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MARKET REPORT YEAR END REVIEW

In this review of 2015 market activity in the Puget Sound, we explore markets in seven key counties of Western Washington State: King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, Skagit, Jefferson and Island counties.


Realogics Sotheby's is a boutique real estate firm of 140+ brokers that consistently ranks among the top producing firms within the markets that it serves, with strategically placed branches in downtown Seattle, Bainbridge Island, Kirkland and Issaquah. Since commencing operations in 2010, RSIR has grown substantially as it is ranked among the top ten largest real estate brands in Puget Sound according to the Puget Sound Business Journal and NWMLS research.


TABLE OF C ONTENT S 04 // AT THE FOREFRONT // 05 // EXECUTIVE SUMMARY // 06 // EC ONOMIC OUTPUT S // 07 // REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVERS // 12 // KEY TRENDS T O WAT CH IN 2016 // 14 // AROUND THE PUGET SOUND // 16 // ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S // 25 // SELECTED C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 58 // OUR PHILOSOPHY // 60 // INDEX // 61 // REFERENCES //


4 / / AT THE FOREFRONT //

AT T H E F O R E F R O N T

R

ealogics Sotheby’s International Realty is proud to present this inaugural edition of the Puget Sound Real Estate Trends and 2015 Year in Review. In order to provide the necessary context, we have explored macroeconomic trends and the primary demand drivers influencing our regional real estate market. We also dig deeper into the many micro markets that vary greatly from neighborhood to neighborhood. Leading this effort is William Hillis, a newly appointed Research Editor and Publisher for our firm. As our service area has expanded so does our need to maintain real time data to inform our brokers and our valued clients alike. As always, for the most current market information around the corner or around the world, I encourage you to reach out to one of our Global Real Estate Advisors by visiting www.RSIR.com. Kind regards,

Dean Jones

President & CEO Realogics Sotheby's International Realty


// EXECUTIVE SUMMARY // 5

E X E C U T I V E SUM M A RY

T

he year 2015 witnessed white-hot real estate conditions throughout Puget Sound not seen since before the Great Recession. A similar trajectory is expected in 2016: expanding demand, anemic supply and developers playing catch up to increasing homeownership levels. According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index Seattle led most competing cities, including New York, Boston, Dallas and Los Angeles on year-to-date home price. The average price of existing single-family homes in King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties in aggregate shows an index gain of 8.77 percent year-over-year in all areas reported by the Northwest Multiple Listings Service (NWMLS), with some localized price gains posting even higher. Home prices in the broader region are now just 3.4 percent shy of the last cycle peak, recorded during the summer of 2007. The Seattle housing market recovered more than three times faster than the national average. A report by Zillow states that Seattle area homes are now worth a staggering $41 billion more than they were just one year ago. With a supply and demand imbalance, prices are expected to continue their journey higher, despite more modest increases in forward-looking employment trends. Job growth may have peaked in 2015 at 54,000, or 3.5 percent annually but major employers are also urbanizing and housing demand follows. Many comparisons are being made between San Francisco and Seattle now that our “Silicon Forest” comprises 138,000 tech jobs and is the second fastest-growing in the U.S., according to the New York Times. This article further highlights the increased housing costs and mounting traffic challenges alluding to San Francisco as a harbinger of what’s to come for Seattle. According to the Seattle Times, “Nowhere, though, has there been a more concerted effort to create a San Francisco-like tech scene with fewer downsides than in Seattle, the country’s second-biggest tech hub by some measures.” Most relocating to the region will rent for a while, which has buoyed an unprecedented apartment boom. With nearly 50 percent rent growth in just five years, these new rental towers are incubating a bounty of future homebuyers. Seattle rents are now the eighth highest in the country, averaging $1,922 per month across the region compared with the national average of $1,382. Buy vs. rent analysis (combined with tax benefits) will lure a growing number of Millennial consumers (the greatest demographic population in both the cities of Seattle and Bellevue) to explore ownership.

Not surprisingly, home values have eclipsed their prior cycle heights in those infill neighborhoods closest to the job centers of downtown Seattle and in Bellevue. While the number of closed sales in King County was 8.7 percent higher year-overyear, high-end sales were up 39.5 percent in King County, 58.3 percent in Seattle, and an even 30 percent on the Eastside. These rates are sharply higher even when comparing to the rapid growth of the preceding year. In other news, the Seattle/Bellevue metro area experienced a rise in Asian investment, most notably from China as cash buyers seek financial safe harbor in the closest mainland port to Asia. This effect was especially felt on the affluent Eastside communities in and around West Bellevue, where RSIR brokers believe foreign nationals from China represented at least 40-percent of the market demand above $3 million. As a headwind, mortgage rates are due to rise, reducing affordability for some households, especially when coupled with increasing home values. Fortunately, income is forecast to grow from $75,000 to $85,000, or 17.5 percent, over the next five years. Overall the greater Puget Sound region sustained its position as one of the most dynamic growth markets in the US during 2015, and 2016 appears to be serving up a repeat performance.

William Hillis

Research Editor and Publisher William Hillis was formerly an editor and researcher with two Big Four accounting firms spanning nearly a decade in Shanghai, China; and earlier in his career, with the Washington State Department of Transportation in Olympia. In China, he published newspaper articles, conference proceedings, thought leadership, and executive reports for multinational companies. Here in his home state of Washington, he edited official government publications and drafted reports to the Transportation Commission and the Washington State Legislature. Hillis joins Realogics Sotheby's International Realty as Research Editor and Publisher drawing upon his analytical mindset, experience as a licensed real estate broker and a global citizen.


6 / / EC ONOMIC INPUT S //

E C O N OM IC INPUTS REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY

P

rices of real estate throughout the Puget Sound catapulted higher in 2015, the result of tight supply and an influx of new buyers. According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Seattle led most competing cities on home price increases during 2015, including New York, Boston, Dallas and Los Angeles. The latest reporting data (November 2015) for the average price of existing single-family homes in King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties in aggregate show the index has risen by 9.6 percent year-to-date. Meanwhile, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) shows home prices accelerated to an 8.8 percent gain year-over-year in all reporting areas of Washington state, with some localized price gains even higher. Home prices in the

The Seattle housing market recovered more than three times faster than the national average.

broader region are now just 3.4 percent shy of the last cycle peak, during the summer of 2007. In fact, the Seattle housing market recovered more than three times faster than the national average. Although inventories had been tightening for the past three years, the region’s homebuilders were nonetheless unprepared for the surge of new buyers this year, having adjusted to conditions in the aftermath of the financial crisis by renting out properties and scaling back for-sale development plans. Incomes and increasing rates of homeownership in the region are expected to carry demand forward despite higher mortgage rates and reduced prospects for employment growth.

1.3% November 2015 Rising Index For Single Family

9.6%

Ye a r - t o - D a t e Rising Index For Single Family


// REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVERS // 7 280 260 Los Angeles 240 220 200

S a n Fra n c i s c o Seattle

180 160

N e w Yo r k

Boston

140 Po r t l a n d 120 Dallas 100

C a s e-S hill e r Indi ce s Since 2000 | Cit y C ompar i s on

R E A L E STAT E DEMAND DRIVERS

T

he Puget Sound region has taken a different path from other boomtowns in North America whose economies are based on resource extraction (e.g., oil), financial intermediation, or entertainment. Here, Seattle’s aerospace industry has gradually yielded its eminence to the service expansion and new product development cycles of the information tech industry—driven by leaders such as Amazon, Tableau, and F5 Networks—and their secondary employment effects on IT contractors, food & beverage businesses, and real estate developers.

Office space demand is back to pre-recessionary levels. This is being partially met, though not filled, by new projects in the pipeline. According to a report by commercial real estate broker Jones Lang LaSalle,1 in Seattle and Bellevue over the next two years, over 5.9 million square feet of office space is scheduled to open, but only 35.1 percent of the space has been preleased. New office space is not inexpensive. The average asking rent is $48.50 per square foot per year, including expenses. That's a 42.7 percent premium over the average asking rate for all office space in the region.


8 / / REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVERS //

C O N T I N U E D | R E A L E STAT E DEMAND DRIVERS

Even with all this space coming to the market, it still looks as though landlords are in the driver's seat, because companies are looking for a total of 8 million square feet — and the region's vacancy rate of 10.2 percent is the lowest seen since 2007. Job growth peaked in 2015 at 54,000, or 3.5 percent annually; slower growth is forecast, with the rate potentially declining to 1.6 percent in 2019. Federal employment statistics tell us that as of October 2015, the industrial centers of King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties comprising the Seattle MSA were off their lows of July, when the region had recovered to pre-recession unemployment levels.2 A survey by employment consultants Robert Half announced late in the year that only 16 percent of Seattle high-tech employers planned further expansions in the first half of 2016, which implies reduced downstream growth prospects in the near-term.3 Still, unemployment rates in the Seattle area and King County currently remain respectively 0.3 and 0.7 percent lower than the national average, while Pierce County’s rate is nearly a full percentage point higher. The August 2015 rate for Kitsap County was equal to the U.S. average of 5.2 percent in that month.4 Among major occupational groups, business and finance tie at 7.5 percent with computer and mathematical jobs as the leading occupations in Seattle, Bellevue, and Everett. The latter employment category, however, pays nearly 32 percent more at the mean hourly rate, at which computing professionals in this region earn 25 percent more than their peers nationwide. In May 2014, the region’s 45,000 application software developers were reportedly earning

an average of $117,000 per year. The same report showed nearly 54,000 of the region’s workers in the architecture and engineering professions, including 8,460 aerospace engineers.5 These employment sectors, which have enabled the Puget Sound region to compete HAS DROPPED withCANADA other U.S. industrial centers for domestic homebuyers, have proven OUT OF THE TOP FIVE resilient in pastWHEN recessions. NATIONS IT They may need to prove that resilience again COMES TO INTEGRATING soon. Complicating DUE the picture for IMMIGRANTS, TO households are the effects of tighter POLICY CHANGES BY home lending. Mortgage rates are THAT RESTRICT dueOTTAWA to rise, reducing affordability for FAMILY REUNIFICATION some households when coupled with AND CITIZENSHIP. increasing home values. The current rate of homeownership is low. Singlefamily prices STAR increased 8.2 -THEhome TORONTO percent over the year, compared with an increase of 5.5 percent in the CaseShiller 20-City Index. Despite increasing prices, homeownership is expected to increase in localized areas. Income growth is strong; Seattle median income is forecast to grow from

$75,000 to $85,000, or 17.5 percent, over the next five years. Seattle rents are now the eighth highest in the country, averaging $1,922 per month across the region compared with the national average of $1,382. Experts anticipate that new residents in increasing numbers will be prompted by rising rents to explore homeownership. Homes in most areas of the region continue to be more affordable than competitive markets in centers such as San Francisco and Los Angeles. The current rush to buy is partly attributed to purchases made outside the historical home finance channel by new families and individuals cashing out equity, migrating into the area from other states and from overseas. According to state government statisticians, Washington State has not seen net outmigration since the recession of 1982, and the past three years have witnessed a pattern of growing in-migration from other states and abroad: 4.1 percent in 2013, 7.1 percent in 2014, and an estimated 8.2 percent in 2015.6 The state whose

Unemploy ment rates in the Seattle area and King County currently remain respectively 0.3% and 0.7% lower than the national average.


// REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVERS // 9

Puget Sound in particular benefits from the state’s importance as a gateway to trade with Asia

residents have left for Washington in the greatest numbers is California, which year-to-date (November 2015) has seen an exodus of 37,319 residents to Washington State, a year-over-year change of 15.6 percent. This shift began before California’s droughts were widely covered in the news, and follows a similar 15.9 percent increase from 2013 to 2014, and a 7.7 percent increase from 2012 to 2013. Other states seeing consistently high out-migration to Washington have included Oregon and Texas. Besides drawing new residents domestically from other U.S. states, Washington and the Puget Sound in particular also benefit from the state’s importance as a gateway to trade with Asia, as well as from international air travel to and from Sea-Tac International Airport. The Sound’s proximity to international communities across the broader region from Vancouver, British Columbia to Los Angeles and San Diego is also a factor, as is the superior quality of life in the Puget Sound region and its comparative affordability in

respect to those other markets. The global eminence that results from these features of our local economy has allowed Seattle and Bellevue to attract growing numbers of immigrants from overseas. In 2011 and 2012, Asia surpassed Europe and the combined North America/ Caribbean region as a source of immigrants to the U.S.; and of the Asian origins of U.S. immigration, China is out in front. Immigration from China to the U.S. has steadily exceeded that from India, whether for permanent resident status or on non-immigration visas. In 2013, more than 391,000 Chinese nationals came to the U.S. on student visas, a number 276 percent greater than those issued to Indian nationals, and exceeding even the number of visas issued to temporary workers from India. Alongside other immigration paths, such as the EB-5 investor visa program, study in the U.S. is preferred by many Chinese parents seeking to ensure their children’s post-secondary success.

Student visas also serve as a bridge to citizenship for the next generation. Satya Nadella, CEO of Redmond’s Microsoft, first came to the U.S. from India as a student before naturalizing as a U.S. citizen. The numbers of naturalizations in our state are still small compared with California and New York, but have grown steadily in recent years. Of course, Washington State and the Puget Sound region would not stand to benefit from overseas immigration without approved channels and destinations in place. As of the date of this report, Washington State was host to 49 of the 1,076 USCIS approved EB-5 Regional Centers for targeting immigrant investor funds. Washington is also home to a large number of private preparatory schools, colleges, and universities participating in the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP). Only these SEVP-certified

The past three years have witnessed a pattern of growing in-migration.


10 // REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVERS //

C O N T I N U E D | R E A L E STAT E DEMAND DRIVERS

School, whose student body is 45 percent ethnically Asian, with 32 percent of the total speaking a language other than English at home. The University of Washington is currently ranked No. 15 by the Shanghai Ranking of World Universities—higher than any other West Coast university outside of certain institutions in the state of California, which is more distant from Asia and generally more expensive than Seattle. As a result, in 2014, 52.7 percent of the foreign students at the University of Washington were from China.7

FOR THE CHINESE THE REAL ESTATE AXIOM IS: "LOCATION, EDUCATION AND ENVIRONMENT"

4,525 13,064

4,585 12,939

4,497 12,820

4,056

PERSONS NAT U R A L I Z E D AS RESIDENTS OF WA S H I N G T O N

12,774

schools can provide a student with an I-20 form required to obtain an F-1 student visa. There are 180 SEVP high schools in Washington State, 34 of them in Seattle. Those families with school-age children who have already converted to permanent residency or citizenship may enroll their children in one of the region’s many top-ranked public secondary schools. The Bellevue School District alone includes five of the state’s top high schools as ranked by U.S.News & World Report. Among them is fourth-ranked Newport High

2010

2011

2012

2013

Seattle MSA

Rest of WA


// REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVERS // 11

10 JAN 2016

SEVP Private Schools in the Puget Sound Region 1.

Lakeside School

2.

The Overlake School

3.

A n n i e Wr i g h t S c h o o l s

4.

The Bush School

5.

The Bear Creek School

6.

The Northwest School

7.

C h a r l e s Wr i g h t A c a d e m y

8.

University Prep

9.

Holy Names Academy

10.

We s t S o u n d A c a d e m y

11.

Seattle Preparatory School

12.

Spring Street Int'l School

13.

Forest Ridge School

14.

Shoreline Christian School

15.

Bellevue Christian School

STUDENT AND EXCHANGE VISITOR PROGRAM

C A SH BU Y E R S ARE NOT JUST A LU X U RY M A R K E T S T O RY

W

hile some buyers are cashing out more expensive homes in California and other states, buyers from the People's Republic of China likewise are extracting value accumulated over generations under a government monopoly on land that has restricted private sales in their country of origin. The shared dynamic is one of cashheavy purchases in the less expensive neighborhoods of Washington State, primarily those in the Puget Sound. This is not simply a luxury market story. Despite low interest rates, in times of tight real estate lending, cash buyers allow sellers to withdraw their own equity for down-market purchases and investments, causing transactions to cascade from one end of the residential value spectrum to the other.


2016

KEY TRENDS TO WATCH Most market pundits anticipate increasing housing demand and anemic inventories, which mean higher median home prices. While each submarket will respond differently to macroeconomic realities, we believe 2016 will see the following trends:

I

ncreasing Homeownership Levels: The threat of rising interest rates, increasing median home prices and the opportunity to benefit from income tax deductions as wages expand will entice more renters to seek ownership. We recognize most newcomers to the region will seek out rental housing until they stabilize in their new jobs, but several years of meteoric rent growth along with media reports that homeownership is getting further out of reach will further promote this transition. Meanwhile, exciting for-sale developments on the horizon will match increasing demand to purchase. Watch for new condominium tower announcements in 2016 in both downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue as developers shift their thinking and build into a new cycle, while in-city home prices continue to increase by double digits.

M

ore Demand from International Homebuyers and Developers: The Seattle/Bellevue metro area has emerged as a global city and is deemed a relative bargain by foreign buyers compared with alternative West Coast gateways, mostly from China. While the media seems focused on the high-profile purchases on the Eastside near popular school districts, this trend is actually evident throughout the central Puget Sound region. This market segment prefers new construction and is active with presale condominiums, hence several notable developers (from China and Taiwan) have made significant land investments and are planning sizable mixed-use neighborhoods in downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue.

S

lowdown in Rent Growth and Rising Cap Rates on Apartments: The gold rush for apartment development will slow down as a record number of new buildings are delivered in the Seattle area and competition leads to lease up concessions and greater price resistance on rents. Seattle has now become one of the top ten most expensive rental markets and there's an inversion taking place where it can actually be less expensive to own than lease as outlined by RSIR's #NoPlaceLikeOwn.com campaign. We believe there's been a premium paid for convenience in renting while new residents stabilize in their new job and their new city; but increasingly, renters will find ownership attractive. This, combined with a slower job growth forecast and higher land and construction costs, will likely cool down apartment building, meaning potentially less supply compared with what we've witnessed in the first half of this decade.


// KEY TRENDS T O WAT CH IN 2016 // 13

WHILE MANY OF THESE BUYERS CRAVE THE "AMERICAN DREAM" OF A SUBURBAN SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE, OTHERS WILL PREFER HIGH-RISE CONDOMINIUMS AND TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT.

