Issuu on Google+

REGIONALVICTORIA2010 Property Research Report


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

BALLARAT

BENDIGO

maintaining a diverse economy, Bendigo is comprised of mining, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and a strong financial presence with Australia’s only provincial stock exchange

GEELONG

as the second largest city in the state of Victoria...Geelong has become a viable metropolitan option for Victorian’s moving away from the state capital

KYNETON

Kyneton is now being discovered again by a new generation of commuters, investors, families and holiday makers seeking the quintessential country lifestyle

MELTON

representing the LGA’s most established precinct, Melton and its direct neighbouring suburbs stand to reap the benefits of Melbourne’s urban sprawl

MILDURA

as the second largest LGA in Victoria, Mildura encompasses over 22,000 square kilometres with the Murray-Sunset National Park accounting for almost a third of its total area

WARRNAMBOOL

there is a changing dynamic in Warrnambool’s property market, with a variety of driving forces such as growing employment opportunity, improving amenity and an emerging tourism market

WERRIBEE

Werribee continues to emerge as one of Victoria’s top performing precincts...expect increases in the demand, supply and the value of property in this market in coming years

PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnationwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2010

existing as one of Victoria’s predominant inland LGA’s, Ballarat offers an ideal mix of modern and chic amenity... offering the lifestyle of a metropolitan region


Table of Contents Our People

2

Directors Report

3

Australian Economic Summary

4

Australian Property Overview

6

Regional Victoria

8

Regional Vic Overview (30yr Sales Cycle) Regional Vic Overview (All Ords) Population & Demographics Regional Victoria Rents 2011 Opportunities

9 10 11 12 13

Ballarat

14

Bendigo

19

Geelong

22

Kyneton

25

Melton

28

Mildura

32

Warrnambool

35

Werribee

37

Regional Victoria Suburb Summary Table

40

Our Offices

45

Ballarat LGA Central Ballarat Neighbouring Suburbs Buninyong Creswick

Greater Bendigo LGA Central Bendigo Area

Greater Geelong LGA Geelong

Macedon Ranges LGA Kyneton

Melton LGA Melton Caroline Springs

Mildura LGA Mildura

Warrnambool LGA

Wyndham LGA Werribee

15 16 17 18

20 21

23 24

26 27

29 30 31

33 34

36

38 39


Our People Dan O’Halloran – Research Analyst In 2008, Dan O’Halloran joined the PRD team in the role of Sunshine Coast Research Analyst, after completing a Bachelor of Business at the Queensland University of Technology. Building a firm understanding of the property market fundamentals, Dan worked closely with a number of the Sunshine Coast’s key developers on a range of residential projects. In 2010, Dan took an opportunity to broaden his market knowledge; turning is focus toward the unique market of regional Victoria. Through combining his market research with the power of the PRD Jens Gaunt brand, Dan O’Halloran is able to provide a point of difference to home owners and investors looking to enter the dynamic property market of regional Victoria.

Aaron Maskrey – Research Director After completing a Bachelors Degree in Commerce, majoring in International Business and Commercial Law at the University of Auckland, Aaron became interested in statistical research while working for an international firm on the gold coast. Having previous employment in a management and analysis role, Aaron brings a keen eye for statistical analysis and a drive for innovation. In 2009 Aaron’s focus broadened to the national property market as Director of Research for PRDnationwide. With an insight into economic and demographic trend analysis, Aaron’s knowledge and experience provides PRDnationwide with a unique, strategic advantage in this challenging and dynamic market.

About PRDnationwide Research PRDnationwide’s research division provides reliable, unbiased, and authoritative property research and consultancy to clients in metropolitan and regional locations across Australia. Our extensive research capability and specialised approach ensures our clients can make the most informed and financially sounds decisions about residential and commercial properties.

Our Knowledge

Our People

Access to accurate and objective research is the foundation of all good property decisions.

Our research team is made up of highly qualified researchers who focus solely on property analysis.

As the first and only truly knowledge based property services company, PRDnationwide shares experience and knowledge to deliver innovative and effective solutions to our clients. We have a unique approach that integrates people, experience, systems and technology to create meaningful business connections We focus on understanding new issues impacting the property industry; such as the environment and sustainability, the economy, demographic and psychographic shifts, commercial and residential design; and forecast future implications around such issues based on historical data and fact.

Skilled in deriving macro and micro quantitative information from multiple credible sources, we partner with clients to provide strategic advice and direction regarding property and market performance. We have the added advantage of sourcing valuable and factual qualitative market research in order to ensure our solutions are the most well considered and financially viable . Our experts are highly sought after consultants for both corporate and government bodies and their advice has helped steer the direction of a number of property developments and secured successful outcomes for our clients.


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Our People

Directors Report - Neil Jens This is an amazing time for Real Estate in Central Regional Victoria. Population growth through our key centres has been strong often exceeding 2% with new housing stock coming on to the market, struggling to meet the demand. The result is pressure on existing stock from buyers but more noticeable pressure on rental demand. Generally, in our markets 2% of managed properties being vacant is considered a healthy environment. Some offices are experiencing vacancy rates as low as 0.4% - yes 0.4%! Our opinion is that rentals will rise in the short – medium term – and return on investment with it. Currently returns of 5% - 6% (Gross income / price) is available, therefore, with some growth it now appears an amazing time to invest. State & Local government “red tape” and planning processes are compacting the problem – leading to land shortage and developers pre-selling subdivision, sometimes 6 months in advance. Many centres have experienced massive growth in land prices – in some instances over 30%, during a time when many centres around Australia and many of our sister offices in the PRD Group around the country are experiencing difficulty. When other markets around the country during the early 2000’s were growing in value – our markets remained stable – in fact, we had minimal growth over the best part of 10 years. It would appear that we are in for a period of “catch up”. In some of our markets, one can still purchase a comfortable three bedroom house for around $300,000 and in some markets considerable less. The Melbourne market has grown extraordinarily in recent years and our proximity to the City and price differential are meaning an enormous demand in some centres from Melbourne buyers. Train travel to the City from Melton (40 mins) Werribee (30mins) Geelong (45mins) Ballarat (104 mins) Kyneton (95mins) & Bendigo (100mins) makes these centres very attractive to Melbourne buyers. Combined with this, is a huge move towards the lifestyle offered in these markets. The regional centres have so much to offer now, with restaurants, recreation and schools and in some instances beautiful beaches. Warrnambool is a strong beautiful, vibrant centre with a great lifestyle and strong regional drawing power. We look forward to watching our markets grow in the coming years and hope you will enjoy being a part of it. Best regards for 2011

Neil Jens Founder, Director, CEO | PRD Jens Gaunt

Neil Jens has been Ballarat’s premier real estate agent for more than 25 years. As founder, director and CEO of Jens Gaunt, Neil has set an unprecedented standard of professionalism and dedication in the real estate industry. He has been involved in real estate for more than 30 years, establishing Ballarat’s most successful real estate company in 1986, which has become renowned for its honesty, integrity and proven track record in achieving excellent results. Responsible for many of Ballarat’s most prestigious properties at auction and private sale, Neil is a fully licensed estate agent, qualified valuer, member of the Real Estate Institute of Victoria and has been a finalist in the Victorian REIV Auctioneer of the Year Award. Neil also plays an active role in the community as Chairman of Conservation Volunteers Australia, World Chair of Conservation Volunteer Alliance and is a member of many boards and committees in Ballarat.


Australian Economic Summary Inflationary pressures set to rise in 2011

How long before rates increase?

Australian home affordability continues to fall

• The June 2010 CPI figures recorded an annual change of 3.1%, pushing inflation just above the edge of the RBA target range.

• Since the month of May the cash rate has been steady at 4.5%. This has resulted in the standard variable interest rate also remaining steady since May at 7.4%. As at October 2010, the standard variable interest rate is just above the 10 year average of 7.24%. It is interesting to note that while the standard variable interest rate remains above the 10 year average, the cash rate is well below it’s 10 year average of 6.14%.

• The Home Loan Affordability Index has continued to decrease during the June 2010 quarter, falling another 1.7 index points to register 28.9. This is despite a recent period of steady interest rates, as the RBA looks to help shift public investment into private. Property prices have also slowed in growth, which should have brought a period of respite in home loan affordability.

• The underlying inflation figure, as measured by the RBA removes volatile items such as fruit and fuel, has remained steady from the March 2009 quarter at 2.9%. • Early July figures have shown inflation figures easing to 2.8%. Economist believes that a rise in inflation would have caused a likely election campaign increase in interest rates. • A recent AMP Capital study has found spending habits have softened as 41% of 1,000 people surveyed prefer to reduce their debt, providing further evidence of easing inflation figures. • According to the ABS inflationary pressure is currently low, despite increasing levels of wages, led by the resurgence in the mining sector. However, inflation is likely to increase middle of next year due to wages, resulting in possible increases to the cash rate.

• With the exception of Tasmania and the Northern Territory, all states experienced a decrease in affordability during the quarter ending June 2010. New South Wales decreased the most by 2.7 index points, followed by South Australia, decreasing by 1.9 index points and Victoria by 1.4 index points.

• During the recent period of a steady cash rate, the RBA have announced one of their main tasks is to aid the shift from public to private investment. Investment to business related property, industrial, and retail sectors has remained weak, however investment in mining and office space has improved.

• On average, Australian households now need approximately 34.6% of the family income to service their home loan. New South Wales continued to be the least affordable state, with households requiring 38% of the family income to service their home loan, equating to 3.4% above the national average.

• Recent figures have shown that consumer sentiment has fallen, while retail expenditure and housing construction has slowed, increasing the pressure for the RBA to prevent a further rise to the cash rate during October. According to some economists, the cash rate could be left untouched through to January, welcomed news indeed for home owners. However, Treasury Secretary Ken Henry hinted that a raise in the cash rate could occur sooner with the economy approaching full capacity.

• The RBA has expressed that interest rates will need to rise to counter an economy that is expect to expand faster than usual next year.

Inflation

• Queensland families require approximately 34.1% of the average family income to service the average home loan, while Victoria requires 34.2%. ACT requires the least amount, with 18% of the average income.

Home Loan Affordability Index 80.0

8% Excluding volatile items

NSW

Vic

Qld

6%

Reserve Bank's Target Range

2%

0%

Annual Change Annual Changein inCPI CPI

4%

70.0

Improving Affordability

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS Cat 6401, last updated Sept-2010

Jun-10

Jun-09

Jun-08

Jun-07

Jun-06

Jun-05

Jun-04

Jun-03

Jun-02

Jun-01

Jun-00

Jun-99

Jun-98

Jun-97

Jun-96

Jun-95

Jun-94

Jun-93

Jun-92

Jun-91

Jun-90

Jun-89

Jun-88

Jun-87

Jun-86

Jun-85

Jun-84

Jun-83

Jun-82

Jun-81

20.0 Jun-80

Jun-10

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-00

Dec-00

-2%

Quarter Quarter

IndexValue value Index

All groups

Quarter

Quarter

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: REIA / Deposit Power, last updated Sep- 10


REGIONALVICTORIA2010 • According to the REIA, the proportion of family income needed to meet the average rental payment has increased during the June 2010 quarter to 25.1%.

Australian Economic Summary • For the month of September 2010, the nation’s lowest rate of unemployment rests with ACT at 2.6%, while South Australia has the highest rate of unemployment at 5.5%. Tasmania experienced the largest decrease from August, falling by 14%, while Victoria decreased by 1% to register 5.4% and the ACT decreased by 1% to register 3.4%.

• However, this is still below the median market forecasted, with the RBA increasing the cash rate between October 2009 to May 2010. This was the main factor in the slowing of commencements.

• First home buyer participation has decreased by 2.1% to 16.3% during the June quarter, which equates to the lowest participation rate since June 2005.

Private investors hard to find • The gross spend on housing finance was $20.1 billion during the month of August 2010. Compared to the previous year, the total spend has decreased by $2.7 billion.

• On a state-by-state basis, Victoria continued to record the highest number of dwelling commencements during the June quarter, representing 32% of all dwellings commenced nationally. Queensland followed with 21% and New South Wales experienced 19% of dwelling movement.

• It is considered that an economy is at full capacity when unemployment levels are at 5%. With the current level just above 5%, there is strong pressure on the RBA to keep inflationary pressures down and increase the cash rate.

• The least amount of dwellings commenced for a state during the June 2010 quarter was the Northern Territory (291), followed by Tasmania (702).

• Investors financial commitment has decreased from a recent peak of $8 billion to register a total investment of $6.5 billion. Investor finance now accounts for 32.3% of all financial housing commitments while owner occupied finance remained at $13.6 billion during the month of August.

• While full time job creation has increased during September, part time employment decreased. This is another sign that the Australian economy is moving from the challenging economic wake of post GFC.

• During the financial year just ended in 2010, approximately $150 billion was invested between homes, buildings and infrastructure. There has also been an increase in private construction over public construction, the first since post GFC.

• Housing finance increased during the year ending July, while personal finance decreased by 0.7% and commercial finance surged with an increase of 8.2%.

• Falling unemployment figures have increased anticipation that inflationary pressures will likely lead to the RBA increasing the cash rate during October by 0.25% to 4.75%.

Australian workforce near capacity

New dwelling numbers improve

• However, according to the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations have stated the mining boom has resulted in skilled vacancies across many sectors of the employment market. An increase of 1.9% in vacancies for professionals and trades workers was reported in September.

