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RETAIL IN EASTERN EUROPE ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR OWN BACK YARD SUMMER 2008

BY KARL ECKERDAL CLAUS FRISENBERG JENS HØGSTED


countries, each in their own way, are attractive. However, we find that even greater growth possibilities await in Eastern Europe and that’s the primary reason for these pages. We will try to pass on a number of facts, study results, learning’s and viewpoints about Eastern Europe that we have picked up during our working in the past few years.

FACT #1: Poland has 20% more households with a disposable income that equals or exceeds the Danish average than Denmark – and the number is growing rapidly. FACT #2: At the World Retail Congress in Barcelona, April 2008, the best shopping destinations of the year were praised. Three of the six nominees were located in Eastern Europe – like the winner, Zlote Tarasy in Warsaw.

“EASTERN EUROPE IS ONE COMMON MARKET”

WRONG. This is unfortunately an example of the perception that companies start-off with when they begin to consider an Eastern European market entry.

FACT #3: Today, the average sales price for a pair of ECCO shoes is 15% higher in Eastern Europe compared to Western Europe These are just a few intriguing facts that we have come across while working with international retailers. At the same time we have experienced that there are many myths and wrong perceptions about Eastern Europe.

It is our experience that Eastern Europe constitutes a colourful patchwork of cultural, administrative and economic differences that may be categorised in 3 distinct groups.

1 (Poland, Czech Rep., The Baltic States and Hungary,) ▪ “WILD WILD EAST” (Russia and Ukraine) ▪ “EMERGING MARKETS” (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia) ▪ “FAR AWAY” (Other Eastern European countries, e.g. Moldavia, Albania and Georgia).

We wish to share the following key messages:

▪ Eastern Europe is not one market, but can be

▪ ▪

divided into four distinct groups: entry strategies must be aligned accordingly - in some markets you will need local expertise (e.g. a distributor) to succeed Eastern Europe is characterized by a significant spread in wealth and disposable income, however the average is growing fast Eastern Europeans has tremendous crave for Western brands and goods Retail is highly concentrated in urban areas. Retailers need to concentrate on tier 1 cities, a few tier 2 cities and forget about high street locations… shopping malls rule the retail landscape! Eastern Europe is not a garbage can for worn out shop fittings and last years styles: in many locations, investments and competition are above Western European standards Eastern Europe can hardly be conquered through wholesale distribution: the retail scene is dominated by monobrand retailers, and a very few multibrand concepts - entry via monobrand concept shops is typically the best route!

“LITTLE EU ”

In this article we will primarily touch upon the first 3 groups.

LITTLE EU

This group obviously consists of many of Eastern European countries that entered the EU during the last decade – Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Baltic States. However, these countries geared their economies and business climate towards western standards even before they entered the EU. From a retail perspective this means: ▪ The investment level, when entering this region is the same as when entering a market in Western Europe

Many people talk about the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the growth potential they hold. Naturally, we agree that these

1

Formal EU-membership does not automatically mean membershio of this group. Economic climate needs to be in place too.

2


▪ There is a low level of bureaucracy and

EMERGING MARKETS

corruption ▪ The consumers are accustomed to world class retail centres ▪ There is a high number of international brands already present in the region ▪ Entrants should look for tier 1 and 2 locations and shopping malls – the malls dominate the retail landscape and high street locations are not at all what they are in the West

In the remaining Eastern European EU-countries the retail sector can still be characterised to be in its initial phase – where many of the more mature Eastern European markets were 10-15 years ago. From a retail perspective this means:

▪ The retail development process (concentration, chains, concepts) is still relatively slow

▪ Investment levels are generally in the low end However, the mature state of retailing in these countries does not equal low growth rates. The economic growth in these markets is ongoing – and we expect them to continue to be among the most attractive retail markets.

compared to Western European standards

▪ Opportunity to take a first mover advantage – through early market entry

▪ There is a medium to high level of bureaucracy and corruption

▪ The consumers are not accustomed to conceptual retail, which means that an early entry also include some “training” of the consumers.

