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market trends For week ending October 18, 2019


market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce Market Overview The weather has cooled back down a bit and we are seeing better nighttime temps. Product is still showing some defects for the most part. But we are seeing a few romaine fields and occasional iceberg fields that met Peak specifications. With that said we will continue to be in and out of brand for the remainder of the Salinas season until we get into Yuma product in the second week of November. Adverse weather continues to disrupt supply by reducing yields on various items. Due to the short supply and the market conditions associated with these events, lettuce, romaine, broccoli, and cauliflower are ESCALATED. We are also seeing quality issues such as mildew and insect damage. Pumpkins and Zucchini are good buys.

MARKET ALERT •

Broccoli – ESCALATED

Cauliflower – ESCALATED

Iceberg - ESCALATED

Limes (Large) – ESCALATED

Romaine - ESCALATED

Tomatoes – Rounds and Romas (East

WATCH LIST Coast) •

Sweet Potatoes and Yams

Apples & Pears Gala apples are done. Granny Smiths are available. Pears: Bartletts are in good supply. Bosc are limited. Fair supply of red pears. Asian pears have started. Artichokes There is a lighter supply of artichokes available. Most of our volume this week is estimated to be 30s and 24s. Quality is excellent. Demand is good; prices are higher. Arugula Supplies have started to tighten up rather rapidly, due to the recent heatwave we have experienced in our valley. There’s good demand, but the industry overall seems to be in light supply, with quality related issues. We’re hoping supplies could be better by possibly by the second half of this week, weather permitting.

GOOD BUYS

Each week, we want to spotlight commodities based on how favorable prices, quality, and supply are in the market. Stay ahead of the trends and look to these good buys for their stellar performance in the fields! Commodity Market Update

Produce Expert Tip

Zucchini Squash

The zucchini is one of the easiest vegetables for new gardeners to grow from seed - simple to care for, quick to grow, reliably prolific and endlessly useful in the kitchen.

Zucchini prices are steady to up for the week, and quality is good.

SALINAS FORECAST

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce (continued) Asparagus Supply is improving. Avocados Avocado markets are currently split, depending on size. 48’s and larger are steady to stronger, while 60’s and smaller are steady to weaker. Over the next couple of weeks there could be up to a $15 spread between a 60ct and smaller, and a 48 and larger, with the 48’s being higher. The current size curve is weighted towards the smaller fruit and as big fruit begins to disappear those users will move down sizes to get covered. The new crop is still very clean, and #2 fruit is still around 5% of the total pack out. At this point 90% of the avocadoes are coming from MX, and no new fruit is being sent from Chile or Peru. Bananas Bananas are in a good supply. Quality is good with no issues to be expected in the near future. Plantains remain tight. Beans EAST: Bean deals are extremely short in the east, pallet deals only. FOBs on the higher end with the quality fair throughout. There are still plenty of beans in the East, as MI, DE, VA, TN, and GA are all in production with good quality. TN, MI, DE and ND will begin to wind down production, but we do not foresee a gap in supply. WEST: Beans in Coastal California remains on the limited side but expects to continue through October if the weather permits. Our Baja farms are seeing some volume increases and expect more consistent supply as we move into October. The California Desert is also on tap to begin production in about 2 weeks.

Strawberries Demand is good for quality strawberries. There will be limited availability for the week. Bok Choy All packs remain short in supply. Broccoli Supplies are very light this week and the market is on the rise. Broccoli quality is improving, but we are still seeing some yellow bead and light pin rot. Brussels Sprouts The open sprout market is maintaining good momentum from last week and looks like it will stay strong. Supplies are still ok. Cantaloupe We are going here on the Westside with lighter volume, peaking on 9’s and 12’s now so smaller fruit a bit tighter and all sizes basically tighter and market is moving upwards and strengthening. The overall quality is very good with a nice clean net and good internal color and a tight cavity. Sugars are as high as 13-14 which is excellent. We will be going through Mid-October. Carrots Supply and quality are good.

Berries: Blackberries Demand is very good, and supply is very limited. CA is winding down and MX production has been affected by rain and hail in Los Reyes. Supply is gapping. Blueberries Demand is good. Supplies are increasing from Peru, Argentina, Uruguay, Mexico. Quality is very good on the imported blues. Raspberries Demand is fair, supplies are increasing out of MX and more MX raspberries are being brought to the US.

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce (continued) Cauliflower Weather conditions continue to affect plant growth, resulting in limited availability this week. Celery There are lower volumes for celery in Salinas. Most of the volume is the larger sized 24’s. The market is better, and quality is excellent. Cilantro Supplies are below normal this week. Corn Markets are stable despite lighter supply out of New York and Michigan; we will see Georgia and Florida ramp up any time this week or next. Out west, California will be ramping up for the fall crop, and Colorado will continue bringing market prices down in the west. Cucumbers EAST: Cucumber crops are slowing down in the Northern States (NY, NJ, MI) but there should be product availability for another 7-10 days. Eastern NC has continued with strong volumes due to the heat pushing the crop along. This heat push has projected them to finish up next week, 7-10 days earlier than expected. With the weather, quality has remained good, but not perfect. GA’s first harvest’s quality is fair most likely due to the immense heat which will improve as the weather is expected to cool down shortly. FL crop is looking to begin at the end of October expecting GA and the remaining local deals to cover the transitional gap. WEST: In the West, Baja volumes have slowed down due to the cool weather, but quality remains strong. Expect a downward pressure on volumes toward the end of the month in Baja as some late season growers didn’t go in with late plantings. Mainland Mexico farms started 10 days earlier than usual and more growers are expected to start within the next week, so we don’t expect a production gap. Quality out of Baja remains strong.

