“DISASTER MANAGEMENT: AN ASSESSNENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLOODS ON RURUAL COMMUNITIES OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA. A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT SHANGLA”
By Mr. HUSSAIN AHMAD
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN RURAL DEVELOPMENT
SIND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES CENTRE UNIVERSITY OF SIND, JAMSHORO PAKISTAN
2012 “DISASTER MANAGEMENT: AN ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLOODS ON RURUAL COMMUNITIES OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA. A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT SHANGLA”
By Mr. HUSSAIN AHMAD Supervisor Prof. DR. PERVEZ A. PATHAN Director, Sind Development Studies Centre University of Sind, Jamshoro Pakistan
A Thesis Submitted in fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in Rural Development Enrolment No. 11002-C
SIND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES CENTRE UNIVERSITY OF SIND, JAMSHORO PAKISTAN 2
2012 FINAL APPROVAL It is certified that I have read the dissertation submitted by Mr. Hussain Ahmad entitled â€œDisaster Management: An Assesment of Socio-economic Impacts of Floods on Rural Community of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A Case Study of District Shanglaâ€? as a partial fulfillment for the award of degree of Master of Science in Rural Development. I have evaluated the dissertation and found it up to the requirement in its scope and quality for the award of degree.
Supervisor ____________________________ Prof. Dr. Pervez A. Pathan Director Sind Development Studies Centre University of Sind, Jamshoro.
Internal Examiner Prof. Dr.
External Examiner Prof. Dr.
DECLARATION I, Mr. Hussain Ahmad, hereby declare that this dissertation is my own work and has never been used in any other institution for any type of academic degree. I, moreover, declare that any secondary information used in this dissertation has been dully acknowledged.
© HUSSAIN AHMAD 2012
Dedication I dedicate this work to the memory of my Late Mother and Father
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Praise be to Allah Almighty (S.W.T.), who gave me the opportunity and courage to pursue my higher studies in this oldest institution of high repute and learning in Pakistan. First of all, I am very grateful to my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Pervez A. Pathan, Director, Sind Development Studies Centre, Jamshoro, Pakistan for offering useful advice, assistance, positive comments, and suggestions that helped me in improving this work. I would also want to thank all my teachers at the Sind Development Studies Centre, University of Sind, in whom I saw patience, love and believe in others. My other deepest appreciation goes to Mr. Ghani Somroo, Admin Officer, SDSC, Syed Sajid Shah (MPhil), Senior English Teacher and Mr. Tariq Jamal, Deputy District Officer (Finance), District Dir (L), KPK, and last not the least Mr. Muhammad Iqbal District Disaster Mangement Officer Shangla, who gave me consistent support through out this study. On my family side, I am most grateful to my beloved brothers and sisters, my wife, who always support me with their invaluable prayers, continuous encouragement and moral support. Finally, it is important to offer a sincere thanks to the people, who gave up their valuable time to participate in this study and were highly hospitable and welcoming in all the villages, I wisited. May Allah S.W.T. reward them all in this world and Hereafterâ€Ś!
Message from the District Disaster Management Officer-Shangla The floods of 2010 were unprecedented in the history of Shangla district. The coordinated relief and recovery response has managed to recreate a semblance of normalcy in the lives of the flood affected people. However, the challenge of making the future less disaster prone is still ahead of us. An increased sensitization about strengthening disaster risk management capacities at all levels is strong need of the hour. I am glade to see that Mr. Hussain Ahmad has been able to produce a valuable dissertation on â€œDisaster Management: An Assessment of the Socio-economic Impacts of Floods on rural communnties of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A Case Study of Shangla district.â€? I congratulate him for such a tangible and valuable report. It is expected that this report can be helpful in district management plans. I am confident such like research initiatives would lead towards achieving the overall objectives of making the local communities more resilient against future hazards and putting the district on the path of integrating disaster risk reduction into development plans, ensuring sustainable development.
Muhhmad Iqbal District Disaster Management Officer Shangla Disaster Disaster Mangement Authroity â€“Shangla
ABSTRACT Flooding is a natural phenomenon and the people of KPK have experienced it almost every year with vary level of severity. Over the years land degradation, deforestation and bad rural practices have further exacerbated the impact of flood disasters in Pakistan. The 2010 floods in Pakistan were one of the largest human catastrophes in recent history. They affected more than 21million people, killed 1,980 and injured 2,946. The flood path covered over 100,000 square kilometers of land, which is around 20 per cent of Pakistanâ€™s land mass, and affected 78 of Pakistanâ€™s 102 districts. The floods damaged 2.9 million houses with over 913,217 houses completely destroyed. The total direct and indirect damage caused so far is approximately US$10 billion. The total reconstruction costs are estimated to be upwards of US$8.9 billion. The damage to agriculture, fisheries and livestock is estimated to be over US$5 billion. But these statistics fail to capture the long-lasting damage the disaster has caused and the desperate needs that will continue for years to come. With 2.1 million hectares of standing crops destroyed and one million tons of food and seed stocks gone, Pakistan is yet to face the worst of its food security crisis.1 The main objective of our study is to highlight the impacts of floods on the rural communities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The case study is of the rural community living in district Shangla of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The data collected from the rural community showed the scale and magnitude of loss and destruction caused to the local people in terms of human, livestock, houses, livelihood, etc. This research focus at the issue of flooding from the experiences of ordinary people. The finding shows that some members of the rural community are resilient while others are passive and are more vulnerable to floods. The study shows that policy makers need to think about an everlasting solution to losses of future floods rather thank focusing on the weaknesses and offering adhoc emergency relief. This research seeks to bring to light the experiences of a rural community of district Shangla that has been affected by 2010 flooding in KPK province, and how its members have responded to the challenges.
Pakistan Needs Assessment. October 2010.
Page No. Acknowledgement....................................................................................................I Abstract.....................................................................................................................II List of Figures...........................................................................................................III List of Tables............................................................................................................IV Table of Contents ....................................................................................................V List of Acronyms......................................................................................................VI Disaster Terminologies ...........................................................................................VI
Chapter No. 1 Introduction 1. Introduction........................................................................................................13 1.1 Research Objectives.....................................................................................14 1.2 Research Questions......................................................................................23 1.3 Problem Statement.......................................................................................27 1.4 Significance of the Study.............................................................................27 1.5 Study Area....................................................................................................27 1.6 Scope and Limitation...................................................................................27 1.7 Methodology in Breif...................................................................................27 1.8 Thesis Structure...........................................................................................27
Chapter No. 2 Literature Review and Theoretical Framework 2. Introduction 2.1 Defining the Hazards, Disasters and Flooding..........................................27 2.2 Natural Disasters: Causes and Economic Implications............................33 2.3 Pakistan and Flooding.................................................................................33 2.4 The 2010 Flood Event..................................................................................33 2.5 Disaster Management..................................................................................35 2.6 Disaster Management Mechnism in Pakistan...........................................36 2.7 Theoretical Framework .............................................................................37 2.8 Summery of Literature Review..................................................................37
Chapter No. 3 Study Area and Methodology 3. Introduction 3.1 Study Area ..................................................................................................38 3.2 Case Study Research Design ......................................................................41 3.3 Data Collection Methods.............................................................................41 3.3.1 Semi-Structured Interviews ..............................................................48 3.3.2 Focus Group Discussions....................................................................52 3.3.3 Participant Observations.................................................................... 3.3.4 Text and Document Anaysis.............................................................. 3.4 Sampling Techniques .................................................................................. 3.5 Data Anaysis................................................................................................. 3.6 Ethical Considerations................................................................................. 3.7 Challenges in the Field.................................................................................
Chapter No. 4 Presentation and Discussion of Findings 4. Introduction 4.1 River Khan Khwar Community: Description of Landscape.........................33 4.2 The Flood of 2010 and its Socio-economic Impacts on Shangla District......3s3 4.3 Case Studies........................................................................................................54 4.4 Major Disasters in Shangla District.................................................................8 4.5 Capacity of Disaster Risk Management in Shangla District..........................11 4.6 Functions of District Disaster Management Authroity..................................11
Chapter No. 5 Conclusion and Recommendations 5.1 Conclusion..........................................................................................................148 5.2 Key Research Findings......................................................................................148 5.3 Recommendations..............................................................................................148 SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................................153 APPENDIX A: .........................................................................................................153 APPENDIX B: .........................................................................................................153 11
LIST OF ACRONYMS AAOIFI
Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions
Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality Management Capability, Earnings, Liquidity
Credit Information Bureau (of the State Bank of Pakistan)
Commission for Islamization of Economy (Pakistan)
Council of Islamic Ideology (Pakistan)
Commission for Transformation of Financial System (Pakistan)
Federal Shariat Court (of Pakistan)
House Building Finance Corporation of Pakistan
Islamic Banking Branches
Islamic Banking Division
Islamic Financial Institutions
International Institute of Islamic Economics (Islamabad)
Master Murabahah Facility Agreement
Organization of Islamic Countries
Pakistan Legal Decisions
Riba Free Certificate
Shariat Appellate Bench (of the Supreme Court of Pakistan)
State Bank of Pakistan
Shariah Supervisory Committee (of the Bank of Khyber)
DISASTER TERMINOLOGIS Hazard is a rear or extreme event in the natural or human made environment that adversely affects human life, property and activity to the extent of causing a disaster. Disaster is the serious disruption of the functioning of the society, causing wide spread human, material and environmental losses which exceeds the ability of the affected society to cope only using its own resources. Disaster are often classified according to their speed onset (sudden or slow), or according to their cause (natural or man-made). Capacities are resources, abilities and strengths, which enable communities to better cope with impacts of hazards (damage losses). Vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of a community to a hazard and the prevailing condition, including physical, socio-economic and political factors that adversely affect its ability to respond to hazards or disaster events. Disaster Risk refers to the combined susceptibility and vulnerability of the community to potential damaged caused by a particular hazard within a specified future time period. Livelihood comprises of the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with stresses and shocks and maintain and enhance its capabilities now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base. Coping means the managing of resources in difficult situations. It includes finding ways to solve problems to handle stress or to develop defense mechanisms. Coping strategies refer to a set of measures adopted by the communities for obtaining resources in time of any disaster. These are based on their experience, social structures, resources, politics and their capacities to combine them. Disaster management is a term that includes all aspects of planning for, responding to and reducing the impact of disasters. It may refer to the management of the risks (possible future impacts) and the consequences (response, recovery, etc) of disasters. Mitigation mechanisms are measures that aim at reducing the impact of a hazard by minimizing losses, damage and human suffering. Preparedness includes all measures taken before a disaster to ensure appropriate systems, procedures and resources are in place. Recovery activities aim at restoring the pre-disaster situation (permanent restoration and recovery). However, it is not a process of simply restoring what existed before the disaster. It should rather be an attempt to reduce vulnerabilities to avoid future losses.
