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Chile Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary This latest Chile Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.85% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 8.41mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.63mn b/d in 2011 and reach 9.30mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 9.92mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.47mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.24mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 1.52mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 3.05mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 189.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 230.8bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 203bcm in 2010 should reach 254bcm in 2015, and implies more than 20bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Chile's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 was 1.8%, while it has around 0.89% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.2%, with Chile making a contribution of just 0.51% to production. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/barrel (bbl). The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMI has assumed a rise of 5.2% in Chile's 2010 real GDP, with an average annual increase of 4.2% forecast through to 2015. State oil and gas company Empresa Nacional del Petr贸leo (ENAP) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 5,700b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump an average of 8,660b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 358,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be around 352,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is forecast to decrease from an estimated 1.8bcm peak in 2010 to 1.3bcm in 2015, with net imports of 6.2bcm required by 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 13.43%, with demand rising steadily from an estimated 335,000b/d to 380,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 1% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to have peaked at around 1.8bcm in 2010, before declining steadily to 1.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 170% to 9.7bcm, the import requirement will also rise during the 10-year period, from an estimated 1.8bcm to 8.7bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Chile holds last place in BMI's composite Business Environment ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. It is also ranked last, alongside Mexico, in BMI's updated upstream BERs, despite an investor-friendly country risk profile. There is little likelihood of a move much further up the ratings, but Chile may be able to overtake Mexico during the next few quarters. Chile fares a little better in BMI's downstream BERs, taking seventh place, above Ecuador, reflecting its weak oil demand growth outlook, regulatory environment and attractive country risk rating. It should be able to keep Ecuador at bay during coming quarters.

Table of Content Executive Summary 7

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>> Get this Report Now by email! SWOT Analysis 9 Chile Political SWOT 9 Chile Economic SWOT . 10 Chile Business Environment SWOT 11 Chile Energy Market Overview 12 Regional Energy Market Overview . 14 Oil Supply And Demand . 14 Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) 15 Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) . 16 Oil: Downstream . 17 Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 17 Gas Supply And Demand . 18 Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) . 18 Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) 18 Liquefied Natural Gas 19 Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 19 Business Environment Ratings 20 Latin America Region 20 Composite Scores 20 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 20 Upstream Scores . 21 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 21 Chile Upstream Rating ' Overview 22 Chile Upstream Rating ' Rewards 22 Chile Upstream Rating ' Risks . 22 Downstream Scores 23 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 23 Chile Downstream Rating ' Overview 24 Chile Downstream Rating ' Rewards . 24 Chile Downstream Rating ' Risks . 24 Business Environment . 25 Legal Framework . 25 Infrastructure 27 Labour Force 28 Foreign Investment Policy 28 Tax Regime . 29 Security Risk . 30 Industry Forecast Scenario . 31 Oil and Gas Reserves 31 Oil Supply And Demand 31 Gas Supply And Demand 32 Liquefied Natural Gas 32 Refining And Oil Products Trade 33 Revenues/Import Costs . 33 Table: Chile Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts . 34 Other Energy . 35 Table: Chile Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts 39 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 40

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Long-Term Energy Outlook 40 Oil And Gas Infrastructure 41 Oil Refineries . 41 Table: Refineries In Chile . 41 Service Stations 42 Gas Pipelines . 42 LNG Terminals 42 Table: LNG Terminals In Chile 43 Macroeconomic Outlook . 44 Table: Chile ' Economic Activity . 45 Competitive Landscape 46 Executive Summary 46 Table: Key Players . 47 Overview/State Role . 47 Licensing And Regulation . 47 Government Policy . 47 Licensing Rounds 48 Second International Magallanes Tender . 48 First International Magallanes Tender . 48 International Energy Relations 49 Argentina 49 Trinidad & Tobago . 49 Table: Key Upstream Players . 50 Table: Key Downstream Players 50 Company Monitor 51 ENAP ' Empresa Nacional del Petróleo 51 Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile) 55 Shell Chile 57 Petrobras Chile 59 Petróleos Transandinos Repsol YPF 61 GeoPark Holdings . 63 Wintershall ' Summary . 67 ExxonMobil Cono Sur ' Summary 67 Pan American Energy ' Summary 67 GDF Suez ' Summary . 67 Methanex ' Summary 68 Others ' Summary 68 Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts . 69 Regional Oil Demand 69 Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) 69 Regional Oil Supply . 70 Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) . 70 Regional Refining Capacity . 71 Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 71 Regional Gas Demand . 72 Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) . 72 Regional Gas Supply 73 Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) 73

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Chile Country Overview 73 Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 74 Glossary Of Terms 75 Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology . 76 Introduction . 76 Ratings Overview . 76 Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 77 Indicators . 77 Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 77 Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology . 79 BMI Methodology 81 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 81 Energy Industry . 81 Cross checks 82 Sources 82

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Chile Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011  

This latest Chile Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.85% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015,...

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