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Singapore Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 Published on June 2011

Report Summary Rising wages, a low unemployment rate and a stronger currency will spur private consumption growth in Singapore for 2011, boding well for the country's freight transport sector. On the external front, we believe that demand will be buoyed by our improved outlook for the US and China. Overall, we project Singapore's real GDP to reach 5.9% in 2011 before dipping slightly to 4.4% in 2012. Advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) indicate that Singapore's real GDP expanded by 12.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q410, capping a stellar 2010 when economic growth reached 14.5% (the fastest rate in Asia). Notably, on a seasonally-adjusted annualised (SA) quarter-on-quarter (qo- q) basis, the economy reversed an 18.9% contraction in Q310 to register growth of 6.9% in Q410. We reiterate our recently upgraded 5.9% real GDP forecast for 2011, which came on the back of an improved outlook in both the US (real GDP growth increased from 2.8% to 3.1%) and China (real GDP growth raised from 7.5% to 8.3%). On the domestic front, rising wages and tight employment conditions should also lead to strong private consumption demand. Headline Industry Data -Port of Singapore total tonnage growth of 8.74% in 2011 to reach 546.41mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 4.65% during our forecast period. -Another strong year for air freight volume in 2011: we predict growth of 4% to 1.885mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 2% during our forecast period. -The country's overall trade is forecast to grow by a healthy 6.4% in real terms in 2011. Key Industry Trends Air ' Cartel Fines Put Further Pressure On Cargo Carriers New Zealand's Commerce Commission has withdrawn non-compliance charges against Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific after the air cargo carriers disclosed information required as part of an ongoing investigation into a large price-fixing cartel. However, investigations against these airlines and others continue, and other competition authorities from around the world are pursuing airlines as part of investigations into the same cartel. With airlines already reeling after a difficult start to the year, BMI notes that fines resulting from these investigations could place further pressure on carriers' bottom lines. Maritime ' MPA And PSA Launch US$16mn Port R&D Scheme Singapore's Maritime Port Authority (MPA) and global port operator PSA International have signed a memorandum of understanding to conduct research and development to test new container terminals technology. Key Risks To Outlook In the event of a sharp decline in external demand triggered either by a slowdown in China or the US in H211, our forecasts may be at risk. Given Singapore's high dependency on exports, Singapore's Monetary Authority may be inclined to opt for a neutral policy stand throughout 2011, implying no appreciation from the current level of around SGD1.2800/US$.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Singapore Freight Transport Industry SWOT . 7

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Singapore Political SWOT 7 Singapore Economic SWOT . 8 Singapore Business Environment SWOT .. 8 Industry Trends And Developments .. 9 Air . 9 Maritime . 10 Market Overview .. 11 Air .. 11 Rail 11 Maritime . 11 Container Shipping Overview .. 12 Drivers . 12 Bellwethers 14 Rates . 17 Players . 19 Industry Forecast 21 Air Freight . 21 Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 . 21 Maritime Freight 21 Table: Maritime Freight, 2008-2015 21 Trade Overview .. 21 Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .. 22 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) . 23 Table: Singapore's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 24 Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .. 24 Company Profiles 25 Singapore Airlines Cargo (SIA Cargo) 25 Pacific International Lines (PIL) 28 Pacific Carriers Limited (PCL) .. 30 MCC Transport 32 Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data . 34 Section 1: Population 34 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 34 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030 35 Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 35 Table: Education, 2000-2004 .. 35 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 35 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 36 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 36 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 36 BMI Methodology 37 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 37 Transport Industry . 37 Sources .. 38

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Singapore Freight Transport Report Q3 2011