G

reater Competition for Affordable Housing: Expect more competitive bidding on single-family homes priced below $700,000 in the neighborhoods surrounding the primary job centers as demand for homeownership increases. Now that median home prices are increasing on a sustained basis we expect more consumers vying for their slice of this bounty. This includes parents helping their children buy their first home leveraging gift money and new, lower down payment (5%) mortgages while for those earning moderate incomes the mortgage insurance is also tax deductible. Many are buying mid-century fixers in neighborhoods further and further away from the urban core in search of affordability. Meanwhile, higher density redevelopment and in-fill housing is a continuing trend as speculative developers are preferring to build townhomes, duplexes and cluster housing (i.e. cottages) that strive to balance new and affordable (albeit this scenario is typically occurring at price points above $700,000).

M

ore Emphasis on Transportation Oriented Development: Given the lack of affordable housing options near the urban core, developers and consumers are left to consider commuting corridors and emerging markets near light rail stops, park-and-ride lots and even the Washington State Ferry system. We have already seen redevelopment along existing Link light rail corridors in areas such as Rainier Valley and Columbia City, and developers are active along planned stops including 65th and Roosevelt. Future connections that will tie North Mercer Island to the Bel-Red Corridor on the Eastside are also going to be areas of growth as workers explore solutions to the increasing epidemic of commute times into the city center.

To stay current on all the trends affecting Puget Sound real estate, join our Passport Registry to receive newsletters and periodic market reports www.rsir.com/contact-us

DID YOU KNOW? 15 FEBRUARY 2015 “The US Commerce Department projects that President Obama’s new visa policy which extends validity limits to 10 years for Chinese leisure and business visitors and 5 years for student travelers and significantly eases the visa application process could mean that as many as 7.5mn Chinese visitors will come to the US by 2021,” three times as many as in 2013 (Forbes).


14 // AROUND THE PUGET SOUND //

A R OU N D T H E P U G E T S OU N D

W

ithin the past two years, the inventory of housing for sale in Western Washington State has completed a large bell-shaped curve, returning to degrees of shortage not seen since the year 2005. The impact is most remarkable in the Greater Seattle area of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. This region of central Puget Sound has remained a seller’s market since January 2015, with inventories in most areas remaining below four months for nearly the entire year.

PUGET SOUND MEDIAN PRICES BY COUNTY, 2013-15

$400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 ISH OM H O SN

T GI A SK

CE R E PI 2013

LS M NW

2014

NG KI

D AN L IS

2015

AP S T KI

ON S R FE F JE


// AROUND THE PUGET SOUND // 15

SNOHOMISH This tri-county region is host to key employers in Western Washington, along with many of their customers and contractors. The areas where these employers are located enjoy the employment-related housing demand described in Section I that keeps inventories down and prices up. Areas of Kitsap County share this dynamic to a lesser degree due to the option of commuting by ferry. Employment-related demand is far less keenly felt in counties further away from the largest employers, whose housing markets instead tend to rely on growth from retiring workers and owners of second homes. Therefore, areas of these markets, such as Skagit and Jefferson counties, see different trends in inventories and prices than those exhibited among the communities of central Puget Sound. Other attractions to the seven counties that are subjects of this report include the region’s arts and entertainment venues, as well as the top schools throughout western Washington. All seven of these counties benefit from the region’s natural beauty and outdoor recreation opportunities, as well as its reputation of inclusiveness and hospitality to visitors and new residents from across the country and around the world.

2014-15 YEAR-OVER-YEAR GAIN IN MEDIAN PRICES BY COUNTY

9.8% SKAGIT

9.44% PIERCE

8.85% NWMLS

8.77% KING

8.75% ISLAND

8.11% KITSAP

7.92% JEFFERSON

4.05%


16 // ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S //

HOME TO ALL TEN OF WASHINGTON STATE’S FORTUNE 500

10 KING C OU N T Y A N N UA L R E P O RT

K

ing County is by far the most populous county in the state, an estimated 143% larger than second-ranked Pierce County on its southwest border. Washington State’s largest city, Seattle, and 16 of the 24 focused areas in Section III of this report are in King County. This county alone is credited with the largest plurality of state population growth within the past year: 38 percent (over 35,500) of new residents, with its neighbor Snohomish County to the north receiving the second-largest share of new growth, at 18 percent (16,600 newcomers).8 King and Snohomish counties, respectively, ranked third and fifth in the state by percentage growth. King County is home to all ten of Washington State’s Fortune 500 companies, with five of them headquartered in Seattle: Amazon, Starbucks, Nordstrom, Expeditors

FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES

International, and Alaska Air Group. Many of Washington State’s top-rated schools are also located here, including most of the SEVP private schools listed on page 11 of this report. The NWMLS classifies transactions of more than one million dollars as “high end sales,” and by far the greatest number of these sales occur in King County—specifically in Seattle and on the Eastside, where in 2015, more than 1,500 and 1,900 of these sales were closed, respectively. The number of these transactions has ballooned in recent years. In 2015, while the number of closed sales in King County generally were 8.7 percent higher year-over-year, high end sales was up 39.5 percent in King County, 53.8 percent in Seattle, and 30 percent on the Eastside. These rates are sharply higher even from the rapid growth of


// ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S // 17

1.4

Among the counties, Snohomish was a distant second in the number of high end sales closed, with 160 such transactions (although this was a 95.1 percent yearover-year increase). Pierce County was

AVG. MONTHLY SUPPLY OF HOMES

VIEWS OF LAKE WASHINGTON

the preceding year (2013-14): 25.2 percent, 21.8 percent, and 26.4 percent, respectively. One reason for Seattle’s growth was the addition of new construction high-rise condominiums, the first of their kind in more than five years, adding exciting new inventory for residents to move up or move down to. According to brokers at Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty, there are “far more would-be buyers” that would sell their existing home, but fear not being able to find a suitable replacement, hence the actual demand for new housing is far greater than what is suggested by the 2015 statistics.

BROKERS AT REALOGICS SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY SAY THERE ARE "FAR MORE WOULD-BE BUYERS" THAT WOULD SELL THEIR EXISTING HOME, BUT FEAR NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND A SUITABLE REPLACEMENT.

PERGOLA IN HISTORIC PIONEER SQUARE

third, with the remaining counties in the Puget Sound region in double digits or fewer. Growth in King County has not been limited to the most affluent neighborhoods. From April 2010 to April 2015, homebuilders in King County added nearly 11,900 singlefamily residences (SFRs) and over 30,000 multifamily units to the county’s housing stock, for totals exceeding 506,000 in the first of these categories and 369,000 in the second (and fiveyear increases of 2.4 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively). Of the 809,000 occupied units, 42.5 percent were rented.9 The NWMLS reported over 78,500 active listings during the year, 39,531 of them new. Only 10.7 percent of this county’s housing stock is built on unincorporated land, less than any of the other counties surveyed. Under the influence of growth management restrictions and increasing costs of construction, the

median price of newly-constructed homes in King County was $631,000, an increase of 11.0 percent over the 2014 median for new construction. King County has been a strong seller’s market for a fourth consecutive year (since 2011).10 The average monthly supply11 of homes for sale remains lower than any other county served by the NWMLS, averaging 1.4 months in 2015, down from 1.9 months in both 2013 and 2014. The county’s combined SFR and condominium monthly sales volume peaked in June 2015 at $2.11 billion. The annual median price of all homes in King County was $435,000, a year-over-year increase of 8.75 percent. With the multi-year decline in the inventories of homes for sale, annual median prices of all homes were generally higher throughout the central Puget Sound: by 8.75 percent in King County, 8.85 percent in Pierce County, and 9.82 percent in Snohomish County.


Pierce

Kitsap

815

993

2014

2013

2014

2014

18 // ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S // 2066

75

2587

70 82 67

75

King – Seattle

King – Eastside

SALES OF "HIGH-END" HOMES IN THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND

2013

70 82 67

Other King County

Pierce

Snohomish King – Seattle

King – Eastside

Kitsap

Pierce

Other King County

Snohomish

Kitsap

993

2014

2015

993 49

83

49 59 75

70 82 67 105

160

2014

114 94

2014 993

815

2587

1568

2013

2014

2015 2587 3598

2066

2587

King – Seattle King – Seattle

King – Eastside

Other King County

King – Seattle Kitsap

Pierce

Snohomish King – Seattle

King – Eastside

2014

105

160

Snohomish

King – Eastside

Pierce Pierce

Other King County Other King County

Snohom

Snohomish

Kitsap

Kitsap

2015 105

993

King – Eastside

Snohomish King – Seattle

Kitsap

70 82 67

P I E R C2015 E C OU N T Y 75

Other King County

Other King County Pierce Kitsap

2015Pierce

2014

T

King – Eastside

160

114 94

In 2015, Pierce County shifted from a balanced market to a seller’s market, with average monthly supply tightening to 2.7 from 3.6 in 2014 and 3.4 in 2013. 114 94 1568 The monthly median home price 2015 peaked in August 2015 at $252,500; and the annual median was $246,000, a year-over-year increase of 8.85 percent.3598

he state’s second most populous county, Pierce County is itself 11.5 percent more populated than third-2587 ranking Snohomish County. Tacoma, the largest city in the county and thirdlargest in the state, is a major Pacific Rim container port. For international 1568 students, the city is alsoOther King County home to 11 SnohomishKing – Seattle King – Seattle King – Eastside King – Eastside SEVP private schools and 21 SEVP high 2015 Pierce Pierce Kitsap schools.

Of Pierce County’s many desirable communities, only Gig Harbor and Fox 114 94 160 are covered in this report. Others Island 105 not included are Spanaway, Bonney Lake, and Eatonville.

1568

2015 Other King County

Snohomish

Kitsap

2015 In 2015, Pierce County was estimated

3598

to have received 8,820 new residents, 114 94 160 percent growth year over indicating105 1.07 year.12 Since 2010, the county has added more than 3,400 multifamily units, up by 4.25 percent, and 8,700 SFRs, an increase of 3.97 percent.13 About 43 1568 percent of the county’s housing stock is 2015 land. In 2015, built on unincorporated the cities of Puyallup and Milton saw annexations of 0.228 and 0.141 square 3598 King – Seattle King – Eastside miles respectively.14 Pierce

3598

King – Seattle Other King County Kitsap

King – Eastside

Snohomish

Pierce

Other King County Kitsap

Snohom


// ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S // 19

SNOHOMISH COUNTY SAW 16,600 NEW RESIDENTS IN 2015, MORE THAN ANY COUNTY BUT KING COUNTY.

Just over 42 % of the county’s housing stock is built on unincorporated land.

SN O HOM I SH C OU N T Y

S

nohomish County’s median price in 2015 was nearly $335,000, a 9.83 percent increase over 2014 prices. Some of this growth has occurred naturally due to the quality of life in this county, which is midway between city amenities in Seattle and the natural wonders of the North Cascades. Another factor, however, is the pricing out of middle-class households from the gentrifying urban neighborhoods and suburbanizing rural areas of King County. As mentioned before, Snohomish County saw 16,600 new residents in 2015, more than any county but King County. Yet on a percentage basis, Snohomish County grew at a faster rate than the state leader, by 2.24 percent to

King County’s 1.76 percent.15 Like its more populous neighbor, Snohomish County has been a seller’s market for homes since 2012. This year, the supply tightened to 1.9 months from 2.6 in 2014 and 2.1 the year before. Monthly home sales volume topped half a billion dollars ($516 million) in June, with the median SFR and condo price peaking just short of $348,000 in the same month. The greater amount of open space recently converted from farmland is contributing to the growth in Snohomish County. Just over 42 percent of the county’s housing stock is built on unincorporated land,16 similar to the proportion in Pierce and Skagit counties, and contrasting with the 10.7 percent in King County. Between 2010 and 2015, Snohomish County saw municipal annexations of 18 parcels, including nearly a half square-mile

annexation by the city of Arlington.17 The number of SFRs in the county since 2010 increased by 4.7 percent (nearly 9,000 units), while the number of multifamily units rose by 6.6 percent (nearly 5,000) over the same period.18 Specific areas in Snohomish County that we address in our survey of the region include Southwest Snohomish County (e.g., Brier, Lynnwood, Edmonds, and Woodway), Northeast Snohomish County (Lake Stevens), in addition to Everett and Mukilteo.

Snohomish County has been a seller's market for homes since 2012.


KITSAP C OU N T Y

B

y a short ferry ride across Puget Sound, the Kitsap Peninsula and its adjacent islands offer waterfront homes; stunning city, sound, and mountain views; and an easy getaway to bucolic scenes westward toward Hood Canal and the Olympic Peninsula. Areas in Kitsap County selected for community profiles include Bainbridge Island and Poulsbo. The former’s proximity to Seattle means that Bainbridge Island in particular enjoys the best of exurban and rural lifestyles: for some, a place of refreshment after the daily commute. For others, a weekend hideaway or reward for retirement. Kitsap County is also home to military families and contractors at the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard at Bremerton. Like Pierce County, this year Kitsap County shifted from a balanced market to a seller’s market, with average monthly supply tightening to 2.7 from 4.1 in 2014 and 4.9 in 2013. The monthly median home price of all homes on the peninsula reached $285,000 in June 2015, and the annual median settled at $258,500, a 7.71 percent increase year-over-year. The county is sufficiently remote that new construction is more speculatively priced than that found in markets closer in. As a result, monthly median price changes for newly built homes in Kitsap County have seen more volatility over the past two years than new homes in the three counties of the Seattle MSA; nevertheless, the trend in 2015 was higher. New construction

peaked in November 2015 at $356,005, and the annual median was $318,100—12.4 percent higher than in 2014, the largest year-over-year increase in central Puget Sound. At 0.9 percent year-over-year, population growth in Kitsap County was the second slowest among the seven counties surveyed, and 21st among Washington’s 39 counties.19 Nearly 71 percent of homes in Kitsap County are SFRs, compared with 56.7 percent in King County. Slightly less than two-thirds (65.2 percent) of the former’s housing stock is on unincorporated land.20 This is six times the proportion in King County, but not as much as in Island or Jefferson counties—markets that are beyond the reach of most commuters, but provide remote workers and retirees with a soulful refuge from the city. These markets also provide insight on a commonly heard story of the last two years: the notorious bidding wars for real estate among buyers in western Washington. This was primarily a King County phenomenon—and within King County, it observably varied from one area to the next. Of the other six counties, only Snohomish saw significant amounts of such bidding. Markets further from Seattle were less likely to see bidding wars than seller price concessions as a result of their owners mispricing properties for sale.21


// ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S // 21

SKAGIT COUNTY SAW THE SECOND-HIGHEST PRICE GAINS YEAR-OVER-YEAR: 9.44 PERCENT, FOR AN ANNUAL MEDIAN PRICE OF $255,000.

110 YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGES IN DAYS ON MARKET 100BY COUNTY, 2014-15 BEFORE SALE: 90 80 70 60 50 40 20 127

109

JEFFERSON

75

61

96

78

Island -18.8%

KITSAP

King -15.4%

ISLAND

39

33

65

Pierce -7.7%

KING

County & Snohomish Skagit Change in DOM -12.0% -19.0%

PIERCE

0

60

10 84

2014

30

68

2015

SKAGIT

Skagit County, however, bears its own constraints to growth, which at least in the short run will sustain the value of current housing and approved development. The Skagit County Commission, various preservation groups, and other interested parties have acted aggressively to protect farmland and open space in the most arable regions of the Skagit Valley, driving new development south and east of Interstate 5, or west to Anacortes.

120

50

ith Snohomish County in the lead, Skagit County saw the second-highest price gains year-overyear: 9.44 percent, for an annual median price of $255,000. Of Skagit, Island, and Jefferson counties, Skagit is the most convenient as a commuter point of origin, as the other two counties require either the combination of a long drive with a ferry ride, or a very long drive without the ferry.

44

W

3.0 percent rate of growth, and only 79 new multifamily units—an increase of just one percent. Even for this exurban county, the comparative lack of new construction has caused the average monthly supply of homes to tighten to 3.7 months, the bottom edge of a balanced market. As a result, the median price of new construction rose in Skagit County almost as quickly as it did in Kitsap County: 12 percent yearover-year in 2015.

Fidalgo Island and Anacortes are among the areas more closely examined in the profile for Anacortes. Year-overyear, Skagit County’s population grew at a slightly greater percentage rate than in Kitsap County (0.94 percent to Kitsap’s 0.9 percent); but in the rural Skagit, this only comprised 1,120 new residents. Forty-three percent of housing units in Skagit County are located in unincorporated areas.22 From 2010 through 2015, builders in the county added 1,115 new SFRs, a

SNOHOMISH

SKAG I T C OU N T Y

Kitsap Jefferson -18.7% -14.2%


22 // ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S //

I SL A N D C OU N T Y

B

oth Island and Jefferson counties are considerably more remote than those previously discussed. Island County is just close enough to major employment centers in King County to allow travel to work by its most resilient commuters who are employed there.23

Island County’s largest employer is the U.S. Navy, primarily at Naval Air Station Whidbey, north of Oak Harbor on Whidbey Island. This island is the fourth longest and fourth largest in the contiguous United States; Coupeville at its center is the county seat. Although two elementary schools are located on Camano Island, this second major island in the county is primarily a retirement haven and a vacation retreat. It is profiled later in this report. There are no incorporated towns on Camano Island, and none but Langley south of Coupeville on Whidbey Island. Therefore, 72.3 percent of the county’s housing units are built on unincorporated land, more than any of the other six counties surveyed.24 Year over year, Island County’s 2015 population grew by just 0.75 percent; however, 85 percent of that growth was in the unincorporated areas to which Camano Island contributes substantially.25 From 2010 through 2015, the number of multifamily units in the county increased by 1.2 percent, and SFRs increased by 2.7 percent. Despite this slow rate of new home construction, the average monthly supply in Island County is also approaching what are normally considered seller’s market levels, having tightened to 3.9 months in 2015 from 5.8 months last year, and 7.3 months just two years ago. The monthly median price of SFRs and condos here peaked at $307,500 in October and the county ended the year with an annual median price of $280,000, 8.11 percent higher than the median for 2014.


