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Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary BMI View: Heavy flooding in April 2011 brought further misery to Colombian agricultural producers, following devastating floods in December 2010. More than three million people have been affected. The Ministry of Agriculture announced that the rains have affected 1mn hectares of agricultural land and estimated that 115,000 cattle head had been lost, 1.4mn cattle head displaced and 600,000 birds lost. The flooding has also hit fruit and vegetable crops and the dairy sector. The country's road network has been severely damaged, disrupting the food supply chain. Key Forecasts GDP is forecast to rise by 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011 and 4.9% in 2012, up from 4.3% y-o-y growth in 2010. Strong household consumption and credit growth, surging retail sales and an upwardly revised 2011 growth forecast continue to risk pushing inflation higher and we see CPI increasing to 3.6% y-o-y, up from 2.8% in 2010. Flooding in December 2010 and April 2011 hit the 2010/11 sugar harvest, as some sugarcane plantations could not be harvested. As a result, we forecast that output for 2010/11 will decline by 3.7% y-o-y to 2.22mn tonnes. Grain production has been hit hard by heavy rains. We now forecast that corn output in 2010/11 will decline by 9.3% y-o-y to 1.45mn tonnes. We anticipate wheat production falling by 17.8% y-o-y to 21,450 tonnes. Cocoa production is set to decline in 2010/11, as crops were hit by the heavy rains that caused widespread agricultural damage through late 2010 and early 2011. Incidences of Moniliophthora (Monilia), or frosty pod rot, were also reported to be on the rise. The poor weather has also damaged the quality of the cocoa beans, which will hit export potential. We currently forecast production to come in at 39,040 tonnes, down by 7.4% y-o-y. Key Trends and Developments In April 2011, the governments of Colombia and Venezuela reached an agreement to restore trade relations following a meeting in Cartagena on April 9. This is good news for the dairy sector, as the agreement included the offer to export 100,000 tonnes of Colombian dairy products across the border, including liquid, evaporated and powdered milk, cheese, butter, whey and milk-based drinks. The deal also bodes well for Colombia's livestock sector, as it opens the way for the sale of 6,500 heads of cattle, in addition to 3,000 live cattle, 3,500 pregnant cows, 60,000 day-old chicks and 100,000 hatching eggs. In March 2011, negotiators from the EU, Colombia and Peru signed the final texts agreeing a free trade agreement (FTA). The final signing of the FTA will come into effect following a further translation and approval process. Colombian farmers voiced their continued opposition to the trade deal, as delegations from 10 Colombian departments met in Bogotรก and marched to the Ministry of Agriculture to protest against the FTA, which they argue will ruin almost 480,000 small producers with fewer than 10 cows, jeopardising the country's food security. In April 2011, there were signs that the US and Colombia had made progress in moving forward the longstalled FTA between the two countries. The pact was first signed in 2006, but had not been ratified due to continuing concerns over Colombia's human rights record. However, following a meeting between US President Barack Obama and his Colombian counterpart Juan Manuel Santos at the White House, the two nations agreed an action plan to bring the FTA to fruition. Colombia agreed to introduce a raft of measures to clamp down on violence targeted at labour unions in the country. The Obama administration is expected to formally submit the FTA to Congress by mid-June 2011. In April 2011, Agriculture Minister Juan Camilo Restrepo announced the introduction of a new rural development plan, the Desarrollo Rural con Equidad (DRE) programme, which will replace the Agro Ingreso Seguro. The programme will have COP500bn in funding

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>> Get this Report Now by email! and is designed to support more than 100,000 small and medium-sized producers to improve access to credit for irrigation and drainage programmes and boost production of staple foods for domestic consumption. The programme is also designed to help producers who are at risk of being negatively impacted by the entry into force of a number of new FTAs. In May 2011, Restrepo announced a proposal to almost double the land available for growing food and biofuel by reclaiming land in the east of the country, which has historically been a hotbed of Colombian coca production. In an interview with Reuters, Restrepo stated that 4mn hectares in the eastern plains are ideal for conversion into farmland. The government plans to invest up to US$5bn to convert 1mn hectares of this land and hopes that the private sector will also invest. The reforms would see lands stolen from small-hold farmers by paramilitaries, ranchers and drug lords returned to their rightful owners. Colombia's investment into boosting coffee production as part of its five-year programme from 2010- 2015 is already bearing fruit. In 2010, 85,000 hectares were renovated, with around 85% of them now resistant to coffee rust. The long-term goal is to renovate 98% of coffee plantations by 2020.

Table of Content Executive Summary 5 Key Forecasts ....... 5 Key Trends and Developments ...... 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Colombia Agriculture SWOT 7 Colombia Political SWOT ..... 8 Colombia Economic SWOT .. 8 Colombia Business Environment SWOT ....... 9 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10 Colombia Sugar Outlook . 10 Colombia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .. 11 Colombia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .. 14 Colombia Coffee Outlook. 15 Colombia Coffee Production & Consumption .... 16 Colombia Coffee Production & Consumption .... 20 Colombia Dairy Outlook .. 22 Colombia Milk Production & Consumption 23 Colombia Butter Production & Consumption ..... 23 Colombia Cheese Production & Consumption ... 23 Colombia Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption ....... 24 Colombia Milk Production & Consumption 27 Colombia Butter Production & Consumption ..... 27 Colombia Cheese Production & Consumption ... 27 Colombia Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption ....... 28 Colombia Livestock Outlook .... 30 Colombia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 32 Colombia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade .... 32

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Colombia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade 32 Colombia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 35 Colombia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade .... 35 Colombia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade 35 Colombia Grains Outlook 37 Colombia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade . 38 Colombia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ... 39 Colombia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade . 39 Colombia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade . 41 Colombia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ... 41 Colombia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade . 42 Colombia Cocoa Outlook. 43 Colombia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade 44 Colombia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade . 45 Competitive Landscape 47 Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ....... 47 Table: Agribusiness Suppliers .... 48 Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers... 49 Commodity Price Analysis .... 50 Monthly Softs Update ....... 50 Cocoa.. 50 COCOA ...... 51 Coffee.. 52 COFFEE ..... 53 Milk ..... 54 MILK .. 55 Sugar .. 56 SUGAR ....... 57 Monthly Grains Update ... 58 Corn .... 58 CORN . 59 Rice ..... 60 RICE ... 61 Soybean ...... 62 SOYBEAN ... 63 Wheat .. 64 WHEAT ....... 65 Downstream Supply Chain Analysis .... 66 Food. 66 Consumer Outlook ...... 66 Food. 67 Total Food Consumption .... 67 Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2007-2015 ...... 68 Canned Food/Prepared Food .. 69 Table: Canned Food Value And Volume Sales, 2007-2015. 69 Confectionery...... 70 Table: Confectionery Value AndVolume Sales, 2007-2015 . 70 Mass Grocery Retail 71

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: MGR Value Sales By Format, 2007-2015 71 Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2009 And 2019 72 Trade .. 73 Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance, 2007-2015 (US$mn) 74 Macroeconomic Forecast 75 BMI Forecast Modelling 77 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 77

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Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2011