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College of Mount Saint Vincent ​hi I'm Dana Underwood filipa card ends Isaac geisler I'm Kumar Cara and we're here to present to you today our design of a transoceanic cable protection system currently cybering a submarine fiber optic cables carried 99 percent of all international communications and billions of dollars are invested in his network it's also been growing by about thirty percent thirty six percent annually since 2007 and between 100-150 cable faults occur per year causing damage to this system of the twenty percent of the causes of this damage are never identified and each damage incident cost millions of dollars in repair costs and losses in bandwidth capabilities so our goal is to design a project that will be able to monitor cables identify system threats and hopefully prevent some of these damage incidents from occurring so to start off we're going to go over just a few major things here first of all here is a map of the current network that is in the oceans right now you can see there's well over 300 individual cable systems been working right now and of those 53 are transoceanic or the long haul systems that go in between the continents nearly 12 billion dollars has been invested in these in this cable system in the last six years and there are 31 new systems coming online worth almost five billion dollars in the next couple years so what's driving this growth there's a huge increase in the demand for international bandwidth over the last few years as you can see on this chart at the year end of 2013 there was 87 terabit per second capability of bandwidth across the entire world and that is projected to grow into the 700 terabit per second range be a planned projects that are currently in development so what causes damage to the cable system there's a few major causes but the biggest one by far is accidental damage caused by fishing and shipping activities as you can see on this chart here over twenty percent of the causes though are unknown as you can also see on the far right side of all of these damages and it's also important to note that approximately seventy percent of them occur in the littoral zone or postal areas of shallow water one of the major problems that we've run into with this project and we think is causing some of the problems out there is that there is no kind of mandated reporting or logging of these dammit incidents even in this major study don't make psycho telecommunications there are still a great number of false I we're not account it for in this study so one of the main issues facing our project is the lack of data and we hope that increasing the amount of data we're going to get through this project is going to help significantly in preventing new damage incidents so in the case that a threat becomes a fault this is the current repair process that occurs the first part is finding the fault location and notifying the repair ship which can be delayed due to inaccurate or slow fault location information the second part is the ship travel it can be delayed due to inaccurate fault location and poor weather finally the last part is the actual repair which can also be delayed due to inaccurate or slow fault patient information therefore our problem statement is that there are over a hundred fifty cable faults that happen every year primary causes of which are fishing and anchoring incidents twenty one percent of them twenty percent of them were unknown which could be due to his espionage and sabotage and an average of three weeks and over three million dollars of cost is due to repair damage thus there's a need to increase surveillance of cables in order to decrease the number of faults increase the rate of detection and increase the availability of the cable system now we're going to go over operational concept and the solution that we've come up with for this problem for our system objectives we've identified three major functions that need to be accomplished first is threat identification we want to identify with surface level threats like commercial shipping and fishing vessels as well as underwater threats next is prevention monitoring we want to prevent falls before they happen by monitoring shipping and fishing and lastly coordinate repair coordination so we want to notify repair companies of fault type and location for faster repair here's the table showing our design alternatives for the first function which was threat i dint ification the top left we have the automatic ident automatic identification system this is a transponder that's required by law to be on all ships over two hundred ninety nine tons it has about a 200 nautical miles from the from the shore it's actually currently being used but more more in a reactive system rather than a preventative system which we're looking to use the next three are autonomous underwater vehicles they're basically underwater drones that can maneuver through walk through the water in a predetermined path or by using sensors such as sonar the sonar that these autonomous underwater vehicles will be using is a synthetic aperture Center it's a high-powered sonar system that can produce high resolution images last alternative at the bottom is a hydrophone array these are stationary nodes that are positioned along the length of cable so instead of actively going out looking for threats they are listening for noise created by threats whether it's an engine noise or a suspicious diver I with its oxygen tanks here's a summary of the design of terms that just mentioned on the left you can see the AIS system on the ship and in fishing vessels in the


