The 2020 Census: What's at Stake for the State of Alabama

The 2020 Census What’s at 6take for the State of Alabama

The 2020 Census: What’s At Stake for the State of Alabama October 2019 Kenesha Reynolds, Ph.D. Cooperative Extension, University of New Hampshire Affiliated Researcher, Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama Published by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama ©2019

The 2020 Census: What’s At Stake for the State of Alabama

Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 2 What is the Census? .......................................................................................... 4 History of the Decennial Census ................................................................ 4 Why Does the Census Matter?....................................................................... 5 Congressional Apportionment ................................................................... 5 Federal Funding ............................................................................................... 6 Administering the Census................................................................................ 8 Challenges Facing the 2020 Census ......................................................... 10 How Does Alabama Compare? ...................................................................... 11 What Options Do We Have? ........................................................................ 14 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 22

1

Executive Summary Alabama is at risk of losing federal funding, a congressional seat, and an Electoral College vote. These outcomes are based on projected results of the 2020 Census.

The 22nd decennial census, mandated by the U.S. Constitution, begins on April 1, 2020. The census counts every person living in the United States. Business, industry, nonprofits, researchers, and governments use this information to understand and serve the public. The Constitution requires the census. Federal law requires all people living in the U.S. to respond.

The census is always a challenging project, but there are additional complications in 2020.

•

The 2020 Census will be the first census administered primarily online.

•

Proposals to add a citizenship question have created confusion in many communities.

•

Trust of government is at near historic lows.1

•

The Census Bureau has reported to be behind in hiring field staff.2

Regardless, the census results will have a profound impact on every community in America. While ultimately the responsibility of the federal government, the census is important to the states, and most invest substantial resources to promote the census.

As of this writing, Alabama has created the Alabama Counts! taskforce to promote the census and has committed $1.24 million, or $0.25 per capita, to the effort, compared to an average of $1.37 across the country, based on data reported by the National Council of State Legislators.3 The stated goal of Alabama Counts! is to increase Alabama’s initial participation rate beyond the 72 percent reported in 2010. This figure represents the number of

1

Pew Research Center. (April 11, 2019). “Public Trust in Government: 1958-2019.” Pew Research Center. https://www.people-press.org/2019/04/11/public-trust-in-government1958-2019/ 2

Macagnone, Michael. (September 13, 2019). “Census Bureau Falling Further Behind in Hiring Outreach Staff” Roll Call. https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/census-falling-behindhiring-outreach-staff 3

National Council of State Legislators. “2020 Census Resources and Legislation.” http://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/2020-census-resources-and-legislation.aspx

2

households that returned a census form by mail. Those who did return a form by mail received a visit from a census worker.

While increasing Alabama’s initial participation rate is a worthy goal, it is worth remembering that the national initial participation rate in 2010 was only 74 percent.

A significant increase in the initial participation rate will be difficult and will require concerted effort from local officials in Alabama’s 67 counties and the 460 towns and cities recognized by the Census Bureau.

Even if the efforts of Alabama Counts! are exceedingly successful, Alabama may well lose a congressional seat. Census workers simply cannot count people who are not here. And Alabama is simply not growing as fast as other states.

3

What is the Census?

The U.S. Constitution requires a complete count of the U.S. population every 10 years.

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the decennial census, more commonly known as “the census.”4 The census collects information on population, households, and housing characteristics. The data are anonymous but do provide a wealth of demographic data about the country, including states, counties, metros, and cities, broken down by gender, race, ethnicity, age and other categories. These data are invaluable to researchers, businesses, nonprofits, and state and local governments.

Most importantly, the federal government uses the data to apportion the country’s 435 House districts among the states and to ensure the fair and efficient delivery of government services—and government funding.