WILD WILD EAST

Russia and the Ukraine and can to some extent be considered one market – due to geographic closeness and parallel economic development paces. However, due to sheer size and complexity each country should be considered separately in regard to business planning purposes.

Below is an illustration of the traditional retail development process; going from under developed - through growth – and finally to a mature retail state.

From a retail perspective this means: ▪ The investment level, when entering this region will be higher than when entering a market in Western Europe ▪ There is a medium to high level of bureaucracy and corruption, e.g. paying a “fee” to speed up public and governmental decision processes – therefore we advice entrants to engage with local distributors ▪ Entrants should look for tier 1 locations exclusively (Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kiev) ▪ The consumers are increasingly accustomed to world class retail centres ▪ High numbers of international luxury brands are already present in the tier 1 locations.

ILLUSTRATION OF COUNTRY SPECIFIC RETAIL STATUS AND EXPECTED FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PATHS “LITTLE EU”

“WILD WILD EAST”

“EMERGING MARKETS”

“FAR AWAY”

MATURE MARKET

GROWTH MARKET

FIRST MOVER

NOT READY YET

Poland

Russia

Bulgaria

Czech Republic

Ukraine

Romania

Moldavia Albania

Hungary

Slovenia

Georgia

The Baltic States

Serbia

Armenia

Slovakia

Croatia …

INTERVIEWS & COCOCO EXPERIENCE

As economic development spreads from the tier 1 cities, the present retail development pace is expected to continue with even higher speed in the years to come.

3


An illustrative example is the annual increase in disposable income from 2002 to 2007. In Russia it amounted to 23%, in Rumania the figure was 22% and in Poland 7%. Denmark had a 4% annual increase in the corresponding time period.

“THE POTENTIAL OF EASTERN EUROPE IS GROWING, BUT STILL A FEW YEARS AWAY FROM HAPPENING”

WRONG. In recent years, Eastern Europe has strengthened its position as an attractive retail environment. The favourable economic development is the main contributor, but also the improved domestic business conditions, enabling international businesses to operate more easily.

DISPOSABLE INCOME DEVELOPMENT (INDEX, 2002 = 100)

300

Besides the economic wealth, Eastern Europeans crave for western goods is expected to continue and fuel the retail growth.

Wild Wild East 250

Referring to the 2007 Global Retail Development Index (GRDI)2 which rank the most promising emerging retail markets, Eastern European countries (Russia, Ukraine and Latvia) possess three of the top seven positions. Russia retains its position as the biggest and most promising retail market in Eastern Europe. The retail sector is booming as a consequence of better household economies and increased consumer spending – a situation experienced by most Eastern European countries.

200

Little EU 150

DK 100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 EUROMONITOR

Following the high growth rates in income levels, the Eastern European region, house holds have also experienced an attractive rise in absolute buying power – compared to Danish house holds – leading to growth in retail industries grow as consumers are spending an increasing amount of their disposable income on retail goods.

AT THE LAST WORLD RETAIL CONFERENCE 3 OF 6 BEST GLOBAL RETAIL DESTINATIONS WHERE PLACED IN EASTERN EUROPE.

The accelerating economy is the primary driver behind the retail potential in Eastern Europe. In fact, several countries are experiencing annual GDP- and disposable income growth in the two digit interval.

