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Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary We continue to be concerned by the state of the shipping industry. Container shipping companies are struggling to push through rate increases, and liquid and dry-bulk operators are contending with some of the lowest daily returns in years. The cause is overcapacity, which looks unlikely to ameliorate anytime soon. There are fresh challenges on the way, including the fleets of mega-vessels being built by Vale and Maersk Line. BMI's country risk team was surprised by the transitional government's decision to turn down a loan from the IMF in late June. We believe it further underscores investor concerns about the potential for erratic policy decisions by Egypt's transitional government. Decisions like this demonstrate what a state of change Egypt remains in following the ouster of President Mubarak in the first quarter. Despite this it seems that Gulf investors at least are prepared to invest in the country's ports sector. The country is also blessed with the presence of the Suez Canal, which has been experiencing gains in both volumes and revenues in 2011. Headline Industry Data - 2011 total tonnage throughput at Damietta is forecast to grow by 2.3% to 29.32mn tonnes, and to average 1.5% per annum to 2015. - 2011 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 0.8% to reach 2.6mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 7.7% to 2015. - 2011 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 8.9%, and to average 7.6% over the mid term. Key Industry Trends KGL Intends To Invest US$1bn In Damietta Port Project: In June Kuwait-based logistics company Kuwait & Gulf Link Transport Company (KGL) announced it is planning to invest US$1bn in the Egyptian Port of Damietta following recommencement of operations in the suspended port project, according to Chairman Saed al-Dashti. Dashti said that KGL is conducting discussions with the Egyptian government in order to resume the project operations, and will also hold talks with Prime Minister Essam Sharaf to address the pending concerns. Dashti further revealed that KGL has so far invested US$260mn in the Damietta Port project. Qatar To Build Two New Egyptian Ports: In May Qatar revealed ambitious plans to invest in two new ports in Egypt, potentially creating more than 1mn new jobs. BMI notes that the investment is to facilitate the country's trade in Africa, as the country looks to the future and diversifies away from a reliance on gas export revenues. Exports Take A Hit: According to the Egyptian trade and industry minister, Samiha Fawzi Ibrahim, there was a 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall in exports from Egypt in January 2011, which was attributed to the curfew and strikes. The net effect of these same factors on February's exports will surely be even greater and there must have been a fall in throughput at Egypt's ports. The latest available throughput data available at the time of writing is for January, which does not appear to have experienced a huge decrease. East Port Said's throughput was 240,890TEUs in January 2011, up by 7.12% from January 2010's 224,858TEUs. The February throughput figures could show a decline, however. Key Risks To Outlook Egypt is still very much in a state of flux and it is too early to say what form of government will emerge once the transition period is over, providing upside and downside risk to our port throughput forecasts. Should the country descend into chaos, which seems unlikely but is nevertheless possible, there would be serious downside risks for the country's ports. Alternatively, a more free market economy might be established that could boost Egyptian ports' throughputs to the upside.

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Table of Content Executive Summary

... 5

Headline Industry Data

... 5

Key Industry Trends


Key Risks To Outlook

...... 6

SWOT Analysis

.... 7

Egypt Shipping SWOT

.... 7

Egypt Political SWOT

.... 8

Egypt Economic SWOT

.. 9

Egypt Business Environment SWOT Global Overview

.. 10


Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed Drivers Bellwethers

..... 13


. 16


... 19

Table: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term

..... 20

Dry-Bulk: No Recovery On The Horizon For Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low Drivers

... 24


. 26

Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle Drivers


..... 30


... 35


. 38

Industry Trends and Development Market Overview

...... 41


Port of Alexandria

...... 43

Port Said


Industry Forecast

..... 48

Table 1: Major Port Data

.... 51

Table 2: Trade Overview

..... 53

Table 3: Key Trade Indicators

.... 54

Table 4: Main Import Partners

... 55

Table 5: Main Export Partners

... 55

Company Profile


Maersk Line

.... 56

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) CMA CGM


...... 65

COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) Hapag-Lloyd


... 71

Evergreen Line CSAV


..... 22



.. 11

..... 11

...... 74 ... 77 81

Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)

Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)

.. 84

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... 88

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