History of the Decennial Census In 1790, Congress assigned responsibility for the census to marshals in each of the U.S. judicial districts. Census questions were limited to the names of the heads of families and the number of persons in each household, with specific descriptions of free white males by age, free white females, all other free persons, and slaves. By 1800, the census asked about age ranges. By 1880, the President appointed a superintendent and supervisors, subject to Senate confirmation, to conduct the census. During this time and the decades following, federal law required census workers to visit each household. The census also expanded to include an array of other questions about the population and the economy. As a result, the census evolved from a seasonal, short-term project to a near continuous operation.

In 1902, Congress created the U.S. Census Bureau and placed it in the Department of the Interior before moving it to the Department of Labor and Commerce in 1903, which was a combined cabinet agency until 1913. By the twentieth century, visits to every household were replaced with mailed questionnaires. Households that did not respond to the questionnaire received a household visit. This remained the process through the 2010 census.

4

https://www.census.gov/en.html

4

Between 1970 and 2000, the Census Bureau used two questionnaires. Most households received a short form asking a minimum number of questions, and a sample of households received a long-form questionnaire with additional questions about demographics, education, employment, income, and more. The Census Bureau used this expanded data to provide a more detailed picture of the nation’s population.5

In 2005, the Census Bureau replaced the long form with a more detailed monthly survey to provide communities, businesses, and the public with more detailed information more frequently. These data are released annually through the American Community Survey (ACS).6 Thus, in 2010, there was a single survey with 10 questions for each household.7

Why Does the Census Matter?

Census counts establish representation in the House of Representatives, influence the allocation of hundreds of billions in federal funding, influence local and state government budgets, and inform business decisions around expansion and contractions.8 There is a major incentive to get the count right.

Congressional Apportionment Over the decades, the number of representatives and methods of apportionment have changed. However, in 1941 Congress enacted the “equal proportions” method for apportionment. The Apportionment Act of 1941 fixed the size of the House at 435, clarified the apportionment method, and mandated reapportionment every 10 years.9 5

For more about the history of the census and the Census Bureau see https://www.census.gov/history/www/census_then_now/ 6

U.S. Census Bureau. (Revised September 5, 2017). Decennial Census of Population and Housing. Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS). https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/census-acs.html.

7

U.S. Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/questionnaires/ 8 https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/ 9

Congressional Research Service (2013). The U.S. House of Representatives Apportionment Formula in Theory and Practice.

5

The apportionment methodology is complicated and the subject of ongoing debate.10 A state’s apportionment is based on its population relative to all other states’ populations. So, states with slow growth are prone to lose seats to rapidly growing states.

Any change in apportionment requires the affected state(s) to redraw district lines.

For growing states, this means creating additional districts, thereby expanding those states’ influence in the House. By necessity, this expansion comes at the expense of other states, which must eliminate a district. Eliminating a district will reduce the state’s influence in the House, complicate the remaining representatives’ work of constituent services, and create a political firestorm in the state legislature.

Federal Funding According to a report by The George Washington Institute of Public Policy, 16 large federal programs use census data to help allocate almost $590 billion in federal dollars to states and local communities. In 2015, Alabama received $7.6 billion from these programs, which equates to $1,567 per capita.11

It is important to note that federal funding is not directly correlated to population count in most cases. The gain or loss of one person does not correspond with a change in funding. Instead,

It is important to note that federal funding is not directly correlated to population count in most cases.

census data are used to classify states, metros, counties, and cities as eligible or ineligible for certain pools of money, to set poverty rates, and other measures. And these have real-world impact.

https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20130802_R41357_f2c1769587f502e8dde9260ca31377 b7b23094d6.pdf.

10

Crocker, Royce. 2015. Appointing Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives Using the 2013 Estimated Citizen Population (CRS Report No. R4136). Retrieved from Congressional Research Service website https://crsreports.congress.gov 11

The Georgia Washington Institute of Public Policy. 2017. Counting for Dollars 2020. https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-2020-initial-analysis

6

Census data is primarily used in four ways:

1.

