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PRDnationwide Research Report

Australian Beach Towns Real Estate Analysis Q2 2013

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. For further details contact: Aaron Maskrey, Residential Research Director P: (07) 3370 1702 E: aaronmaskrey@prd.com.au

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Table of Contents Key Findings .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2 1.Australian Coastal Town Overview .............. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….......………….3 2.Byron Bay Coastal Town Overview .............................................……………………………………………………………………………………………………………........…………...8 3.Coffs Harbour Coastal Town Overview ……………………………………………………………………….....................………………………………………………..........…………….9 4.The Entrance Coastal Town Overview .........……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….........………………10 5.Yamba Coastal Town Overview ....................................................…………………………………………………………………..……………………..........…………………………...11

6.Agnes Water Coastal Town Overview ...........................………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….........………13 7.Gold Coast Coastal Town Overview .......................................…….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….........……….14 8.Hervey Bay Coastal Town Overview ........................…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….........……..…15 9.Port Douglas Coastal Town Overview .........................................…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….........………….16 10.Sunshine Coast Coastal Town Overview ................................……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..........…………..17 11.Whitsundays Coastal Town Overview ….....................……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..........…………....18 12.Yeppoon Coastal Town Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................19 13.Fleurieu Peninsula Coastal Town Overview .................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...........………...…..21 14.Bells Beach Coastal Town Overview ................................................…………………………………………………………………………………………………...........…………...…23 15.Lakes Entrance Coastal Town Overview .............……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...........………...………24 16.90 Mile Beach Coastal Town Overview ..………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...........……...………..25

17.Broome Coastal Town Overview ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 18.Dunsborough - Busselton Coastal Town Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................28 19.Disclaimer……………………………………………….......………………………………………………………………………………………………………….........……………………..29

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Key Findings What are the major demographic changes over the past five years within coastal towns? Do coastal towns just attract retirees, or with the advances through new technology, are young professionals and families able to shift away from the large cities? • Overall, Australia has an ageing population, with an increase of 1.3 per cent in the portion of residents aged between 55 to 74. • Compared to five years prior Australian coastal towns have a larger portion of older residents and retirees at 6.7 per cent more than the nation. • Coastal towns also have a smaller portion of residents at 6.6 per cent, that are under the age of 45 years. While technology has improved allowing for professionals to relocate from the larger cities, relocating retirees shifting towards the coast is still the predominant demographic trend. Has the market shifted from being one that is contracting, to a market that is growing? The wider trends can be easily identified when all of the coastal towns are taken as a collective. The house market appears to have shifted off the bottom of the property cycle, with increasing levels of activity and a sustained period where the median price has ceased declining. A continuing period of low interest rates should see confidence build with further increases in sales activity. The unit market has observed a steady level of transactions over 2012, but has endured a declining median price. Compared to the higher priced house market, many unit markets provide an excellent affordable alternative for would be investors. If so, which market has experienced the best revival in terms of activity since the financial crisis? Hervey Bay has recorded the largest increase in house sales activity over 2012, increasing the level of transactions by 60.8 per cent. The Dunsborough-Busselton Area followed with a 51.1 per cent rise in activity. The Dunsborough-Busselton Area experienced the largest increase in unit activity over 2012, expanding by 66.7 per cent. This was followed by the Broome Area, increasing by 39.1 per cent. Which market has experienced the largest increase in value, if any? Byron Bay recorded the highest median house price over the second half of 2012, at $664,000. This equates to an increase of 11.1 per cent from the previous year (up $66,500). The Bells Beach Coastal Area recorded the highest median unit price, at $505,000. This is a rise of $65,000 more than from the previous year.

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Australian Coastal Town Demographics

Australian Coastal Town Age Pyramid

Costal 2011 84+

84+ 2006

There was a decline of one per cent in the portion of residents aged 5 to 24, in Australian coastal towns. Coastal towns in Australia have a larger portion at 6.7 per cent of total residents who are aged over 55 years, while the rest of Australia has a larger portion of residents at 6.6 per cent aged below 45.

Coastal Town vs. Australia Age Pyramid Comparison Australia 2011

-2.5%

1.9%

2011

75-84

75-84

-6.3%

65-74

4.5%

-10.1%

7.6%

65-74 55-64

-13.4%

45-54

-13.6%

11.6%

55-64

Age bracket

Australia has an ageing population between the years 55 to 74, through an increase of 1.3 per cent of the total residents, while there are 1.1 per cent less residents aged between 5 to 19.

Age brackets

45-54 35-44

35-44 25-34

13.7%

-13.2%

14.3%

-12.1%

13.8%

25-34 20-24

-5.9%

15-19

-5.8%

6.5%

-5.8%

6.6%

6.8%

20-24 15-19

5-14

-11.5%

12.7%

5-14 0-4 0-4

0.0%

-20.0% 2.0%

Top Australian Coastal Town Markets • Hervey Bay has recorded the largest increase in house sales activity over 2012, increasing the level of transactions by 60.8 per cent. The Dunsborough-Busselton Area followed with a 51.1 per cent rise in activity. • The Dunsborough-Busselton Area experienced the largest increase in unit activity over 2012, expanding by 66.7 per cent. This was followed by the Broome Area, increasing by 39.1 per cent. • Byron Bay recorded the highest median house price over the second half of 2012, at $664,000. This equates to an increase of 11.1 per cent from the previous year (up $66,500).

4.0%

6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

12.0%

14.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

16.0%

-5.0%

0.0% Percent

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

Top Selling Australian Beach Town House Markets 2011 DEC 2012 DEC

1yr growth

2011 DEC 2012 DEC 1yr growth

Hervey Bay

296

476

60.8%

$305,000

$306,000

0.3%

Busselton

178

269

51.1%

$440,000

$435,000

-1.1%

Byron Bay

52

74

42.3%

$597,500

$664,000

11.1%

Yamba

31

38

22.6%

$430,000

$397,500

-7.6%

Brooome

51

61

19.6%

$725,000

$670,000

-7.6%

Table prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

• The Bells Beach Coastal Area recorded the highest median unit price, at $505,000. This is a rise of $65,000 more than from the previous year.

Top Selling Australian Beach Town Unit Markets 2011 DEC 2012 DEC

1yr growth

2011 DEC 2012 DEC 1yr growth

Busselton

33

55

66.7%

$380,000

$355,000

-6.6%

Brooome

23

32

39.1%

$430,000

$390,000

-9.3%

Yamba

15

21

40.0%

$360,000

$300,000

-16.7%

Port Douglas

101

128

26.7%

$218,000

$200,250

-8.1%

Whitsundays

43

53

23.3%

$280,000

$260,000

-7.1%

Table prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

3

20.0%

4


Rental Market •

While capital growth has favoured housing stock with rising median prices in most localities, unit stock has typically returned a more favourable gross yield largely due to the affordability of sale price.

The average gross rental yield achieved in the second half of 2012 for Australian coastal town houses was 4.8 per cent, resulting in a decrease of 0.3 per cent from the previous year.

• •

3

Australian coastal town units registered an average gross rental yield of 4.9 per cent, increasing by 0.8 per cent from the previous year. While unit stock has achieved an increasing gross rental yield for 2012, potential investors should do their homework on each particular market they are interested in, as some unit markets could be subject to oversupply. The average asking rents for the majority of New South Wales coastal towns analysed within this study experienced a decrease in for both house and unit stock. Asking rents in The Entrance decreased the most by an average 8.9 per cent from the previous year, followed by Coffs Harbour contracting by 7.6 per cent. The largest increase to asking rents in a Queensland coastal town was experienced by Hervey Bay, with an average rise of 20.2 per cent from the previous year. This was followed by Agnes Waters (up 18.8 per cent) and the Whitsundays (up by 6.4 per cent). Asking rents on the Gold Coast decreased on average 8.4 per cent from the previous year.

Asking rents increased the most in 90 Miles Beach for Victorian coastal towns, rising by 44.4 per cent to $260 per week. Bells Beach decreased to on average 7.1 per cent and Lakes Entrance contracted by an average 8.7 per cent.

The Dunsborough to Busselton region in Western Australia experienced an average increase of 3.4 per cent from the previous year, while Broome decreased by an average 17 per cent.

The Fleurieu Peninsula in South Australia recorded an average increase of 36.2 per cent in asking rents from the previous year, with unit rental stock leading the way with a 73.9 per cent rise to $389 per week.

Australian coastal Town Gross Rental Yields - Houses

Australian coastal Town Gross Rental Yields - Units

Region

Yield

Annual Change

Region

Yield

Annual Change

90 Mile Beach

8.7%

-0.5%

Broome

7.7%

0.7%

Hervey Bay

5.4%

0.4%

Byron Bay

6.3%

-1.7%

Broome

5.4%

-2.4%

Coffs Harbour

5.9%

0.7%

Lakes Entrance

5.4%

0.6%

Yeppoon

5.1%

0.4%

Coffs Harbour

5.3%

-0.6%

Hervey Bay

5.0%

1.5%

Yeppoon

5.0%

-0.1%

The Entrance

5.0%

1.9%

Port Douglas

4.7%

0.0%

Whitsundays

4.8%

1.5%

Whitsundays

4.6%

-0.3%

Gold Coast- Tweed

4.8%

0.1%

Agnes Water

4.5%

-0.2%

Lakes Entrance

4.8%

1.9%

The Entrance

4.5%

-0.4%

Agnes Water

4.8%

n.a.

Byron Bay

4.4%

-1.9%

Port Douglas

4.7%

0.1%

Sunshine Coast

4.3%

-0.1%

Sunshine Coast

4.4%

0.4%

Gold Coast- Tweed

4.3%

-0.6%

Fleurieu Peninsula

4.2%

4.8%

Fleurieu Peninsula

4.2%

0.0%

Dunsborough- Busselton

3.9%

0.4%

Dunsborough- Busselton

4.2%

0.2%

Yamba

3.8%

0.7%

Yamba

4.1%

0.2%

Bells Beach

3.3%

-1.0%

Bells Beach

3.3%

0.1%

90 Mile Beach

n.a.

n.a.

