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Ukraine Autos Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary The global financial crisis resulted in a catastrophic crisis in Ukraine auto sector culminating in a collapse of annual car production from over 400,000 units in 2008 to less than 70,000 the following year. Although in 2010 there was 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) rebound it must be judged against the comparatively low historic sales of the previous year. BMI expects that the sector will continue to recover in 2011 and we forecast a y-o-y production increase of 37%, to 113,175 units. We expect a similar pattern of growth will continue over the forecast period with growth of 33% in 2012 and levels in excess of 22% annually up to 2015. BMI believes the crisis in Ukraine's auto sector has precipitated a sea change in the industry from one where locally based car makers sought growth within the domestic market. We expect this demand will remain muted until at least 2013. As a result we expect the country's auto sector to look increasingly at export markets for growth. The free trade agreements within the CIS region make those states the most likely target market particularly Russia. Russia currently accounts for 95% of the Ukraine's car exports and with double-digit y-o-y growth in Russian car sales expected annually over the next few years, the market represents a significant opportunity for the Ukrainian auto sector. This opportunity has already been realised and grasped by China's Lifan Car, which announced it will assemble vehicles with a minimum composition of 51% Ukrainian components specifically to exports to the Russian market. On the other side of the free trade coin there is increasing concern among car manufacturers about the effect of a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU. The domestic car industry is anxious about further exposure to foreign competition, fears that appear to be justified considering that in May AvtoVAZ was, for the first time, toppled from its 40 year reign at the top of the Ukraine car ratings by Hyundai Motor. The signs are that an increasingly affluent domestic market, encouraged by the increasing availability of cheaper car loans are more likely to be attracted to purchase an internationally recognised branded vehicles. In the face of competition, the national association of car manufacturers, Ukrautoprom, has lobbied the government to introduce import quotas. BMI believes the concerns reflect the underlying weaknesses of Ukraine's auto manufacturing sector. The lack of overseas financial investment, production practices and technical expertise have resulted in an industry unable to compete at an international level. Rather than rely on out dated protectionist practices the industry should look to Renault's joint venture with local bus producer L'vivs'ky Avtobusnyi Zavod (LAZ) to manufacture minibuses and possibly ambulances as a model for the future.

Table of Content Executive Summary ..................... 5 SWOT Analysis ...... 6 Ukraine Auto Industry SWOT .............. 6 Political SWOT ............. 7 Economic SWOT ........... 8 Business Environment SWOT ............... 9 Regional Overview EU Visualises An Oil-Free Future, But Will The Industry Accept It' ................. 10 Table: EU Action Plan For Electric Vehicles ........... 12 Industry Forecast Scenario ........ 13 Production And Sales .. 13

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Ukraine Vehicle Production ' Historical Data & Forecasts . 13 Table: Ukraine Vehicle Sales ' Historical Data & Forecasts ........... 14 Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ... 17 Competitive Landscape ............. 20 Market Overview ........ 20 WTO Accession And The Car Market 23 'Grey' Market ............. 24 Manufacturing ............ 25 Commercial Vehicles .. 27 Company Monitor MAN 31 MAN: SWOT ............... 34 Company Profiles 35 AvtoKrAZ .................... 35 AvtoZAZ ...................... 36 Eurocar 38 Luckiy Avtomobilniy Zavod (LuAZ) ... 39 Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data ..................... 40 Section 1: Population .. 40 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ............. 40 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ............ 41 Section 2: Education And Healthcare 41 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............ 41 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ...... 41 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ....... 42 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ............... 42 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ..... 42 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ............... 43 BMI Methodology 44 How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ............... 44 Sources 45

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Ukraine Autos Report Q3 2011