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Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary Positive Start To 2011 Initial data released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) indicates that the Caribbean tourism industry got off to a good start in 2011, with most countries reporting good growth levels. Some of these were back to pre-2008 levels, boding well for the rest of the season. Cuba performed particularly strongly, with arrivals between January and April growing by 11.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). Curaรงao, which became an independent state in October 2010, also enjoyed strong arrivals growth of 11.6% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2011. Of the 18 countries that had reported arrivals data by June 2011, all but four of posted arrivals growth. Those that experienced declines were Dominica (5.6%), St Lucia (1.1%), Suriname (5.0%) and the US Virgin Islands (3.9%). All these countries experienced declines in 2010, indicating that they are lagging behind the growth trend that is becoming well established in other parts of the Caribbean. While the arrivals data reflects the traditional high season in the Caribbean, BMI is encouraged that such strong growth figures are beginning to return and expects the growth trend to continue throughout the year. Focus On Barbados Barbados is a small island to the west of the eastern Caribbean, with its closest neighbours being St Vincent and the Grenadines and Trinidad and Tobago. It is a very popular tourist destination due to its location close to the South American continent and its position largely outside the hurricane belt, meaning it can attract tourism even during the June-November hurricane season. In 2010, Barbados posted tourist arrivals growth of 2.6% y-o-y, which was a respectable performance. In the first four months of 2011 the growth rate surged to 9.9% y-o-y, one of the strongest recoveries in the region. Low-Cost Airline Launched In a sign that investment is returning to the reviving Caribbean tourism industry, Barbados-based airline REDjet began operations in May 2011 as the region's first low-cost airline. The airline is owned by US company Airone Holdings and operates two McDonnell Douglas MD-82 aircraft. The new airline operates four routes with 18 flights per week: Barbados-Trinidad, Barbados-Guyana, Barbados-Jamaica and Trinidad-Jamaica. REDjet's ticket prices are considerably below those of its regional rivals, LIAT and Caribbean Airlines, and are likely to spark competition in the traditionally high-cost region. This will put particular pressure on Caribbean Airlines, which is still incorporating Air Jamaica, which it bought in May 2010.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 6 Caribbean Tourism SWOT 6 Caribbean Political SWOT .... 6 Caribbean Economic SWOT .. 7 Caribbean Business Environment SWOT ... 7 Industry Forecast Scenario 8 Arrivals And Accommodation 8 Table: Arrivals And Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 . 8 Expenditure ... 9 Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 9

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Inbound Tourism 9 Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, January-April 2011 .. 9 Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2010 .... 10 Table: Tourism On Individual Islands, 2007-2015 ('000, unless stated) 11 Focus: Barbados ... 14 Market Overview ' Travel . 15 Commercial Airlines .. 15 Global Oil Products Price Outlook 17 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)... 17 Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ... 20 Market Overview ' Hospitality ... 22 Cruise Industry 22 Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2009-2010 ... 22 Accommodation .... 23 Luxury Hotels .. 24 Global Assumptions, Q311... 25 Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 ... 25 Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .... 26 Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .... 26 Developed States ... 27 Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 28 Emerging Markets. 29 Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 30 Consensus Forecasts .. 31 Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .... 31 Company Profiles ... 32 Air Jamaica (Caribbean Airlines-Air Jamaica Transition Ltd) .... 32 Royal Caribbean Cruises 34 Sol Meliรก 35 BMI Methodology ... 36 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 36 Tourism Industry ... 36 Sources .. 37

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Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2011  

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