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Australian coastal Town House Market Overview 8,000

The median house price reached a peak at the end of 2009 ($470,000) in which it then softened for two years. Over 2012 the median price appears to have reached a price floor and has sustained itself at $435,000.

Median sale price

$100,000 1,000

$50,000

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 JUN

2011 DEC

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2008 DEC

2009 JUN

$0

2008 JUN

0

2007 JUN

Over the past decade, the average capital growth achieved was 11.4 per cent per annum. For the second half of 2012, sellers realised an average capital appreciation of 3.3 per cent per annum.

$150,000 2,000

2007 DEC

$200,000

3,000

2006 JUN

A resales analysis was undertaken across all Australian beach town areas to ascertain an efficient measure on average capital growth. From the Average Capital Growth chart, the market cycle is easily identified. Peaks of the coastal market was experienced during 1984, 1990 and again during 2004.

$250,000

2006 DEC

$300,000

4,000

2005 JUN

Looking long-term, Australian Beach Towns achieved a 10 year growth rate of 5.1 per cent per annum in the median price.

$350,000 5,000

2005 DEC

$400,000 6,000

2004 JUN

Almost half the house sales that occurred during the second half of 2012 took place in the $300,000 to $499,999 price segment.

$450,000 $435,000

2004 DEC

$500,000

Median

7,000

2003 JUN

Few houses transact less than $299,999, amounting to only 14.6 per cent of the total house sales over the December 2012 six month period.

Number of sales

2003 DEC

Australian Beach Town House Sales Cycle

2002 DEC

Since the first half of 2011, house sales activity has increased three consecutive six month periods. This equates to an increase of 4.3 per cent from the previous year, while activity is still 8.3 per cent below the level that transacted from five years prior.

Number of sales

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Australian Beach Town House Market Average Capital Growth 30.0% Average Capital Growth p.a.

Market Cycle

Median House Price House Sales

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

10yr growth 2012 DEC rate

$265,000 6,801

$455,000 5,725

$435,000 3,564

$435,000 3,718

5.1% -5.9%

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

-0.9% -8.3%

0.0% 4.3%

Average capital growth p.a.

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2006 DEC

2005 DEC

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2002 DEC

2001 DEC

2000 DEC

1999 DEC

1998 DEC

1997 DEC

1996 DEC

1995 DEC

1994 DEC

1993 DEC

1992 DEC

1991 DEC

1990 DEC

1989 DEC

1988 DEC

1987 DEC

1986 DEC

1985 DEC

1984 DEC

1983 DEC

1982 DEC

1981 DEC

1980 DEC

1979 DEC

1978 DEC

1977 DEC

0.0%

Six month period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

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6


Australian coastal Town Unit Market Overview

$250,000 5,000 $200,000 4,000 $150,000

Median sale price

$300,000 6,000

3,000 $100,000

2,000

$50,000

1,000

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 JUN

2011 DEC

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

$0

2006 DEC

0

Over the past decade, the average capital growth achieved was 7.9 per cent per annum. For the second half of 2012, sellers realised almost no average capital appreciation, with a rate of 0.1 per cent per annum.

2005 JUN

A resales analysis was undertaken across all Australian beach town areas to ascertain an efficient measure on average capital growth. From the Average Capital Growth chart, the market cycle is easily identified. Peaks of the coastal market was experienced during 1989 and again during 2004.

$350,000 $340,000

7,000

2005 DEC

Looking long-term, Australian Beach Towns achieved a 10 year growth rate of 3.5 per cent per annum in the median unit price.

$400,000

2004 JUN

Median

8,000

Few houses transact less than $199,999, amounting to only 11.6 per cent of the total unit sales over the December 2012 six month period.

Just over half the total unit sales that occurred during the second half of 2012 took place in the $200,000 to $299,999 price segment.

$450,000

Number of sales

9,000

2002 DEC

10,000

Number of sales

Australian Beach Town Unit Sales Cycle

2004 DEC

The median unit price has declined by 12.8 per cent since 2010, to register $340,000 over the second half of 2012. According to the median unit price, units are at their most affordable level since 2004.

2003 JUN

Since the stimulus driven period of 2009, unit sales activity has remained fairly subdued.

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Australian Beach Town Unit Market Average Capital Growth 20.0%

Average capital growth p.a.

Market Cycle

18.0%

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

$240,000 8,000

$385,000 6,573

$354,000 2,901

$340,000 2,968

3.5% -9.4%

-2.5% -14.7%

-4.0% 2.3%

16.0%

Average capital growth p.a.

Unit Median Price Unit Sales

2002 DEC

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Six month period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

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7


New South Wales Beach Towns

12

8


“Increased property sales, as house market strengthens”

The Byron Bay house market appears to have lifted of the bottom of its cycle from the second half of 2011. Annual growth in the median house price over 2012 was an exceptional 11.1 per cent to $664,000, while sales activity has strengthened by 42.3 per cent. Houses priced above $1 million now account to the largest price bracket (28 per cent of total house sales) of sales, growing by 11 per cent in six months. While this is the largest transacted price point over the December 2012 six months period, it represents the high end of the market. At the more affordable end of the market, approximately 51 per cent of total house sales transacted in the $400,000 to $699,999 price segment.

45-54 35-44

The unit market amounts to a large portion (40 per cent) of the total dwellings in Byron Bay. The majority of unit sales transact within the $300,000 to $499,999 price range, amounting to 63 per cent of total unit sales.

15-19

House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

20-24

5-14 0-4

0.0%

$900,000

73

75 68

$464,000

81

82 67

100

66 63

87

97

96 79

67

71

$400,000

71

53

71 143

50

$500,000

85

49 57 32

54

104 112

45

47

96

84

64

56

71

68

60

42

57

52

55

$200,000 $100,000

Less than $400,000

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 JUN

2011 DEC

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 DEC

2009 JUN

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

20.0%

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

$485,000 $385,000 87 68

$710,000 $512,000 143 95

$597,500 $430,000 52 45

$664,000 $464,000 74 49

3.2% 1.9% -1.6% -3.2%

-1.3% -1.9% -12.3% -12.4%

11.1% 7.9% 42.3% 8.9%

2010 DEC

2011 DEC 17%

3%

18%

6%

12%

10%

3%

40%

8%

10%

31%

13%

7%

20%

4%

$600,000 to $699,999

$500,000 to $599,999

22%

$400,000 to $499,999

3%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

12%

25%

26%

26%

Less than $300,000

7%

0%

12%

40%

2%

2%

11%

10%

9%

16%

24%

35%

27%

7%

20%

4%

11%

23%

13%

2012 DEC

4%

5%

11%

8%

$300,000 to $399,999

16%

8%

60%

7%

2011 DEC 4%

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

14%

2010 DEC

11%

$800,000 to $899,999

5%

2%

22%

28%

2009 DEC At least $900,000

8%

15%

14%

Byron Bay Unit Price Points

2012 DEC 28%

15%

7%

$600,000 to $699,999

$400,000 to $499,999

Half year period

18.0%

10yr growth rate

5%

$700,000 to $799,999

$300,000

$0

16.0%

2012 DEC

5%

0%

0

14.0%

2011 DEC

25%

$800,000 to $899,999

$500,000 to $599,999

74

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Portion of total residents

2007 DEC

17%

$900,000 to $999,999

Price point

95

Median sale price

$600,000 150

At least $1,000,000

$664,000

81

6.0%

2002 DEC

2009 DEC

$700,000

95

4.0%

Byron Bay House Price Points

$800,000 200

2.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

House Median Price Unit Median Price House Sales Unit Sales

Unit Median

2011

65-74

25-34

250

Number of sales

2006 75-84

The median unit price has also improved over 2012, increasing by 7.9 per cent (to $464,000), while unit sales activity has risen by 53.1 per cent in 18 months.

Byron Bay House & Unit Sales Cycle

7

84+

55-64

Observing the demographic shits within Byron Bay, it is apparent that a large portion of the youth population aged 24 and under have left the region over the past five years, amounting to a fall of almost three per cent. The age segment of 55 to 74 has increased by a large 5.6 per cent of total residents. This significant shift is greater than just a resident population ageing, and signifies a growing number of incoming residents that have just retired or are near retirement.

Byron Bay Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Byron Bay coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Byron Bay and Suffolk Park.

Price point

Age bracket

Byron Bay, New South Wales

29%

13%

60%

2%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

9


“A market which is reliable and consistent”

This consistently performing market has recently experienced slightly subdued sales activity over 2012. Over 2012 house sales have decreased by 14.4 per cent while unit sales have fallen by 21.2 per cent. However, subdued activity in the market has not affected the median price for both house and units. The reliability in the Coffs Harbour market is a positive sign when considering other coastal markets around Australia experiencing much larger market contractions since 2009.

For the December 2012 six month period the Coffs Harbour coastal Area recorded a median house price of $365,000, registering an increase of 2.8 per cent from the previous year. Few house sales transacted over $500,000, with the majority occurring in the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket, at 43 per cent of total sales.

Coffs Harbour Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Coffs Harbour coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Boambee East, Coffs Harbour, Kokora, Sapphire Beach, Sawtell and Toormina.

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64

Sales within the unit market has contracted since 2009, but the median unit price has held reasonably steady. Over 2012, the median unit price increased by 4.1 per cent to $267,000. Only eight per cent of unit sales transacted above $500,000, while 35 per cent of total sales sold within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket.

45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

5-14 0-4

There are two noticeable changes that have occurred within the coastal demographic of the region over the past five years. The first is a contraction of 1.3 per cent in youths aged 5 to 14 while the portion of residents aged 55-64 has increased 1.3 per cent.

