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2013/14

football handbook

, FIXTUREs d stats anets b the best new for The n seaso

premier league/The Championship/LEAgue 1 League 2/la liga/Bundesliga/SERIE A


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2013/14 football handbook CONTENTS

the beautiful game is back! There’s been plenty of top-quality sporting action to keep us going this summer, but that was just the prelude to one of the most fascinating football seasons ever. With Sir Alex Ferguson retired the face of British football has changed forever, and with new managers at all top three Premier League clubs (including the return of Mourinho to Chelsea), the title is wide open. There’s nothing to separate the top three on the Betfair Exchange so the best league in the world could also become one of the most competitive when it kicks off on August 17. You’ll find everything you need for a successful season’s betting on Betfair in this magazine, including full fixtures and recommended bets for the Premier League, Championship, Leagues One and Two, and the best of the rest from Europe.

Enjoy and good luck,

What are QR codes? Scan these with your smartphone reader (QR Droid for Android and NeoReader for iOS are good) to find all of the latest odds on the Betfair Exchange

PLY PUBLISHING Editorial Director Dave Woods Art Director Marc Southey Managing Editor Scott Skinner Contributor James Eastham Betfair Sports Senior Marketing Manager Matthew Hopper Sports Marketing Executive Matt Williams Head of Football Richard Hayward Legal Counsel Hannah Mason

Richard Hayward, Head of Football

4 Premier League 12 Premier League Predictor 14 The Championship 16 League 1 17 League 2 18 Primera División 20 Bundesliga 1 22 Serie A All prices 24 2013/14 Calendar correct at time of going to 26 The Betfair Edge press 30 Season’s Best Bets

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2013/14 football handbook

close call The top three teams have all changed their managers but will the return of José Mourinho to Chelsea bring the trophy back to London? After being usurped by their ‘noisy neighbours’ the year before, Man United exacted sweet revenge in the 2012/13 season, building up a 15-point lead and effectively winning the Premier League in March. Their 13th title (from a total of 21 Premier League campaigns) was a fitting full-stop to Sir Alex Ferguson’s glittering career. This season could prove more interesting. With Ferguson retired and Roberto Mancini dumped, their chosen successors David Moyes and Manuel Pellegrini are bound to have teething problems, and the Manchester clubs may struggle to dominate at the top. José Mourinho’s Chelsea are rightly attracting plenty of attention and, with Arsenal finally threatening to compete in the transfer market, this could be the most competitive and compelling Premier League campaign in years.

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Sir Alex may be gone but will the title remain?

4

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(3pm unless stated) Saturday August 17, 2013 Liverpool v Stoke 12.45 Arsenal v Aston Villa
 Norwich v Everton
 Sunderland v Fulham

 West Brom v Southampton
 West Ham v Cardiff Swansea v Man Utd 17.30 Sunday August 18, 2013 Crystal Palace v Tottenham 13.30 Chelsea v Hull
16.00 Monday August 19, 2013 Man City v Newcastle
20.00 Wednesday August 21, 2013 Chelsea v Aston Villa
 Saturday 24 August, 2013 Fulham v Arsenal
12.45 Everton v West Brom
 Hull v Norwich
 Newcastle v West Ham
 Southampton v Sunderland
 Stoke v Crystal Palace
 Aston Villa v Liverpool
17.30

Fixtures subject to change for TV n - BT Sport n - Sky Sports

AUG

26

key fixture n David Moyes won’t have many tougher games at Old Trafford than this highly charged affair with Chelsea. José Mourinho enjoys this fixture, winning five, drawing four and only losing once in his previous stint as Chelsea manager.

Sunday August 25, 2013 Cardiff v Man City 16.00 Tottenham v Swansea 16.00 Monday August 26, 2013 Man Utd v Chelsea
20.00 Saturday August 31, 2013 Man City v Hull 12.45 Cardiff v Everton
 Newcastle v Fulham
 Norwich v Southampton
 West Brom v Swansea
 West Ham v Stoke Crystal Palace v Sunderland
17.30 Sunday September 1, 2013 Liverpool v Man Utd 13.30 Arsenal v Tottenham 16.00

extra time n With the closing date for the transfer window landing on a Saturday, Premier League clubs can add new signings up until 23:00 on Monday September 2. Keep up with the very latest news, and what that means for the teams involved, at Betting.Betfair.com.

Saturday September 14, 2013 Man Utd v Crystal Palace
12.45 Aston Villa v Newcastle
 Fulham v West Brom
 Hull v Cardiff
 Stoke v Man City
 Sunderland v Arsenal
 Tottenham v Norwich Everton v Chelsea
17.30

Premier league

Premier League fixtures

Sunday September 15, 2013 Southampton v West Ham
16.00 Monday September 16, 2013 Swansea v Liverpool 20.00 Saturday September 21, 2013 Norwich v Aston Villa
12.45 Cardiff v Tottenham
 Crystal Palace v Swansea
 Liverpool v Southampton
 Newcastle v Hull
 West Brom v Sunderland
 West Ham v Everton Chelsea v Fulham 17.30 Sunday September 22, 2013 Arsenal v Stoke 13.30 Man City v Man Utd
16.00 Saturday September 28, 2013 Tottenham v Chelsea 12.45 Aston Villa v Man City
 Fulham v Cardiff
 Hull v West Ham
 Man Utd v West Brom
 Southampton v Crystal Palace
 Swansea v Arsenal
17.30 Sunday September 29, 2013 Stoke v Norwich
13.30 Sunderland v Liverpool 16.00 Monday September 30, 2013 Everton v Newcastle
20.00 Saturday October 5, 2013 Man City v Everton
12.45 Cardiff v Newcastle
 Fulham v Stoke
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2013/14 football handbook

Fixtures Hull v Aston Villa
 Liverpool v Crystal Palace
 Southampton v Swansea
 Tottenham v West Ham
 Sunderland v Man Utd
17.30

Sunday October 6, 2013 Norwich v Chelsea 13.30 West Brom v Arsenal 16.00

Can Robin van Persie make it a hat-trick?

Golden Boot Robin van persie is the favourite to top the premier league goalscoring chart again The Premier League’s Golden Boot has been won by a player from Arsenal, Man United, Man City or Chelsea for the past 14 seasons. The last break from this monopoly was in 1999/2000 when Kevin Phillips scored 30 for Sunderland. Robin van Persie has won the Golden Boot for the past two seasons – with Arsenal (30 goals) and Man United (26 goals) – and is the favourite to claim the hat-trick. Luis Suarez scored 23 goals last season but is unsettled at Liverpool and could well be on the move. If he stays in England he’s still got six matches of his suspension left to serve. Gareth Bale scored 21 goals but is unlikely to better what was an exceptional haul. Christian Benteke (19 goals) has signed a new contract with Aston Villa – great news for them but less good for his personal aspirations. Agüero and Torres are more than capable but disappointed last season with 12 and eight goals respectively. RVP – fitness willing – will be Man United’s main striker and represents real value at 5.0. The only question is around new signings, but unless a worldclass striker turns up at one of the big Premier League clubs we think Van Persie has it in the bag.

Premier League Top Goalscorer Player

2013/14 price Last season goals

Robin Van Persie Sergio Agüero Gareth Bale Luis Suarez Wayne Rooney Christian Benteke Fernando Torres 6

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5.0 9.0 15.5 16.0 17.5 19.0 26.0

26 12 21 23 12 19 8

Saturday October 19, 2013 Newcastle v Liverpool
12.45 Arsenal v Norwich
 Chelsea v Cardiff
 Everton v Hull
 Man Utd v Southampton
 Stoke v West Brom
 Swansea v Sunderland
 West Ham v Man City 17.30 Sunday October 20, 2013 Aston Villa v Tottenham
16.00 Monday October 21, 2013 Crystal Palace v Fulham
20.00 Saturday October 26, 2013 Crystal Palace v Arsenal
12.45 Aston Villa v Everton
 Liverpool v West Brom
 Man Utd v Stoke
 Norwich v Cardiff
 Swansea v West Ham
 Tottenham v Hull Southampton v Fulham
17.30 Sunday October 27, 2013 Chelsea v Man City 13.30 Sunderland v Newcastle 16.00 Saturday November 2, 2013 Newcastle v Chelsea
12.45 Fulham v Man Utd
 Hull v Sunderland
 Man City v Norwich
 Stoke v Southampton
 West Brom v Crystal Palace
 West Ham v Aston Villa Arsenal v Liverpool 17.30


Saturday November 9, 2013 Aston Villa v Cardiff
 Chelsea v West Brom
 Crystal Palace v Everton
 Liverpool v Fulham
 Southampton v Hull
 Swansea v Stoke
 Norwich v West Ham
17.30 Sunday November 10, 2013 Tottenham v Newcastle 12.00 Sunderland v Man City 14.05 Man Utd v Arsenal
16.10 Saturday November 23, 2013 Everton v Liverpool
12.45 Arsenal v Southampton
 Fulham v Swansea
 Hull v Crystal Palace
 Newcastle v Norwich
 Stoke v Sunderland
 Man City v Tottenham 17.30

Wednesday December 4, 2013 Arsenal v Hull 19.45 Stoke v Cardiff 19.45 Sunderland v Chelsea 19.45 Fulham v Tottenham 20.00

NOV /DEC

key fixtures n Arsenal won as many Premier League points in 2013 as any other team (40, the same as eventual champions Man United). If they keep the momentum going, fixtures against Man United (Nov 10), Man City (Dec 14) and Chelsea (Dec 21) could define their season.

