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by Perry Node 2018.1 quarterly data as of, or for the two quarters ended, March 31, 2018 Node is Greater Boston’s definitive resource for transit-accessible real estate discussion & analysis.

RAIL CRAZE EXPANDS

HISTORIC MF TREND

INHERENT URBAN ADVANTAGE

GLX, NSRL, NEW CARS!

More than 80 percent of both multifamily and office development from 2014 through 2020 will have been within one mile of rail transit, including both completed and under construction properties.

An average of more than 4,000 units of housing will have been developed within a five-minute walk of transit per year from 2014 through 2019, the most robust regional transit-accessible housing trend observed since 1920.

Office and lab properties closest to the urban core generate the highest GOscores (see pages 2-4), reflecting access to labor pools from multiple transit corridors throughout the region.

A resounding increased attention toward auto-alternative transit appears clear from political and business leaders; see page 7.

A DRIVER FOR THE DOWNTOWN XING INFLUX? Proximate to multiple high capacity rail lines, Downtown Crossing office properties dominate the highest GOscores, potentially helping explain the recent influx of carfree technology workers.

published on June 6, 2018 Node is Greater Boston’s primary resource for commercial office, laboratory and multifamily analysis in the context of an increasingly individual auto-independent metro area, and country. Node provides building investors and landlords, employers, lawmakers, politicians and other interested parties information to help understand the nature of the transformation of the organization of human activity presently underway in the United States.

INSIDE … Headhouse

GOsaic

GOscores

CRE+Transit

MF+Transit

Projects

With this issue of Node we introduce GOsaic, Greater Boston’s first fully integrated data mosaic to help understand the relationship of the region’s real estate to transportation nodes and settlement trends. GOsaic will become increasingly robust as we help decision makers understand transit orientation ...

Brendan Carroll <> Director of Intelligence


by Perry A reorganization of the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s built environment around non-auto-dependent transit access points significantly accelerated since mid-2017 as a majority of both multifamily and office development is situated within walkable distances of rail transit. More than 80 percent of both multifamily and office development from 2014 through 2020 will have been within a one-mile walking range of MBTA rapid transit or commuter rail service, including both completed and under construction facilities. While a re-urbanization of American life is presently underway, numerous factors are likely combining to accelerate and enhance the effect locally. An increasing share of the key employee pool are younger workers with contemporary training in media and technology, people who would choose to defer an expensive car purchase if allowed a legitimate choice between car-dependent and car-free living orientations. Intensifying regular congestion-related traffic delays and carsharing and rental services have minimized the overall appeal of having a car, and political figures have notably adjusted to a society supportive of true public transit investment. For those inclined toward a car-free life, the 33,320 units of housing delivered from 2013 through 2020 within a close five-minute walk of a rail station compares with just 171 delivered in an eight-year period from 1991 through 1998. Those units now rely on an enhanced transit experience to enjoy and enable the scalability of the now growing region.

DATA IS BEAUTIFUL!

RASTER

Raster data allows compartmentalization of geographies, helpful in understanding concentrations of certain elements, and instances where there is a notable surplus or lack of one element in the context of another. Raster data can also help identify trends in non-geostatistical datasets. 0.4 4 01 2 8 3 3 2