// ANNUAL C OUNT Y REPORT S // 23

J E F F E R S O N C OU N T Y PORT TOWNSEND AND ITS NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES ENJOY THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS OF SUN IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST — AND FOR BOAT OWNERS, ITS COASTAL VILLAGES ARE ONLY A 4 TO 7 HOUR CRUISE FROM THE RECREATION OF THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

B

anding the Olympic Peninsula from the Admiralty Inlet and Hood Canal in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, Jefferson County stretches from the resort community of Port Ludlow and historic Port Townsend into the remote wilderness of the Olympic National Park. Port Ludlow is among the areas profiled in this report. Although home to many small businesses, Jefferson County is highly dependent on tourism and secondhome investment. In 2015, year-overyear population increased less than any other county surveyed—by only 0.59 percent—and was estimated to have suffered a natural decrease of more than 900 residents.26 Port Townsend is the only incorporated town in Jefferson County, and 74 percent of the county’s multifamily housing units are located there. The number of single family residences, which comprise 75 percent of the county’s housing stock, increased by just short of three percent from 2010 to 2015.27 At 6.4 months in inventory, the 2015 average supply has been balanced. Although higher than other subject counties, it is far more constrained than in 2014 at 9.5 months, and 2013 at 10.8 months. Both the annual median price and the year-over-year increase in Jefferson County were lower

than those reported for other counties: $269,500 and 3.85 percent, respectively. Buyers in these locations should not purchase with the intent to flip, and sellers here can especially benefit from professional staging and marketing of their properties for sale. As eastern Jefferson County lies in the “Olympic rain shadow,” Port Townsend and its neighboring communities enjoy the greatest number of days of sun in the Pacific Northwest—and for boat owners, its coastal villages are only a four to

THE NUMBER OF SINGLEFAMILY RESIDENCES, WHICH COMPRISE 75% OF THE COUNTY'S HOUSING STOCK, INCREASED BY JUST SHORT OF 3% FROM 2010 TO 2015. seven hour cruise from the recreation of the San Juan Islands. Brokers with Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty report a rise in interest of California homebuyers in these and other towns on the Olympic Peninsula. As secondhome owners and retirees discover the combined benefits of low taxes, relative affordability and lifestyle attractions, this market is likely to make gains on its peers closer in.


24 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

U LT R A H IG H N ET WORT H ( U H N W ) DEMAND FOR RESIDE NTIA L PROPE RT Y: GROWING FAST

8.9% 6.0% 13.1%

5.5%

12.9%

6.2%

6.0%

8.9%

5.8%

NORTH AMERICA

EUROPE

ASIA

The total wealth in North America grew to US $10,265 billion. The number of UHNW individuals increased 6.2% to 74,865.

Europe remains a significant region for UHNW individuals, growing to US $8,355 billion with 61,820 UHNW individuals.

In Asia, the total wealth increased by 5.8% to US $6,975 billion with a 4.8% expansion of UHNW individuals to total 46,635.


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 25

SE L E C T E D C OM M U N I T I E S I N P U G E T S OU N D

T

he aforementioned 8.77 percent gain in median home sale prices recorded for homes in regions covered by the NWMLS was actually surpassed in many areas served by Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty (RSIR). In 19 of 29 areas studied, median prices were higher year-over-year than the overall figure reported.

In this section we describe some of the key draws for homebuyers and other features of each of these 29 areas, followed in each case by statistics from the 2015 home-buying year.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRICE GAIN

YOY Median Price Gain Redmond/Carnation Port Ludlow Anacortes Juanita/Woodinville East Side South NWMLS Everett/Mukilteo Bellevue East of I-405 Northeast Snohomish East of Sammamish North Seattle Mercer Island Central Seattle Kirkland/Bridle Trails Queen Anne/Magnolia Camano Island Southwest Snohomish West Seattle Bainbridge Island Ballard/Green Lake Southeast Seattle Bellevue West of I-405 Burien/Normandy Park Poulsbo Belltown/Downtown 0.0%

2.1% 3.2% 3.3% 7.6% 8.2% 8.8% 9.2% 9.6% 10.1% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9% 11.1% 11.5% 12.2% 12.4% 12.7% 13.0% 13.4% 13.5% 15.5% 17.6% 17.8% 19.0%

THE STATISTICS IN THIS SECTION HAVE BEEN EXTRACTED FROM THE NWMLS DATABASE AND ANALYZED BY RSIR. AS SUCH, THE NWMLS REQUIRES NOTICE THAT THEY ARE NOT COMPILED OR PUBLISHED BY THE NORTHWEST MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE.

30.2% 5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35


26 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

STEADY AND GROWING SUPPLY OF NEW CONDOMINIUMS

Downtown, Seattle $1,680,000 USD

B E L LT OW N & D OW N T OW N SE AT T L E

B

elltown is named for William Nathaniel Bell, one of the original settlers whose heavily forested land became downtown Seattle. The Belltown/Downtown area is where many Seattle landmarks like Pike Place Market and Smith Tower are found. Fortune 500 companies Nordstrom and Expeditors International are headquartered here. Among the many ongoing projects downtown, work began in June 2015 to lay the foundation for Weyerhaeuser’s new headquarters in Pioneer Square, to be opened in 2016; and the Pioneer Building on First Avenue has been purchased

for redevelopment as co-working space and suites for small businesses and entrepreneurs.28 The pioneers’ clapboard houses are long gone and virtually all recorded sales are now of mid-rise and high-rise condominiums in this vibrant, 21st century city. The year 2015 saw extraordinary shifts in demand relative to supply in this part of Seattle. After two years of a balanced market tending to favor sellers, in 2015 the inventory of homes for sale plunged from four months in January to less than two weeks in July, recovering to two-and-a-half months by October.


$596,000

$400,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+11.5%

$500,000

+4.9%

$500,000

$534,500

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

$596,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+11.5%

$600,000

$534,500

+4.9%

$600,000

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 Jan

% Chg YOY

Belltown/Downtown Belltown/Downtown Median Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $600,000 $500,000

$600,000

$561,000

$500,000 $430,000

$300,000

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$300,000 $200,000

$100,000

$100,000 +3.4%

$200,000

$-

+16.0%

$-

2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

Mar

2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

May Jan

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Belltown/Downtown Belltown/Downtown Seattle: Seattle: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+20.0%

$400,000

+3.4%

$400,000

$430,000

+20.0% $561,000

// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 27

20142013

20152014

2015

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Ballard/Green Ballard/Green Lake: Months Lake: In Months In Ballard/Green Ballard/Green Lake MedianLake Median DOWNTOWN ENDED WITH THE HIGHEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRICE GAINS OBSERVED—NEARLY NINE TIMES Inventory Inventory Price Year-Over-Year Price SEATTLE Year-Over-Year $600,000

$545,000

$479,975 $500,000

$479,975

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

$-

+9.3%

$200,000

+9.3%

$300,000

$400,000 IN-CITY LIVING $300,000

$400,000

$2014 Median Price

2015 2014 Median % ChgPrice YOY

+20.0%

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+13.5%

$500,000

THE ADVANCE SEEN IN 2014. PRICES TURNED HIGHER IN THE WINTER, THEN SPIKED UPWARD IN THE LATE SUMMER...

+13.5%

$600,000

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$545,000

2013

2

% Chg YOY

Downtown, Seattle $2,500,000 USD

1

0

20142013

20152014

2015

2

1

Sale prices in Belltown and Downtown Seattle ended with the highest yearover-year price gains observed—nearly nine times the advance seen in 2014. Prices turned higher in the winter, 0 then spiked upward in the late Nov summer Jan Mar May Jan Mar Jul Sep May Jul Sep before ending 2015 just under $600,000. Research from Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty published in June 2015 predicted the explosive median home price increases seen in this area given the new construction deliveries of luxury condominium towers, which explain the market value spike— presales had been incubating for several years before delivery of the south tower of Insignia. We expect a steady and growing supply of new condominiums in response to demand that will keep

the median price rising. Rents in new apartment buildings can range upwards of $4.00 monthly per square foot, and the buy vs. rent analysis suggests that headroom remains for further home price increases.   Nov


Bainbridge Island Median Bainbridge Island Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $700,000

+20.0%

$700,000 $615,000

$600,000

$542,500

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+10.9%

$500,000

$-

$542,500

+13.4% +10.9%

$600,000

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

% ChgPrice YOY Median

Bainbridge Island: Bainbridge Island: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory +20.0%

2013

$615,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+13.4%

28 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

$380,000 $400,000

$350,000

$350,000

$300,000

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

+8.0%

$250,000 $200,000

$-

$2014

Wa s h i n g to n Pa r k , Sea t t l e $2,200,000 USD

$380,000

2015 2014

Median Price

% ChgPrice YOY Median

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

Central Seattle has been a seller’s market since early 2013. In recent years, this market has established a pattern of loosening in January and late summer, then tightening through the fall and

$500,000

$550,000

2013

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

$495,000

$200,000 $100,000 $2014 Median Price

2015 2014 % ChgPrice YOY Median

+11.1%

+11.1% +9.0%

$300,000

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

% Chg YOY

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

20142013

20152014

2015

0 Jan

+20.0%

$550,000

May Jan

+0.0%

$400,000

+9.0%

C

$500,000

entral Seattle includes, among many others, the communities of Broadmoor, Capitol Hill, $400,000 Denny Blaine, Madrona, and Washington Park. The Washington Park Arboretum is one of the$300,000 worldrenown institutions in this area. Garfield$200,000 High School, the state’s 12th ranked public high school is located here.29 There are over a dozen$100,000 SEVP schools in this area, including the Northwest School $just blocks from downtown, Seattle Preparatory School overlooking Portage Bay, Holy Names Academy in Stevens, and The Bush School on the north side of Harrison Ridge.30 Three of the nation’s leading hospitals are proximate—Virginia Mason, Harborview, and Swedish Medical Center—and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center is at South Lake Union. Though not in this area, the Amazon campus is very close by.

$600,000

$495,000

Mar

4

C E N T R A L SE AT T L ECentral SeattleCentral Median PriceMedian Price Seattle Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year OV E RV I EW $600,000

2015

Southeast Seattle: Southeast Seattle: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

$438,750

+15.5%

$400,000

+20.0% $438,750

+15.5%

$450,000

+8.0%

$500,000

$450,000

20152014

0 Jan

Southeast Seattle Median PriceMedian Price Southeast Seattle Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year $500,000

20142013

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Central Seattle: Months In Months In Central Seattle: Inventory Inventory 2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

20142013

20152014

2015

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

spring, respectively. Months in inventory have been gradually trending downward, averaging 1.2 in 2015, 1.6 in 2014, and 1.9 in 2013. In 2015, the median price of a home in Central Seattle exceeded that of King County by 26.4 percent. This is one of the areas discussed in which high end sales of homes are concentrated. Price volatility this year meant that although prices in this area were already considerably higher than the county median, the indexed monthly change for Central Seattle might have ended this two-year run with a proportional price gain similar to that of the county (8.77 percent), had it not been for a $121,000 pop up in December. In 2015, sellers benefited from competition among buyers, as this is one of the areas seeing substantially higher-than-list prices paid.

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 29

Queen Anne, Seattle $1,125,000 USD

$600,000 $534,500

+20.0% $596,000 $534,500

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000

+20.0%

$596,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+11.5%

$600,000

he Queen Anne/Magnolia area of Seattle $500,000 comprises these two areas as well as a western portion of South Lake Union, near Amazon's $400,000 campus. Magnolia is the site of Discovery Park and $300,000 The Homes at Fort Lawton, a community of restored $200,000 homes offered by Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty. This area includes The Center School,$100,000 one of the top-rated public high schools in Washington.31 $It also includes the Seattle waterfront northwest of Belltown, where F5 Networks’ headquarters are located.

$700,000

+11.5%

$700,000

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2013 3

3

2

2

1

1

$200,000 $100,000

+4.9%

T

Queen Anne/Magnolia: Months Queen Anne/Magnolia: Months In Inventory In Inventory

Queen Anne/Magnolia Median Queen Anne/Magnolia Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+4.9%

QU E E N A N N E / M AG N O L IA

$2014 2015

2014 Median Price

Median % Chg Price YOY

20152014

2015

0

0

% Chg YOY

20142013

Jan

Jan May

Mar

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Nov

$-

+3.4%

$100,000

$100,000

2014

$-

+3.4%

Expedia.com’s forthcoming move from Bellevue leading employers. So it should not come as a surprise that homes here have been Median Belltown/Downtown Seattle: Belltown/Downtown in high Belltown/Downtown demand,Median with the market supply scarcelyBelltown/Downtown exceeding six weeksSeattle: in all of 2015. to its new campus along the Interbay waterfront Price Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory Price Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory Days in inventory averaged 34 in 2015, 51 in 2014, and 57 in 2013. between Queen Anne and Magnolia is expected to +20.0% $600,000 $561,000 +20.0% $600,000 2015 $561,000 2013 20142013 20152014 ultimately employ 4,500. Many employees will likely 5 their premium over King 5 maintained $500,000 in the Queen Anne/Magnolia area seek to reduce commute times from the Eastside in Properties $500,000 +16.0% $430,000 +16.0% $430,000median sale prices during the past year, with an 11.5 percent year-over-year favor of a Seattle address, helping yet again to drive County $400,000 4 4 median price gain more than twice that of 2014. The 2015 was 37 percent higher more demand for housing close to the urban $400,000 core. +12.0% +12.0% than the countywide median. The more volatile price trend reflects the market size $300,000 $300,000 3 3 qualities of properties for sale here. This area saw more Queen Anne and Magnolia are especially desirable limitations and the unique +8.0% +8.0% $200,000 competitive bidding within the past year, driving sale prices higher than the list price. $200,000 neighborhoods close to Amazon, one of Seattle’s

2014 2015

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2

2

1

1


30 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

SW KingSW Co/Browns Point Point King Co/Browns Median Price Year-Over-Year Median Price Year-Over-Year $300,000 $300,000

$273,975

$245,000 $245,000

$250,000 $250,000

$100,000 $100,000

C E N T R A L W E ST L A K E WA SH I N G T O N

$50,000 $50,000 $-

$2014

20142015

+20.0%  

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

Median Price Chg YOY% Chg YOY Median% Price

T

2013

+16.0%

+11.8%

+11.8%

+11.4%

$150,000 $150,000

+11.4%

$200,000 $200,000

+20.0%

$273,975

SW KingSW Co/Browns Point: Point: King Co/Browns Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+7.9%

+7.9%

+20.0%

+20.0%

$600,000 $600,000

+7.0%

+7.0%

+16.0% Most of the area was developed $590,000 $590,000 beginning in the 1920s and 1930s; there +12.0% is a high concentration of homes built $580,000 $580,000 between 1940 and 1970. Construction $570,000 $570,000 $565,000 $565,000 +8.0% costs here average $400 to $500 per $560,000 $560,000 square foot, with sale prices especially +4.0% in neighborhoods south of Madison $550,000 $550,000 Street comparable with Laurelhurst to $540,000 $540,000 +0.0% the north, Kirkland on the Eastside, 2014 2014 2015 2015 First Hill in Seattle and Mercer Island. Median Price Chg YOY% Chg YOY Median% Price Madison Park competes with these rival enclaves as one of the top waterfront   communities on Lake Washington.   Adjacent to Madison Park are the  

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

2013 11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8 7

+8.0%

6

6

5

5

+4.0%

4

4

3

3

2

2

+0.0%

+12.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

2015

1 Nov

Southwest Lake Washington: Southwest Lake Washington: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory 2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

2014 2013

2015 2014

2015

+8.0%

2015 2014

0 MarJan May Mar JulMay SepJul Nov Sep

2014 2013

0 Jan

+16.0%

Nov

1

+20.0%

2015

Central West Lake Washington: Central West Lake Washington: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

7

2015 2014

0 Mar Jan May Mar JulMay SepJul Nov Sep

Jan

+15.4%

+15.4%

Madison Street was cleared by former$600,000 $600,000 +8.0% Washington Territorial Judge John J.$400,000 $400,000 McGilvra directly from downtown +4.0% Seattle out to his 320-acre homestead,$200,000 $200,000 the first on the shores of Lake $+0.0% $2014 2014 2015 2015 Washington. Judge McGilvra originally Median Price Chg YOY% Chg YOY Median% Price set aside 21 acres of his estate for a park, and he and his associates built a cable   car line along the road to draw people out from the city to what became     Madison Park. Today, according to the Seattle Times, Madison Park’s beach is Southwest Lake Washington Southwest Lake Washington Median Price Year-Over-Year Median Price Year-Over-Year the domain of “hipsters, yoga moms, +20.0% families, and overly tanned hippies.” $610,000 $610,000 $604,375 $604,375

5

0

he central western shore of Central West Lake Washington Central West Lake Washington Lake Washington centers on the Median Price Year-Over-Year Median Price Year-Over-Year communities of Madison Park and +20.0% +20.0% $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $1,295,000 $1,295,000 Denny-Blaine. This area combines $1,200,000$1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 sunrise views of the Cascade Mountains +16.0% +16.0% with quick access to all the amenities of $1,000,000 $1,000,000 downtown Seattle. +12.0% +12.0% $800,000 $800,000

5

2014 2013

 

0 Jan

0 MarJan May Mar JulMay SepJul Nov Sep

Madison Park, Seattle $1,670,000 USD

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 31

MOST OF THE AREA WAS DEVELOPED BEGINNING IN THE 1920S AND 1930S; THERE IS A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF HOMES BUILT BETWEEN 1940 AND 1970.

Median prices across the Central West Lake Washington micro-market were well above one million dollars.

communities of Broadmoor to the west and Denny-Blaine along the lakeshore to the south. Broadmoor, a golf club and community, borders Washington Park, designed by the famous American architectural firm Olmsted Brothers. This neighborhood enjoys one of the highest median household incomes in Seattle, nearly $250,000. Together with its eastward-facing lakefront views, Denny-Blaine shares with Madison Park connections to Seattle’s early settlers. Charles and Viretta Denny and partner Elbert Blaine purchased this land and designed a series of hillside parks complementing the local topography. Also like Madison Park, its development flowered in the 1920s and 1930s, with many affluent families of Seattle building fine homes here. This is evident in the comparatively high median sale prices of homes in this community.