Sunday November 24, 2013 West Ham v Chelsea 13.30 Cardiff v Man Utd
16.00 Monday November 25, 2013 West Brom v Aston Villa
20.00 Saturday November 30, 2013 Tottenham v Man Utd
12.45 Aston Villa v Sunderland
 Cardiff v Arsenal
 Everton v Stoke
 Man City v Swansea
 Norwich v Crystal Palace
 West Ham v Fulham Newcastle v West Brom
17.30 Sunday December 1, 2013 Hull v Liverpool
13.30 Chelsea v Southampton 16.00 Tuesday December 3, 2013 Man Utd v Everton 19.45 Southampton v Aston Villa 19.45 Swansea v Newcastle 19.45 Crystal Palace v West Ham 20.00 Liverpool v Norwich 20.00 West Brom v Man City 20.00

18

n Man City boasted last year’s tightest defence. Joe Hart, despite five mistakes that led to goals, kept 18 clean sheets and only let in 34 goals, three better than Arsenal. City’s troubles were up front where they registered 66 goals compared to 86 from their red rivals.

Saturday December 7, 2013 Arsenal v Everton
 Crystal Palace v Cardiff
 Fulham v Aston Villa
 Liverpool v West Ham
 Man Utd v Newcastle
 Southampton v Man City
 Stoke v Chelsea
 Sunderland v Tottenham
 Swansea v Hull
 West Brom v Norwich

Premier league

Sunday November 3, 2013 Everton v Tottenham
13.30 Cardiff v Swansea
16.00

Saturday December 14, 2013 Aston Villa v Man Utd
 Cardiff v West Brom
 Chelsea v Crystal Palace
 Everton v Fulham
 Hull v Stoke
 Man City v Arsenal
 Newcastle v Southampton
 Norwich v Swansea
 Tottenham v Liverpool
 West Ham v Sunderland Saturday December 21, 2013 Arsenal v Chelsea
 Crystal Palace v Newcastle
 Fulham v Man City
 Liverpool v Cardiff
 Man Utd v West Ham
 Southampton v Tottenham
 Stoke v Aston Villa
 Sunderland v Norwich
 Swansea v Everton
 West Brom v Hull Thursday December 26, 2013 Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
 Cardiff v Southampton
 Chelsea v Swansea
 Everton v Sunderland
 Hull v Man Utd
 Man City v Liverpool
 Newcastle v Stoke
 Norwich v Fulham
 Tottenham v West Brom
 West Ham v Arsenal

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2013/14 football handbook

New kids on the block Expect more big-name signings, right up until September 2, but these are the best additions to the Premier league so far Stevan Jovetić (Man City) n Man City believe they have found the striker that will help them regain the Premier League crown. Powerful and creative, the ex-Fiorentina man is an ideal foil for Sergio Agüero.

Paulinho (Tottenham) n One of the stars of the Confederations Cup, Paulinho could well be the player that propels Tottenham into the top four. He combines defensive prowess with attacking vision.

André Schürrle (Chelsea) n This deal was all but done before the return of José Mourinho. Schürrle’s smart-thinking presence alongside Eden Hazard, Oscar and Juan Mata will make Chelsea strong contenders.

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Saturday December 28, 2013 Aston Villa v Swansea
 Cardiff v Sunderland
 Chelsea v Liverpool
 Everton v Southampton
 Hull v Fulham
 Man City v Crystal Palace
 Newcastle v Arsenal
 Norwich v Man Utd
 Tottenham v Stoke
 West Ham v West Brom Wednesday January 1, 2014 Arsenal v Cardiff
 Crystal Palace v Norwich
 Fulham v West Ham
 Liverpool v Hull
 Man Utd v Tottenham
 Southampton v Chelsea
 Stoke v Everton
 Sunderland v Aston Villa
 Swansea v Man City
 West Brom v Newcastle

Iago Aspas (Liverpool) n A ‘Moneyball’ signing, supposedly snapped up on the strength of his stats, the former Celta Vigo man should add movement and guile. He’s already impressed in pre-season games.

Saturday January 11, 2014 Aston Villa v Arsenal
 Cardiff v West Ham
 Everton v Norwich
 Fulham v Sunderland
 Hull v Chelsea
 Man Utd v Swansea
 Newcastle v Man City
 Southampton v West Brom
 Stoke v Liverpool
 Tottenham v Crystal Palace

Liverpool are expecting big things from Aspas

Saturday January 18, 2014 Arsenal v Fulham
 Chelsea v Man Utd
 Crystal Palace v Stoke Liverpool v Aston Villa
 Man City v Cardiff
 Norwich v Hull
 Sunderland v Southampton
 Swansea v Tottenham
 West Brom v Everton
 West Ham v Newcastle

Gerard Deulofeu (Everton) n Roberto Martinez captured Deulofeu on a year-long loan from Barcelona. A versatile attacker with a great youth pedigree, he can operate anywhere across the front line.

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Fixtures

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Tuesday January 28, 2014 Aston Villa v West Brom 19.45 Man Utd v Cardiff 19.45


Wednesday January 29, 2014 Chelsea v West Ham 19.45 Tottenham v Man City 19.45 Saturday February 1, 2014 Arsenal v Crystal Palace
 Cardiff v Norwich
 Everton v Aston Villa
 Fulham v Southampton
 Hull v Tottenham
 Man City v Chelsea
 Newcastle v Sunderland
 Stoke v Man Utd
 West Brom v Liverpool
 West Ham v Swansea Saturday February 8, 2014 Aston Villa v West Ham
 Chelsea v Newcastle
 Crystal Palace v West Brom
 Liverpool v Arsenal
 Man Utd v Fulham
 Norwich v Man City Southampton v Stoke
 Sunderland v Hull
 Swansea v Cardiff
 Tottenham v Everton Tuesday February 11, 2014 Arsenal v Man Utd 19.45 Cardiff v Aston Villa 19.45 Hull v Southampton 19.45 West Ham v Norwich 19.45 West Brom v Chelsea 20.00
 Wednesday February 12, 2014 Everton v Crystal Palace 19.45 Man City v Sunderland 19.45 Newcastle v Tottenham 19.45 Stoke v Swansea 19.45 Fulham v Liverpool 20.00 Saturday February 22, 2014 Arsenal v Sunderland
 Cardiff v Hull
 Chelsea v Everton
 Crystal Palace v Man Utd
 Liverpool v Swansea


Man City v Stoke
 Newcastle v Aston Villa
 Norwich v Tottenham
 West Brom v Fulham
 West Ham v Southampton

13

n Robin van Persie scored the last goal in the game more times than any other Premier League striker last season. 13 of his goals – exactly half of his total tally of 26 – were the last to go in, and helped Man United come from behind to win 29 points.

2.8

n One of the most popular football betting markets is Under/Over 2.5 Goals. Here you’re betting there will be either two or less, or three or more goals in a game. Last season marked the third in a row with an average of at least 2.8 goals per game (2.8 in 10/11 and 2.81 in 11/12).

Saturday March 1, 2014 Aston Villa v Norwich
 Everton v West Ham
 Fulham v Chelsea
 Hull v Newcastle
 Man Utd v Man City
 Southampton v Liverpool
 Stoke v Arsenal
 Sunderland v West Brom
 Swansea v Crystal Palace
 Tottenham v Cardiff

Premier league

Norwich v Newcastle 19.45 Southampton v Arsenal 19.45 Sunderland v Stoke 19.45 Swansea v Fulham 19.45 Crystal Palace v Hull 20.00
 Liverpool v Everton 20.00


Saturday March 8, 2014 Arsenal v Swansea
 Cardiff v Fulham
 Chelsea v Tottenham
 Crystal Palace v Southampton
 Liverpool v Sunderland
 Man City v Aston Villa
 Newcastle v Everton
 Norwich v Stoke
 West Brom v Man Utd
 West Ham v Hull Saturday March 15, 2014 Aston Villa v Chelsea
 Everton v Cardiff
 Fulham v Newcastle
 Hull v Man City
 Man Utd v Liverpool
 Southampton v Norwich
 Stoke v West Ham
 Sunderland v Crystal Palace
 Swansea v West Brom
 Tottenham v Arsenal Saturday March 22, 2014 Aston Villa v Stoke
 Cardiff v Liverpool
 Chelsea v Arsenal
 Everton v Swansea
 Hull v West Brom
 Man City v Fulham
 Newcastle v Crystal Palace
 Norwich v Sunderland
 Tottenham v Southampton
 West Ham v Man Utd

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2013/14 football handbook

Fixtures Saturday March 29, 2014 Arsenal v Man City Crystal Palace v Chelsea Fulham v Everton
 Liverpool v Tottenham
 Man Utd v Aston Villa
 Southampton v Newcastle
 Stoke v Hull
 Sunderland v West Ham
 Swansea v Norwich
 West Brom v Cardiff Saturday April 5, 2014 Aston Villa v Fulham
 Cardiff v Crystal Palace
 Chelsea v Stoke
 Everton v Arsenal
 Hull v Swansea
 Man City v Southampton
 Newcastle v Man Utd
 Norwich v West Brom
 Tottenham v Sunderland
 West Ham v Liverpool Saturday April 12, 2014 Arsenal v West Ham
 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
 Fulham v Norwich
 Liverpool v Man City
 Man Utd v Hull
 Southampton v Cardiff
 Stoke v Newcastle
 Sunderland v Everton
 Swansea v Chelsea
 West Brom v Tottenham Saturday April 19, 2014 Aston Villa v Southampton
 Cardiff v Stoke
 Chelsea v Sunderland


0

n In 2012/13 Man United became only the fourth team in Premier League history to not concede a penalty all season. Tottenham and Swansea were not awarded one.