FACTS ABOUT POLAND (2006 FIGURES)

FACTS ABOUT RUSSIA (2006 FIGURES)

FACTS ABOUT ROMAINIA (2006 FIGURES)

Population

38,1 MIO

Population

142 MIO

Population

21,6 MIO

GNP

8.100 EURO

GNP

7.500 EURO

GNP

3.500 EURO

Growth in BNI

6,5%

Growth in BNI

N/A

Growth in BNI

7,7

Member of EU

YES, SINCE 2004

Member of EU

NO

Member of EU

NO

Capital

WARSAW

Capital

MOSCOW

Capital

BUKARESTI

Distance between Copenhagen and Capital

700 KM

Distance between Copenhagen and Capital

1.650 KM

Distance between Copenhagen and Capital

1.750 KM

WWW.UM.DK

2

Emerging markets

A.T. Kearney study

4


households with larger buying power than an average Danish household has been in the range 15 – 50%. So, although, starting out from a low absolute level, these countries will soon be reaching a comparable level to “Little EU” and Western Europe.

DEVELOPMENT OF BUYING POWER IN EASTERN EUROPE3 – COMPARED TO DK

(DK = 100) 100

100

Despite the strong development and positive outlook in Eastern Europe, it is advised not to postpone an eventual market entry indefinitely – the window of opportunity is close to its peak in several countries, as numerous large retailers already have jumped on the bandwagon.

100

+11%

“CONQUERING EASTERN EUROPEAN RETAILING CAN BE DONE WITH ONE REGIONAL STRATEGY”

WRONG. A study of 29 consumer retailers and their presence in Eastern Europe provides a clear indication of the diversity of the entry strategies in the region4.

54% 41% 19%

1997

2002

At present, the 29 companies have established more than 1600 retail shops in Eastern Europe!

2007

Of the total number of shops more than 1100 shops are situated in “Little EU”, more than 600 in Russia and just below 100 shops in ‘Emerging markets’ (Appendix 3).

BASED UPON FIGURES FROM EUROMONITOR AND THE ECONOMIST

For the combined Eastern European region the buying power compared to Denmark has increased significantly in the last decade; from a relative buying power of 19% in 1997 to 54% in 2007. However, the development covers large differences between the countries. The Czech Republic and Poland represent a buying power close to 60% compared to 40% buying power in Estonia.

Representing close to 60% of all the established shops from the 29 companies, Russia and Poland must be characterised as the main drivers of the 29 ventures into Eastern Europe. However, as we already pointed out, these two countries do have quite different structures.

In Poland and The Czech Republic the number of households that have a buying power higher or equal to an average Danish household has risen by more than 100% on an annual basis since 1995.

RUSSIA

Due to a strong polarisation between the large cities and the rest of the country with regards to distribution of wealth, Russia has an extreme retail structure. With close to 50% of all shops in Russia being situated in Moscow and St. Petersburg, these two cities are the locomotives for the Russian retail development. Surely, retail shops exist outside these cities; however, they are much more scattered and dependent on a more specific match between brand and local needs/economic state.

As a consequence, there are today more than 2,5 million households in Poland that have a buying power equal to or greater than an average Danish household. For reference, there are just above 2 million households in Denmark! In other countries in the Eastern European region the increased household buying power has also been significant. The average annual growth of 3

4

Euromonitor. Based upon available figures from 9 countries

5

CoCoCo study


range from 5000-7000 Euro/year. However, salary levels for management positions vary significant.

Therefore, in Russia, close management attention to the market is critical, in combination with alliances to local distributors.

Russia and Ukraine have management salary levels twice the levels of the Little EU markets, which again is 50% above the salary levels for management positions in Wild East.

POLAND

For Poland the situation is different. Warsaw accounts for less than 20% of the total number of shops in the country, and to reach 50% shop representation you will need to include more than 10 cities. Having undergone a significant change in its retail structure, the Polish retail development is much less dependent on the very large cities. Also, a relatively even distribution of the economic growth has resulted in a wide distribution of retail shops – economic development has travelled from the large cities into the tier 2 and tier 3 cities, pretty much as we know it from the west.

To illustrate the exact levels, a country manager in Russia expects about 150.000 Euro/year. In Poland and Bulgaria the numbers are 75.000 Euro/year and 50.000 Euro/year respectively.