Coffs Harbour House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

1,200

$400,000

2011

75-84

Age bracket

Coffs Harbour, New South Wales

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

House Median Price

$198,850

$340,000

$355,000

$365,000

6.3%

1.4%

2.8%

Unit Median Price

$139,950

$235,000

$256,500

$267,000

6.7%

2.6%

4.1%

House Sales

552

418

284

243

-7.9%

-10.3%

-14.4%

Unit Sales

475

274

165

130

-12.2%

-13.9%

-21.2%

$365,000

Coffs Harbour House Price Points 2009 DEC

130 243

143

165 284

238

338

247

378

332

153

$150,000

$50,000

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

2010 DEC

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

3%

1%

$600,000 to $699,999

5%

7%

6%

2%

8%

22%

25%

24%

$300,000 to $399,999

38%

43%

45%

$200,000 to $299,999

23%

Less than $200,000

14%

4%

0%

20%

3%

40%

3%

43%

$300,000 to $399,999

18%

3%

60%

3%

26%

$200,000 to $299,999

2%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

2%

18%

24%

0%

2%

8%

44%

Less than $200,000

36%

24%

20%

40%

1%

3%

5%

3%

12%

23%

18%

37%

35%

28%

60%

26%

80%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

8

2%

2%

1%

$500,000 to $599,999

2012 DEC 1%

1%

$600,000 to $699,999

8%

16%

2011 DEC

9%

$400,000 to $499,999

17%

2010 DEC

2%

$700,000 to $799,999

1%

4%

$400,000 to $499,999

2009 DEC At least $800,000

2%

1%

4%

Coffs Harbour Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

2%

2%

3%

$500,000 to $599,999

2011 DEC

$100,000

$0

2002 DEC

0

At least $800,000

Price point

225

259

243

221 190 393

295

418

199

274

$200,000

337

237 387

218

214 343

333

162

188 322

301

351

200

438

560

552

400

286

213

265

600

Median sale price

$250,000

351

475

800

$267,000

415

Number of sales

$300,000

Price point

$350,000 1,000

10


“Buyers took advantage of market conditions in 2009”

The Entrance is another New South Wales coastal market which continues to experience a steady level of sales activity, despite the adverse macro-economic factors which have influenced other coastal regions. Conversely, buyers have taken advantage of the favourably low interest rates and increased government stimulus spending during 2009 which observed a boost in sales activity coupled with a rise in both the median price of houses and units. Over the past five years there has been an average of 710 settled house sales per six month period, with the most recent six month period ending December 2012 registering 637 transactions. Over 2012, the median house price has increased by 2.4 per cent to $425,000, with the majority of house sales occurring in the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket. By observing movements within the house price points, it is apparent that the price bracket of $700,000 to $799,999 has expanded by four per cent, while the $900,000 plus bracket has contracted by three per cent.

Since 2009 unit sales have decreased from 350 down to 189 for the December 2012 six month period. Despite this fall in sales, the median unit price has remained fairly robust, hovering around $340,000. For the December 2012 period, the median price of units transacted was $335,000, with 33 per cent of total sales occurring within the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket.

The Entrance House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

1,600

637

633

733

689

654

708

851 641

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 JUN

2011 DEC

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 DEC

2006 JUN

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

15-19 5-14

0-4 2.0%

4.0%

6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

12.0%

14.0%

$350,000

$410,750

$415,000

$425,000

2.0%

0.7%

2.4%

Unit Median Price

$310,000

$375,000

$340,000

$335,000

0.8%

-2.2%

-1.5%

1,137

778

733

637

-5.6%

-3.9%

-13.1%

347

251

233

189

-5.9%

-5.5%

-18.9%

8%

$800,000 to $899,999

Price point

2010 DEC 6%

2%

$700,000 to $799,999

5%

7%

$500,000 to $599,999

3%

10%

15%

7%

15%

19%

19%

$300,000 to $399,999

27%

29%

9%

6%

20%

20%

$300,000 to $399,999

26%

30%

31%

$200,000 to $299,999

28%

5%

12%

25%

1%

7%

7%

14%

4%

2%

4%

11%

14%

2012 DEC 3%

5%

3%

$500,000 to $599,999

2011 DEC 9%

2%

$600,000 to $699,999

$400,000 to $499,999

13%

2010 DEC

9%

$700,000 to $799,999

2%

9%

$400,000 to $499,999

2009 DEC At least $800,000

5%

2%

1yr growth

The Entrance Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

8%

3%

4%

$600,000 to $699,999

2011 DEC

5yr growth rate

4%

17%

11%

30%

Less than $300,000

17%

0%

20%

13%

40%

15%

60%

Less than $200,000

13%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

30%

33%

7%

0%

7%

20%

29%

29%

9%

40%

60%

11%

80%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

9

16.0%

$100,000

$0

2002 DEC

20-24

House Median Price

At least $900,000

$50,000

0

25-34

10yr growth rate

2009 DEC

$150,000

200

35-44

The Entrance House Price Points Median sale price

189

233 237

245

241

280

241

259

231 598

778

788

608

687

663

582

251

221

224

170

219

312 208 723

623

400

$250,000 $200,000

936

1,137

600

349

302

392

800

$300,000

885

347

395

1,000

$350,000

45-54

2012 DEC

$400,000

$335,000

55-64

2011 DEC

$425,000

1,064

Number of sales

1,200

65-74

2007 DEC

$450,000

1,400

2011

2002 DEC

Unit Sales

$500,000

2006

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

House Sales

Unit Median

84+ 75-84

0.0%

Observing the demographics, it is noticeable that the portion of residents aged between 55 to 74 has increased by 1.9 per cent of the total residents.

The Entrance Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, The Entrance coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Avoca Beach, Bateau Bay, Berkeley Vale, Blue Bay, Chittaway Bay, Copacabana, Forresters Beach, Killarney Vale, Long Jetty, Macmasters Beach, North Avoca, Shelly Beach, Terrigal, The Entrance North, The Entrance, Toowoon Bay, Tumbi Umbi, Wamberal.

Price point

Age bracket

The Entrance, New South Wales

11


“House values could continue to increase over 2013”

Yamba, New South Wales The house market within Yamba experienced a significant price correction over 2011 and into 2012. However, the second half of 2012 has seen renewed demand enter the market with an increase in activity, resulting in the median price rising by $35,000 (9.5 per cent). If there is a sustained period of increased sales activity in 2013 (upwards of 40 house sales over a six month period) then the improved buyer sentiment should see house values continue to build upon the growth experienced at the end of 2012.

55-64

Yamba House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

200

$600,000

Age bracket

0-4

0.0%

$405,000

51

100 80

21

60 97

23

28

35

78

76

$200,000

41 40

31

109 106

107

$307,500

41

34

30

40

$300,000

38

31

24 75

69

65 51

20

53

68

54 40

48

43

36

32

34

15 31

$100,000

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

10yr growth rate

House Median Price

$250,000

$367,500

$445,000

$405,000

4.9%

2.0%

-9.0%

Unit Median Price

$266,250

$322,500

$362,000

$307,500

1.5%

-0.9%

-15.1%

House Sales

97

106

34

39

-8.7%

-18.1%

14.7%

Unit Sales

58

48

16

22

-9.2%

-14.4%

37.5%

At least $700,000

7%

$600,000 to $699,999

3%

$500,000 to $599,999

9%

$400,000 to $499,999

2010 DEC

8%

21%

6%

17%

47%

7%

15%

5%

$600,000 to $699,999

13%

$500,000 to $599,999

18%

31%

6%

18%

35%

6%

$100,000 to $199,999

3%

2009 DEC At least $700,000

15%

33%

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

Yamba Unit Price Points 2012 DEC

6%

24%

$200,000 to $299,999

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

13%

5%

5%

5%

$400,000 to $499,999

10%

10%

6%

15%

24%

19%

48%

37%

$100,000 to $199,999

5%

2011 DEC

8%

7%

$200,000 to $299,999

10%

2010 DEC

10%

$300,000 to $399,999

33%

39

9%

44%

13%

7%

19%

36%

41%

8%

5%

Half year period

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

$0

2002 DEC

0

14.0%

2012 DEC

$300,000 to $399,999

22 16

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Portion of total residents

2011 DEC

Price point

58

6.0%

2007 DEC

Yamba House Price Points Median sale price

Number of sales

120

$400,000

4.0%

2002 DEC

2009 DEC

48

2.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

$500,000

59

25-34

5-14

160 66

35-44

15-19

180

140

45-54

20-24

It is interesting to note that there are 2.7 per cent less residents within Yamba between the ages of 35 to 64. Over the past five years significant changes to local industry have made employment within the region harder to sustain, with many residents leaving Yamba in search for work in other regions.

2011

65-74

Contrary to the house market which has appeared to have lifted of the bottom of the property cycle, the unit market has experienced a substantial fall in the median unit price (down 28.5 per cent in six months). Where typically the majority of unit sales occur within the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket, over the December six month period 41 per cent took place in the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket.

2006

84+ 75-84

The majority of house sales occur within the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket with 33 per cent of total house sales. Over the past two years the number of houses that have transacted for above $700,000 has increased to account to 15 per cent of sales, up from 7 per cent in 2009.

10

Yamba Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, Yamba coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Yamba and Angourie.

Price point

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

12


Queensland Beach Towns

13


“Large increase of retirees to the population”

Since 2008 the median house price has fluctuated substantially, with the beginning of every year experiencing a rapid increase, followed by the second half of the year declining swiftly. However, for the second half of 2012, the median house price has continued to increase at a steep rate, experiencing growth of 24.8 per cent over 2012.

Approximately 16 per cent of total house sales during the December 2012 six month period sold above $700,000.

The unit market has typically fluctuated over the past decade subjective to new product being released on to the market. For this reason, the median unit price has swayed by as large as $400,000 in 2008.

