Page 1

ReportLinker

Find Industry reports, Company profiles and Market Statistics

>> Get this Report Now by email!

Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary BMI is expecting healthy growth in Peru in 2011 and is also bullish about the medium-term outlook, which means the operating environment for the freight transport sector should be supportive. However, the recent victory for Ollanta Humala in the presidential election on June 5 has a huge bearing on the route the country's finances will take. Our near-term positive outlook for Peruvian markets will be reinforced if appointments to key positions, including the finance minister and central bank president, are perceived as signalling broad policy continuity and a pro-investor stance. Over the longer term, heightened political risk could re-emerge, weighing on the performance of Peruvian assets. While in the short to medium term, Humala's need to reassure international investors and the inclusion of moderate technocrats in his economic team will likely keep him tied to a centrist policy trajectory, we believe his core, left-wing supporters may become dissatisfied a year or two down the line, which risks him moving back towards the left of the political spectrum. Based on our analysis at the time of writing, BMI forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 6.2% in Peru (representing a deceleration on the 8.5% growth rate achieved in 2010). We expect growth to ease further to 4.9% in 2012 and to fluctuate around 5% in the subsequent years. As a result, in the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average a strong 5.3% per annum. Headline Industry Data - Total Peruvian trade (imports+exports) will remain vigorous in 2011: BMI predicts real term growth of 11.5% - We are projecting throughput at Callao to grow 6.5% this year to 18.57mn TEUs - Air freight is predicted to grow by 8.5% to 245mn tonnes in 2011 Key Industry Trends APM Wins Concession To Operate Callao's Muelle Norte Proinversi贸n, Peru's private investment promotion agency, has awarded the concession to develop Callao's Muelle Norte terminal to APM Terminals Callao, which is a consortium led by APM Terminals. BMI believes the news is a positive development for the port, which handles 45% of Peruvian cargo, bringing to a close a controversial concessioning process. Callao Becomes Victim Of Own Success The Port of Callao is operating very near capacity, following on from the opening of a new terminal in May 2010, according to the managing director of DP World's Americas region, Matthew Leech. Key Risks To Outlook BMI believes that risks to our Peruvian freight transport forecasts are now slightly to the upside. Peruvian markets have staged an impressive recovery since Ollanta Humala's victory in the presidential election on June 5 caused a sharp selloff across all asset classes. This underpins our core view that the near-term risks associated with a Humala victory have been to some extent overblown, as it is looking increasingly possible that the new government will pursue a much more moderate economic policy path than had originally been feared. In particular, we are encouraged that a number of major mining and other projects have been confirmed in the week since the result was announced, as there was concern that major investors would pull out on the back of a Humala win.

Table of Content Executive Summary ..................... 5 SWOT Analysis ...... 7 Peru Freight Transport Industry SWOT ..................... 7

Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

Page 1/4


ReportLinker

Find Industry reports, Company profiles and Market Statistics

>> Get this Report Now by email! Peru Political SWOT .... 7 Peru Economic SWOT .. 8 Mexico Business Environment SWOT .. 8 Industry Trends And Developments .................. 9 Maritime 9 Market Overview .. 11 Multimodal ................. 11 Road .... 12 Rail ...... 12 Air ........ 13 Water ... 13 Container Shipping Overview .... 15 Drivers . 15 Bellwethers ................. 17 Rates .... 20 Players . 22 Industry Forecast 24 Air Freight .................. 24 Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 ........... 24 Maritime Freight ........ 24 Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes) ..... 24 Rail Freight ................ 25 Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 ......... 25 Trade Overview .......... 25 Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 ... 26 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) ................. 26 Table: Peru's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .............. 27 Table: Peru's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .............. 28 Macroeconomic Outlook ............ 29 Table: Peru ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ........... 30 Political Outlook .. 32 Short Term Political Outlook ............. 32 Long-Term Political Outlook ............. 33 Company Profiles 37 Agunsa . 37 Ferrocarril Central Andino ............... 39 LAN Cargo .................. 41 BMI Methodology 43 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............... 43 Transport Industry ...... 43 Sources ..... 44

Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

Page 2/4


Find Industry reports, Company profiles and Market Statistics

ReportLinker

>> Get this Report Now by email! Fax Order Form To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to: ƒ ƒ

Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56 Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93

If you have any questions please visit http://www.reportlinker.com/notify/contact

Order Information Please verify that the product information is correct and select the format(s) you require. Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011

Product Formats Please select the product formats and the quantity you require. 1 User License--USD 530.00

Quantity: _____

3 User License--USD 689.00

Quantity: _____

5 User License--USD 795.00

Quantity: _____

Annual Subscription--USD 975.00

Quantity: _____

Department License--USD 1 060.00

Quantity: _____

Corporate License--USD 3 180.00

Quantity: _____

Contact Information Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS

Title:

Mr

Mrs

Dr

Miss

Ms

Prof

First Name:

_____________________________ Last Name: __________________________________

Email Address:

__________________________________________________________________________

Job Title:

__________________________________________________________________________

Organization:

__________________________________________________________________________

Address:

__________________________________________________________________________

City:

__________________________________________________________________________

Postal / Zip Code:

__________________________________________________________________________

Country:

__________________________________________________________________________

Phone Number:

__________________________________________________________________________

Fax Number:

__________________________________________________________________________

Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

Page 3/4


Find Industry reports, Company profiles and Market Statistics

ReportLinker

>> Get this Report Now by email! Payment Information Please indicate the payment method, you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box.

Payment by credit card

Card Number: ______________________________________________

Expiry Date

__________ / _________

CVV Number _____________________

Card Type (ex: Visa, Amex…) _________________________________

Payment by wire transfer

Crédit Mutuel RIB : 10278 07314 00020257701 89 BIC : CMCIFR2A IBAN : FR76 1027 8073 1400 0202 5770 189

Payment by check

UBIQUICK SAS 16 rue Grenette – 69002 LYON, FRANCE

Customer signature:

Please note that by ordering from Reportlinker you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at http://www.reportlinker.com/index/terms

Please fax this form to: Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56

ƒ ƒ

Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93

Page 4/4

Peru Freight Transport Report Q3 2011  

BMI is expecting healthy growth in Peru in 2011 and is also bullish about the medium-term outlook, which means the operating environment for...

Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you