• During the month of September 2010, unemployment increased slightly by 0.2% to reach 5.1%. When looking at the moving annual average, a decrease of 0.1% was recorded, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.3%.

• The total number of dwelling commencements increased during the June 2010 quarter by 7.5%, equating to 44,193 new homes for the quarter. When compared to the previous year, commencements have increased by 43.5%.

Unemployment Rate 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

12%

Unemployment Rate Australia

Value of Commitments ($ billion)

Investment

Moving Annual Average Australia 10%

Value of Commitments ($ billion)

Owner Occupied

8%

6%

4%

2%

Month Month

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS Cat. No. 5609, last updated Oct-10

Month Month

Sep-10

Sep-09

Sep-08

Sep-07

Sep-06

Sep-05

Sep-04

Sep-03

Sep-02

Sep-01

Sep-00

Sep-99

Sep-98

Sep-97

Sep-96

Sep-95

Sep-94

Sep-93

Sep-92

Sep-91

Sep-90

Sep-89

Sep-88

Sep-87

Sep-86

Sep-85

Sep-84

Sep-83

Sep-82

Sep-81

Sep-80

Aug-10

Aug-09

Aug-08

Aug-07

Aug-06

Aug-05

Aug-04

Aug-03

Aug-02

Aug-01

Aug-00

0

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS Cat 6202, last updated Oct-10

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

Housing Finance Commitments


Australian Property Overview The Australian property market has found itself divided in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Capital cities and tourism-heavy coastal markets have both experienced a significant decline in activity, containing growth in property values. However, regional areas unaffected by the boom and bust of mines or lack of tourism have been steady and in many cases prospered. As price growth in property generally occurs in a cyclical trend, Australian capital cities have found themselves in different fortunes. Much has been made of Perth’s rapid climb in property prices, which has largely been credited to the significant amount of disposable income that has been made available through regional mining activity. However throughout most of 2010, Perth has seen its market stagnate as prices became too unaffordable. Melbourne has fared somewhat a similar story, with steady price growth occurring during 2009 and the beginning of 2010. However, the rate of this growth has also declined recently. Meanwhile, Sydney’s market appears to be ready for another period of price growth after being in a buyer/ seller equilibrium for several years. In contrast, Brisbane has yet to kick on after the GFC devastated both buyer and seller confidence. A common thought recently on people’s minds has been the over hyped concept that Australian property was the next global market set to correct itself. However, this has not happened and is not likely to occur. It seems that many journalists forget or chose to ignore key factors which keep the Australian market moving forward. Factors such as an extremely large population growth, low unemployment and the high cost of developing new property have all had a helping hand in keeping price levels at their current level. The biggest factor however, has been tight council regulations around the development of land, which has directly helped to sustain property price levels. Activity in most Australian property

markets has softened since the withdrawal of the boost to the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) and the gradual increases to the cash rate, following a period of ‘emergency low’ levels. Areas that have been hit the hardest were capital cities and coastal regions dependant on tourism and holiday investment. However, regional areas that are not dependant on international trade have prospered during this period, with many residents and businesses in these areas taking advantage of the low interest rates. The median price of property in capital cities and most coastal regions in Australia fell drastically during the Global Financial Crisis and in its wake. This was not a reflection of true value falling, but largely due to the significant increase of first home buyers flooding the market while investors and upgraders sat tight. Since the withdrawal of first home buyers from the market, the median price has rebounded back to the original levels of pre-GFC. A different story is told of the more regional property markets in Australia, where the full force of the GFC was not felt. Diversified regional markets tied into agriculture have become the recent Australian property market success story, with many investors taking advantage of the low interest rates. As a whole, capital growth in property has remained positive but has slowed right down as a result of a decline in activity. The standoff between buyers and sellers appears to remain in most capital city markets as buyers are looking for valued product at a discounted price, where most sellers are still reluctant to sell, hoping that by holding out for a longer period, they might have a better return. Generally speaking, when investors do go to the market, they are still seeing their property sold for a higher price than originally purchased. Looking forward, the international economic environment will remain a key factor in the Australian property market. The state of Australia’s economy will be influenced by several overseas factors

such as price of commodities, strength of the Australian Dollar, and the state of the European and US economic struggles. Domestically, the big defining factor that will be watched closely is inflation. This will play a big part on business confidence and consumer sentiment. Business confidence and consumer sentiment has been sluggish since the expansionary fiscal and monetary policy has declined. It will be interesting to see how confidence and sentiment adapts to the predicted continual increases in interest rates. But the question will remain, how high will they go? Before the financial crisis hit, the RBA was cited as being in the wrong for hiking up the cash rate too high, adding unneeded pressure on business and households. Currently, the major influencing factor to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on judging the cash rate is inflation. The RBA cites that Australia’s economy is at near capacity with unemployment currently low. International trade paired with the resource boom has helped to increase inflationary pressures, forcing the RBA to tiptoe the narrow line of curbing inflation or preventing economic growth. Considering the mass uncertainty following the challenging period of the GFC, the Australian property market has performed admirably compared to other international markets. During this time the market has consolidated and stabilised. We no longer expect hyper price growth of 15% and more (experienced during 2007) but rather sustainable growth aimed at 6% to 10% for the short to medium term.


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

REGIONAL VICTORIA

Property Research Report


Regional Victoria increasingly attractive. The price of a standard two bedroom apartment in one of Melbourne’s inner suburbs can still buy an exceptional, three or four bedroom home with room for a growing family in many of Victoria’s premium regional cities. Furthermore, the expanding level of amenity in many regional hubs, provide a standard of living comparable to any metropolitan precinct.

impressive short term growth was outperformed by the Melbourne Statistical Division’s exceptional annual growth of 21.8%, the regional market’s ten year growth rate of 10.0% per annum has outshone the metropolitan market by 0.4% in the long run. As a whole, sales activity within the regional market has remained robust with a total of 7,045 house sales transpiring throughout the June 2010 six month period. This level of activity is aligned with the regions five year average of 7,063 per six months. Throughout many markets in Australia, maintaining sales activity in the current economic climate has proven to be a difficult task. This achievement pays true testament to Regional Victoria’s increasingly attractive lifestyle options and genuine investment potential.

Regional Victoria Overview (30yr Sales Cycle) On a national scale, the Victorian property market has set the benchmark across Australia for the past twelve months, recording exceptional growth in median sale price and robust sales volume. While there is a residual uncertainty which continues to linger in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the confidence portrayed throughout the Regional Victoria market demonstrates the growing appeal of this region to both home owners and investors alike.

This affordability factor also presents ideal investment opportunities. Coupled with the strong capital growth of Regional Victoria’s real estate, vacancy rates for rental accommodation remain extremely low, which continues to push weekly rental prices up. On the whole, total property returns yielded by rental properties in Regional Victoria, generally present as more attractive investment options to the Melbourne market.

According to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the combined estimated resident population (ERP) of the seven LGA’s reached 732,059 residents as of June 2009. This reflects an exceptional population growth of 4.2% or 29,468 new residents across the seven LGA’s since June 2008. This rate of growth significantly out-performs the National population growth rate of 2.3%, highlighting the growing demand for housing in the regional hubs of Victoria.

For the purpose of this analysis, Regional Victoria consists of the seven Local Government Areas (LGA’s) that presently incorporate PRD Jens Gaunt offices. This focus area covers approximately 30,000 square kilometres of the western regional market, including all of the area’s major regional hubs.

Regional Victoria’s growing population has resulted in an expanding economy in many precincts throughout the state. As population and the associated demand for product and services in Regional Victoria continue to grow, an increasing level of employment and business opportunities are emerging. With less competition than the Melbourne market, opportunities for a high market share and business growth are forever increasing in potential. The primary real estate markets of Regional Victoria offer tremendous opportunity for investors and home owners alike. Strong capital growth and rental returns, driven by an increasing level of demand for the Regional Victorian lifestyle is sure to see these vibrant markets continue to flourish over the coming years.

So what is driving Regional Victoria’s strong market performance?

The Regional Victorian house market closed the June 2010 six month period with a median sale price of $318,000. This figure resulted in the market’s median house price exceeding $300,000 for the first time and accounted for an annual growth of 14.8%. While this

As the Melbourne metropolitan area continues to broaden and densify, the lifestyle provided by the regional precincts of Victoria are becoming

Regional Victoria Overview (30yr Sales Cycle) 9000

Regional Vic Sales

8000

$500,000

Regional Vic Median

$450,000

Melbourne SD Median

$400,000

7000

$250,000 4000

$200,000

3000

$150,000

2000

$100,000

1000

$50,000

0

Half year period

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2005 JUN

2004 JUN

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2001 JUN

2000 JUN

1999 JUN

1998 JUN

1997 JUN

1996 JUN

1995 JUN

1994 JUN

1993 JUN

1992 JUN

1991 JUN

1990 JUN

1989 JUN

1988 JUN

1987 JUN

1986 JUN

1985 JUN

1984 JUN

1983 JUN

1982 JUN

1981 JUN

$0 1980 JUN

Number of sales

$300,000

5000

Median sale price

$350,000

6000

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live


REGIONALVICTORIA2010 Regional Victoria Overview (All Ords)

Regional Victoria

Ords decline once again. Throughout this period, the Regional Victoria property market commenced what would turn out to be a seven year period of inactive growth.

The above graph is a representation of the Regional Victoria House Sales Cycle for the past 30 years, benchmarked against the ASX All Ords index. The ASX All Ords is the top 500 Australian listed stocks by market capitalisation. For the purpose of this analysis, Regional Victoria consists of the seven Local Government Areas (LGA) that presently incorporate PRD Jens Gaunt offices.

• Through the most recent June 2010 half year period, the ASX All Ords remain volatile, indicating a continued lack of economic confidence across the nation.

• After an extended period of no discernable growth, the early 2000’s finally saw an upturn in the Regional Victorian property market recording unprecedented growth in median sale price and sales activity. For the duration of this upturn, median sale price increased from $123,000 to $227,000 by June 2004 representing a compounding growth rate of 19.1% per annum. As shown in the graph, the median was driven by high demand within the Regional Victoria market facilitated by strong population growth. Within this period the ASX experienced a notable decline followed a substantial growth continuing through to a record high of 6,581 in September 2007.

There has been an interesting correlation between the ASX All Ords and the Regional Victoria property market over the past 30 years. Median sale price has followed the All Ords closely, up until the most recent stock market crash on the back of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). • Regional Victoria saw relatively stable median price growth to December 1998. Notably, this stability was maintained throughout some volatile economic periods.

• The median sale price for the Regional Victoria house market has achieved an exceptional annual growth of 14.8% to close the June 2010 six month period at $318,000. This outstanding growth has further resulted in a strong 10 year growth rate of 10.0% per annum. On the other hand, the ASX All Ords have achieved a ten year growth rate of only 2.8% per annum, having not yet recovered from a staggering decline of 26% throughout the GFC.

• Since June 2004, the Regional Victoria market has continued to record strong increases in median sale price. While this growth may have been outperformed by the Melbourne market in recent years, Regional Victoria’s robust performance throughout the uncertainty of the GFC and in its wake, has left the majority of the nations markets in awe. Throughout this period, the All Ords experienced a significant decline in late 2007 which resulted in four year low of 3,591 index points as at December 2008.

• The All Ords represented a much more turbulent market. During the 1987 stock market crash, the Regional Victorian property market experience a large spike in activity as investors pulled their money out of stocks and placed it into the more stable investment option of property. This increase in activity resulted in a slight surge in the median sale price of the Regional Victoria property market. • The turmoil experienced during the 1989 recession and soaring interest rates throughout 1990, saw the All

Regional Victoria Overview (All Ords Comparison) 9000

Regional Vic Sales

8000

$350,000

ASX All Ords

Regional Vic Median

$300,000

7000

$200,000

4000

$150,000

3000 $100,000 2000 $50,000

1000

$0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2008 JUN

2007 JUN

2006 JUN

2005 JUN

2004 JUN

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2001 JUN

2000 JUN

1999 JUN

1998 JUN

1997 JUN

Half year period

1996 JUN

1995 JUN

1994 JUN

1993 JUN

1992 JUN

1991 JUN

1990 JUN

1989 JUN

1988 JUN

1987 JUN

1986 JUN

1985 JUN

1984 JUN

1983 JUN

1982 JUN

1981 JUN

0 1980 JUN

Number of sales

5000

Median sale price

$250,000 6000

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live


Victoria

Half Year VIC Migration to March 2010 55,000

Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration

35,000

25,000

Population Growth

15,000

Moving Quarterly Average per annum

5,000

NSW

35,000

VIC

QLD

30,000

Sep 09

25,000

Mar 10

Sep 08

Mar 09

Sep 07

Mar 08

Sep 06

Mar 07

Sep 05

Mar 06

Sep 04

Mar 05

Sep 03

Mar 04

Sep 02

Mar 03

Sep 01

Mar 02

Sep 00

Mar 01

Mar 00

-5,000

20,000

Half Year Period

15,000

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS

10,000

5,000

Net Interstate Migration

Moving Quarterly Average per annum VIC

15,000

QLD

10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000

10

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

Mar-06

Mar-05

Mar-04

Mar-03

Mar-02

Mar-01

Mar-00

Mar-99

Mar-98

Mar-97

Mar-96

Mar-95

Mar-94

Mar-93

Mar-92

Mar-91

Mar-90

Mar-89

Mar-88

Mar-87

Mar-86

Mar-85

-15,000

Annual Avg. of Number of Persons .