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

5-14 0-4

There has been a large shift in the portion of residents aged between 25-34, falling of 3.9 per cent over the past five years to amount to 10 per cent of total residents. Meanwhile the portion of retirees of total residents has swelled to 10.6 per cent, up from 7.0 per cent from five years prior.

House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

140

$700,000

120

$600,000

0.0%

4.0%

80

$400,000 59

60

$300,000 34 55

$293,750

31

24

33

40

26

31

31 15

38

46 37 22

22

28

27 16

11

21

21

11

15

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

House Median Price

$190,000

$407,500

$348,500

$435,000

Unit Median Price

$280,000

$320,000

$285,000

$293,750

House Sales

38

34

26

Unit Sales

59

31

24

17

24

26

21

20

16

20

26

2010 DEC

2011 DEC

$100,000

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

$0

2003 DEC

1yr growth

8.6%

1.3%

24.8%

0.5%

-1.7%

3.1%

19

-6.7%

-11.0%

-26.9%

18

-11.2%

-10.3%

-25.0%

Agnes Water Unit Price Points 2009 DEC

2012 DEC

16%

At least $700,000

$600,000 to $699,999

5%

$600,000 to $699,999

$500,000 to $599,999

10%

$400,000 to $499,999

13%

24%

19%

25%

11%

12%

37%

2010 DEC

5%

2011 DEC

5%

2012 DEC

4%

6%

10%

$500,000 to $599,999

5%

10%

$400,000 to $499,999

5%

8%

29%

21%

4%

38%

$200,000 to $299,999

19%

25%

31%

19%

$300,000 to $399,999

26%

23%

11%

24%

$200,000 to $299,999

37%

24%

33%

6%

21%

39%

$100,000 to $199,999

5%

0%

19%

20%

40%

$100,000 to $199,999

21%

22%

15%

60%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

5%

0%

29%

20%

28%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

12

18.0%

19

0

2002 DEC

16.0%

5yr growth rate

At least $700,000

$300,000 to $399,999

18 36

34

23

19

14.0%

$200,000

24

28 49

12.0%

2011 DEC

Price point

$435,000

8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

2007 DEC

Agnes Water House Price Points Median sale price

86

6.0%

2002 DEC

$500,000 74

20

2.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

2009 DEC

100

2011

75-84

Over the December 2009 six month period 25 per cent of total unit sales occurred for over $500,000, with every six month December period since recording a smaller portion of sales in this price segment. For the second half of 2012, only six per cent of unit sales occurred for above $500,000, while 50 per cent of sales took place for under $299,999.

Agnes Water House & Unit Sales Cycle

Number of sales

Agnes Water Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Agnes Water coastal Area comprises of the suburb of Agnes Water only.

Price point

Age bracket

Agnes Water, Queensland

14


“Declining values cease in the house market”

Units are the predominant dwelling type along the Gold Coast coastline. Unit sales have amounted to an average 80.5 per cent of total residential sales over the past decade. Since 2009 units sales has by in large subsided to less than 1,500 sales per six month period, while the median unit price has declined 13.8 per cent in two years. As at the December 2012 six month period, the median unit price was $362,250, placing Gold Coast units at the affordable price levels of 2005.

A price points analysis of units sold reveals a contraction of two per cent from units sold above $900,000 to amount to eight per cent of the unit market, and an expansion of 11 per cent for units sold less than $300,000 to amount to 31 per cent of the market.

The Gold Coast house market appears to have reached its bottom of the cycle with a phase of sustained activity at around 400 sales per six month period. The median house price has declined since early 2010, but has recently levelled off over the December 2012 six months. Early indications show buyer enquiry levels in 2013 to be higher with optimism spreading throughout the market.

Over the past five years there has been an increase of young families entering the Gold Coast, with a 1.2 per cent increase in the portion youths under the age of 14 and a 1.5 per cent increase in the number of adults aged 25 to 44.

Gold Coast House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median $700,000

2006

65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

5-14 0-4

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

1,348

1,437 2012 JUN 388

2012 DEC 402

1,268

1,428

1,305 2011 JUN 418

2011 DEC 414

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

House Median Price

$337,250

$616,250

$543,000

$527,000

4.6%

-3.1%

-2.9%

Unit Median Price

$254,000

$410,000

$380,000

$362,250

3.6%

-2.4%

-4.7%

782

756

414

402

-6.4%

-11.9%

-2.9%

3,852

3,172

1,268

1,348

-10.0%

-15.7%

6.3%

2010 DEC

2011 DEC

Gold Coast Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

At least $1,000,000

13%

$900,000 to $999,999

4%

$800,000 to $899,999

11%

5%

5%

$700,000 to $799,999

14%

2009 DEC

7%

4%

9%

8%

7%

9%

15%

14%

$500,000 to $599,999

29%

26%

21%

Less than $400,000

3%

0%

25%

32%

4%

20%

20%

8%

40%

$300,000 to $399,999

34%

60%

80%

portion of total six month sales

100%

23%

20%

9%

12%

26%

20%

0%

5%

8%

17%

28%

Less than $300,000

9%

4%

6%

9%

20%

3%

4%

7%

10%

8%

3%

4%

5%

$500,000 to $599,999

2012 DEC

12%

3%

4%

$600,000 to $699,999

2011 DEC

12%

2%

$700,000 to $799,999

$400,000 to $499,999

19%

2010 DEC

10%

$800000 to $899,999

2%

6%

18%

$400,000 to $499,999

3%

5%

$600,000 to $699,999

At least $900,000

9%

Price point

Price point

Median sale price

$0

12%

27%

27%

27%

40%

60%

31%

80%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

13

18.0%

10yr growth rate

Gold Coast House Price Points

$100,000

16.0%

2012 DEC

Unit Sales

$200,000

2010 DEC 387

2,165

2,120

1,594

1,834 2010 JUN 450

540 2009 DEC

529 2009 JUN

2,259 2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 DEC

2006 JUN

2005 DEC

2005 JUN

2004 DEC

2004 JUN

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 DEC

0

2008 JUN 487

756

764

622

659

630

683

570

596

739

880

782

1,000

2008 DEC 347

3,434

$300,000

3,172

2,767

2,735

2,598

2,625

2,000

2,573

2,970

4,320

3,972

3,852

Number of sales

3,000

14.0%

2011 DEC

$500,000

$400,000

12.0%

2007 DEC

$527,000

$362,250

8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

2002 DEC

2009 DEC

4,000

2011

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

$600,000

5,000

84+ 75-84

0.0%

House Sales

6,000

Gold Coast Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Gold Coast coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Bilinga, Bogangar, Broadbeach, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Cabarita Beach, Casuarina, Chevron Island, Coolangatta, Currumbin, Fingal Head, Hastings Point, Isle Of Capri, Kingscliff, Kirra, Main Beach, Mermaid Beach, Mermaid Waters, Miami, Palm Beach, Paradise Waters, Pottsville, Rainbow Bay, Surfers Paradise, and Tugun.

Age bracket

Gold Coast, Queensland

15


“Rising level of sales indicate an improving market”

Since the first half of 2011, there has been a revival of sales activity in the Hervey Bay Coastal Area. House sales have increased by 74.4 per cent, while unit sales improved 18.5 per cent. For the second half of 2012, the median house price maintaining its stability at $306,000, a level sustained over the past 18 months. Typically over the past four years only two per cent of house sales have occurred above $700,000, with the majority of sales transacting between $200,000 to $399,999, with an average 79 per cent of the total settled house sales. While the median unit price has decreased since the end of 2008, the second half of 2012 experienced a strong increase of 7.2 per cent, equating to a rise of $18,000 in six months. By observing the Unit Price Points chart, buyers will notice for the past two years over half the unit sales occurred within the price bracket of $200,000 to $299,999.

Hervey Bay Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Hervey Bay coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Booral, Craignish, Dundowran Beach, Eli Waters, Pialba Point, Vernon, River Heads, Scarness, Toogoom, Torquay, and Urangan. .

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64

Hervey Bay House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

83

476 2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 DEC

2005 JUN

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

$0

6.0%

8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

House Median Price

$145,000

$330,000

$305,000

$306,000

7.8%

-1.5%

0.3%

Unit Median Price

$120,000

$315,000

$284,400

$269,000

8.4%

-3.1%

-5.4%

House Sales

935

631

296

476

-6.5%

-5.5%

60.8%

Unit Sales

135

232

83

77

-5.5%

-19.8%

-7.2%

At least $800,000

2010 DEC

1%

$700,000 to $799,999

1%

1%

$600,000 to $699,999

2%

$500,000 to $599,999

1%

32%

Less than $200,000

1%

0%

20%

12%

36%

43%

3%

40%

4%

7%

38%

35%

1%

1%

6%

60%

43%

80%

$500,000 to $599,999

5%

15%

$300,000 to $399,999

100%

31%

29%

36%

9%

5%

3%

29%

3%

27%

54%

9%

20%

1%

7%

53%

2%

1%

0%

3%

10%

33%

Less than $100,000

2012 DEC 2%

5%

$400,000 to $499,999

$100,000 to $199,999

3%

2011 DEC 6%

5%

$200,000 to $299,999

35%

Portion of total six month sales

2010 DEC

4%

$600,000 to $699,999

1%

16%

46%

$200,000 to $299,999

2009 DEC At least $700,000

3%

5%

12%

Hervey Bay Unit Price Points

2012 DEC 1%

4%

5%

$400,000 to $499,999

2011 DEC

1yr growth

12%

1%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

14

18.0%

2007 DEC

$300,000 to $399,999

$50,000

0

4.0%

2002 DEC

2009 DEC

$100,000

408

296

78 303

273

457

344

472

391

65

120

77

77

101

130 119

161 450

631

725 559

530

508

534

574

527

$150,000

2.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

Price point

232 161

143

214

216

178

142

$250,000

$200,000

200

2002 DEC

0.0%

Hervey Bay House Price Points Median sale price

210

149

212 776

935

600

400

0-4

$300,000 $269,000

25-34

5-14

$306,000

800

35-44

15-19

$350,000

871

Number of sales

1,000

$400,000

135

1,200

45-54

20-24

It appears that as a result of limited employment opportunities over the past five years, Hervey Bay has experienced a marginal decline of 2.1 per cent in the portion of total adult residents aged 20 to 64. However according to Cordells, the region has an investment pipeline of close to $1 billion for infrastructure that should spur on local employment opportunities and attract further growth in resident numbers.