36

n There was a massive 36 goals scored on the final day of the 2012/13 season. Only four days have seen higher than this in the history of the Premier League.

Everton v Man Utd
 Hull v Arsenal
 Man City v West Brom
 Newcastle v Swansea
 Norwich v Liverpool
 Tottenham v Fulham
 West Ham v Crystal Palace

Saturday April 26, 2014 Arsenal v Newcastle
 Crystal Palace v Man City
 Fulham v Hull
 Liverpool v Chelsea
 Man Utd v Norwich
 Southampton v Everton
 Stoke v Tottenham
 Sunderland v Cardiff
 Swansea v Aston Villa
 West Brom v West Ham Saturday May 3, 2014 Arsenal v West Brom
 Aston Villa v Hull
 Chelsea v Norwich
 Crystal Palace v Liverpool
 Everton v Man City
 Man Utd v Sunderland
 Newcastle v Cardiff
 Stoke v Fulham
 Swansea v Southampton
 West Ham v Tottenham Sunday May 11, 2014 Cardiff v Chelsea
 Fulham v Crystal Palace
 Hull v Everton
 Liverpool v Newcastle
 Man City v West Ham
 Norwich v Arsenal
 Southampton v Man Utd
 Sunderland v Swansea
 Tottenham v Aston Villa
 West Brom v Stoke

RELEGATION RUN-IN

Is the writing on the wall for Crystal Palace?

10

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Strange things can happen at the end of the Premier League season, but you’ve got to feel for newly-promoted Crystal Palace. Already the favourites for the drop they’ve got to negotiate Liverpool and Man City at home, and two tough away derbies at Fulham and West Ham in the final four weeks. Norwich might have a hardier squad but they’ve got an even tougher run-in with Liverpool (home), Man United (away), Chelsea (away) and Arsenal (home) in the last four weeks. If they still need points they could be in trouble.


With new managers for the top three clubs from last season, the 2013/14 Premier League crown could be decided by factors off the field. Here’s how the men in charge stack up RETIRED ALEX FERGUSON

CHELSEA JOSÉ MOURINHO

ARSENAL ARSÈNE WENGER

MAN CITY MANUEL PELLEGRINI

win Rate

win Rate

win Rate

win Rate

MAJOR TITLES

MAJOR TITLES

MAJOR TITLES

MAJOR TITLES

58%

x

32

TOTTENHAM ANDRÉ VILLAS-BOAS

68%

54%

15

x

EVERTON ROBERTO MARTINEZ

MAN UNITED DAVID MOYES

x

50%

10

x

6

LIVERPOOL BRENDAN ROGERS

win Rate

win Rate

win Rate

44%

40%

MAJOR TITLES

MAJOR TITLES

MAJOR TITLES

MAJOR TITLES

57%

x

3

38%

x

1

x

Premier league

GAME OF THRONES

win Rate

0

x

0

*Major titles include all open cup competitions plus top tier leagues

THE KINGMAKER

There are five clubs – Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham – whose places in the top six are taken for granted. There’s no reason to believe there will be any change in 2013/14. Everton clinched sixth spot last May but may not be so lucky this time around. There were real signs of improvement from Liverpool, and Everton have to adjust to life without David Moyes. At the top there’s nothing to separate the Big Three, but a change in managers for all of them could prove crucial. Moyes might have been a popular choice to succeed Alex

Ferguson, but he’s unproven at the very highest level. Despite keeping Everton in the top ten for nine out of his 11 seasons in charge, he’s never won a major title and his highest finish is fifth. The pressure on him will be immense. Manuel Pellegrini has a great record from South America but couldn’t win anything with Real Madrid or Malaga. He’ll need to deliver or suffer the same fate as Roberto Mancini. José Mourinho has a fantastic winning record at every club he’s managed – second only to Ferguson in terms of titles – and his bond with Chelsea could give them the impetus to lift the trophy for the first time since 2009/10.

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2013/14 football handbook

Premier League Predictor We’ve looked into the future and this is how we see the table in May – apologies in advance for fans of Crystal Palace, Stoke and Hull

Merseyside derby Everton finished above Liverpool for the second season in a row last year – it’s the first time they’ve achieved that in the top flight since 1937. As good a manager as Martinez is, with Moyes out they’re going to struggle to do it again. Mid-table obscurity Only ten points separated West Brom from Sunderland last year. Swansea, Aston Villa, Fulham, West Brom and West Ham make up the teams we think will avoid getting into a dogfight next season. Relegation fodder Crystal Palace and Hull are favourites to go down. We see them fighting it out with Sunderland, Norwich and Stoke.

1992/93 199 3/9 4

19 94 /

200 9/1 0

1997/98

2007/08 2008/09

/97 1996

6/07 200

1998 /99

/06 05 20

19 99 /0 0

1/02 200

2002/03

2003/ 04

200 4/0 5

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2012/13

96 95/ 19

n Arsenal n Blackburn n Chelsea n Man City n Man United

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/11 10

2 1/1 201

95

Man United have an incredible record in the Premier League. They’ve won it 13 times from 21 attempts, all under the stewardship of Sir Alex Ferguson. Ominously though, there’s only been one period when they went two seasons without a title and that’s when José Mourinho came to Chelsea. Arsenal haven’t won a title since 2003/04 and the fans have been getting restless. At 11.0 they’re not seen as serious contenders but the Gunners scored as many points as any other team in 2013, and are only two or three players off a serious squad. They’ve also got a relatively easy start to the season with their first away test at Old Trafford in November. If they bag Suarez and another world-class player they could be worth a back-to-lay.

20

Premier League champions

12

2013/14 Premier League Chelsea Man City Man Utd Tottenham Arsenal Liverpool Everton Swansea Aston Villa Fulham West Brom West Ham Newcastle Cardiff n/a Southampton Norwich Sunderland Hull n/a Stoke Crystal Palace n/a

Europe The breakaway group at the top is likely to remain. Liverpool will fancy their chances but we don’t. Arsenal need to make a signing or two to finish fourth or higher.

/01 00 20

2012/13 Premier League Man Utd 89 Man City 78 Chelsea 75 Arsenal 73 Tottenham 72 Everton 63 Liverpool 61 West Brom 49 Swansea 46 West Ham 46 Norwich 44 Fulham 43 Stoke 42 Southampton 41 Aston Villa 41 Newcastle 41 Sunderland 39 Wigan 36 Reading 28 QPR 25


Going down? At the foot of the table promoted teams dominate the relegation market, but the stats show that Crystal Palace, Hull and Cardiff are far from automatically doomed (see below). Instead bigger priced teams might be worth an investment to bite the dust. For different reasons, Stoke and Sunderland may be worth considering. For Stoke, 2013/14 will almost be like starting life all over again without Tony Pullis. At Sunderland, Paolo Di Canio’s confrontational style could be a success or a disaster. Norwich have made some astute signings and should survive.

Arsenal 11.0

Man City

3.4

Liverpool 34.0

Man United 3.7

Tottenham 36.0

Recommended bets Champions There are new managers for the top three teams but Chelsea’s transition will be the smoothest.

Back Chelsea @ 3.4 straight FORECAST To add interest to the Premier League race, have a go at forecasting the top two in order. Behind Chelsea, our pick to win it, Manuel Pellegrini’s Man City look best-equipped to mount a challenge.

New BOYS

40% 62 teams have been promoted to the PL and 25 have gone straight back down

Chelsea 3.4

Premier league

outright prices

27% Only four teams have suffered the same fate in the past five years

Crystal Palace have been promoted three times and have never survived. Hull were promoted once and survived by a point before falling in their second season. Cardiff have never played in the Premier League and it’s their first time in the top flight for 51 years.

Back Chelsea/Man City @ 6.8 TOP four FINISH A lot depends on signings. If Bale goes then so, realistically, do Tottenham’s chances. If Arsenal sign Suarez then you should probably think about reversing this bet.

Back Tottenham @ 2.9 top goalscorer RVP has won the Golden Boot for the last two seasons and barring any major new signings we think he’ll score the hat-trick.