NSW

Quarter

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS Cat.3401, last updated Oct-10

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

Mar-06

Mar-05

Mar-04

Mar-03

Mar-02

Mar-01

Mar-00

Mar-99

Mar-98

Mar-97

Mar-96

Mar-95

Mar-94

Mar-93

Mar-92

Mar-91

0 Mar-90

Over the course of the period from 2002 to 2008, interstate migration remained in the negatives as more residents left than the amount of interstate residents moving in. However, in the past twelve months Victoria’s interstate migration has shifted slightly back into the positives, accounting for an extra 2,004 residents throughout the twelve months ending March 2010.

Moving Annual Avg. of Number of Persons

Number of Persons

45,000

A significant factor contributing to Victoria’s overall population growth is the constant influx of overseas migration. In total, 106,790 international newcomers have resided in the state of Victoria throughout the March 2010 twelve month period.

Quarter

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS Cat.3101, last updated Oct-10

As shown in the Population Growth chart, Victoria’s population growth rate has declined in the past year, which has been a common trend within other states and territories apart from the ACT. While the number of new residents has slowed slightly, Victoria still maintains a robust population growth rate of 2.0%. If this rate of growth is maintained, the state of Victoria is projected to welcome a further 2,024,900 new residents by 2026, resulting in an estimated resident population of 7,554,300. With such high volumes of new residents, expect increasing pressure on infrastructure and the property market in the State Capital. As the Melbourne

Victoria Population Projection 8,000,000

Estimated average growth of 2.0% per annum during the next 20 years

7,554,303 6,852,461

7,000,000 6,215,823 6,000,000

5,638,334

5,112,003

5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000

Projected Victorian Population

2,000,000 1,000,000

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

0 2007

During the past 12 months there have been some interesting developments in the dynamics of Victoria’s population growth. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the twelve month period ending March 2010 saw Victoria’s net population increase by 106,790 to an estimated 5,529,400 residents. Overseas migration accounted for the highest portion of growth with 63.8%, while natural growth totalled 34.3% and interstate migration accounting for the remaining 1.9%.

market continues to expand, the regional hubs of Victoria will become an increasingly attractive lifestyle alternative.

2006

Victoria’s Interstate Migration Is Back in the Black

Victoria’s natural population increase (attained by comparing the number of births to deaths), has continued a modest upward trend, resulting in an extra 18,685 residents during the March 2010 twelve month period. This increase can largely be attributed to the overall population growth of the state. In saying this, it could also be assumed that the natural increase of Victoria’s population has been stunted by the recent turmoil associated with the economic climate. Generally speaking, when consumer confidence is low, a lower portion of the population feel financially stable, resulting in a lower number of births.

Estimated Resident Population

Population

Years

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: ABS


REGIONALVICTORIA2010 Regional Victoria Rents During the past 12 months, Victoria’s Regional Rent Index (RRI) has increased by 8.1%, outperforming the State’s Metropolitan Rent Index (MRI), which increased by 6.0%. This highlights that rental returns and yields for investment properties in the regional markets of Victoria are enjoying a higher level of growth than the Melbourne markets. This can be attributed to a number of aspects, the first being the lower median weekly rents achieved in the regional markets. That is, the lower the median rental figure, the more significant the percentage of any change will be. With this being said, Regional Victoria’s rental market has tightened considerably in the past twelve months with the number of new investment properties coming on to the rental market down 6.3% on the previous twelve month period. This decline in the number of available rentals has resulted in a growing shortage for rental accommodation, while the continuing increase in demand is driving weekly rental prices up. The tightening of bank finance approvals coupled with interest rates rises and inflating real estate values, is resulting in the dream of home ownership becoming increasingly unattainable for many Australians. As such, the demand for rental accommodation throughout Australia is expanding. The key benefit that Victoria’s regional rental markets hold over the metropolitan market, is the potential to deliver higher rental yields due to lower real estate values. This, combined with the shortage of rental accommodation in many of the major precincts has resulted in many strong investment opportunities throughout Regional Victoria. The table below takes into account the regional median sale price growth coupled with the rental yield of each market, to attain an estimated total return per annum for investment properties in each of the regional markets.

Victoria Annual Median Growth (House)

Rental Yield Growth (House)

Total Property Returns

BALLARAT

11.6%

4.8%

16.4%

BENDIGO

17.8%

4.8%

22.5%

GEELONG

16.8%

4.1%

19.9%

MELTON

15.1%

4.9%

20.0%

MILDURA

4.9%

5.3%

10.2%

MOUNT CLEAR BUNINYONG

24.5%

4.0%

28.5%

WARRNAMBOOL

10.7%

4.7%

15.4%

WERRIBEE - HOPPERS CROSSING

14.3%

4.7%

19.0%

The table below shows the annual increases recorded in the weekly rent of a number of key precincts in Regional Victoria. Moving Annual Median Rents by Region and Product Type Jun-09

BALLARAT

BENDIGO

GEELONG

MELTON

MILDURA

MOUNT CLEAR / BUNINGYONG

WARRNAMBOOL

WERRIBEE / HOPPERS CROSSING

Jun-10

New Bonds

Rent

New Bonds

Rent

12 Month Growth Rate

Share of New Bonds

1 Bed Unit

262

$125

241

$130

4.0%

-8%

2 Bed Unit

499

$180

561

$190

5.6%

12%

2 Bed House

327

$195

332

$200

2.6%

2%

3 Bed House

1345

$230

1346

$240

4.3%

0%

1 Bed Unit

119

$130

128

$138

5.8%

8%

2 Bed Unit

647

$180

596

$195

8.3%

-8%

2 Bed House

294

$200

259

$215

7.5%

-12%

3 Bed House

1256

$230

1161

$245

6.5%

-8%

1 Bed Unit

580

$140

558

$150

7.1%

-4%

2 Bed Unit

1018

$220

1005

$240

9.1%

-1%

2 Bed House

463

$225

485

$250

11.1%

5%

3 Bed House

1665

$260

1846

$275

5.8%

11%

1 Bed Unit

36

$286

28

$290

1.4%

-22%

2 Bed Unit

101

$185

101

$205

10.8%

0%

2 Bed House

43

$210

38

$223

6.0%

-12%

3 Bed House

647

$230

688

$240

4.3%

6%

1 Bed Unit

91

$120

87

$130

8.3%

-4%

2 Bed Unit

390

$150

330

$160

6.7%

-15%

2 Bed House

117

$185

118

$190

2.7%

1%

3 Bed House

647

$220

639

$225

2.3%

-1%

1 Bed Unit

18

$125

10

$130

4.0%

-44%

2 Bed Unit

44

$183

46

$190

4.1%

5%

2 Bed House

13

$200

24

$190

-5.0%

85%

3 Bed House

100

$248

103

$260

5.1%

3%

1 Bed Unit

81

$120

80

$155

29.2%

-1%

2 Bed Unit

383

$190

299

$210

10.5%

-22%

2 Bed House

98

$230

86

$250

8.7%

-12%

3 Bed House

424

$260

382

$290

11.5%

-10%

1 Bed Unit

30

$183

28

$200

9.6%

-7%

2 Bed Unit

332

$210

345

$220

4.8%

4%

2 Bed House

54

$220

84

$240

9.1%

56%

3 Bed House

1448

$260

1689

$270

3.8%

17%


Victoria 2011 Opportunities The performance of the Regional Victorian property market over the past twelve months, has demonstrated the robust value and prevailing demand for this unique market. While Regional Victoria has proven to be a strong performer on a national scale during recent times, key indicators suggest that many of Victoria’s regional precincts are poised to experience their strongest growth over the short to medium term. Over the past decade, Regional Victoria’s market performance has been heavily guided by the success of the Melbourne property market. Even in the most recent 12 month period, Victoria’s success stories have been heavily focused on the metropolitan market, with the exceptional growth of the Melbourne markets outperforming the majority of regional precincts. However looking forward, the constant surging value of real estate in the metropolitan markets has priced many everyday Australians out of contention for a family home in the states capital. As such, the demand for real estate in the more affordable regional hubs of Victoria is on the rise. As the demand for regional Victoria’s key precincts continue to grow, strong population growth is creating a cyclical affect, whereby the growing number of residents is: 1. Resulting in a broadening array of quality amenity and increasing business and employment opportunities in the regions, 2. Building upward pressure for further Government funded investment into substantial infrastructure improvements to service the increasing portion of the State’s population, 3. And as this expansion and improvement continues, the quality of lifestyle in Victoria’s regional precincts will continue grow; thus attracting more residents to the region.

While this cycle is already well underway, at present, the key real estate market driver for Regional Victoria remains its comparable affordability to the Melbourne market. A young, growing Victorian family, with access to $300,000 to $400,000 finance can chose between an average two bedroom apartment in a reasonable suburb in Melbourne or a substantial three to four bedroom home with a back yard and room to grow in any of Victoria’s premium regional hubs. This degree of affordability, coupled with robust population forecasts, has also resulted in an array of attractive investment markets for many savvy Victorian investors. At present, many of the regional hubs are reporting alarmingly low vacancy rates, with many of the premium regions such as Warrnambool dealing with a rental affordability crisis. The combination of increasing demand and a shortage of rental accommodation has seen weekly rent prices in many parts of Victoria surge in recent times and are showing no signs of slowing. Herein lies the primary opportunity for Regional Victoria investors for 2011. Buying affordable real estate in a number of Victoria’s surging regional markets promises an ideal investment,

with strong rental yields and the best potential for capital gains as the regional hubs continue to expand and develop. For home buyers, the opportunity lies largely in the improvement of lifestyle, while also being assured the reward of strong capital gains. Regardless of the type of real estate you are looking to buy, the year ahead is shaping up to be an outstanding period for Regional Victoria. We at PRDnationwide believe that 2011 will present many excellent opportunities across the board for home buyers and investors alike.


BALLARAT

Property Research Report


Ballarat

...existing as one of Victoria’s predominant inland LGA’s, Ballarat offers an ideal mix of modern and chic amenity... offering the lifestyle of a metropolitan region 9.1% per annum. The median land price was attained from a total of 211 vacant land transactions, which represented a significant softening from the June 2009 six months and the lowest level of activity since December 2000.

month period. From the total 976 house sales recorded, a 50.1% majority transacted within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket, while a further 19% transacted within the $100,000 to $199,999 bracket. Promisingly for the region, 4.6% or 45 transactions achieved sale figures above the higher end price point of $500,000. Notably, this section of the market has expanded in recent times, indicating a trend towards greater demand for premium product, along with increasing property values.

The Ballarat Local Government Area (LGA) encompasses 740 square kilometres, with its nearest perimeter approximately 90 kilometres north-west of Melbourne’s CBD. Existing as one of Victoria’s predominant inland LGA’s, Ballarat offers an ideal mix of modern and chic amenity, with historic and traditional structure. This established regional precinct offers all the liveability of a metropolitan region and is well serviced with the Western Freeway and Ballarat Rail Line providing direct access into Melbourne.

The LGA’s central hub of Ballarat attracted the lion share of transactions, recording 33.7% of the regions total 976 house sales. This was followed by the suburbs of Wendouree, Alfredton and Sebastopol, which attracted a further 10%, 9% and 8.5% of transactions respectively. The remaining sales were well dispersed throughout a further 29 neighbouring suburbs.

House The Ballarat LGA has enjoyed a robust property market, with constant growth over the past 10 years. Closing the June 2010 six month period at $255,000, the median sale price for houses experienced an annual growth of 8.5%, culminated from a total of 976 house transactions. The longerterm 10 year growth rate of 9.7% per annum was maintained, representing a 15% decline on the peak of the market twelve months prior. Demonstrate the resilience of this market, demand has been well aligned with the region’s five year average of 974 transactions per six

The median sale price of the Ballarat LGA vacant land market continued to surge throughout the first half of the 2010 calendar year. Closing the six month period at a record high $114,000, the median sale price experienced an outstanding 22.6% annual increase, while maintaining a more sustainable 10 year growth rate of

Ballarat LGA Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle 600

$255,000 $250,000

500

$100,000

$200,000

400

$80,000

300

$60,000

200

$40,000

100

$20,000

Number of sales

1,200

$120,000 $114,000

$300,000

Number of sales Median

Median

$150,000 600 $100,000

Number of Sales

800

Median Sale Price

1,000

400

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$0

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

0 2000 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

$0 2000 JUN

0

2000 DEC

$50,000

200

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

The Ballarat LGA demonstrates a sturdy market with growing consumer confidence and improved liveability facilitated through increasing infrastructure, amenity and employment opportunity. As the metropolitan suburbs of Melbourne become financially less viable to many, sustainable regional markets such as Ballarat are well positioned for strong future growth on the back of increasing popularity.

Vacant Land

Ballarat LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle 1,400

From the 211 vacant land transactions recorded throughout the June 2010 six months, 45.5% transacted within the $100,000 to $149,999 price bracket. The $50,000 to $99,999 price bracket accounted for a further 36.5%, while a notable 18% of transactions achieved sale figures greater than $150,000. This higher end portion of the market has increased significantly on the corresponding period twelve months prior, where only 8.3% was attained.