2011

75-84

Price point

Age bracket

Hervey Bay, Queensland

16


“Increasing number of retirees in the area”

Port Douglas, Queensland Over the past four years sales activity in the Port Douglas property market has been seasonal, with a larger number of recorded sales during the second half of the year compared to the first of the year. The unit market predominately experiencing the majority of settled sales along the coastline, amounting to an average of 84 per cent of total residential sales over the past decade.

Port Douglas Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Port Douglas coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Port Douglas and Craiglie.

84+ 2006

65-74

The median unit price has fluctuated over the past five years, but has experienced an overall diminishing trend in growth. For 2012, the median unit price fell by 8.1 per cent to $200,250. Approximately 42 per cent of the total unit sales for the December 2012 six month period occurred within the $100,000 to $199,999 price bracket, while only five per cent of sales occurred for more than $700,00 (down from 16 per cent of sale sin 2009).

55-64

Age bracket

45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24

There has been an increased level of house sales recorded over 2012 compared to the previous couple years. This improved level of sales may have assisted to halt the slide of the median house price, which has decreased an average 5.6 per cent per annum over the past five years. For the second half of 2012, the median house price increased 12 per cent ($47,500) to $442,500.

15-19

5-14 0-4

Over the past five years the portion of residents aged between 20 to 44 decreased by 4.7 per cent, while retirees aged between 65 to 74 increased 2.7 per cent.

Port Douglas House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

450

0.0%

5.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

House Median Price

$390,000

$589,500

$455,000

$442,500

1.3%

-5.6%

-2.7%

Unit Median Price

$192,000

$295,000

$218,000

$200,250

0.4%

-7.5%

-8.1%

House Sales

35

32

28

26

-2.9%

-4.1%

-7.1%

Unit Sales

273

193

101

128

-7.3%

-7.9%

26.7%

Port Douglas House Price Points $600,000

2009 DEC

350

At least $1,000,000

2010 DEC

14%

2011 DEC

10%

Port Douglas Unit Price Points 2009 DEC

2012 DEC

7%

At least $700,000

12%

$400,000

250

379 389

200

296

$300,000

273 230

223

$200,000

183 193

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

4%

8%

7%

$600,000 to $699,999

11%

4%

8%

14%

$500,000 to $599,999

11%

20

101

4%

8%

10%

7%

4%

69 21

20

28

23

39%

48%

36%

31%

$100,000

76

2012 JUN

21

28

$400,000 to $499,999

128

Less than $400,000

26

$0

2012 DEC

16

25

94

2011 DEC

32

93

2011 JUN

37

138

2009 JUN

31

2007 DEC

30

2007 JUN

41

2006 JUN

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 DEC

0

28

2006 DEC

47

2005 JUN

39

2005 DEC

49

2008 JUN

50

103

2008 DEC

95 36

$800,000 to $899,999

10%

9%

7%

$500,000 to $599,999 $400,000 to $499,999

2011 DEC

1%

7%

3%

6%

9%

$300,000 to $399,999

18%

$100,000 to $199,999

24%

5%

2%

2%

5%

4%

15%

11%

$200,000 to $299,999

2012 DEC 5%

8%

24%

7%

11%

16%

5%

27%

163

2010 JUN

172 144

2010 DEC

174 100

35

7%

$200,250

2009 DEC

150

$900,000 to $999,999

2010 DEC

16%

$600,000 to $699,999

Price point

$442,500

Price point

300

Median sale price

$500,000

Number of sales

10.0% 15.0% Portion of total residents

$700,000

400

15

2011

75-84

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

18%

0%

10%

20%

29%

40%

Less than $100,000

31%

60%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

29%

14%

0%

20%

30%

14%

40%

42%

17%

60%

8%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

17


“House market strengthens”

The much maligned Sunshine Coast market has experienced steady progress in the volume of sales activity throughout the past two years. The number of house sales has improved by 25 per cent from the trough in 2010, while unit sales have also increased, up eight per cent. The median house price had experienced a decrease of 15 per cent over 24 months, but as at the second half of 2012 increased an increase of 4.2 per cent (up $20,000) to $500,000. Over the December 2012 six month period houses normally transacted within the price range of $300,000 to $599,999, amounting to 65 per cent of the total house sales. A decreasing portion of houses transacted for more than $900,000 (down to 11 per cent). While the unit market along the Sunshine Coast has observed a slow improvement in the volume of sales transacted per six month period, the median unit price has continued its steady decline from a price peak of $405,000 in 2010 to $350,000 during the second half of 2012. This level of affordability on the Sunshine Coast has not been observed since 2004. Approximately 54 per cent of units sold during the six month period ending December 2012 occurred within the $200,000 to $399,999 price range, while eight per cent of sales took plus in the exclusive $800,000 plus range.

House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

5,000

821

793

753

832

763

1,197

999

1,064

892

1,237

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 DEC

2005 JUN

2004 DEC

2004 JUN

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

2007 DEC

Half year period

5-14 0-4

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

$300,000

$532,500

$485,000

$500,000

5.2%

-1.3%

3.1%

$239,000

$390,000

$357,500

$350,000

3.9%

-2.1%

-2.1%

1yr growth

House Sales

1,735

1349

737

854

-6.8%

-8.7%

15.9%

Unit Sales

2,419

1,820

793

821

-10.2%

-14.7%

3.5%

$800,000 to $899,999

Price point

2010 DEC

16%

13%

13%

$500,000 to $599,999

20%

17%

$400,000 to $499,999

30%

31%

11%

Less than $300,000

4%

13%

1%

At least $800,000

10%

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

5%

7%

11%

11%

15%

18%

27%

60%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

10%

$400,000 to $499,999

17%

4%

10%

9%

7%

14%

30%

7%

40%

5%

14%

23%

5%

20%

4%

5%

14%

19%

8%

3%

28%

17%

2012 DEC

9%

5%

30%

0%

2011 DEC

7%

8%

Less than $200,000

100%

2010 DEC 12%

$500,000 to $599,999

$200,000 to $299,999

21%

2%

40%

$600,000 to $699,999

$300,000 to $399,999

26%

24%

2%

20%

2009 DEC

11%

4%

8%

Sunshine Coast Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

13%

7%

6%

$600,000 to $699,999

2011 DEC

11%

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

0%

$0

2002 DEC

16

15-19

Unit Median Price

$300,000 to $399,999

854

742

737

685

672

883

972

966

835

1,449

1,349

$200,000

0

20-24

House Median Price

At least $900,000

$100,000

713

1,776

1,820

1,403

1,511 1,175

1,095

1,251 1,059

1,479 1,066

1,055

1,349

2,230 1,531 1,470

500

1,184

1,757

1,000

1,735

1,500

25-34

Sunshine Coast House Price Points

Median sale price

2,653

2,419

Number of sales

2,000

35-44

5yr growth rate

$500,000

$300,000

45-54

10yr growth rate

$500,000

2,500

55-64

2012 DEC

4,000

$350,000

65-74

2011 DEC

2009 DEC

3,000

2011

2007 DEC

4,500

$400,000

2006

2002 DEC

$600,000

3,500

84+ 75-84

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

The Sunshine Coast has experienced a contraction of 2.2 per cent in the portion of residents aged five to 54 years, while the portion of residents aged between 55 to 74 increased by 2.0 per cent.

Sunshine Coast House & Unit Sales Cycle

Sunshine Coast Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Port Douglas coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Alexandra Headland, Battery Hill, Bokarina, Buddina, Caloundra, Castaways Beach, Coolum Beach, Currimundi, Dicky Beach, Golden Beach, Kings Beach, Little Cove, Marcoola, Marcus Beach, Maroochydore, Minyama, Moffat Beach, Mooloolaba, Mount Coolum, Mudjimba, Munna Point, Noosa Heads, Noosaville, Pelican Waters, Peregian Beach, South Peregian Beach, Point Arkwright, Shelly Beach, Sunrise Beach, Sunshine Beach, Twin Waters, Warana, Wurtulla, and Yaroomba.

Price point

Age bracket

Sunshine Coast, Queensland

29%

25%

8%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

18


“Affordability is prominent in the Whitsundays”

Over the past couple years the Whitsunday house market has observed seasonal fluctuations in sales activity, with the second halves of the two years having achieved a larger volume of sales then the fist halves of the year. Activity in the house market overall is slowly increasing to levels experienced during the stimulus driven period of 2009, which registered just over 70 sales per half year period. Unit sales amount to an average 57.7 per cent of all transactions over the past decade. Since 2007 activity in the unit market has significantly contracted, with the amount of sales in 2011 representing the smallest volume transacted in over a decade. From 2011 the median unit price has decreased by 21 per cent, registering $260,000 for the second half of 2012. Affordability for units within the Whitsundays is at its highest level since 2003.

