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Sri Lanka Power Report 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary The new Sri Lanka Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will rise from 9.6TWh in 2010 to 18.7TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 6.9% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply surplus rising from the estimated 1.6TWh level seen in 2010 to 3.2TWh by 2020, assuming 6.9% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Sri Lankan power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 11.2TWh, having grown more than 8% from the 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 7.0% annual increase to 15.7TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to increase by an annual average of 9.5% during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to slow later in the decade. The country is a prime candidate for gas-fired power generation and broader natural gas usage, but has no domestic resources, pipeline links, LNG facilities or distribution system. Tentative plans for gas imports and generation have yet to be developed into firm projects. Oil will remain a significant part of the Sri Lankan power generation mix, thanks largely to a lack of other options. It currently accounts for around61.3% of total generation, rising to a maximum of 69.0% by 2015 in spite of greater hydro expansion. We believe there will be no more than 10.8TWh of oil-fired power generation by the end of the forecast period. The estimated potential for large-scale hydro-power generation in the country is in the region of 2GW. Over two-thirds of this amount has already been harnessed and only a few new plants are planned. Power generation by hydro plants can be reduced by drought, but government policy is still encouraging private sector development of mini hydro facilities. BMI is forecasting 4.8TWh of hydro generation by 2015, accounting for 31% of total generation. Sri Lanka is ranked 13th, above only Singapore, Taiwan and Cambodia, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its small size and relatively high risk profile. It has as lender lead over Singapore, so there is some risk of being overtaken during the next few quarters. Power growth potential offsets some of the country's other weaknesses, and there is long-term scope to challenge South Korea and Hong Kong above.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 6 Sri Lanka Power SWOT .... 6 Global Industry Overview .. 7 Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 7 Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 8 Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) 9 Regional Industry Overview .. 11 Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 12 Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 13 Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)... 15 Table: Nuclear Power In Asia .. 16 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 17 Table: Sri Lanka Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh).... 17

Sri Lanka Power Report 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Sri Lanka Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) . 18 Table: Sri Lanka Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) . 20 Table: Sri Lanka Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh).... 20 Table: Sri Lanka Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) . 20 Table: Sri Lanka Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .... 20 Table: Sri Lanka Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 20 Table: Sri Lanka Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ... 21 Table: Sri Lanka Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 21 Table: Sri Lanka Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .... 22 Table: Sri Lanka Electricity Generating Capacity Data nd Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) .... 22 Table: Sri Lanka Electricity Generating Capacity Data ... 23 Sri Lanka Power Outlook 24 Generation .. 24 Gas-Fired ... 24 Oil-Fired 24 Coal-Fired .. 25 Nuclear Energy 25 Hydro-Electric . 25 Renewable Energy 25 Transmission .... 25 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 25 Competitive Landscape ... 26 CEB .. 27 Glossary Of Terms . 28 Glossary Of Terms 28 BMI Forecast Modelling ... 29 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 29 Power Industry 29 Cross Checks ... 30 Sources .. 30

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Sri Lanka Power Report 2011  

The new Sri Lanka Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will rise from 9.6TWh in 2010 to 18.7TWh by the end o...

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