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Second Quarter │2012

WERRIBEE AREA Property Watch®

WERRIBEE AREA MARKET OVERVIEW The following Property Watch report is the result of an investigation into the historic and current market trends of the Wyndham Local Government Area, which encompasses the city of Werribee and surrounding suburbs including Hoppers Crossing, Point Cook and Wyndham Vale. The Wyndham area continues to be one of the fastest growing regions in Victoria, supporting the Western development of Melbourne. Transaction volumes have seen consistent increases from the start of the century through to late 2009/10 for both houses and units. Since then volumes had been softening steadily, the six months to March 2012 however has seen a sizeable decrease on typical sales levels. House sales have averaged 1,509 for a six month period for the five years to March 2011. The six months to March 2012 saw only 838 houses transact, a 44.5% decrease on the five year average to March 2011. The same comparison for units sees a decrease on the five year average of 66% based on the 89 transactions for the six months to March 2012.

Werribee Mansion

MARKET INDICATORS Change from Last

Year

Half Year

HOUSE SALES HOUSE MEDIAN

Much of the Victorian market has seen significant decreases in transaction levels, with faster growing areas (such as Werribee and Melton) seeing greater reductions in volumes than traditionally slower growing areas. Consumer sentiment seems to be behind most of the reduction in growth, with buyers reluctant to commit to purchasing decisions. PRDnationwide Werribee director Rohan Smith comments that numbers at open for inspections have increased substantially in recent months, and that this is translating to more offers and more sale activity. Whilst sale numbers have not yet returned to previous levels Mr Smith feels the current trends are all moving towards higher volume levels.

UNIT SALES UNIT MEDIAN

WERRIBEE AREA HOUSE & UNIT SALES CYCLE

LAND SALES LAND MEDIAN

House Sales

2,500

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

$400,000

$354,500 $350,000

$250,000

1,500

$100,000 500 $50,000

2011 SEP

2012 MAR

2010 SEP

2011 MAR

2009 SEP

2010 MAR

2008 SEP

2009 MAR

2007 SEP

2008 MAR

2006 SEP

2007 MAR

2005 SEP

2006 MAR

2004 SEP

2005 MAR

$0 2003 SEP

0 2004 MAR

Despite significantly lower volumes both units (1.0%) and vacant land (5.9%) post median price growth increases

$150,000

2002 SEP

Substantial falls in transaction levels are seen across house, units and vacant land

1,000

2003 MAR

$200,000

2002 MAR

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

$300,000 Median sale price

$290,000

Number of sales

The indicators depicted above are based on the twelve months ending February 2012.

2,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

www.prdresearch.com.au

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Vacant Land sales over $200,000 have

quadrupled their share of the market since 2009

HOUSE PRICE POINTS Mar 12

18%

Mar 11

19%

Mar 10

47%

21%

13%

45%

19%

15%

38%

Mar 09

35%

51% 0%

20%

40%

14%

28% 60%

9%

9% 5% 80%

Given the contraction in volumes it is not surprising to see price growth over the last twelve months lower than in recent periods. The median price for houses closed the six month period to March 2012 at $354,500 down marginally on the $357,000 median from twelve months earlier. In spite of this negative growth the five year growth rate stands at 7.2%, reflecting the longer term strength of the market. The house price points table demonstrates the significant price growth in recent years. Sales under $300,000 which represented 58% of all sales in the twelve months to March 2009 have fallen to only 19% of the market for the March 2012 twelve months. Sales in the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket now dominate the market with 47% of all sales occurring in this range. The top end of the market over $400,000 has more than doubled in the comparison period from 14% of all sales in 2009 to 34% in 2012. Unit prices managed to post a small growth of 1.0% when the median for the March 2012 six months closed at $290,000. Whilst a strong result in light of the 66% decrease in transaction levels, it remains well short of the five year average growth of 6.1% per annum. The decrease in vacant land sales for the March 2012 six months has been more dramatic than either houses or units. In the five years to March 2011 the average sales for a six month period were 2,205. The six months to March 2012 saw only 352 blocks transact, a decrease of 76.0%. Whilst this decrease is one of the sharpest the market has seen, the sales cycle does show previous swings up and down are substantial.

100%

Percentage of Settled Sales

Less than $100,000

$100,000 to $199,999

$200,000 to $299,999

$300,000 to $399,999

$400,000 to $499,999

At Least $500,000

Despite encountering a greater downturn in transaction levels, vacant land prices outperformed houses and units to record a strong 5.9% median price growth, when the median for the March 2012 closed at $217,000 up from $205,000 of twelve months earlier. The market is underpinned by strong underlying demand for affordable land within reach of the Melbourne metropolitan area, and the shortage of same. The price points table shows some dramatic shifts away from the lower price brackets towards the higher brackets. Sales under $150,000 which represented half of all sales for the twelve months to March 2009, represent only 7% of all sales as at March 2012. Sales over $200,000 represented only 14% of the market at March 2009, represent 60% of all sales at March 2012.

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

VACANT LAND PRICE POINTS Mar 12

www.prdresearch.com.au

WERRIBEE AREA VACANT LAND SALES CYCLE 4,000

7%

33%

27%

$250,000

Number… Median

26%

$217,000

3,500

Mar 10

42%

31%

Mar 09

23%

43%

19%

48% 0%

20%

36% 40%

60%

$200,000

15%

3,000 5%

10%2% 80%

100%

Percentage of Settled Sales

2,500

$150,000

2,000 $100,000

1,500

Median sale price

12%

Number of sales

Mar 11

1,000 $50,000 500

2011 SEP

2012 MAR

2010 SEP

2011 MAR

2009 SEP

2010 MAR

2008 SEP

2009 MAR

2007 SEP

2008 MAR

2006 SEP

2007 MAR

2005 SEP

2006 MAR

2004 SEP

2005 MAR

At Least $300,000

2003 SEP

$250,000 to $299,999

2004 MAR

$200,000 to $249,999

$0 2002 SEP

$150,000 to $199,999

0 2003 MAR

$100,000 to $149,999

2002 MAR

Less than $100,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Research Analyst │Mark Corboy P (0400) 520 717 E markcs4u@gmail.com.au PRDnationwide Werribee │Principal Rohan Smith P (03) 9742 7557 F (03) 9742 5443 E werribee@prd.com.au PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you inte nd to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnati onwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2012

Werribee Property Watch Q2 2012  

Werribee Property Watch Q2 2012

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