2006

House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

65-74 55-64

25-34

0-4

0.0%

5.0%

10.0% 15.0% Portion of total residents

20.0%

25.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

House Median Price

$225,000

$469,000

$432,500

$434,000

6.8%

-1.5%

0.3%

Unit Median Price

$160,000

$375,000

$280,000

$260,000

5.0%

-7.1%

-7.1%

1yr growth

House Sales

101

95

64

69

-3.7%

-6.2%

7.8%

Unit Sales

118

182

43

53

-7.7%

-21.9%

23.3%

Whitsundays House Price Points 2009 DEC

2010 DEC

2011 DEC

Whitsundays Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

2009 DEC

2010 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

$500,000 11%

7%

11%

At least $700,000

4%

10%

7%

12%

17%

200

199 139 155

118

189 182

163

159 115

$300,000 $260,000

126

93 87

100

99

$200,000

71

68 73

101 104 100 89

97

94 101 87 101 93

95 59

63

71

76 41

43

53 51

40 59

48

$100,000 64

56

69

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

$0

2002 DEC

7%

$500,000 to $599,999

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

5%

14%

$400,000 to $499,999 $300,000 to $399,999

14%

$200,000 to $299,999

1%

5%

24%

53%

11%

31%

30%

2%

3%

$600,000 to $699,999

6%

25%

41%

32%

$100,000 to $199,999

30%

20%

40%

4%

$500,000 to $599,999

60%

80%

100%

7%

7%

9%

41%

24%

$100,000 to 2% $199,999

Portion of total six month sales

5%

7%

13%

$200,000 to $299,999

3%

3%

5%

$400,000 to $499,999 $300,000 to $399,999

30%

1%

0%

0

Half year period

$600,000 to $699,999

Price point

$400,000 209

Median sale price

$434,000

250

50

35-44

5-14

At least $700,000

150

45-54

15-19

$600,000

300

2011

20-24

When observing the demographics of the Whitsundays coastal Area, a large increase has occurred for children up to four years of age, increasing by two per cent of the total residential population. While young adults aged 20-24 has contracted down to 7.4 per cent, (decrease of three per cent). It appears that the affordability of this coastal market has attracted many fly in fly out miners to base their young families in the Whitsundays.

350

Number of sales

84+ 75-84

While the majority of unit sales transact for $299,999 or less (at 68 per cent), there has been a revival of activity for above $700,000 over the second half of 2012, amounting to 17 per cent of total sales. This is up from seven per cent recorded two years prior.

Whitsundays House & Unit Sales Cycle

17

Whitsundays Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Whitsundays coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Cannonvale, Airlie Beach, Jubilee Pocket, Mandalay and Flametree.

Price point

Age bracket

Whitsundays, Queensland

0%

37%

26%

12%

9%

35%

40%

9%

43%

23%

20%

6%

25%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

19


“House market recovery underway”

Detached houses have been the predominant dwelling type to have transacted over the past decade, amounting to an average 78.4 per cent of total residential sales. The second half of 2011 and over 2012 have seen an improved level of house sales, up 36 per cent from 2010. Improved demand in the house market has assisted in pushing the median house price higher. From the trough experienced during the June 2009 six month period, the median house price has increased 9.9 per cent ($36,500). Approximately 66 per cent of sales occur within the $300,000 to $499,999 price segment, while three per cent of total house sales transact for at least $800,000.

Yeppoon Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Yeppoon coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Barlows Hill, Cooee Bay, Lammermoor, Pacific Heights, Rosslyn, Taranganba and Yeppoon.

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64

Activity in the Yeppoon Coastal Area has fluctuated over the past decade depending on the release of new product. During the period of low interest rates and increased government spending of 2009, unit sales in Yeppoon flourished, registering 133 sales for the year. Since 2009, activity has diminished to an average of 63 sales per annum.

45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

Similar to the contraction of unit activity since 2009, the median unit price has rapidly decreased to $249,000, equating to a fall of 33.2 per cent ($123,500) in two years. A large reason why the median has subsided during this period has been the dwindling amount of sales for above $500,000. The second half of 2012 recorded no sales above $500,000, with only four per cent of house sales in the $400,000 to $499,999 price bracket, while 43 per cent of transactions occurred in the $200,000 to $299,999 bracket.

5-14 0-4

0.0%

Yeppoon House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

400

$500,000

78

5yr growth rate

House Median Price

$172,000

$430,000

$410,000

$406,500

9.0%

-1.1%

-0.9%

Unit Median Price

$168,000

$340,000

$292,000

$249,000

4.0%

-6.0%

-14.7%

House Sales

242

207

146

136

-5.6%

-8.1%

-6.8%

Unit Sales

50

72

28

23

-7.5%

-20.4%

-17.9%

23

28

36

26

$200,000

136

146

$150,000

135

101

108

43 149 100

127

119

50

32

60 23

46 207

118

210

259

218

228

192

173

100

173

266

268

150

11%

$50,000

15%

43%

0%

13%

32%

19%

20%

8%

3%

40%

60%

1%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

$600,000 to $699,999

100%

3%

3%

$500,000 to $599,999

9%

5%

$400,000 to $499,999

16%

7%

18%

16%

$200,000 to $299,999

13%

2012 DEC

1%

$300,000 to $399,999

34%

2011 DEC

8%

$700,000 to $799,999

3%

36%

2010 DEC

At least $800,000

1%

3%

30%

2%

2009 DEC

2012 DEC

16%

25%

42%

Less than $200,000

3%

8%

22%

1%

1yr growth

Yeppoon Unit Price Points 3%

1%

4%

$400,000 to $499,999

2011 DEC 3%

2%

$500,000 to $599,999

$200,000 to $299,999

2010 DEC

2%

$600,000 to $699,999

$100,000

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

1%

$700,000 to $799,999

$300,000 to $399,999

$0

2002 DEC

0

At least $800,000

Price point

73

$250,000 $249,000

16.0%

10yr growth rate

Yeppoon House Price Points Median sale price

72

91 41

48 30

43

37

$300,000

14.0%

2012 DEC

2009 DEC

60

66 50

200

242

Number of sales

250

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Portion of total residents

2011 DEC

$400,000 $350,000

6.0%

2007 DEC

$406,500

300

4.0%

2002 DEC

$450,000

350

2.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

Over the past five years there has been no noticeable shift in the demographics of the Yeppoon Area.

2011

75-84

Price point

Age bracket

Yeppoon, Queensland

25%

34%

Less than $200,000

39%

22%

20%

7%

32%

16%

14%

0%

9%

40%

30%

43%

14%

60%

22%

80%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

18

4%

20


South Australian Beach Towns

21


“Increasing number of retirees have entered the area”

This popular South Australian surfing locality has recently experienced a period of consolidation after observing continual growth in the median house price over the past decade of 6.4 per cent per annum. During 2012 the median house price softened two per cent to $323,500, while activity softened 11.6 per cent. The majority of activity in the house market has occurred in the $200,000 to $399,999 price segment, amounting to 68 per cent of total sales. The portion of houses sold for less than $200,000 has increased to amount to six per cent (from three per cent) from the previous year, while sales for above $800,000 have contracted to two per cent (down from four per cent). The unit market is still emerging and only amounts to an average 6.8 per cent of total sales within the Area. During the December 2012 six month period the median unit price decreased to $210,000, equating to a reduction of 12.5 per cent in 12 months.

Fleurieu Peninsula Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Fleurieu Peninsula coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Coorong, Encounter Bay, Goolwa Beach, Goolwa North, Goolwa South, Goolwa, Hayborough, Mccracken, Middleton, Port Elliot, Victor Harbor, and Waitpinga.

House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

600

2011

75-84 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

This coastal area has experienced a significant increase in the portion of residents aged over 55 years, growing by 4.9 per cent to know account to just over 50 per cent of the total residents in the area. The portion of residents aged under 54 years has declined by 4.9 per cent to now amount to less than half of the total residents.

Fleurieu Peninsula House & Unit Sales Cycle

2006

84+

Age bracket

Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia

5-14 0-4

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Portion of total residents

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

House Median Price

$173,500

$285,000

$330,000

$323,500

6.4%

2.6%

-2.0%

Unit Median Price

$195,000

$213,000

$240,000

$210,000

0.7%

-0.3%

-12.5%

House Sales

240

445

233

206

-1.5%

-14.3%

-11.6%

Unit Sales

11

37

19

19

5.6%

-12.5%

0.0%

$400,000

Fleurieu Peninsula House Price Points

Fleurieu Peninsula Unit Price Points

19 206

233

220

193

$50,000

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 DEC

2005 JUN

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

3%

$700,000 to $799,999

1%

$600,000 to $699,999 $500,000 to $599,999

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

3%

39%

4%

0%

20%

40%

5%

33%

3%

60%

11%

$400,000 to $499,999

8%

3%

13%

34%

$200,000 to $299,999

38%

34%

$100,000 to $199,999

80%

5%

33%

6%

0%

11%

14%

34%

Less than $100,000

100%

2012 DEC

3%

12%

6%

2011 DEC 5%

$500,000 to 0% 3% $599,999

$300,000 to $399,999

Portion of total six month sales

2010 DEC

3%

$600,000 to $699,999

5%

39%

30%

3%

2%

12%

35%

At least $700,000

1%

4%

14%

33%

Less than $200,000

4%

3%

2009 DEC

2012 DEC

1%

9%

10%

$300,000 to $399,999

2011 DEC

2%

4%

$400,000 to $499,999

2010 DEC 4%

4%

$200,000 to $299,999

$0

2002 DEC

At least $800,000

Price point

19 309

14

391

256

362

401

17

19

472

445

433 344

293

233

$100,000

0

20

$150,000

Price point

36

$210,000

Median sale price

32 16

$250,000

$200,000

14

12

15

10 215

237

222

240

254

325

200

100

33

32

37

$300,000

30

17 19

300

2009 DEC

$323,500

400

11

Number of sales

38

500

27

$350,000

16%

5%

47%

39%

32%

21%

3%

20%

5%

26%

16%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

22


Victorian Beach Towns

23


“A consistently increasing median house price”

This coastal market has seen a consistently increasing median house price over the past decade, growing by 5.9 per cent per annum. For the six month period ending December 2012, the median house price registered was $570,000, culminating from 153 settled sales. During this period, there were a balance of house sales that occurred across the various price points, with the slight majority taking place in the $500,000 to $599,999 price bracket, registering 35 per cent of total sales. Only five per cent of house sales occurred for above $900,000, equating to a fall from 13 per cent of total sales in 2010.