English Cucumbers ESCALATED The market will continue to be firm through the end of October as production GAPS are expected in Canada and they are beginning to wind down for the season. Mexico will start light production the third week of October. Fennel Supply is slightly above demand. We will continue to see a majority of production available by way of 18ct and 24ct throughout the week. Quality remains strong with no issues to note. Garlic Supply is fairly tight, and the overall market remains volatile. The market is higher. Ginger Chinese ginger markets are mixed, but quality is good. Also, product is available at higher costs from Brazil, Peru and Thailand.

Eggplant EAST: A couple northern growers still have product, but the Eggplant production is moving south! NC and SC farms are expected to stretch another 2-3 weeks where then the East will shift to a FL/GA deal. There is plenty of product around as demand has not been the greatest. WEST: In the West, Fresno is this week’s place to go when looking for Eggplants. Stockton is done for the season and Nogales shippers are still another two weeks away to getting going. California Dessert, Coachella Eggplant will be showing in end of October to mid- November. FOBs looking steady and quality is superb. 4


market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce (continued) Grapes We are going full speed here in the Central Valley and will continue with good volume through December, the overall crop looks good, and hopefully quality continues to stay good barring any crazy weather going forward. We are going on several different varieties of reds and greens as well as packing snack packs. Green Cabbage Supplies are steady/fair this week. Red Cabbage Supplies are steady/fair this week. Green Onions Supplies in Northern Mexico are down, due to heat and humidity over the past 6 weeks. Consequently, we are seeing higher pricing. Demand will be picking up within the next week, due to local production in eastern growing areas winding down for the season. Honeydew We are going on the Westside as well and peaking on the bigger fruit, smaller sizes on the tight side. The overall quality is very good as well with a green to cream cast and tight cavity with excellent internal color and sugar as well. Jicama Storage product available--will see blemishing due to the fact it’s storage fruit. Good supply available.

Lettuce: Butter There are lighter volumes on butter lettuce. We are continuing to see occasional irregular sizing, with some burn. Demand is advancing along with market pricing. Green Leaf Green Leaf volumes are currently on budget. There is occasional irregular sizing and fringe/wind burn. Demand is slowly gaining, along with other leaf items. Market pricing is steadily advancing. Red Leaf Red leaf volumes are on budget for the week. Demand has increased and market pricing is firming up. Iceberg Lettuce ESCALATED Lettuce supply will be even lower than last week. Many fields are still ahead of schedule by up to two weeks, creating gaps in harvest. Overall quality continues to be steady, with occasional small defects. Seeders are bigger than normal. The market is very active, mainly due to light supply. Romaine ESCALATED Romaine is slightly below budget for the next couple of weeks. There is still occasional fringe/wind burn, insect pressure, twist, and seeders in the romaine products. With some recent changes in temperatures, combined with reduced yields, we are seeing less industry supply available. Market prices are rising due to strong demand.

Kale (green) Supplies have decreased this week. We are seeing some yellow leaves. Lemons We are packing Dist. 2 (Coastal Regions) fruit and will be harvesting through September. The overall color is good but you will see some green as well due to the time of the year we are gassing to bring on color but you will still see some green stem end and blossom end, the fruit is on the firm side. We have started our Dist 3 (Desert Region), the first pick looks on the smaller side peaking on 165’s and 140’s, fruit will continue to size up as we go forward. We are also crossing fruit from Mexico and will continue to do so through September and possibly into October, the fruit quality has been excellent. There are also Chilean, Argentinean and Spanish lemons here as well which has really saturated the market

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce (continued) Romaine Hearts ESCALATED Romaine is slightly below budget for the next couple of weeks. There is still occasional fringe/wind burn, insect pressure, twist, and seeders in the romaine products. With some recent changes in temperatures, combined with reduced yields, we are seeing less industry supply available. Market prices are rising due to strong demand. Limes (Large ESCALATED) Market is down on small sizes. There is some ease on the 150ct now too. 110ct is still tight and will continue to be that way next week and maybe the week after. Napa Supplies are steady. Onions The onion market has taken a small dip in pricing as demand was fallen off some. Growers are focused on finishing harvest and storage and working around the clock to try to get product in before the hard freeze comes in. We are seeing one of the earliest freezes in the Northwest in over 30 years. Onion growers are expressing concern about getting all product harvested and stored prior to any long-term freeze damage taking place. Sizing has improved on yellows, and we are seeing Colossals and Super Colossals come down in price and get much closer to Jumbo pricing levels. Mediums still remain plentiful as well. It was initially believed that the Northwest onion crops were down from last year a bit and were going to experience a much more ‘normal’ supply situation. Depending on what happens with the freeze, the supply situation could drastically change.

