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Algeria Power Report 2011 Published on July 2011

Report Summary The newly published Algeria Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will increase from an estimated 33TWh in 2010 to 48TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 3.8% average annual growth. After power industry usage and system losses, we see surplus supply rising from the theoretical 7.5TWh level seen in 2010 to 12.4TWh by 2020, assuming 4.1% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Algerian power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 40.5TWh, having risen 0.9% from the 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 4.8% annual increase to 51.1TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 4.1% per annum during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to slow later in the decade. We forecast that gas-fired power generation will climb from 39.3TWh to 48.4TWh by 2015, representing 94.7% of generation by the end of the forecast period. Oil will remain a relatively insignificant part of the Algerian power generation mix, with its market share falling from 2.1% to no more than 1.6% by 2015. We believe there will be just 0.8TWh of oil-fired power generation by the end of the forecast period. The Algerian Council of Ministers has approved a new national policy for renewable energy sources. The extremely ambitious programme aims to install 22GW of electricity capacity by 2030, with about 12GW coming from renewables. To reach this target, it has been estimated that a total investment between US$60bn and US$120bn will be necessary. Algeria is in ninth place ahead only of Kuwait in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, in spite of its low energy import dependency and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress lag the regional average and, although certain country risk factors are more favourable than the regional norm, the country seems destined to tussle with Kuwait for the bottom slot of the league table.

Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 6 Algeria Power SWOT ... 6 Global Industry Overview .. 7 Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 7 Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 8 Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) 9 Regional Overview . 11 Table: Total Generation Data ... 11 Table: Total Consumption Data 12 Table: Electrcity Generation Capacity Data 13 Market Overview ' Algeria.... 14 Regulation/Competition .. 14 Power Transmission .. 14 Business Environment Rankings ... 16 Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings... 16

Algeria Power Report 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Regional Power Business Environment Ratings .... 16 Algeria Power Rating ' Overview . 16 Algeria Power Rating ' Rewards ... 17 Algeria Power Rating ' Risks ... 17 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 18 Table: Algeria Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 18 Table: Algeria Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) 20 Table: Algeria Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 22 Table: Algeria Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 22 Table: Algeria Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 22 Table: Algeria Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 22 Table: Algeria Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 22 Table: Algeria Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh).. 23 Table: Algeria Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) 23 Table: Algeria Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ... 24 Table: Algeria Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) 25 Table: Algeria Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) .. 26 Algeria Power Outlook ... 27 Generation .. 27 Gas-fired 28 Oil-fired . 28 Coal-fired ... 28 Nuclear Energy 28 Hydro-electric .. 29 Renewable Energy 29 Transmission .... 29 Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario 30 Competitive Landscape ... 31 Executive Summary .... 31 SNC Lavalin ' Summary . 31 Sonelgaz ' Summary .. 32 Glossary Of Terms . 33 Glossary Of Terms 33 BMI Forecast Modelling ... 34 How we generate our industry forecasts .. 34 Power Industry 34 Cross checks .... 35 Sources .. 35

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Algeria Power Report 2011  

The newly published Algeria Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will increase from an estimated 33TWh in 20...

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