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Ballarat LGA


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Ballarat

...maintaining strong sales activity and robust growth in median sale price... Ballarat demonstrates a sturdy market with growing consumer confidence and improved liveability

Central Ballarat Neighbouring Suburbs Situated approximately 100 kilometres north-west of Melbourne, Ballarat exists as one of Victoria’s primary regional hubs. The Midland Highway runs through Ballarat Central, providing a direct route to the Western Freeway and the Melbourne CBD. The region is also well serviced by the Ballarat Rail Line, which offers a high speed rail alternative named the VLine, providing a 64 minute express service into Melbourne. For the purpose of presenting a suitable analysis of Central Ballarat’s residential market, the direct neighbouring suburbs of the city centre have been included in the sample area.

The central suburb of Ballarat and its direct neighbouring suburbs make up over 50% of the Ballarat LGA’s total unit market. The June 2010 half year period saw a total of 75 unit sales transact throughout the central suburbs, yielding a median sale price of $195,000. In many ways, the Ballarat unit market remains largely in its infant stage. The dominance of the house market has resulted in subdued demand for unit type product causing fluctuation in the median sale price. With this being said units in Ballarat’s central market have achieved an average compounding growth rate of 7.2% per annum over the past 10 years. This has seen the market appreciate $100,000 since June 2000.

Of the total 473 house sales recorded, a majority 51.6% transacted within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket, while a further 19.7% transacted within the $150,000 to $199,999 bracket. Toward the premium end of the market, 6.8% or 32 transactions achieved sale figures greater than $500,000. Similar to the greater Ballarat LGA market, the June 2010 six month period has resulted in a significantly higher share of $500,000 plus transactions, indicating a trend toward an expanding higher end of the market, along with a general increase in property values.

House The central suburbs of Ballarat portray a similar story to that of the greater Ballarat LGA; maintaining strong sales activity and robust growth in median sale price over the past 10 years. The June 2010 half year period saw the median sale price for the central Ballarat house market reach $250,000. Despite remaining $5,000 more affordable than the greater Ballarat LGA, the median sale price outperformed that of the greater region, achieving a

As the appealing lifestyle that Victoria’s regional hubs offer continues to grow in popularity, demand for well located, low maintenance residential product will rise. Ballarat’s central suburbs will continue to densify in coming years and the regions unit market will become an increasingly attractive investment option.

The central suburb of Ballarat attracted a 69.5% share of the transactions, recording 329 house sales. Soldiers Hill, Ballarat East and Ballarat North also absorbed a significant level of sales, recording 33, 24 and 20 transactions respectively. The remaining sales were well dispersed over a further seven neighbouring suburbs.

Central Ballarat Ten Year House Sales Cycle 600

Unit

twelve month growth of 11.1% and a longer 10 year growth rate of 9.9% per annum. The median was attained from 473 house transactions throughout the June 2010 six months, accounting for 48.5% of the total sales for the greater Ballarat LGA.

Central Ballarat Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $300,000

Number of sales Median

500

$250,000 $250,000

400

$200,000

300

$150,000

200

$100,000

140

$250,000

Number of sales Median

120

60

$100,000

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

$0 2001 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2000 JUN

$0

0

$50,000 20

2000 DEC

$50,000

100

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

$150,000

80

40

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

$200,000 $195,000

100


Ballarat

...a quaint, pastoral settlement less than 10 kilometres to the south of Ballarat... neighbouring precincts such as Buninyong provide a unique alternative with easy access to quality amenity After a hike in sales activity through late 2009, the six months ending June 2010 saw sales volume soften slightly to 50 house transactions. As a result the Buninyong house market has declined below the five year average of 58 transactions per six month period. However, due to the small size of this boutique market, minor fluctuations such as this are not uncommon.

Buninyong has a rich history as one of Victoria’s first major inland communities, dating back to the pre-gold rush era. Upon finding gold in 1851, the town expanded rapidly, with the regions wide streets planned in expectation of further growth. However today, the town exists as a quaint, pastoral settlement less than 10 kilometres to the south of Ballarat. For the purpose of this report, Buninyong’s direct neighbouring suburbs have been included in the compiling of data.

From the 50 house sales recorded, transactions were distributed between the suburbs of Buninyong and Mount Helen, accounting for 27 sales and 23 sales respectively. Prices were well dispersed between $115,000 and $500,000 with the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket accounting for 32% of total transactions.

House The Buninyong house market has continued to perform well throughout the June 2010 financial year. Closing the first half of 2010 at $312,250, the new peak in median represented an outstanding annual growth of 15.6%, after a small market downturn 12 months prior. Looking at the regions long-term performance, a 10 year growth rate of 9.4% per annum has been maintained, amounting to a $185,000 increase in the median price since June 2000.

Median

Greater Buninyong Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle $350,000

50

$312,250 $300,000

45

$140,000

Number of sales Median

$120,000

40

70

$200,000

50 40

$150,000

30 $100,000 20

$116,000 $100,000

35

Number of Sales

60

Median Sale Price

$250,000

30

$80,000

25

$60,000

20 15

$40,000

10

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

$0 2001 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

$0

0 2000 JUN

0

$20,000

5

2000 DEC

$50,000

10

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

Due to its close proximity, the performance of the Buninyong property market is strongly leveraged off the continuous growth of Ballarat. As the regional hub of Ballarat continues to expand both economically and in population, neighbouring precincts such as Buninyong provide a unique alternative with easy access to quality amenity.

The Buninyong vacant land market is heavily characterised by a fluctuating median, due to the minimal size and low level of sales activity in the market. The June 2010 half year saw the median sale price for vacant land close at $116,000, derived from a total of 23 transactions. This figure equates to a 12 month growth of 12.7%, following the trend of the 10 year growth rate of 12.7% per annum. This outstanding long term growth has seen the median sale price of Buninyong’s vacant land

Number of sales

80

Buninyong Market Linked to Growth of Ballarat

Vacant Land

Greater Buninyong Ten Year House Sales Cycle 90

From the 23 vacant land transactions that occurred throughout the June 2010 six month period, 15 transacted within the $100,000 to $199,999 price bracket, with the remaining eight sales transacting for less than $100,000. Similar to the house market, the suburbs of Buninyong and Mount Helen accounted for all of the areas sales, recording 18 and five transactions respectively.

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Buninyong and Surrounding Suburbs

market increase $81,000 from the June 2000 figure of $35,000.


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Ballarat

...the quiet, community vibe of Creswick, coupled with its affordable real estate, will continue to attract greater numbers of home buyers

Creswick and Surrounding Suburbs The town of Creswick is situated approximately 130 kilometres northwest of the Melbourne CBD, and adjoins the Ballarat and Hepburn LGA’s. Well serviced by the Midland Highway, the regional hub of Ballarat is a convenient 15 minute drive, allowing many Creswick residents an easy commute into work each day. The quiet, community vibe of Creswick, coupled with its affordable real estate, will continue to attract greater numbers of home buyers from Ballarat and further afield.

After a strong surge in median sale price throughout the 2007 market boom, Creswick’s median house price has fluctuated around the $200,000 market for the past two and a half years, closing the June 2010 six month period at $210,000. No real growth has been recorded over the past twelve months, however, observing the longerterm growth rate of 11.6% per annum since June 2000 highlights the true and continuing performance of this market.

A number of significant land releases in the suburb of Ascot have resulted in outstanding growth in Creswick’s vacant land market over the past two years. From a total of 38 vacant land transactions recorded throughout the June 2010 half year period, a resulting median sale price of $84,500 was achieved. This figure represented Greater Creswick Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle 50

Number of sales Median

$210,000 $200,000

$150,000

50 40

$100,000

30

$70,000

35

Number of Sales

60

$84,500 $80,000

40

Median Sale Price

70

$90,000

Number of sales Median

45

$60,000

30

$50,000

25 $40,000

20

$30,000

15

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

$0 2003 DEC

$10,000

0 2002 JUN

5

2002 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2000 DEC

$0

2001 JUN

0

2001 DEC

10

$20,000

10

2000 JUN

$50,000

2000 DEC

20

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

$250,000

80

Number of Sales

Analysing the sales by price points, the majority of sales transacted within the $50,000 to $99,999 price bracket, accounting for 24 transactions, while a further nine sales recorded sale figures less than $50,000. The top end of the regions vacant land market was represented by a $219,000 sale in the central suburb of Creswick.

Vacant Land

Greater Creswick Ten Year House Sales Cycle 90

The recent push in the median sale price can be attributed to the increase of higher priced sales activity in the suburb of Ascot, as mentioned above. The 38 vacant land transactions recorded in the Creswick market throughout the June 2010 period, represented the second most active six months the region has ever experienced. The central suburb of Creswick accounted for only four of the total sales, while Ascot and Clunes attracted 22 and 11 sales respectively. The remaining single sale transacted in the suburb of Springmount.

The central suburb of Creswick recorded the bulk of the areas total sales, accounting for 60%, followed by the suburb of Clunes, accounting for a further 24%. The remaining nine sales transacted in the neighbouring suburbs of Ascot, Broomfield, Springmount and Dean.

House

100

an annual growth of 3.2% while an outstanding 10 year growth rate of 13% per annum was recorded.

Due to the unsubstantial size of the Creswick market, sales activity has traditionally fluctuated, between 4060 transactions per six month period. The June 2010 half year resulted in 55 settled house transactions for the area, equating to six sales greater than the corresponding period 12 months earlier. From the transactions recorded, 36.5% achieved sale figures within the $200,000 to $249,999 price bracket, while a further 21.8% transacted within the $150,000 to $199,999 bracket. Overall, the remaining sales were well dispersed, with a $385,000 sale in the suburb of Springmount representing the top end of the market.


BENDIGO

Property Research Report


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Bendigo

...maintaining a diverse economy, Bendigo is comprised of mining, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and a strong financial presence with Australia’s only provincial stock exchange

Greater Bendigo LGA The Greater Bendigo LGA is located in central Victoria, covering approximately 3,048 square kilometres, with its closest perimeter just over 90 kilometres north of Melbourne’s CBD. The area has a diverse economy comprised of mining, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, health, and a strong financial presence with the only provincial stock exchange in Australia.

House

With a total of 279 vacant land transactions recorded in the area throughout the June 2010 six months, the Greater Bendigo LGA experienced a significant softening in activity, declining 9.5% to register below the five year average of 308 sales per six months. Observing the price point disparity of these sales, the majority of transactions were recorded within the $50,000 to $99,999 price bracket, accounting for 53.8% of transactions. This was followed by the $100,000 to $149,999 price bracket, which accounted for a further 30.8%.

The 860 house transactions recorded throughout the June 2010 six months were dispersed throughout a total of 44 suburbs in the area. The central suburb of Bendigo accounted for the bulk of transactions, achieving 25%, while Kangaroo Flat, Golden Square and Eaglehawk also attracted substantial sales, accounting for 11%, 9% and 7% of the regions total transactions respectively.

Continuing on a steady upward trend, the Greater Bendigo LGA performed particularly well throughout the June 2010 financial year. The median sale price for houses in the region closed the June 2010 six month period at $260,000. This figure accounted for a strong 12 month growth of 13.5% and a robust 10 year growth rate of 9.3% per annum, culminated from a total of 860 transactions. This level of sales represented a 3.5% softening in activity on the five year average of 890 transactions per six month period.

The recent surge in the median sale price of real estate across the Greater Bendigo LGA demonstrates a return in confidence and a demand for affordable lifestyle alternatives in Victoria’s market. As Victoria’s primary inland precinct, the Greater Bendigo LGA is well equipped for future growth with expanding employment opportunity, quality infrastructure and high level of amenity already available.

Vacant Land Over the past 10 years, vacant land sales have maintained roughly a 25% share of the Greater Bendigo LGA’s total residential market. While this substantial portion of the market has been slightly out-performed by houses

Demonstrated by the increasing median sale price, sales activity in the Greater Bendigo LGA’s house market is increasingly moving toward the higher price brackets. From the total 860

Bendigo LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle 1,200

in recent years, vacant land in Greater Bendigo remains a proven strong performer for capital growth. The vacant land median sale price closed the June 2010 six months at $92,000, representing a strong 12 month growth of 9.5%, matched by the long-term 10 year growth rate of 9.5% per annum.

house sales recorded, the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket accounted for 50.7%, while the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket accounted for a further 20.1%. These two price brackets combined, have seen a 9.1% increase throughout the 2010 financial year. In conjunction with increasing activity in the higher price brackets, we have seen the portion of Bendigo’s house sales transacting for less than $200,000 diminish from 32.4% to just 18.2%. Meanwhile houses achieving sale prices greater than $400,000 have improved 5.1% to account for 10.9% of the market.

Bendigo LGA Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle 600

$300,000

Number of sales Median

$260,000

1,000

$120,000

Number of sales Median

$100,000

500

$250,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$20,000

$0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

0

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

100

2003 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

$0 2000 JUN

0

$40,000

2002 JUN

$50,000

200

2002 DEC

200

$60,000

2001 JUN

$100,000

300

2001 DEC

400

$80,000

2000 JUN

$150,000

400

2000 DEC

600

Number of Sales

$200,000

Median Sale Price

800

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

$92,000


Bendigo

...well equipped for future growth, Bendigo offers expanding employment opportunity, quality infrastructure and high level of amenity already in place

Central Bendigo and Neighbouring Suburbs Bendigo City is another of Victoria’s predominant inland hubs, located approximately 130 kilometres north of the state’s capital. The central suburbs of Bendigo are well serviced with the Calder Highway and Bendigo Rail Line offering direct access into Melbourne, both of which have been recently upgraded as part of a State Government initiative. For the purpose of providing a suitable analysis of Central Bendigo’s residential market, the direct neighbouring suburbs of the city centre have also been included in the data.