To establish funding eligibility—for example, population data classifies an area as urban or rural, and this designation qualifies or disqualifies the area for certain grants, loans, or other programs.

2. To establish funding formulas—for example, federal funds to cities are allocated based on a formula that includes population, poverty, growth, and other data.

3. To provide selection/scoring criteria—for example, evaluation of some federal projects factor population, poverty, employment, or related data.

4. To set interest rates—for example, some federal loan programs use median household income to inform rates on projects.12

While federal funding does not directly correlate with population, the above uses are critical. As noted by the The George Washington study, “We can say that census accuracy is of utmost importance to the fair, prudent, geographic distribution of federal funding.”13

Private Uses The federal and state governments are not the only consumers of census data.

Businesses, cities, nonprofits, and schools also rely on the data.

Census data provides businesses with information about population, migration, spending, education, and more. Census data is a critical component in deciding where to open new locations, place new factories, and build new houses. Local governments use census data to plan and manage growth and to attract and retain

12The

Georgia Washington Institute of Public Policy. Fifty-Five Large Census-guided Federal Spending Programs, https://gwipp.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2181/f/downloads/Counting%20Dollars%20Brief% 20%235%20May%202019.pdf 13

Ibid.

7

business. Nonprofits and community organizations rely on the data to design and deploy arts and culture and human services programs. Schools use the data to decide where to close schools or build new ones. Researchers uses the data to better understand large-scale social trends.

Administering the Census Planning for the 2020 census began early this decade. Currently, bureau employees are working to collect and map every residence in the United States. Beginning April 1, 2020, each mapped household will receive a mailed invitation to participate in the census with instructions for completing the census online or by phone.

For the first time since the inception of the census, the traditional paper method will

The goal is to remove barriers to participation, enabling people to respond anytime and anywhere.

no longer be the primary collection method. In 2020, respondents will be able to respond to the census online using computers, smart phones and other devices, by telephone, or through a traditional paper form. The goal is to remove barriers to participation, enabling people to respond anytime and anywhere.

Households that do not respond to the census online will receive additional follow-up information and ultimately a visit from a census worker to ensure all households respond and are counted.14

Census Questions The Census Bureau submitted a list of questions to Congress in 2018. Based on that submission, the Bureau plans to ask questions along the following lines:

•

The total number of people living or staying in the home on April 1, 2020.

•

Whether the home is owned or rented.

14

U.S. Census Bureau. How the 2020 Census will invite everyone to respond. https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2019/comm/2020-everyone.html

8

•

The sex of each person.

•

The age of each person.

•

The race of each person.

•

Whether people in the home are of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin.

•

The relationship of people in the home.15

Data Usage Per Title 13 of the U.S. Code, the Census Bureau cannot disclose or publish any private information that identifies any individual or business, including names, addresses, Social Security numbers, or telephone numbers. Moreover, the Bureau is only permitted to produce statistical reports. Personal information cannot be used against respondents by any government agency or court. Census Bureau employees are sworn to protect confidentiality and are legally required to maintain confidentiality for life. Violations are punishable by up a five-year prison sentence, a fine of up to $250,000, or both.16

Census Promotion The census is only valid if people respond—and public response has been a concern for decades. Research conducted after the 1950 and 1960 censuses found resistance to census completion. These findings prompted the government to invest in promotional campaigns to promote awareness of the importance of the census and to attempt to regain the public trust. The first extensive public service advertising campaign was in 1980. The Bureau spent $67 million in 1990, $167 million in 2000, and $133 million in 2010. In recent decades, media campaigns have relied on more media outlets and utilized more languages—28 in 2010.

15

U.S. Census Bureau. Questions Asked. https://2020census.gov/en/about-questions.html

16

U.S. Census Bureau, Title 13 U.S. Code. https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/privacy_confidentiality/title_13_us_code.ht ml

9

The 2020 plan is budgeted for $500 million. A key component of the campaign is paid media, as well as a website (https://2020census.gov) separate from the primary Bureau website and a significant social media campaign.17 Unlike previous years, digital advertising will present the opportunity to drive direct response. People can move directly from social media and electronic promotion to the census form itself.