Back Robin van Persie @ 5.0 Top promoted team Hull and Crystal Palace are odds-on for the drop and both will struggle. Cardiff should comfortably top this mini-league.

Back Cardiff @ 1.9 Relegation

The experts – Betting.Betfair.com get regular tips from our resident experts Michael Cox n Michael Cox authors the popular Zonal Marking blog, and writes a tactical breakdown of a weekend Premier League game in Monday’s Guardian each week. He also writes weekly columns for ESPN and FourFourTwo, and posts regular analysis at Betting.Betfair.

With Crystal Palace and Hull odds-on favourites for the drop, look to some bigger prices.

Back Stoke (4.1) and Sunderland (6.2)

w Bet no

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2013/14 football handbook

THE Championship Can the Royals come out on top in the most competitive league in the world? title, with a respected manager in Nigel Adkins and a host of ambitious signings. QPR are in the midst of clearing out the expensive failures who took them down, and much will depend on how quickly their new arrivals gel. Wigan, meanwhile, have come down with a squad poorly equipped for the Championship, and have lost last season’s top scorer Arouna Koné to Everton. New manager Owen Coyle has

Last season’s Championship turned into a real-life version of Wacky Races, with multiple twists and turns at both ends of the table as Peterborough were relegated despite finishing only 14 points outside the play-offs. It is a division in which weird things happen – Reading’s run to the title two years ago, having been 23rd after six games, being a case in point. This time, though, the Royals are hotly fancied for the

Blackpool

10/08 22/02 26/10 -

Brighton Burnley Charlton Derby Doncaster Huddersfield Ipswich Leeds Leicester Middlesbrough Millwall Nottm Forest QPR Reading Sheff Wed Watford

Sheff Wed

Reading

QPR

Nottm Forest

Millwall

Middlesbrough

Leicester

Leeds

Ipswich

Huddersfield

Doncaster

Derby

Charlton

Burnley

Brighton

Bournemouth

Bolton

21/04 23/11 05/10 29/03 17/08 12/03 02/11 01/02 03/12 15/02 31/08 26/04 28/01 07/12 01/10 21/12 08/03 22/03 21/09

24/08 29/12 -

Bournemouth

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30/11 28/01 18/01 26/12 22/03 05/04 08/04 17/08 29/12 09/11 31/08 08/02 19/04 11/03 19/10 22/02 08/03 03/05 01/10 26/10

01/01 -

Blackburn Bolton

14

-

Blackpool

Barnsley Barnsley

Birmingham

Blackburn

AWAY H O M E

Birmingham

FIXTURES

01/02 31/08 12/03 15/02 09/03 19/10 25/01 11/01 21/09 05/04 30/11 22/03 02/11 14/12 10/08 08/04 23/11 26/12 01/10 08/03 29/12 18/04 03/05 08/04 25/01 22/03 09/11 26/12 21/09 11/01 11/03 08/02 14/12 24/08 30/11

12/04 03/05 01/03 25/03 -

08/02 15/03 25/01 21/12 17/09 07/12 03/12 26/10 14/09 22/04 01/01 09/11 11/01 24/08 10/08 19/10

17/08 14/12 28/09 14/09 02/11 -

30/11 15/02 03/08 23/11 01/03 28/01 29/12 25/03 01/02 15/03 05/10 26/04 05/04 08/04 18/04

03/12 11/01 09/11 21/04 21/09 01/01 -

24/08 12/04 10/08 08/02 21/12 22/03 25/01 07/12 29/03 31/08 05/10 11/03 08/03 01/10

07/12 17/09 14/09 21/12 03/08 09/11 28/01 -

28/09 01/03 25/03 01/01 26/04 15/03 29/03 12/04 08/02 22/02 26/10 05/10 18/01

11/01 08/02 26/04 05/10 19/04 25/01 26/12 22/03 -

14/12 24/08 11/03 30/11 09/11 31/08 10/08 21/09 01/10 22/02 05/04 29/12

21/04 26/10 04/08 07/12 11/03 22/02 18/01 31/08 29/03 -

21/12 12/04 01/10 05/10 17/08 04/12 08/03 22/03 08/02 21/09 09/11

15/02 05/04 16/08 03/08 08/04 31/08 02/11 01/10 28/01 19/04 -

08/03 26/12 14/12 05/10 01/02 29/12 21/09 30/11 26/04 22/03

01/03 09/11 15/03 28/09 05/04 24/08 18/04 30/11 17/09 26/12 14/09 -

08/04 26/10 26/04 25/03 11/01 25/01 10/08 14/12 22/02

02/11 01/03 03/12 15/02 01/02 21/04 28/09 19/10 01/01 25/03 12/04 07/12 -

24/08 23/11 14/09 10/08 29/03 11/01 25/01 03/05

21/12 20/10 01/01 12/04 08/03 01/10 03/08 21/09 15/02 03/05 29/03 01/02 28/01 -

18/01 23/11 22/03 21/04 31/08 11/03 17/08

28/09 24/08 17/09 15/03 29/12 26/10 08/04 14/12 01/03 11/01 03/05 19/10 22/02 11/08 -

25/01 30/11 09/11 19/04 26/12 05/04

26/04 08/04 08/02 17/08 30/11 21/09 14/12 26/12 18/01 05/04 25/10 01/10 08/03 22/02 03/08 -

19/04 11/03 22/03 29/12 31/08

23/11 25/03 29/03 17/09 15/02 03/05 01/03 02/11 15/03 14/09 21/04 17/08 18/01 28/09 01/01 21/12 -

03/12 19/10 01/02 28/01

14/09 19/04 18/01 02/11 17/08 19/10 03/05 23/11 25/03 28/09 15/03 03/08 14/12 29/12 15/02 17/09 05/04 -

26/12 29/11 08/04

05/10 14/09 07/12 29/03 28/01 03/12 18/09 01/02 23/11 02/11 01/01 18/01 17/08 01/03 21/12 28/09 26/04 12/04 -

15/02 03/08

25/03 28/09 22/02 28/01 18/01 07/12 15/09 03/05 03/12 15/03 19/10 29/03 03/08 18/09 12/04 22/04 26/10 01/01 09/11 -

08/02

01/02 15/03 12/04 01/01 26/04 21/12 25/03 10/08 21/04 15/02 28/09 23/11 05/10 12/01 03/12 01/03 24/08 07/12 25/01 02/11

15/03 25/01 25/03 01/03 23/11 10/08 01/02 05/04 14/09 19/10 17/09 03/05 19/04 08/04 02/11 15/02 26/12 25/08 29/12 11/01 14/12

Wigan

25/01 26/12 06/10 26/04 15/12 11/01 23/11 29/12 01/02 1/12 20/08 02/11 22/09 05/04 08/03 24/08 08/04 31/08 TBC 19/04 11/03

Yeovil

29/03 10/08 21/12 03/12 22/03 12/04 19/10 11/01 07/12 24/08 22/02 21/04 11/03 08/02 01/10 03/05 25/01 26/10 21/09 31/08 08/03

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Going down

Yeovil

Wigan

Watford

In the relegation battle, Yeovil and Doncaster are likely to feature, having both over-achieved winning promotion. Barnsley, operating on a miniscule budget, will need a miracle to repeat last season’s relegation escape, while Millwall are also likely to struggle. Blackpool suffered through lack of investment last season and the team that dropped out of the Premier League two years ago may spend the next ten months worrying about League One.

21/09 03/08 14/12 03/08 12/04 18/01 01/10 03/05 18/04 31/08 19/10 05/04

9.6 n It’s the league where literally anything can happen, and the favourite’s price reflects that – at 7.4 it’s double that of any major league in Europe. We think the real value is to be found in backing Reading at 9.6.

22/02 29/03 28/09

Harry Redknapp has a big job at QPR

outright prices QPR 7.4

Watford 12.5

Reading 9.6

Leicester 13.0

Bolton 10.0

N Forest

Wigan 12.0

Brighton 17.0

13.0

The championship

responded by bringing in experience. Striker Grant Holt scored 21 goals to help Norwich win promotion in 2011, while Stephen Crainey went up with Blackpool in 2010. Leicester have given Nigel Pearson another chance to win promotion and could be rewarded for that loyalty, while Bolton will expect big things after a terrific run from February onwards left them just short of the play-offs.

Recommended bets Champions Reading mean business. Manager Nigel Adkins has experience and the financial backing.

Back Reading @ 9.6 Promotion Bolton had a poor start last season but won ten of their final 17 matches so have momentum.

Back Bolton @ 4.0 Top SIX Finish QPR’s owner Tony Fernandes will demand a promotion challenge after spending a fortune, while Wigan and Leicester have capable squads. Charlton are a good outside bet.

18/01 17/08 26/12 25/10 22/02 26/04 03/12 21/04 17/08 08/03 27/10 08/04

Back Wigan (2.7), Leicester (2.4), QPR (1.7) and Charlton (5.4)

26/04 01/01 28/01 11/03 18/01 22/11 05/10 08/02 29/12

Relegation

21/12 15/03 17/09

Even Paddy Madden’s goals are unlikely to save Yeovil. New Doncaster manager Paul Dickov was hardly a success in League One at Oldham, while Blackpool look vulnerable.

