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Mexico Power Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary The newly published Mexico Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will increase from an estimated 211TWh in 2010 to 281TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 2.9% average annual growth. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a surplus supply rising from the estimated 44TWh level seen in 2010 to 52TWh by 2020, assuming 2.7% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Mexico's power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 255TWh, having risen 6.6% from the 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 3.1% annual increase to 297TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow 3.1% per annum during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to slow later in the decade. We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 4.2% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 3.8% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 155TWh by 2015 and 182TWh by 2020. The share of total power generation should therefore increase from 49.4% to 52.1% by 2015, rising to 54.6% by 2020. Oil will remain a relatively significant part of the Mexican power generation mix, although its market share should fall steadily during the forecast period as several new gas facilities are being built. Oil currently accounts for 19.2% of total generation, falling to a maximum of 16.6% by 2015, owing to greater gas, coal, hydro and nuclear expansion. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 12.7% of the country's total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel's market share to be 12.5% by 2015, firing a projected 37TWh. By 2020, coal's share of generation is forecast at 12.8%, representing 43TWh. BMI suggests that nuclear power generation in 2010 was 10.1TWh, rising to a forecast 10.6TWh by 2015, assuming the planned reactor expansion proceeds. The share of generation is forecast to remain just under 4% during the period. Mexico is ranked sixth, ahead of Venezuela, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable market size and reasonable growth prospects. The lack of privatisation progress, a poorly developed competitive landscape and a demanding regulatory environment conspire with country risk factors to depress the score and put Mexico near the foot of the table.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 6 Mexico SWOT .... 6 Global Overview .. 7 Global Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) .. 7 Global Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh) .... 8 Global Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) . 9 Regional Industry Overview .. 11 Table: Total Generation Forecasts, TWh . 11 Table: Total Consumption Forecasts, TWh... 12 Table: Electricity Generation Capacity Forecasts, TWh .. 14 Market Overview 15 Regulation And Competition 15 Power Transmission .. 15

Mexico Power Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Business Environment .... 16 Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings .. 16 Table: Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings .. 16 Mexico's Power Rating ... 16 Rewards . 17 Risks . 17 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 18 Table: Mexico Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 18 Table: Mexico Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) 20 Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 22 Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 23 Table: Mexico Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 23 Table: Mexico Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ... 23 Table: Mexico Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 23 Table: Mexico Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 23 Table: Mexico Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) . 24 Table: Mexico Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ... 25 Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) 26 Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW)... 27 Mexico's Power Outlook. 29 Generation .. 29 Gas-Fired ... 30 Oil-Fired 30 Coal-Fired .. 30 Nuclear Energy 30 Hydro-Electric . 31 Renewable Energy 31 Transmission .... 32 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 33 Competitive Landscape ... 34 Comisi贸n Federal de Electricidad (CFE) 34 Iberdrola 34 Union Fenosa .. 34 Glossary Of Terms . 35 Glossary Of Terms 35 BMI Methodology ... 36 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 36 Power Industry 36 Cross Checks ... 37 Sources .. 37

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Mexico Power Report Q3 2011  

The newly published Mexico Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will increase from an estimated 211TWh in 20...

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