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Chile Power Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary This newly published Chile Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will increase from an estimated 56.3TWh in 2010 to 87.7TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 4.5% average annual growth. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a surplus supply falling from the estimated 3.9TWh level seen in 2010 to 1.0TWh by 2020, assuming 4.0% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Chile's power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 60.2TWh, having risen 3.0% from the 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 3.9% annual increase to 72.8TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 4.2% per annum during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to accelerate later in the decade. We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 16.2% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 13.1% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 13.4TWh by 2015 and 21.5TWh by 2020. The share of total power generation should therefore increase from 10.6% to 18.4% by 2015, rising to 24.2% by 2020. Oil will remain a relatively significant part of the Chilean power generation mix, with its market share set to fall steadily during the forecast period. In 2010 the fuel will have accounted for an estimated 22.6% of total generation, falling to a maximum of 14.3% by 2015, thanks to greater gas and hydro expansion. We believe there will be no more than 10.4TWh of oil-fired power generation by the end of the forecast period. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 21.9% of the country's total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel's market share to be 23.3% by 2015, firing a projected 16.9TWh. By 2020, coal's share of generation is forecast at 24.0%, representing 21.3TWh. BMI is forecasting an increase in hydro generation from an estimated 22.1TWh in 2010 to 28.4TWh by 2015, in which year it is expected to account for 39.0% of total power generation. Chile is ranked third behind Brazil and Colombia in BMI's updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation progress, competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk factors are generally supportive and the narrow gap between the respective scores of Chile and Colombia means that they will continue to battle over second and third places.

Table of Content Executive Summary ..................... 5 SWOT Analysis ...... 6 Chile Power SWOT ....... 6 Global Industry Overview ............ 7 Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ....... 7 Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 8 Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) ..................... 9 Regional Industry Overview ....... 11 Table: Total Generation Forecasts, TWh .................. 11 Table: Total Consumption Forecasts, TWh............... 11 Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Forecasts, TWh ................. 13 Market Overview .. 15 Regulation And Competition .............. 15

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Power Transmission ... 16 Business Environment .............. 17 Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings ...................... 17 Table: Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings ............ 17 Chile's Power Rating .. 17 Rewards ...................... 18 Risks .... 18 Industry Forecast Scenario ........ 19 Table: Chile Total Generation Data Coal Generation ..................... 19 Table: Chile Total Generation ong-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .................. 20 Table: Chile Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ....... 22 Table: Chile Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .... 23 Table: Chile Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ............ 23 Table: Chile Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ........... 23 Table: Chile Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ............... 23 Table: Chile Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ............. 23 Table: Chile Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .................... 24 Table: Chile Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ................. 25 Table: Chile Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) ................... 26 Table: Chile Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) ................. 27 Chile's Power Outlook 29 Generation .................. 29 Gas-Fired ................... 30 Oil-Fired ..................... 30 Coal-Fired .................. 30 Nuclear Energy ........... 31 Hydro-Electric ............ 31 Renewable Energy ...... 33 Transmission ............... 34 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ..................... 35 Competitive Landscape ............. 36 Transelec .................... 36 Enersis/Endesa ........... 37 Suez/Tractebel ............ 37 AES ...... 38 ColbĂşn . 38 Pacific Hydro .............. 38 Company Profiles 40 Enersis . 40 BMI Methodology 42 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............... 42 Power Industry ........... 42 Cross Checks .............. 43 Sources 43

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Chile Power Report Q3 2011