07/12 04/12 02/11 08/02 14/09 25/03 09/11 28/01 05/10

Back Blackpool (4.2), Doncaster (3.0) and Yeovil (2.0)

12/04 07/12 03/08 29/01 01/03 01/02 21/04 25/03 15/03 17/08 21/12 01/03

w Bet no

29/03 TBC 14/09

28/09 30/11

22/03

15/02

01/01 10/11 -

Can Adam le Fondre fire the Royals back to the top?

Betfair.com/exchange 18+

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15


2013/14 football handbook

League One Wolves have the players and the money, but have they got the grit to win? Wolves started last season looking to return to the Premier League so will need to adjust quickly. They have sensibly installed Kenny Jackett as manager, and his track record of League One success should see them well-placed to take the title. Whether highly-fancied Peterborough can join Wolves in a swift return to the Championship will depend on their ability to improve their leaky defence. Bristol City will look to uphold manager Sean O’Driscoll’s reputation for flowing, winning football. At the other end of the table, Coventry City are in turmoil. Hit by a transfer ban over the summer, they were great value in the relegation market at around 8.0, but the odds have halved since. On paper the four clubs promoted from League Two (Gillingham, Rotherham, Port Vale and Bradford) possess sufficient quality and resources to survive. Perennial strugglers Colchester and Oldham are short odds to go down, and you sense they will need to start strongly to Bristol City host Wolves build the confidence in the first big game of the required to succeed season on August 17 – a at this level. strong start is crucial for both teams

outright prices Wolves 4.7

Sheff Utd 10.0

Peterboro 9.4

Bristol City 11.0

Brentford 9.6

MK Dons

14.5

Recommended bets champions The Molineux giants invested in a stadium and players with the Premier League in mind – now they’re facing life in League One. It’s fair to say that nothing less than the title will do, but they look equipped to deliver it.

Back Wolves @ 4.7 top two finish Early-season form led to relegation last term, but Posh ended the 2012/13 season strongly. Momentum is with them going into League One so they should be contenders to bounce straight back.

Back Peterborough @ 3.9 relegation The clubs with the smallest crowds and thinnest resources will be severely tested by wealthier new arrivals such as Bradford and Rotherham. These are the three in danger.

Back Colchester (3.0), Oldham (3.0) and Tranmere (4.3)

w Bet no Can Wolves bounce straight back from relegation?

16

18+

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Five years after winning the FA Cup, Portsmouth steel themselves for life in League 2 Portsmouth’s strikers need to find form quickly

outright prices Portsmouth 5.6

Bristol R

15.5

Fleetwood 8.2

Scunthorpe 17.0

Chesterfield 8.6

Oxford 17.5

League 1/League 2

League TWO

Recommended bets champions

Portsmouth are far and away the title favourites based on stature and quality of recruitment, but they will have to continue to invest carefully in order to create the depth of squad needed to maintain a 46-game challenge. If David Connolly, Tom Craddock and Patrick Agyemang find their scoring boots, though, there will be few better forward lines in League Two. Much is expected of another club with a new-look squad, Fleetwood Town, who have thrown plentiful resources at Graham Alexander to try to get his managerial career off to a successful Dave Kitson got 11 goals for start. The other likely Sheffield United in League wannabes are clubs One last season and regularly found could score heavily bobbing between the for Oxford third and fourth tiers, namely Chesterfield, Bristol Rovers and Northampton Town. Newly relegated Scunthorpe United are more used to yo-yoing between the Championship and League One and will be heavily reliant on the experience of new arrival Chris Iwelumo. Accrington and AFC Wimbledon enjoy popular support among neutrals but will need more than goodwill if their inexperienced managers are to drag them away from the struggles they endured last season. Both are among the favourites to go down.

They won’t have it all their own way in a long and arduous league, but the raucous backing of their fantastic support base could make all the difference for Pompey.

Back Portsmouth @ 5.6 TOp three finish Quality signings such as Gary Roberts, Ritchie Humphreys and Jimmy Ryan will give the Spireites an edge, but a lot is expected from a new-look Fleetwood who have had the resources to aim high.

Back Chesterfield (2.0) and Fleetwood (2.5) relegation Accrington Stanley and AFC Wimbledon are in the firing line. Morecambe and Dagenham & Redbridge are the other two teams in danger of falling out of the Football League.

Back Accrington Stanley (4.6) and AFC Wimbledon (5.1)

w Bet no

Betfair.com/exchange 18+

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17


2013/14 football handbook

Primera División With new managers for Spain’s Big Two, who will triumph in La Liga’s two-horse race? points and strip Real of the outright points record. There are good reasons to believe Real will close the gap this time, making for a genuine title race. Neymar’s arrival in Barcelona is exciting but recalls the old vanity purchases of Real’s Galácticos era. New coach Gerardo Martino must accommodate a player who seems to do his best work in exactly the same areas of the pitch as the majestic Leo Messi. Great players generally work things out but some teething troubles along the way would be no surprise.

The summer headlines remain the same: it’s still going to be one of Real Madrid and Barcelona that wins La Liga’s Primera División next year. The Germans have ripped big holes in claims that Spain’s Big Two are the best in Europe, but no one on the Iberian peninsula has the strength to challenge them for the 2013/14 Primera División title. Champions Barça were 15 points better than second-placed Real last season but the gap might have been inflated by Barça’s desire to reach 100

Atlético Madrid Barcelona Betis Celta de Vigo Elche Espanyol Getafe

22/12 23/02 23/03 10/11 -

Valladolid Villarreal

Villarreal

Valladolid

Valencia

Sevilla

29/09 18/08 23/02 01/09 20/10 23/03 22/12 10/11 11/05 13/04 30/03 12/01 27/04 22/09

02/02 26/03 01/12 11/05 16/03 02/03 -

06/10 06/04 27/10 27/04 22/12 16/02 19/01 25/09 25/08 12/01 24/11 15/09 03/11

27/04 22/09 20/10 30/03 01/09 19/01 09/03 -

29/09 09/02 23/03 30/10 11/05 13/04 12/01 01/12 10/11 25/08 22/12 23/02

25/08 27/10 13/04 22/12 06/10 25/09 10/11 02/03 -

16/03 01/12 27/04 15/09 12/01 16/02 19/01 11/05 03/11 02/02 26/03

25/09 24/11 05/01 25/08 03/11 27/10 04/05 26/03 15/12 06/04 18/05 -

Valencia

Real Sociedad

25/08 20/10 02/02 09/03 22/09 30/10 30/03 12/01 01/12 19/01 27/04 13/04 15/09 11/05 29/09

01/12 09/02 09/03 30/10 26/01 -

Málaga

Sevilla

Real Madrid

06/04 26/03 05/01 03/11 04/05 24/11 18/08 26/01 16/03 16/02 27/10 25/09 15/09 02/02 06/10 15/12

16/02 06/04 04/05 19/01 26/03 16/03 15/12 27/10 20/04 03/11 -

Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano

12/01 27/10 06/10 20/04 16/03 24/11 26/03 22/12 11/05 25/09 25/08 02/03 01/09 19/01 15/12 16/02 06/04

02/03 20/04 18/05 -

11/05 29/09 30/10 13/04 16/02 02/02 23/03 15/09 20/10 -

Real Madrid

Osasuna

Málaga

Levante

Granada

Getafe

Espanyol

Elche

Celta de Vigo

Betis

30/03 01/12 25/09 15/09 30/10 16/02 23/03 02/03 10/11 13/04 25/08 22/12 02/02 11/05 27/04 06/10 19/01 20/10

15/09 03/11 -

Levante

Rayo Vallecano

18+

18/05 09/02 29/09 04/05 20/04 01/09 15/12 26/01 05/01 22/09 23/02 06/04 20/10 24/11 23/03 09/03 26/03 03/11 18/08

12/01 -

Granada

Osasuna

18

-

Barcelona

Almería Almería

Athletic Bilbao

Atlético Madrid

AWAY H O M E

Athletic Bilbao

FIXTURES

30/03 10/11 19/01 27/04 25/08 22/12 01/12 25/09 12/01 09/03 12/01 02/03 02/02 06/10 15/09 25/08 11/05 25/09 24/11 06/10 15/09 16/03 16/02 02/02 19/01 02/03 20/04

10/11 26/01 23/02 20/10 18/05 04/05 22/09 05/01 09/02 18/08 29/09 09/03 -

30/10 15/12 30/03 23/03 20/04 13/04 01/09

16/03 04/05 26/01 22/09 20/04 06/04 18/08 24/11 18/05 15/12 01/09 09/02 26/03 -

03/11 06/10 23/02 02/03 27/10 05/01

13/04 01/09 29/09 23/03 18/08 05/01 23/02 18/05 22/09 26/01 09/03 20/10 27/04 30/03 -

