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Taiwan Power Report 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary The new Taiwan Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will rise from 212TWh in 2010 to 355TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 5.3% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply surplus rising from the estimated 11.5TWh level seen in 2010 to 13.4TWh by 2020, assuming 5.1% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Taiwanese power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 223TWh, having recovered somewhat from the depressed 2009 level of 215TWh. BMI is forecasting an average 5.3% annual increase to 289TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to increase by an average 6.1% per annum during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to slow later in the decade. Taiwan's gas consumption will increase to 14mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2020 and 16mn tpa by 2025, up 55% from 9.02mn tpa in 2009, according to an official from Taiwan's Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. The main consumers are the eight power generators, which account for a combined total of 78.4%. Taipower currently uses gas for 5% of its power generation needs, but this would increase by 10% within the next three years, a company official said. The combined cycle gas turbine at Ta Tan, which currently consumes 75% of regasified Qatari LNG, will be expanded further, doubling its gas requirements while some coal-fired generators will be shut down. Taipower plans to upgrade six nuclear reactors that first came on line between 1978 and 1985, reported World Nuclear News in January 2010. The company has plans to build three additional reactors in Taiwan by 2025, which includes two reactors currently under construction at Lungmen. The existing six reactors would be revamped to substantially expand capacity and improve efficiency. The country's estimated 40TWh of nuclear supply in 2010 is forecast to reach 44TWh by 2015. Taiwan is ranked second from last, ahead only of Cambodia, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the reasonable size of the market, poor competitive landscape, limited growth potential and reasonable country risk profile. The country may, over the longer term, be able to challenge Singapore above it, while Cambodia could eventually mount a challenge from below.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 6 Taiwan Power SWOT... 6 Global Industry Overview .. 7 Global Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) .. 7 Global Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh) .... 8 Global Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) . 9 Regional Industry Overview .. 11 Regional Table: Asia Total Generation Data (TWh).... 11 Regional Table: Asia Total Consumption Data (TWh) 12 Regional Table: Asia Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) ... 14 Nuclear Power In Asia .... 15

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Market Overview 16 Regulation/Competition .. 16 Power Transmission .. 16 Business Environment Ratings . 17 Asia Pacific Region .... 17 Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings .. 17 Taiwan Power Rating 18 Rewards . 18 Risks . 18 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 19 Table: Taiwan Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 19 Table: Taiwan Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) 21 Table: Taiwan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 23 Table: Taiwan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 23 Table: Taiwan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 23 Table: Taiwan Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 23 Table: Taiwan Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 24 Table: Taiwan Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh).. 24 Taiwan Power Outlook ... 25 Generation .. 25 Gas-fired 26 Oil-fired . 26 Coal-fired ... 26 Nuclear Energy 26 Hydro-electric .. 26 Renewable Energy 27 Transmission .... 28 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 28 Competitive Landscape ... 30 Executive Summary .... 30 Taipower ' Summary . 30 Glossary Of Terms . 31 Glossary Of Terms 31 BMI Methodology ... 32 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 32 Power Industry 32 Cross Checks ... 33 Sources .. 33

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