Similar to the regions house market, unit activity in the central suburbs of Bendigo has continued to shift toward the higher price points, with entry level prices on their way to exceeding $150,000. As a steady influx of new residents continue to call Bendigo home, well located, low maintenance residencies will continue to become a sought after commodity.

Unit

The recent strong performance of the Greater Bendigo LGA house market can be largely attributed to the exceptional performance of the regions central suburbs. Closing the June 2010 half year at $260,000, the central suburbs median sale price recorded a twelve month growth of 15.6%, significantly outperforming the 10 year growth rate of 10% per annum.

Higher density living and convenience of location have resulted in the central suburbs of Bendigo accounting for over 65% of the LGA’s total unit market during the past decade. Closing the June 2010 six month period at $211,000, the central suburbs median sale price saw 8.2% annual growth, almost mirroring the market’s 10 year growth rate of 8.3% per annum.

The median price was attained from a total of 432 house transactions throughout the June 2010 six months,

In total, 93 unit sales were recorded throughout the June 2010 half year,

Central Bendigo Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Central Bendigo Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $300,000

Number of sales Median

160

$260,000 $250,000

600

$250,000

Number of sales Median

140

$211,000 $200,000

$150,000 300

$100,000 200

Number of Sales

400

Median Sale Price

$200,000

100

$150,000

80 $100,000

60 40

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

$0 2001 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2000 DEC

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2000 JUN

$0

0

$50,000 20

2000 DEC

$50,000

100

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

120

500

Number of Sales

Only in the most recent 12 month period, has the bulk of Bendigo’s unit transactions shifted from the $150,000 to $199,999 price bracket, into the $200,000 to $249,999 bracket. This higher price bracket accounted for 36.6% of the markets total sales throughout the June 2010 six months, while the $150,000 to $199,999 bracket accounted for 29%.

In the short to medium term, houses within the inner suburbs of Bendigo will become increasingly in demand, pushing prices higher. The potential to buy house product in this market at sub $200,000 is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

House

700

representing a significant decline in activity on the market high of the corresponding period 12 months prior. However, this level of activity is in reasonable alignment with the region’s five year average of 95 transactions per six month period.

which represented a softening of 13 sales on the five year average. Observing sales activity by price point, the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket continues to attract the majority of activity, representing 56.3% of the markets total sales. However, the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket has immerged as the regions next most predominant sector attracting 17.5%, while the share of inner suburb house product under $200,000 has diminished to just 16.2% throughout the June 2010 half year.


GEELONG

Property Research Report


Geelong

...as the second largest city in the state of Victoria... Geelong has become a viable metropolitan option for Victorian’s moving away from the state capital

Greater Geelong LGA The Greater Geelong LGA covers approximately 1,240 square kilometres to the south-west of Melbourne, with its closest perimeter roughly 40km from Melbourne’s CBD. As the second largest city in the state of Victoria, Geelong has a high degree of connectivity to all of south-west Victoria and Melbourne via a nexus of highways and light rail. This strong regional precinct offers all the amenity of a metropolitan region and has become a viable option for Victorian’s moving away from the state capital.

Observing the transpiring sales by price points, a trend toward the higher price brackets is becoming increasingly evident. While the June 2010 six month period saw the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket account for 27.6% of total transactions, it was the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket that attracted the largest portion of sales for the first time, accounting for 31.3% or 617 of the regions total 1,970 house sales. Toward the premium end of the market 59 transactions in the Greater Geelong LGA market achieved sale figures greater than $800,000.

House The past two years has seen the Greater Geelong house market maintain strong median sale price growth. Closing the June 2010 six month period at $340,000, the median price recorded an outstanding 14.9% annual growth, while a 10 year growth rate of 10.4% per annum was maintained. This exceptional growth has seen the Greater Geelong house market appreciate $214,000 from the June 2000 median price of $126,000.

Sales activity for vacant land in the Greater Geelong LGA has quietened substantially over the past twelve months, with only 432 sales transpiring throughout the June 2010 half year period. This accounted to a 15.5% softening on the regions five year average of 511 sales per six months. However, the trend in declining activity becomes far more evident when comparing recent activity to the earlier half of the decade, where sales ranged between 800 to 1,100 transactions per six month period. This indicates a growing scarcity of available vacant land in this densifying market, which will continue to foster increasing sales figures in coming years.

Activity was well dispersed throughout 45 of the LGA’s suburbs, with Corio proving the most popular with 157 house transactions. This was followed by Highton in the west and Ocean Grove on the southern coastline, achieving 147 and 130 transactions respectively.

Vacant Land Similar to the house market, vacant land in the Greater Geelong LGA has displayed a robust trend toward median price growth over the past decade. Closing the June 2010 half year period

Geelong LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Geelong LGA Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle $400,000

Number of sales

1,200

$350,000 $340,000

2,500

$180,000

Number of sales Median

Median

$167,000 $160,000

1,000 $140,000

1,500

$200,000 $150,000

1,000

Number of Sales

$250,000

Median Sale Price

2,000

$120,000

800

$100,000 600 $80,000 $60,000

400

$100,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$20,000

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

$0 2001 JUN

0 2001 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

$0 2000 JUN

0

$40,000 200

2000 JUN

$50,000

2000 DEC

500

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

$300,000

Median Sale Price

The median price achieved was based on a total of 1,970 house transactions, which consequently saw sales activity

3,000

at $167,000, the LGA’s median sale price for vacant land recorded a 12 month growth of 9.9% and was outperformed by an exceptional ten year growth rate of 14.8% per annum. This growth has seen the Greater Geelong vacant land market appreciate $125,000 from the June 2000 median of just $42,000.

record sub 2,000 levels for only the second period this decade. This recent decline in activity accounts to an 8.5% softening in sales on the LGA’s five year average of 2,151 transactions per six month period.

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Geelong

...the built form in Geelong has changed dramatically due to large scale redevelopment of the city centre and the gentrification of the inner suburbs

The sales were reasonably distributed throughout Geelong and its seven direct neighbouring suburbs, with Newtown attracting 31% of the total transactions. Geelong West and Geelong East also recorded strong activity, accounting for 21% and 16% of total sales respectively.

Unit While the Greater Geelong LGA has maintained a strong unit market for many years, it is only in the past six years that we have seen the central suburbs of Geelong emerge as a sustainable and robust unit market in its own right. The June 2010 six month period saw unit sales in the inner suburbs of Geelong register a median price of $280,000. This resulted in an annual growth of 3.3% and a steady 10 year growth rate of 6.5% per annum. This new height in the median sale

Central Geelong Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Central Geelong Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $420,000 $400,000

140

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

0 2005 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

$0 2000 DEC

0

$50,000

20

2003 JUN

$50,000

50

2002 JUN

100

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

$100,000

40

2002 DEC

$100,000

60

2001 JUN

$150,000

150

$150,000

80

2001 DEC

$200,000

200

$200,000

100

2000 JUN

250

Number of Sales

$250,000

$250,000

120

Median Sale Price

$300,000

300

$280,000

Median

$350,000

350

$300,000

Number of sales

2000 DEC

Median

400

Number of Sales

160

$450,000

Number of sales

2005 DEC

Maintaining sturdy growth since 2004, the June 2010 six month period saw the median sale price for houses in the inner suburbs of Geelong increase dramatically. Closing the period at $420,000, the sharp rise resulted in an outstanding annual growth of 18% and a corresponding 10 year growth rate of 12.3% per annum. The median price was derived from a total of 273 house transactions, representing the quietest six months that Geelong’s inner suburbs have encountered in over a decade. This level of sales equates to a 22% decline on the area’s five year average of 348 sales per six month period.

As gentrification of Geelong continues, the lifestyle offered by the inner suburbs continues to grow in demand and value. Accordingly, well located, low maintenance housing alternatives in Geelong’s premium inner suburbs represent a strong investment for the medium term.

2004 JUN

House

450

Sales activity was heavily weighted towards the $200,000 to $299,999 and $100,000 to $199,999 price brackets, registering 33% and 22% of the inner suburbs total unit sales respectively. The $400,000 to $499,999 price bracket also attracted a 19% share of sales, while six transactions (4.5%) achieved sale figures greater than $800,000.

2004 DEC

Geelong is a port city located on Corio Bay and the Barwon River, 75km south-west of Melbourne’s CBD. Since the 1990’s, the built form in Geelong has changed dramatically due to large scale redevelopment of the city centre and the gentrification of the inner suburbs. The convenience and liveability of Geelong’s inner suburbs have traditionally resulted in this market fetching higher price points to that of the outer suburbs.

2003 DEC

Central Geelong and Neighbouring Suburbs

500

price resulted from the regions second strongest period for sales activity on record. In total, 137 unit transactions transpired throughout the June 2010 six months, corresponding to an 18% hike on the five year average of 116 sales per six months.

The recent spike in the median sale price of Geelong’s inner suburbs can be attributed to a substantial shift in buying trends toward the higher price brackets. The $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket remained the most predominant, accounting for 26% of total transactions. However, this was closely followed by the $400,000 to $499,999 bracket, which attracted 22.7% of sales and the $500,000 to $599,999 bracket with a further 15.4%. Toward the premium end of the market, 22 transactions achieved sale figures greater than $800,000.


KYNETON

Property Research Report


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Kyneton

‌the Macedon Ranges LGA provides a high degree of connectivity to Melbourne...attracting a large array of weekend visitors to the region.

Macedon Ranges LGA Located toward the central region of Victoria, the Macedon Ranges LGA covers approximately 1,750 square kilometres to the north-west of the State Capital. With 10 established townships in the region, the LGA provides a high degree of connectivity to Melbourne via the Calder Freeway attracting a large array of weekend visitors to the region.

In regards to sales activity by price points, the Macedon Ranges LGA house sales were well distributed throughout all price brackets. A 33.5% portion of sales transacted within the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket, followed by the $200,000 to $299,999 bracket, which accounted for a further 22% share. The region has also seen a growing portion of the market attracting sales figures greater than $500,000, which accounted for a 24.5% share throughout the June 2010 period.

House The Macedon Ranges LGA house market has experience exceptional growth throughout the June 2010 financial year. From a total of 325 house transactions, the June 2010 six month period closed with a resulting median sale price of $369,000. This figure represented a sharp, 23% increase from the corresponding period twelve months prior, while a more sustainable 10 year growth rate of 10.7% per annum was maintained. This long-term rate of growth has seen the Macedon Ranges house market appreciate $236,000 since June 2000.

Vacant Land Despite a decline in activity through the most recent six months, the Macedon Ranges vacant land market has recorded strong and steady growth in the median sale price for the past three years. Closing the June 2010 half year at $159,750, the median price recorded an exceptional annual growth of 14.1%, while an equally impressive growth rate of 11.8% per annum has been maintained over the past 10 years. This constant rate of growth has resulted in the region’s median price for vacant land to appreciate by over $100,000 from just $52,500 achieved during the June 2000 period.

The 325 transacting house sales throughout the June 2010 half year, remained in-line with the markets five year average of 329 sales per six month

Macedon Ranges LGA Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle

Median

$180,000

Number of sales Median

$369,000 $350,000

$160,000 $159,750

200

350

$140,000

$200,000 200

$150,000

150

Number of Sales

$250,000

250

Median Sale Price

$300,000

300

$120,000 150

$100,000 $80,000

100

$60,000

$100,000

100

$40,000

50 $50,000

$0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$20,000 0 2000 JUN

$0

0

2000 DEC

50

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

250

$400,000

Number of sales

400

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Macedon Ranges LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle 450

Recent sales activity for vacant land in the Macedon Ranges LGA does not reflect quite as positive a story. The level of sales for the June 2010 six months has declined below 100 transactions for the first time since 2006. Recording a total of 84 sales, the half year period has experienced a 34% softening in activity on the five year average of 127 sales per six months. Given the particularly robust performance of the regions house market, this decline in vacant land activity does not necessarily reflect a loss of confidence or demand for Macedon Ranges real estate, but perhaps a shift in the type of product transacting in the region.

period. Sales were absorbed throughout 20 suburbs in the area, with Gisborne and Kyneton attracting a 21% share in activity each, followed by Romsey accounting for a further 13%.


Kyneton

...Kyneton is now being discovered again by a new generation of commuters, investors, families and holiday makers seeking the quintessential country lifestyle Kyneton market mature $210,000 from the June 2000 figure of just $86,000.

The township of Kyneton exists as a primary hub of the Macedon Ranges LGA. Located approximately an 85 kilometre drive north-west of Melbourne’s CBD, the region is well serviced with the Calder Freeway and Bendigo Rail Line providing direct access into Melbourne’s CBD. Maintaining a unique, small town charm, the main streets of Kyneton are lined with many of the town’s original buildings, creating a historic and laid back vibe in the town centre.