In Poland, management attention, co-operation with other Danish companies in the country and access to competent people and resources are important success factors. However, the price to pay for competing in these growth markets is an increased cost level compared to other regions or countries. The cost of running retail businesses in Eastern Europe5 is still to be considered at a relatively competitive price level – except for Moscow. Throughout Eastern Europe it is our experience that rental cost presently is in the range of 1.200 – 1.800 Euro/year/m2 for a top location in a tier 1 city – with Moscow being an exception at 6.000 8.000/Euro/year/m2. Shop turnover on top locations will reach a level in the range of 15.000-25.000 Euro/year/m2 – again with Moscow being an exception at 40.000 Euro/year/m2. For standard locations the rent and the average shop turnover will generally be half the level for top locations (see appendix 2 for details). With regards to salary cost of staff, this is generally equal across the entire region, in the 5

Based upon CoCoCo project experience, and data from ECCO Eastern Europe HQ

6


THE ECCO CASE WHY AND HOW ECCO ENTERED EASTERN EUROPE

“HOW TO BECOME BIGGER THAN MCDONALDS IN MOSCOW”

ECCO entered the Soviet Union in the early 1980’s – initiated by a contact between the trade attaché at the Soviet embassy in Denmark and Karl Toosbuy, the founder of ECCO. In 1992 the relation had developed into an exclusive distribution agreement, a success subsequently enjoyed in neighbouring countries. In 2001-2002 ECCO opened a local sales office in Warsaw in order to tighten control and ensure a consistent and sustainable retail and shop-in-shop concept. The new concept was launched in 2003 generating yearly growth rates between 30-40%.

With a 25-year presence in Eastern Europe, ECCO offers the following five key learnings:

1. THE IMPORTANCE OF CLOSENESS

If pursuing a market position in Eastern Europe, careful thought should be dedicated to where and how one wishes to organise. Location and relationships are of critical importance. A stereotype sales director flying in for two weeks and staying at SAS Radisson will encounter considerable challenges.

WHAT ECCO ACCOMPLISHED

ECCO has established a significant presence in Eastern Europe, with a 30% yearly increase of store locations since 2005. Today, Russia is ECCO’s third largest market – with close to 250 mono-branded ECCO shops.

2. THE RIGHT COMPETENCES AND ALLIANCES

Standard research about the macroeconomic outlook and demographics is not sufficient. It is recommended to allocate resources for researching the industry at large, incl. all stakeholders which can provide knowledge and experience.

ECCO’s retail strategy is primarily based on solid market knowledge and a willingness to invest and accept “calculated risks”. However it is due to the relatively modest initial investment, and the vision to enter a new somewhat risky market that ECCO today enjoys a solid position in Eastern Europe.

One recommendation is to create an overview of Scandinavian players potentially suited for an alliance. Scandinavian businesses are generally positive with regards to sharing knowledge and experience – Scandinavian Polish Chamber of Commerce is one example. To scan your home market for consultants and analysts with documented knowledge and accomplished results in Eastern Europe is also recommended.

DEVELOPMENT OF ECCO LOCATIONS IN EASTERN EUROPE ECCO Store ECCO Shop in Shop

566 495 417 326

3. THE RIGHT PEOPLE AND RESOURCES

246 184 42

2005

56

2006

83

2007

107

2008

123

F2009

140

Scandinavian leadership culture, flat organisational structures and open communication is highly valued among young talents in Eastern Europe.

F2010

It is recommended to employ Scandinavians for upper management positions, especially in the initial phase of the entry. Local workforce is recommended to employ middle management

ECCO EASTERN EUROPE

7


▪ Differences between tier-one cities and tier-two

positions – the right coaching can trigger enthusiasm and loyalty far exceeding Scandinavian standards.

cities are significant, thus a standard roll out strategy is insufficient We recommend that despite the continuously strong development and positive outlook in Eastern Europe, companies should not postpone an eventual market entry indefinitely – the window of opportunity is close to its peak in several countries.