Rehabilitation is the transition between immediate relief and long-term recovery and development. The activities aim at helping the affected population in their self-help efforts and at providing essential/critical services which have been disrupted during the disaster to the population (health, key economic sectors, communication, etc.). Hazard Assessment determines the probability of a hazard (natural and human-made). This includes descriptions of the nature and the behavior of each hazard, the society is exposed to. Risk Assessment is an assessment of how likely it is that a hazard will happen again and what losses it may cause, before deciding which risk reduction measures to implement. Risk Management is the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the task of identifying, analyzing, treating and monitoring risk. As a process, it includes analyzing the risk, estimating its potential effects, and determining its importance in the scheme of things. Vulnerability Assessment identifies all elements at risk and to what extent they might be negatively impacted by a hazard. This includes a description of unsafe conditions in a society and the reasons for these conditions. In other words, the causes that place these elements at risk must be explained. Capacity Assessment identifies peopleâ€™s capacities and coping strategies: the resources people will have available for preparedness, mitigation and response. This includes the clarification over who has access to and control over the resources. Participatory Research is defined as doing research with and for people, rather than doing research on them. It focuses on working with people to identify problems in practice, implement solutions, monitor the process of change, and assess outcomes. Systematic feedback makes it possible to evaluate the accuracy of data and to change the process over time.
(In the name of Allah, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful)
Chapter No.1 Introduction 1. Introduction The term “natural disaster” is used in reference to an event or situation that overwhelms people and local capacities to cope and even deal with them (Anderson, 2000). Some of these include floods, droughts, wild fires, pests and pestilences, epidemics, earthquakes, and hurricanes. Whilst few are attributed to natural variations, many of these are human induced. During the last decade, there has been an increase in the reports of natural disasters in Pakistan. On 8th October, 2005, a devastating earthquake occurred in Pakistan. In July 2010, excessive monsoon rains and weather conditions resulted in widespread flooding, which has affected all four provinces of Pakistan, as well as the Agencies, GilgitBaltistan and the Kashmir region. The rapid spread of floods has caused unprecedented damage to livestock, agriculture and the economy, and has precipitated a humanitarian crisis that has left over 17.5 million persons affected, according to the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan. The research seeks to analyze the impacts of 2010 floods on the rural communities of Khyber Pakhrunkhwa and how the community responded to the floods in 2010. For this purpose, case study of district Shangla is selected. 1.1 Research Objectives The main objective of this study is to carry out a socio-economic survey in flood prone areas of Shangla district. It also aims to examine the impacts of floods on the rural communities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and assess the role of Provicial Disaster Management Authroity (PDMA) in disaster management in KPK as well as to determine the community’s indeginous knowledge of floods, how they cope during the floods years, recommend through a participatory process, some environmental mitigations and adaptation strategies for future floods.
Specific Objectives 1. To identify the perceived causes of the floods and its effects on livelihood in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. 2. To know about the distruction and catastrophe in district Shangla of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 3. To collect the facts and figures of damages/death tolls due to 2010 floods in district Shangla. 4. To identify the flood management strategies of the district government. 5. To recommend some disasters risk mitigation strategies to the authorities for future floods. 1.2 Research Questions The following research questions that I seek to answer within the framework of this study in order to achieve the research objectives as mentioned above: 1. What are the main casues of persistent flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? 2. What is the range of impact cause by floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa generally and district Shangla in particular? 3. What are the mitigation and preventive responses to floods as applied by PDMA? 4. What perceptions are held by victims of floods with regard to PDMA operations in floods situations? 1.3 Problem Statement It is known to all that flood is the most common natural disasters in Pakistan. It creates an exexpected threat to human lives and properties. The floods create natural disasters which involve the loss of human lives and properties plus serious distrution to the ongoing activities of large urban and rural communities. Besides, the negative impacts of floods include damage to houses and other buildings, loss of job or income, distrution of the network of social contact, interruption to normal access to education, health and food services. Through this research, we will focus on these negative flood impacts on the rural communities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provicne.
Although several number of government and non-government organizations are involved in the floods disaster management in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provicn, still losses are increasing. In order to reduce the risk of disastes, the most essential thing is to mitigate it at the planning stage. The present situation of disaster preparedness is still doubtfull. After every big disaster, people tend to forget all about the damages and deaths. They never think for preparing for the next disasters. Therefore, a sustained strategy is needed on the part of PDMA for prepardness for the next disaster. This research anlyze the various stretigies adopted by the PDMA for the disaster management in the study area. It also studies the actions of the people to cope with the adverse affects of floods in the study area. For this purpose, Shangla district of Kyber Pakhtunkhwa is opted as a case study. Householdsâ€™ interviews using questionares was used in the primary data collection. 1.4. Significance of the Study The knowledge generated from this study can be useful information for the local district government to undertake a Flood Disaster Management Program in order to mitigate the negative impacts of flooding in the arudy area. 1.5. Study Area
There has been no respite for the people of Shangla district. This m i l i t a n t insurgency hit area, which was on way to recover from insurgency and 8th October, 2005 earthquake disaster, has been h i t by a rising r i v e r s . F l a s h f l o o d s i n l a t e J u l y, 2 0 1 0 i n t h e r i v e r s o f Shangla district cut off Kana Valley and Shapur from rest of Pakistan. Shangla district is located in Swat valley (North Latitude 34-31 to 33-08 and East Litatiide 72-33 to 73-01 with itsâ€™s headquarter at Alpurai (8 th K.M. from Shangla Top). District Shangla is a land of natural beauty, abundance of water, forest, wild life and mountain peaks. It is relatively a newly created district which was earlier part of the District Swat. In 1995 this part of District Swat was upgraded as separate administrative unit i-e District. The entire district has been bestowed upon rich natural resources and
waste biodiversity. It consists of small and narrow valleys surrounded by high mountains and thick forest. Shangla district has the lowest Human Development Index in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and second lowest in the country. It is one of the most backward districts of KPK. With the growth rate of 3%, the population of Shangla district is 512000 spread over 1586 Sq-KM area. The study area inhibits many small streams and has plenty of water resources. The district enjoys extreme weathers at its both ends where in winter season the highest parts (3440 meters above sea level) receives more than 10 feet snowfall while in summer season the mercury reaches to 40C temperature on the banks of the Indus River. It has two Tehsils and 28 union councils. The 104672 acres of total cultivated land is 31% of total area where only 2% is irrigated and the rest of the agriculture land is rain fed. Due to intensive pressure of population growth more and more fragile land is brought under agriculture through the cultivation of steep slopes and forest encroachments. As a result, there is a severe degradation of natural resources and decline of agriculture productivity. Agriculture growth in the area has been further hampered due to lack of economic and social infrastructure facilities in the area such as rural roads, marketing and storage facilities and access to basic services like health, education and safe drinking water. It is therefore becoming increasingly difficult for the remote rural population to make their livings for sustainable livelihood in the area and to realize their full economic potential to meet basic needs, avail alternate employment opportunities, increase income and raise overall living standards. Majority of the people of the District are deprived of the basic facilities of life, provision of health, education, drinking supply and roads, which are the basic needs of the area. District Government and NGOâ€™s are trying their best to play their role in the development of this district. However, they have very limited funds, which could not meet the basic needs and requirements of the flood affected peoples. Keeping in view the miserable conditions of the poor people, I decided to highlight the destruction of 2010 floods in the area in order to play my role in mitigating the negative effects of future floods and improve living standards of the remote and backward areas of district Shangla.
1.6. Scope and Limitation The scope of this research covers the pin pointing of the magnitude of the destruction of the 2010 floods in the district and indentification of the peopleâ€™s perception of floods in their area and the selection of coping mechanisms against floods. This reserahc tries to capture the real life situation of people in the study area dealing with floods and bring it to the scientific design of report. 1.7 Methodology in Breif This study uses a qualitative rsearch strategy as the methodogical approach to find aswers to the research questions raised. This choice is influenced by the research quest to see through the eyes of the people being studied and assess their local knowledge on the causes, effects and mitigation response to natural disasters in Shangla district. Both primiary and secondary sources were collected over a one month period, October 2012, from three key areas namely, Gwar Band, Kana and Besham. Semi-structured interviews, Focus Group Interview (FGDs), partciapant observations and text and document anaysis were used as qualitative tools to collect the data. 1.8. Thesis Structure
The substantive findings of this research are presented in five chapters. Chapter 1 To achieve this objective, chapter one has outlined the rationale for aim and objectives of the research, its significance, study area, scope and limitation of the study have been discussed. Chapter 2 In chapter two, definition of disasters, flooding, brief history of the flooding in Pakistan, causes and economic implications of the disasters, various disaster management techniques are pin pointed. The study critically
examines the impacts of floods on rural communities of KPK. The relevant natural disaster research literature is reviewed to develop a conceptual framework for the research. Various theoretical prospectives will be explored and the major wok on disaster management and research on flooding by Pakistan Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) will be discussed. This chapter also gives a brief history, geography, and socioeconomic characteristics of the case study area. Chapter 3 Chapter three deals with various research methods and I undertook to gather data and my own self-awareness through the entire process. It also contains a description of findings related to research participantsâ€™ experiences and their opinions on flooding issues. It gives a comprehensive analysis of the data collected in relation to theoretical frameworks. Chapter 4 Chapter four contains the presentation and discussion of the findings. Returning to the research questions, there is a brief review of findings and some reflections on further avenues of research on the impact of flooding on rural communities of KPK. Chapter 5 The last chapter is devoted to the conclusion and recommendations.