The June 2010 median price was achieved from a total of 67 house transactions, which remains on par with the regions five year average of 65 sales per six month period. Activity has been heavily favoured within the $200,000 to $299,999 and $300,000 to $399,999 price brackets accounting for 46.3% and 30% of total sales respectively. A further 9% of sales were recorded within the $400,000 to $499,999 bracket, while a significant increase in house sales achieving prices above $500,000 also resulted in a 9% share of total sales.

House

Vacant Land

The minimal volume of sales within the Kyneton market has traditionally resulted in an inconsistent property market for the region. However, strong growth has been well maintained by the Kyneton house market over the past 12 months. Closing the June 2010 half year period at $296,000, the median sale price for houses in Kyneton recorded an annual growth of 12.8%. While this median does tend to fluctuate, observing the long-term 10 year growth rate of 13.1% per annum demonstrates a trend of increasing property values. This long-term growth has seen the median sale price for houses in the

Similar to the Kyneton house market, the townships vacant land market is characterised by a fluctuating median price due to a low volume of sales. With this being said, Kyneton recorded a total of 26 vacant land transactions throughout the June 2010 six month period, equating to a median sale price of $104,750. This figure resulted in an annual increase of 10.3%, slightly outperforming the regions 10 year growth rate of 10% per annum. Despite an observable level of turbulence within the market, this long-term growth represents a strong market and clarifies a certain upward trend in the value of

Kyneton Ten Year House Sales Cycle

40

Median

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

$0 2004 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2000 DEC

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2004 DEC

$0

0

$20,000

5

2003 JUN

$50,000

10

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

$40,000

10

2002 JUN

$100,000 20

$60,000

15

2002 DEC

30

20

2001 JUN

$150,000

$80,000

25

2001 DEC

40

Number of Sales

$200,000

Median Sale Price

50

$104,750 $100,000

30

$250,000 60

$120,000

35

$300,000

$296,000

70

Number of Sales

Number of sales Median

2000 JUN

Number of sales

80

As a long regarded hub of the Macedon Ranges shire, in years gone by Kyneton had been overlooked by metropolitan buyers seeking the higher profile locations of Mount Macedon, Macedon and Woodend, however with the gentrification of the towns pretty streetscapes, improved infrastructure and transport facilities and more affordable housing options Kyneton is now being discovered again by a new generation of commuters, investors, families and holiday makers seeking the quintessential country lifestyle.

Kyneton Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle $350,000

2000 DEC

90

While it is hard to gauge a reasonable level of activity for Kyneton’s fluctuating vacant land market, the 26 sales recorded throughout the June 2010 half year represented the regions fourth strongest period on record. This level of activity also remained above the towns five year market average of 23 transactions per six months. The sales were well dispersed, with $40,000 representing the most affordable transaction and $209,000 the highest.

2003 DEC

Kyneton

Kyneton’s property market.


MELTON

Property Research Report


Melton

...earmarked as a key growth corridor for Victoria... the Melton LGA holds a large array of substantial residential and infrastructure projects Unit

almost $200,000 from its June 2000 median of $126,000.

The Melton LGA encompasses almost 530 square kilometres, with its closest perimeter approximately 20 kilometres west of Melbourne’s CBD. The region comprises of 20 suburbs and has been earmarked as a key growth corridor for Victoria, with much of Melbourne’s urban sprawl already encroaching the LGA’s eastern border. The LGA holds a large array of substantial residential and infrastructure projects, both proposed and underway, to assist in the absorption of the influx of new residents to the region. This constant growth and development will result in a number of emerging opportunities for investors and home buyers alike in the years to come.

As mentioned, the rise in sales activity in recent times saw a total of 145 unit sales transact in the Melton LGA throughout the June 2010 six month period. This level of sales represented a 16% increase on the markets five year average of 125 sales per six months. Total sales in the June 2010 half year period were heavily focused within the suburbs of Melton, Melton South and Hillside attracting 25%, 17.5% and 14% respectively. The remaining transactions were dispersed across a further nine suburbs in the region.

From the 1,157 house transactions recorded, the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket attracted the lion share, accounting for 37%. This was followed by the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket, attracting a further 31%. In recent times, we have seen a shift in activity toward the higher price brackets, with a slowly emerging share of the market achieving premium prices above $800,000. Couple this trend, with a diminishing number of sales transacting under $200,000 and the improving value of the Melton house market becomes increasing evident.

House The Melton LGA house market has continued a sturdy upward trend for the third consecutive year. Closing the June 2010 six month period at $325,000, the markets median sale price has achieved an annual growth of 8.4%, while maintaining a long-term growth rate of 9.9% per annum for the past 10 years. This level of growth has seen the Melton LGA’s house market appreciate

Melton LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Melton LGA Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $350,000

Number of sales

250

$325,000

Median

1,200

$300,000

1,000

$250,000

800

$200,000

600

$150,000

400

$100,000

$300,000

Number of sales Median

$262,400 $250,000

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

$200,000 150 $150,000 100 $100,000 50

200

$50,000

$50,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

$0 2000 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

$0

2000 DEC

0 2000 DEC

Number of Sales

200

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Melton LGA

1,400

The Melton LGA unit market has grown into a substantial and robust market over the past three years, with the level of sales increasing dramatically. This increased level of activity has had a positive effect on the regions median sale price, stabilising to record a figure of $262,400 for the June 2010 half year. This median price accounted for an annual growth of 5.3%, while the 10 year growth rate of 12.1% per annum highlights the long-term performance of this market.

Attributed to a range of new residential projects in the region, sales activity for the Melton LGA house market has climbed to new heights over the past three and half years. In total, 1,157 house transactions were recorded for the LGA throughout the June 2010 half year. This represents an 8.2% increase in activity on the regions five year average of 1,069 sales per six months. The suburbs of Caroline Springs, Melton West and Melton attracted the majority of transactions, accounting for 20%, 16.5% and 12.5% of total sales respectively.


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Melton

...representing the LGA’s most established precinct, Melton and its direct neighbouring suburbs stand to reap the benefits of Melbourne’s urban sprawl

The 503 house sales recorded were well dispersed throughout the four neighbouring suburbs of Melton, Melton South, Melton West and Kurunjang, with Melton West attracting the largest portion of sales, accounting for 38%. Observing the sales by price points, 70% of total transactions were recorded within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket, while a further 21% achieved sale figures within the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket. The remaining transactions were well distributed, with $680,000 representing the top end of the market.

Vacant Land As scarcity of vacant land in the central suburbs of Melton continues to grow, the median sale price continues to appreciate well. Closing the June 2010 half year with a median price of $128,000, the market recorded an outstanding annual growth of 18.5%,

Central Melton Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle

100

$20,000

0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

$0

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

$40,000

2008 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

200

2007 JUN

$0

0

$60,000

2007 DEC

$50,000

300

2006 JUN

100

$80,000

2006 DEC

$100,000

400

2005 JUN

200

$100,000

2003 JUN

$150,000

500

2002 JUN

300

$120,000

2002 DEC

$200,000

$128,000

600

2001 JUN

400

$140,000

Number of sales Median

2000 JUN

$264,000 $250,000

700

Number of Sales

500

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

Median

Median Sale Price

Number of sales

2001 DEC

$300,000

2000 DEC

Central Melton Ten Year House Sales Cycle

2005 DEC

For the last decade, Melton and its surrounding suburbs have generally represented around 45% of the LGA’s total house market. The past 18 months in particular have resulted in a robust performance from the Melton market. Consistently high sales activity, coupled with a surging median sale price indicates resilient buyer confidence in this market.

2004 JUN

House

The suburb of Melton West attracted the majority of the markets vacant land sales and accounted for 65.7% of the total 178 transactions. The remaining sales were shared between Melton, Kurunjang and Melton South accounting for 17%, 10.5% and 6.8 respectively. In regards to vacant land price points, an overwhelming 80% of the markets total transactions were recorded within the $100,000 to $199,999 price bracket, while the remaining sales were well dispersed, with 315,000 representing the top end of transactions.

2004 DEC

Well serviced by the Western Freeway, Melton exists as a satellite city of Melbourne, situated approximately 35km south-west of the state capital. The rapid population growth being experienced in this western corridor has resulted in an increased demand for real estate in the region, pushing property prices north. Representing the LGA’s most established precinct, Melton and its direct neighbouring suburbs stand to reap the benefits of Melbourne’s urban sprawl in coming years. With population growth driving improvements in infrastructure and amenity, there lays a strong potential for appreciation in real estate values in this market.

2003 DEC

Melton and Surrounding Suburbs

600

while a 10 year growth rate of 6.4% per annum was maintained. The median sale price was achieved from a total of 178 vacant land transactions over the June 2010 half year period, representing a 43.5% softening in activity on the regions five year average of 312 sales per six months. This decline in activity can largely be attributed to a lack of supply available rather than a lack of interest in the market. This is evident due to the median sale price being pushed sharply upward through increased demand, as more buyers compete for less available land.

The June 2010 six month period recorded a median sale price of $264,000, culminated from a total of 503 transactions. This resulted in an outstanding 17.3% annual increase in the median price, while a 10 year growth rate of 9.5% per annum has been maintained. The level of sales also outperformed the regions five year average of 427 sales per six months by 18%.


Melton

...this relatively young suburb has experience exceptional growth and expansion since its emergence...due to its dominant position in one of Victoria’s strongest growth corridors

Caroline Springs and Surrounding Suburbs Caroline Springs is situated on the north-western outskirts of Melbourne’s expanding urban sprawl. Included in the LGA of Melton, this relatively young suburb has experience exceptional growth and expansion since its emergence in 1999, due to its dominant position in one of Victoria’s strongest growth corridors. The area is well serviced with the Western Freeway providing direct access into the Melbourne CBD, as well as an approved train station on the Melton Line due for completion by 2012. Caroline Springs offers a growing level of liveability, with increasing infrastructure and amenity. This maturing market and its direct neighbouring suburbs are sure to provide some exceptional investment opportunities in the coming years.

Interestingly, when comparing the Caroline Springs house market to the vacant land market, there is a clear negative correlation where house sales activity continues to rise and vacant land transactions continue to diminish. This clearly highlights the growing scarcity of vacant land in the area, as more and more homes continue to be built. This diminishing availability of vacant land in the region has resulted in a sharp rise in the markets median sale price. Closing the June 2010 half year at $232,000, the Caroline Springs vacant land market recorded an outstanding 12 month growth of 26% from a median of $184,000 twelve months earlier. The outstanding surge in value also resulted in the market achieving a 10 year growth rate of 13.9% per annum.

Despite some minor fluctuations, the level of sales activity in the Caroline Springs market has also portrayed a strong upward trend over the past decade. With a total of 486 house sales transacting in the market throughout the June 2010 six month period, activity remained reasonably on par with the regions five year average of 489 sales per six months. The 486 sales achieved were dispersed throughout the four neighbouring suburbs of Caroline Springs, Hillside, Taylors Hill and Burnside accounting for 47%, 26%, 19% and 8% respectively. The bulk of transactions were recorded within the $300,000 to $399,999 and $400,000 to $499,999 price brackets, each attracting a 36.6% share of the total market. While toward the higher end of the market, 17% of total house transactions achieved sale figures greater than $500,000.

House The Caroline Springs house market has performed exceptionally well over the past 10 years, developing robust sales activity and maintaining constant growth in the median sale price. Closing the June 2010 half year period at $408,000, Caroline Springs’ median sale price achieved an impressive annual

Caroline Springs Ten Year House Sales Cycle 700

Vacant Land

growth of 14.9%, which accounted to an appreciation of $53,000 on the corresponding period 12 months early. Analysing the markets longterm performance, a stable 10 year growth rate of 8.3 per annum has been maintained from the June 2000 median of $184,500.

From a total of 169 vacant land sales achieved throughout the June 2010 six months, 68.6% transacted within the central suburb of Caroline Springs, while Taylors Hill attracted a further 26%. Observing the sales by price points, a majority 58% of sales transacted within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket. The remaining sales were well dispersed, ranging between $115,000 and $440,000.

Caroline Springs Ten Year Vacant land Sales Cycle 1,400

$450,000

Number of sales

$408,000 $400,000

Median

600

$250,000

Number of sales Median

$232,000

1,200

$200,000

$350,000

300

$200,000 $150,000

Number of Sales

$250,000

Median Sale Price

400

$150,000

800

600

$100,000

400

200 $100,000

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

$0 2001 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2001 DEC

$0

0

$50,000 200

2000 JUN

$50,000

2000 DEC

100

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

$300,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

1,000

500


MILDURA

Property Research Report


Mildura

...as the second largest LGA in Victoria, Mildura encompasses over 22,000 square kilometres with the Murray-Sunset National Park accounting for almost a third of its total area 2009, while a more robust ten year growth rate of 6.2% per annum was maintained. This level of growth has seen the median sale price appreciate $90,000 from the June 2000 median of $110,000.

As the second largest LGA in Victoria, Mildura encompasses over 22,000 square kilometres with the MurraySunset National Park accounting for almost a third of the LGA’s total area. Located in the far north-west corner of Victoria, the Mildura LGA shares its perimeters with both the New South Wales and South Australian state borders. Within the Mildura LGA the majority of townships are congregated along the banks of the Murray River. The central township of Mildura attracts the majority of residents, providing a higher degree of liveability and amenity. A large array of affordable real estate options in the area caters to a sturdy influx of residents, which presents a strong potential for affordable investment opportunities in the region.

