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HS2: ON THE RIGHT TRACK OR JUST A GRAND FOLLY? SPECIAL EDITION Barber Rachel

Hough Sophie

Carbajo María Paz

Wherry Beth

Ana Cordon

MMU

10 Feb 2014


MMU BARBER RACHEL: 11001586 CARBAJO MARIA PAZ: 13158403 CORDÓN ANA: 13158406 HOUGH SOPHIE: 11031067 WHERRY BETH: 10454540


contents - Issues about HS2 mega-project

- Cost-Benefit Analysis - Value for Money

- Uncertainty/Ambiguity - HS2: Yes or No? - Reflection - References

contents


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There are some issues which affect the Crossrail line, but we will deepen in those we consider more significant.

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Cost- Benefit Analysis The Cost -Benefit Analysis is extremely important to know the viability and profitability of a project. “In most Western countries cost-benefit Analysis (CBA) is the method used for evaluations of transport infrastructure projects� (Hayashi and Morisugi, 2000). Presented below is the Cost-Benefit Analysis of2:HS


WHAT ABOUT OTHER MEGA-PROJECTS? OLYMPIC GAMES, LONDON 2012.

Are the Olympic Games host cities winners or losers? It has not yet been confirmed. Nevertheless, one thing is certain: Olympic Games in 2012 costs London more than what was projected. with HS2? There is a general agreement that the Olympics have not given many benefits as expected, or that investments have not been as profitable as they thought. This is the most immediate mega-project in terms of time and geography. Can we expect a similar result with HS2?


Value for Money Flyvbjerg quoted it is “clear that many such projects (megaprojects) have strikingly poor performance records in terms of economy, environment and public support. Cost overruns and lower-than-predicted revenues frequently place project viability at risk”. Will HS2 be another poor performer? The famous Channel Tunnel soared 80% over its estimated costs, was completed a year behind target and had much lower-than-expected tunnel traffic. Blame was placed upon failure to anticipate airlines and ferry companies adjusting their pricing and higher-than-expected costs of digging. Was this lack of planning and forecasting? Or an issue of uncertainty and risk that no megaproject can truly plan for? Ultimately, the Chunnel did not reach its value for money targets, and was left in huge debts. London 2012 Olympic Games success was originally doubted, with the public thinking London could not support such high expectations in such troubled economic times. The Games exceeded initial budgets, however came in under cost of final forecasts thanks to a drop in security, transport and construction expenses , ultimately The Games proved a huge success, in value for money and patriotism, despite exceeding original targets. Mega projects such as HS2 are under constant scrutiny, and so they should be, estimated to cost taxpayers a whopping £42.6 billion and in October 2013 the benefit-cost ratio fell from £2.50 to £2.30 for every pound spent, are things heading down hill as well as down south for this megaproject? Main factors HS2 supporters claim that will emerge from this development include projected growth for cities, especially Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, crucial space on crowded journeys and even positive environmental effects. All of these contribute to one of the main aims – being value for money. However the benefitcost ratio has already been lowered, budget has already had to be increased by £10bn, and many think this budget is still not enough to cover the lawsuits predicted. It seems only time will tell if value for money will be one of the positive outcomes. Margaret Hodge, Chairwoman for The Public Accounts Committee, lacked enthusiasm for the project, saying “The pattern so far has been for costs to spiral”. Public attitude towards megaprojects is not particularly positive, with many viewing them as a waste of taxpayers money, especially when they drastically exceed budgets. Will Sir David Higgins bring as much success to this proproved right again?


Uncertainty/Ambiguity Megaprojects as HS2 take several years to be finished, so decision-makers face a situation where it is unreasonable to presume an unchanging reality and in which future events or outcomes are unknown and unknowable. Therefore, it is impossible to avoid uncertainty because some information will only exist once decisions have been made and their effects felt. Some uncertain issues concerning HS2 are:

network might not be there. There can be a new technology that means you David Higgins (Chief executive of HS2) has said that by 20 years ago it was said videoconferences were going to reduce rail traffic and in the last 10 years there has been a 50% of growth in passenger traffic in rail.

Sir David Higgins is currently working on a plan to deliver HS2 project more quickly, saving costs and getting benefits from the North earlier. However, some unpredictable contingencies during the execution of the project can cause delays in the expected schedule. Additionally, nothing can start in earnest until a bill is approved by Parliament. It's intended to be passed before the next general election in 2015, but it's so complex that there is no MP who thinks they'll hit that deadline. And that's just for the first phase to Birmingham. Phase two will need its own separate bill.

public money to spend? This is the case of Panama Channel Megaproject, it was planned to use the materials obtained in the excavation to build it. Nevertheless, this has not been finally allowed by authorities so it has been necessary to exploit others quarries what has caused considerable increases of the cost and delays because nowadays the construction is stop.