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

5-14 0-4

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

There has been a noticeable increase of youths in the population aged under 15 years old, rising 1.6 per cent of the total population over the past five years. At the same time, young adult aged 25 to 34 declined by 2.1 per cent.

Bells Beach House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

500

$700,000

69

5yr growth rate

House Median Price

$321,000

$452,500

$590,000

$570,000

5.9%

4.7%

-3.4%

Unit Median Price

$275,000

$385,000

$440,000

$505,000

6.3%

5.6%

14.8%

House Sales

246

320

229

153

-4.6%

-13.7%

-33.2%

Unit Sales

39

71

39

20

-6.5%

-22.4%

-48.7%

Bells Beach House Price Points

20 153

229

224

249

199

309

297

$200,000

Price point

39 40

24

49

55 38 163

227

320

275

364 252

239

281

234

297

241

100

227

279

246

150

2009 DEC

Median sale price

94

88

71 56

66

43

200

$300,000

At least $900,000

6%

$800,000 to $899,999

3%

$700,000 to $799,999

50 0

Less than $300,000

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 DEC

$0

2%

9%

14%

12%

27%

27%

16%

11%

4%

4%

40%

35%

17%

7%

10%

20%

20%

60%

$700,000 to $799,999

2%

2%

23%

15%

6%

$300,000 to $399,999

24%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

Less than $300,000

3%

100%

5%

8%

18%

18%

10%

20%

40%

15%

18%

25%

18%

20%

35%

15%

0%

5%

10%

18%

14%

2012 DEC 3%

5%

$600,000 to $699,999

$500,000 to $599,999

2011 DEC

6%

2%

$400,000 to $499,999

4%

2010 DEC

2%

$800,000 to $899,999

10%

19%

30%

2009 DEC At least $900,000

5%

6%

14%

1yr growth

Bells Beach Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

7%

23%

0%

2011 DEC

13%

13%

$500,000 to $599,999

$300,000 to $399,999

2010 DEC

7%

$600,000 to $699,999

$400,000 to $499,999

$100,000

38%

20%

10%

3%

60%

80%

5%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

22

18.0%

10yr growth rate

$500,000

53

68

47 54

40 36

39

250

16.0%

2012 DEC

$570,000

$400,000

14.0%

2011 DEC

$505,000

300

12.0%

2007 DEC

$600,000

350

8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

2002 DEC

450 400

6.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

Price point

2011

75-84

The smaller unit market reached a peak of sales activity during the second half of 2009 and first half of 2010. Since this period, sales have subdued in the coastal area over every six month period. The second half of 2012 recorded the least amount of unit sales for a six month period in over a decade, recording just 20 transactions. During the past decade, the median unit price has fluctuated, but the overall trend displayed is one of long term growth. If an investor purchased a unit during 2002 for the median price of $275,000, and sold the unit 10 years later at the median price of $505,000, an annual growth rate of 6.3 per cent per annum would have been realised.

Number of sales

Bells Beach Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Bells Beach coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Moggs Creek, Aireys Inlet, Anglesea, Torquay, Jan Juc, Bells Beach and Fairhaven.

Age bracket

Bells Beach, Victoria

24


“2012 could have been the turning point for recovery”

Lakes Entrance, Victoria

The Lakes Entrance house market has experienced a level of subdued sales since 2010, declining from a peak of 87 sales during the June 2010 six month period. However, 2012 has observed the house market reach a possible bottom of the trough the markets property cycle. Activity has improved slightly and the median house price, which had plummeted 22 per cent from 2010, has ceased its fall to rise by $10,000 (4.2 per cent) in just six months.

Lakes Entrance Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Lakes Entrance coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Kalimna, Lakes Entrance and Lake Tyres Beach.

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64

Surprisingly, the December 2011 six month period observed eight per cent of it’s total house sales selling for above $600,000, assisting the median house price during this period to a peak at $295,000. This level of high priced sales has not occurred in such volume over the past five years, as it had during that December 2011 period. A year later and the majority of sales have consolidated around the $200,000 to $399,999 price range, with 67 per cent of the total sales.

Of the 17 unit sales which occurred during the second half of 2012, there was an even balance that took pace between the price points, with almost a quarter of the sales being recorded at each $100,000 bracket.

The Lakes Entrance coastal Area is experiencing a smaller portion of its total residents under the age of 20, while increasing its portion of residents aged 55 to 74.

Lakes Entrance House & Unit Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

250

$350,000

45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24

The unit market has averaged almost a quarter of the total residential sales within the Lakes Entrance coastal market over the past decade. Due to the limited number of unit sales recorded, PRDnationwide Research is unable to produce a reputable median price. PRDnationwide Research requires a minimum of 20 sales per six month to justify the median price produced.

15-19

5-14 0-4

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

House Median Price

$149,500

$250,000

$295,000

$250,000

Unit Median Price

$120,500

$242,000

$215,600

$145,000

House Sales

125

69

38

Unit Sales

31

18

12

Lakes Entrance House Price Points 2009 DEC At least $700,000

$250,000

31 34

21 100

39

24

125

22 20

134

69

79

87 55

69

69

85

$145,000

20 17

20 98

60

27

18

28

108

50

26

20

27

$150,000

76

76

27

12

87 61

52

$100,000

51

38

9

17

47

39

$50,000

23

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2007 JUN

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

5.3%

0.0%

-15.3%

1.9%

-9.7%

-32.7%

39

-11.0%

-10.8%

2.6%

17

-5.8%

-1.1%

41.7%

Lakes Entrance Unit Price Points

2%

8%

$300,000 to $399,999

26%

$200,000 to $299,999

3%

3%

8%

32%

57%

$400,000 to $499,999

5%

$300,000 to $399,999

45%

$200,000 to $299,999

28%

32%

2012 DEC

13%

1%

18%

2%

20%

40%

35%

29%

25%

35%

18%

33%

24%

35%

33%

29%

21%

Less than $100,000

3%

60%

8%

38%

$100,000 to 5% $199,999 12%

0%

2011 DEC

6%

3%

8%

21%

47%

$100,000 to $199,999

2010 DEC

At least $700,000

5%

4%

$400,000 to $499,999

2009 DEC

2012 DEC

3%

1%

$500,000 to $599,999

Less than $100,000

$0

2002 DEC

0

2011 DEC

2%

$600,000 to $699,999

Price point

$200,000

Median sale price

Number of sales

$250,000

2010 DEC

Price point

200

150

12.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

$300,000

64

2011

75-84

Age bracket

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

10%

0%

20%

24%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

25


“A growing population of retirees”

There has been a significant changed in the age of residents within the 90 Mile Beach Coastal Area. The portion of residents aged 65 to 84 has increased by a substantial nine per cent, while youths aged between 5 to 14 have decreased by two per cent. In effect, the Area has welcomed more retirees to reside over the past five years. Sales activity has fluctuated over the past decade, with typically the first half of the year recording more sales than the second half. Arguably, the 2008 to 2009 period represented the trough of the market cycle for the Area and while 2011 has observed a higher level of sales, the market has contracted once again during the second half of 2012. it is anticipated that as the market is seasonal, investors should observe more activity in the first half of 2013.

For the purposes of this analysis, the 90 Mile Beach coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Glomar Beach, Golden Beach, Paradise Beach and The Honeysuckles.

90 Mile Beach Age Pyramid 84+ 2006

Due to the small level of settled sales per six month period, the median house price has fluctuated over the past decade, reaching a peak during the first half of 2009, at $170,000, then decreasing to $108,000, only to surge back to $156,000 as at the second half of 2012. Looking longer-term, the median house price has increased 7.6 per cent per annum over the past decade.

2011

75-84 65-74 55-64

Age bracket

90 Mile Beach, Victoria

45-54 35-44

25-34 20-24 15-19 5-14 0-4 0%

5%

10%

15% 20% Portion of total residents

25%

30%

35%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

House Median Price

90 Mile Beach House Sales Cycle 50

House Sales

2012 DEC

$75,000

$138,000

$102,000

$156,000

7.6%

2.5%

52.9%

24

29

24

16

-4.0%

-11.2%

-33.3%

90 Mile Beach House Price Points

$160,000

$156,000 40

1yr growth

2011 DEC

Median

45

5yr growth rate

2007 DEC

$180,000

Number of sales

10yr growth rate

2002 DEC

Less than $100,000 $200,000 to $299,999

$100,000 to $199,999 $300,000 to $399,999

$140,000 2012 DEC

31%

44%

25%

30 $100,000

25 $80,000 20 $60,000

Price point

Number of sales

$120,000

Median sale price

35

2011 DEC

50%

2010 DEC

29%

44%

21%

44%

13%

15 $40,000

10

2009 DEC

5

$20,000

0

$0

8%

25

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 DEC

2005 JUN

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 DEC

0%

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

58%

20%

40%

25%

60%

80%

8%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

26


Western Australian Beach Towns

27


“Units provide value through affordability”

Similar to the majority of most coastal regions across Australia, the Broome Coastal Area has recorded less settled residential sales since 2007. However, the bottom of the market cycle appears to have passed during the first half of 2011, with activity strengthening during the second half of 2011 and over 2012.

After experiencing a major median house price increase during 2007, the rate of growth within the Broome Area has subsided. For the second half of 2012, the median house price recorded was $670,000, equating to a long-term growth rate of 9.2 per cent per annum over the past decade. When comparing the median house price against the median unit price, the value in the affordability of unit stock becomes apparent. During 2002 there was just under $100,000 difference between the house and unit median prices, while the gap has expanded over the decade to $280,000.

Broome Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Broome coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Bilingurr, Djungun, Cable Beach, Broome and Minyirr.

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64

The Broome Area unit market has receded significantly since 2007, but an improved market during 2012 might have given a boost to buyer confidence.

