deuces, and the four theoretical threes from the group because a 2 or a 3 would not hurt this draw. This would leave us with 2 cards in the deck that could hurt us and nine that could help. But what if So now This ac that of the 13 cards left in the deck, four can hurt you. In this method of approximation your worst case scenario would be that you are a 67% favorite.

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s say in this previous example we now counted Aces, deuces, threes, Queens and Kings. These are twenty cards. Say that we are in the last example, but out of the 20 cards only five have came. So there are twenty nine cards left and there are 13 in the deck that can kill you(minus 2 for your draw). Now if we had a draw of king-2 what would the correct move be. Lets say we are not even paying attention to what cards come just that they are in the group of twenty. The best case scenario would be that the cards that did come out were K,K,K, and 2,2 or 2,2,2,KK. Now your K-2 and would be a 100% favorite to win. But what if these were not the cards that came out and you just wanted to approximate your odds without counting these 20 cards. The easiest way is to first look at what cards can hurt you. KKK22AAAA are the cards that can hurt you. There are nine of them. 20 cards in the deck that can help you and 9 that can hurt you. You are almost a 69% favorite and even if you werenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t counting and you saw one king, ace, or deuce, your percentage would be higher. Lets look at another example. You have an Ace Low- Queen draw. It is your second time around in the game and you are receiving the 37th, 38th, and 39th card. After your draw there

are 13 left in the deck. Lets look at what cards can hurt us . How many have come out? If you have no idea this can do nothing to help you.

The twenty plus four card system

A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A Winners Guide to Acey Ducey by Josef Galatioto These strategies are applied to Acey-Ducey, in which each individual is dealt two cards when it is their turn and the middle card comes next. Some rules dictate that every player is dealt one card before the player to the left of the dealer is dealt the second card and then the “money card”. In this variation, depending on how many players are in the game, you will see cards come out of the deck before you draw. The former version seems to be the more common variation, however this strategy can be altered to play that way as well. Also remember that it is extremely important to call how long the game will go for before the game begins. For example, does the deck get shuffled again when the pot is completely won, or do you go through the deck more than once? Does the last person to win a pot go first on the next round or does it go clockwise as in poker? The most common way seems to be a variation of both. In any case, these rules must be disclosed before a game and it is extremely important for a player to know. Furthermore, since cards are usually dealt left, right, center in this game I have taken the liberty of calling the first card to be dealt the east card, the second card the west card, and the center card the middle or “money card”. Note that because 52 is not divisible by three you are always dealing with 51 cards after the 17th deal with one left. To keep things simple, I will be counting into a 52 card deck.

Winners guide to acey deucy

A guide to winning

Winners guide to acey deucy

A guide to winning