The new railway must be a national project so crossed party support is essential to unanimous support to the project in the Parliament so far, which causes some uncertainties if the government changes in 2015. Labour party has announced they project if goes beyond the current budget.


HS2: Yes or No? HS2 YES HS2 is going to cost the UK around ÂŁ50bn, but will benefit the UK immensely from the changes. Sir David Higgins has stated that his priorities were to build permanent jobs in areas that demand them the most, also boost the economy significantly. When the entire network is finished it will create ÂŁ13.3bn in wider

in skills needed to construct the railway, this college is to open in 2017. This is a

moving overseas which has happened in the past. Our argument is yes we believe the project will go ahead, as HS2 is moving us into the future. It maybe costing the UK billions to put in place but in the longterm, the UK will be considerably better off in terms of economic fortunes with the railway in place. HS2 will generate, inter-city rail network intended to ease an older and progressively over crowded West Coast main line, expand economies and guarantee the UK continues to be globally competitive. HS2 would ease these overcrowded West Coast trains and provide a more relaxed easy journey. -

London currently has soaring house prices. From HS2 there will be a smaller amount of cars on the clogged motorways, which will benefit the environment from reducing CO2 levels. There have been mega projects in the past such as, the Olympics which was thought of as not going ahead, but in the end the UK benefited from this as it brought tourists into the country. This also boosted the UKs economy by ÂŁ9.9bn Olympic stadium is still in use to this day for various different activities. The Olympics and Paralympics over 100,000 jobs in London this was a remarkable


HS2 No Increase in greenhouse gases, decrease in connectivity, destruction of habibers, out-of-date data and assumptions which do not reflect real life. These

Another key issue seems to be time savings. The assumption that time spent on trains is wasted is a very outdated view. With the technology of today, many commuters use this time and the free Wi-Fi to catch up on work and plan before they start their day in the office. This reliance by DFT on maximiand the Midlands are going to lose out, only London benefiting. They have the

It is estimated that HS2 is going to cost 42.6 billion to build, with a contingency of £14.4bn. – This is their way of hinting they WILL get their costs wrong again due to their inability to keep projects like the channel tunnel on budget. On top of this, their estimation excludes localised infrastructure which is needed across the country. For example foot and farm bridges to enable the public to cross the tracks safely. I agree when The Wildlife Trust state that the need for efficient transport should not be achieved at the expense of the natural environment, the damage being highly underestimated. HS2 threatens 350 unique habitats including sites of special scientific interest. The government need to decide where their loyalties lie. Do they care about climate change and protecting the natural environment for a sustainable future on this planet? Clearly from their trees will replace the damage this project will cause. Too many times across the world we have seen programmes like this which have failed to achieve the huge passenger numbers used to justify its construction. With this in mind against public opinion or not, the government will


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Our group working experience involved a motivated team who understood the brief and wanted to achieve the best grade we could. All members of the group inputted equally and there was no definite leader. However, there were a number of problems that occurred throughout this group project; Language Barrier – Two members of the group are Spanish so when using slang

Group members not living at university – This meant it was harder to arrange days in which we could meet as when some members were in, others were at home. Different ideas on design – A newspaper design was suggested first, however another member of the group thought it would be easier and look more professional if we used a website design similar to BBC News. We also tried a blog format which ! proved difficult. Different ideas on combining work – On one side members wanted to begin writing before thinking of the design, but other members wanted to concentrate on the design first then add in the article. We discussed writing our own words first then meeting up to combine the work or working together throughout so combining the work would be easier. To solve these we; -Spoke in proper English and used as little as possible slag. The Spanish members of the group have excellent English so they found it easy to understand other members. This was a small problem which was easily fixed. !

-We worked out when all members were in university and met then as it was easiest for everyone. Sometimes members who lived at university would come in on their days off to meet with the members who lived at home. -We decided to stick with the website design as we would find it easier to design than a blog and easier to put together than a newspaper. -We decided to select an area which we would individually write and then come together to combine it and work on the design process last. This !was due to conflicother. If we could do this assignment again we would do a number of things differently; -Meet up more regularly – It would have made the assignment quicker to complete and decisions easier to make. !


been panicking as much about the other conflicting assignments. However, we wanted want to start it too early. -Smaller group – Even though this would mean more words to write for each person, it ving or changing.