Oranges Small oranges getting very tight as we move through the season, please expect prices to continue to firm up on 88’s and smaller both grades. We will continue through October on Valencia’s also some Chilean navels are arriving as well with mostly bigger sizes, the overall crop volume is of normal volume size structure, peaking on 72’s , 56’s and then 88’s The overall quality of the Valencia’s looks good now but fruit will have a tinge of green and some heavier green due to our extremely hot temperatures, with good internal juice and sugars are 12-13 so eating good, and keep in mind they are a Valencia that has been on the tree for about 15 months. The re greening process and green that you see does not mean that the fruit is not ripe, the tree basically is taking care of next year’s crop that is on the tree and therefore this year’s fruit starts to re green. Parsley(Curly, Italian) Supplies and quality are good. Green Pepper EAST: Lipman availability continues to be strong in the East; however, the transition is starting to take place. With most areas winding down into their last picks, quality not holding its strong suit. Newer crops in SC are pumping our good numbers and should go into November, weather permitting. GA growers have started a light crop serving as a transition ground until FL crops begin at the end of October/first part of November. Quality is mixed out of the East with some on their last picks and some starting up. FOBs are steady. Quality is excellent. WEST: Western pepper production is still rocking along with multiple areas in CA offering good supply volumes. The cold weather in WA has arrived which will draw their season to a close over the next week. Jalapeños (Chiles) EAST: Eastern local deals are mostly done with the cooler weather possibly closing them out early. MI still has some product, but quality is declining. GA has started in a light way with jalapenos, cubanelles and serranos and should see mo0re varieties and volume as early as later this week. WEST: Baja and California’s production is beginning to slow down and WA/OR growers will finish up this week as the transition shifts East. With Sonora and Sinaloa starting up in November, we are hoping for good weather to extend our harvest until then. Coachella will have some chilies this year, but acreage is down. The projected volume will help bridge the potential gap in our transitional period.

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce (continued) Mini Sweet Peppers Baja’s production remains lighter, but we anticipate an increase sometime this month. Weather in Eastern WA got colder over the weekend and that will end the season sooner than originally thought. CA production has been steady so far this week but will decrease as farms move into 2nd picks. Red & Yellow Bell Peppers EAST & WEST: Both Mexico and Canada have Solid numbers of colored bells this week. Canada will begin to size down and have less fruit available as we move toward the end of the month. Mexico is crossing a steady supply of all colors and sizes, so there should be ample fruit available to meet overall market needs. Pineapple We are moving into months where we have good availability and good quality. Sizing will be trending large for the next 4-8 weeks. Idaho Potatoes Supply has further tightened this week across all sizes, as production continues to be limited. Rain and cold temperatures have prevented growers from harvesting and hauling potatoes, which has curtailed the available product to sell. Growers have been harvesting around the clock in an effort to get as many potatoes out of the ground before the hard freeze. There has been freezing temperatures as well as snow, and it is believed that there will be acreage lost to freeze. In what was already believed to be a short crop, may become shorter. We will likely not know the effects of the initial freeze until growers can attempt to harvest those potatoes. Assuming they can harvest those fields, there may be further loss as the potatoes sit in storage.

Sweet Potatoes and Yams WATCH LIST Growers have begun to dig their new crop of sweet potatoes for the upcoming season. This past year was a very volatile one for sweet potatoes due to hurricanes on the east coast affecting much of the crop; we saw prices on #1 sweets rise to almost $30 FOB. Growers are hoping the weather this year is much more favorable to avoid another year of tight supply and high prices. Yellow Squash/Zucchini EAST: Yellow Squash is fairly tight in the East as our crop is moving south with quality is fair. Zucchini volume is ok, and quality remains good. As it cools down everything is moving south, transitioning from MI, NY, NJ to SC and mostly GA where it should stay for another 4-5 weeks and furthermore move down to Florida. WEST: Volumes are very high. The west has already transitioned from a mostly CA deal to MX product. Santa Maria, Salinas, and Fresno have all lightened up on their volume, closing any gap in the transition to Nogales. Baja has started our fall acreage and we are seeing the first crossings from growers in the northern areas of Mainland MX. FOBs are steady. Quality is looking great.

Snow Peas Volume is good, weather could become an issue. Spinach (Bunched) Supply has improved, and quality is fair to good. Sugar Snap Peas Volume is tight due to weather issues in Guatemala. Spinach (Baby) Supply has improved, and quality is fair to good. Spring Mix Supply and quality are good.

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Produce (continued) TOMATOES EAST Rounds Overall Eastern availability is remaining light with the fall tomato transition well underway. We expect the mountain- area growers in TN and NC to be on their last few weeks of their season. Weather has been warm lately which has had some effect on the crop’s yield and sizing. Most product can be pulled from the GA/Quincy area, but some product can be pulled elsewhere as the week progresses. The projections are for lighter than normal volumes from this transition area, especially early, due to the high heat during fruit set. Ruskin/Palmetto harvest is projected to start during the week of the 21st. During this transition, FOBs will start moving upward, beginning with next week. Expect this trend to continue until the winter crop brings relief in about 4-6 weeks. Quality has remained excellent.

