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Third Quarter │2013

BENDIGO AREA Property Watch®

BENDIGO AREA MARKET OVERVIEW

GREATER BENDIGO LGA REGIONAL MAP

The following Property Watch report is the result of an investigation into the historic and current market trends of the Bendigo Local Government Area (LGA) highlighting the area’s characteristics and trends to provide an understanding of the current market as well as aid in forecasting future house, unit and vacant land markets for the Bendigo Area. The Bendigo Area house markets transaction activity has been steady over the past five year period, recording an average of 869 transactions per six month period. In the twelve month period to July 2013 the Bendigo Area house market recorded 1,705 transactions, fifteen more settlements than the year prior. This negligible shift in transactions is reflective of the five year annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent. The Bendigo Area median house price, like the annual transaction figures have flat-lined since the July 2012 period to finish the subsequent 2013 period with a $295,000 median house price. Despite no median price change in the last twelve months, the annual six per cent median price increase recorded over the past five years can be expected to resume, gently shifting the Bendigo Area house market forward as consumer and development confidence and continued urban sprawl of the region is anticipated.

HOUSE PRICE POINTS

Price point

2011 JUL

2012 JAN

2012 JUL

4%

6%

2013 JAN

2013 JUL

At least $500,000

4%

$450,000 to $499,999

3%

$400,000 to $449,999

6%

5%

7%

7%

7%

$350,000 to $399,999

10%

9%

11%

11%

13%

$300,000 to $349,999

17%

18%

$250,000 to $299,999

25%

$200,000 to $249,999

21%

Less than $200,000

13%

0%

4%

4%

21%

28%

13%

20%

40%

5%

4%

4%

21%

26%

20%

5%

18%

9%

The Greater City of Bendigo council have recently released structure plans aiming to develop and shape the growth of the city with the long-term view to address features such as housing areas, places for business and economic development, open spaces and recreation, transport, community facilities and infrastructure. Strathfieldsaye, Maiden Gully and Huntly have all been earmarked to extend the boundaries of Bendigo urban footprint and will see the greatest addition with a minimum 800 dwellings per year coming online before 2017 resulting in the Bendigo Area house market moving forward.

21%

26%

27%

16%

17%

10%

60%

The relative security of the Bendigo Area housing market is endorsed by the house price points registering little to no change in the past 24 months. Despite a slight decline in affordable house transactions, the Bendigo Area market remains directed by the $250,000 to $350,000 market which at July 2013 recorded 48 per cent market share.

80%

BENDIGO AREA HOUSE AND UNIT SALES CYCLE

8%

House Sales

100%

Proportion of total sales

Unit Sales

House Median

Unit Median

1,400

$350,000

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

1,200

$300,000 $295,000

Year

1,000

Half Year

HOUSE SALES HOUSE MEDIAN

Number of sales

Change from Last

$250,000 $229,500

800

$200,000

600

$150,000

400

$100,000

200

$50,000

Median sale price

MARKET INDICATORS

LAND SALES

The indicators depicted above are based on the year ending 31 July 2013.

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2013 JUL

2012 JUL

2013 JAN

2011 JUL

2012 JAN

2010 JUL

2011 JAN

2009 JUL

2010 JAN

2008 JUL

2009 JAN

2007 JUL

2008 JAN

2006 JUL

2007 JAN

2005 JUL

2006 JAN

2004 JUL

$0

2005 JAN

UNIT MEDIAN

0

2003 JUL

UNIT SALES

2004 JAN

LAND MEDIAN

Half year period Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

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TOP 10 SUBURBS (% SALES) ANNUAL CHANGE July 2012-2013 25.0%

Jul-13

Jul-12

20.0%

8.5%

10.7%

8.5%

8.3%

10.3%

10.7%

8.5%

13.5%

10.2%

8.4%

5.0%

11.5%

12.7%

11.1%

13.2%

15.8%

20.9% 14.2%

23.4%

22.6%

10.0%

20.8%

15.0%

0.0%

UNIT PRICE POINTS 2011 JUL At least $280,000

$260,000 to $279,999

Price point

2012 JAN

23%

4%

$240,000 to $259,999

8%

7%

9%

9%

Less than $160,000

17%

10%

13%

15%

$160,000 to $179,999

10%

11%

10%

14%

10%

16%

3%

16%

20%

13%

15%

11%

9%

0%

20%

11%

17%

16%

12%

$180,000 to $199,999

2013 JUL

24%

13%

12%

18%

$200,000 to $219,999

2013 JAN

19%

7%

10%

$220,000 to $239,999

2012 JUL

16%

6%

8%

19%

40%

10%

60%

6%

80%

100%

Proportion of total sales Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

BENDIGO RENTAL REGIONS MEDIAN RENT (JUNE 2013)