Chapter No. 2 Literature Review and Theoretical Framework This chapter discusses the related literatures used to support this research. It describes the definitions of hazard, disaster and flood. This section reviews existing literature relevent to disaster management, mitigation and prevention. It looks into the known causes of natural disasters. It also discusses the concpet and trends in flood disaster management, concept of coping mechnism, concept of public partcipation in rural flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 2. Introduction Flooding is a natural phenomenon and it occurred many times in the past in Pakistan. Duting the last decade, years of land degradation, deforestation, and poor urban and rural practices have exacerbated the impacts of flood events. Pakistan recent statistics of recent flood occurrences have shown that a substantial number of flood events occurred in recent years and considerable number of human deaths and financial losses occurred from it. Just like other parts of Pakistan, a heavy monsoon rains occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in 2010, a region already ravaged by conflict and only just recovering from the devastating earthquake of 2005. The floods that followed were of a size and scale that are difficult to imagine. Floodwaters inundated upto one-fifth of the country and affected 20 million people, destrying 1.6 million homes and leaving over 14 million people acutely vulnerable.2 2.1
Defining the Hazard, Disaster and Flooding
There are various definitions of hazards. According to Twigg, (2004), harard can be defined as potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, and/or human activity, which may causes loss of life or injury, property dagamge, social and economic distruption or environmental degradation. While disaster defines as what occurs when the impact of hazard on a section of socity (casuing death, injury, loss of property, economic lossess) overwhelms that societyâ€™s ability to cope. Cutter, (1993) argued that â€œhazard is a borader concept that incorporates the probability of an event happening, but also includes the impact of the magnitude of the event on the society and environmentâ€?. Blaikie, (1994) 2
states that hazard refer to “extreme natural events which may effect different places singly or in combination at different times over a varying return period”. They further state that hazard overlap with disaster where hazard is the potential event and disaster is the result of the hazard. Bailiki, et. al., (1994), state that “there is a disaster when significant number of people had been affected by the hazar, be it to their livelihood, lives and properties, that made them incapable of regaining or coping with losses”. According to Smith, et. al., (1998), the detailed way to defind disaster is “an event, concentrated in time and space, in which the community experience severe danger and distrption of its essential functions, accompanied by widespread human, material or environmental losses, which often exceeds the ability of the community to cope without external assistance”. These definitions of disaster have in common that the difference between the flood event (hazard) and disaster depends on the coping capacity of the community affected. It is thus clear that apparently floods in well-prepared communities with a strong social structure are less disastrous than the unprepared communities. An extreme natural event only becomes a disaster when it has an impact on human settlement and activities. (Andjelkovic, 2001). Defining a flood is rather diffcult, partly because floods are complex phenomena and partly because they are viewed differently by different people. Yevjevich, (1992), defines floods as extremely high flows or levels of rivers, whereby water inundates flood plains or trrrain outside the water-confined major river channels. The more general definition of flood was introduced by Ward, (1978) by incorporating the rarer coastel and the more common valley-bottom inundations. He dfines a flood as a body of water which rises to overflow land which is not normally submerged. 2.2
Natural Disasters: Casues and Economic Implication
Based on empirical research presented by EM-DAT 3, globally natural disasters seem to be on the ascendancy due to climate uncertainties and human induced vulnerabilities (UN\ISDR and World Bank (WB), 2003). For instance, between 1970 and 2004 natural disasters such as floods increased more than 500%. Figure : A Graph Showing the Increasing Trend of Natural Disasters Due To Climate Uncertainties and Human Induced Vulnerabilities. Included Is Flood in the Light Blue Colour.
EM-DAT is a global database on natural and technological disasters and contains core data on the occurrence and effects of more than 17,000 disasters in the world. It is currently managed by the Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). (CRED, 2004)
Source: EM-DAT(1970 - 2004). A key cause of natural disasters, like floods and droughts, is anthropogenic climate change. Climate change is caused by increased levels of Green House Gases (GHG), chief of which is CO2. Currently, there is a broad agreement within the scientific community that human activity has amplified earth’s natural greenhouse effect by the introduction of large amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere (IPCC, 1996). Carbon emissions from burning of fossil fuel, deforestation and use of inefficient technologies have contributed to dramatic changes in global temperatures which cause uncertainties and extreme weather conditions. A critical look at international conferences such as the UN’s International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN\ISDR) in 1999, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005 and the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Summit (COP-15) show that these conferences are examples of international efforts to combat the troubling costs and effects of natural disasters due to climate change. For instance, the message of the about 1600 scientists who met together at the conference “Climate Change-Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions” at Copenhagen in 2009 was that climate change will lead to frequent and extreme weather conditions and natural disasters, hence, risk reduction in disaster management needs to be given a top most priority. (Pileberg, 2009). It is interesting to note that whilst such attempts by the international community have led to many developments, such as the UN Yokohama Strategy in 1994 and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in 2005, little results have been achieved in concrete terms to solve the overwhelming cost and effect of climate change. According to the UN\ISDR (2007), the challenges that climate change presents to the international community can further be compounded by economic and political systems that fails to take pragmatic steps to solve the situation.
The international community is beset with the challenge to reduce current CO2 levels. The problem of burden sharing between some developed and developing nations has in many instances hindered attempts particularly by the United Nation to meet this challenge (UNEP, 2007). This is so, partly, because ratification of international treaties on carbon emission reduction is not compulsory and second, there exist an assumption that a decrease in CO2 could “stifle economic growth” (UNEP, 2007:66).4 However, according to Stern (2006), climate change constitutes the greatest market failure the world has ever known. It could cost the world 20% of global annual growth as the cost for inaction. As an example, in USA, the recent hurricane Sandy cost the country more than 50 US Dollars (Al-Jazerra, 2012). Worse yet, for developing countries, the cost of large scale natural disasters in the 1990‟s averaged 5% of their GDP (DFID, 2005). On the other hand, the cost of taking action would only be 1% of global GDP per year. Taking preventive action would therefore enable the world to avoid entering critical threshold of average temperature increase of 2 C higher than pre-industrial levels (Stern, 2006). Additionally, settlements along waterways are among some of the common causes of natural disasters in many third world countries. Currently, about 96% of deaths related to natural disasters in the world are from developing countries and according to Deyle (1998) in El Masari and Tipple (2002: 157), the vulnerability of developing countries is “the result of an increase in human settlement along vulnerable areas, rather than a rise in the number of geophysical events such as...floods”. Corruption and ineffective government building policies further aggravate the situation by directly or indirectly exposing people to the threats of natural disasters. In Pakistan, the most common cause of flood is settlement and building along waterways. It is to note that the foregoing discussion perceives the causes of natural disasters as “human-related” or better yet an “act of man”. However, according to some people, the causes of natural disasters are more of a divine origin or an “act of god”. They believe that disasters occur only when people were not at peace with God and not obeying the commands of Allah Almighty. Hence, disaster cannot be stopped but rather its effects minimized (UNEP, 2008). In Haiti, disasters are perceived as events that God is fully aware of; hence a mitigation strategy is to get down on ones knees and pray (Mooney, 2009). In any case, these scenarios seem to suggest that disasters are divine oriented and that mitigation is possible only when there is “repentance” in behaviour or attitude either towards one another or the environment. Currently, there exists the propensity for the poor and socially disadvantaged people in many third world countries to think of natural disasters as “acts of god” than for the rich and those in western advanced nations (Baumann and Sims, 1974 in Alexander 1995). This is because the poor may lack adequate information that helps to explain the occurrences in a different like the Early Warning System of Anticipated Floods. (WDR, 2009). The danger this perception presents is that people may think of disaster management as either impossible or a luxury for the rich. This, notwithstanding, all scientific evidences, 4
Sherry Adomah Bempah, (2011), ‘The Impact of Natural Disasters on Development. An Assessment of the Role and Functions of the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO): A Case Study of the Nawuni and Buipe Communities, Northern Region of Ghana, pp. 11-13, Available online.
as discussed earlier, proves that current natural disasters are man-made and that mitigation is possible through adequate human efforts. The economic impact of disasters usually consists of direct damage to infrastructure, lives, properties, crops, livestock and housing. For instance, climate –related hazards associated with natural disasters such as floods have caused many deaths which have increased over the past decades. There has been 24% increment in the number of people killed between 1974-1988 and 1989-2003 as shown in the table below. For windstorm, there has been over 200% increase in the proportion of people killed within the same time period. Table 2: A Table Showing How Climate-Related Hazards Affects People
Mean number of persons affected for one killed (1974- 1988) 5,997 9,503
Mean number of persons affected for one killed (1989- 2003) 21,225 11,763
Proportion of change between the two periods +225% + 24
Source: EM-DAT (1974 - 2003)5 For indirect damage, mention can be made of unemployment, market destabilization, and post disaster trauma. Globally, about 200 million people were affected by natural disasters in 1990s with about USD 63 Billion lost in terms of market value of damage properties (World Disaster Report, 2002). Agriculture, the backbone of many developing countries, is usually severally impacted as employment opportunities to this sector greatly reduced. A decline in employment opportunities means a fall in a family’s budget support system and survival needs.6 2.3
Pakistan and Flooding
Since its creation, Pakistan has faced severe floods in 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992 and in 2010. Floods of various magnitudes occurred during the past perioid. Pakistan is exposed to different types of hazards. Northern Pakistan and AJ&K are vulnerable to earthquakes, avalanches, landslides, floods, and drought, etc. The arid, semi-arid and plain areas are exposed to floods, flash floods, drought, pest attacks, and river erosion, etc. The coastal areas of Pakistan are exposed to cyclones, storm surges, and hydrological drought, while some parts of the coastal area in Sind receive river floods as well. Most of the country’s big cities are vulnerable to floods due to heavy rains. Fires and earthquakes are looming threats. These hazards pose serious dangers, judged by the fact that 6,073 people were killed and 8,989,631 affected in the period between 1993 and 2002 (World Disaster Report 2003, IFRC Geneva).This figure was outnumbered when a 7.6 Richter scale earthquake struck in 2005, killing more than 73,000 people and seriously affecting over 3.5 million in northern Pakistan. In addition, 5 6
http://www.emdat.be/Database/Trends/GlobalDisasters/globaldis_trend_03.html Supra Sherry Adomah Bempah Note, p. 15.
manmade disasters traumatize society, economy, and environment. These include industrial accidents, urban fires, oil spills, nuclear and radiological mishaps and civil and communal conflicts.7 In the context of Pakistan, floods, cyclones, drought and transport accidents and incidents of terrorism are priority hazards in terms of frequency and their impact upon human lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Climate change leads to an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological hazards while earthquakes have a comparatively longer cycle, yet they have a huge impact on human lives, infrastructure, housing, livelihoods, etc. Therefore, earthquakes are considered one of the most lethal hazards. Pakistan is highly exposed to floods, which occur on a regular basis in the country. The floods occur as a consequence of the summer weather system, which develops in the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon months of Julyâ€“September. Depressions originate from the Bay of Bengal and passing over lower central India, enter Pakistan and then move south north toward Kashmir. The mountains in the extreme north of Pakistan provide a perennial source of inflow to the rivers and deliver significant precipitation along the lower Himalayas in the catchments area of River Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, and rarely to the Indus, which flows through the Karakoram ranges into Pakistan. Floods normally occur in July to September when the precipitation water input is augmented by snowmelt. Floods particularly hit Punjab and Sindh but flash floods hit KPK, Sindh and Balochistan and the northern federally administrated areas. Riverine floods impact human lives, infrastructure, crops, livestock, housing and other livelihoods of local communities. Because of the water intensity and velocity, flash floods have a much more devastating impact on human life, housing, infrastructure, crops, livestock and other related livelihoods. Flash floods occur in the KPK, southern parts of Punjab, central and northern parts of Sindh and some parts of Balochistan. The following districts are vulnerable to floods and flash floods:-8 Names of Districts Bolan, Jhal Magsi, Kech, Khuzdar, Lasbella and Naseerabad Charsada, Dera Ismail Khan, Nowshehra and Peshawar Badin, Dadu, Karachi, Kambar, Shahdadkot, Naushehro Feroz, Sanghar, Thatta and Jamshoro Dera Ghazi Khan, Gujrat, Jhang, Bhakkar, Kasur, Lahore, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur and Sialkot Bagh and Bhimber Diamer FATA
Name of Province Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Sindh Punjab AJK Gilget-Baltistan
Flood History in Pakistan (Government Statistics) 7
National Disaster Management Authroity, â€˜National Disaster Response Plan, March 2010, p. 7. Availeble online at www.ndma.gov.pk. Last visited on August, 2012. 8 Ibid, pp. 8-9.