Median prices across the Central West Lake Washington micro-market were well above one million dollars. Prices continued to rise year-over-year, although at a somewhat reduced rate from 2014. Larger numbers of lower-priced sales kept median prices from advancing in each community when viewed separately. However, prices appeared to rise markedly among these communities when combined as a single market while appearing to decline or hold steady in those communities severally. This is a result of the way in which the median is computed when pooling the properties sold across all three communities and counting up: although these communities are somewhat distinct from each other, there are more than enough high-end homes among the three of them to draw the median price upward when they are looked at as a single market. Home-

buyers may benefit by bearing this in mind, considering and comparing properties in all three communities when searching for the right home. Similarly, Central West Lake Washington has been a seller’s market for most of the past two years, though more steadily so in Madison Park. There, the monthly inventory has haltingly declined to 2.1 in 2015, from 2.4 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2013. This is a shorter duration than in Denny-Blaine or Broadmoor, in whose smaller markets sales were more irregular. Most homebuyers in Central Seattle recognize the distinctive values of individual homes across this micro-market; they are not as likely to confine their search to one of these communities as they are to consider them together.


Queen Anne/Magnolia: Queen Anne/Magnolia: Months Months In InventoryIn Inventory

Queen Anne/Magnolia Median Queen Anne/Magnolia Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $700,000

$500,000

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

$534,500

$-

$-

2014

2014 2015

Price Median Price Median % Chg YOY

+20.0%

$596,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+11.5%

$600,000

+11.5%

$600,000

+20.0% $596,000 $534,500

+4.9%

$700,000

+4.9%

32 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2013 3

3

2

2

1

1

Jan

Belltown/Downtown Median Belltown/Downtown Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$500,000

$600,000 $500,000 $430,000

$400,000 $300,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$300,000

$100,000

$100,000 +3.4%

$200,000

$-

2014

Ballard, Seattle $825,000 USD

$430,000

2014 2015

Price Median Price Median % Chg YOY

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

$100,000 In addition to the town of Ballard, this area includes the communities of Wallingford between Lake $Union and Green Lake; Phinney Ridge west of Green Lake; and neighborhoods along the Puget Sound shore north of Ballard: Sunset Hill, North Beach, Blue Ridge, and Broadview north of Carkeek Park. The area offers the world-renowned, SEVP certified Lakeside Upper and Middle Schools attended by Bill Gates and Paul Allen, as well as U.S.News & World Report-ranked Ingraham High School, all in the Haller Lake neighborhood. Ballard High School in northeast Ballard is also highly ranked by U.S.News & World Report.32

The monthly supply of homes for sale in Ballard/ Green Lake tightened severely over the past year.

$545,000 $479,975

+16.0%

$200,000

+9.3% +13.5%

$400,000 $300,000

$100,000 $2014

+20.0% $545,000

2014 2015

Price Median Price Median % Chg YOY

+13.5%

$479,975 $500,000

+9.3%

I

$500,000

n recent years, the upscale transformation of William Ranking Ballard’s tract north of the $400,000 Salmon Bay Waterway has made Ballard/Green $300,000 Lake a twin of North Seattle on the Lake Washington side, as these are currently highly similar markets. $200,000

$600,000

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Nov

2013 2014

2014 2015

2015

Mar

Jan May

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Nov

Ballard/Green Lake: Ballard/Green Lake: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

2013 2

2

1

1

2013 2014

2014 2015

2015

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

% Chg YOY

Jan May

0 Jan

Ballard/Green Lake Median BALLARD / FREMONTBallard/Green Lake Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year GREEN LAKE $600,000

Mar

2013

0

% Chg YOY

2015

Belltown/Downtown Belltown/Downtown Seattle: Seattle: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+20.0%

$561,000 +20.0%

$400,000

$200,000

$-

$561,000

+3.4%

$600,000

2014 2015

0

0

% Chg YOY

2013 2014

0

0 Jan

Mar

Jan May

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Homes here have easy access to downtown and the area is highly regarded by young urban professionals. The duration of inventory shrank from 32 and 33 days in 2014 and 2013, respectively, to 21 days in 2015.   The 2015 median sale price in Ballard was more that 25 percent above the King County average—and gained ground over the year, rising by double-digits from 2015 and at the sixth-fastest rate of the areas studied. Month-to-month over the year, prices paid for homes in Ballard averaged 3.8 percent higher than the listing price, proving this area to have been a very hot market, and with North Seattle, ground zero for competitive bidding among buyers in 2015.

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 33

Burien/Normandy Park: Burien/Normandy Park: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

Burien/Normandy Park MedianPark Median Burien/Normandy Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$150,000 $100,000 $50,000

$200,000

$100,000

+16.0%

+12.0%

Median Price

% Chg YOY Median Price

4

4

3

+8.0% 2

+4.0% 1

+0.0%

2015

N 0o r t h A d0 m i r a l , S e a t t l e Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jul D $ 1 , 8Jan2 5 Mar , 0 0 May 0 US

% Chg YOY

West SeattleWest Median PriceMedian Year- Price YearSeattle Over-Year Over-Year

$100,000 $50,000

$400,000

$385,000

$350,000

+16.0%

+20.0% +16.0%

2013 5

+13.0%

+13.0%

$250,000 $200,000

+8.0%

$50,000 2014

$-

Median Price

+6.9%

$150,000 $100,000

+4.0% +0.0%

2015 2014 % Chg YOY Median Price

+12.0% +8.0%

Nov

2014 2013

2015 2014

2015

5

4

4

$300,000 +12.0%

Sep

West Seattle:West Seattle: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+24.0%

$435,000

+20.0%

3

3

2

2

+4.0% 1

1

+0.0%

2015

0

% Chg YOY

Jan

Mar

0

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

higher demand in 2015 resulted in competing bids on properties for sale. Poulsbo: Months in inventory Poulsbo: Months in inventory

Poulsbo Median PriceMedian Price Poulsbo Year-over-year Year-over-year $350,000 $274,900 $300,000

$250,000

$328,377

$274,900

+24.0%

$328,377

+20.0% +19.5%

Although price gains were generally lower than the $350,000 trend in King County in 2014, that deficit began to be erased in January 2015, so that the median price $300,000 of homes in West Seattle ended equal to the county $250,000 median for the year: $435,000, with a gain of 13.0 $200,000 percent from 2014. Similarly, while deviation from list prices followed the countywide pattern in$150,000 2014,

$385,000

+24.0% $435,000

+19.5%

he West Seattle area of the city of $350,000 Seattle includes the neighborhoods of Alki, Admiral, $300,000 North Admiral, Belvedere, Fauntleroy,$250,000 and Gatewood. Local media reports in 2015 indicated $200,000 that West Seattle, especially its northern and $150,000 western neighborhoods, have been a preferred $100,000 target for homebuyers moving from California’s $50,000 Bay Area.33 Chief Sealth High School in West $Seattle is ranked among the top public high schools in the state.34 Although the area has been a seller’s market for years, the monthly supply tightened markedly in 2015, bottoming at 19 days in June. The average monthly supply was 1.8, from 1.7 in 2014 and about a month the previous year.

$450,000

+16.0% +12.0%

$200,000

+8.0%

$150,000

+4.0%

$100,000

+0.0%

$50,000 4%

$400,000

$500,000

+6.9%

$450,000

.4%

$500,000

2015

+12.0%

1 2015 2014

2015 2014

+16.0%

2

+0.0%

2014 2013

5

3 +8.0%

$50,000

2014

T

5

+4.0%

$-

2013

+20.0%

$150,000

$-

W E ST SE AT T L E

$244,950

+20.0% $287,000

+17.2%

$250,000

+17.2%

$200,000

$244,950

$287,000

+9.8%

$250,000

$300,000

+9.8%

$300,000

2013 +24.0%

8

+20.0%

7

+16.0%

6

+12.0%

5

+8.0%

4

+4.0%

3

+0.0%

2

8 7 6 5 4 3 2

2014 2013

2015 2014

2015


34 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

View Ridge, Seattle $1,995,000 USD

+20.0%

$600,000 $527,000

$500,000

etween Interstate 5 and northern Lake $400,000 Washington, North Seattle includes Ravenna, Bryant and Hawthorne Hills; Laurelhurst $300,000 northwest of Union Bay; Windermere and View Ridge, respectively, south and west of Sand$200,000 Point; and Cedar Park along the western shore of Lake $100,000 Washington.

$475,000 $500,000

$475,000

+20.0%

2013

$527,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

$-

$-

+10.9%

$600,000

+10.9% +10.9%

B

North Seattle: North Months Seattle: In Months In Inventory Inventory

North SeattleNorth Median Seattle PriceMedian Year- Price YearOver-Year Over-Year

+10.9%

N O RT H SE AT T L E

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

+0.0%

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$-

+8.2%

$150,000

$100,000

$-

+8.2%

+12.1%

+12.1%

Besides its proximity to the Lakeside School in 2014 2015 2014 2015 0 0 neighboring Haller Lake west of I-5, North Seattle Median Price Median % Chg Price YOY % Chg YOY Jan Mar May Jan Jul Mar Sep May Nov Jul Sep Nov is home to Roosevelt High School on the west side of Ravenna and Nathan Hale High School beside in inventory in 2015, 32 in 2014, and 36 in 2013. Thornton Creek, both U.S.News & World Report  ranked.35 In addition, University Prep and the Southwest Median Snohomish Median Southwest Snohomish Southwest County: Snohomish TheSnohomish North Seattle median home price continued to rise in 2015 at the same strong County: Seattle Waldorf School are both SEVP schoolsSouthwest in Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory Months In Inventory 10.9 percent rate from the preceding year, gaining value more rapidly than King North Seattle.36 +20.0% +20.0% $400,000 $400,000 $370,000 20152014 County at large. At 3.6 $370,000 percent, the deviation in prices2013 from list2014 was2013 actually lower 2015 $330,000 $350,000 $350,000 4 here over the course of the year than in Ballard, despite 4a spike to 106.5 percent in North Seattle’s inventory trends over the past three $330,000 +16.0% +16.0% April. In any case, prices paid in this area showed North Seattle to be one of the $300,000 $300,000 years closely resemble those in Ballard/Green Lake, leading County for bidding wars in 2015.3 as the buyers attracted to these areas are$250,000 highly $250,000 areas in King 3 +12.0% +12.0% similar. The supply in North Seattle was only$200,000 slightly $200,000 less tight than its neighbor to the west, with 24 days +8.0% +8.0% +4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

+0.0%

2

2

1

1


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 35

Bainbridge Island Bainbridge MedianIsland Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year +20.0%

$700,000

$600,000 $500,000

$600,000

$542,500

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+10.9%

$400,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$2014 Median Price

S

$542,500

$500,000

$-

S OU T H E A ST SE AT T L E

+20.0%

2015 2014 Median % Chg YOY Price

2013

$615,000

+13.4% +10.9%

$615,000

+13.4%

$700,000

Bainbridge Island: Bainbridge Island: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory 6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

$500,000

$450,000

$450,000

+20.0% $438,750

20152014

S e w a r d0 P a r k , S e a t t l e Jan Mar Jan Mar Sep $ 3 , 6May 0 0 ,Jul 0 0 0MayU Nov SJulD

2015

0

% Chg YOY

Southeast Seattle Southeast Median Seattle Price Median Price Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year $500,000

20142013

Sep

Nov

Southeast Seattle: Southeast Seattle: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+20.0%

2013

$438,750

4

4

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

+15.5%

+8.0%

+11.1% +9.0%

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+11.1%

+8.0%

+9.0%

+15.5%

$380,000 +16.0% +16.0% $400,000 $400,000 outheast Seattle includes the neighborhoods of $380,000 $350,000 $350,000 Mt. Baker, Seward Park, Leschi, Columbia City, 3 3 +12.0% +12.0% $300,000 Lakewood, and Rainier Beach. This is an $300,000 historic $250,000 $250,000 area of Seattle, and some of its oldest streets (e.g., +8.0% +8.0% $200,000 $200,000 2 2 Holgate, Lander, Wilson, Angeline, and Graham) $150,000 $150,000 are named for early settlers and denizens of the city. +4.0% +4.0% $100,000 $100,000 The area has been a seller’s market continuously 1 1 $50,000 for the past three years, and has not seen$50,000 more $$+0.0% +0.0% than six weeks of homes in inventory for sale since 2014 2015 2014 2015 0 0 February 2015. The average monthly supply was Median Price Median % Chg YOY Price % Chg YOY Jan Mar May Jan Jul Mar Sep May Nov Jul Sep Nov 1.2 months in 2015, down from 1.9 months in 2014, and two months in 2013. three transactions involving bids adding triple digits to listed prices, including   one for $285,000 over the asking price. With occasional high and low divergence, the median home price in Southeast Seattle—$20,000 Central Seattle Central Median Seattle Price Median Price Central Seattle: Central Months Seattle: In Months In Year-Over-Year Inventory Inventory below the King County median last year—ends Year-Over-Year +20.0% +20.0% $600,000 $600,000 2015 higher than the county median price. At 2013 20142013 20152014 2015 $550,000 $550,000 a 15.5 percent year-over-year increase, this area $495,000 $495,000 4 4 $500,000 $500,000 +16.0% +16.0% places fifth among those profiled. Competition for homes here has been more than sufficiently$400,000 intense $400,000 3 3 +12.0% +12.0% to drive sale prices higher than list. The anomalous $300,000 $300,000 spike in November 2015 is partly explained by

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%


Ludlow: Months In Inventory Port Ludlow: Port Months In Inventory

Port Ludlow Median Port Ludlow Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $300,000

$283,750 $275,000

$275,000

$250,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000 $50,000 +1.9%

$50,000

$-

$-

2014 2015

2014 Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

MERCER I SL A N D

M

+8.2%

$-

$-

M e rce r I s l a n d , Wa s h i n g to n $ 4,4 9 8,0 0 0 US D

2014 2015

2014 Median Price

+20.0%

$625,000

Jan

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

Median % ChgPrice YOY

2013 3

3

2

2

1

1

$1,000,000

$1,200,000 $1,100,00 0

$991,750

$1,000,000

$1,100,00

+20.0%0

$991,750

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

20142013

20152014

2015

Jan May

Mar

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

+20.0%

2013 5

20142013

20152014

2015

5

+10.9%

+10.9%

+9.7%

Nov

Mercer Island: Mercer Island: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+16.0% +16.0% ercer Island, a bedroom community of Seattle $800,000 4 and the region, is generally regarded as part of $800,000 4 +12.0% +12.0% the Eastside despite its “206” area code. Its population $600,000 3 3 is estimated to have grown by 3.4 percent from$600,000 2010 +8.0% +8.0% through 2015.37 Mercer Island High School is ranked $400,000 $400,000 2 2 among the top ten public high schools in the state by +4.0% +4.0% $200,000 $200,000 U.S.News & World Report.38 1 1 $+0.0% $+0.0% As an island surrounded by Lake Washington, 2014 2015 2014 2015 0 0 the community faces some constraints on further Median Price Median % Chg YOY % ChgPrice YOY Jan Mar May Jul Sep Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov development solutions, and new development within the past five years has involved trading a few single-family homes for new multifamily Mercer Island has remained a strong seller’s market since March 2015 and for all housing.39 A current moratorium on new but four months in the past two years. There was an average of two months in subdivisions and a more stringent design review inventory in 2015, two-and-a-half in 2014, and three in 2013. process for buildings in the downtown core are suggestive of a city rethinking its future in light Mercer Island has long been a special community in the Puget Sound region. This of significant demand and growth. For now, SFRs is reflected in a median sale price in 2015 that was 152.9 percent higher than the still comprise 72.2 percent of the housing stock. This median price in King County at large. As in the small shore-bound communities composition is likely to change in the years ahead as a west of Bellevue, homes here are distinctive, leading to wide variation in prices new Link light rail line is planned across Mercer Island’s from month to month and transaction to transaction. North End, promoting multifamily alternatives close to the metro lines. +9.7%

Nov

0 Jan

Island Median Mercer IslandMercer Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $1,200,000

Jan May

Mar

0

% Chg YOY

2015

EastMonths Side South: East Side South: In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

+16.0%

+8.2%

$500,000

+15.5%

$600,000

$625,000 $577,600

+15.5%

$700,000 $577,600 $600,000

20152014

0

0

% Chg YOY

EastOfSide Of I-90 Median East Side South I-90South Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $700,000

20142013

2013

$283,750 +20.0%

+3.2%

$300,000

+3.2% +1.9%

36 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 37

Redmond/Carnation: Redmond/Carnation: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

Redmond/Carnation Redmond/Carnation Median Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000 $300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+8.9%

$300,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % Chg Price YOY

+20.0% $560,000

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+2.1%

$500,000

$560,000 $548,513

+8.9%

$600,000

$548,513

+2.1%

$600,000

+0.0% 2015

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

+0.0% 0

% Chg YOY

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

K i r k l a n d , Wa s h i n g to n $2,200,000 USD

$600,000

irkland is an affluent community well-situated $500,000 on the eastern shore of Lake Washington. Google has a development office here. The$400,000 local public International Community School was ranked $300,000 second in the state and 30th in the nation in 2015;40 $200,000 and other schools in Kirkland, including Eastside $100,000 Preparatory School, are SEVP-certified.41 Kirkland grew substantially in 2011 by annexing the adjacent$communities of Finn Hill, Juanita, and Kingsgate to absorb nearly seven square miles, 12,541 housing units, and about 32,000 new residents.42

$700,000 $587,700

$600,000

$652,500

+20.0% $652,500 +16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

Sep

Nov

Kirkland/Bridle Kirkland/Bridle Trails: Months Trails: In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

$587,700

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000

+11.0%

$700,000

+11.0% +10.9%

K

Kirkland/Bridle Kirkland/Bridle Trails MedianTrails Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+10.9%

KIRKLAND / BRIDLE TRAILS

2015

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$200,000 $100,000 $2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % Chg Price YOY