Romas Just like rounds, production numbers are light for our Romas. Product is being pulled from Ga/Quincy area. Ruskin/Palmetto will provide a good shot of product when it gets going in the end of October. Weather has been very hot in the GA/Quincy area which has affected the fruit set. Quality of fruit still on the vines continues to be good. Grapes/Cherries Overall, we have light volume with our Grape/Cherries in the East. Most of the local deals out of TN and NC are in their final rows and down to pallet quantities. There are light volumes in AL and a few from Quincy as well. Most growers have wrapped up in VA this week but has already started grapes in Ruskin/ Palmetto. As normal, early picks are on the larger size which should clean up as we move further into the crop. WEST/MEXICO Rounds CA’s mature green situation could stretch out until the end of October. Various growers are beginning to wind down with a trending down volume of their fruit. Baja and Eastern Mexico’s fruit should be seeing increased in volumes from fall plantings. Barring weather, we should see a smooth transition from West to East with fair quality on the fruit. The vine ripe situation out of Otay could run through mid- November with good size and good quality. FOBs are steady with fair quality available determined with the weather. Romas Roma situation is looking same as our Rounds with a downward trend in volume coming out of California as we transition from West to East. As our California supply is slowly dwindling down, the Baja and Texas volume is fair and trending up. Quality from CA continues to be fair due to the end of the season. The Western supply is still available out of CA for a few more weeks and in Mexico where more growers will break into fall acreage as we go through the month. Quality from Mexico is still the best option. CA FOBs are steady with a projected increase while Mexico remains steady. Grapes Mexico’s grape production is expected to increase this this month as Baja growers move into new block and their fall plantings become available. FOBs are steady with good to excellent quality available. Watermelons Seedless supply will be light through the first two weeks of October. Dwindling supply of CA fruit are bridging to increasing supply of MX fruit. Quality is currently pretty good, but we should see an improvement in both quality and availability as we get into the fall MX crop. 8


market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Beef, Veal & Lamb Beef production continues to ease, with last week’s 523.2 million pounds produced coming in 1% below the week prior and 1.4% less than last year. Slowing production schedules have done little to support beef prices, with the Choice cutout continuing to decline this early fall. Yet, the ribs are the only rising primal of the carcass. There may be another week or two of lower beef prices before the seasonal rebound occurs into November. Beef 50s prices have fallen sharply, but ground beef prices are still elevated. But, only limited downside price action from here is expected before fat trim seasonally rises in December. Description Live Cattle (Steer) Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Ground Beef 81/19 Ground Chuck 109 Export Rib (ch) 109 Export Rib (pr) 112a Ribeye (ch) 112a Ribeye (pr) 114a Chuck , Shlder Cld(ch) 116 Chuck (sel) 116 Chuck (ch) 116b Chuck Tender (ch) 120 Brisket (ch) 120a Brisket (ch) 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) 121e Cap & Wedge 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) 168 Inside Round (ch) 169 Top Round (ch) 171b Outside Round (ch) 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) 180 0x1 Strip (ch) 180 0x1 Strip (pr) 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) 184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) 189a Tender (pr, heavy) 193 Flank Steak (ch) 50% Trimmings 65% Trimmings 75% Trimmings 85% Trimmings 90% Trimmings 90% Imported Beef (frz) 95% Imported Beef (frz) Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Veal Top Round (cap off)

Market Trend Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Steady Increasing

Supplies Short Short Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Short Short Good Good Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Grains The U.S. corn harvest is underway with 15% in the bin as of Sunday which compares to 27% as the five-year average for the date. The corn crop remains historically immature and at levels only seen a few times in the last three decades. Thus, the 2019-20 corn supplies are still vulnerable, so prices may remain supported. Description

Market Trend

Supplies

Price vs. Last Year

Soybeans, bushel

Increasing

Good

Higher

Crude Soybean Oil, lb

Increasing

Good

Higher

Soybean Meal, ton Corn, bushel Crude Corn Oil, lb High Fructose Corn Syrup Distillers Grain, Dry Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD HRW Wheat, bushel DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Durum Wheat, bushel Pinto Beans, lb Black Beans, lb Rice, Long Grain, lb

Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady

Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Short Good Good Good

Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Lower Lower Higher Higher Lower Higher

Dairy Spot butter prices this week equaled their lowest level since February 2015. August U.S. butter imports were up 11.3% (yoy) and were the second best for any month. Butter exports were down 55% versus the prior year. Butter prices usually fade now through late-December. Cheese prices are up since last week and have shown resilience after seasonally peaking last month. Domestic August cheese exports were 5.9% less than the prior year and the smallest since November. History says cheese prices will decline from here, but this year’s seasonal drop may be muted if milk production gains don’t improve.