Value of Property Damaged (Rs. in Million)
Unadjusted 1950 199.80 1956 155.50 1957 152.50 1973 5137.00 1976 5880.00 1978 4478.00 1988 6878.00 1992 34751.00 1995 6125.00 2001 45.00 Total 64,207.8
Adjusted 11282.00 7356.00 6958.00 118684.00 80504.00 51489.00 25630.00 69580.00 8698.00 450.00 380631.00
2190 160 83 474 425 393 508 1008 591 219 6,051
10000 11609 4498 9719 18390 9199 1000 13208 6852 50 84525
The 2010 Pakistani Flood Event
The 2010 floods that hit Pakistan were indeed unprecedented and affected all over the country. Heavy torrential rains and flash floods in July-August 2010 severely hit human lives, livestock, infrastructure, crops, and livelihoods all over the country. By November 2010, the Government of Pakistan assessed that more than 20 million Pakistanis were affected, approximately 1.88 million houses damaged, 1,767 persons killed or missing, and 2,865 persons injured (GOP, 2010). The worst affected sector by the floods is agriculture (including crop and livestock sub-sectors), followed by the housing sector. Damages to infrastructure such as roads and canals were also serious.9 The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stands as the worst affected province, keeping in view the magnitude of human casualties, displacement, and damages to other infrastructure. The main reason for this was the fact that the province was directly showered by the rains and no flood warning was issued in most part of the province. Furthermore, floods with 15 to 25 feet intensity hit most parts of the province during the night time, making it difficult for residents to cope with the disaster.10 In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, crops on 121.4 thousand hectares of land were destroyed in this province alone and irrigation channels were seriously damaged, which threatened the future growth of the crop sector. According to an alternative estimate by an NGO, approximately 1.5 million people were displaced and 156,934 houses were fully or partly 9
Takashi Kurosaki, Humayun Khan, Mir Kalan Shah, and Muhammad Tahir , ‘Natural Disasters, Relief Aid, and Household Vulnerability in Pakistan: Evidence from a Pilot Survey in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’, (August 2011), p. 3. Available online at http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/primced/e-index.html. Last visited on August, 2012. 10 Ibid.
destroyed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (PRDS, 2010). The floods affected all areas in the province, including large cities like Peshawar City but the main damages occurred in rural areas. The flood intensity differed from district to district. Ten districts were designated as the worst hit, while 9 were designated as “medium” and 5 as “least” in the extent of damages, assessed by the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA). PDMA statistics also reveal that more than 3.8 million people in the province were affected by the floods to a varying extent. Approximately 180,000 houses were completely damaged and another 40,000 partially damaged. Standing crops on 466,626 acres were destroyed, whereas more than 10,000 heads of livestock were reported to be killed or drained by the flood water. Looking at the damages to infrastructure, approximately 2,000 km of major and link roads, 40 major bridges, and 40 minor bridges were destroyed, whereas about 700 educational, 150 health units, and 158 public buildings were damaged.11 2.5
The number of global disasters over the past five years has already exceeded the number of disasters that have occurred over the entire decade of the 1990s (fig. 1.1).5 An upward trend has also become apparent in the number of people affected by disasters globally, with over 200 million people affected each year since 1994 (fig. 1.2).67 Because of the escalating risk posed by natural disasters, there is an urgent need for new strategies to further improve disaster risk reduction (DRR). In recent years there has been a shift in the approach to DRR, with an introduction of the vulnerability approach, a focus on predisaster activities and an inclusion of the affected community in the process with Community-based Disaster Management (CBDM).
Reprinted from EM-DAT Emergency Events Database, Natural Disaster Trends: Number of People Reported Affected by Natural Disaster. 1900-2006.12 Disaster management is a general term that incorporates all actions related to disasters. The United Nations (UN) defines the term as â€œthe body of policy and administrative decisions and operational activities which pertain to the various stages of a disaster at all levels.â€?13 Within disaster management, there are four different stages that relate to either pre- or post- disaster activities. The duration of each stage can vary, and two or more stages can occur at once.14 The four stages include: I.
mitigation, which reduces the likelihood of a disaster occurring in the first place and, thus, its impact on a society;
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Natural Disaster Trends: Natural Disasters Reported, (Brussels, Belgium: Universite Catholique de Louvain, 2007). Graph at http://www.em dat.net/disasters/img/Total%20number%20of%20people%20reported%20affected%20by%20disasters %201900-2006.pdf 13 UN, Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management (Geneva: UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs, 1992). 14 Coppola, Introduction to International Disaster Management, 8.
II. III. IV.
preparedness, which provides people with the information and tools necessary to respond to disasters in a way which minimizes loss and maximizes chance of survival; response, including relief, which works to reduce the impact of past or current disasters in order to prevent further suffering or loss; and Recovery, which returns societies back to how they were before the event occurred.15
According to Carter, (1991), the concept of disaster management should be regarded as an important tool in successfully coping with all impacts casued by disaster. He emphasized that only a comprehensive approach which covers all aspects of disaster management cycle, including an appropriate balance of prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and disaster-related development can be effective. He goes on to say that in order to define a disaster management policy, it is necessary to consider certain main factors or pillars, such as: an accurate definition of the disaster threat, identification to the effects assessment of the resources available to deal with the threat, the organizational arrangements which are required to prepare for, respond to and recovery from disaster events, and any other specific factors which may be applicable, especially those aspects which are concerned with the development and protection of environment. It is a fact that floods can not be prevented but planning the emergency meansures through flood management can often reduce their disaster consequences. (Andjelkovic, 2001). Inception of flood management normally begins after a major disaster happens. Throughout history, progress in water related disciplines often came as a reaction to severe emergency situation, water supply systems were extended after major droughts, strom water drainage systems built after major floods and so on. Flood management is a broad spectrum of water resources activities aimed at reducing potential harmful impacts of floods on people, environment and economy of the region.16 Management for flood disaster has been understood as a complex and need to be handle carefully by involving as many parties as well as the community who has the direct impact of the flood. The main purpose of development of flood disaster management is to build and increase awareness of all stakholders, including local community in order to redcue/minimize flood impact. The flood hazard disaster management mainly covers mitigation, preparedness and prevention. (Twigg, 2004). According to him, mitigation which is defined as any action taken to minimize the extent of a disaster or potential disaster, can take place before, during or after a disaster, but the term is most often used to refer to actions against potential disasters. Mitigation measures are both physical or structural (such as flood defence or strengtheining buildings) and non-structural (such as training in disaster management, regulating land use and public education). Preparedeness is defined as specific measures taken before disaster strikes, usually to forecast or warn against them, take precautions when they threaten and arrange for appropriate response (such as organizing evacuation and stockpiling flood supplies.
Ibid. Anggraini Dewi, (2007), â€˜Community-based analysis of coping with urban flooding: a case study in Semarang, Indoensia, p. 13. Availeble online. 16
Prevention is defined as activities to ensure that the adverse impact of hazards and related disaster is avoided. 17 2.6
Disaster Management Mechnism in Pakistan
The disaster risk management approach is relatively new in Pakistan. The practice was to respond to the hazards instead of managing it. Due to the repeated hazards, Pakistan gradually adopted the strategy of disaster management and focuses on disaster preparedness and risk management approach. Pakistan had a disaster-response strategy predominantly centered on "Emergency Response Paradigm". The post-2005 earthquake promulgation of the National Disaster Management Ordinance 2006 and the National Disaster Risk Management Framework are reflective of the initial steps by the country to move towards a pre-emptive and pro-active approach towards disaster management. Under the Ordinance, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is now the lead agency at federal level for dealing with disasters. The National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) has been established as the policy-making institution on DRM, while NDMA serves as its executive arm. NDMC functions under the leadership of the Prime Minister as a multi-sectoral platform encompassing all relevant stakeholders in the public, as well as the private, sector and civil society. There are also the Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs)3 and District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs). PDMAs have been established in Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, KP, as well as Gilgit-Baltistan, but establishment of the District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) could not be completed. DDMAs have been notified in some districts but have limited capacity. 18 The Federal Flood Commission (FFC) is the main agency responsible for flood control in the country. The agency is mandated to ensure coordination and management of floods and flood protection works in an integrated manner. FFC is also responsible for formulating a National Flood Protection Plan including structural and non-structural elements and ensuring its implementation through the provinces. However, WAPDA and PMD also have important roles to play in terms of flood management in the country including flood forecasting and early warning.19 2.7
This section discusses the most important theoretical findings in relation to some assumptions and issues raised in this study. First, it is theorized that perception influences behaviour and attitudes and local perception about the causes of floods will perhaps explain local attitudes towards disaster preparedness and prevention. Within international and national literature, the known causes of floods are climate change, deforestation, throwing of refuse in water bodies, building along water ways and short term disaster response strategies. This known causes will be used to identify local understanding and perception about the causes of flood in my case study area.
Ibid. ADB, Pakistan Floods 2010: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment, pp. 54-55. 19 Ibid. 18
The effects of natural disaster on livelihood are linked to loss of lives, properties and displacement. Loss of lives will be determined by the total number of deaths as related by flood victims and as recorded by PDMA in 2010, loss of properties will be determined by total hectares of productive farms and livestock lost in 2010 and displacement will be measured by the total number of houses rendered uninhabitable by the flood of 2010. Displacement will also be measured by the total number of people rendered homeless by the floods of 2010. In the particular case of Shangla communities, this will be examined individually and communally through interviews and available official data. PDMA will be evaluated to identify the extent to which communities are involved in the five phases of disaster management namely prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Long-term preventive responses to natural disaster are considered as more sustainable than short term relief packages. Such preventive measures were discussed in the literature review as the development of the institutional and human resource capacities, early warning signals, availability of technical expertise, citizen education on disaster prevention and enforcement of building polices and forestation. NDMA/PDMA will therefore be examined to ascertain the extent to which it meets these indicators. 2.8
Summary of Literature Review
From the reviewed literature, numerous citied studies, articles and peer reviewed journals, it is quite clear that natural disasters are really issues of public concern. The literature identified among many other things, the causes, effects, vulnerability, mitigation and preventive responses to natural disasters such as floods. This study will be of relevance to national discourse on disaster management and rehabilitation of the affectees as findings on the socio-economic impacts of floods in the case study area, will help reinforce what is already known or yet to be known. The identified impact of flood disasters on the livelihood of the people is necessary to formulate pragmatic policies to help the most vulnerable and socially disadvantaged individuals to adapt to the situation. This is because they are at the centre of discourses on sustainable development. Doing this will not only require adaptation but also long term mitigation and preventive responses to flood. This means a seasonal and ad hoc response to flood management may not be an adequate preventive measure. Local participation in disaster management is an acclaim strategy in current development discourse. NDMA/PDMAâ€™s performance in this regard will help determine the extent to which the country is well prepared for natural disasters.