Vacant Land The median sale price for the Mildura LGA’s vacant land market has experienced sharp growth to close the June 2010 six month period at $83,000. This figure has seen the median price return toward the market peak of $85,000, which was recorded in June 2006 and then again in June 2008. At present, it seems as though this market may have reached a glass ceiling, with the median price experiencing notable fluctuations, while maintaining on sustained growth for the past four

House For the last half of the decade, it appears that the Mildura LGA house market has reached a plateau with the median sale price fluctuating slightly around the $200,000 market. The June 2010 half year period saw the market close with a median price of $200,000. This figure resulted in a 2.2% increase from the corresponding period of

Mildura LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle 600

Mildura LGA Ten Year Vacant Land Sales Cycle 300

$250,000

Number of sales

500

$100,000

200 $50,000

100

Number of Sales

300

$70,000

Median Sale Price

$150,000

$83,000 $80,000

250

$200,000 $200,000

400

$90,000

Number of sales Median

Median

$60,000

200

$50,000 150 $40,000 $30,000

100

$20,000 50 $10,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

0 2000 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

$0

2000 DEC

0 2000 DEC

Number of Sales

After an outstanding level of sales activity in the previous half year, the June 2010 six month period has seen the level of the LGA’s vacant land activity decline sharply to just 71 transactions. This number of sales represents a 54.5% decline from the regions five year average of 156 transactions per six month period. The sales were dispersed across 12 of the regions suburbs, with the central suburb of Mildura accounting for 52% of transactions, followed by Red Cliffs, attracting a further 20%. Sales ranged in price from $18,000 to $320,000, with the majority (52%) transacting within the $50,000 to $99,999 price bracket.

The June 2010 six month period also saw sales activity in the Mildura LGA house market tighten to its lowest level since June 2000. In total, 371 house sales transacted throughout the six months, dispersed throughout 14 suburbs in the region. The central hub of Mildura accounted for a 72.8% majority of transactions, while the neighbouring suburbs of Red Cliffs and Irymple to the south of the town centre attracted a further 7.8% and 6.7% respectively.

Half yearperiod period Half year

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Mildura LGA

years. With this being said, the longterm 10 year growth rate reflects a reasonable growth of 6.6% per annum, resulting in a $40,000 growth in value over the past decade.


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Mildura

...understood to be the centre of Victoria’s food bowl, the region’s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, with a strong focus on citrus fruits

Mildura Tucked alongside the banks of the Murray River, the suburb of Mildura is the business centre of the Mildura LGA. Approximately 475 kilometres north-west of Melbourne, Mildura is more accessible from Adelaide City in South Australia, which is roughly 330 kilometres south-west. The Sturt and Calder Highways offer access to both capitals, however Mildura stands as a self-sufficient and sustainable community of its own. Understood to be the centre of Victoria’s food bowl, the region’s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, with a strong focus on citrus fruits.

House sales in the Mildura market have experienced a steady decline in activity over the past 18 months, closing the June 2010 half year with 270 transactions. This level of sales represents a 17.2% decline on the suburbs five year average of 326 sales per six month period. The majority of house sales transacted within the $150,000 to $199,999 and $200,000 to $249,999 price brackets, accounting for 31.5% and 28% of the regions total sales respectively. Toward the high end of the market, nine of Mildura’s house transactions achieved sale figures greater than $400,000.

House

Unit

As the central hub of the LGA, the suburb of Mildura generally accounts for over 70% of the greater region’s total sales activity. As such, it is not surprising to see that the performance of the Mildura house market is strongly aligned with the greater LGA. Since late 2006, the Mildura house market has plateaued, with the median sale price remaining reasonably stable and sales activity softening slightly. Closing the June 2010 six month period at $214,000, the median figure recorded

Mildura’s unit market has performed similarly to the house market over the past decade, registering a median sale price of $164,000 during the June 2010 half year. This median accounted for an annual growth of 5.1%, while a moderate 10 year growth rate of 6.0% per annum was maintained. This level of growth suggests that the average unit in Mildura has appreciated $72,000 over the past decade, from a median sale price of $92,000 in June 2000.

Central Mildura Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Central Mildura Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $250,000

Number of sales

$180,000

Number of sales

$164,000 $160,000

Median

$214,000

100

$200,000

$150,000

250 200

$100,000

150 100

$50,000

$140,000

Number of Sales

300

Median Sale Price

350

80

$120,000 $100,000

60

$80,000 $60,000

40

$40,000 20 $20,000

50

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

$0 2000 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2000 DEC

$0

0 2000 DEC

Number of Sales

120

Median

400

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

450

The June 2010 median price culminated from a total of 59 unit transactions throughout the six month period, representing a 17% decline on the markets five year average of 71 sales per six months. Sales activity was heavily focused within the $100,000 to $149,999 and $150,000 to $199,999 price brackets, attracting 29% and 27% of the total sales respectively. The $400,000 plus price bracket attracted four unit sales with three of the four transacting for over $500,000 in a medium density development on Dockside Drive. This high end development has attracted the Mildura unit market’s top five transactions over the past 12 months, demonstrating the attainable value and potential growth of this unique market.

a modest annual growth of 4.4%, returning to the peak in median price achieved in June 2007. This level of growth has been slightly outperformed by the moderate 10 year growth rate of 6.0% per annum.


WARRNAMBOOL Property Research Report


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Warrnambool

...there is a changing dynamic in Warrnambool’s property market, with a variety of driving forces such as growing employment opportunity, improving amenity and an emerging tourism market

Situated to the western end of Victoria’s scenic Great Ocean Road, the Warrnambool LGA is approximately 265 kilometres south-west of the Melbourne CBD. Despite its regional location, Warrnambool is well serviced by the Hopkins and Princes Highways and the express ‘Vline’ rail running directly through the region. Today, Warrnambool’s picturesque landscape and patrolled beaches have resulted in an increasing focus on tourism generated business in the region. However, a strong alliance with the more traditional dairy industry remains well ingrained within the community.

The median price was attained from a total of 241 house transactions, 95% of which transacted within the central township of Warrnambool, while the remaining 5% were dispersed amongst the four neighbouring suburbs of Allansford, Bushfield, Dennington and Woodford. This level of sales has seen activity in the regions market soften 11% below the five year average of 268 transactions per six month period.

The June 2010 six months saw the median sale price of Warrnambool’s unit market climb to $255,000, culminated from a total of 63 transactions. The median figure resulted in an outstanding twelve month growth of 13.3%, while a healthy 10 year rate of 9.1% per annum was achieved. Warrnambool’s unit sales were heavily weighted within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket, which attracted 68% of the markets total sales activity. The remaining share of sales were well dispersed from an affordable $90,000 to a premium $640,000.

Observing sales activity by price points, the majority of Warrnambool’s sales transacted within the $200,000 to $299,999 and $300,000 to $399,999 price brackets, accounting for 33.6% and 32% of market share. The $400,000 to $499,999 price bracket also accounted for a reasonable share of activity, representing 17.8% of total sales, while 21 transactions achieved sale figures greater than $500,000.

House While enjoying the obvious benefits of robust population growth, the Warrnambool stretch of the Shipwreck Coast also attracts an increasing number of holiday investors to the market. Primarily from the state capital, this substantial contingency of wealthy Melbourne investors has assisted in pushing the value of Warrnambool’s property market north. Closing the June 2010 half year period at $315,000, the median sale price for houses in the Warrnambool market recorded an annual growth of 10.1%, while a robust

The minimal numbers of transactions that occur within Warrnambool’s tightly held unit market have resulted in noticeable fluctuation in the median sale price. However, the confidence portrayed in this market over the past 18 months demonstrates the potential for future growth in coming years.

Unit For the past five years, units in Warrnambool have roughly represented 15.5% of the regions residential property market. While there is a list of housing developments in the pipeline in the outer perimeter of the region, the increasing density of residents and

Warrnambool LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle Number of sales Median 300

There is a changing dynamic in Warrnambool’s property market, with a variety of driving forces such as growing employment opportunity, improving amenity and an emerging tourism market.

Warrnambool LGA Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $350,000

100

$315,000 $300,000

90

$300,000

Number of sales Median

$255,000 $250,000

200

$200,000

150

$150,000

100

$100,000

50

$50,000

70

Number of Sales

$250,000

Median Sale Price

250

$200,000

60 50

$150,000

40 $100,000

30 20

$0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

0 2000 JUN

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$50,000

10

2000 DEC

$0

0 2000 DEC

Number of Sales

80

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

Warrnambool LGA

350

holiday makers to Warrnambool’s town centre is sure to result in a surge in demand for unit type product over the coming years.

long-term growth rate of 9.1% per annum has been maintained over the past 10 years.


WERRIBEE

Property Research Report


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Werribee

...with the urban sprawl from both Melbourne and Geelong encroaching on the region...the Wyndham LGA is well positioned for continued future growth The 216 unit transactions recorded saw sales activity remain slightly above the five year average of 207 sales, and resulted in transactions remaining above 200 for the third consecutive year. Activity was distributed across 11 of the regions suburbs, with the central suburb of Werribee attracting 43.5% of total sales volume. The majority of transactions achieved sale prices within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket. However, the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket has continued to attract an increasing portion of sales, accounting for 19% throughout the June 2010 period.

2000. As mentioned above, sales activity for the Wyndham LGA house market has also remained strong throughout the June 2010 half year, recording a total of 1,609 transactions. This level of activity remains 12.8% higher than the regions five year average of 1,427 sales per six month period.

Wyndham LGA Centrally located between Melbourne and Geelong, the Wyndham LGA stretches across 542 square kilometres, encompassing 16 of Melbourne’s south-western suburbs. With the urban sprawl from both Melbourne and Geelong encroaching on the region, the Wyndham LGA’s property market has performed particularly well over the past 10 years and is positioned for continuing growth. With the convenience of the Princes Freeway offering direct access into the Melbourne CBD, the Wyndham LGA consists of a large contingency of commuting workers.

Sales were dispersed throughout 13 of the regions suburbs, with a 40.8% portion transacting within the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket. A recent shift in the bulk of sales activity away from the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket and into the $300,000 to $399,999 price bracket illustrates the appreciating value of houses in the region. From the remaining share of sales, 26.4% transacted within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket, while 12.8% achieved sales figures greater than $500,000.

House The Wyndham LGA represented one of Victoria’s strongest performing LGA’s over the past 18 months, maintaining robust sales activity and a surging median sale price. Closing the June 2010 six month period at $338,000, the LGA’s median sale price for houses has achieved 14.6% annual growth and has maintained a 10 year growth rate of 10% per annum. This rate of growth has seen the average house in the Wyndham LGA market appreciate over $200,000 during the past decade, from a median price of $130,000 back in June

Unit The Wyndham LGA unit market has gone from strength to strength in the last decade, performing particularly well over the past three years. The regions median sale price for units closed the June 2010 six months at $257,000, culminated from a total of 216 sales. This median sale price represented an annual growth of 7.1%, while registering a long-term growth rate of 9.6% per annum over the past 10 years.

Wyndham LGA Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Wyndham LGA Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle

Number of sales

$400,000

350

$350,000 $338,000

300

1,600

Median

$300,000

$200,000

800

$150,000

600 $100,000

Number of Sales

1,000

$257,000 $250,000

250

Median Sale Price

$250,000

1,200

$200,000 200 $150,000 150

$100,000 100

400

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

2003 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

$0

0 2000 JUN

$0

0

$50,000

50

2000 DEC

$50,000

200

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

1,400

$300,000

Number of sales

Median

1,800

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

2,000

Strong amenity, quality infrastructure and the general standard of living on offer in the Wyndham LGA has resulted in a rapid population growth for the area in recent years. With this lift in demand applying increasing pressure for medium density projects, look to see the Wyndham LGA’s unit market flourish in coming years.


Werribee

...Werribee continues to emerge as one of Victoria’s top performing precincts...expect increases in the demand, supply and the value of property in this market in coming years

Werribee Situated within the Wyndham LGA, Werribee is located on the Werribee River, approximately 32 kilometres south-west of Melbourne’s CBD. The region is well serviced by rail and the Princes Freeway, both providing direct access to Melbourne in the north-east and Geelong to the southwest. To portray a succinct overview of the Werribee market, the direct neighbouring suburbs of Werribee have been incorporated into the central suburbs analysis.

The June 2010 half year saw an upward shift in the majority of Werribee’s house sales from the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket into the $300,000 to $399,999 bracket, which accounted for 28.7% and 41.4% of total sales respectively. As the Werribee region continues to develop, entry level house product in this market is quickly exceeding $200,000, while an emerging premium market of $800,000 plus is beginning to transpire.

House In alignment with the Wyndham LGA, the central Werribee market continues to emerge as one of Victoria’s best performing precincts. The house market has continued on a two year surge, closing the June 2010 half year at a median sale price of $330,000. This figure equates to an annual increase of 13.8% from the June 2009 median of $290,000, while a 10 year growth rate of 9.6% per annum was maintained.