10/11 30/10 04/05 01/12 09/02

27/10 05/01 01/09 23/02 15/12 24/11 26/01 20/04 18/08 04/05 09/02 22/09 03/11 09/03 06/04 -

29/09 16/03 26/03 18/05

06/10 15/12 18/08 09/02 24/11 03/11 18/05 06/04 05/01 20/04 26/01 01/09 27/10 25/09 26/03 02/03 -

16/02 16/03 04/05

30/10 09/03 27/04 01/09 09/02 18/05 13/04 26/01 30/03 23/02 05/01 18/08 01/12 29/09 22/12 20/10 22/09 -

10/11 23/03

30/03 18/08 22/09 09/03 05/01 15/12 09/02 04/05 01/09 18/05 23/02 29/09 24/11 23/03 20/04 30/10 20/10 06/04 -

26/01

19/01 16/03 10/11 27/04 02/03 16/02 30/03 25/09 30/10 06/10 13/04 01/12 02/02 11/05 15/09 12/01 22/12 27/10 25/08 -

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Valencia should be good enough to take fourth

Real Madrid have scoured the country for Spain’s brightest young things and have ended up taking on Asier Illarramendi from Real Sociedad and Isco from Malaga. In doing so, new coach Carlo Ancelotti has got a back-up and eventual replacement for Xabi Alonso, and a creative talent brimming with ideas for unlocking opposition defences. Off the pitch, Ancelotti’s harmonious approach should reunite a fractured dressing room after the spats and arguments of the Jose Mourinho era. Below the Big Two, Atlético Madrid will once again be the team to follow. Coach Diego Simeone is now tied to a long contract and acted smartly to snap up David Villa as replacement for Radamel Falcao (now at Monaco). The capital’s second club look well set to retain their position as best of the rest. Valencia are the tip to claim the final Champions League spot after Sociedad, Málaga and Sevilla all lost key players.

outright prices Barcelona 1.7

Valencia 100.0

Real Madrid 2.4

Málaga 120.0

A Madrid

R Sociedad 120.0

60.0

Primera Division

The Ancelotti effect

Recommended bets Champions

Atlético lost Falcao but gained David Villa

Real Madrid’s Carlo Ancelotti has signed players in all the right positions. Barça are the short favourites but the value is with Real.

Back Real Madrid @ 2.4 relegation Levante won just two of their final 17 games last season. With no money, new boss Joaquín Caparrós has lots to do if he’s to keep the Frogs out of trouble.

Back Levante @ 5.0

w Bet no

Betfair.com/exchange Back Levante to be relegated n Barça’s new manager is Gerado Martino, the man who took Paraguay to the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup. He is held in high esteem by Lionel Messi and the change only shifted their price out fractionally.

n Lionel Messi is a goal machine. He contributed an incredible 46 goals in 38 games last season, 40% of Barcelona’s total of 115 and 12 more than the second highest scorer, Real Madrid’s Cristiano Ronaldo.

18+

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19


2013/14 football handbook

Bundesliga 1 Dortmund fans might think otherwise, but we see the Bundesliga as a one-horse race

Augsburg

-

B Munich

09/11 -

Braunschweig Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt Freiburg

Wolfsburg

W Bremen

01/02 25/08 23/11 15/02 05/04 07/12 21/12 02/11 26/03 01/03 15/09 19/10 28/09 10/08 15/03

25/01 23/11 18/08 -

15/02 28/09 14/09 19/10 21/12 03/05 07/12 19/04 15/03 01/03 26/03 02/11 23/08 05/04

21/12 17/08 08/02 01/09 -

15/03 28/09 19/04 25/01 07/12 03/05 05/04 26/03 19/10 23/11 01/03 22/02 02/11

22/02 27/08 12/04 08/03 05/10 -

26/10 21/12 21/09 08/02 25/01 17/08 19/04 29/03 03/05 09/11 22/03 07/12

21/09 22/02 09/11 22/03 30/11 10/05 12/04 -

23/11 08/02 17/08 05/04 21/12 02/11 15/03 25/01 19/10 21/09 19/04 05/10 26/10 08/03 31/08 01/02 14/12 24/08 26/04 29/03 10/08

30/11 26/03 26/04 10/05 10/08 01/03 24/08 15/03 -

05/04 23/11 28/09 19/10 01/02 02/11 13/09 14/12 15/02

Hoffenheim

12/04 02/11 10/05 14/12 26/04 24/08 01/02 26/03 09/11 -

Leverkusen

26/10 05/10 29/03 26/04 14/12 10/08 09/11 28/09 12/04 22/03 -

19/10 15/03 15/09 10/08 28/09 15/02 30/11 01/03 01/03 24/08 30/11 15/02 01/02 10/05 14/09

29/03 22/03 26/10 30/11 09/11 01/02 10/05 15/02 08/03 05/10 21/09 -

14/12 26/04 14/09 11/08 12/04 24/08

Mgladbach

08/03 25/01 21/09 05/10 26/10 30/11 29/03 17/08 22/03 22/02 08/02 03/05 -

Nuremberg

31/08 08/02 22/02 21/09 22/03 02/11 05/10 03/05 18/08 25/01 19/04 07/12 05/04 -

Stuttgart

Stuttgart

30/11 12/04 01/02 15/02 14/12 14/09 26/10 29/03 15/03 19/10 09/08 24/08 01/03 10/05 26/04 28/09

03/05 19/04 -

07/12 03/05 31/08 22/02 08/03 26/03 -

Schalke

Schalke

Nuremberg

Mgladbach

Mainz

Leverkusen

Hoffenheim

Hertha Berlin

Hannover

Hamburg

Freiburg

Dortmund

05/04 14/12 10/08 10/05 14/09 26/04 01/03 19/04 23/11 26/03 02/11 28/09 15/02 15/03 25/08 01/02 19/10

Hamburg

Mainz

18+

Emerick Aubameyang, their squad looks light. Newly-promoted Hertha Berlin are a good bet to stay clear of the relegation dogfight. They have made solid signings and wily coach Jos Luhukay kept Augsburg up two seasons ago. Eintracht Braunschweig could be this season’s Greuther Furth and lack the quality to survive. Freiburg may be a good back-to-lay in the Bottom Two market. They have lost five key players, including attacker Max Kruse, and have to play Leverkusen, Bayern and Dortmund in their first seven games. Werder Bremen are also attractively priced in the same market. They have lost key players and will take time to adjust to the departure of long-serving coach Thomas Schaaf.

Hannover Hertha Berlin

20

B Munich

Augsburg

AWAY H O M E

Braunschweig

FIXTURES

Eintracht Frankfurt

Jupp Heynckes delivered a trophy-laden, record-breaking 2012/13, completing a treble of Champions League, Bundesliga and German Cup triumphs for Bayern. So how can new boss Pep Guardiola outshine him? He doesn’t have to – he just has to keep winning trophies. The market suspects Bayern will retain their Bundesliga crown and it’s hard to disagree. The signing of Mario Götze from Borussia Dortmund was a huge coup, and they have strength in depth in every position. Dortmund finished a sobering 25 points behind Bayern, and although they have made decent acquisitions in Shakhtar Donetsk playmaker Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Saint-Etienne forward Pierre-

09/11 07/12 12/04 31/08 21/12 21/12 26/03 08/03 23/11

05/10 21/09 22/03 26/10 12/04 14/12 11/08 08/02 29/03 08/03 31/08 22/02 26/04 10/05 -

30/11 09/11 01/02

08/02 TBC 08/03 29/03 21/09 05/04 22/03 07/12 22/02 01/09 17/08 25/01 23/11 26/10 19/04 -

05/10 03/05

W Bremen

17/08 07/12 25/01 08/02 14/09 19/10 01/03 02/11 03/05 19/04 21/12 23/11 15/02 28/09 05/04 15/03 -

Wolfsburg

22/03 08/03 05/10 09/11 29/03 26/04 30/11 25/01 31/08 21/09 22/02 08/02 10/05 12/04 17/08 14/12 26/10 -

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26/03


Pep Guardiola takes the reigns at Bayern Munich

outright prices B Munich

1.2

Leverkusen 48.0

Dortmund 7.4

Stuttgart 80.0

Schalke 34.0

Wolfsburg 120.0

BUNDESLIGA 1

Bayern should come out on top of Dortmund

Recommended bets Champions The defending champions have an even stronger squad than last season and should comfortably retain their crown.

Back Bayern Munich @ 1.2 Bottom Two Both Freiburg and Werder Bremen face tough starts so could offer good back-to-lay opportunities. Back them early, then wait for their prices to contract. n Bayern won the title in emphatic fashion last season. They topped the table from start to finish and claimed the Bundesliga crown after only 28 matches, two better than their previous record.

n Stefan Kießling helped Bayer Leverkusen into the third Champions League spot with 25 of the 65 goals scored in their campaign. He was the Bundesliga’s top scorer and we think he can do it again.