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0

0.01 1 4 5 8 4 6 3

0

0.02 1 5 3 8 4 6 2

0

0.08 8 07 9 8 5 9

0.01 8 9 1 4 1 8 6

0

0.008 1 5 5 2 7 6

0

0

0.1 2 7 3 6 9 2 1 9

0.04 4 9 5 9 1 2 8

0

0

0

0

0.02 6 7 5 7 8 4 2

0

0

0.01 7 1 7 5 5 7 3

0.06 9 5 7 4 8 2 1

0

0

0.03 5 005 8 3 4

0.02 5 9 3 7 9 3 4

0

0

0

0

0.02 7 9 4 7 07 9

0

0.1 9 6 5 6 3 5 7 4

0.1 2 5 6 8 1 1 9 9

0.05 1 3 4 1 8 9

0

0

0.1 09 03 2 1 09

0

0

0.03 5 9 9 4 5 2

0

0.06 5 9 7 9 3 8 1

0.1 5 7 09 5 5 2 7

0.1 6 9 8 7 7 4 08

0.01 7 07 7 2 6 8

0

0

0.2 3 6 6 4 1 2 2 1

0.2 4 2 5 06 8 1 2

0

0

0

0.02 2 6 6 7 8 2 9

0

0.01 3 6 4 6 7 02

0

0

0

0

0.04 05 8 2 7 2 6

0

0

0.2 1 9 2 4 3 9 8 6

0.1 9 1 3 3 7 4 5 8

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.1 5 5 04 2 9 1 8

0

0.02 7 8 8 2 6 6

0

0

0.008 2 5 1 05 8

0

0

0.2 04 1 5 2 2 4 9

0

0

0.01 6 9 5 6 3 3 7

0

0

0

0.2 5 4 3 2 5 2 6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.3 5 8 6 5 7 7 1 8

0

0

0

0

0

0.04 9 9 3 2 8 8 6

0

0

0

0

0

0.02 04 5 1 3 4

0

0

0.1 1 3 8 2 5 5 03

0

0

0

0.1 1 5 7 9 4 8 2

0

0

0

0

0.02 1 01 05 05

0

0

0.04 1 7 7 5 4 5 7

0

0

0

0

0.02 2 4 1 8 7 3 2

0

0

0.1 3 6 1 09 7

0

0.2 5 8 4 6 1 5 3 8

0

0

0

81% of total regional MF construction 2014 to 2020: 61,507 units, will have been within one mile of rail transit

0.1 2 3 5 8 5 7 2 7

0

0.7 5

0.04 9 3 7 5 5 4 5

0

0.1 1 4 8 8 2 5 07

0

0.07 1 3 8 4 6 1 5

0

0.007 7 3 004 3

0.004 4 8 3 7 4 6

0

0.01 7 5 2 1 5 4 9

0.2 9 6 5 9 7 2 5 7

0

0.3 2 2 2 1 3 7 9 8

0

0

0

0.1 4 9 5 3 2 7 1

0

0

0

0.1 01 5 8 5 4 3 7

0.3 2 6 9 2 3 07 7

0.1 5 3 8 4 6 1 5 4

0.008 8 8 4 5 01

0.002 9 6 1 9 1 8

0

0

0

0

0.01 1 8 6 9 4 3 6

0

0.1 3 6 1 6 4 8 9 7

0

0.1 2 8 8 8 5 5 1 9

0.1 1 2 05 3 4 9 9

0

0

0

0

0

0.005 3 5 5 5 8 6

0.1 7 5 08 7 5 4 4

0.6 7 3 07 6 9 2 3

0.09 2 4 9 4 3 1 4

0

0.1 3 5 8 2 8 1 3 6

0.1 4 4 8 5 9 8 1 3

0.4 5 7 8 4 6 1 5 4

0

0.01 8 08 6 7 6

distance from nearest transit station 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.008 6 01 5 5 4

1900 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 miles

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5 miles


by Perry

Introducing GOsaic … We are excited to announce GOsaic, an integrated mosaic of databases designed to help the audience of node better understand Greater Boston real estate in the context of transit adequacy. GOsaic is a next-generation of node’s initial, more simple binary transit-accessibility approach. GOsaic is upgradable, with the current 1.0 version to be followed by future releases incorporating further data layers. GOsaic is integrated throughout node, and will be extended further throughout the Perry Research platform. Elements made possible through node are noted with the short-form GOsaic logo.

GOsaic 1.0 characteristics The initial release of GOsaic fundamentally changes the way transit-accessibility is characterized on a property-level basis. Previously, transit-accessibility was analyzed on a binary basis, whereby properties within a ten-minute walking radius of a property were considered accessible, outside of this was considered not. Today, we use a graduated score where accessibility scores decrease to a 20-minute walking range. The other key element tracks the catchment statistics of the area walkably accessible by a direct ride from those stations.

