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Turkey Autos Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary At the beginning of the year BMI made a forecast, based on our belief in the underlying strength of consumer demand, stating that Turkish vehicle sales would grow 16.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, to 921,700 units. May's sales figures, however, have showed the market has exceeded even our optimistic predictions. According to figures released by the Automotive Distributors' Association (ODD), vehicle sales reached record levels. Sales of cars and light vehicles were up 35.52% y-o-y, totalling 339,650 units. A five-month like-for-like comparison with 2010 showed an even more significant increase of 56.16%. Rises in vehicle sales were not confined to passenger cars and light vehicles, Mercedes-Benz T端rk, the Turkish subsidiary of German automaker Mercedes-Benz reported an increase in sales of 181% y-o-y in Q111. As a result, we have revised our forecasts for 2011 and now expect total vehicle sales for the year of nearly 1.1mn, signalling a complete recovery from the 26% y-o-y production fall in 2009 precipitated by the global financial crisis. Turkey's strength in the auto industry has been built on robust domestic demand, which has driven investment in the industry by major international auto manufacturers. Attracted by government incentives, a low-cost/highly skilled workforce, favourable exchange rate and key positioning in one of the most important emerging market economies, foreign companies are pouring investment into the development of Turkey's auto industry. In the first half of the year, Cummins, Michelin, Mercedes and Thyssen Krupp have all made significant investments in the development of production facilities. Nissan Motor and BMW are also actively considering opening major new plants. BMI believes that international auto manufacturers will increasingly use Turkey as a production base to target export sales. Figures from Turkey's Automotive Manufacturers' Association (OSD) reported an increase of auto exports of 20% in 2010, to 754,469 units, to a value of US$15.9bn. We expect to see a trend of diversification in export destinations with companies looking to target sales at nearby emerging market countries where there is considerably more demand potential for new auto sales than in developed markets. Previously, BMI has held a prevailing view that one of the weaknesses of the Turkish automotive industry was that it lacked a strong domestic supplier network. However, there are signs that these shortcomings are being addressed. The invitation of up to 10 Turkish parts manufacturers to participate in the development of a highly integrated auto cluster being established in the Russian region of Tartarstan will give Turkish companies exposure to an international market. The investment by local company Yigit Aku in a new US$1mn car battery research and development centre and the ambitious targets of the Association of Automotive Parts and Components Manufacturers (TAYSAD) for the establishment of another 50 research centres within two years is another promising development. BMI believes that many indicators point to a structural shift within the Turkish auto sector that indicate that Turkey is on the verge of a breakthrough in its goal of becoming one of the top auto producers not just in Europe but globally.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 7 Turkey Auto Industry SWOT .. 7 Turkey Political SWOT 8 Turkey Economic SWOT ... 9 Turkey Business Environment SWOT .... 9

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Global Overview 10 BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry ... 10 Regional Overview . 15 EU Visualises An Oil-Free Future, But Will The Industry Accept It' .... 15 Table: EU Action Plan For Electric Vehicles .... 17 Table: Europe ' Top Automotive Suppliers Sales By Region (US$mn) 2010 ... 18 Business Environment Ratings . 19 Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 23 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 24 Table: Turkey Auto Production ' Historical Data And Forecasts .... 24 Trade 29 Table: Turkey Auto Trade ' Historical Data And Forecasts.. 29 Macroeconomic Forecast . 31 Turkey ' Economic Activity . 33 Competitive Landscape ... 34 Latest Developments .. 37 Government Policy .... 42 Suppliers 44 Company Monitor ... 46 MAN.. 46 MAN: SWOT .... 49 Company Profiles ... 50 Ford Otosan 50 Hyundai Assan . 51 Oyak Renault ... 52 Toyota Motor ... 53 T端rk Otomobil Fabrikasi 54 Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data . 55 Section 1: Population . 55 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 55 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 56 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 56 Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 56 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 56 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 57 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 57 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 57 BMI Methodology ... 58 How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ... 58 Sources .. 59

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Turkey Autos Report Q3 2011