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Third Quarter │2012

CARINA AREA Property WatchÂŽ

CARINA AREA MARKET OVERVIEW The following Property Watch report is the result of an investigation into the historic and current market trends of the Carina Area, defined by the suburbs of the 4152 post code; Carina, Carina Heights, Camp Hill and Carindale. Sales activity across the Carina Area house market remains subdued for the April 2012 half year period, with sales improving a marginal 1.6 per cent from the previous year to register a total of 206 settled transactions. The median price of $667,760 recorded for the April period reflects the markets appetite for more affordably priced houses. Long term median price growth has been very modest, with notable corrections experienced during 2008 and 2011 resulting in a five year average annual growth rate of just 3.4 per cent.

Westfield Carindale Redevelopment

MARKET INDICATORS Change from Last

Year

Half Year

HOUSE SALES

The House Price Points chart indicates a marked expansion in the level of sales activity within the sub $500,000 market over the past three years, as vendors discount their properties to meet the market causing a shift into the lower price range. A contraction in sales activity has been evidenced within the $800,000 plus price range, reiterating the current markets sensitivity to high prices and expectation for better value in the marketplace. Increased mortgage affordability resulting from consecutive interest rate cuts since November 2011 (on hold at 3.5 per cent as at August 2012) also appears to have made a positive impact to impeding a further decline in activity during the April 2012 period, as lenders continue to pass on these rate cuts (mostly in part) and develop more flexible, better value mortgage products. With that being said, the lack of listings across the Carina Area house market will continue to anchor sales volumes for the rest of 2012, as vendors remain reluctant to list their properties or meet current buyer expectations until market fundamentals improve.

CARINA AREA HOUSE SALES CYCLE 600

HOUSE MEDIAN

$700,000

Number of sales Median

HOUSE RENTS

500

UNIT SALES

400

$600,000 $557,750

Median sale price

$200,000

100

$100,000

2012 APR

2011 APR

2011 OCT

2010 APR

2010 OCT

2009 APR

2009 OCT

2008 APR

2008 OCT

2007 APR

2007 OCT

2006 APR

2006 OCT

2005 APR

2005 OCT

2004 APR

2004 OCT

$0

2003 APR

0

2003 OCT

The indicators depicted above are based on the year ending April 2012, except for aggregate rental indicators which reflect quarterly data up to June 2012.

$300,000 200

2002 APR

UNIT RENTS

$400,000

300

2002 OCT

UNIT MEDIAN

Number of sales

$500,000

Half year period

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

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HOUSE PRICE POINTS 2010 APR At least $800,000

21%

$750,000 to $799,999

Price points

2010 OCT 18%

6%

$700,000 to $749,999

9%

$550,000 to $599,999

10%

$500,000 to $549,999

17%

Less than $500,000

9%

18%

8%

6%

6%

8%

5%

8%

9%

14%

10%

13%

13%

13%

19%

15%

18%

18%

0%

5%

7%

12%

15%

7%

10%

9%

2012 APR

13%

5%

11%

$600,000 to $649,999

2011 OCT

18%

7%

9%

$650,000 to $699,999

2011 APR

23%

20%

31%

40%

29%

60%

80%

100%

Portion of total sales

The Carina Area unit market has demonstrated a remarkable 78.6 per cent uplift in sales activity during the year to 30 April 2012, registering a total of 100 transactions during the April 2012 half year period. Whilst the unit market remains quite small in the Carina Area, comprising mostly townhouse product, the median price differential that exists between the house and unit market is perhaps driving many to consider purchasing the latter. The median price recorded for the unit market was $472,500 for the April 2012 period, representing a marginal softening of 3.6 per cent from the April 2011 period. The long term median price trend has been rather stagnant over the past five years though still managed to achieve positive average annual growth of 3.4 per cent, likened to the house market. The Unit Price Points chart indicates a modest increase in buyer activity within the sub $350,000 price range over the past three years, with the $450,000 to $499,999 remaining the most transacted price range. There was also a notable contraction in activity for premium unit stock, with the $650,000 plus price range accounting for only 2 per cent of sales.

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

CARINA AREA UNIT SALES CYCLE

UNIT PRICE POINTS 2010 APR

2010 OCT

2011 APR

2011 OCT

180

2012 APR

$600,000

Number of sales Median

At least $650,000

3%

10%

9%

4%

160

2%

$500,000

$550,000 to $599,999

3%

8%

9%

$500,000 to $549,999

29%

$450,000 to $499,999

32%

2%

10%

14%

16%

26%

$400,000 to $449,999

12%

20%

$350,000 to $399,999

6%

9%

7%

30%

14%

27%

18%

120

9%

17%

35%

23%

13%

22%

11%

$472,500

140

3%

5%

$400,000

100 $300,000 80 60

$200,000

Median sale price

10%

Number of sales

40 $100,000

80%

100%

2012 APR

2011 APR

2011 OCT

2010 APR

2010 OCT

2009 APR

2009 OCT

2008 APR

2008 OCT

2007 APR

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

2007 OCT

2002 APR

$0

2006 APR

0

Portion of total sales

2006 OCT

60%

20

2005 APR

40%

10%

2005 OCT

7%

2004 APR

20%

5%

2004 OCT

0%

4%

2003 APR

6%

2003 OCT

Less than $350,000

2002 OCT

Price points

$600,000 to $649,999

Half year period

MEDIAN RENTS – 4152 PC 2010 JUN

2011 JUN

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

2012 JUN

Investor activity across the Carina Area property market remains subdued, despite moderate to high median rental price escalations over the past three years. Four bedroom houses outperformed during the June 2012 quarter, commanding an additional $50 rent (12 per cent) from the level recorded in June 2010. The unit market also faired reasonably well with three bedroom townhouses recording an extra $40 rent (10 per cent) from the level recorded in June 2010. While rents have increased across the board, high purchase prices are transpiring to comparatively weak investment yields, encouraging many investors to look to seek alternative property markets. Enquiry levels from end users have increased since the beginning of 2012 with increased mortgage affordability and an improvement in confidence likely to underpin further activity.

$410 3 Bed (House)

$420 $420 $510

Dwelling type

4 Bed (House)

$530

$570 $330 2 Bed (Unit)

$350

MOST ACTIVE SUBURBS FOR THE APRIL 2012 HALF YEAR

$350

House market $400 3 Bed (Townhouse)

HY Apr-12

Annual Change

Camp Hill

105

9%

Carindale

81

8%

Carina

52

-13%

Carina Heights

22

-12%

$425

Median rent Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

$600

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$-

$440

No. House Sales

Unit Market

No. Unit Sales HY Apr-12

Annual Change

Carina

39

34%

Carina Heights

25

92%

Carindale

21

163%

Camp Hill

15

150%

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Research Analyst │Robert Matta P (07) 3026 3357 F (07) 3166 0457 E robertmatta@prd.com.au Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS, ABS, Residential Tenancy Authority. PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnationwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2012

Carina Area Property Watch 2012 Q3  

Sales activity across the Carina Area unit market has improved considerably in the April 2012 half year period, however sales remain stagnan...

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