Future GOsaic 0.5 mile binary boundary

GOsaic 1.0 will be followed in future periods by additional data feeds incorporating a growing number of auto alternative geographical mobility modes, along with additional tools to help evaluate the true effectiveness of these modes.

Future Modes

BRT

Bus

Bike

graduated one mile radius reflects varying perceptions of walkability

Future Line Characteristics

Line Speed

Frequency

% Capacity score is awarded based on distance to nearest access point to given transit line, up to a one mile walk

Future Station Characteristics

Safety

Approach

Quality

GOscore

GOscores …

Transit-accessible properties are given a score from 0.00 to 1.00 based on their location, with 1.00 the most desirable possible score. Locations score reflect distances to the closest access points of qualifying lines of transit, and characteristics of features proximate to points along those lines relative to the total universe of transit proximate features in the Greater Boston market. Scores also reflect distances from locations to those transit access points.

3

GOsaic

A 1.00 would theoretically reflect a location directly adjacent to an access point for all forms of Greater Boston rail transit, a place which does not exist. Access for office properties reflects relation to labor pools, while multi family reflects relation to office inventory. The highest demonstrated GOscore in Greater Boston in 0.70, on Winter Street in the vicinity of Downtown Crossing.


by Perry

GOscore & Minimum Distance While GOscore is the most complete characterization of a location’s transit-relevance, GOsaic also tracks distances from locations to the nearest qualifying transit station. This provides what may be a more familiar representation of transit accessibility.

GOscores reflect a significant advantage for locations near the convergence of the region’s high capacity rail systems, where properties have a direct connection to much of the region’s commuting workforce.

Minimum distance tracking shows properties that are close to at least one qualifying transit station; these locations are convenient for users along that line but require a transfer to reach destinations along other lines.

Average Line Speed Future GOsaic releases will account for additional variables, such as average line speed of given transit mode.

Catchment GOsaic leverages the power of geostatistics to help understand what you can reach by transit. Here’s the Green Line E:

Area (Square Miles) population $ income (per capita) pop growth daytime population bachelors' degrees graduate degrees life sciences workers retail sales ($billions)

4

Data Beautiful

5.09 145,158 $54,437 1.03% 452,593 65,878 35,684 4,108 $6.31


by Perry

CRE

Greater Boston has 2.8 million sf of commercial real estate construction underway within a ten-minute walk of transit, accounting for 56% of all current construction market-wide. Here is a summary of select current and recent transit-accessible commercial construction:

building

expected/built

rba (sf)

% leased

GOsaic score

closest t (miles)

250 North St, Cambridge

2019

450,000

85%

0.28

0.21

145 Broadway, Cambridge

2019

486,048

100%

0.14

0.23

399 Binney St, Cambridge

2019

165,375

83%

0.11

0.44

40 Water St, Boston

2018

365,000

100%

0.69

0.08

80 Causeway St, Boston

2018

175,000

100%

0.56

0.02

121 Seaport Blvd, Boston

2018

415,000

100%

0.23

0.54

140 Northern Ave, Boston

2018

375,000

100%

0.17

0.65

100 Binney St, Cambridge

2018

431,500

100%

0.16

0.35

35 Cambridgepark Dr, Cambridge

2018

223,668

0%

0.14

0.12

40 Guest St, Brighton

2018

160,035

100%

0.05

0.34

48 Dunham Rd, Beverly

2018

145,000

0%

0.01

0.80

50-60 Binney St, Cambridge

2018

505,000

100%

0.17

0.40

80 Guest St, Boston

2017

270,000

81%

0.06

0.26

888 Boylston, Boston

2016

425,000

92%

0.41

0.19

100 Northern Ave, Boston

2016

395,202

84%

0.21

0.60

75-125 Binney St, Cambridge

2016

390,000

100%

0.16

0.37

300 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge

2016

250,000

100%

0.13

0.31

22 Windsor St, Cambridge

2016

180,000

100%

0.11

0.40

610 Main St, Cambridge

2016

272,801

100%

0.10

0.41

123 Foley St, Somerville

2016

850,000

100%

0.08

0.09

170 Everett Ave, Chelsea

2016

250,000

100%

0.05

0.27

1265 Main St, Waltham

2016

120,000

100%

0.00

0.92

under construction

compeleted since 2016

New Product Recent/Current

Urban Multifamily built in 2016 or since Under construction multifamily Office built in 2016 or since Under construction office bubble size denotes asset size