0

% Chg YOY

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

$50,000

$-

$-

+7.9%

$50,000

+3.8%

$150,000 $100,000 +3.8%

$150,000 $100,000

+7.9%

Like other Eastside areas to its east and south, increase has held steady at about 11 percent annually. Sales price deviation from Kirkland/Bridle Trails has seen an unbroken seller’s list price, although irregular, has not strayed farJuanita/Woodinville: from the seller’s asking price. Juanita/Woodinville Juanita/Woodinville Median Median Juanita/Woodinville: Months In Months In market for the past three years. The duration of Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year Inventory Inventory supply averaged 43 days in 2015, 57 days in 2014, $474,900 +20.0% +20.0% $500,000 $500,000 $474,900 2013 20142013 20152014 2015 and 56 days in 2013. $440,000 $440,000 $450,000 $450,000 3 3   +16.0% +16.0% $400,000 $400,000 Prices in this distinctive and evolving community $350,000 $350,000 have been volatile, but in 2015 the median was +12.0% +12.0% $300,000 $300,000 exactly 50 percent higher than the median sale$250,000 price 2 2 $250,000 for King County at-large. The year-over-year rate of +8.0% +8.0% $200,000 $200,000 +4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

+0.0%

1

1


Redmond/Carnation: Redmond/Carnation: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

Redmond/Carnation Redmond/Carnation Median Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000 $300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+8.9%

$300,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

+20.0% $560,000

Median % Chg YOY Price

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0% +2.1%

$500,000

$560,000 $548,513

+8.9%

$600,000

$548,513

+2.1%

$600,000

38 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

+0.0% 2015

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+10.9%

$500,000

$-

Wo o d i n v i l l e , Wa s h i n g t o n $1,150,000 USD

Median % Chg YOY Price

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

he area including Juanita (now $400,000 part of $350,000 Kirkland), Woodinville, and Redmond north $300,000 of 116th Street reaches from the eastern shore $250,000 of Lake Washington to the eastern edge of King $200,000 County.43 In addition to the aforementioned towns, $150,000 there are lakefront communities (Arrowhead and $100,000 Holmes Point), golf communities (Bear Creek and $50,000 Trilogy), and wine country estates (e.g., Hollywood $Hill). Woodinville and Inglemoor High Schools in the Northshore School District are both rated top public high schools by U.S.News & World Report. Juanita’s annexation to Kirkland in 2011 makes the latter the 13th largest city in Washington State today. Woodinville’s much smaller population of 11,240 grew by 2.8 percent from 2010 through 2015.72 Kirkland’s post-annexation housing stock is 56.3 percent SFRs, which comprise 60 percent of Woodinville’s housing mix.73   The monthly supply in this area has been consistently seller-favorable for the past three

$500,000 $440,000

$450,000

+0.0% 2015

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

2013 4

3

3

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

+0.0% 0

% Chg YOY

$474,900 $474,900 +20.0% $440,000

$400,000

Jul Mar

+4.0%

0 Jan

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Juanita/Woodinville: Juanita/Woodinville: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

+16.0%

Mar

2013 3

3

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

$350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $-

2014 Median Price

2015 2014 Median % Chg YOY Price

+4.0%

+7.9%

$450,000

+7.9%

$500,000

+3.8%

T

+12.0%

May Jan

4

Juanita/Woodinville Juanita/Woodinville Median Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+3.8%

J UA N I TA / WO O D I N V I L L E

2015 2014

Median Price

+16.0%

Mar

Kirkland/Bridle Kirkland/Bridle Trails: MonthsTrails: In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

+16.0%

+4.0%

$2014

+20.0% $652,500

2015

0 Jan

$587,700

+11.0%

$600,000

$652,500

+11.0% +10.9%

$600,000

$700,000 $587,700

20152014

+0.0%

Kirkland/Bridle Kirkland/Bridle Trails MedianTrails Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $700,000

20142013

+0.0% 2015 % Chg YOY

+4.0%

+0.0% 0

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

years. The duration of inventory averaged 45 days in 2015, 61 days in 2014, and 49 days in 2013. Over the past 24 months, the median sale price in Juanita/Woodinville has not advanced in pace with that of King County. Yet the local price did rise 7.9 percent from 2014 and remains 9.2 percent higher than the countywide median. The sales-to-list price trend indicates that deviation from prices offered in Juanita/Woodinville and those in the county at large varied only slightly and occasionally.

Sep

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 39

Re d m o n d , Wa s h i n g to n $1,395,950 USD

$560,000 $548,513

$500,000

+20.0% $560,000

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

$400,000

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

$300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $-

$-

2014

2014 2015

+2.1%

$500,000

he Redmond/Carnation area famously includes the Microsoft campus, but also $400,000 remarkable communities such as Blakely Woods, $300,000 Education Hill, Hunter’s Glen, and Redmond Ridge. The Bear Creek School and Overlake $200,000 School, both SEVP private schools certified to $100,000 admit foreign students, are just northeast of Redmond city limits.46

$600,000

$548,513

+8.9%

$600,000

+2.1%

T

Redmond/Carnation: Redmond/Carnation: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

Redmond/Carnation Median Redmond/Carnation Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+8.9%

R E DM O N D / C A R NAT IO N

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

0 0 From 2010 through 2015, the population of Median Price Median Price % Chg YOY % Chg YOY Jan Mar Sep May Nov Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Redmond is estimated to have grown by 9.3 percent.47 During these years, the proportion of advance as consistently as those in the rest of King County. In 2015, this area SFRs to the total housing stock edged downward did not see the level or frequency of competitive bidding for properties that from 49.4 percent to 48.1 percent.48 other areas in the county witnessed. Although the annual median sale price was   Kirkland/Bridle Trails: Trails Median 28.7 Kirkland/Bridle percent higherTrails thanMedian the countywide median, the year-over-year increase Kirkland/Bridle Trails: Months In Months In The area has been a strong seller’s market for Kirkland/Bridle the Price Year-Over-Year Inventory Price Year-Over-Year Inventory was the slowest observed, at 2.1 percent. past 24 months. Except for brief respites early +20.0% $700,000 $652,500 +20.0% $700,000 $652,500 2015 2013 20142013 20152014 each year, supply has trended steadily lower. The $587,700 average duration of inventory was 45 days $600,000 in 2015, $587,700 4 4 $600,000 +16.0% +16.0% 58 days in 2014, and 60 days in 2013.

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+8.0%

+4.0%

+11.0%

$400,000 +11.0% +10.9%

Prices in the Redmond/Carnation area $400,000 did not

$500,000

+10.9%

$500,000

+8.0%

3

3

2

2

+4.0% 1


40 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

B e l l ev u e, Wa s h i n g to n $4,500,000 USD

W E ST B E L L EV U E

  Bellevue West Of I-405 Median Bellevue West Of I-405 Median Price Year-Over-Year   Price Year-Over-Year $1,200,000

N

$1,200,000 $1,000,000

$1,080,00 0

$1,080,00 +20.0%0

+20.0%

    7 

Bellevue West Of I-405: Months Bellevue West Of I-405: Months In Inventory In Inventory 2013 7

2014

2013

2015

2014

2015

+16.0% $1,000,000 $920,000 WMLS Area 520 includes not only Bellevue, 6 +16.0% 6    but also the affluent enclaves of Clyde $800,000 $800,000 5 +12.0% 5  Hill and Medina, and the even more privileged +12.0%   $600,000 4 neighborhoods of Yarrow Point and Hunts Point. Of $600,000 4    +8.0% these communities, only Medina grew meaningfully +8.0% 3 $400,000   3 $400,000   (by 4.2 percent) from 2010 through 2015. St. Thomas +4.0%   2 $200,000 School, an SEVP private school, is located in Medina49 +4.0%   2 $200,000   and Bellevue High School, ranked third in the state 1   +0.0% 1 $$+0.0% and 160th in the nation by U.S.News & World Report,   2014 2015 0   2014 2015 0 is also located in this area.50 Fortune 500 company Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Median Price % Chg YOY   Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Median Price % Chg YOY   Expedia is currently headquartered downtown,   though they plan to relocate to downtown Seattle.51   variability in prices among properties that are   beyond compare. The 2015 median   Collectively, and respecting localized idiosyncrasies sale price here was 148.7 percent higher than the King County median. Even at these   witnessed the third highest year-over-year Bellevue East Of I-405 Median Bellevue East Of I-405: Months premium prices, West Bellevue increase in this distinctive market, this area’s monthly supply Bellevue East Of I-405 Median Bellevue East Of I-405: Months Price Year-Over-Year In Inventory we have seen: 17.6 percent, building on last  year’s 10.6 percent year-over-year gain. from 2013 through 2015 was on the bleeding edge Price   Year-Over-Year In Inventory $600,000 +20.0% due these properties can be a challenge so sellers may 2015   to their distinctiveness, 2013 2014 between balance and conditions favoring $600,000 sellers, Pricing +20.0% $541,450   2013 2014 2015 $541,450 some deviation from the offered price. Of specific note, West Bellevue has $493,444 loosening briefly in early 2015. Months in inventory expect 2 $493,444 $500,000 2    +16.0% been the primary target of overseas homebuyers, especially from China. Brokers at averaged 3.3 in 2015, 2.9 in 2014, and 2.7 in $500,000 2013. +16.0%     Realty perceive that upwards of half of the luxury Realogics   $400,000 Sotheby's International $400,000 +12.0%   are now This area comprises highly desirable neighborhoods home sales in this region +12.0%   to this distinct consumer profile and will continue $300,000 of very limited size, and therefore atypically high to influence housing prices. $300,000  

$100,000

$100,000

+10.6%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+9.7%

+8.4%

$200,000

$200,000

+9.7% +8.4%

+10.6%

+17.4%

+17.4%

$920,000

+8.0%

1

 

+4.0%

 

1


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 41

Bellevue WestBellevue Of I-405West Median Of I-405 Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$800,000

0

$1,000,000 $920,000 $800,000

$1,080,00 +20.0% 0

$920,000 +16.0%

+17.4%

$1,000,000

$1,200,000 $1,080,00

+17.4%

$1,200,000

+12.0%

$200,000

+10.6%

$400,000

$600,000 +10.6%

$600,000

$400,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % Chg YOY Price

 

+0.0% 2015

+16.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

$200,000

+20.0%

 

+12.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

$500,000

$541,450

+20.0%

$541,450

$493,444

+16.0%

+12.0%

$2014

2015 2014 Median % Chg YOY Price

+0.0% 2015

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

 

 

+20.0%

+16.0%

 

20142013

20152014

2015

Sep

Nov

Bellevue EastBellevue Of I-405:East Months Of I-405: Months In Inventory In Inventory

 

2013

2

2

20142013

20152014

2015

+12.0%

+8.0%

 

+4.0%

$100,000

Median Price

+8.0%

+9.7%

$200,000

+9.7% +8.4%

$300,000

7

$400,000

+8.4%

W

$500,000

ith an estimated 2015 population of 135,000, Bellevue is the fifth most populous $400,000 city in Washington State. The city was No. 19 on Forbes' list of Best Cities for Millennials $300,000 in 2015 (Seattle was No. 6).52 This area of Bellevue$200,000 east of I-405 is home to Interlake and Sammamish High Schools, respectively rated sixth and ninth$100,000 in the state by U.S.News & World Report.53 Demand here $has been sufficient to drive inventories lower than all other areas on the Eastside. The monthly supply has averaged a slightly over one month: 32 days in 2015, 39 in 2014, and 27 in 2013.

$600,000 $493,444

2013

7

Mar May B eJanl l e Mar v u e May , JanW aJul s h iSep n g tNov oJuln $ 9 9 7, 0 0 0 U S D

% Chg YOY

Bellevue EastBellevue Of I-405 East Median Of I-405 Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $600,000

B E L L EV U E E A ST OF I-405

Bellevue WestBellevue Of I-405:West Months Of I-405: Months In Inventory In Inventory

  1

1

+4.0%

+0.0%

   

0

% Chg YOY

Jan

0 Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

$520,000

$520,000

$510,000

$510,000

$533,600 +8.0%

+4.0%

+10.4%

$530,000

+6.7%

$540,000 $533,600

$530,000

+6.7%

$540,000

+10.4%

Since 2010, multifamily units in Bellevue have   increased by 9.0 percent, while SFRs latter still comprise 56.7 percent of the housing The City of Bellevue and much of the greater increased by 2.4 percent; but the     Ofboth Lakewest Sammamish: Eastand Of Lake Eaststock Of Lake Sammamish East Of Lakeall Sammamish (This includes areas of Bellevue, includingEast those eastSammamish: of I-405 Eastside are highly desirable to international   median Months In Inventory Months In percent Inventory Median Median Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year andPrice south of I-90).55 In 2015,  East Bellevue’s sale price was 24.5 homebuyers, especially Chinese. Such buyers +20.0% +20.0% $600,000 $600,000 above the median for King County as a whole; and the 9.7 percent year-over-year 2013 2014 2013 2015 2014 2015     are drawn by the access to excellent public and $588,995 $588,995 $590,000 $590,000 gain exceeded that of the county by a full percentage point as it had from 2013 to private schools, prospects for capital appreciation 2.5 2.5     +16.0% $580,000 $580,000 Meanwhile, all +16.0% but the mid-autumn to early winter months of the past two (as noted by recent rises in the market) and 2014.     $570,000 $570,000 have seen competitive bidding for properties in this2area. the area’s demographics: for example, the three years 2 +12.0% +12.0% $560,000 $560,000     neighborhoods in Woodridge east of I-405 range $550,000 1.5 1.5 from 15.5 percent to 32.8 percent Asian.54 $550,000          

+8.0%

+4.0%

1

1

0.5

0.5


THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE WASHINGTON

42 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

S OU T H W E ST L A K E WA SH I N G T O N

T

he Mount Baker and Seward Park communities, being farthest from downtown Seattle, were among the last to be developed on the western shore of Lake Washington. Owners of view properties here can see the length of the lake north-by-northeast to Mt. Baker, the “shining white, steep mountain” in the distance and the namesake of the Mount Baker community. As a whole, the Southwest Lake Washington micro-market and its component communities consistently have been seller’s markets over the past three years, and median prices continue to rise. The neighborhoods here are culturally diverse, with middle-class affluent shopping in nearby Columbia City, and with a rich heritage contributing some of the finer moments in Seattle’s history. Besides their lakeshore locations, these communities share similar origins to the Madison Park community

further north in that they were opened to development by the extension of trolley lines from downtown Seattle. Also like Washington Park, the Mount Baker community was designed by the Olmsted Brothers to maximize the views from the slopes overlooking the lake. In its early years, Mount Baker’s residents harbored a “City Beautiful” perspective on their elite enclave; but Mount Baker soon became one of Seattle’s most inclusive, most engaged communities, exemplifying the “Seattle Spirit” by hosting baseball teams and Seattle’s world-famous hydroplane races. The supply of homes for sale in Mount Baker has averaged one to two months over the past two years: 32 days in 2015, 44 in 2014, and 53 in 2013. Prices were higher in 2015, but by a less impressive margin due to more frequent sales of lower-priced homes.


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 43

SW King Co/Browns SW King Co/Browns Point Point Median Price Median Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+11.4% +11.8%

+11.8%

+20.0% $1,295,000 +16.0%

$600,000 $600,000

$604,375

+20.0%

+20.0%

$610,000

+4.0% +0.0% 2015

+20.0% $604,375 +16.0%

$590,000 $590,000 +12.0%

$570,000 $565,000

$560,000 $560,000 $550,000 $550,000 $540,000 $540,000 2014

$565,000 +7.0%

$570,000

20142015

+8.0% +7.0%

$580,000 $580,000

+4.0% +0.0% 2015

Median PriceMedian % Price Chg YOY % Chg YOY

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

 

 

0

Nov

Central West Central LakeWest Washington: Lake Washington: Months InMonths Inventory In Inventory 2013 11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8 7

5

5

+4.0%

4

4

3

3

2

+0.0%

2014 2015

2015

2

Jan

2014 2013

M o 1u n t B a k e r , S e a t t l e 0 $ 1 ,70 5,0 0 0 US D

1 0

Mar JanMay MarJul MaySep JulNov Sep

Nov

Southwest Southwest Lake Washington: Lake Washington: Months InMonths Inventory In Inventory

+20.0%

5

+12.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

2015

0 Mar JanMay Mar Jul MaySep Jul Nov Sep

Jan

6

+16.0%

2014 2015

6

2014 2013

+8.0%

$610,000

5

7

Southwest Southwest Lake Washington Lake Washington Median Price Median Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

THE SOUTHWEST LAKE WASHINGTON MICRO-MARKET AND ITS COMPONENT COMMUNITIES CONSISTENTLY HAVE BEEN SELLER’S MARKETS OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS, AND MEDIAN PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.

+12.0%

+8.0%

Median PriceMedian % Price Chg YOY % Chg YOY

2013

+16.0%

+12.0%

20142015

+20.0%

+7.9%

+15.4%

$1,295,000 $1,200,000

+7.9%

$1,400,000 $1,400,000

+15.4%

+11.4%

$300,000 $300,000 +20.0% +20.0% Seward Park is named for William $273,975 $273,975 H. Seward, U.S. President Lincoln’s $245,000 $245,000   $250,000 $250,000 +16.0% +16.0% Secretary of State whose negotiated   purchase of the Alaska Territory $200,000 $200,000 contributed so much to Seattle’s   +12.0% +12.0% early development. An early $150,000 $150,000   bequest establishing the Kline +8.0% +8.0% Galland Home for the elderly   $100,000 $100,000 attracted Jewish families to this   +4.0% +4.0% $50,000 $50,000 place, which by the mid-1990s had   become a center of Seattle’s Jewish $+0.0% +0.0% community. Like the surrounding $  2014 2014 2015 2015 area, the community is culturally Median PriceMedian % Price Chg YOY % Chg YOY   diverse and contains many impressive homes. Tiny Seward   Park Beach is one of the more family-friendly waterfront venues Central West Central LakeWest Washington Lake Washington on Lake Washington. Median Price Median Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

More than Mount Baker, the $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 median price of homes in Seward Park set the trend for the broader $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Southwest Lake Washington $800,000 $800,000 micro-market, with prices here rising at a similar rate in 2015. $600,000 $600,000 However, the duration of inventory $400,000 $400,000 was somewhat longer, although still in seller’s market territory. $200,000 $200,000 There were 54 days in inventory in $2015, down from 67 in 2014, and $2014 86 in 2013.