Back-to-lay Freiburg @ 7.6 Back-to-lay Werder Bremen @ 12.0

w Bet no

Betfair.com/exchange

The experts – Betting.Betfair.com get regular tips from our resident experts Kevin Hatchard n Kevin’s enthusiasm for German football began with the day-glo clad Borussia Dortmund side which conquered Europe in 1997, and it was reinforced by the wholehearted displays of Karl-Heinz Riedle for his beloved Liverpool. He maintains the Bundesliga is the coolest league in Europe.

Can Stefan Kießling’s goals lift Leverkusen?

18+

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21


2013/14 football handbook

Serie A With extra firepower, the Old Lady looks a great bet to clinch her third title in a row Juventus have won the Serie A title for the last two seasons, and are the starting point for any bet on the winner’s market this time around. The Turin club are extremely hard to oppose, particularly as one or two weaknesses in the squad have been addressed. The summer signings of Fernando Llorente and Carlos Tévez mean that goals, which have been Juve’s only real weakness, should flow more freely. Juventus are odds-on to win Serie A, and that’s a fair price especially given that their third big signing, Angelo Ogbonna, strengthens them defensively.

Big prices The opposition to Antonio Conte’s side may not come from AC Milan, Napoli and Inter, as the market would suggest (although if Higuaín finds his scoring touch quickly Napoli could pose a threat), but from the next two teams in the betting, Roma and Fiorentina. Roma have appointed an excellent new coach in former Lille boss Rudi Garcia, and have a squad that seems destined to ignite under the right management, while Fiorentina were unfortunate not to finish higher than fourth under Vincenzo Montella last season. With their impressively

11/05 -

Bologna

25/09 30/03 -

Cagliari

26/01 25/08 30/10 -

Fiorentina Genoa Inter Juventus Lazio Livorno Napoli Parma Roma Sampdoria Sassuolo Torino Udinese Verona

Verona

Udinese

Torino

Sassuolo

Sampdoria

Roma

Parma

Napoli

Livorno

Lazio

Juventus

Inter

Genoa

Chievo

Catania

Cagliari

-

Atalanta

Chievo

18+

Bologna

AC Milan

Catania

22

Atalanta

AC Milan

AWAY H O M E

Fiorentina

FIXTURES

06/01 16/02 01/09 13/04 30/3 03/11 24/11 04/05 02/03 30/10 19/04 22/09 16/03 15/12 29/09 18/05 02/02 20/10 19/01 10/11 19/01 12/01 02/03 22/09 27/04 30/10 22/12 20/10 26/03 02/02 16/02 01/12 16/03 06/04 01/09 29/09 19/04 23/03 11/05 03/11 27/04 22/12 24/11 08/12 12/01 27/10 19/01 13/04 23/02 01/09 09/03 22/09 02/02 06/10 20/10 11/05 02/02 08/12 29/09 12/01 16/03 16/02 22/12 27/04 06/04 22/09 01/12 10/11 02/03 26/03

01/12 18/05 06/01 09/03 -

29/09 19/01 06/10 01/09 23/03 16/02 02/02 26/03 22/09 04/05 19/04 27/10 06/04 10/11 15/12

10/11 06/10 26/03 06/01 23/02 -

27/10 09/03 18/05 25/09 02/02 01/12 01/09 19/01 23/03 15/12 19/04 04/05 22/09 06/04

26/03 09/02 15/12 15/09 25/08 16/03 -

26/01 16/02 20/10 02/03 06/01 30/10 29/09 19/04 10/11 04/05 18/05 06/04 01/12

06/04 15/12 04/05 19/04 02/03 20/10 01/09 -

19/01 16/03 26/03 22/09 29/09 30/10 18/05 02/02 06/01 01/12 16/02 10/11

22/12 23/03 06/04 23/02 26/01 12/01 25/09 25/08 -

15/09 11/05 10/11 27/04 08/12 06/10 01/12 09/02 09/03 26/03 27/10

06/10 04/05 19/04 18/05 30/10 16/02 09/03 27/10 02/02 -

01/09 06/04 10/11 26/03 06/01 19/01 15/12 23/02 01/12 22/09

23/03 09/03 18/05 27/10 25/09 15/09 06/10 03/11 06/01 26/01 - 15/12 01/12 30/03 09/02 06/04 23/02 19/04 25/08 04/05 08/12 03/11 16/03 25/09 15/09 13/04 11/05 09/02 30/03 24/11 27/04 -

02/03 12/01 25/08 20/10 26/01 30/10 22/12 23/02

09/02 15/09 25/08 04/05 03/11 26/01 23/03 23/02 15/12 30/03 13/04 06/10 -

24/11 09/03 06/01 25/09 27/10 08/12 18/05

27/10 25/09 01/12 15/12 09/02 25/08 23/02 23/03 19/04 03/11 10/11 18/05 06/04 -

15/09 04/05 06/10 06/01 26/01 09/03

27/04 13/04 29/09 24/11 22/12 30/10 08/12 12/01 02/03 11/05 22/09 19/01 20/10 02/02 -

16/02 10/11 26/03 16/03 01/09

23/02 27/10 26/01 09/02 08/12 27/04 30/03 15/09 13/04 25/08 24/11 09/03 11/05 22/12 25/09 -

03/11 06/10 12/01 23/03

12/01 24/11 20/10 13/04 16/03 08/12 22/12 11/05 22/09 27/04 29/09 01/09 16/02 02/03 30/03 26/03 -

19/01 30/10 02/02

15/09 26/01 09/02 30/03 24/11 22/12 12/01 13/04 20/10 29/09 08/12 23/03 16/03 11/05 03/11 02/03 25/08 - 27/04 25/09 09/03 23/02 15/09 06/10 30/03 09/02 24/11 25/09 03/11 13/04 19/01 04/05 19/04 01/09 27/10 18/05 23/03 15/12 -

06/01

25/08 08/12 02/03 03/11 27/04 24/11 13/04 30/03 16/03 09/02 22/12 29/09 12/01 20/10 26/01 30/10 15/09 16/02 11/05 -

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serie a

steady recruitment policy, Fiorentina might just outrun their pre-season odds of 15.0. Milan may be a shorter price than Roma and Fiorentina but the Rossoneri aren’t quite there yet, and Napoli and Inter have appointed overrated new coaches in Benítez and Mazzarri respectively, meaning it’s hard to justify their prices either. At long odds, Roma and Fiorentina may be worth a small investment to win the title, or backing in the Top Three Finish market instead.

Roma are big odds to win the Serie A title

outright prices

Will Carlos Tévez settle in Turin?

Juventus 1.8

Inter Milan 13.0

AC Milan

Fiorentina 15.0

5.6

Napoli 7.6

Roma

30.0

Recommended bets Champions Despite their Champions League involvement, Juventus should be far too good for everyone for the third season in a row.

Back Juventus @ 1.8 Relegation Newly promoted teams have done relatively well in recent seasons, but they’ve included some big names with financial backing. This season will be very hard for Sassuolo, Verona and Livorno. While they remain odds-against, Sassuolo look good value to go down.

Back Sassuolo @ 2.1

w Bet no

Betfair.com/exchange n Arsenal’s loss is Napoli’s gain and with Higuaín spearheading the attack Napoli could be a danger. Penalties aside, his conversion rate was an impressive 43% in 2011/12 and 32% in 2012/13.

n Carlos Tévez notched an impressive 23 goals in 35 appearances in his first full season at Man City. If he can do the same for Juventus he’ll be well worth the paltry £12m they paid for his services.

AC Milan will struggle to keep up with Juve

18+

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23


2013/14 football handbook

2013/14 FOOTBALL CALENDAR It’s a big year for football, so make sure you don’t miss a bet with Betfair

24

FA Cup (ITV and BT Sport)

Capital One Cup (Sky Sports)

Draws to be made on the Sunday of the fixtures n Round 1 w/c November 9 n Round 2 w/c December 7 n Round 3 (Premier League clubs enter) w/c January 4 n Round 4 w/c January 25 n Round 5 w/c February 15 n Quarter finals March 8 n Semi finals April 12-13 n Final Wembley Stadium, London, May 17

n Round 1 w/c August 5 n Round 2 w/c August 26 n Round 3 w/c September 23 n Round 4 w/c October 28 n Quarter finals w/c December 16 n Semi finals (leg one) w/c January 6 n Semi finals (leg two) w/c January 20 n Final Wembley Stadium, London, March 2

Recommended bet The Reds are heading in the right direction under Brendan Rodgers and will want to claim a reward for their progress. A title challenge is still beyond Liverpool but they have the ability and motivation you look for in a good cup team.

Recommended bet How much longer can Arsène Wenger go without winning something? It’s eight years since Arsenal lifted a trophy and pressure is building on the Frenchman. But the Gunners have a new sense of ambition this time around. Twice losers in the final of this competition under Wenger, they’re a decent price to finally end their barren run.