Chapter No. 3 STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY This chapter discusses about the general overview of the study area and the methodology and process used for this research. Discussion section about the study area starts with the general information of the study area, geography and administration, climate and topography and population. The process of this research divides into three sections that are data preparation, data collection and data processing and analysis. This chapter also presents the strategies, methods and techniques used in the collection and analysis of the data from the field of study. The choice of research design is also discussed together with the challenges encountered during the field work. 3.
The research was conducted on the community situated in the proximity of Khan Khwar, which includes Kana valley, Alpurai valley of district Shangla in KPK province in Pakistan. This chapter discusses the various methods used in obtaining the information to guide this study and outlines the issues experienced when utilizing these different methods. It is also a reflection upon my own position as a researcher and the various constraints experienced while undertaking this research. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were used as my main methods of acquiring data as qualitative rather than quantitative information was required and both of these methods were informal and conversational, allowing for open-ended responses. The participants include villagers, people who live or work in the area, local elders, the Union Council Nazims and local school teachers. The research focused on the communityâ€™s experience of flooding and the impacts it has had on their lifestyles and livelihoods. The key research questions focused on various factors that caused some communities in KPK to be vulnerable to floods, using district Shangla as a case study. I generally only interviewed people who had lived or worked in this low lying area near the Khan Khwar River and those who had experienced various floods throughout their lives while living or working in the area. The qualitative nature of my interviews did not allow me to randomly select my research participants. I selected the participants from those I met while walking along the bank of Khan Khwar River. 3.1
Shangla District is located in Swat Valley (North Latitude 34-31 to 33-08 and East Longitude 72-33 to 73-01) with itâ€™s headquarter at Alpurai (8 km from Shangla Top). District Shangla is a land of natural beauty, abundance of water, forest, wild life and mountain peaks. It is relatively a newly created district which was earlier part of the District Swat. In 1995 this part of District Swat was upgraded as separate administrative unit i.e. District. The entire district has been bestowed upon rich natural resources and waste biodiversity. It consists of small and narrow valleys surrounded by high mountains and thick forest. The district enjoys extreme weathers at its both ends where in winter season the highest parts (3440 meters above sea level) receives more than 10 feet snowfall while in summer season the mercury reaches to 40C temperature on the banks of
the Indus River. Pashtoo is spoken by most of the population. Shangla has the lowest Human Development Index in the province of KPK and second lowest in the country. It is one of the most backward districts of KPK. With the growth rate of 3%, the population of Shangla is 512000 spread over 1586 Sq-Km area. It has two Tehsils and 28 union councils. The 104672 acres of total cultivated land is 31% of total area where only 2% is irrigated and the rest of the agriculture land is rain fed. Due to intensive pressure of population growth more and more fragile land is brought under agriculture through the cultivation of steep slopes and forest encroachments. As a result, there is a severe degradation of natural resources and decline of agriculture productivity. Agriculture growth in the area has been further hampered due to lack of economic and social infrastructure facilities in the area such as rural roads, marketing and storage facilities and access to basic services like health, education and safe drinking water. It is therefore becoming increasingly difficult for the remote rural population to make their livings for sustainable livelihood in the area and to realize their full economic potential to meet basic needs, avail alternate employment opportunities, increase income and raise overall living standards. #
Highest Point Soil Mining
Details The District lies from 34o-31/ to 33o-08/ North Latitude and 72o-33/ to 73o-01/ East Longitude The district is bounded on the east by District Batagram and Tribal Area of Kala Dhaka along which the river Indus flows for about 75Kms, on the west by district Swat, on the South by District Buneer and tribal area of Kala Dhaka and on the North by District Kohistan. Total area of the District is 1586 Sq-Km (339614 Acres). i. Cultivated Area = 104672 Acres (31%) a. Irrigated = 7599 Acres (2%) b. Non Irrigated = 97073 Acres (29%) ii. Un-Cultivated area = 234942 Acres (69%) a. Forest = 109685 Acres (32%) b. Others = 125257 Acres (37%) The topography of Shangla district is dominated by high mountains and narrow valleys. These mountains are the western extremities of the great Himalaya range. The general elevation of the district is 2000 to 3000 meters above sea level. The highest point is near Kuz Ganshal in the north of the district which is 3440 meters above sea level. The soils are very deep silt-loam. District Shangla is full of natural resources, having a vast scope for investment and development. The soap stone, chromites, Marbal, Emerald deposits and many other precious and semi precious stones and mines are found in this area.
Flora Fauna Climate Races and Tribes Population Annual Average Growth Rate Population Density Household Size Tehsils Union Councils Total Household Total No. of Villages Total No. of Patwar Circles Health facilities Education Facilities Colleges Employment
A number of medicinal plants of economic importance are found in the area. Some of these are Tarkha, Unab, Banafsha, Mushkibala, White Rose, Mint etc. The area has a variety of Fauna like Markhur, Brown Bear, Leopard, Snow leopard, Wolf, Monkeys, Pigeon, Dove, Chakor, Snakes etc. In district Shangla the winter season remain extremely cold in the upper half of the district while in the lower half it remains moderate. Most of the inhabitants are Afghani. The major tribes in the area are Afghan, Gujar/Ajar, Syed, Mian etc. 434563 (according to population census of 1998) which is 2.5% of the total population of the NWFP. Current population is 512000. 3.27% 274 Persons Per Sq-Km Average household size is 8 persons per family. 02 Tehsils (Alpuri & Puran) Total of 28 Union Councils out of which 19U/Cs are situated in Tehsil Alpuri and 09 in Tehsil Puran. 53529 111 44 01 THQ, 04 Civil Hospitals, 15 BHUS and 11 Dispensaries 05 GHSS, 25 GHS, 02 GGHS, 35 GMS, 09 GGMS, 349 GPS, 161 GGPS and 62 GMPS. GDC Alpuri, GDC Puran and GDC Chakesar Most of the workforce of the district is employed in coal, mines throughout the country.
SUB-TEHSIL WISE POPULATION OF DISTRICT SHANGLA Population Tehsil Area Total Male Female
83523 663 Sq-Km
28015 184 Sq-Km
32018 227 Sq-Km
28332 215 Sq-Km
38927 297 Sq-Km
210815 1586 Sq-Km
TEHSIL WISE POPULATION OF DISTRICT SHANGLA Population Male
143556 1074 Sq-Km
67259 512 Sq-Km
210815 1586 Sq-Km
UNION COUNCIL WISE POPULATION OF DISTRICT SHANGLA Population Total No. of House Union Council Hold Total Male Female
Martung Khass Kamach Nusrat Khel
Case Study Rsearch Design
This study used a qualitative research strategy to find answers to the research questions raised. This choice was influenced by the researcher’s quest to “see through the eyes of the people being studied” and access their local knowledge on the causes, effects, vulnerability and mitigation response to natural disasters in Ghana (Bryman 2008:285). A case study is particularly good for examining the “why” “how” and “what” questions which are particularly typical of this study (Yin, 2003). Case studies offer an opportunity to understand the attitudes, behaviour and experiences of the people within their local setting. Merriam (1988) sees case study as being essentially qualitative, but others such as Yin (2003) support the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods in a case research study if these will enhance it. I choose district Shangla as my research field site because I am familiar with the area and experienced the flooding situation in 2010 first hand. I chose this district as field site as it is relevant to my research on factors that cause some communities to be vulnerable to floods. The area experiences flooding many times in the past; the differences lie in the severity and length of time the flood will last. The community is not too large and is ideal for data collection for Master’s Thesis research where time is restricted. I wanted to do research in my own home district and in a familiar place so that I could give back to the community and not just take information from the people. I was fortunate that the community’s experience of flooding was still fresh in their minds as it had been affected badly by devastating floods in 2010 and many more floods prior to that. Much of the evidence of flood damage was still present and available for me to observe. I hope that
this research may produce additional questions which may fuel further research in this area. 3.3
Data Collection Methods
Semi Structure Interviews
The semi-structured interviews were used to gather primary data or personal stories or experiences of the community affected by flood(s). The topic to be explored is people’s vulnerabilities and their coping capacities in relation to flood disasters, especially members of the communities living or working near the Khan Khwar River. Semi structured interviews were used for flood victims, PDMA officials and migrants from the study area. According to Bryman (2008: 436) “interview is probably the most widely used method in qualitative research”. Additionally, semi-structured interviews were mostly flexible and this gave “the interviewee a great deal of leeway in how to reply” (Bryman, 2008, 438)s. The interviews gathered specific and in-depth information about the community’s history and its exposure to flood events as well as vulnerability to flood disasters. More importantly, the researcher had the opportunity to pick up and probe further on things said by the interviewees and which were of relevance to the study. Interview allows participants to raise issues that the researcher may not have anticipated and the material generated is rich, detailed and multi-layered. This approach relies on words and meanings rather the statistics. Eighty (45) respondents voluntarily responded to an interview guide that was made up of both open and close ended questions. Thrity (30) of these were flood victims, four (4) were officials from NADMO, four (4) were from relief agencies, four (4) local community chiefs, a lawyer, District Human Reource Development Officer, and the District Disaster Management Officer of Shangla district. 3.3.2
Focus Group Dicussion
I also used Focus Group Discussion (FGD) as another method of collecting data for my research. FGD was used to identify the perception, attitudes and experiences of the flood victims with regard to the causes and the socio-economic impacts of floods on their lives. The purpose of the Focus Group Discussion was to interact within groups and identify the joint construction of meaning made by the flood victims in reference to the concepts under investigation. The one-on-one interview was not suitable for some circumstances especially when the participants felt awkward or nervous. Hence I arranged participants into small groups of two to four people. There are various challenges to the researcher when using focus groups as a method for data collection. The challenges include the logistics of accessing participants, group dynamics, balance between encouraging spontaneity and adhering to the research project and the difficulty of ensuring confidentiality (Barbour & Schostak, 2005). The focus group arrangement worked out extremely well as those who have similar backgrounds and characteristics chose to be in the same focus groups. The atmosphere of the focus group meetings was more relaxed and conversational as the participants knew each other very well.
