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Peru Shipping Report Q3 2011 Published on June 2011

Report Summary BMI View We expect strong growth in Peru during 2011 and are also bullish about the medium-term outlook. This means the operating environment for the ports and shipping sector should be supportive. After strong GDP growth in 2010 we believe the country will have slightly slower, but still impressive, expansion rates in 2011. Fixed investment has been making the strongest contribution to GDP, but in the medium term we believe private sector consumption will increase as income levels rise and unemployment falls. While net exports have been a drag on growth, in the medium term Peru's commodity exports connect it to the China growth story. BMI forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 6.2% in Peru, compared with a 8.5% fall in 2010. We expect growth to ease further to 4.9% in 2012 and to remain in the 4-5% band in subsequent years. As a result in the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 5.3% per annum. Keiko Fujimori appears to be ahead in the presidential elections judging by opinion polls, with results expected on June 10. However, with almost a month to go until the ballot and Humala apparently set to release details of his newer, more moderate policy platform in the coming days - which may see support swing back in his favour - we believe the outcome remains incredibly hard to call. Headline Industry Data -Total Peruvian trade (imports plus exports) will remain vigorous in 2011: BMI predicts real term growth of 11.5%, compared with 9.8% in 2010. -We are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow 12.3% this year to 1.022mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). -Gross tonnage at Callao will also be positive (+6.5% to 18.572mn tonnes). Key Industry Trends APM Wins Concession To Operate Callao's Muelle Norte - APM Terminals Callao, a consortium led by APM Terminals, the terminals operating division of Danish shipping firm AP Moller Maersk, has been awarded the concession to develop Callao's Muelle Norte terminal. BMI believes the news is a positive development for the port, which handles 45% of Peruvian cargo, bringing to a close a controversial concessioning process. Callao A Victim Of Its Own Success - The new terminal built at the Port of Callao in May 2010 has performed so successfully that it is almost running at full capacity, according to the managing director of DP World's Americas region, Matthew Leech. Key Risks To Outlook BMI believes risks to our Peruvian port and shipping forecasts are evenly poised, with both the upside and downside risks offsetting each other in the lead-up to the presidential election results being announced on June 10. There is an upside risk that, based on a fairly smooth electoral process and transition to a new administration, a positive private sector and foreign investor response will boost 2011 growth prospects and increase demand for the services of the ports and shipping sector. On the downside, the presidential elections may well result in increased political and trade union protests, and coupled perhaps with some inflationary pressure this will force greater-than-expected monetary tightening and slower growth, with adverse knock-on effects for the industry.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5

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>> Get this Report Now by email! SWOT Analysis 7 Peru Shipping SWOT .. 7 Global Overview . 8 Container Industry Overview . 8 Drivers 8 Bellwethers 10 Rates . 14 Players . 16 Dry Bulk Shipping Overview 18 Drivers . 18 Capacity .. 19 Rates . 22 Liquid Bulk Shipping Overview . 25 Drivers . 25 Capacity .. 28 Rates . 31 Players . 31 Geopolitical Developments 33 Industry Trends and Developments . 37 Market Overview .. 39 Port of Callao . 39 Overview . 39 Terminals, Storage And Equipment .. 40 Expansions And Developments 41 Multi-Modal Links . 41 Port of Paita 42 Overview . 42 Terminals, Storage And Equipment .. 42 Expansions And Developments 43 Multi-Modal Links . 43 Industry Forecast 45 Table: Major Port Data .. 46 Table: Trade Overview 47 Table: Key Trade Indicators . 48 Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn) 49 Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn) 50 Company Profiles 51 Maersk Line .. 51 Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) . 55 CMA CGM . 58 Hapag-Lloyd . 61 Evergreen Line 65 APL 67 CSAV 70 COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON). 73 Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 76 China Shipping (CSCL) .. 80

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Peru Shipping Report Q3 2011  

BMI View We expect strong growth in Peru during 2011 and are also bullish about the medium-term outlook. This means the operating environmen...

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