There has been no major change to the age structure of Broome residents.

Broome House Sales Cycle House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

300

45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24

Seven per cent of house sales which occurred during the second half of 2012 took place for over $1,000,000. This segment of the market has contracted over the past four years, down from 11 per cent. The house market appears to be consolidating at the $500,000 to $799,999 price segment, which now amounts to 69 per cent of total house sales.

15-19

5-14 0-4

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

House Median Price

$279,125

$688,000

$725,000

$670,000

9.2%

-0.5%

-7.6%

Unit Median Price

$185,500

$420,000

$430,000

$390,000

7.7%

-1.5%

-9.3%

House Sales

108

56

51

61

-5.6%

1.7%

19.6%

Unit Sales

56

67

23

32

-5.4%

-13.7%

39.1%

$800,000

At least $1,000,000

129 74

150

$400,000

100

56

$390,000

75

52

82

57

100

$300,000 51

45 108

122

67 21

115 94 60

73

88

87

79

73

15 56 35

48

32 20

23

13 11 44

52

47

53

35

22

51

61

$100,000

23

2012 JUN

2012 DEC

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 JUN

2010 DEC

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

$0

2002 DEC

0

2%

$800,000 to $899,999

14%

6%

17%

19%

32%

$400,000 to $499,999

13%

11%

20%

21%

22%

26%

31%

12%

2010 DEC

8%

9%

9%

31%

4%

$400,000 to $499,999

4%

27%

$300,000 to $399,999

19%

8%

$200,000 to $299,999

6%

9%

22%

23%

21%

2012 DEC

6%

$600,000 to $699,999 $500,000 to $599,999

2011 DEC

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

6%

14%

11%

$500,000 to $599,999

2009 DEC At least $800,000

7%

16%

17%

$600,000 to $699,999

2012 DEC

12%

3%

$700,000 to $799,999

Broome Unit Price Points

2011 DEC

45%

9%

19%

22%

39%

16%

31%

$200,000

24 46

11%

$900,000 to $999,999

Price point

$500,000

Median sale price

$600,000 200

2010 DEC

Price point

2009 DEC

$670,000

250

Number of sales

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Portion of total residents

2002 DEC

Broome House Price Points

26

6.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

$700,000

50

2011

75-84

Age bracket

Broome, Western Australia

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Less than $400,000

3%

0%

20%

6%

12%

2%

40%

Less than $200,000

5%

60%

80%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

9%

4%

4%

0%

20%

13%

6%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

28


“Activity increased over 2012”

2012 has observed an increased level of sales from the previous year, which registered the lowest number of settled sales in a six month period for over a decade. However, the strengthening level of sales has not prevented the median price from continuing its decline over the year, (softening by 1.1 per cent) to $435,000.

House sales that transacted for above $800,000 use to amount to almost 16 per cent of total sales during 2009. As at the second half of 2012, this segment of the market amounted to 6.3 per cent. The majority of sales occurred within the $400,000 to $499,999 price bracket, with 32.3 per cent of the total sales. Sales for less than $299,999 continues to contract, decreasing from 13.5 per cent in 2011 to 7.1 per cent of total sales.

Busselton Age Pyramid

For the purposes of this analysis, the Dunsborough to Busselton coastal Area comprises of the suburbs of Abbey, Anniebrook, Broadwater, Busselton, Dunsborough, Geographe, Kealy, Marybrook, Quindalup, West Busselton and Wonnerup .

84+ 2006

65-74 55-64

The Coastal Area has recorded three consecutive six month periods of increasing unit sales, up from the bottom of the market experienced during the first half of 2011 by 358 per cent. While the majority of unit sales took place within the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket (at 42 per cent) during the December 2012 six month period, seven per cent of sales occurred for over $700,000. This amounts to an increase from three per cent registered during the previous year.

45-54 35-44 25-34 20-24 15-19

5-14 0-4

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

House Sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

800

14.0%

16.0%

2002 DEC

2007 DEC

2011 DEC

2012 DEC

10yr growth rate

5yr growth rate

1yr growth

House Median Price

$185,000

$525,000

$440,000

$435,000

8.9%

-3.7%

-1.1%

Unit Median Price

$160,500

$367,000

$380,000

$355,000

8.3%

-0.7%

-6.6%

House Sales

319

259

178

269

-1.7%

0.8%

51.1%

Unit Sales

66

78

33

55

-1.8%

-6.7%

66.7%

$600,000

Busselton House Price Points 700

2009 DEC

269

33 178

265

43 12 129

156

55

49

55 46 278

248

217

148

48 274

259

169

100

33

59

78

79

99 443 266

347

336

320

361

319

365

581

200

$200,000

Busselton Unit Price Points

2012 DEC

2012 DEC

2012 JUN

2011 DEC

2011 JUN

2010 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 DEC

2009 JUN

2008 DEC

2008 JUN

2007 DEC

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 DEC

$600,000 to $699,999

5.8%

6.8%

$500,000 to $599,999

2009 DEC

32.1%

25.2%

$200,000 to $299,999

4.7%

Less than $200,000

1.4%

6.3%

32.3%

27.0%

28.3%

10.7%

6.3%

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

2.6%

20%

40%

2.8%

60%

Portion of total six month sales

100%

2011 DEC

14%

2%

$500,000 to $599,999

9%

15%

$300,000 to $399,999

29%

26%

9%

20%

4%

9%

15%

24%

42%

30%

27%

15%

0%

4%

18%

33%

Less than $200,000

2%

9%

5%

24%

7%

2%

7%

$400,000 to $499,999

2012 DEC

3%

4%

$200,000 to $299,999 0.7%

80%

$600,000 to $699,999

2010 DEC

4%

$700,000 to $799,999

14.1%

25.8%

At least $800,000

5.6%

15.2%

26.3%

2.6%

6.3%

6.2%

12.8%

22.3%

$300,000 to $399,999

2.2%

8.3%

17.3%

$400,000 to $499,999

10.1%

$100,000

$0

2003 JUN

9.6%

6.5%

0%

0

2002 DEC

15.8%

$700,000 to $799,999

price point

95 74

$300,000

56

87

74

76 66

$355,000

Median sale price

$400,000 500

300

2011 DEC

Price point

118

At least $800,000

$435,000

400

2010 DEC

$500,000

600

Number of sales

12.0%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

Busselton House Sales Cycle

27

6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Portion of total residents

There is now 3.1 per cent less residents aged 5 to 54 than from five years prior, while the amount of residents aged over 54 has increased by 2.6 per cent of the total portion of residents in the Area.

2011

75-84

Age bracket

Dunsborough to Busselton, Western Australia

5%

40%

60%

6%

80%

100%

Portion of total six month sales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

29


Disclaimer The opinions, estimates and information given herein or otherwise in relation hereto are made by PRDnationwide and affiliated companies in their best judgement, in good faith and as far as possible based on data or sources which are believed to be reliable. The material contained herein is not intended to substitute for obtaining individual advice from PRDnationwide or another advisor able to provide the services of a qualified professional person. PRDnationwide, its officers, employees and agents expressly disclaim any liability and responsibility to any person whether a reader of this publication or not in respect of anything and of the consequences of anything done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance whether wholly or partially upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. COPYRIGHT PRDnationwide 2011. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means (graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, recording taping, or information retrieval systems) without the written permission of PRDnationwide.

28

30


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Social research, including focus groups

As the first and only truly knowledge based property services company, PRDnationwide shares experience and knowledge to deliver innovative and effective solutions to our clients. We have a unique approach that integrates people, experience, systems and technology to create meaningful business connections We focus on understanding new issues impacting the property industry; such as the environment and sustainability, the economy, demographic and psychographic shifts, commercial and residential design; and forecast future implications around such issues based on historical data and fact.

Skilled in deriving macro and micro quantitative information from multiple credible sources, we partner with clients to provide strategic advice and direction regarding property and market performance. We have the added advantage of sourcing valuable and factual qualitative market research in order to ensure our solutions are the most well considered and financially viable . Our experts are highly sought after consultants for both corporate and government bodies and their advice has helped steer the direction of a number of property developments and secured successful outcomes for our clients.

Telephone: +61 1 3229 3344 Web: www.prdresearch.com.au

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Research Consultancy Service We set industry benchmarks when partnering with our clients to answer key questions and solve complex issues in the residential development arena. Our specialised consultancy service adds value to our clients' business by identifying the best means for gaining a competitive advantage. We have extensive experience in providing advice on virtually every type of residential property and the issues and considerations that surround them. We simplify your decision-making process by providing comprehensive information and recommendations including (but not limited to):

Our Research Reports

For more information on how we can assist you, contact (07) 3229 3344.

Property WatchÂŽ Reports: Over 130 snapshots of various areas around Australia, as well as specific reports on property topics of interest such as resale growth, infrastructure planning, luxury properties, and supply and demand.

Primary & Secondary Market Analysis

Highlight Reports: Major annual reports examining the macro and micro economic information of larger catchment areas within select city, rural, and coastal regions. Quarterly Economic and Property Report: Produced quarterly to examine economic and property trends nationally.

Product & Pricing Mix Analysis

Niche Reports: Covering topical subjects such as mixed use and transit oriented developments, marina berths, waterfront property and luxury property markets. Suburb Profiles: Detailed demographic and sales information for statistical local areas (suburbs) in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Australian Capital Territory. Residential Unit Reports: Quarterly reports based on primary research into the sale of new units within major metro and coastal cities identifying trends and opportunities

Target Market Analysis & Consumer Research

Your Property GIS Mapping & Spatial Analysis

Amenity Analysis Marketing & Launch Strategies

“We set industry benchmarks when partnering with our clients to answer key questions and solve complex issues in the residential development arena.� Telephone: +61 7 3229 3344 Web: www.prdresearch.com.au

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PRDnationwide Research - Beach Town Study 2013  

PRDnationwide Research - Beach Town Study 2013