4. EASTERN EUROPE IS NO TRASH CAN

It is a grave (and common) misunderstanding to consider Eastern Europe a market for yesterday’s news and goods no longer demanded in Western Europe. In fact, many Eastern Europeans are well aware of the latest trends and will save money and pay a premium price for the “must-have-product”.

5. SHOPPING IS A LIFESTYLE

The emergence of big shopping complexes in Eastern Europe is developing at an explosive rate – reflecting a lifestyle rooted in shopping. It is not unusual to spend an entire day in a shopping complex – shopping, eating and going to the movies with friends and family. Hence, the big shopping complexes attract a heavy traffic, even exceeding some of the best shopping streets with regards to turnover per m2. CONCLUSION ON EASTERN EUROPE

The rise of Eastern Europe promises significant potential for eager and ambitious retailers: ▪ Growing national economies and consumer buying power ▪ Necessary investments for market entries are in most cases significantly lower than in Western Europe, opting for a lower risk ▪ Consumer openness to Western European influences and increased interest in/and awareness of current trends. However, it is important to be cautious and well prepared in order to excel with a market entry: ▪ Business climates vary – not only between Eastern and Western Europe, but also within Eastern Europe, especially between EU member states and non EU member states and depending on country saturation level ▪ Consumer shopping behaviour vary ▪ Market segmentation and distribution formats vary

8


APPENDIX 1: COUNTRY EVALUATION OF RELEVANT RETAIL BUSINESS PARAMETERS Poland

Czech Rep. Slovakia

High

Ease of doing business

High

Hungary

Romania

High

High

Med

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Med

High

Level of retail skills

High

High

Med

High

Med/Low

Med

Med

Availability of retail staff

Med/Low

Med/Low

High

Med

High

High

Med

Bureaucracy

Med

Med

Med

Med

Med

Med

Med

Share of branded retail

High

High

Med

High

Med/Low

Med

Med

Presence of int. retail brands

High

High

Med/Low

High

Med/Low

Med

Med

Retail dev. speed

High

High

Med

Med

High

High

Med/High

Retail space availability

Med

Med/Low

Med

Med/Low

Med

Med

Med

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Russia

Ukraine

Croatia

Serbia

High

High

High

Low

Low/Med

Med

Med/Low

Ease of doing business Level of retail skills

Med

Med

Med

Med

Med

Med/Low

Med/Low

Availability of retail staff

Low/Med

Low/Med

Low/Med

Med/High

Med/High

Med

Med

Low

Low

Low

High

High

Med

Med

Share of branded retail

Med/High

Med

Med

Med/High

Med/High

Low

Low

Presence of int. retail brands

Med/High

Med

Med

High

Med/High

Low/Med

Low/Med

Retail dev. speed

Med

Med

Med

High

High

Med/High

Med/High

Retail space availability

Med

Med

Med

Med/Low

Med/Low

Med

Med

Bureaucracy

APPENDIX 2: COUNTRY EVALUATION OF RELEVANT RETAIL COST PARAMETERS

Poland

Czech Rep.

Slovakia Hungary Romania Bulgaria

Slovenia

Bratislava Budapest Bucharest

Sofia

Ljubljana

Warsaw

Krakow

Prague

Brno

1200

1200

1800

1200

1000

1800

1200

1400

1200

600

600

600

500

500

600

600

500

500

Country Manager

75.000

75.000

75.000

75.000

50.000

75.000

50.000

50.000

50.000

Area Manager

25.000

25.000

25.000

25.000

20.000

25.000

15.000

20.000

20.000

Shop Manager

15.000

15.000

15.000

15.000

12.000

15.000

5.000

8.000

8.000

7.500

7.500

7.500

7.500

6.000

7.500

3.500

6.000

6.000

Rent (€/year/m2) Top location Standard location Salary cost (Gross €/year)

Sales Rep.