The Bendigo Area top ten performing suburbs chart represents the individual suburbs market share of house transactions in the twelve month period ending July 2013 compared with the twelve months prior. Of the suburbs that recorded positive growth in the past year, Kangaroo Flat and Eaglehawk recorded strong increases to close the year with 22.6 and 13.2 per cent market share respectively. Northern fringe suburb of California Gully recorded the largest increase in transactions registering a 3.1 per cent increase in market share to close the July 2013 year with 11.5 per cent share of the house market. Interestingly, the established inner city suburbs of Golden Square (-2.6%), Bendigo (-1.6%) and Kennington (-0.8%) recorded the notable declines in transaction activity in the last twelve months, suggesting the urban sprawl toward the outer Bendigo Area suburbs is set to continue as Bendigo’s long term growth strategy is implemented. The Bendigo Area unit market has witnessed a negative 0.2 per cent per annum sales rate since July 2008, yet recording a 5.0 per cent annual median price increase over the same time to close the July 2013 six month period at $229,500. In the first half of 2013, the unit markets median price has flattened largely due to the decline in the entry level sub-$160,000 unit market, historically a stronger price point for the region. Referring to the price point chart it can be reasoned that the sweet spot has shifted in the past twenty four months with the $180,000-$199,999 price point enjoying nine per cent greater interest while the higher end market between $240,000 and $279,999 has registered a ten per cent increase. As the Bendigo Area unit market continues to provide a large range of townhouse and unit product across the vast majority of the Bendigo Area, a maintained interest across the price points will linger, and with it a gradual market incline. In the annual rental reporting period to June 2013 the Bendigo Area rental market witnessed an overall house and unit listing increase of seventeen and seven per cent respectively. The Bendigo Area rental market, consisting of four sub-markets has remained sound when compared with the rental figures recorded closing June 2012. Of the sub-markets, North Bendigo provided approximately 30 per cent of the rental market and remains the most affordable while the Flora Hill and Bendigo East comprised the majority 35 per cent yet also demanded the higher median rents of $300 per week for the six month period ending June 2013.

BENDIGO AREA VACANT LAND SALES CYCLE $275

700

$210

$140,000 Land Sales

$290 $240

$300

$132,250

Land Median

600

$120,000

500

$100,000

400

$80,000

300

$60,000

200

$40,000

100

$20,000

$250

$300

VACANT LAND PRICE POINTS

Price point

$160,000 to $179,999

2%

$140,000 to $159,999

3%

9%

4%

12%

10%

18%

17%

$100,000 to $119,999

28%

27%

30%

Less than $80,000

5%

0%

13%

38%

18%

4%

40%

21%

31%

28%

21%

14%

4%

60%

Proportion of total sales Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

9%

4%

80%

2013 JUL

2012 JUL

2013 JAN

2011 JUL

2012 JAN

2010 JUL

2011 JAN

2009 JUL

Half year period Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

15%

16%

$0

2010 JAN

4%

9%

20%

5%

20%

3%

8%

$120,000 to $139,999

$80,000 to $99,999

2%

0

2008 JUL

3%

18%

2009 JAN

4%

12%

2007 JUL

4%

2013 JUL

2008 JAN

$180,000 to $199,999

5%

2013 JAN

2006 JUL

5%

2012 JUL

2007 JAN

At least $200,000

2012 JAN

2003 JUL

2011 JUL

2005 JUL

$200

2006 JAN

$150

2004 JUL

$100

Median Rent (House v Unit)

2005 JAN

$50

2004 JAN

$0

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: RP Data.

Median sale price

$290 $220

Number of sales

$234

100%

The Bendigo Area vacant land market has continued its increase in median price registering a 6.8 per cent per annum increase over the past five years to close the July 2013 six month period with a median price of $132,250. This positive shift is largely due to the increase in sales greater than $200,000 now registering 18 per cent of market share, paired with the decline in affordable vacant land sales under $100,000 witnessing a 24 per cent decline in market share since July 2011.

Research Analyst │Angus McLean P (07) 3026 3357 F (07) 3166 0457 E angusmclean@prd.com.au PRDnationwide Bendigo │ Tom Isaacs P (03) 5444 0344 E bendigo@prd.com.au Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS, ABS, Residential Tenancy Authority. PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnationwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2013

Bendigo Area Property Watch Q3 2013  
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