Description Cheese Barrels (CME) Cheese Blocks (CME) American Cheese Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Mozzarella Cheese Provolone Cheese Parmesan Cheese Butter (CME) Nonfat Dry Milk Whey, Dry Class 1 Base Class II Cream, heavy Class III Milk (CME) Class IV Milk (CME)

Market Trend Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Steady Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Steady Increasing Increasing Decreasing

Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Ample Good Good Good Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Same Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Higher

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Pork Weekly pork production continues to set new weekly records, with last week’s output coming in 1.3% over the week prior but a whopping 7.1% larger than a year ago. Amid the escalating production schedules, pork exports have been on the rise as well, with shipments throughout August up 22% from last year. Yet, pork prices remain slow to adjust to the rising exports and have been strengthening this early October. Price risk for the various pork items is to the upside, but bellies could experience the biggest volatility during the coming weeks. Description Live Hogs Sow Belly (bacon) Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Ham (20-23 lb) Ham (23-27 lb) Loin (bone in) Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Picnic, untrmd SS Picnic, smoker trm box 42% Trimmings 72% Trimmings

Market Trend Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing

Supplies Ample Ample Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Higher Lower Higher Higher Lower Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Lower

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Poultry Following sharply higher production schedules noted throughout mid-September, output has moderated, with chicken harvests for the week ending September 28th up 3.3% from the year prior. With bird weights continuing to seasonally increase, the six-week RTC production average is running 5.1% better than a year ago. As production increases, wholesale prices have been mixed, with breast meat and leg quarters easing but wings and tenders remain mostly firm. Despite breast meat prices falling to their lowest since at least 2000, further downside is expected moving forward. Similarly, wing prices should begin to ease from the back half of October into year’s end.

Description Whole Birds WOG-Nat Wings (jumbo cut) Wing Index (ARA) Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Tenderloin Index (ARA) Legs (whole) Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Thighs, Bone In Thighs, Boneless

Market Trend Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing

Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Lower Higher Higher Lower Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower

Description Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls

Market Trend Increasing Increasing

Supplies Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Higher Lower

Eggs Description Large Eggs (dozen) Medium Eggs (dozen) Liquid Whole Eggs Liquid Egg Whites Liquid Egg Yolks Egg Breaker Stock Central

Market Trend Steady Increasing Steady Steady Decreasing Increasing

Supplies Short Short Short Short Short Short

Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Seafood The salmon markets are near year ago levels despite imports in August falling below 2018. During the month, the U.S. brought in .8% less salmon than the previous year. However, imports of Atlantic salmon filets were higher by 9.4%. History suggests that the salmon markets could soften during the fall. The Atlantic salmon filet average price in December has been below October in three of the last four years. Description Shrimp (16/20 frz) Shrimp (61/70 frz) Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz)

Market Trend Increasing Decreasing Increasing

Supplies Good Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Higher Lower Higher

Snow Crab, frz

Decreasing

Good

Higher

Tilapia Filet, frz Cod Filet, frz Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz

Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing

Good Good Good Good Good

Lower Lower Lower Lower Higher

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market trends WEek ending October 18, 2019

Paper and Plastic Products Description

Market Trend Supplies WOOD PULP (PAPER) NBSK- Paper napkin Decreasing Good 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Increasing Good

Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower

PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags

Steady Steady Steady

Good Good Good

Lower Lower Lower

Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Beef and Veal Dairy Pork Chicken Fresh Fish and Seafood Fresh Fruits and Vegetables

Aug-19

July-19

June-19

Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing

Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing

Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing

Various Markets Nearby international sugar futures (#11) are lower since last week and are priced near multi-year lows. Conducive weather in Brazil is aiding sugar production there and recent lackluster ethanol output in that country are two bearish factors. That said, long term buying opportunities for sugar are present. Description Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb)

Market Trend Increasing Increasing

Supplies Good Good

Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher

Coffee lb ICE

Decreasing

Good

Lower

Sugar lb ICE Cocoa mt ICE Orange Juice lb ICE Honey (clover) lb

Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Steady

Ample Short Good Good

Higher Higher Lower Lower

14


Weekly Market Updates Issue No. 41

Date: October 10, 2019

pounds produced coming in 1% below the week prior and 1.4% less than last year. Slowing production schedules have done little to support beef prices, with the Choice cutout continuing to decline this early fall. Yet, the ribs are the only rising primal of the carcass. There may be another week or two of lower beef prices before the seasonal rebound occurs into November. Beef 50s prices have fallen sharply, but ground beef prices are still elevated. But, only limited downside price action from here is expected before fat trim seasonally rises in December. Price USDA, FOB per pound Price 1.078 1.444 1.760 1.875 7.414 13.334 8.718 14.230 2.527 2.794 2.344 2.951 5.838 4.114 2.485 2.173 4.704 8.854 5.387 9.274 2.855 4.125 3.044 4.650 3.436 9.027 10.702 19.565 4.692 .432 .941 1.678 1.922 2.191 2.358 2.565 8.750 13.875

Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Ground Beef 81/19 Ground Chuck 109e Export Rib (choice) 109e Export Rib (prime) 112a Ribeye (choice) 112a Ribeye (prime) 116 Chuck (select) 116 Chuck (choice) 116b Chuck Tdnr (choice) 120 Brisket (choice) 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) 167a Knckle, Trm. (ch.) 168 Inside Round (ch.) 174 Short Loin (ch. 0x1) 174 Short Loin (prime) 180 0x1 Strp (choice) 180 0x1 Strp (prime) 184 Top Butt, bnls (ch.) 184 Top Butt, bnls (prime) 184-3 Top Butt, bnls (choice) 185a Sirloin Flap (choice) 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (choice) 189a Tender (select) 189a Tender (choice) 189a Tender (prime) 193 Flank Steak (choice) 50% Trimmings 65% Trimmings 75% Trimmings 85% Trimmings 90% Trimmings 90% Imported Beef (frz.) 95% Imported Beef (frz.) Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Veal Top Rnd. (cp. off)

Price(lb.)

