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Vietnam Autos Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary New locally manufactured vehicle sales in Vietnam rose 11% year on year (y-o-y) in the first five months of 2011, to reach 44,966 units, according to the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association (VAMA). Over the same period, the number of completely built units (CBUs) imported into the country rose 45.7% y-o-y, to reach 26,900 CBUs, according to a report on the Vietnews website. Taken together, this makes for a total of 71,866 new car sales so far in 2011, a trend which, if replicated over the remainder of the year, would necessitate some upward revisions to our current forecast of 118,824 units to be sold this year. Looking at the breakdown between locally manufactured and imported cars, there is a developing downward trend in new locally manufactured vehicle sales, which were down by 19% month-on-month (m-o-m) in May, at just 7,661 units. There was a particularly pronounced decline in the sale of locally manufactured commercial vehicles (down 21% m-o-m) and sport utility vehicles (down 31% m-o-m). It would appear that Vietnamese consumers are increasingly able to afford imported cars, the total value of which has increased 65.4% so far in 2011, to reach US$524mn. When imported parts are added to this total, the total value of automotive imports into Vietnam for the Jan-May 2011 period stands at US$1.34bn, up 23.7% y-o-y. Among local producers, the leading domestic automaker is now Truong Hai Auto Joint Stock Co (Thaco), which sold 2,672 cars in May, for a market share of almost 35% of locally produced vehicles. The company has sold a total of 13,001 cars over the Jan-May 2011 period, up 43% y-o-y. Thaco replaced Toyota Vietnam as the leading domestic automaker in March 2011. Looking forward, BMI is happy to maintain our 2011 new vehicle sales forecast for now, with the country still dogged by high inflation (CPI at 21% as of June 2011) and a weak currency, which may act as a demand suppressant over the balance of the year. Moreover, the car industry remains heavily taxed, with taxes reportedly accounting for some 60% of the value of a new car in Vietnam at present. However, if new car sales continue to show strength into H211, even despite these adverse macroeconomic and taxation factors, then some measure of upward revision may prove necessary. In April 2011, German automotive supplier Bosch Group opened a new plant in Vietnam for the production of push-belts, which are used for continuous variable transmissions. The EUR30mn (US$43.3mn) plant is the first push-belt facility for Bosch in South East Asia and as such is a show of confidence in a relatively underdeveloped supplier segment. It should also give Bosch the chance to be an early mover in the country and serve larger high-growth markets elsewhere in the region as it plans to export to China and Japan. In May 2011, the Vietnam Today website reported comments from the head of Thaco, Tran Ba Duong, that constant changes to domestic tax policy continue to cause problems for local automakers. As part of discussions with Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai, Tran called for consistency in tax levels, which will allow carmakers to invest for the future and prepare for the onset of competition following the slashing of import tariffs to zero by 2018. Tran also called for further government support to help develop the burgeoning local spare part industry. For his part, Deputy PM Hoang praised Thaco's recent work and also said that the government would be looking favourably on Quang Nam province's proposal to develop a new auto manufacturing centre within the Chu Lai open economic zone.

Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Vietnam Autos Industry SWOT.. 7 Vietnam Political SWOT .. 8

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Vietnam Economic SWOT ... 9 Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 10 Global Overview 11 BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry ... 11 Regional Overview 16 Business Environment Ratings 18 Table: Business Environment Ratings ' Auto Industry Asia Pacific 21 Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .. 22 Table: Vietnam ' Economic Activity ... 25 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 26 Table: Vietnam Autos Sector ' Historical Data And Forecasts ... 26 Market Overview 28 Table: New Vehicle Sales By Top 10 VAMA Members (CBUs) ... 28 Table: New Vehicle Sales By Top 10 VAMA Members (CBUs) ... 29 Industry Developments. 29 Passenger Cars . 31 Table: Vietnam Autos Sector ' Historical Data And Forecasts ... 31 Segment Developments 31 Commercial Vehicles 33 Table: Vietnam Autos Sector ' Historical Data And Forecasts ... 33 Segment Developments 33 Company Monitor BMI Favourites Feature In Nissan's ASEAN Strategy ... 35 Company Profiles .. 39 GM Daewoo (Vidamco) .. 39 Mercedes-Benz Vietnam.. 40 BMI Methodology .. 41 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 41 Automobile Industry 42 Sources ... 42

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