middle we have the hydrophone array with the buoy at the top which can transmit data to to a source based on based on the sensors and the data that routes that it receives on the right way of the auv s or autonomous underwater vehicles which have different types of capabilities so because there's so many moving parts to the system we envision having a centralized location where we can it process all the information identify threats and carry out prevention mechanism this centralized location is denoted by the bold black box of us around the three major functions we call this mission control the three major functions identification prevention and coordination of repair all take place within that black box on the left side of this diagram you see the threats that entered a system this is a surface level activity and the underwater activity these threats are picked up by our sonar sensors which is the sensors which are the second box and that information is sentenced the identification mechanism of Mission Control once in Mission Control we can then combine that with historical data to find out the probability of a threat occurring and a fault occurring and take all that information and send it to the prevention block the prevention block and send messages out to two threats in order to prevent order to create deterrence or they can send messages out to the authorities in order to alert than the default is potentially going to take place however if this fails of that fault data is then combined with the cable performance data to identify the location of the fault and the type of old and then sent out to repair coordination function which will done contact repair companies in order to facilitate repair next we're looking at the simulation that we design in order to research this problem so a few major things we want to look at here is the effectiveness of single technologies combination of technologies and full versus partial coverage of the protected cable this can be important because we aren't sure how each of these technologies going to work and we may be able to find combination the technology that work better than any single one we also want to determine the ability and cost of these cables of these cables production systems and hopefully verify our results here's our design of experiment for this the first one we're going to test was on the cable called the SE aus that goes through the Pacific Ocean you can see the different types of systems that we are looking at testing and the different coverage percentages that each of those systems offers to the cable here is our simulation model how we're actually going to simulate the TCPS system in green we have our simulation inputs and outputs we're going to be bringing in our TCPS agent data and our cable profile for the cable that we're going to be looking at and an output outputting all the data that we're recording from that simulation in red we have our threat generation and it's ready to fall conversion we are estimating that based on real-world data that we have found and we have our three TCPS functions identification prevention and repair coordination model in their respective color boxes going a little bit first on our inputs so here's a chart that shows the sample input for one of our hybrid protection cases you can see all the different types of TCPS technologies that are gonna be active on the cable and the ranges and speeds that they're able to move at here's a look at the cable profile that we inputted we use the n.o double-a bathymetric maps in order to find depth profiles and input that into the simulation system as shown below and here for a threat generation this was kind of the one we had to get a little creative because there simply is not data on the actual threats there is only data on the actual faults that happen so by using the fault data we made some estimations in order to add an espionage and sabotage chances so our simulation real detect those and then we normalize that data estimated about a fifty percent chance of a fault on a single cable per year and then created a threat default conversion probability based on the type of fault for example we think fishing is it fairly none as important threat so it's only got a five percent chance of a threat to fall conversion where sabotage is a huge threat so it's got a one hundred percent threat to fault conversion chance from that we were you able to calculate the estimate inter arrival time of all threats which is about 1390 hours in between serious threats on the cable system and we simulated that with a Poisson distribution in the java simulation for our threat generate we also created a lawyer time which is the amount of time that the threat would stay in the cable system this is the amount of time that the TCPS system has to detect and prevent the threat we based this based on estimates on the different types of threats and for our outputs so first the simulation is a Monte Carlo simulation we ran 7700 replications per run and the clock in the simulation runs for 10 hours and it clicks on an hourly basis so 87,000 ticks and the idea is all of this data that is tracking is being output for each of these lines so we could get good statistical data from that looking at our first results here we've got the SES us simulation output for the as-is case obviously nothing was detected nothing was prevented and then you can see the data for each of us and alternatives here the major ones to point out are the hydrophone and the second hybrid case of for a ISS and the thousand hydrophone buoys both detected a huge amount of the different threats on the cable system and we're able to prevent a significant amount also of note at the very bottom is the hybrid partial coverage case which was able to detect a significant amount and prevent quite a few as well well at a very lower cost compared to the other options a little more on that we're going to the costs that were generated by the simulation output so for the as-is system over 10 years we're estimating about 1,300 1,300 hours of downtime and about 10 million dollars in damages and losses over that 10-year period with an availability of below


99 percent are only a single 9 whereas for our hydrophone cases were able to improve those dramatically cutting the downtime and the repair costs and bandwidth losses in approximately half and increasing the availability of cable system by almost a full percentage you can also see at the bottom again the partial coverage hybrid it was also very competitive being able to significantly reduce losses well significantly increasing uptime just not quite as much as the full coverage cases so in order to evaluate the outputs of the simulation we can serve to this utility hierarchy of the four major categories of the utility hierarchy can are consistent with the requirements so the first one is prevention the second one is identification third one is availability and the fourth one is environmental impact these are sample weights that are all we came up with based off of our research however once the cable is actually in place we can then utilize about the data that we get from cable companies in order to make accurate weights so the outputs of the simulation then plot on this graph with costs versus utility as you can see in the top left you get the highest utility cases as a hybrid case 2 and the hydrophone case these provide about point 7 utility and it cost is about 12 to 13 million dollars however if you go down to slightly about 0.5% our shal coverage cases they provide pretty high utility but the significant portion is that the cost is less than about 1 to 2 million dollars that's 12 to 30 times less and the elder the other two cases this means that depending what the stakeholder wants we can then provide a design alternative which best suits the recommendation for either coverage or costs finally in order we evaluated the sensitivity to find out just some stronger results are these are the most important weighting of measures that had the most sensitive results as you can see they're not very sensitive the one on the top left has a sensitivity about point four however the other two have basically no sensitivity that means even if you change the waiting's from zero to 100 there's no difference in the top design alternative so for a recommendation we've discovered that high levels of protection can be achieved with constant monitoring of high-risk areas such as littoral zones combination of AIS hydrophone arrays and even wave gliders provides the low-cost solution for the best protection lastly a Mission Control Center is necessary for prevention repair coordination where we will be able to send relevant messages to the appropriate authorities thank you for listening and hope you enjoyed our presentation you Albert Einstein College of Medicine.

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