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Venezuela Autos Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary BMI's long-standing view that 2011 will turn out to be a positive year for the Venezuelan autos industry ' mostly on the back of the low base effects from the last three years ' is beginning to play out. New vehicle sales in Venezuela grew an impressive 18.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, leaving the cumulative H111 sales down a moderate 2.8% y-o-y, according to estimates from the Venezuelan autos chamber, Cavenez. While this makes our end-2011 forecast of a 16% y-o-y growth unattainable, we remain optimistic that growth could pick up pace during H211. Month-on-month growth is looking strong. June's sales of 11,585 units are 13.3% higher compared with May, which was itself an improvement on the 8.5% rise the previous month. Domestic vehicle production is also on a cautious recovery. June turned out to be the second consecutive month of positive double-digit production growth on a y-o-y basis, helping production levels for H111 break into positive territory, albeit with a 0.5% y-o-y rise. Given that scarcity of vehicles ' rather than demand weakness ' has been the major spoiler for vehicle sales in Venezuela, we believe that improved availability of vehicles will bolster vehicle demand recovery in the market. There are, however, serious downside risks to our optimistic forecast. On a macroeconomic level, private consumption looks weak and seems to have been mostly propped up by government consumption. Given that carmakers' operations in the past have been disrupted by insufficient supply of dollars or parts imports, there is a strong possibility that production could be hampered in the short and medium term. For now, we expect carmakers to increase production over 7% y-o-y in 2011, which we believe will be followed by average annual growth of 9% y-o-y for the remainder of our forecast period, taking 2015 output to 158,525 units, still below pre-crisis levels. The trend is likely to receive some support from the commitments made by new players entering the market. In May 2011, Chery Automobile signed a cooperative agreement with China Development Bank and the Venezuelan government with the view to setting up a manufacturing facility in the country as the Chinese carmaker seeks to increase its presence in Latin America. Meanwhile, in June, the Irani- Venezuelan joint car company Venirauto revealed it is planning to raise its annual production capacity from 2,200 units to 16,000 units. Despite these developments, Venezuela continues to significantly underperform BMI's Risk-Reward Ratings for the autos industry in the Americas. Indeed, the government's nationalisation drive has not only hindered new private investment in the auto industry, but has also undermined existing business activity in the country.

Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Venezuela Auto Industry SWOT .... 6 Venezuela Political SWOT Analysis ...... 7 Venezuela Economic SWOT Analysis ... 8 Venezuela Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9 Global Overview .... 10 BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry ....... 10 Regional Overview 15

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Business Environment Ratings .... 18 Table: BMI Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas...... 21 Macroeconomic Forecast ...... 22 Table: Venezuela ' Economic Activity 24 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 25 Table: Venezuela Auto Sales By Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts 25 Production ....... 26 Table: Venezuela Auto Production By Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts ....... 27 Trade ....... 27 Table: Venezuela Auto Trade ' Historical Data And Forecasts .. 28 Table: Venezuela's Auto Sector ' Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (CBUs unless otherwise stated).. 29 Table: Venezuela Vehicle Production, 2009-2010 ...... 30 Table: Venezuela Vehicle Sales, 2010 . 30 Industry News .. 31 Passenger Cars ..... 33 Table: Venezuela Passenger Car Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts ...... 33 Company News 33 Commercial Vehicles .... 36 Table: Venezuela Commercial Vehicle Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts ...... 36 Light Commercial Vehicles . 37 Table: Venezuela ' Light Commercial Vehicle Registrations By Manufacturer, 2003-2008 (CBUs) .. 37 Heavy Commercial Vehicles .... 37 Table: Venezuela ' Heavy Commercial Vehicle Registrations By Manufacturer, 2007-2008 (CBUs) . 38 Suppliers 39 Company Monitor .. 40 Company Profiles .. 42 General Motors Company (GM) . 42 Ford Motor . 42 Toyota Motor ...... 43 Country Snapshot: Venezuela Demographic Data ..... 44 Section 1: Population . 44 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 44 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 45 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 45 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 45 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 45 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 46 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 46 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 46 BMI Methodology .. 47 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 47 Sources ....... 48

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Venezuela Autos Report Q4 2011  

BMI's long-standing view that 2011 will turn out to be a positive year for the Venezuelan autos industry ' mostly on the back of the low bas...

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