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Russia

Riga

Vilnius

Tallinn

Moscow

1200

1200

1200

8000+

600

600

600

1200

Ukraine

Croatia

Serbia

Kiev

Zagreb

Belgrade

2400

2400

1200

1200

1000

1000

600

600

St. Petersburg

Rent (€/year/m2) Top location Standard location Salary cost (Gross €/year) Country Manager

75.000

75.000

75.000

150.000+

150.000+

100.000

50.000

50.000

Area Manager

25.000

25.000

25.000

50.000

50.000

40.000

20.000

20.000

Shop Manager

15.000

15.000

15.000

15.000

15.000

15.000

8.000

8.000

7.500

7.500

7.500

7.500

7.500

7.500

6.000

6.000

Sales Rep.

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APPENDIX 3: STUDY OF PRESENCE IN EASTERN EUROPE OF 29 COMPANIES (HERE ONLY MAJOR COMPANIES AND TOTAL SHOWN) Country

Total number of shops

Zara Bosnia

0

3

0

3

3

0

2

0

0

0

0

9

Bulgaria

0

4

0

1

2

3

3

0

1

0

1

26

Estonia

0

4

1

7

0

3

1

4

1

0

6

28

Belarus

0

2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

Croatia

0

2

1

12

8

4

8

4

0

0

0

53

Letva

0

7

3

4

3

3

1

6

1

0

8

45

Letuania

0

4

4

3

4

2

2

14

4

0

8

51

Macedonia

0

0

0

0

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

5

Moldavia

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

50

0

3

43

42

18

15

19

17

14

58

2

0

86

591

Poland Rumania

0

4

1

1

0

0

4

0

0

2

5

16

Russia

0

245

16

17

150

35

48

18

62

0

1

615

Serbia

0

3

2

2

0

1

4

1

0

0

0

18

Slovakia

2

3

1

2

0

3

3

1

1

0

7

31

Slovenia

6

2

4

2

0

4

4

3

0

0

0

36

14

6

5

9

4

6

4

0

3

0

35

117

Ukraine

0

13

0

5

0

3

5

0

14

0

1

74

Hungary

6

1

3

7

13

2

5

0

2

0

29

89

Number of shops

71

345

59

90

209

88

110

109

91

52

187

1809

Number of cities

36

183

28

53

104

43

73

53

38

30

139

951

Czech Rep.

10


DO YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE… CoCoCo is a leading management consulting company for retail and FMCG companies. We have built valuable experience through the projects we have solved together with our Nordic and Global customers (50+ projects). At CoCoCo our retail experts have deep industry knowledge as well as an ability to contribute with a strategic angle. We emphasise concrete experience with implementing best practice within operations, marketing, organisation, concept development and chain management. We have created documented and lasting business improvements and are continuously working for several recognised regional and global retail brands.

CoCoCo helps brands and retailers with issues that typically lie within:

▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪

Transactions, mergers and acquisitions Strategy and business planning Distribution and concept design Supplier relations Merchandising Operational execution

For more information on CoCoCo competencies and customer cases please visit www.cococo.dk

CONTACT THE TEAM BEHIND THIS ARTICLE DIRECTLY: Jens Høgsted +45 22 70 64 74 jens.hogsted@cococo.dk

Claus Frisenberg +45 61 61 66 41 claus.frisenberg@cococo.dk

Karl Eckerdal +45 42 12 01 10 karl.eckerdal@cococo.dk

As a consultant, Jens has worked with international retailers for more than ten years with customers from a wide range of retailers and branded goods companies. Jens has been involved in all aspects of retail operation, from strategy to operation and IT support systems.

Claus is a member of the Retail sector team at Copenhagen Consulting Company and has worked with various aspects of retail management – particular in the fashion industry. In addition Claus has worked with corporate strategy and corporate transformation in large companies in various industries.

Karl is a member of the Retail sector team at Copenhagen Consulting Company and has worked with various aspects of retail management – particular in the sports industry.

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