SW King Co/Browns SW King Co/Browns Point: Point: Months InMonths Inventory In Inventory

2013

4

3

3

2

2

+0.0%

0

2014 2015

2015

5

4

2014 2013

1

1

Jan

0 Mar JanMay MarJul MaySep JulNov Sep

Nov


SW King Co/Browns SW King Point: Co/Browns Point: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

SW King Co/Browns SW King Point Co/Browns Point Median PriceMedian Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$200,000 $150,000

$245,000

$250,000

$273,975

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$2014

$-

Median Price

$273,975

2015 2014 % ChgPrice YOY Median

2013

+20.0%

$245,000

$200,000 $150,000

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+11.8%

$250,000

$300,000

+11.8% +11.4%

$300,000

+11.4%

44 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0 Jan

% Chg YOY

Gig Harbor/Fox Median Gig Island Harbor/Fox Island Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $374,000 $400,000

$350,000

$350,000

$300,000

$300,000

$250,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$-

H u n t s Po i n t , Wa s h i n g t o n $ 7, 8 8 0 , 0 0 0 U S D

E A ST E R N L A K E WA SH I N G T O N WAT E R F R O N T

E

+20.0%

$374,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

% ChgPrice YOY Median

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

% Chg YOY

$2,061,00 0

$2,000,000

astern Lake Washington Waterfront is a $1,500,000 subjectively-defined class of properties on the eastern shore of Lake Washington and inclusive of $1,000,000 Mercer Island. It is not designated by the NWMLS. The boundaries are, in the south, Gene Coulon $500,000 Memorial Park; in the north, Denny Park west of Juanita/Kirkland; and Mercer Island shorefront. Only $waterfront properties within this area were selected. This class of properties offers insight into the dynamics of this property segment for buyers as well as sellers. Notably, the volatility of inventory and variance in pricing are remarkably higher for these properties, and are connected with the differences in size, features, view and access, many of which cannot be captured by reduction to price per square foot. The median price of these properties obscures this volatility; yet the value of waterfront properties is almost invariably higher by square foot than properties without waterfront access. This can be seen in the proportion of waterfront properties in

+20.0%

$2,500,000 $2,061,00 $2,015,00 0 0

$2,015,00 0

2013 10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 Jan

+16.0%

+16.0%

$1,500,000

+12.0%

+12.0%

$1,000,000

+8.0%

+8.0%

$500,000

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2014

$-

Median Price

2015 2014 % ChgPrice YOY Median

% Chg YOY

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

2015

Sep

Nov

Mar

20142013

May Jan

Jul Mar

20152014

Sep May

Nov Jul

2015

Sep

Nov

Lake Washington Lake Waterfront: Washington Waterfront: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+20.0%

$2,000,000

May Jan

10

Lake Washington Lake Waterfront Washington Waterfront Median PriceMedian Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $2,500,000

0

20152014

Gig Harbor/Fox Months Gig Island: Harbor/Fox Island: Months In Inventory In Inventory

+20.0%

$410,000

+9.6%

$400,000

$410,000

+9.6% +11.6%

$450,000

+11.6%

$450,000

Mar

20142013

2013 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan

Mar

16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

20142013

May Jan

Jul Mar

20152014

Sep May

Nov Jul

2015

Sep

Nov

every neighborhood that sell at multiples of two to three times the median price in the surrounding area. For waterfront properties in this particular area, prices were up by nearly 39 percent from 2013 to 2014; yet in this past year as markets surged all around Puget Sound, waterfront properties in this area actually fell by 2.2 percent. The reason is the inherent variation and distinctions within this class of real estate. Knowing the cachet of Seattle waterfront in this area, sellers unsurprisingly expect a premium for these properties when they list. As can be seen, however, this often leads to lengthy market times and price concessions to committed buyers.


Bellevue WestBellevue Of I-405West Median Of I-405 Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year 0

$1,000,000 $920,000

$800,000

$800,000

$600,000

$600,000

$1,080,00 +20.0% 0

$920,000 +16.0%

+17.4%

$1,000,000

$1,200,000 $1,080,00

+17.4%

$1,200,000

$400,000

$400,000

$200,000

$200,000

$-

+10.6%

+10.6%

+12.0%

2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % Chg YOY Price

 

+0.0% 2015

// C OMMUNIT S 2014 // 45 2013 Y REPORT 20142013 2015

+20.0%

+16.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

$-

 

+12.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

$500,000

$600,000 $493,444

$500,000

$400,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

$541,450

+20.0%

$541,450

$493,444

+16.0%

2014

2015 2014 Median % Chg YOY Price

+0.0% 2015

$590,000

WMLS Area 540 extends from the $580,000 eastern shore of Lake Sammamish to the $570,000 eastern $560,000 border of King County in the Cascade Range. It $550,000 includes Issaquah north of I-90 (where Costco is $540,000 headquartered), as well as the city of Sammamish, $530,000 the towns of Snoqualmie and North Bend, and $520,000 the census-designated place of Fall City. Skyline $510,000 High School in Sammamish and Mount Si High $500,000 School in Snoqualmie are among the state’s topranked public high schools according to U.S.News & World Report.⁵⁶ Housing in this area is predominantly single-family, with SFRs comprising 68.9 percent of homes in North Bend, 85. 5 percent in Snoqualmie, and 93.0 percent in Sammamish in 2015.⁵⁷ The area has been a consistent seller’s market over the past three years, with inventory loosening in January and tightening each spring.   The duration of supply averaged 39 days in 2015, 55 in 2014, and 54 in 2013. Despite wide-ranging types

$580,000

 

 

+20.0%

+16.0%

$520,000

+10.4%

+10.4%

$530,000

$533,600 +8.0% +6.7%

$550,000 $540,000 $533,600

+4.0%

$510,000 $500,000 2014 Median Price

2015 2014 Median % Chg YOY Price

+0.0% 2015

3

2

2

1

1

 

+12.0%

+8.0%

         

% Chg YOY

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Bellevue EastBellevue Of I-405:East Months Of I-405: Months In Inventory In Inventory

2013

2

2

20142013

20152014

2015

  1

1

+4.0%

+0.0%

   

S a m0 aJan m mMar i s h0 May , Jan W aJul s h iSep nMay g t Nov oJuln Mar $ 1 ,4 0 0,0 0 0 US D

Sep

Nov

 

+20.0%

0 Jan

$588,995

+12.0%

3

+16.0%

$560,000

4

+20.0%

+16.0%

4

% Chg YOY

$570,000

+6.7%

N

$588,995

5

East Of Lake Sammamish East Of Lake Sammamish E A ST O F   Median Price Median Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year L A K E S A M M A M I SH   $600,000

$590,000

5

$600,000

6

+4.0%

$Median Price

+9.7%

+9.7% +8.4%

+8.4%

$-

+8.0%

6

+12.0%

7

0

% Chg YOY

2015

7

Bellevue EastBellevue Of I-405 East Median Of I-405 Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $600,000

Bellevue WestBellevue Of I-405:West Months Of I-405: Months In Inventory In Inventory

+8.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

2013

2.5

+12.0%

East Of Lake Sammamish: East Of Lake Sammamish: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

20142013

20152014

2015

2.5

2

2

1.5

1.5

1

1

0.5

0.5

 

0 Jan

Mar

0 May Jan

Jul Mar Sep May Nov Jul

Sep

of communities comprising this area, the median sale price east of Lake Sammamish was 35.4 percent higher in 2015 than that of King County generally. At 10.4 percent, sellers in 2015 enjoyed stronger year-over-year gains than those in 2014. The profile of deviation from listed prices is markedly similar to that found south of I-90, as prices in both areas are equally consistent with the countywide trend. This is especially true in the area north of the freeway, as prices have not appeared to vary frequently by more than one percent from list.

Nov


46 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Port Ludlow: Months In Inventory Port Ludlow: Months In Inventory

Port Ludlow Median Port Ludlow Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $300,000

$283,750 $275,000

$275,000

$250,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

+1.9%

+3.2% +1.9%

$50,000

$50,000

$-

$-

2014 2015

2014

B e l l ev u e, Wa s h i n g to n $ 1 ,770,0 0 0 US D

$700,000

$700,000

$600,000

$577,600 $600,000

$500,000

+15.5%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $-

2014 2015

2014

Median Price % Chg YOY

Median Price

+20.0%

$625,000

Jan

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

Jan May

Mar

2013 3

3

2

2

1

1

Mar Jul

May Nov Jul Sep

Sep

Nov

20142013

20152014

2015

0

0

% Chg YOY

2015

EastMonths Side South: East Side South: In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

+16.0%

20152014

0

0

% Chg YOY

+8.2%

WMLS Area 500 combines southern Bellevue $500,000 and the neighborhoods of Issaquah south of I-90 with the towns of Eastgate and Newcastle. $400,000 Costco, the third-largest retailer in the U.S., is $300,000 headquartered adjacent to this area on the north $200,000 side of I-90 in Issaquah. This area includes both the International School and Newport High$100,000 School in Bellevue, along with Issaquah High School—all $of which are ranked among the top 20 public high schools in the state by U.S.News & World Report.⁵⁸

$625,000 $577,600

+8.2%

N

+20.0%

East Of I-90 Median East Side South OfSide I-90South Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+15.5%

E A ST SI D E S OU T H O F I - 9 0

Median Price % Chg YOY

Median Price

20142013

2013

$283,750 +20.0%

+3.2%

$300,000

Jan

Jan May

Mar

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Nov

$400,000

$200,000

$200,000 $-

$2014

2014 2015

+8.0%

+10.9%

Although 43.7 percent higher than the King County $400,000

+9.7%

$600,000 +9.7%

$600,000

+10.9%

The population of Issaquah grew by 9.5 percent from 2010 through 2015. Newcastle, about a third median sale price, the median on the southern Eastside in 2015 slightly lost ground Island Median Island: IslandMercer Median Island: in percentage terms, with a year-over-year gain that fellMercer short of thatMercer seen in 2014. of Issaquah’s size, grew more slowly at 5.4 percent. Mercer Price Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory Price Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory as SFRs comprise a greater share of Newcastle’s housing The deviation of sales from listed prices this past year showed a similar pattern $1,100,00 +20.0% $1,200,000 $1,100,00 +20.0%0 appearing $1,200,000 seen throughout to lead the county trend from 2015 the2014 spring 2015 2013 20142013 stock: 72.4 percent to Issaquah’s 50.9 percent.⁵⁹ 0 the county, $991,750 $991,750 the early through summer.   5 5 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 +16.0% +16.0% The area is a strong seller’s market, with supply $800,000 4 averaging 40 days in 2015, 52 days in 2014, and 47 $800,000 4 +12.0% +12.0% days in 2013. +8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

3

3

2

2

1

1


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 47

A r l i n g to n , Wa s h i n g to n $423,000 USD

$300,000

ortheast Snohomish County is a primarily $250,000 rural area wherein some communities are in $200,000 transition to upscale exurban commuter retreats. These include Snohomish and Lake Stevens, $150,000 respectively southeast and east of Everett; Granite $100,000 Falls on the Stillaguamish River; and Lochsloy between Lake Stevens and Granite Falls. All $50,000 these towns are minutes away from the grandeur of the $North Cascades. From 2010 through 2015, the population of Lake Stevens grew by 6.5 percent, Arlington by 3.1 percent and Snohomish by 3.2 percent.⁶⁰

+20.0%

$350,000 $300,000

$272,403

$299,950 $272,403

+20.0%

$299,950

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

+10.1%

$350,000

+10.1% +10.3%

N

Northeast Snohomish NortheastCounty: Snohomish County: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

Northeast Snohomish NortheastMedian Snohomish Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+10.3%

NORTHEAST SNOHOMISH

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

20142013

20152014

2015

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

averaged 2.4 in 2015, 3.0 in 2014, and 2.9 in 2013. In this more remote region of Snohomish County, prices are below median, but have risen by more than 10 Camano Island: Camano Months Island: In Months In Camano Island Camano Median Island Price Price percent annually for Median the past two years, exceeding the countywide rate. During Of Lake Stevens' 10,908 housing units, 79.7 percent Inventory Inventory Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year are SFRs. The proportion of SFRs in smaller these years, the deviation of sales from list prices closely tracked the county figure +20.0% +20.0% $350,000 $350,000 2013 20142013 20152014 2015 until late 2015. Snohomish, less than a third the size of Lake Stevens $302,250 $302,250 12 12 $300,000 $300,000 by population, is 59.8 percent.⁶1 $269,000 $269,000 +16.0%

$100,000

$100,000 +0.8%

$-

$150,000

$50,000 $-

+12.0%

+12.4%

$200,000

+12.4%

After hesitating steps in 2013 and 2014, Northeast $200,000 Snohomish County converted more convincingly to a seller’s market in 2015. Months in inventory $150,000

$50,000

+16.0%

$250,000

+0.8%

$250,000

+12.0%

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7 6

+8.0%

+8.0%

6 5

5

+4.0%

+4.0%

4

4

3

3

+0.0%

+0.0%

2

2


48 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

North Seattle: North Months Seattle: In Months In Inventory Inventory

North SeattleNorth Median Seattle PriceMedian Year- Price YearOver-Year Over-Year +20.0%

$600,000 $527,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

$-

$2014

Ed m o n d s, Wa s h i n g to n $624,000 USD

Median Price

Median % Chg YOY Price

2013

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

$400,000

$400,000

$350,000

$330,000 $350,000

$300,000

$150,000 $100,000

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$50,000 $2014

2015 2014

20152014

2015

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Southwest Snohomish SouthwestCounty: Snohomish County: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

+20.0%

+16.0%

+12.1%

$250,000 $200,000

+20.0% $370,000

$330,000

+12.1%

outhwest Snohomish County is midway between $300,000 the exurban communities of Kitsap, Skagit and $250,000 Island counties—scenic and in some cases more $200,000 affordable, with minimal commuting distance for $150,000 people who want to escape the city on weekends. $100,000 From Edmonds, the ferry to Kingston offers the most direct route to Port Gamble on the Kitsap Peninsula, $50,000 and further on, to Port Ludlow in Jefferson County. $-

$370,000

20142013

0 Jan

Southwest Snohomish SouthwestMedian Snohomish Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+8.2%

S

2015 2014

+8.2%

SOUTHWEST SNOHOMISH

$475,000

+10.9% +10.9%

$400,000

+10.9%

$500,000

$475,000 $500,000

+20.0%

$527,000

+10.9%

$600,000

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

20142013

20152014

2015

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$-

$-

+9.2%

$100,000

+9.2% +9.1%

+9.1%

0 0 Schools in this area include Brighton, a K-8 private Median Price Median % Chg YOY Price % Chg YOY Jan Mar May Jan Jul Mar Sep May Nov Jul Sep Nov school in Mountlake Terrace, which is SEVP certified.62 Snohomish County’s population grew by 2.24 percent year-over-year, a faster rate than percent. All 469 homes in the village of Woodway are SFRs.64 King County in 2015. In Southwest Snohomish Everett/Mukilteo: Months In Everett/Mukilteo Everett/Mukilteo Median PriceMedian Price Southwest Snohomish County has been a seller’s market forEverett/Mukilteo: theMonths past 36Inmonths, communities, populations grew more slowly: Inventory Inventory Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year Edmonds grew by 1.4 percent, and Lynnwood with two months or fewer sales in inventory for much of the past two years: 43 days +20.0% $350,000 $350,000 $327,500 2013 the 2014 2013 price 20152014 days in 2014, and 50+20.0% days in 2013. Although median in this 2015 added 1.1 percent—although conveniently located in 2015, 63$327,500 $300,000 $300,000 4 4 $300,000 $300,000 area was lower than in King County next door, it was more than 10 percent higher Mountlake Terrace outpaced these two, expanding +16.0% +16.0% than the Snohomish County median price. At 12.1 percent, price appreciation in by 2.7 percent.63 $250,000 $250,000 Southwest Snohomish County outpaced the3 state-leading 3 county rate of growth. The +12.0% +12.0% $200,000 $200,000 deviation in sale-to-list prices generally adhered to the two-year pattern within The SFR proportion of Edmonds' housing stock local one percent of+8.0% the listed price, except for a 104.5 percent spike in May 2014. is 63.3 percent. In Brier, this proportion$150,000 is 97.4 about $150,000 +8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

+0.0%

2

2

1

1


North SeattleNorth Median Seattle Price Median Year- Price YearOver-Year Over-Year +20.0%

$600,000 $527,000

$400,000

$300,000

$300,000

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

$-

+10.9%

$400,000

$475,000

+10.9%

$475,000 $500,000

+10.9%

$500,000

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % Chg YOY Price

+20.0%

2013

$527,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+10.9%

$600,000

North Seattle:North Months Seattle: In Months In Inventory Inventory // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 49

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

$300,000

$250,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % Chg YOY Price

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+8.0%

verett is a regional employment center, most $250,000 notably for Boeing and the U.S. Navy’s Pacific $200,000 Home Port. Weekend recreation is close at hand in Skagit and Island Counties and the $150,000 North Cascades. It isn’t necessary to leave the area to $100,000 find comfort: there are affluent communities at $50,000 Mill Creek and the Mill Creek Country Club east of I-5; at any of several neighborhoods branching $off of Harbour Point Boulevard from Picnic Point north; through Mukilteo to Front Street where the Clinton ferry docks; and along the shore to Everett. Kamiak High School in Mukilteo is rated 20th in the state by U.S.News & World Report.65 The seventh largest city in Washington State, Everett's population has grown by 2.7 percent; Mukilteo, one-fifth the size of Everett, has added 3.2 percent to its population.66 The proportion of SFRs to Everett's housing stock is the lowest of the areas profiled outside of Seattle: 47.9 percent (This proportion in the city of Seattle is 43.1 percent). In Mukilteo, it is 64.5 percent.67 Everett/Mukilteo

$300,000

$327,500

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

2014 2013 2015 2014

2015

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0% 0

% Chg YOY

+20.0% $327,500

0

EJanv e rMar e t tMay ,JanW aJulMar s h Sep i May n g tNov oJuln $700,000 USD

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

Sep

Nov

Everett/Mukilteo: Everett/Mukilteo: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

$300,000

2013 4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

2014 2013 2015 2014

2015

$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $2014 Median Price

2015 2014 Median % Chg YOY Price

+9.2%

$300,000

$350,000 $300,000

+9.1%

$350,000

+9.2%

E

+20.0%

+16.0%

Mar

Southwest Snohomish SouthwestCounty: Snohomish County: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

Everett/Mukilteo Everett/Mukilteo Median Price Median Price Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year

+9.1%

EV E R E T T / M U K I LT E O

+20.0% $370,000

$330,000

+12.1%

$300,000

$370,000

+12.1%

$330,000 $350,000

+8.2%

$400,000

$350,000

+8.2%

$400,000

2015

0 Jan

Southwest Snohomish SouthwestMedian Snohomish Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

2014 2013 2015 2014

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

% Chg YOY

0

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Jul Mar

Sep May

Nov Jul

briefly exited seller’s market territory in early 2014, but there were less than two months in inventory from March through the end of 2015. Months of supply averaged 54 in 2015, 76 in 2014, and 60 in 2013. Prices rose steadily and respectably over the past two years; but as this area is considerably farther from the frenetic employment centers to the south, prices here are lower than the Snohomish County median which is set by markets closer in. Deviation of sales from listed prices followed the county trend more closely in 2015 than in 2014, with sellers allowing price reductions in all but late spring and early summer.