5

CRE+Transit


by Perry

MF

Greater Boston has 11,278 units of multifamily construction underway within a ten-minute walk of transit, or 56% of all such construction market-wide. By this measure, this is the largest transit accessible multifamily boom since before the World Wars. Hereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a summary of current and recently completed large multifamily projects:

building

expected/built

# of units

# of floors

GOsaic score

closest t (miles)

Harrison Albany Block, 123 E Dedham St, Boston

2020

345 Harrison, 345 Harrison Ave, Boston

2018

650

11

0.16

0.68

584

14

0.41

Clippership Wharf, 25-65 Lewis St, Boston

0.24

2018

478

6

0.08

0.17

South Bay Town Center, 101 Allstate Rd, Dorchester

2018

475

6

0.13

0.26

290-292 Main St, Cambridge

2019

450

28

0.19

0.04

The Hub on Causeway West, 80 Causeway St, Boston

2020

440

38

0.56

0.06

399 Congress St, Boston

2020

414

22

0.20

0.56

Elevation Apartments Phase II, 7 Crown Dr, Quincy

2018

404

0.05

0.34

Whittier Choice, 1 Whittier St, Boston

2019

387

15

0.20

0.22

Jefferson at Malden Center, 200 Pleasant St, Malden

2018

320

6

0.11

0.09

under construction

Fenway Center - Phase I, Brookline Ave, Boston

2019

312

13

0.25

0.03

Mass+Main, 425 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge

2018

308

19

0.13

0.17

Gables Seaport, 501 Congress St, Boston

2019

307

23

0.12

0.72

500 Ocean Ave, Revere

2019

305

25

0.04

0.08

Parcel K, 315 Northern Ave, Boston

2019

304

12

0.00

0.99

Avalon North Station, 1 Nashua St, Boston

2017

503

38

0.52

0.12

VIA Seaport Residences, 5 Fan Pier Blvd, Boston

2017

478

20

0.32

0.47

The Benjamin, 25-29 Northern Ave, Boston

2017

354

22

0.31

0.47

compeleted since 2016

Pierce Boston, 200 Brookline Ave, Boston

2018

349

30

0.26

0.18

Watermark Seaport, 85 Seaport Blvd, Boston

2016

346

20

0.29

0.47

RE150, 150 Rivers Edge Dr, Medford

2016

342

5

0.03

0.65

One Canal, 54 Canal St, Boston

2016

310

12

0.58

0.08

New Product Recent/Current

Suburban Multifamily built in 2016 or since Under construction multifamily Office built in 2016 or since Under construction office bubble size denotes asset size

5

MF+Transit


by Perry

Web-enabled system will enable and support an integrated and cashless payment system across MBTA and other participating transit systems

5

The connection of the region's north and south rail systems is being reviewed; this

NSRL

link is viewed by many as critical for regional growth

3

24 new green line cars are in the process of being introduced to the system to

Green Line Cars

ultimately support operations on the Green Line Extension

5

A concept to replace the Green Line's entire fleet with higher-capacity and partially

Green Reinvention

automated vehicles similar to those in certain other USA cities

1

An extension of the Blue Line to Charles MGH station, thereby connecting the only

Red-Blue Connector

unconnected two of the MBTA's heavy or light rail lines

1

An extension of the Green Line from its long-time terminus at Lechmere to Medford,

GLX

with a shorter spur extending to Somerville's Union Square

Positive Train Control Quincy Center T Pt 2

4

A safety mechanism for the entire commuter rail system which prevents a number of train collisions caused by human error

4

Demolition of the above-grade elements of Quincy Center T station and replaced by a mixed-use facility

4

Replacement of the Red Line fleet, which currently spans two generations, by one fleet