9.800

Last Week 1.055 1.430 1.778 1.844 7.134 13.424 8.308 14.165 2.558 2.804 2.359 2.904 6.224 4.154 2.483 2.265 4.773 9.847 5.592 11.275 2.922 4.125 2.921 4.672 3.230 8.784 10.152 19.842 4.668 .506 1.135 1.678 1.981 2.220 2.310 2.513 8.750 13.800

Difference +.023 +.014 -.018 +.031 +.280 -.090 +.410 +.065 -.031 -.010 -.015 +.047 -.386 -.040 +.002 -.092 -.069 -.993 -.205 -2.001 -.067 +.123 -.022 +.206 +.243 +.550 -.277 +.024 -.074 -.194 -.059 -.029 +.048 +.052 +.075

Price 18 1.112 1.585 1.523 1.682 7.182 7.949 8.471 8.521 2.666 2.768 2.145 2.448 5.729 4.165 2.241 1.983 4.418 5.246 4.951 5.979 2.505 3.003 2.635 4.855 2.754 9.500 10.196 11.609 4.900 .477 .726 1.563 1.472 1.982 1.880 2.043 8.725 14.000

112a Choice Beef Ribeye (heavy)

7.800 ribeye-19

5.800

ribeye-18

3.800 9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

Oil, Grains, Misc- The U.S. corn harvest is underway with 15% in the

bin as of Sunday which compares to 27% as the five-year average for the date. The corn crop remains historically immature and at levels only seen a few times in the last three decades. Thus, the 2019-20 corn supplies are still vulnerable, so prices may remain supported. Prices USDA, FOB Price 8.743 .296 312.900 3.711 .283 .133 139.542 .235 4.103 5.535 5.626 .240 .243 .252

Soybeans, bushel Crude Soybean Oil, lb. Soybean Meal, ton Corn, bushel Crude Corn Oil, lb. High Fructose Corn Syrup Distillers Grain, Dry Crude Palm Oil, lb. BMD HRW Wheat, bushel DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Durum Wheat, bushel Pinto Beans, lb. Black Beans, lb. Rice, Long Grain, lb. 2.611

2.357

Last Week 8.741 .287 309.000 3.678 .278 .132 138.125 .234 4.115 5.430 5.281 .242 .245 .252

Difference +.002 +.009 +3.900 +.033 +.005 +.001 +1.417 +.001 -.012 +.105 +.345 -.002 -.002 -

Price 18 8.066 .291 323.800 3.230 .263 .123 135.292 .240 5.195 5.835 4.572 .218 .280 .244

Soybean Oil

0.500

Price(lb.)

Volume No. 24

Beef- Beef production continues to ease, with last week’s 523.2 million

0.400

soybean oil-19 soybean oil-18

0.300 0.200 9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

Dairy- Spot butter prices this week equaled their lowest level since February 2015. August U.S. butter imports were up 11.3% (yoy) and were the second best for any month. Butter exports were down 55% versus the prior year. Butter prices usually fade now through late-December. Cheese prices are up since last week and have shown resilience after seasonally peaking last month. Domestic August cheese exports were 5.9% less than the prior year and the smallest since November. History says cheese prices will decline from here, but this year’s seasonal drop may be muted if milk production gains don’t improve. Class I Cream (hundredweight), from USDA. Cheese Barrels (CME) Cheese Blocks (CME) American Cheese Cheddar Cheese (40 lb.) Mozzarella Cheese Provolone Cheese Parmesan Cheese Butter (CME) Nonfat Dry Milk Whey, Dry Class 1 Base Class II Cream, heavy Class III Milk (CME) Class IV Milk (CME)

Price 1.878 2.015 1.835 2.085 2.163 2.075 3.895 2.103 1.155 .349 17.840 2.807 18.420 16.670

Last Week 1.733 1.990 1.708 2.060 2.138 2.075 3.870 2.128 1.131 .358 17.840 2.737 18.280 16.700

Difference +.145 +.025 +.127 +.025 +.025 +.025 -.025 +.024 -.009 +.070 +.140 -.030

Price 18 1.360 1.655 1.480 1.780 1.853 2.075 3.588 2.250 .963 .467 16.333 3.094 15.970 15.270


Weekly Market Updates Butter (CME)

Poultry- Following sharply higher production schedules noted throughout

2.000 butter-19 1.500

butter-18

1.000 9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

Pork- Weekly pork production continues to set new weekly records, with last week’s output coming in 1.3% over the week prior but a whopping 7.1% larger than a year ago. Amid the escalating production schedules, pork exports have been on the rise as well, with shipments throughout August up 22% from last year. Yet, pork prices remain slow to adjust to the rising exports and have been strengthening this early October. Price risk for the various pork items is to the upside, but bellies could experience the biggest volatility during the coming weeks. Prices USDA, FOB per pound. Price .373 1.423 1.252 .648 .563 .711 2.195 1.823 .847 .547 .755 .409 .501

Live Hogs Belly (bacon) Sparerib (4.25 lb. & down) Ham (20-23 lb.) Ham (23-27 lb.) Loin (bone-in) Bbybck Rib (1.75 lb. & up) Tenderloin (1.25 lb.) Boston Butt, untrmd. (4-8 lb.) Picnic, untrmd. SS Picnic, smoker trm. bx. 42% Trimmings 72% Trimmings