Sep

Nov


Northeast Snohomish Northeast County: Snohomish County: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

Northeast Snohomish Northeast Median Snohomish Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$300,000 $272,403

$250,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$299,950 $272,403

$50,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

+20.0%

$299,950

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+10.1%

$300,000

$50,000

+20.0%

$350,000

+10.1% +10.3%

$350,000

+10.3%

50 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000 $150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000 $-

+0.8%

$150,000

$50,000 $-

2014

A n a co r tes, Wa s h i n g to n $1,381,000 USD

Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

+16.0%

+12.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

$200,000

Anacortes competes with Camano Island$150,000 as a regional retirement haven, though with a lesser $100,000 proportion of retirees to population: 42 percent drew social security in 2014, and 27.7 percent$50,000 took $retirement income. Anecdotally, some officers at Naval Air Station Whidbey to the south at Oak Harbor choose to live in Anacortes, but the actual numbers are not very large: less than 300 service members lived here in 2014, or 2.1 percent of the population. Nearly eight percent of workers telecommute or work at home.68 Anacortes High School has been named among the top public schools in the state, as are two other schools in the San Juan Islands nearby: Friday Harbor High School and Orcas Island High School, ranking 17 and 15, respectively.69 Spring Street International School in Friday Harbor is an SEVP school.

$347,000

$350,000

$357,950 $347,000

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $2014 Median Price

2015 2014 Median % ChgPrice YOY

May Jan

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7 6

+8.0%

6 5

5

+4.0%

+4.0%

4

4

3

3

2

2

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

1

1

0

0 Jan

% Chg YOY

+20.0%

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

$357,950

Mar

May Sep

2014 2013

May Jan

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

2015 2014

2015

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

Anacortes: Months Anacortes: In Inventory Months In Inventory 2013 12

2014 2013

2015 2014

2015

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7 6

+8.0%

+8.0%

6 5

5

+4.0%

+4.0%

4

4

3

3

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2

2

% Chg YOY

Mar Jul

12

+8.0%

+3.2%

he “Gateway to the San Juans,” Anacortes $350,000 comprises not only this historic town on the $300,000 northern end of Fidalgo Island, but the rest of the $250,000 island west of the Swinomish Indian Reservation.

$400,000

+13.6%

$400,000

Mar

2013 12

Anacortes Median Anacortes PriceMedian Year- Price YearOver-Year Over-Year

+3.2%

T

2015 2014

+13.6%

ANACORTES

$269,000

2015

Camano Island: Camano Months Island: In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

$302,250

+12.4%

$250,000

+12.4%

$300,000

$269,000

$302,250

+0.8%

$300,000

+20.0%

$350,000

2015 2014

0 Jan

Camano Island Camano Median Island PriceMedian Price Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year $350,000

2014 2013

1

1

0

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

The population of Anacortes grew by 3.4 percent from 2010 through 2015.70 The proportion of SFRs among the housing stock is 80.2 percent.71 The area has been a balanced market for most of the past 36 months, dallying at the edge of a seller’s market from April 2015 through most of the summer. Although prices here are considerably lower than in King, Snohomish or Kitsap Counties, the 2015 median price in Anacortes was more than 40 percent higher than the median price across Skagit County. Price appreciation here actually fell behind that of the county year-over-year, however, as prices countywide advanced at a percentage rate three times that of Anacortes.

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 51

NortheastCounty: Snohomish County: Northeast Snohomish Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

NortheastMedian Snohomish Median Northeast Snohomish Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $300,000

$272,403

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

+10.3%

$250,000

$50,000 $-

$-

2014 2015

2014 Median Price

$350,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$300,000

$269,000

$269,000

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

$-

2014 Median Price

2014 2015 Median Price % Chg YOY

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

% Chg YOY

20142013

2013

Nov

20152014

2015

12

12 +16.0%

Sep

Camano Island: Camano Island: Months In Months In Inventory Inventory

+20.0%

$100,000 $50,000

2015

0

$302,250

+12.4%

$150,000

20152014

C a m a n0oJanI s l Mar a n dMay ,JanW aJul s h Sep iMay n g tNov o Mar Juln $485,000 USD

$250,000 $200,000

20142013

2013

% Chg YOY

+20.0% $302,250

+12.4%

$350,000

amano Island is the second of the two main $300,000 islands in Island County. The local chamber of commerce has positioned the island$250,000 as a retirement haven or vacation retreat. In 2014, 45.8 $200,000 percent of residents were drawing social security $150,000 funds and 29 percent were pensioners. The Census Bureau also reports, however, that of the $100,000 15,201 residents of Camano Island, more than 4,500 were $50,000 commuting to work in the Seattle MSA, which includes Snohomish County as well as King and $Pierce counties; and more than 2,000 are either commuting north to Mount Vernon, south to Everett, or further south to Seattle.72

+0.8%

C

Median Price % Chg YOY

$299,950

Camano Camano Island MedianIsland PriceMedian Price Year-Over-Year Year-Over-Year

+0.8%

C A M A N O I SL A N D

+20.0%

+20.0% $299,950 $272,403

+10.1%

$300,000

$350,000

+10.1% +10.3%

$350,000

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 Jan

Jan May

Mar

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Nov

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

+4.0%

+3.2%

$100,000

+3.2%

+13.6%

+13.6%

Camano Island is close-in enough to have participated in the market dynamics Camano Island residents find their peaceful driving sales nearer to King County. The island flirted at the edge of seller’s getaways at Utsalady Bay in the north, Madrona Anacortes PriceofYearAnacortes: Months In Inventory market territory for much 2015. Months inAnacortes: inventoryMonths averaged 4.5 months Anacortes Median PriceMedian YearIn Inventory Beach on the western shore, Driftwood Shores Over-Year Over-Year in 2015, 6.2 months in 2014, and 7.4 months in 2013.2013 2015 20142013 20152014 along Triangle Cove on the island's eastern$400,000 coast, +20.0% $400,000 +20.0% $357,950 12 $357,950 12 $347,000 and southeasterly by South Camano Drive along $347,000 $350,000 Reflecting the more volatile market dynamics of exurban $350,000 11 areas, Camano Island 11 the banks of the Saratoga Passage. +16.0% +16.0% followed a less-than-one-percent increase in median sale prices in 2014 with a 10 $300,000 10 $300,000 9 selling intervals in this double-digit increase from 2014 to 2015. Less-frequent 9 $250,000 There are 8,590 housing units on Camano $250,000 Island, +12.0% 8 from list, reminding area show their influence in the+12.0% deviation8of prices paid $200,000 6,285 of which are occupied (an occupation rate 7 $200,000 7 sellers to consult a licensed agent when pricing a property for sale. 6 +8.0% of 73.2 percent).73 Despite the faraway ambience, 6 +8.0% $150,000 $150,000 +4.0%

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2


52 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Des M o i n es, Wa s h i n g to n $895,000 USD

S OU T H W E ST K I N G SW King Co/Browns SW KingPoint Co/Browns Point Price Year-Over-Year Median PriceMedian Year-Over-Year C OU N T Y / B R OW N S POINT

he region south from SeaTac International $200,000 Airport, around the shore of Poverty Bay $150,000 at Redondo, and west to Commencement Bay comprises this area.74 It encompasses the $100,000 communities of Dash Point and Browns Point at the mouth of Commencement Bay. It also includes $50,000 the city of Des Moines, which is home to Aviation $High School, the fifth-highest rated school in the state according to U.S.News & World Report.75

+20.0% $273,975

+20.0%

$245,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $2014 Median Price

2014 2015 Median % Chg Price YOY

+11.8%

T

$245,000 $250,000

$273,975

+11.8% +11.4%

$250,000

$300,000

+11.4%

$300,000

SW KingPoint: Co/Browns Point: SW King Co/Browns Months In Inventory Months In Inventory 2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

20152014

2015

0

0

% Chg YOY

20142013

Jan

Mar

Jan May

Mar Jul

May Sep

Jul Nov

Sep

Nov

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

+9.6%

$150,000

+9.6% +11.6%

$200,000

+11.6%

With a population of just over 30,000 in 2015, Des Browns Point has higher concentrations in retail trade, with only 22.7 percent Moines is estimated to have grown by less than having retired.78 1.5 percent over the preceding five years.76 About 60 percent of the town's housing stock comprises GigIsland Harbor/Fox Gig Harbor/Fox MedianIsland Median GigIsland: Harbor/Fox Island: Months Gig Harbor/Fox Months Although the preceding two years saw this area’s monthly supply in a seller’s Price Year-Over-Year SFRs.77 Price Year-Over-Year In Inventory In Inventory market spring and most of the summer, only in 2015 did the +20.0% $450,000 throughout the +20.0% $450,000 $410,000 2015 $410,000 2013 20142013 20152014 market remain favorable to sellers for the entire year. Months in inventory Although adjacent to each other at the$400,000 elbow $374,000 $400,000 $374,000 10 10 in 2015. Growth in the median averaged 1.9 in 2015, 2.7 in 2014, and 2.8 +16.0% of Commencement Bay and Puget Sound, the +16.0% $350,000 $350,000 9 9 sale price was steady at 11.8 percent, slightly exceeding the rate in the communities of Dash Point and Browns Point $300,000 $300,000 8 8 preceding year. +12.0% differ markedly. Many of Dash Point’s population +12.0% $250,000 7 $250,000 7 are retirees, with 30 percent drawing retirement. 6 $200,000 +8.0%

+4.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

6 5

5

4

4

3

3


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 53

N o r m a n d y Pa r k , Wa s h i n g to n $850,000 USD Burien/Normandy Burien/Normandy Park MedianPark Median BU R I E N Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year N O R M A N DY PA R K

$200,000

+20.0%

+17.2%

$250,000

$287,000 +20.0%

$244,950 +17.2%

$244,950

$287,000

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

$150,000 $100,000

+9.8%

T

$250,000

he Burien/Normandy Park area of Southwest $200,000 King County includes both Burien and upscale Normandy Park, as well as the neighborhoods $150,000 of Seahurst, Shorewood, and Three Tree Point. Downtown Burien has been gentrifying for$100,000 some years. John F. Kennedy Memorial High School $50,000 in Burien is an SEVP school certified to admit foreign students.41 SeaTac International Airport $offers connections to Asia and worldwide, and the corporate headquarters of Alaska Air Group are located beside Angle Lake in the southeast corner of this area.

$300,000

+9.8%

$300,000

$50,000 $2014

2015 2014

Median Price

Median % ChgPrice YOY

Burien/Normandy Burien/Normandy Park: Park: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory 2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

20142013

20152014

2015

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

year-over-year increase among the communities reported here—building on a 9.8West percent increase preceding year. Nevertheless, while tracing the Median Seattle Price Median Year- from Pricethe YearIn 2015, the population of Burien was estimatedWest at Seattle West Seattle:West Seattle: Over-Year county patternOver-Year of monthly deviations from list price offersInover the past year, Months Inventory Months In Inventory 48,810 and that of Normandy Park at 6,420. Nearly +24.0% $500,000 $500,000 sold prices in this area tend to +24.0% remain just a bit lower than throughout King 62 percent of homes in the area are SFRs. Burien/ 2013 20142013 20152014 2015 $435,000 $435,000 $450,000 $450,000 County. Normandy Park is a seller’s market: in 2015, the 5 5 +20.0% $385,000 $385,000 +20.0% $400,000 average monthly supply was 1.8, down from$400,000 2.6 in $350,000 $350,000 +16.0% +16.0% 2014 and 2.7 in 2013. 4 4 $300,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

+6.9%

$200,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

+13.0%

$250,000

The annual median price was $287,000, 17.2 $200,000 percent higher than in 2014—the fourth largest

+13.0%

$250,000

+6.9%

$300,000

3

3

2

2

1

1


54 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

SW King Co/Browns Point: SW King Co/Browns Point: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

SW King Co/Browns Point SW King Co/Browns Point Median Price Year-Over-Year Median Price Year-Over-Year $245,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000

$150,000 $100,000 $50,000

+11.4%

$250,000

$150,000

$50,000

2014

Median Price

2015 2014 % Chg YOY Median Price

$273,975

2013

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0%

+0.0%

2015

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0 Jan

% Chg YOY

Gig Harbor/Fox Island Median Gig Harbor/Fox Island Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $450,000

$450,000

$410,000

$400,000

$374,000 $400,000

$374,000

$50,000

$300,000

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

$50,000

Mar

0

May Jan

2014 2013

Jul Mar

2015 2014

Sep May

Nov Jul

2015

Sep

Nov

Gig Harbor/Fox Island: Months Gig Harbor/Fox Island: Months In InventoryIn Inventory

+20.0%

$410,000

+16.0%

$350,000

$250,000

+20.0%

+9.6%

his area80 combines Gig Harbor, across the $350,000 Tacoma Narrows from Point Defiance, with $300,000 the neighboring communities of Artondale and Fox Island. In 2015, sales at 300 percent of the $250,000 median $200,000 price in these areas were seen at Fox Island and Centerwood. Gig Harbor High school is $150,000 ranked among the state’s top public high schools.81 $100,000

+9.6% +11.6%

T

$-

+11.6%

GIG HARBOR/FOX ISLAND

$245,000

+20.0%

$100,000

$-

Fo x I s l a n d , Wa s h i n g t o n $1,120,000 USD

$273,975

+11.8%

$300,000

+11.8% +11.4%

$300,000

2013 10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2014 2013

2015 2014

2015

2 2 Gig Harbor is a boomburb for Tacoma and +0.0% $+0.0% $1 2014 2015 1 2014 2015 Bremerton as well. It is the third-fastest growing city 0 0 Median Price % Chg YOY in Pierce County, with a 20 percent population gain Median Price % Chg YOY Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov over the past five years, and seven percent growth just since 2014.82 Annexation does not explain this growth, which has taken place amid the existing to its larger neighbors), nearly 90 percent of workers commute.84 Consequently, community. To date, housing appears to be keeping despite the enormous growth, the market here has generally remained balanced in recent years.Waterfront Months in inventory averaged 4.2 in Lake 2015,Washington 5.4 in 2014,Waterfront: and 5.3 in 2013. Lake Washington up, following the population growth at 20.9 percent. Lake Washington Waterfront Lake Washington Waterfront:

Median Price Year-Over-Year Median Price Year-Over-Year

Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

2015, the median price Harbor/Fox Island was nearly2014 67 percent higher $2,500,000 +20.0%in Gig+20.0% From 2010 through 2015, the stock of SFRs in In $2,500,000 2013 2015 2013 2014 $2,061,00 $2,015,00 $2,061,00 than the Pierce County median price. Although the year-over-year price growth $2,015,00 Gig Harbor grew by 17 percent, with multifamily 0 16 00 16 not as strong as in the0 preceding year, it the countywide rate of +16.0% $2,000,000 was 15 still outpaced mushrooming by 28.3 percent.83 $2,000,000 +16.0% 15 14 14 increase. Deviation of prices from list here 13 and throughout Pierce County tended 13 12 the buyer toward the downside, strongly contrasting with competition seen in King +12.0% $1,500,000 12 +12.0% This area is farther out than many for commuting, $1,500,000 11 11 County over the past year. 10 although even at Fox Island (which is linked by bridge 10 $1,000,000

$1,000,000

+8.0%

+8.0%

$500,000

$500,000

+4.0%

+4.0%

9 8 7 6 5 4

9 8 7 6 5 4

2015


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 55

B a i n b r i d ge I s l a n d , Wa s h i n g to n $ 2 ,75 0,0 0 0 US D

BA I N B R I D G E I SL A N D

B

Bainbridge Island Median Bainbridge Island Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year $700,000

+20.0%

$700,000 $615,000

$600,000

$600,000 $542,500

Bainbridge Island: Bainbridge Island: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory +20.0%

2013

$615,000

$542,500

6

6

2

2

1

1

2014 2013

2015 2014

2015

+13.4% +10.9%

+13.4%

+15.5%

+15.5%

+10.9%

+16.0% +16.0% ainbridge Island in Kitsap County includes $500,000 $500,000 5 5 Port Madison, Rolling Bay, and dozens of other +12.0% +12.0% $400,000 $400,000 small communities, as well as the historic town 4 4 of Winslow. The island’s Bainbridge High$300,000 School $300,000 +8.0% +8.0% 3 and Eagle Harbor High School are both ranked 3 $200,000 $200,000 among the top public high schools in the state +4.0% 2 +4.0% 2 by U.S.News & World Report.85 The population $100,000 $100,000 has held relatively steady at just over 23,000 since 1 1 $+0.0% $+0.0% 2010.86 Despite its proximity to Seattle by ferry, 2014 2015 2014 2015 0 0 Bainbridge Island’s 27.6 square miles available as Median Price Median % ChgPrice YOY % Chg YOY Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov living space render a population density of only 847 persons per square mile (psm). This is 59 percent averaged 2.1 in 2015, 2.8 in 2014, and 3.5 in 2013. less concentrated than Tiburon in California’s San Francisco Bay Area (2,065 psm), and even Southeast Seattle Median PriceMedian Price Seattle: Seattle Southeast As Southeast in many other exurban locations, prices tendSoutheast to be more volatileSeattle: on 39 percent less dense than Anacortes in Skagit Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory Year-Over-Year Months In Inventory Bainbridge Island, as seen in these charts. Yet here again, the island benefits County (1,388 psm). Accordingly, 80.8 percent of +20.0% $500,000 +20.0% $500,000 2013 2015 2014 2015 as a bedroom community to Seattle: the median price rose 2014 by2013 double digits Bainbridge Island’s housing stock remains single$438,750 $438,750 $450,000 $450,000 4 was 137.94percent higher than the in each of the past two years, and in 2015 family. $380,000 $380,000 +16.0% $400,000 +16.0% $400,000 Kitsap County median. In 2014, seller price concessions were more common $350,000 $350,000 on Bainbridge Island than later in the past year, underscoring the need for The island has been a seller’s market since October 3 3 +12.0% $300,000 +12.0% $300,000 a comparative market analysis and professional guidance when pricing a 2014, and monthly supply spent most of 2015 $250,000 $250,000 property for sale. below two months. The months in inventory +8.0% $200,000 +8.0%

