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Serbia Autos Report Q4 2011 Published on September 2011

Report Summary Q211 saw a notable increase in the number of automotive parts manufacturers choosing to invest in Serbia, which BMI has linked to Italian carmaker Fiat's presence in the country, the government's subsidisation of the industry's expansion, and the comparatively low cost of labour in Serbia. Seven component factories are expected to launch in the country in 2011, largely to supply Fiat's Serbian operations, and in July, Turkish Weekly reported President Boris Tadic's hope that Fiat's presence in Serbia would provide the impetus for development in the country's economy. South Korean Yura opened its second Serbian plant in July 2011 in Nis, creating 1,500 positions in the local area. In addition, the company's EUR13mn investment in Leskovac is expected to create 1,500 jobs. Furthermore, German supplier Grammer's EUR1mn investment in its Serbian plant will create 211 jobs, while German cable supplier Leoni's Prokuplje facility is expected to increase its workforce to 1,400 by the end of 2011. In terms of commercial vehicles, the Serbian Government confirmed a RSD100mn investment in the Industrija Motora Rakovica engine plant. The funds will allow the plant to complete an order of 15,000 tractors for Ethiopia, while creating 150 jobs in Serbia and addressing the plant's debt problems. The government has also announced a RSD500mn subsidy to boost Serbia's bus sales ' the scheme will also provide a 30% discount to owners replacing a bus over 10 years old with a locally made vehicle. As in Q111, there are hopes that Serbia might increase its automotive trade links with Russia, allowing Serbia to increase its presence in the European autos segment. Russia is already the country's leading trade partner, but Serbia is reportedly keen to add cars to its Free Trade Agreement with Russia. BMI expects to see steady growth in Serbia's automotive industry over the forecast period, and as such the number of cars per 1,000 people in the country should increase to 229.43 by 2015, from 207 at the end of 2010. Our forecasts indicate that vehicle production will increase 2.44% y-o-y in 2011, with a 2.25% increase in passenger car production. Meanwhile, vehicles sales are expected to increase 3.19% y-o-y in 2011, to 44,039 units.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Serbia Autos Industry SWOT ..... 6 Serbia Political SWOT ...... 7 Serbia Economic SWOT .... 7 Business Environment SWOT ..... 8 Global Overview ....... 9 BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry . 9 Regional Overview . 14 Table: Europe ' Top Automotive Suppliers Sales By Region (US$mn), 2010 ... 16 Business Environment Analysis ...... 18 Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe .... 21 Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 22 Table: Serbian Automotive Production And Sales (CBUs) ... 22

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Trade ... 27 Table: Serbian Trade ...... 27 Macroeconomic Forecast 31 Table: Serbia ' Economic Activity .... 33 Competitive Landscape .. 34 Zastava 38 Automotive Parts ... 40 Commercial Vehicle Market .... 42 Company Monitor ... 45 Hyundai Motor ...... 45 Company Profiles ... 47 Zastava Automobile ........ 47 Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data .. 50 Section 1: Population ...... 50 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 50 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 51 Section 2: Education And Healthcare ........ 51 Table: Education, 2000-2001 .. 51 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ..... 51 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 52 Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 52 Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 .. 52 BMI Methodology ... 53 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 53 Sources 54

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