Last Week .361 1.218 1.255 .685 .631 .699 2.202 1.845 .864 .516 .729 .462 .554

Difference +.012 +.205 -.003 -.037 -.068 +.012 -.007 -.022 -.017 +.031 +.026 -.053 -.053

Price 18 .469 1.324 1.290 .621 .534 .800 2.081 1.935 .955 .524 .654 .383 .596

Pork Belly

mid-September, output has moderated, with chicken harvests for the week ending September 28th up 3.3% from the year prior. With bird weights continuing to seasonally increase, the six-week RTC production average is running 5.1% better than a year ago. As production increases, wholesale prices have been mixed, with breast meat and leg quarters easing but wings and tenders remain mostly firm. Despite breast meat prices falling to their lowest since at least 2000, further downside is expected moving forward. Similarly, wing prices should begin to ease from the back half of October into year’s end. Prices USDA, FOB per pound except when noted. Chicken Whole Birds WOG-Nat Wings (jumbo, cut) Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Tenderloin Index- (ARA) Legs (whole) Thighs, bone in Thighs, boneless Eggs and Others Large (dozen) Medium (dozen) Whole Eggs- Liquid Egg Whites- Liquid Egg Yolks- Liquid Whole Turkeys (8-16 lb.) Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls

Price .796 1.887 .840 .911 1.578 .661 .476 1.120

Last Week .785 1.891 .842 .937 1.583 .666 .588 1.130

Difference +.011 -.004 -.002 -.026 -.005 -.005 -.112 -.010

Price 18 .806 1.524 .945 1.020 1.424 .446 .433 1.168

.690 .542 .585 .580 .815 .955 2.080

.690 .535 .585 .580 .840 .940 2.070

+.007 -.025 +.015 +.010

1.143 .745 .795 .780 1.335 .815 2.110

Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast 1.500

Price(lb.)

Price(lb.)

2.500

1.000 breast-19

0.500

breast-18

0.000

1.500

9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

Price(lb.)

1.300 1.100

belly-19

0.900

belly-18

0.700 0.500 9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

The Kitchen Sink (Various Markets)- Nearby international sugar futures (#11) are lower since last week and are priced near multi-year lows. Conducive weather in Brazil is aiding sugar production there and recent lackluster ethanol output in that country are two bearish factors. That said, long term buying opportunities for sugar are present. Price bases noted below. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Tomato Paste- Industrial (lb.) Coffee, lb., ICE Sugar, lb., ICE Cocoa, mt., ICE Orange Juice, lb., ICE Honey (Clover), lb.

Price 12.737 .472 .957 .255 2448.000 1.023 1.833

Last Week 12.721 .471 1.014 .259 2453.000 .988 1.833

Difference +.016 +.001 -.057 -.004 -5.000 +.035 -

Price 18 12.650 .454 1.132 .253 2119.000 1.424 2.079

Seafood- The salmon markets are near year ago levels despite imports in August falling below 2018. During the month, the U.S. brought in .8% less salmon than the previous year. However, imports of Atlantic salmon filets were higher by 9.4%. History suggests that the salmon markets could soften during the fall. The Atlantic salmon filet average price in December has been below October in three of the last four years. Prices fresh product, unless noted, per pound from Fisheries Market News Salmon (wh. Atl., 10-12 lb.) Catfish Filets Trout (drn. 8-14 oz.) Shrimp (16/20), Frz. Shrimp (61/70), Frz. Shrimp, Tiger (26/30), Frz. Snow Crab, Frz Tilapia Filet, Frz Cod Filet, Frz. Tuna Yellowfin, Frsh Salmon Atlantic Filet, Frsh Pollock Filet, Alaska, Frz

Price n/a n/a n/a 4.470 2.400 3.373 7.700 1.662 3.370 4.600 5.104 1.311

Last Week n/a n/a n/a 4.468 2.455 3.315 8.458 1.617 3.598 4.250 5.204 1.286

Difference +.002 -.055 +.058 -.758 +.045 -.228 +.350 -.100 +.025

Price 18 n/a n/a n/a 4.000 2.412 2.692 7.290 1.677 3.622 4.879 5.124 1.143


Weekly Market Updates Produce- The lettuce markets are firming. The principal harvest area is

61/70 Shrimp 3.300

Price(lb.)

3.100 61/70 shrimp19

2.900 2.700

61/70 shrimp18

2.500 2.300 9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

Energy & Currency- Nearby RBOB gasoline futures firmed since last week. The EIA’s most recent weekly national average retail gasoline price was $2.581/gal., which was 9.7% less than a year ago. Gasoline prices typically experience weakness during the fall. Currency US dollar is worth Price Last Week 53.410 53.070 2.275 2.270 1.933 1.887 29.500 30.600 1.606 1.551 3.047 3.066 1.461 1.355 1.332 1.330 107.378 107.347 19.542 19.801 .911 .914 4.082 4.158 7.131 7.148

Crude Oil, barrel- nymex Natural Gas, mbtu- nymex Heating Oil, gal- nymex Electricity, mwht- nymex Gasoline, gal- nymex Diesel Fuel, gal- eia Ethanol, gal- usda Canadian $ Japanese Yen Mexican Peso Euro Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan