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$-

+8.0%

+8.0%

$200,000

$150,000

+4.0%

+0.0%

+4.0%


Burien/Normandy Burien/Normandy Park: Park: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

Burien/Normandy Burien/Normandy Park MedianPark Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

$200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

$-

$2014

2015 2014

Median Price

$287,000 +20.0%

+20.0%

$244,950

Median % ChgPrice YOY

+17.2%

$200,000

$250,000

$287,000

+17.2%

$250,000

$300,000 $244,950

+9.8%

$300,000

+9.8%

56 // C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

2013 5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

% Chg YOY

$400,000

$350,000

$350,000

$300,000

$300,000

$250,000

$250,000

$200,000

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000

$50,000

$50,000

+6.9%

$150,000 $100,000

$-

$2014

P OU L SB O

Median % ChgPrice YOY

+24.0%

+20.0%

+20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

+16.0%

$200,000 $150,000

May Jan

8

7

6

6

+12.0%

+12.0%

5

5

+8.0%

+8.0%

4

4

$100,000

+4.0%

+4.0%

3

3

$50,000

+0.0%

+0.0%

2

2

-4.0%

1

1

Median Price

-0.4%

$-

2014

+19.5%

7

+16.0%

$250,000

2015 2014 Median % ChgPrice YOY

-4.0% 2015 % Chg YOY

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

20142013

20152014

2015

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

Sep

Nov

20142013

20152014

2015

8

+19.5%

$274,900

Mar

2013

+20.0%

$300,000 $274,900

Sep May

Poulsbo: Months Poulsbo: in inventory Months in inventory

+20.0%

$300,000

he Poulsbo area on the Kitsap Peninsula $250,000 comprises the communities of Poulsbo, $200,000 Lemolo, Lincoln Hill, and Poulsbo Place. Poulsbo is the home of West Sound Academy, one $150,000 of the SEVP private schools certified to admit foreign students at both the middle and upper $100,000 school $50,000 levels.87 The population of Poulsbo—originally a Native American settlement, later a Scandinavian $enclave—is estimated to have grown from 9,200 in 2010 to 9,950 in 2015.88 SFRs comprise 67.7 percent of the local housing stock. After dipping briefly into seller’s market territory in mid-2014, the monthly supply tightened three more times, then remained there from June 2015 through the end of the year. The average supply of homes for sale was 2.4 months in 2015, down from 4.0 in 2014 and 5.1 in 2013.   Demonstrating the degree to which prices in this market can shift, Poulsbo’s median sale price more than reversed 2014’s year-over-year decline, returning a 19.5 percent gain in 2015—the second-

$328,377

Mar Jul

0 Jan

+24.0%

$350,000

May Jan

2013

0

% Chg YOY

+24.0% $328,377

$350,000

Mar

5

Poulsbo Median Poulsbo PriceMedian Price Year-over-year Year-over-year

-0.4%

T

2015 2014

Median Price

Po u l s b o, Wa s h i n g t o n $1,055,000 USD

$385,000

2015

West Seattle:West Seattle: Months In Inventory Months In Inventory

$435,000

+13.0%

$400,000

$385,000

+24.0% $435,000

+13.0%

$450,000

+6.9%

$500,000

$450,000

20152014

0 Jan

West SeattleWest Median Seattle PriceMedian Year- Price YearOver-Year Over-Year $500,000

20142013

0

0 Jan

Mar

May Jan

Mar Jul

Sep May

Nov Jul

highest percentage gain we saw after Belltown/Downtown Seattle. Although slightly more volatile than prices in Kitsap County generally, sale prices and their deviation from list prices trended with others countywide, which have together irregularly risen toward 100 percent over the past two years.

Sep

Nov


// C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 57

Po r t L u d l ow, Wa s h i n g t o n $560,000 USD

$275,000

$283,750 $283,750 $275,000 +20.0%

$250,000

2013 +20.0%

+16.0%

+16.0%

+12.0%

+12.0%

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

2014 2013 2015 2014

2015

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000

$-

$-

2014

2014 2015

+8.0%

+8.0%

+4.0%

+4.0%

+3.2%

$250,000

ort Ludlow is an unincorporated community in Jefferson County near the mouth$200,000 of the Hood Canal separating the Olympic and Kitsap peninsulas. The estimated total population$150,000 in 2014 was 2,461; nearly 70 percent of that population was $100,000 on social security payments and 44.2 percent were drawing retirement. SFRs comprise 85.5 percent of $50,000 the local housing stock in Port Ludlow.89

$300,000

+1.9%

$300,000

+3.2%

P

Port Ludlow: Months In Inventory Port Ludlow: Months In Inventory

Port Ludlow Median Port Ludlow Median Price Year-Over-Year Price Year-Over-Year

+1.9%

P O RT LU D L OW

+0.0% 2015

+0.0%

+8.0%

+8.0%

$200,000

$200,000

$100,000

$100,000

+8.2%

$300,000

+4.0%

+8.2%

+15.5%

+15.5%

0 0 Given the market drivers in this location, the Jan Jul Mar Sep May Nov Jul Sep Nov Median Price % Chg YOY Jan Mar May Median Price % Chg YOY supply of homes for sale is often out of balance with demand, so sellers and their agents need to refugees from Seattle and elsewhere around the Sound. As a result, the median be especially diligent about pricing and marketing sale price of homes in Port Ludlow has exceeded that of Jefferson County at properties. Until 2015, monthly supply provided East Side South: Months In East Side South Of I-90 Median by percent—unsurprisingly, as so much of the comprises little guidance to the prospective time on market. East Sidecounty South: Months In rural East Side large South Of5.5 I-90 Median Inventory Price Year-Over-Year Inventory Price Year-Over-Year areas and wilderness further west. Port Ludlow is one among six of the 24 areas In the early summer, however, Port Ludlow moved +20.0% their county medians. Although $700,000 +20.0% $700,000 2014 studied in which prices did not outpace this 2015 to a more balanced position. The months in 2013 2014 2013 2015in $625,000 $625,000 case, not by much: the Jefferson County gain was only 4.05 percent year-over$577,600 inventory averaged 8.9 in both 2014 and 2015. 3 $577,600 3 $600,000 $600,000 +16.0% +16.0% Jefferson year. Sellers throughout County have tended to price properties too $500,000 high, but price reductions in Port Ludlow have not reached the levels found to Port Ludlow’s location at the eastern $500,000 end of the north or west in+12.0% the county.+12.0% $400,000 Jefferson County, just over the Hood Canal$400,000 Bridge 2 2 from Kitsap County, enables it to draw weekend $300,000

+4.0%

1

1


58 // OUR PHILOSOPHY //

SINCE 1744 THE SOTHEBY’S BRAND IS RENOWNED WORLDWIDE FOR MARKETING THE EXTRAORDINARY. WE CONTINUE THIS LEGACY IN THE PASSIONATE PURSUIT OF REAL ESTATE EXCELLENCE WITH TRUSTED INSIGHT, QUALITY SERVICE AND PROVEN RESULTS AT ALL PRICE POINTS. WHETHER YOUR NEXT ADDRESS IS AROUND THE CORNER OR AROUND THE GLOBE, WE’RE HERE TO HELP.

1744


// OUR PHILOSOPHY // 59

ARTFULLY UNITING EXTRAORDINARY HOMES WITH EXTRAORDINARY LIVES

OU R P H I L O S O P H Y

R

ealogics Sotheby's International Realty (RSIR) is built upon a foundation of breaking through the status quo to create new conversations for brokers within the markets it serves. With a passion for evolving forward, RSIR fosters a progressive culture to cultivate change, and celebrates each agent with a brokercentric business model of award-winning marketing and micro-branding. With an “international” middle name, RSIR represents the best of both worlds through a local and global reach. Given this position, RSIR is responsible for representing the Puget Sound region to an international audience to showcase the amazing lifestyle and potential this area holds. RSIR proudly represents global citizens and is thrilled they’re choosing to make their homes here.


60 // INDEX //

INDEX COMMUNITY REPORTS

NEIGHBORHOOD REPORTS

16 // KING C OUNT Y //

26 // BELLT OWN & D OWNT OWN SEAT TLE //

18 // PIERCE C OUNT Y // 19 // SNOHOMISH C OUNT Y // 20 // KIT SAP C OUNT Y // 21 // SKAGIT C OUNT Y // 22 // ISL AND C OUNT Y // 23 // JEFFERSON C OUNT Y //

28 // CENTR AL SEAT TLE OVERVIEW // 29 // QUEEN ANNE/MAGNOLIA // 30 // CENTR AL WEST L AKE WASHINGT ON // 32 // BALL ARD/GREEN L AKE/FREMONT // 33 // WEST SEAT TLE // 34 // NORTH SEAT TLE // 35 // SOUTHEAST SEAT TLE // 36 // MERCER ISL AND // 37 // KIRKL AND/BRIDLE TR AILS // 38 // JUANITA/WO ODINVILLE // 39 // REDMOND/CARNATION // 40 // WEST BELLEVUE // 41 // BELLEVUE EAST OF I-405 // 42 // SOUTHWEST L AKE WASHINGT ON // 44 // EASTERN L AKE WASHINGT ON WATERFRONT // 45 // EAST OF L AKE SAMMAMISH // 46 // EAST SIDE SOUTH OF 1-90 // 47 // NORTHEAST SNOHOMISH // 48 // SOUTHWEST SNOHOMISH // 49 // EVERET T/MUKILTEO // 50 // ANAC ORTES // 51 // CAMANO ISL AND // 52 // SOUTHWEST KING C OUNT Y/BROWNS POINT // 53 // BURIEN/NORMANDY PARK // 54 // GIG HARBOR/FOX ISL AND // 55 // BAINBRID GE ISL AND // 56 // POULSBO // 57 // PORT LUDLOW //


// REFERENCES // 61

REFERENCES 1. Raicht, Patricia and Aida Zain. (Q4-2015). "Office Insight: Market momentum shows no sings of slowing down." Jones Lang LaSalle. Retrieved from http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/enus/Research/US-Seattle-Bellevue-Office-Insight-Q4-2015-JLL. pdf 2. Lamm, Greg. (19 Aug. 2015). "Booming tech industry drives Seattle unemployment rate to pre-recession levels." The Puget Sound Business Journal. Note: these counties are monitored together as the "Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)" for analytical purposes by the U.S. Bureau of Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 3. Smith, Rob. (18 Dec. 2015). "Jobs may be tougher to come by for Seattle area IT workers next year." The Puget Sound Business Journal. 4. BLS. (30 Dec. 2015). "Seattle Area Economic Summary." BLS. Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/regions/west/summary/ blssummary_seattle.pdf 5. BLS. (30 Apr. 2015). "Occupational Employment and Wages in Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, May 2014." BLS. Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/ occupationalemploymentandwages_seattle.htm 6. Forecasting & Research Division. (Sept. 2015) "Population Trends." Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM). 6. 7. Washington State Department of Licensing (DOL). (2015, 2014, 2013). "Washington State Drivers Report." DOL. 8. Goldsmith, Steven. (18 Sept. 2015). "Feeling crowded? Seattle area adds 61,373 residents in a year." The Puget Sound Business Journal. 9. United States Census Bureau. (2014). "American Community Survey (ACS)." United States Census Bureau. 10. NWMLS (2015). "Annual Statistical Reviews." NWMLS. 11. Ibid. "Month's supply is an estimate of how long it would take for the entire inventory of active listings to sell at the current pace, assuming no new inventory comes onto the market. Economists consider a supply of 3-to-6 months to be a balanced market, meaning the market favors neither buyers nor sellers." 12. OFM. 5, 13. 13. Ibid. 31. 14. Ibid. 31, 38-39.

15. Ibid. 5, 13. 16. Ibid. 32. 17. Ibid. 39. 18. Ibid. 32. 19. Ibid. 8. 20. Ibid. 30. 21. These data deliver a reminder of how important it is to select a Realtor速 who knows your market and carefully consider their guidance when pricing property. 22. OFM. 32. 23. The county comprises two principal, well-populated islands with contrasting transportation linkages. Whidbey Island, the larger of the two islands, is joined to the mainland by the Edmonds-Kingston and Port Townsend-Keystone ferries in the south, and by Deception Pass Bridge on the northern tip of the island. Camano Island connects from its northern end to Interstate 5 by State Route 520 through the town of Stanwood. The different points of entry/egress mean that a driver must leave the county to enter one island from the other. 24. OFM. 29. 25. Ibid. 5, 8, 10. Note: The Camano Island Chamber of Commerce cites an estimate of 15,600 residents http://camanoisland.org/ about-camano The U.S. Census American Community Survey reports 15,201 for 2014; it also reports 8,590 housing units in the Camano Island Census Designated Place (CDP), which would comprise 28.8 percent of housing in unincorporated Island County. 26. Ibid 5, 7. Note: attributed to birth-death adjustment (OFM). 27. Ibid. 29. 28. Stiles, Marc. (29 Dec. 2015). "Co-working company enters Seattle by acquiring prominent Pioneer Square building." The Puget Sound Business Journal. 29. U.S. News. (2015). "Best High School Rankings." U.S. News. Retrieved from http://www.usnews.com/education/best-highschools/national-rankings 30. DHS. (Accessed 13 Dec. 2015). "Study in the States." DHS. Retrieved from https://studyinthestates.dhs.gov/school-search 31. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings."


62 // REFERENCES //

REFERENCES 32. U.S.News. (2015.) "North Seattle." U.S. News.

56. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings."

33. Zak, Annie. (17 June 2015). "Selling Seattle: The neighborhood drawing most interest from Bay Area buyers isn't Capitol Hill, Queen Anne or Ballard." The Puget Sound Business Journal. 34. U.S. News "Best High School Rankings." 35. U.S.News. (2015.) "North Seattle." U.S. News. 36. DHS Study in the States. 37. OFM. 11. 38. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings." 39. OFM. 29. 40. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings." 41. DHS Study in the States. 42. OFM. 37. 43. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings." 44. OFM. 11, 18. 45. Ibid. 29-30. 46. DHS Study in the States. 47. OFM. 11.

57. OFM. 29-30. 58. U.S. News "Best High School Rankings." 59. OFM. 11, 29. 60. Ibid. 13-14.

48. Ibid. 29. 49. DHS Study in the States.

73. Ibid. 74. Two areas in this report, "Southwest King County/Browns Point" and "Gig Harbor/Fox Island" are assembled from multiple areas in the NWMLS database. Southwest King County/Browns Point comprises areas 94, 95, 110 and 120, including the city of Des Moines.

50. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings." 51. Note: with plans to move to Interbay at Smith Cove in 2018. 52. Dill, Kathryn. (13 May 2015). "The Best Cities for Millennials Right Now." Forbes. 53. U.S. News "Best High School Rankings." 54. City Data. (2014). "Bellevue, Washington." City Data. Retrieved from http://www.city-data.com/city/BellevueWashington.html 55. OFM. 29.

61. Ibid. 32. 62. DHS Study in the States. 63. OFM. 13. 64. Ibid. 32. 65. U.S.News. (2015.) "North Seattle." U.S. News. 66. OFM. 13-14. 67. Ibid. 32. 68. United States Census Bureau. ACS 2014. 69. U.S.News. (2015.) "North Seattle." U.S. News. 70. OFM. 13. 71. Ibid. 32. 72. United States Census Bureau. ACS 2014.

75. U.S.News. (2015.) "North Seattle." U.S. News. 76. OFM. 11. 77. Ibid. 29. 78. United States Census Bureau. ACS 2014. 79.DHS Study in the States. 80. The "Gig Harbor/Fox Island" area as outlined in this report


// REFERENCES // 63

REFERENCES comprises NWMLS areas 1, 5, 6, 7 and 8. 81. U.S. News. (2015.) "North Seattle." U.S. News. 82. OFM. 13. 83. Ibid. 131. 84. United States Census Bureau. ACS 2014. 85. U.S.News "Best High School Rankings." 86. OFM. 11. 87. DHS Study in the States. 88. OFM. 11. 89. U.S. Census Bureau ACS. ----- Bellevue School District. (Accessed 15 Dec. 2015). "Bellevue School District 405 Statistics." Bellevue School District. Retrieved from https://www.bsd405.org/nhs/about Department of Homeland Security (DHS). (Aug. 2014). "2013 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics." DHS. 10-11. Note: In 2013, North America and the Caribbean sent just over 1,000 more emigrants to the U.S. than did Asia. Downtown Seattle Association. (June 2015). "Development Guide." Downtown Seattle. Retrieved from http://www. downtownseattle.com/resources/development-and-constructionprojects/ Stiles, Marc. (23 Nov. 2015). "Amazon will start building third Seattle skyscraper next fall." The Puget Sound Business Journal. Stiles, Marc. (5 July 2015). "Amazon's 7.5M sq. ft. of space in Seattle." The Puget Sound Business Journal. Stiles, Marc. (23 Nov. 2015). "Bad timing: As thousands of new apartments open, Seattle's rental market weakens." The Puget Sound Business Journal. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). (Accessed 13 Dec. 2015). "Immigrant Investor Regional Centers." USCIS. Retrieved from www.uscis.gov/eb-5centers UW Office of the Registrar. (Autumn 2014). "University of Washington: International Students Profile 2014). UW Data

Management. Wingfield, Nick. (8 Oct. 2015). "Seattle, in Midst of Tech Boom, Tries to keep Its Soul." The Seattle Times.


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