REFERENCES REFERENCES


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Cubbington#Action#Group#(2014)#NO$business$case.$NO$environmental$case.$NO$money$to$pay$ for$it.#Cubbington#Action#Group.#[Online]#[15/01/14]!http://www.hs2Acubbington.net/$ Flyvbjerg,#B.,#Priemus,#H.,#Wee,#V,#B.#(2008)#DecisionDmaking$on$megaDprojects.#Dawsonera.# [Online]#[6/01/14]#https://www.dawsonera.com/abstract/9781848440173## Giezen,#M#(2013)#"Adaptive#and#strategic#capacity:#navigating#megaprojects#through# uncertainty#and#complexity"#Environment$and$Planning$B:$Planning$and$Design#,#Volume#40(4)# pp723A741.# GO#HS2#(2012).#Yes$decision$on$HS2$vital$to$bring$jobs,$investment$and$better$transport$to$West$ Midlands,$regional$leaders$urged$today$as$decision$draws$closer.#GO#HS2#Wordpress.#[Online]# [07/02/14]# https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=4 M7iDiH6sZCTqM&tbnid=yDSZYzldukfTTM:&ved=0CAQQjB0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fgohs2.wordp ress.com%2F2012%2F01%2F06%2FyesAdecision# GOV.UK#(2014)#HS2:$Developing$a$new$high$speed$rail$network.#GOV.#UK.#[Online]#[25/01/14]# https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/developingAaAnewAhighAspeedArailAnetwork/supportingApages/hs2A routeAandAreducingAtheAimpactAonAlocalAenvironmentAandAcommunities.# Hands#Up#For#High#Speed#2#(2014)#Hands$Up$For$High$Speed$2$Âť$A$place$to$show$your$support$ for$the$proposed$high$speed$rail$link$from$London$to$Birmingham.##Hands#Up#For#High#Speed# 2.[Online]#[02/02/14]#http://www.handsupforhighspeed2.org/# HS2#Limited#(2014)#Economic$benefits$and$growth.#HS2#Ltd.#[Online]#[05/02/14]## http://hs2.org.uk/whatAhs2/economicAbenefitsAjobs# HS2#Limited#(2014)#Facts,$figures$and$journey$times.#HS2#Ltd.#[Online]#[02/02/14]# http://www.hs2.org.uk/phaseAtwo/factsAfigures# Mason,#R.#(2014)#HS2$may$ease$housing$pressure$in$London,$says$project$boss.#The#Guardian.# [Online]#[02/02/14]#http://www.theguardian.com/ukAnews/2014/jan/14/hs2AeaseAhousingA londonApressureAdavidAhiggins# Merrow,# E.# (2008)# Industrial$ Megaprojects:$ Concepts,$ Strategies,$ and$ Practices$ for$ Success.# New#Jersey:#John#Wiley#&#Sons.# Penny#(2014)#HS2$Facts$And$Problems.$Stop#HS2.#[Online]#[15/01/14]# http://stophs2.org/news/10028Ahs2AfactsAandAproblems# Penny#(2014)#HS2$wont$reduce$carbon$this$century.#Stop#HS2.#[Online]#[07/02/14]# http://stophs2.org/news/10237Ahs2AreduceAcarbonAcentury# Prynn,#J.#(2012)$The$Olympics$boom$created$100,000$jobs$in$London.#London#Evening#Standard.# [Online]#[05/02/14]$#http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/theAolympicsAboomAcreatedA


100000AjobsAinAlondonA8214954.html# Rowen,#P#(2013).#The$national$rail$conference$and$the$strategic$case$for$HS2.#Liberal#Democrat# Voice.#[Online]#[07/02/14]# https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Zf HqNpYq6b_xUM&tbnid=YPb9KIMhhYuadM:&ved=0CAQQjB0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.libde mvoice.org%2Ftag%2Fhs2&ei=QKf0Uuq1McaR0QWx# Sanderson,#J#(2012)#“Risk,#uncertainty#and#governance#in#megaprojects:#A#critical#discussion#of# alternative#explanations”#International$Journal$of$Project$Management,(#November#2011)#pp# 433A443.$ $ Stone,#M.#(2014)#China:$$HighDSpeed$Rail$Network$To$Be$Doubled.#Sky#News.#[Online]# [15/01/14]$http://news.sky.com/story/1194709/chinaAhighAspeedArailAnetworkAtoAbeAdoubled$ Stop#HS2#(2014)$Homepage.#Stop#HS2.#[Online]#[05/02/14]#http://stophs2.org/# The#Independent#(2013)#HS2:$Michael$Heseltine$puts$weight$behind$project.#The#Independent.# [Online]#[02/02/14]#http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michaelAheseltineAputsA weightAbehindAhs2A8934133.html# The#Wildlife#Trusts#(No#Date)#HS2.$The#Wildlife#Trusts.#[Online]#[6/01/14]# http://www.wildlifetrusts.org/HS2# Warrington#South#Conservatives#(2011).#Mowat$supports$HS2.#Warrington#South# Conservatives.#[Online]#[#07/02/14]# https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=o b7mmX3BKBkT_M&tbnid=ylLvPM5KXuA 0yM:&ved=0CAQQjB0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.warringtonsouthconservatives.com%2Fnew s%2Fmowa# ! !


MMU BARBER RACHEL: 11001586 CARBAJO MARIA PAZ: 13158403 CORDÓN ANA: 13158406 HOUGH SOPHIE: 11031067 WHERRY BETH: 10454540


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