The June 2010 half year period saw Werribee’s unit market continue to grow in volume and stability, achieving a median sale price of $252,000. This median figure amounted to a 12 month growth of 7.2%, while a robust 10 year growth rate of 9.4% per annum was maintained. Although unit sales activity for the region has declined sharply from a peak in the market six months prior, the June 2010 period has recorded a substantial

Greater Werribee Ten Year House Sales Cycle

Greater Werribee Ten Year Unit Sales Cycle $350,000

Number of sales

300

$330,000

Median 1,400

$300,000

Number of sales Median

250

$252,000 $250,000

200

$200,000

150

$150,000

100

$100,000

50

$50,000

$300,000

1,200

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

0 2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

$0 2003 DEC

2010 JUN

2009 JUN

2009 DEC

2008 JUN

2008 DEC

2007 JUN

2007 DEC

2006 JUN

2006 DEC

2005 JUN

2005 DEC

2004 JUN

2004 DEC

2003 JUN

2003 DEC

2002 JUN

2002 DEC

2001 JUN

2001 DEC

2000 JUN

$0

2002 JUN

0

2002 DEC

$50,000

200

2001 JUN

$100,000

400

2001 DEC

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Live

Median Sale Price

$150,000 600

2000 JUN

800

2000 DEC

$200,000

Number of Sales

1,000

Median Sale Price

$250,000

2000 DEC

Number of Sales

The Werribee unit market has experienced steady growth over the past decade; however, only in recent years have we seen this market really begin to perform. As the central hub of the Wyndham LGA, the Werribee market will be the first to experience the affect of the regions densifying population. Expect increases in the demand, supply and the value of property in this market over coming years.

Unit

Sales activity in the Werribee house market has also remained exceptionally strong over the past 18 months clearly demonstrating a growing demand for real estate in the Werribee region. The June 2010 six months saw a

1,600

187 unit transactions. This level of activity reflects a 5% improvement on the regions five year average of 178 sales per six months. The central suburb of Werribee accounted for 50% of the markets total unit sales, while Hoppers Crossing, Point Cook and Tarneit accounted for a further 17.6%, 15.5% and 11.2% of total sales respectively. Observing sales by price points, activity was heavily weighted within the $200,000 to $299,999 price bracket, recording 66% of the regions unit sales.

total of 1,389 house sales transact, outperforming the markets five year average of 1,247 per six months by 11%. Sales activity was well distributed throughout the neighbouring suburbs, with Werribee, Hoppers Crossing and Point Cook attracting the largest share of sales with 25%, 23.3% and 22.5% respectively.


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Suburb

LGA

No. Sales Jun-09 six months

Jun-09 Median Sale Price

No. Sales Jun-10 six months

Jun-10 Median Sale Price

Annual Growth

5yr Growth Rate per Annum

10yr Growth Rate per Annum

Regional Victoria Suburb Summary

ALFREDTON

Ballarat (C)

83

$300,000

85

$302,500

0.8%

0.2%

9.2%

BALLARAT

Ballarat (C)

341

$224,000

301

$250,000

11.6%

4.6%

10.2%

BALLARAT EAST

Ballarat (C)

30

$218,750

24

$237,500

8.6%

NA

NA

BALLARAT NORTH

Ballarat (C)

33

$230,000

20

$243,500

5.9%

-5.2%

5.7%

BLACK HILL

Ballarat (C)

17

$265,000

17

$260,000

-1.9%

NA

NA

BROWN HILL

Ballarat (C)

25

$242,000

16

$267,500

10.5%

8.9%

NA

BUNINYONG

Ballarat (C)

23

$257,000

25

$320,000

24.5%

6.7%

9.9%

CANADIAN

Ballarat (C)

13

$265,000

15

$332,000

25.3%

5.2%

NA

DELACOMBE

Ballarat (C)

48

$265,000

41

$265,000

0.0%

3.3%

6.6%

LAKE GARDENS

Ballarat (C)

24

$355,000

23

$350,000

-1.4%

4.1%

NA

MINERS REST

Ballarat (C)

32

$266,000

20

$315,000

18.4%

7.4%

NA

MOUNT CLEAR

Ballarat (C)

29

$227,500

23

$257,000

13.0%

5.7%

7.7%

MOUNT HELEN

Ballarat (C)

15

$305,000

23

$313,500

2.8%

3.4%

8.9%

MOUNT PLEASANT

Ballarat (C)

18

$205,975

10

$208,750

1.4%

NA

NA

NERRINA

Ballarat (C)

10

$299,000

11

$287,000

-4.0%

NA

NA

REDAN

Ballarat (C)

23

$190,000

16

$210,000

10.5%

NA

NA

SEBASTOPOL

Ballarat (C)

131

$210,000

82

$219,750

4.7%

4.1%

9.8%

SOLDIERS HILL

Ballarat (C)

19

$225,000

33

$266,000

18.2%

NA

NA

WENDOUREE

Ballarat (C)

135

$195,000

98

$224,950

15.4%

3.7%

9.2%

BENDIGO

Greater Bendigo (C)

259

$225,000

219

$265,000

17.8%

5.8%

10.2%

CALIFORNIA GULLY

Greater Bendigo (C)

38

$192,000

30

$211,000

9.9%

3.8%

NA

EAGLEHAWK

Greater Bendigo (C)

67

$215,000

56

$225,000

4.7%

3.4%

10.1%

ELMORE

Greater Bendigo (C)

14

$156,500

11

$162,000

3.5%

6.2%

NA

EPSOM

Greater Bendigo (C)

35

$260,000

31

$310,000

19.2%

5.5%

10.1%

FLORA HILL

Greater Bendigo (C)

23

$258,000

30

$265,000

2.7%

4.3%

9.7%

GOLDEN SQUARE

Greater Bendigo (C)

90

$218,750

77

$250,000

14.3%

4.6%

9.9%

HEATHCOTE

Greater Bendigo (C)

33

$165,000

17

$220,000

33.3%

5.9%

8.9%

HUNTLY

Greater Bendigo (C)

22

$188,000

10

$309,250

64.5%

6.1%

10.0%

JUNORTOUN

Greater Bendigo (C)

10

$380,000

18

$407,500

7.2%

18.1%

NA


Suburb

LGA

No. Sales Jun-09 six months

Jun-09 Median Sale Price

No. Sales Jun-10 six months

Jun-10 Median Sale Price

Annual Growth

5yr Growth Rate per Annum

10yr Growth Rate per Annum

Regional Victoria Suburb Summary

KANGAROO FLAT

Greater Bendigo (C)

122

$226,500

95

$240,000

6.0%

3.7%

7.8%

KENNINGTON

Greater Bendigo (C)

31

$260,000

25

$279,000

7.3%

6.4%

8.8%

LONG GULLY

Greater Bendigo (C)

21

$175,000

18

$186,500

6.6%

2.1%

11.2%

MAIDEN GULLY

Greater Bendigo (C)

25

$355,000

18

$330,000

-7.0%

2.3%

7.8%

NORTH BENDIGO

Greater Bendigo (C)

16

$212,250

15

$225,000

6.0%

NA

NA

SPRING GULLY

Greater Bendigo (C)

14

$257,000

20

$292,000

13.6%

3.2%

6.8%

STRATHDALE

Greater Bendigo (C)

39

$310,000

30

$332,500

7.3%

5.2%

9.3%

STRATHFIELDSAYE

Greater Bendigo (C)

48

$301,000

51

$340,000

12.9%

5.4%

7.6%

WHITE HILLS

Greater Bendigo (C)

18

$225,000

22

$244,500

8.7%

6.4%

8.5%

BARWON HEADS

Greater Geelong (C)

62

$497,500

52

$595,000

19.6%

8.8%

14.0%

BELL PARK

Greater Geelong (C)

51

$250,000

32

$296,000

18.4%

5.2%

13.0%

BELL POST HILL

Greater Geelong (C)

43

$267,000

35

$297,500

11.4%

6.0%

10.7%

BELMONT

Greater Geelong (C)

122

$273,550

117

$330,000

20.6%

6.4%

11.1%

CLIFTON SPRINGS

Greater Geelong (C)

105

$270,000

107

$307,000

13.7%

5.0%

10.1%

CORIO

Greater Geelong (C)

159

$191,500

157

$217,000

13.3%

5.6%

11.1%

DRYSDALE

Greater Geelong (C)

43

$360,000

35

$325,000

-9.7%

3.5%

8.2%

EAST GEELONG

Greater Geelong (C)

56

$319,003

44

$343,750

7.7%

7.4%

11.5%

GEELONG

Greater Geelong (C)

47

$390,000

38

$455,500

16.8%

5.4%

10.7%

GEELONG WEST

Greater Geelong (C)

95

$341,000

58

$395,000

15.8%

7.3%

12.3%

GROVEDALE

Greater Geelong (C)

144

$287,000

118

$335,000

16.7%

5.9%

10.0%

HAMLYN HEIGHTS

Greater Geelong (C)

62

$286,300

49

$338,000

18.1%

8.2%

11.1%

HERNE HILL

Greater Geelong (C)

33

$275,000

31

$310,000

12.7%

7.0%

11.4%

HIGHTON

Greater Geelong (C)

181

$350,000

145

$432,000

23.4%

6.2%

10.9%

INDENTED HEAD

Greater Geelong (C)

26

$300,000

23

$325,000

8.3%

4.6%

14.2%

LARA

Greater Geelong (C)

134

$285,250

99

$321,000

12.5%

3.9%

9.0%

LEOPOLD

Greater Geelong (C)

89

$293,000

86

$335,000

14.3%

6.0%

9.5%

MANIFOLD HEIGHTS

Greater Geelong (C)

21

$410,500

16

$400,500

-2.4%

8.0%

11.9%

MARSHALL

Greater Geelong (C)

18

$274,500

17

$370,000

34.8%

9.0%

NA


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Notes


Notes


REGIONALVICTORIA2010

Notes


Our Offices PRD Jens Gaunt Ballarat

PRDnationwide Lara

51 Lydiard Street South, Ballarat Vic 3350 Neil Jens (Founder, Director, CEO) M: 0418 503 317 E: ballarat@prd.com.au P: 03 5331 1111 W: www.prdballarat.com.au

1 Station Lake Road, Lara Vic 3212 Tony McManus(Director) M: 0417 334 434 E: lara@prd.com.au P: 03 5282 3000 W: www.prdlara.com.au

PRD Jens Gaunt Bendigo

PRD Jens Gaunt Maryborough

53 Myers Street, Bendigo Vic 3550 Rodney Devlin (Director) M: 0418 361 93 E: bendigo@prd.com.au P: 03 5444 0344 W: www.prdbendigo.com.au

92 High Street, Maryborough Vic 3465 Nicole Simpson (Director) M: 0417 551 342 E: maryborough@prd.com.au P: 03 5331 1111 W: www.prdmaryborough.com.au

PRD Jens Gaunt Buninyong

PRD Jens Gaunt Melton

511 Warrenheip Street, Buninyong Vic 3357 Phil Crosbie (Sales Consultant) M: 0407 542 289 E: buninyong@prd.com.au P: 03 5341 2200 W: www.prdbuninyong.com.au

275 High Street, Melton Vic 3337 Michael Bevan (Director) M: 0418 375 325 E: melton@prd.com.au P: 03 9747 6665 W: ww.prdmelton.com.au

PRDnationwide Caroline Spring

PRDnationwide Mildura

1/234 Caroline Springs Boulevard, Caroline Springs Vic 3023 Andrew Majdlik (General Manager) M: 0412 883 057 E: reception@prdcarolineprings.com.au P: 03 8390 0077 W: www.prdcarolinesprings.com.au

119 Langtree Avenue, Mildura Vic 3500 Richard Wyatt (Director) M: 0414 600 035 E: info@prdmildura.com.au P: 03 5022 7750 W: www.prdmildura.com.au

PRD Jens Gaunt Creswick

PRD Jens Gaunt Warrnambool

63 Albert Street, Creswick Vic 3363 Brenden Barclay (Director, Sales Manager) M: 0409 410 911 E: creswick@prd.com.au P: 03 5345 2326 W: www.prdcreswick.com.au

174 Timor Street, Warrnambool Vic 3280 Brad Miller (Director) M: 0409 859 967 E: warrnambool@prd.com.au P: 03 5562 2444 W: www.prdwarrnambool.com.au

PRDnationwide Geelong

PRD Jens Gaunt Werribee

86 Ryrie Street, Geelong Vic 3220 Alex Campbell (Director, General Manager) M: 0400 509 341 E: geelong@prdgeelong.com.au P: 03 5222 3566 W: www.prdgeelong.com.au

2/85 Synnot Street, Werribee Vic 3030 Rohan Smith (Principal) M: 0412 864 525 E: werribee@prd.com.au P: 03 9742 7557 W: www.prdwerribee.com.au

PRD Jens Gaunt Kyneton

PRDnationwide Research

2 High Street, Kyneton Vic 3444 Rodney Devlin (Director) M: 0418 361 935 E: kyneton@prd.com.au P: 03 5422 2127 W: www.prdkyneton.com.au

Level 5 10 Market Street, Brisbane Qld 4000 P: 07 3229 3344

E: prdresearch@prd.com.au W: www.prdresearch.com.au


REGIONALVICTORIA2010 - Property Research Report This report provides an in-depth analysis into the trends and performances of Regional Victoria’s property market. Paying particular focus on the individual regions where PRD franchises are currently operating. These include the Local Government Areas of Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Greater Geelong, The Macedon Ranges, Melton, Mildura, Warrnambool and Wyndham.

BALLARAT • BENDIGO • BUNINYONG • CAROLINE SPRINGS • MELTON • CRESWICK GEELONG • KYNETON • MILDURA • WARRNAMBOOL • WERRIBEE


PRDnationwide Regional Victoria 2010