The group dynamics also had some impacts on how the participants contributed to the discussion but from my observations no one in any of the focus groups were reluctant to contribute as they knew each other so well and felt some kind of comfort of having someone from the “same side” present during the interview. The power relations between the researcher and the interviewees shifted during the focus group meeting and having more numbers on the participants’ side seemed to ease the nervousness of the participants. 3.3.3
Participant observation or ethnography is an important data collection technique used in most qualitative studies. It draws a close relationship between the researcher and the subjects under investigation. According to Bryman (2008: 402), the participant observer or ethnographer, “immerses him or herself in a group for an extended period of time, observing behaviour, listening to what is said in conversations both between others and with the fieldworkers and asking questions”. In this study, the researcher assumed the role of an “observer-as-participant” in which he was mainly an interviewer (Bryman, 2008: 410). There was some observation but very little of it involved participation. This role was very useful in having a firsthand impression of the damage done to houses, livestock and farms due to floods. For PDMA, it was used to find their long term mitigation projects in the selected communities. 3.3.4
Text and Document Analysis
Text and document analysis was a secondary source of data meant to complement primary data gathered through FGDs, semi-structured interviews and participant observation. This was used basically in the literature review and helped to form the theoretical background of the study. This was also particularly helpful in finding, quantitatively; the total number of people rendered homeless by floods in the study areas. Also, text and document analysis helped explain the relief, mitigation and preventive efforts of other relief agencies involved in disaster management in the study areas. 3.4
Sampling is a process of selection of members from given population. The main logic in sampling process, according to some expert is that some time the research population is large and difficult to contact and interview each member of the population. Further, it requires time to be spent and resources to be made available in order to avoid a problem of time and resources. The sampling method is recommended, because, some members are selected from the large population and these represent all the characteristics which are held by the population. For most qualitative studies, purposive sampling technique is used in which subjects are selected based on their relationship with the research question (Bryman, 2008). This study was no exception in this regard. Purposive sampling technique was used to sample some staff of PDMA and flood victims. An initial contact with some staff of PDMA also led to contact with other individuals whose views and opinions were of interest to the study. This latter technique is called Snow ball sampling.
According to this procedure, this type of sampling, the required information is collected by identifying the subject concerned. When identification of the subject is completed and information is collected, thus the same person is requested to tell other people, having similar characteristics that they may provide what is needed. The same process is continued up till the completion of data collection process. According to Bryman (2008: 185) there is a much better “fit” between snowball sampling and qualitative research strategy because it generates a non-probability and non- representative sample of the general population under perspective. Snow ball sampling is particularly a convenient sampling method when “no one knows the nature of the universe from which the sample would be drawn” (Becker 1963: 46). The flood victims from Kana Valley were sampled using snow ball sampling technique. The contact information of flood victims who have left home were taken and subsequently contacted for further information on this subject. Sampling frame This is a summary list of the respondents who were engaged in discussion during the field work. I. II. III. IV. V. 3.5
PDMA officials Red Crescent Society of Pakistan Local Community Chief (from Kana Valley) The District Disaster Management Officer Flood Victims. Data Analysis
Many qualitative studies are said to generate theories that explains a particular social phenomenon. This is the Inductive Approach. Quantitative studies, on the other hand, are said to test theories which is called the Deductive Approach (Bryman, 2008). However, current studies indicate that there exists possibility for contemporary qualitative studies to test rather than to deduce theories (Bryman, 2008). According to Silverman (1993:24), a depiction of qualitative research strategy as one which only produces theory is “out of tune with the greater sophistication of contemporary field research design …born out of greater concern with issues of reliability and validity”. Therefore the data analysis of this study explains social happenings in the light of the theories raised in the literature review and theoretical framework of findings. Bryman (2008) proposes two steps in data processing and analysis. They are indexing or coding the data and reflecting and interpreting the data. A similar but more detailed approach for analyzing qualitative data is provided by Bond (2006). He proposes three iterative stages namely; data description, classification and connection. Description simply involves the portrayal of data in the form that can be analyzed, usually in a raw textual format (Bond, 2006). In order to do this, interviews were transcribed verbatim into English. In addition, observational notes were written in the form of a research diary. Classification entails “sifting and sorting” data into meaningful set (Bond, 2006:43). The researcher developed a coding system for the data. The use of
coding helped to classify or organize data into thematic labels that helped me appreciate the relationship among concepts under consideration (Bryman, 2008). Connection “involves analyzing the interconnections between different types of data” (Bond, 2006:43). By contemplating on what was revealed in the data, a plausible set of explanations and meanings were made. The transcribing of interviews for my analysis was a massive undertaking. I spent weeks organizing my hand written notes of the interviews into some sort of classification of topics ready for translation. My brother-in-law assist me in note taking during the interviews and focus groups, which gave me a chance to make some detailed notes or explanations on some incidents or specific words or phrases while they were still fresh in my mind. 3.6
Ethical principles, from a common sense definition of the term, are norms of conducts that distinguish between acceptable and unacceptable behaviour. The “acceptable behaviour” is the written or unwritten standards that govern any discipline or working profession. Social research, both as a discipline and as a working profession, has its own distinguished standards of behaviour that governs its conduct. These standards include harm to participants, confidentiality, anonymity, voluntary participation and informed consent (Bryman, 2008). A consideration of these ethical issues in this social research work is important because it ensures the integrity of the researcher and the quality of the data collected. For this fact, the Economic and Social Research Committee (ESRC) Research Ethics Framework states that social research must be “designed, reviewed and undertaken in a way that ensures its integrity and quality”. The criteria for assessing the quality and integrity of qualitative research studies must include “evidence of consideration of ethical issues” and this is what this study have tried to do in this section (Spencer et al, 2003 in Bryman 2008: 125). A key ethical issue that this study was beset with (and which the researcher anticipated) was the possibility of an emotional harm to the participants. The British Sociological Association (BSA) Statement of Ethical Practice requires researchers to “anticipate, and to guard against, consequences for research participants which can be predicted to be harmful and to consider the possibility that research experience may be a disturbing one”. Some of the questions asked from the interview guide were rather sensitive, personal and elicited an emotional response. Typical of this was “Did anyone die in the family due to the flood situation”, “Did the flood render your house uninhabitable” and “How did the flood affect your personal belonging”. Some of the flood victims answered these questions almost in tears as they re-countered how the floods have affected their livelihood. In order to manage this issue, the researcher gave the needed counseling or discontinued the discussion. The second ethical dilemma that confronted this study was voluntary participation based on adequate information supplied by the researcher and an understanding of the ethical issues by the prospective respondent. The Social Research Association (SRA) states that “Sociologists have a responsibility to duly inform their subject of their entitlement to refuse at any stage for whatever reason and to withdraw data supplied” (Bryman 2008:
121). In other words, the participation of potential subjects in any given study is strictly voluntary and their refusal to participate must not affect them in anyway. Accordingly, an informed consent form, which explained the objectives, the research intervention and voluntarism among others, was drafted by the researcher and given to participants. The informed consent form was also thoroughly read to those who could not read and in some instances. Each of the prospective participants was to either sign or thumbprint the document, which indicated that their participation was informed and voluntary. However, in many instances, verbal consent was rather granted by most of the respondents. The key ethical issue herein is that most of the flood victims agreed to participate in this study without really understanding the ethical issues involved or the information given by the researcher. For some, their participation was motivated by the fact that they saw a neighbour, friend or relative being interviewed. Others were also willing to be interviewed because they thought it was a government or an agencyâ€™s registration exercise to bring them relief items. The latter was very predominate because many of the rural folks perceive themselves as poor people, sidelined developmentally and whose unfortunate circumstances have been further worsened by the flood situation. Many of the respondents perceived that any association with the researcher would lead to returns in terms of reconstruction of their collapsed structures and other privileges. By implication, most of the local people did not really understand the purpose of my study or my role as a researcher. They (i.e. the local people) had their own expectations which the researcher really had little or no capacity to fulfill. This latter ethical issue led to yet another ethical dilemma that challenged this field work; deception and uneven distribution of research benefits between the researcher and the researched. To recall, the expectations of the respondents were that which the researcher is unable to fulfill and can be counted as deception on the part of the researcher by the respondents (even though the researcher explained from the onset that this study does not promise gifts in return for the information given). Similarly, the benefits of a research work to the researcher can be easily calculated. In my case, when successfully completed, I would be awarded a MSc. in Rural Development from University of Sindh. However, whether or not the government or the international community would respond to the findings of this report and help the flood victims is an uncertain hope. This means that the benefits of this research work to the flood victims either in the short or long-run cannot easily be calculated. This is an ethical issue because research benefits must be shared equally with the people to whom the information belongs. Although, the local people are partners in the development of this report, the benefit thereof becomes asymmetrical. The final ethical issue that this research work had to manage was the confidentiality and anonymity of the research respondents. A concern over ethical principles on privacy and confidentiality was necessitated by the fact that ethical challenges arises more in qualitative studies such as this than in quantitative research. This is because in quantitative studies it is relatively easy to make records anonymous and to report findings in ways that may not allow the respondents to be identified. Whilst in qualitative studies, interview transcripts and voice recordings makes it relatively easier to identify the respondents and the places from which they speak. The BSA maintains the need to respect the privacy of respondents by keeping as confidential and anonymous information given by respondents irrespective of the methodological approach used by a researcher. In accordance with this, interviews in this
research work were identified by codes and not by the personal names of the respondents. However, in this field report, consciously or unconsciously, it may be easy for one to identify some of the respondents and the places from which they speak. This is in breach of the ethical principle on confidentiality and anonymity of respondents. 3.7
Challenges in the Field
The challenges encountered in the field are organized around the following key areas in which both primary and secondary sources of data were collected. Some respondents exaggerated the problems they were going through due to the floods. Perhaps, they mistook the researcher as a relief agent who is assessing damage and subsequent release of relief items. Furthermore, the researcher, occasionally, received calls from individuals requesting for assistance. In order to help solve the problem of misrepresentation of the researcher, time was taken to explain to the flood victims that the researcher was just a student and had no contact with any humanitarian aid organization. In order to win the trust and confidence of the District Disaster officials, the researcher reminded them that the study was for academic purposes only. Budgetary constraints arose in that data was collected in areas which required much investment in transportation, time and accommodation. For this reason, some of the study areas (i.e. Puran Valley, Chakesar valley and Besham) were abandoned in order to make room for budgetary allocation.