Red Line Cars

with automated controls allowing shorter headways

5

Extenion of the commuter rail to Fall River and New Bedford, concern is escalating

South Coast Rail

over the use of a low capacity routing to Boston

Commuter Rail Electrification

2

Electrification of the all-diesel MBTA fleet; electrification allows for more frequent service and is more cost efficient at higher ridership levels

2

Introduction of reliable high speed wifi throughout the commuter rail system; early

CR WiFi Towers

proposals have paused over the system's esthetic elements

Silver Line in Chelsea

3

The Silver Line BRT system's SL3 route opened to Chelsea, offering riders a mostly grade-seperated transit connection

5

The replacement of the currently 39-year old fleet of the Orange Line with the first

Orange Line Cars

Springfield-built CRRC rail cars

4

The complete demolition and replacement of the current Wollaston Station,

Wollaston Redo

necessitating a 12-month closure of the stop

Boston Landing Expansion

4

An increase in frequency of service to Boston Landing from 34 to 38 trains per day, reflecting heavy observed ridership at the stop

4

An evaluation of a potential fixed transit system at Logan International Airport to

Logan Connector

connect the terminals and the Airport MBTA station

2

Kraft Group-funded temporary service to Foxboro Station, adjacent to Gillette Stadium

Foxborough Service

and to the group's multi-use development

3

A partially Boston University and Harvard University funded rail station to complement

West Station

a large, adjacent expansion of Harvard

Longfellow Bikelanes

2

An idea to widen the Cambridge-bound bike lanes on the newly re-opened Longfellow Bridge; the lane currently doesn't support passing bikers

2

A privately funded concept to connect a higher density corrdidor from South Station to

Seaport Gondola

the East Seaport by a Cable-Propelled Transit system

1

The restoration of a former rail right-of-way to provide shuttle-type rail service

Track 61

between the Seaport and Back Bay Station

Grand Junction Railroad

1

A concept to provide service connecting North Station, Kendall and Allston with a former freight line currently used for MBTA equipment transfer

1

An extension of the MBTA Blue Line from its terminus in Revere to Lynn; the Lynn

Blue Line to Lynn

commuter station is designed to accommodate the Blue Line

Fairmont Rapid Transit

1

A concept to provide rapid transit-style service along the Fairmont Line; many current MBTA rapid transit lines were origingally mainline services

concept

evaluating

2

approved

construction

operational

Profiled issues reflect an effort on the part of Perry Brokerage Associates to present a balanced view of certain of the primary transit issues affecting the Greater Boston market. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Momentumâ&#x20AC;? is a reflects a opinion of the extent to which influencer rhetoric appears to support the given initiative.

7

Projects

Other

Bike

Ferry

Intercity

Bus

Commuter Rail - South

Blue

Commuter Rail - North

Electronic Fare Collection

RedM

Description

Orange

RedB

RedA

GreenE

GreenD

Project

GreenC

A selection of key transit issues gripping our region

GreenB

Momentum

UPDATES


100% 90% 80% 70%

21.3 million sf

50%

of Greater Boston office and laboratory net leasing since 2012 economic resurgence

40%

within 0.5 miles of rail transit

30%

within 1.5 miles of rail transit

60%

61% 86%

20% 10% 0% 0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2 labels as of q3

spectrum family

@BOSqFt Perry Brokerage strives for complete accuracy in all aspects of its information and analysis, though no guarantee to that effect is made. Sources include Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Esri, Federal Reserve Bank, Google Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Perry Brokerage Associates.

blue <> macro level office | quarterly steel <> macro level industrial | quarterly green <> macro level laboratory | quarterly slate <> submarket level office series | quarterly node <> transit-accessible office & lab | twice-yearly white <> special interest | twice-yearly or so Subscribe to Spectrum by texting “pbaresearch” to 228-28

Brendan Carroll <> Director of Intelligence <> bcarroll@perrybrokerage.com © 2018 Perry Brokerage Associates. All Rights Reserved.

Node181  

Node is Greater Boston's primary resource for transit oriented development research

Node181  

Node is Greater Boston's primary resource for transit oriented development research

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