Difference +.340 +.005 +.046 -1.100 +.055 -.019 +.106 +.002 +.031 -.259 -.003 -.076 -.017

Price 18 74.210 3.311 2.410 37.750 2.055 3.385 1.237 1.297 112.869 19.135 .868 3.752 6.924

Paper/Plastic- Provided by; resin- www.plasticsnews.com, pulp- BLS index estimate. Wood Pulp/ Plastic Resin WP; NBSK (napkin, towel) WP; 42 lb. Linerboard (corr.) Res; PS-CHH (cup, cont.) Res; PP-HIGP (hvy utensil) Res; PE-LLD (cn liner, film)

Price 1028.411 766.518 1.04-1.08 .635-.655 .500-.530

Last Week Difference 1029.841 -1.43 761.961 +4.557 1.04-1.08 .635-.655 .500-.530 -

Price 18 1102.804 772.500 1.090 .890 .575

Price(cs.)

Iceberg Lettuce (24 count)

beginning to transition to Huron, California, and supplies are limited. U.S. lettuce shipments last week fell 6.1% from prior week and were 7.2% less than the same week last year. The chief lettuce area will shift again next month to the Imperial Valley region which could cause lettuce supplies to remain erratic. The five-year average move for the iceberg lettuce market during the next seven weeks is an increase of 31.2%. The downside price risk in the avocado markets from here is limited. Price bases noted below Limes (150 ct.) Lemons (95 ct.) Lemons (200 ct.) Honeydew (6 ct.) Cantaloupe (15 ct.) Blueberries (12 count) Strawberries (12 pnts.) Avocados (Hass 48 ct.) Bananas (40 lb.)- Term. Pineapple (7 ct.)- Term. Idaho Potato (60 ct., 50 lb.) Idaho Potato (70 ct., 50 lb.) Idaho Potato (70 ct.)-Term. Idaho Potato (90 ct., 50 lb.) Idaho Pot. # 2 (6 oz., 100 lb.) Processing Potato (cwt.) Yellow Onions (50 lb.) Yell Onions (50 lb.)-Term. Red Onions (25 lb.)- Term. White Onions (50 lb.)- Term. Tomatoes (large- case) Tomatoes (5x6-25 lb.)-Term Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Roma Tomatoes (large- case) Roma Tomatoes (xlarge-cs) Green Peppers (large- case) Red Peppers (large 15lb. cs.) Iceberg Lettuce (24 count) Iceberg Lettuce (24)-Term. Leaf Lettuce (24 count) Romaine Lettuce (24 cnt.) Mesculin Mix (3 lb.)-Term. Broccoli (14 ct.) Squash (1/2 bushel) Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Green Beans (bushel) Spinach, Flat 24's Mushrms (10 lb, lg.)-Term. Cucumbers (bushel) Pickles (200-300 ct.)- Term. Asparagus (small) Freight (Truck; CA-Cty Av.)

Price Last Week 42.000 42.000 29.965 29.965 22.965 23.965 9.475 5.000 4.500 4.500 19.500 19.500 13.500 14.500 32.250 30.250 15.513 15.513 11.240 10.813 11.750 12.000 11.500 12.000 21.458 23.323 8.000 8.000 14.500 13.500 10.818 10.818 5.375 5.250 13.307 13.369 11.366 11.156 19.979 19.575 15.950 14.950 13.834 13.344 12.950 12.014 12.743 11.706 13.954 12.766 9.325 9.938 10.950 10.950 25.713 12.690 24.333 16.292 12.100 8.288 21.675 13.515 6.917 6.917 13.063 12.800 10.600 7.388 7.800 6.300 13.225 9.250 18.025 17.050 17.458 17.458 12.930 12.940 26.875 29.667 9.250 8.500 6162.500 6162.500

Difference -1.000 +4.475 -1.000 +2.000 +.427 -.250 -.500 -1.865 +1.000 +.125 -.062 +.210 +.404 +1.000 +.490 +.936 +1.037 +1.188 -.613 +13.023 +8.041 +3.812 +8.160 +.263 +3.212 +1.500 +3.975 +.975 -.010 -2.792 +.750 -

Price 18 16.000 36.800 30.800 10.475 8.088 30.500 8.500 27.750 15.133 13.636 7.000 7.688 15.266 7.625 11.500 7.158 6.958 13.881 13.921 25.172 8.450 13.000 9.950 15.783 16.283 15.950 16.950 10.275 22.667 15.775 12.850 6.844 12.228 7.600 15.300 25.225 11.600 16.250 17.580 32.500 13.063 6777.778

Retail Prices- CPI, % compared to prior month from BLS.

30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000

iceberg-19 iceberg-18

9/12

9/21

9/30

10/9

Beef and Veal Dairy Pork Chicken Fresh Fish and Seafood Fresh Fruits and Veg.

Aug-19 -.563 +.520 -.901 -.090 +.229 -.248

July-19 +.546 +.089 +1.471 -.699 -.568 +.467

June-19 -.293 -.187 -.193 -.083 -.523 -1.672

May-19 +.882 +.152 +2.416 -.238 +.793 -.741

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