Chapter No.4 Presentation and Dicussions of Findings This chapter provides background information on the Khan Khwar Community. The main purpose of this chapter is to present and discuss findings from the fieldwork. It focuses on two elements: the communityâ€™s response to flooding and the government response to flooding and provincial flood management. 4.
The main purpose of this chapter is to present and discuss findings from the fieldwork. The discussion of the research findings is done in the light of the literature review presented on disaster management and its inter-related issues. These findings are based on what was gathered from the forty five (45) interviewees of which include flood victims, key informants, lawyer, officials from relief agencies (Local NGOs and Red Crescent Society of Shangla), PDMA, community chief and the District Disaster Management Officer. First, this chapter presents the demographic characteristics of the flood victims. Secondly, the findings and analyses are presented in relation to the research questions and objectives. Where necessary, sub-sections are created to aid organization of the material presented. To recall, the research questions were; 5. What are the main causes of persistent flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? 6. What is the range of impact cause by floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa generally and district Shangla in particular? 7. What are the mitigation and preventive responses to floods as applied by PDMA? 8. What perceptions are held by victims of floods with regard to PDMA operations in floods situations? IV.1
Khan Khwar Community: Description of Landscape
Shangla district consists of small valleys and hillocks, and is surrounded by thick forests. The total population of the district is 434 563, which is 2.5 percent of the total population of the province (Census 1998). The average elevation of the district ranges from 600-3 45
000 metres ASL. The Indus River flows for about 75 kilometers to the east and sperates Shangla district from Batgram and Tor Ghar districts. There are 28 union councils, two tehsils and five sub-tehsils. Bikanai is a village in Shangla district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. It is situated in Union Council Pirkhana, district Shangla. Bilkanai is located on the river bank of Khan Khwar next to Shahpur and Damorai on the road to Olandar. The village is surrounded by mountains from two sides while the other two sides connect Bilkanai with the other villages of Valley Kana and district Shangla. A link road connects Bilkanai and other nearby villages such as Shahpur, Damorai and Olandar to the main Khwaza Kela-Besham Road joining that at Karora. It is almost two hours from the district Headquarters Alpurai, two hours from Besham, the mini city of Shangla and almost four hours from the main city of mingora Swat. Bilkanai was one of the most affected villages in Shangla district hit during 2010 floods and lots of people suffered damages during this calamity. There were quite many casualties including some deaths and lots of people were left homeless. Besides village Belkanai, villages Lilownai, Lashkar, Arakh, Kikore, Damorai, Faizdara, Karshat, Naway kalay, Shahpur, Kuz Kana, Olandar, Ajmir, Karora, Ranyal, Larai, Tangeer and Abesindh colony of Besham, were also affected.
The Flood of 2010 and its Socio-economic Impacts on Distrit Shangla
There has been no respite for the people of district Shangla. This insurgency hit area, which was on way to recovery, has been hit by rising rivers in 2010. F l a s h f l o o d s i n l a t e J u l y, 2 0 1 0 i n t h e r i v e r s o f S h a n g l a d i s t r i c t c u t o f f K a n a V a l l e y and Shapur from rest of Pakistan. M i l e s o f r o a d s c o n n e c t i n g t h e s e v i l l a g e s o f d i s t r i c t S h a n g l a have been was hed aw ay by swirling w aters of the rivers. Pakistan floods 'heart wrenching' Ban Ki-moon "So many people, in so many places, in so much need" UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has described Pakistan floods as “heart wrenching” the destruction he witnesses on a visit to flood-devastated Pakistan. Mr. Ban Kimoon said the magnitude of the disaster was greater than anything he had seen before. He again urged the world to speed up aid to the flood ravaged country, saying shelter and medicine are desperately needed. He said “one fifth of Pakistan had been ruined by floods. The flood waves must be matched with waves of global support," he said. This is a report of what damage was done by the 2010 floods in terms of human and other losses in remote and backward district Shangla of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This data along with picture have been collected from the field. The fresh, complete and final data till now collected, is being shared in this report. This information states that the damages are huge including both property and lives. If there is some new data coming with the passage of time that may be shared accordingly. This rapid assessment study illustrates the situation of 04 flood-affected Union Councils (UCs) in Shangla District - within these 04 UCs. I visited different flood affected communities during the field survey. The average household size in the 04 affected UCs was found to be seven persons. Focus has been made on district Shangla for the only reason that this flood devastated district is highly ignored due to the remoteness and non-exploring during the relief activities. According to UN, the recent floods in Pakistan have caused a severe damage and the catastrophe has proved to be massive than Tsunami. These torrential rains and flash floods have affected around a million people in parts of southwest and northwestern Pakistan. Flood started on 28th July 2010 in different areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and later on 18 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 9 district of Punjab, 5 districts of Sindh, 7 districts of Baluchistan and 5 districts of AJK were involved. Pakistan has suffered the worst floods for 80 years and at least 2200 people have been died with 22 million others affected. Shangla district was inaccessible with people left homeless and helpless after several rivers burst their banks, washing away villages, roads and bridges. Some 45 bridges were washed away in Swat and district Shangla alone, leaving hundreds of thousands of people stranded without adequate supplies for up to three weeks and posing a grave challenge to the government and aid agencies attempting to reach the vulnerable. Moreover, failure of communication system and outages of utility services have also caused serious concerns to the masses. In Shangla, the 2010 flash floods have wreaked havoc where the death toll has exceeded 160 and about 50 are reported injured. 3700 houses including hospitals, schools and offices have been destroyed by the flood. The road infrastructure is badly damaged and 47
150 contact bridges have collapsed creating serious difficulties in transportation across and within the district. Damage has been caused to irrigation channels and small hydro electric generators, which are privately run by the community. Huge damage has also been caused to the crops and farming fields. "Crossing the river this way was very dangerous but we had to do it," said Omer Khan, who operates one of the rafts in district Shangla. "If we stoped, people across the river starved to death." “Our children were starving to death” said Mr. Umar Gul, who covered a distance of 150 Miles from village Ajmair to village Lilownai on foot. There was no electricity in district flood affected areas of district Shangla and also telephone connection was non existence. The general people of district Shangla remarked that they have never seen the river rise so much. "The waters have a strange, ferocious sound, which I've never heard before. Gushing waters knocked down the walls and doors of our house. We had no option but to flee. My children and wife were sleeping in the open,'' said Juman Khan a resident of Ulander, who had built a beautiful house by the riverbank after working in UAE for over 15 years. "I'd never imagined that my life's work would vanish in one night,'' he lamented. Most people of Shangla district sustained their living through cattle. They were deprived of their single source of living with the floodwaters destroyed their livestock. Going through the villages and towns amid the damaged and destroyed structures, it was evident that the people here will have to begin their lives from scratch. Their hopes have been shattered and overtaken by despair. Battered by flood waters, the displaced people feared darker days ahead. Most of the drinking water channels were completely destroyed by the floods; resultantly the people were drinking unclean and contaminated water, which caused water born diseases. A number of health facilities in certain locations, e.g. in UC Peerkhna, etc. were completely destroyed. Furthermore, as many were cut off from main towns in Shangla, 50 percent of surveyed communities were unable to access health services when needed, while the other 50 percent of communities can access health facilities but with some difficulties. However, 55 percent of communities reported that injured and sick community members were not receiving any medical treatment. Pregnant women in particular were facing problems in accessing health services. The most prevalent ailments were diarrhea, respiratory infections, skin diseases and fever. Human damages: This section describes the extent of human damages caused by the floods. A total of 160 death incidence and 50 injury incidents were occurred, according to the government reports. Reflecting this, the household dataset contained many households with deaths and injuries in a village. The incidence of disease was very high. In all villages, more than half of our sample households reported the prevalence of diseases. Most of the diseases were with skin or eyes. House buildings: Three categories are differentiated: “Destroyed” means that the house was destroyed completely so that it was not suitable for residence; “Partial damage” means that the house was destroyed partially and it required repair before rehabilitation; “Minor damage” means that the house was destroyed and required repair but suitable for accommodation. Village Ulandar was the most seriously affected in terms of the incidence of “Destroyed” while villages, Lilownai, Shapur, Ajmair, Union Council Ghwarnad and Kana Valley, were seriously affected and considered areas, where most
incidence of â€œPartial damageâ€? occurred. When the sample household head was able to report the monetary estimate for the house damage, the information was recorded. The within-village averages of household damages were in the range from Rs. 73,000 to Rs. 195,000. The incidence of house damages was very high on the bank of Khan Khwar River. Agricultural land: At the village level, agricultural lands near the bank of the local rivers were damaged by the floods. In some places, agriculture lands were completely eroded while in some other places, it was partially damaged.The household-level data suggests that sample households in villages Shapure, Karora and Ajmer experienced the severest damages to their agricultural land, followed by those in village Lilownai, Alpurai and Kana valley. In Kana valley, the average land damage value among those with positive damages was Rs. 900,000, which is a substantial amount compared with the mean land asset value at Rs. 2 million. Therefore, land damages due to the floods were heterogeneous not only across villages but also within villages. Crop loss: Flood damages to standing crops at the household level were also substantial. Sample households in village Shapur and Kana Valley experienced the largest damages to their standing crops, followed by those in village Lilowani and Ghwar Band area. In other villages as well, crop damages were substantial for several households. Therefore, crop damages were more prevalent and their size was significant in this village. Livestock: Both of the village and household surveys show that village Ulndar experienced the largest loss of livestock assets. Other rural business: In the study area, several villagers ran a rural and agro business such as dairy, bee-keeping (apiculture), and small shops. The floods brought damages to these facilities.
Infrastructure: Roads were damaged in Union Council Ghwarband, Kana Valley and village Karora. It is interesting to note that main connecting road between Kana Valley and district Headquarter alpurai, is still in very worst condition. It has been observed that people were facing very difficulties. Work on alternative road to Union Council Peer Khana and surrounding areas, was in progress but it is very slow. A new constructed hospital in Karoa was 49
partially destroyed. Educational institutions were partially damaged. In all villages, electricity, and phone service were suspended for several days due to floods and heavy rains. Summary: As discussed above, damages were widespread in the five villages. The pattern of damages differed from village to village. House damages were the most serious in village Olandar, while damages to agricultural land and crops concentrated in village Shapure and livestock damages concentrated in Kana valley. A large within-village variation was also found for each type of damages. A huge human catastrophe occurred in village Olandar, where mud slide killed many people and injured many more.
