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Israel Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary Private consumption and exports will lead the expansion of the petrochemicals industry in 2011, but BMI's latest Israel Petrochemicals Report cautions that elevated political risk poses downside risks to our forecasts. Despite a slight deceleration expected towards the end of 2001, we project real GDP growth of 4.8% and 4.5% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, up from 3.8% and 3.3% previously. Unemployment has declined to a seasonally adjusted 6.0% in Q111 (its lowest level since Q308) and manufacturing production is at its highest level since 2004, while growth in exports and private consumption has been robust, as we expected. That said, while Q111 real GDP growth came in at 7.0% y-o-y, it rose only 0.4% q-o-q, and a number of recent economic indicators point to an impending slowdown in economic momentum. Consequently, our 2011 forecast reflects only a moderate increase from real GDP growth of 4.7% in 2010. Industrial production growth will slow slightly from 8.1% in 2010 to 7.0% in 2011, before declining to 3.5-5.5% over the following four years. The appreciation of the shekel represents a major downside risk, which will compound the problems associated with weakening recoveries in key export markets, namely the US and the eurozone. The Israeli petrochemicals market will become more difficult for domestic producers while export growth will come under pressure. Given that the US and eurozone are Israel's largest trade partners, comprising 35.1% and 20.8% of Israel's total exports in 2009 respectively, weak recoveries in those economies will likely have a detrimental effect on Israel's exports through the rest of 2011. Although faltering growth in key developed export markets will continue to weigh on the relatively large external sector, increasing diversification towards faster-growing emerging markets, as well as ongoing product specialisation, should lessen the constraint. In BMI's Middle Eastern and African Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings matrix, Israel lies in sixth place, with a score of 55.5 points. The country lies 1.0 point behind Iran and 2.2 points ahead of South Africa. With no planned significant growth in petrochemicals capacities over the medium term, Israel's score is unlikely to change much over the next five years, although it could be improved by better Political, Economic and Business Risk ratings.

Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis

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Israel Petrochemicals Industry SWOT Israel Political SWOT

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Israel Economic SWOT

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Israel Business Environment SWOT Global Petrochemicals Overview Financial Results

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Global Oil Products Outlook

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Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/BBL) Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/BBL) Gulf Regional Overview

Israel Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)

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Table: Announced Ethylene Crackers In The Gulf Region Israel Market Overview

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Market Structure

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Table: Israel's Petrochemical Sector ' Cracker Capacity, 2006-2014 Plastics And Rubber Sales

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Business Environment Ratings

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Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings Industry Trends And Developments

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Projects And Acquisitions

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Company Developments

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Upstream Developments

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Industry Forecast Scenario

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Table: Israel's Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2015 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Israel ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 Company Monitor

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Gadiv Petrochemicals Industries Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)

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Israel Petrochemical Enterprises (IPE) Glossary Of Terms

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Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms BMI Methodology

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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry Cross Checks

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Business Environment Ratings

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Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale Weighting

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Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Israel Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)

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Israel Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011  

Private consumption and exports will lead the expansion of the petrochemicals industry in 2011, but BMI's latest Israel Petrochemicals Repor...

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