Back Liverpool @ 11.5

Back Arsenal @ 10.0

18+

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Europa League

World Cup qualifiers

(ITV and Sky Sports)

(ITV and BT Sport)

(ITV and Sky Sports)

Group stage (Draw August 29) n Matchday one September 17-18 n Matchday two October 1-2 n Matchday three October 22-23 n Matchday four November 5-6 n Matchday five November 26-27 n Matchday six December 10-11

Group stage (Draw August 30) n Matchday one September 19 n Matchday two October 3 n Matchday three October 24 n Matchday four November 7 n Matchday five November 28 n Matchday six December 12

September 6 n England v Moldova n Republic of Ireland v Sweden

Round of 16 (Draw December 13) n First leg February 18-19 or 25-26 n Second leg March 11-12 or 18-19

Round of 32 (Draw December 13) n First leg February 20 n Second leg February 27

October 11 n England v Montenegro n Germany v Republic of Ireland

Quarter finals (Draw March 21) n First leg April 1-2 n Second leg April 8-9

Round of 16 n First leg March 13 n Second leg March 20

October 15 n England v Poland n Republic of Ireland v Kazakhstan

Semi finals (Draw April 11) n First leg April 22-23 n Second leg April 29-30

Quarter finals (Draw March 21) n First leg April 3 n Second leg April 10

2014 World Cup Finals, Brazil

Final Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, May 24

Semi finals (Draw April 11) n First leg April 24 n Second leg May 1

CALENDAR

Champions League

September 10 n Ukraine v England n Austria v Republic of Ireland

(BBC and ITV, draw December 6)

Recommended bet Is there any logic to the French champions being a bigger price than Manchester City and Juventus? New signing Edinson Cavani will form the world’s deadliest strikeforce alongside Zlatan Ibrahimović while the defence is marshalled by Brazilian captain Thiago Silva, arguably the world’s best centre-back.

Back PSG @ 19.0

Final Juventus Stadium, Turin, May 14 Chelsea won the 2012/13 Europa League after being eliminated from the Champions League. Tottenham are the 2013/14 pre-tournament favourites. With the winner as likely to be a Champions League dropout this is one to keep a watching brief on.

n Group stage June 12-26 n Round of 16 June 28 – July 1 n Quarter finals July 4-5 n Semi finals July 8-9 n Third place July 12 Final Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, July 13 Recommended bet Blessed with some of the finest young talent, Germany are ready to get their hands on the biggest prize again.

Back Germany @ 6.2

18+

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25


2013/14 football handbook

The Betfair Edge With Betfair you can bet how you want, when you want – and with Betfair Mobile – wherever you are. Here are six reasons to bet with Betfair this season…

1

Back or lay

n Choose which side of the bet you want to take With a traditional bookie you can only back selections. On the Betfair Exchange you can choose to back or lay – back prices are displayed in blue and lay prices in pink. In these examples, you can see prices for the 2013/14 Premier League. Man City are the favourites and you can back them at 3.4. If you bet £100 on this and they won, you’d get £340 back pre-commission (Betfair takes up to 5% commission on winning bets). You can also take the other side of the bet and lay Man City. If you lay Man City for £100 at 3.45, your liability – the amount you stand to lose if they win the title – is £245. If anyone other than Man City win the title, then you win £100 (pre-commission).

If you think Man City will win the Premier League, back them at 3.4

If you don’t fancy their chances you can bet against them on the Exchange

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How to bet

2

Bet View slider

new

n See the best odds for the money you want to bet Occasionally, on the Betfair Exchange you may see very high prices with small amounts available to fully match your bet. Placing your bet here would result in a partially matched bet. To avoid this Betfair have introduced the new Bet View Slider, which enables you to see the best price available to match your bet immediately.

The Bet View Slider allows you to see the best price available

How it works

n You think Robin van Persie is going to be the top scorer in the Premier League and want to back him for £100. The biggest price on the Exchange is 5.2 but there’s only £2 of funds available at that price. n By moving the slider to £100 the Exchange displays the minimum price that the bet would be matched at – 4.9. n Happy with those odds you place the bet. Betfair has a system called ‘Best Execution’ which means your bet is matched at the best prices available at the time you place it. Clicking on Open Bets you’ll see that the £100 has been matched across four different prices – £2 at 5.2, £28 at 5.1, £22 at 5.0 and the remainder at 4.9. n You can also use the Bet View Slider on the Exchange Mobile app. You can set the slider’s default value in the settings menu.

Move the slider to see the minimum price your bet will be matched at

‘Best Execution’ ensures you get the best prices available. The average price matched overall is 4.98

3

Cash Out

n Close your bet when you want, not when the event finishes On the Betfair Exchange you can Cash Out of a bet when you want. Cash Out enables you to lock in a profit, or get out of a losing bet, with a single click of a button. Say you backed Man City for £100 at the start of the Premier League season at odds of 3.4. With five matches left at the end of the season they’re in pole position and their odds have now shortened to 1.8. By clicking Cash Out you can lock in a £89 profit and enjoy the final few games knowing that whatever happens, you’ve already won.

18+

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27


2013/14 football handbook

4

Betfair Mobile

n Get the official Exchange app and bet on the move on Apple or Android devices You can bet whenever you want and wherever you are with Betfair Mobile. You can bet with Betfair on any mobile browser at Betfair.com, or get the official Exchange app for the ultimate Betfair Mobile experience.

Get the app! Betfair Exchange Betting Apple: download from the App Store – search ‘Betfair’ Android: go to Betfair.com and tap ‘Download Betfair’ icon (ensure ‘Unknown Sources’ is checked under the Settings Menu in applications)

5

Get involved!

n Join the Betfair community online and make even more informed bets Facebook

With over 140,000 members, Betfair’s Facebook community is the perfect place to share hot tips, get the latest offers and enter exclusive competitions.

Twitter

For up-to-the-minute updates, breaking news, special offers, tips and analysis, make sure you follow Betfair on Twitter.

@BetfairSports Your official Exchange feed boasting a combination of news, analysis, exclusive competitions and free bets.

@Betfair

All the latest news, info and offers from the Sportsbook.

@BetfairRacing

For the very latest racing drama on the Betfair Exchange.

@BetfairHelpdesk

If you’ve got a problem, or any questions about Betfair, the Helpdesk feed is the place to come for a quick response.

Help & Learning – en.learning.betfair.com

If you want to know more about any aspect of Betfair, or you’re looking to improve your betting techniques and strategies, check out the Help & Learning site. It’s packed with video tutorials and FAQs on everything from Cash Out to the new Bet View Slider.

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Betting.Betfair.com Betfair has assembled some of the world’s finest tipsters and you can find their latest analysis and recommended bets at Betting.Betfair. Remember to check closer to and during events for the very latest news and stats to help you make even more informed bets.


Betfair Multiples

n Place Multiples online or on the go with Betfair Mobile Multiples or accumulators are a great way of winning more from smaller stakes. The simplest Multiple is a double, where you place a bet on two selections. Both selections have to come in for you to win. So if you bet £10 on the outcome of two games of football, with odds of 3.0 each, you get £90 back if they both come in. This is because your first winning bet would pay out £20 in profit, which is added to your £10 initial stake for a £30 bet on the second. If this bet wins you get £60 in profit plus your £30 stake for a total return of £90. The more selections you add the bigger your odds – and potential winnings – will be, and you can create Multiples across a number of different sports.

How to bet

6

“you can place cross-sport multiples wherever you are with betfair mobile” Bigger prices

Place Multiples and win big from small stakes

You can also focus on football matches to create a bigger price bet from a number of odds-on favourites, which you’ll find each week in all the big leagues across Europe. By selecting the teams you think are almost certain to win, you can create a decent odds-against wager. It couldn’t be easier to place a Multiple with Betfair. Just make your singles selections as usual and then click the ‘Multiples’ tab on your betslip. All your betting options are displayed and the odds calculated instantly. You can also place Multiples wherever you are on Betfair Mobile.

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29


Hit the football

jackpot

Follow our predictions for the big winners this season and try your hand at some Betfair Multiples for an even bigger return. How high can you go?

League 1 Back Wolves @

4.5

Five-f

Bundesliga 1 Back Bayern Munich @

5.0

S i x- f o

Premier League Back Chelsea @

Four-

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2.25

£146

Trebl

Championship Back Reading @

X

X

9.0

-f Seven

Betfair multiples

18+

fold:

2 9 ,5 4 old: £

e: £20

Primera Division Back Real Madrid @

X

3.25

All Multiples on this page calculated to a £10 stake using Sportsbook prices

30

1.72

Doubl

X

,2 8 3 ld: £3

X

1.16

657 old: £

League 2 Back Portsmouth @

Serie A Back Juventus @

5

e: £45

Capital One Cup back Arsenal @

9.0

-fo Eight

6 5 ,9 ld: £2

01

w Bet no Betfair.com/exchange


WIN BIGGER WITH BETFAIR At the start of each match in the last two Premier League seasons, we gave you better prices in the match odds market than William Hill on 447 of the 760 matches, better than Bet365 on 471 and better than Ladbrokes on 476.

447 313

471 289

476 284

YOU DECIDE

Exchange prices only. 5% commision has been deducted from Betfair prices. Other charges may apply. See betchecker.betfair.com/football for verification.


FIND YOUR EDGE This SEASON

Betfair's Football Handbook 2013-14  

Betfair's indespensible football betting handbook for the 2013/14 seasons. Premier league, The Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Bu...

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