Aleem Son of Gul Zada narrates his story of destruction in village Olandar as, “I along with my cousin Hanif-ur-Rehman, were watching the main stream, as it was producing a lot of sound and were looking at the destruction of Mahtab house on the other side of the river bank. Meanwhile, my daughter Faynaz came towards us and told me that your uncle house has been destroyed by land sliding. When I came to the spot, I saw there dead bodies. One of the dead bodies was my uncle’s wife, another uncle and his wife. On entering the house, I found dead bodies of my brother’s wife, along with his four children. It was a doom day for me and can not imagine it. One day later, we found two more dead bodies of my brother’s children by the support of hundred of volunteers from the nearby villages. On the same night, we found Hanif’s wife and two children dead at the destruction site”. He further added that this havoc was casued by the excessive rains and out bursting of gas inside the earth. He Yet another man named Muhammad Zamin resident of Kuz Kana narrates his story of destruction of his residential house in these words: “I am 57 years old. My family consists of ten members. July 2010 flood destroyed my small piece of land and residential house partially. It was night time and I along with my family members were in deep slumber. Suddenly, I heard noises of the people. I wake up and rushed to seem what happened. I observed that people were standing outside their house and fully shocked. The situation was totally changed and people were looking towards the houses washed away in flood. I awoke my family and started to search the house. It was to my surprising that one room along with animal’s fodder and blankets were down in the river. My whole family was in deep stressed condition but I persuaded them to not worry as it is a test from the Allah Almighty. Early, in the morning, when I came out from my house and started to enquire about other villagers. I found that a lot of housed were washed away by the floods. Many people were injured, while three died. The general road on the river side was totally destroyed and communication access was totally blocked.” IV.4
Major Disasters in Shangla District.
Shangla is among the high risks districts in Pakistan in terms of its voluerability to different disasters. District Shangla is prone to the following hazards as the most likely to affect the people of the district: I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. IV.5
Flash Floods and Heavy Rains Heavy Snow Landslides Earthquake Drough Infecous Diseases and Epidemics Forest Fire
Capacity of Disaster Risk Management in Shangla District
An analysis of hazards in Shangla clearly shows an increasing trend in the number, frequency, severity, and intensity of hazards affecting the area. Factors responsible for increasing the risk of hazards include pressure on the environment brought about by unplanned development, global climate change and abuse of forest and natural resources. Likewise, economic pressure on the populace pushes more and more people to live in and around hazard-prone areas. Unplanned and new settlements that are springing-up with expanding population are also vulnerable to hazards. Rain falls during the Monsoon season from July up to mid September and rains-snowfall during winter season from mid November to mid February, causes road blockages that isolate the whole district from other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.20 Hazard turn into disasters when the affected community do not have resources to manage the hazard. The capacity of local government and community, despite experience and efforts already achieved for disaster risk management especially after 2005 earthquake and 2010 floods are still weak. Unfortunately, still a reactive emergency response approach has remained the predominant way of dealing with disasters in Shangla district. It has been observed that awareness of district, tehsil, union council and village leaders as well as media, civil society and communities on DRM remains low. Due to weak coordination, and lack of heavy resources, equipment and skill for debris removal, road clearance took days and weeks and renders many areas inaccessible for days and weeks in the district. The 2005 Earthquake has given the impetus to the government of Pakistan to take a more proactive approach to disasters through the promulgation of a National Disaster Management Ordinance, 2006. Under the NDMO, National, Provincial and District Disaster Management Authorities are being established to provide central leadership in disaster risk management. In Shangla, the District Disaster Management Authority is established. However, the Civil Defense Office is yet to be established. There are, however, some positive steps that have been taken by the district government Shangla, UN and NGOs to support capacity building. The district government, with the 20
UNDP, (2007), â€˜Shangla District Disaster Management Planâ€™. Available online.
support of different departments, is in process of developing a comprehensive mechanism to develop intuitional capacity for responding to disasters. IV.6
Functions of District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA)
The tasks of the DDMA are to: I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. IX.
Formulate district disaster risk management plan, based upon local risk assessment and coordination and its implementation. Review development plans of government departments and provide guidance on mainstreaming disaster risk reduction measures in these plans. Continuously monitor hazards, risks and vulnerable conditions within the district. Prepare guidelines and standards for local stakeholders on disaster risk reduction. Conduct education, training and public awareness programs for local officials, stakeholders and communities. Encourage involvement of community groups in disaster risk reduction and response by providing them necessary financial and technical assistance for community level initiatives. Examine construction in the area and if hazard safety standards are not being followed, direct the relevant entities to secure compliance of such standards. Invest in specific capabilities to meet requirements to manage all types of threat particular to the local area. Undertake appropriate preparedness measures at district level; e.g. maintain an early warning system, identify buildings to be used as evacuation sites, stockpile relief and rescue materials and identify alternative means for emergency communications. In the event of a disaster, organize emergency response through the District Emergency Operation Centre (DEOC).
Chapter No.5 Conclusion and Recommendations This chapter describes the conclusion about the finding of this research and the methodology used for this research. This chapter concludes the discussion from chapter 1 to chapter 4, and states the main contribution and key research findings of this research. Some recommendations provide in this chapter based on the discussion and findings of this research.
In this research, we have studied the socio-economic impacts of floods on the rural communities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in general and district Shangla in particular from both secondary studies and filed level investigation. This study was designed to know generally about the socio-economic impacts of floods on the rural communities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with partciluar focus on district Shangla as a case study. The first chapter outlined the main research questions and in later chapters, these have question have been examined. Recent global trends have shown that the threats posed by disasters are increasing, which is evedent from the recent Sandy in American Continent. The approach of those looking to reduce these risks is shifting. Instead of relying solely on emergency response mechanism, in recent years there has been growing focus on mitigation and preparedness activates. The local community location and proximity to the river has rendered them vulnerable to flood to some degree. Water is vital for the communityâ€™s agricultural livelihoods, drinking and other related use. At the present time floods tend to create more problems. From the interviews, the participants showed that their vulnerability and their resilience to flood can decrease or increase over time depending on personal characteristics, family circumstances and other factors such as the government flood management system, and the relationship between the local people and the local government. V.2
Key Research Findings
The data is indicative of the fact Shangla is more prone to disasters and indigenous coping mechanism are not sufficient to manage disaster effectively. Several studies show that disasters are always linked with the vulnerable situations and conditions of the affected village. While doing disaster risk analysis, the vulnerabilities verses capacities cannot be ignored. The more vulnerable areas always have less capacity to cope with disasters, hence more prone to destruction. The study area is vulnerable in many and diverse aspects. These vulnerabilities make the study area more prone to different hazards and disasters. All selected villages are situated on high altitudes and mountainous zones, which have made them more susceptible to heavy rains, land sliding, lightning and earthquake. Higher the place, higher the possibility of lightning and severe the impacts/affects of earthquake and land sliding, are the common characteristics of all studied villages. The people living around the flood prone areas in the district are well aware of the adverse impacts of the future floods from their past experience; however, they are still prefet to live in these places. They find it difficult to completely shift from flood prone places, because they are unable to afford alternative places. Village Damoray and Shapur are located at the bank of river Khan Khwar. Many water courses locally called â€œTangiâ€? also pass through or/and surrounded by all villages. These water courses are usually flooded in monsoon season, consequently cause flood in respective villages. Water level usually rises to dangerous level in rainy season in both water courses and rivers due to heavy rains. At some places, roads also through these water courses and no vehicle can stand against or pass through in rainy season because of the high water. The houses in all villages are locally constructed without any technical help of professional architectures. However, some villagers after having experience of 2005 Earthquake and 2010 Floods, have adopted some construction mechanisms, which according to local respondents can save them from reoccurring disasters. The long and harsh winters form October to April, with heavy snow fall and rain have made the communities more vulnerable to cope with disasters. People take wood from nearby forests. The analysis of focus group discussions reveals that some 80 to 90 percent of disforestation is being occurred only to meet the fuel needs. There is no provision in any of the village in district Shangla. Extensive use of wood for both subsistence and commercial purposes, there is occurring rapid deforestation in Shangla, due to which the region is becoming more vulnerable to flash floods, earthquake and drought. Heavy snowfall especially in village Liownai, Olndar, Ajmer and Shangla Top has also made these villages vulnerable to different disasters. These villages are usually under heavy snow fall from December to March. Two to four feet snowfall is usually reported in these months, which blocks the transportation, freezes water in pipes and in water courses and stop human movement for daily chores. All villages lock proper and planned water sewerage and sanitation systems. Garbage is usually thrown out in the nearby water courses or open places, which blocks water and cause floods in rainy season. The road leading to Ajmer is damaged has been damaged by 2010 floods and no repaid has been done so far. It creates problems for villagers in terms of both transportation of both of food items and other stuff to their villages from nearby places. Poverty is widespread in the study area. Based on the observation during the filed work and analysis result of the interview of the total of 55 respondents, it can be observed that
the poor class is more affected by 2010 floods as compared to other classes in the study area, because they have no resources for disaster management. Poor live in damaged houses and do not have to repair them because of their poor economic conditions, which in turn make them more vulnerable to disasters. The group discussion shows that some poor families have borrowed money from their relatives, friends or from some banks, mainly for house reconstruction but majority are still living in their damaged houses. The respondents mentioned that the government should inform them before disaster and help the affected communities as soon possible after the disaster. Unawareness about the environment and the causes of disasters in general, are widespread in the study area. Most people believe that disasters are the outcome of their wrong deeds. Almost all villages have received disaster assistance/relief in past. Data is indicative of the fact that after the recent 2010 floods, the affecting communities including studied villages received relief assistance by many NGOs, INGOs, UN Institutions and government. Most of these organizations have also started post disaster development programs in these communities which include infrastructure rehabilitation, disaster preparedness, training to teachers, etc. When targeting the villages for disaster management, it is important to keep in mind that the people most vulnerable to disaster are the poor. The aim of disaster response should be to increase people’s capacities to better deal with adverse events. This could be achieved firstly through understanding people’s perception and coping mechanisms and secondly through strengthening the existing coping mechanisms which do not affect the basis of their livelihood or impact negatively on other communities and future generations. It is essential not to view communities as passive recipients of disaster relief, as they are already suffering from disasters. In order to break the vicious cycle it is important that “victims” become the main actors and take part in the decision making in disaster response. During the study, it was clear that self help and solidarity of households and communities was as important in the face of disaster. Social support is not a quantifiable mechanism but nevertheless constitutes the backbone of coping mechanisms in Shangla District. There is a strong need to strengthen these social institutions. Development and disaster management programs should promote activities that mobilize and strengthen local resources and capacities of self-management at household and community level, rather then promoting the projects not suitable for affected population. It would be helpful to develop at the community and national levels, a system to monitor the impact of disasters. Improved risk and vulnerability mapping, disaster awareness and early warning systems at the community level would also be useful. V.3
Recommendations 1. Disaster preparedness can only works if the local authorities and the affected population cooperate. They are called to joind hands and enter into a rsik
partnership. It is important of having worshops with amny stakholders in order to get the necessary understanding between and among the stakeholders. 2.
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