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Spain Autos Report Q3 2011 Published on June 2011

Report Summary A 26% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in new vehicle sales in the first four months of 2011 has prompted BMI to downgrade its total vehicle sales forecast from a drop of 1.5% y-o-y expected last quarter to nearly a 4% y-o-y fall in 2011. We believe that high unemployment, falling real wages, a large stock of private sector debt and fiscal austerity will keep consumers focused on deleveraging rather than spending for the foreseeable future, particularly as taxes on consumption will remain high this year. From 2012 we expect both the passenger car and commercial vehicle segments to return to growth, driving the overall new vehicles market onto a growth trajectory. The market should grow an average of 3% y-o-y between 2012 and 2015, mainly coming as a result of pent-up demand over the past three to four years. Despite weak economic fundamentals and the ongoing austerity drive, the Spanish government has reaffirmed its commitment towards alternative fuel vehicles by announcing plans to provide subsidies electric vehicles (EVs) purchases in the country in May 2011. Under the scheme, the government will offer a subsidy of up to 25% of the purchase price, before tax, with a limit of EUR6,000 (US$8,520) per vehicle. Meanwhile, a 25% subsidy will also be provided on the purchase of electric buses, coaches and vans, up to a maximum of EUR15,000 (US$21,300) or EUR30,000 (US$42,600), depending on the type of vehicles. The subsidy programme comes as a part of the government's EUR590mn spending earmarked towards developing and supporting sales of EVs in the country. The government is hoping its involvement will help bring 250,000 electric and hybrid vehicles on roads nationwide by 2014. While we approve of the government's support towards environmentally friendly vehicles, we doubt if consumer demand in the country is strong enough to take advantage from the scheme. The weakness in the Spanish market and limited scope for auto production growth (expected to average 2.6% y-o-y between 2011 and 2015, according to BMI forecasts) have pushed Spain's rating in BMI's Risk-Reward ratings for the autos industry in Europe from the sixth position to the eighth position this quarter. Meanwhile, cost pressures and the need to expand into emerging markets is prompting Spanish auto suppliers to continuously streamline their operations or expand overseas. In March 2011, Cie Automotive (CIE) sold its Mexican steel tyre unit Iochpe for EUR2.6mn (US$3.64mn) while Ficosa took over USbased rear-view mirror manufacturer Camryn. Through the acquisition, Ficosa aims to raise its sales in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region by 20% and expand its client portfolio. Ficosa also intends to improve its Asian manufacturing footprint from 2% to 25% through the purchase of Camryn.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Spain Auto Industry SWOT .. 6 Spain Political SWOT . 7 Spain Economic SWOT .. 8 Spain Business Environment SWOT . 9 Global Overview .. 10 BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry .. 10 Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 19 Regional Overview . 20

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>> Get this Report Now by email! EU Visualises An Oil-Free Future, But Will The Industry Accept It' .. 20 Table: EU Action Plan For Electric Vehicles .. 22 Table: Europe 'Top Automotive Suppliers Sales By Region (US$mn), 2010 . 23 Macroeconomic Forecast 24 Table: Spain ' Economic Activity .. 28 Industry Forecast Scenario 29 Domestic Sales 29 Table: Spain Autos Sales ' Historical Data And Forecasts .. 29 Production 31 Table: Spain ' Auto Production And Exports, 2010 . 31 Table: Spain Auto Production ' Historical Data And Forecasts . 32 Table: Spain Auto Sector ' Historical Data And Forecasts .. 33 Industry Overview .. 34 Table: Spain Auto Industry ' Economic Data .. 34 Industry News .. 35 Passenger Cars 36 Table: Spain Passenger Car Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts.. 36 Key Players 36 Company News 37 Future Of Production 38 Table: Auto Production, 2009-2010.. 39 Commercial Vehicles 41 Table: Spain Commercial Vehicle Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts .. 41 Company News .. 42 Motorcycles 43 Table: Spain Motorcycles Segment ' Historical Data And Forecasts 43 Company News .. 45 Suppliers .. 48 Company News .. 49 Company Profiles 50 Volkswagen-SEAT .. 50 Renault . 51 PSA Peugeot CitroĂŤn 52 Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data 53 Section 1: Population .. 53 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 53 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 54 Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 54 Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 54 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 54 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 55 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 55 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 55 Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 .. 56 How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 57 Sources 58

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Spain Autos Report Q3 2011  

A 26% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in new vehicle sales in the first four months of 2011 has prompted BMI to downgrade its total vehicle sal...

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