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Indonesia Power Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary The new Indonesian Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption is expected to rise from 148TWh in 2010 to 321TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 8.0% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a surplus supply rising from the estimated 16TWh level seen in 2010 to 17TWh by 2020, assuming 7.5% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Indonesian power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 164TWh, having recovered from the depressed 2009 level of 144TWh. BMI is forecasting an average 7.2% annual increase to 232TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to increase by 7.4% during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to accelerate later in the decade. We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 7.1% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 7.5% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 42.2TWh by 2015 and almost 62.0TWh by 2020. The share of total Indonesian power generation should therefore remain about 18.2% during the forecast period. The expansion of the gas-fired power segment is expected to accelerate beyond the end of the forecast period, as gas previously sold under long-term LNG contracts with Japan is likely to be retained for domestic use when these contracts expire at the end of the decade. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 44.7% of the country's total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel's market share to be 46.6% by 2015, firing a projected 108TWh. By 2020, coal's share of generation is forecast at 48.5%, representing 164TWh. Given the country's substantial and under-used coal resources, the fuel represents the most attractive 'quick fix' in terms of short-term capacity expansion in the power sector. The new state power generation plan includes 3.31GW of additional coal-fired capacity.. In BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, Indonesia is now ranked equal sixth, alongside Thailand. This reflects its healthy power consumption growth prospects. However, several country risk factors offset the industry strength, and the country may struggle to keep ahead of Malaysia and Pakistan over the longer term. The Philippines, just below, also poses a threat over the medium term.

Table of Content Executive Summary ..................... 5 SWOT Analysis ...... 6 Indonesia Power SWOT 6 Global Industry Overview ............ 7 Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ....... 7 Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 8 Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) ..................... 9 Regional Industry Overview ....... 11 Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ..... 12 Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 13 Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)...... 15 Table: Nuclear Power In Asia ........... 16 Industry Forecast Scenario ........ 17

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Indonesia Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ........... 17 Table: Indonesia Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ......... 19 Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 20 Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 21 Table: Indonesia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ...... 21 Table: Indonesia Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)........... 21 Table: Indonesia Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ........ 21 Table: Indonesia Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ...... 21 Table: Indonesia Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ............. 22 Table: Indonesia Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Long-term Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .................. 23 Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) ............ 24 Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) ................ 25 Indonesia's Power Outlook ................ 26 Generation .................. 26 Gas-Fired ................... 27 Oil-Fired ..................... 28 Coal-Fired .................. 28 Nuclear Energy ........... 29 Hydro-Electric ............ 30 Renewable Energy ...... 31 Transmission ............... 32 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ..................... 33 Competitive Landscape ............. 34 Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) ..... 35 Glossary Of Terms ..................... 37 Glossary Of Terms ...... 37 Methodology And Sources ......... 38 Industry Forecasts ...... 38 Data Methodology ' Generation And Consumption Data ............... 39 Data Methodology ' Electricity Generation Capacity Data ............ 40 Sources 40

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Indonesia Power Report Q3 2011