Challenges Facing the 2020 Census While administrators hope the shift to online submission will generate cost savings,18 the change also introduces new complications.

The public is increasingly concerned about online privacy, information security, and data use, a fact recognized by the Census Bureau itself.19

The Trump Administration’s desire to include a citizenship question, last asked in 1950, and the resulting political debates and legal challenges have created confusion and anxiety among immigrant communities.

17

U.S. Census Bureau. 2019. Business Opportunities: 2020 Census Paid Media Campaign. https://census.gov/about/business-opportunities/opportunities/2020-opps/2020-censuspaid-media.html 18 U.S. Census Bureau. 2018. 2020 Census Operational Plan: A New Design for the 21 st Century.

Version 4.0. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/programmanagement/planning-docs/2020-oper-plan4.pdf 19

Ibid.

10

How Does Alabama Compare?

Population Growth Numerous projections,20 including those conducted by PARCA, indicate the loss of one seat in the U.S. Congress is highly possible. Some have projected the possible loss of two seats. While this is not impossible, it seems unlikely at this time.

Why could Alabama lose a seat?

Congressional districts are allocated not strictly on a state’s population, but on the state’s population relative to the other states’ population. Thus, slow growth, coupled with high growth in other states, makes Alabama particularly vulnerable. And we are already close to the margins.

Alabama is barely growing. Since 2010, the state’s population has increased by approximately 2.3%, from 4.78 million to 4.88 million. Mississippi has seen a 0.6% growth rate.

Otherwise, every other southeastern state has outpaced Alabama with growth rates ranging from 2.8% in Louisiana to 13.3% in Florida. Of particular interest is South Carolina. In 2010, Alabama and South Carolina were essentially equal in population. The eight years since, South Carolina

Since 2010, the state’s population has increased by approximately 2.3%, from 4.78 million to 4.88 million.

grew by 9.9% and is now home to 200,000 more people than Alabama. See Figure 1.

Nationally, 34 states grew faster than Alabama between 2010 and 2018, led by Utah, Texas, Florida, Colorado, and North Dakota, which have grown more than 13 percent.

Fifteen states have growth rates lower than Alabama.

20

https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/NR_Appor18.pdf; https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=3a170fda1cbd4a5d87ed9d197778 80c7

11

Had House districts been allocated based on the 2018 population estimates released by the Census in December 2018, Alabama would have kept its seven seats, but only by about 20,000 people—a margin of 0.4 of 1 percent.

Based on long-term growth trends of all 50 states, in 2020 Alabama could be approximately 15,000 people short of keeping its seventh Congressional seat. Losing a seat means:

•

The loss of a voice for Alabama in the House

•

One less voice advocating for Alabama in Washington

•

The potential loss of seniority

•

A seat on a powerful House committee

•

Strained constituent services as six offices seek to serve the state’s 4.8 million residents

•

The loss of an electoral college vote, rendering the state even less important in presidential elections

12

Figure 1. State Population Growth 2010 to 2018

13

What Options Do We Have?

Significant growth in the state population between now and April 1, 2020 is unrealistic. National trends, social, economic, demographic trends, as well as state and local policies affect actual population.

Alabama’s public and private leadership should seek to understand why Alabama is not growing at rates similar to its neighbors and ask what policies could best incentivize growth for the 2030 census.

For now, the state’s focus should be on generating as accurate a count as possible— counting everyone residing in Alabama as of April 1, 2020.

The best means to ensure a full and accurate count is to increase the census participation rate.

State Participation Rate The Census Bureau tracks local, state, and national response rates. These figures measure the percent of households that return the census form by mail. Through 2010, households that did not respond to the initial mailed census form would receive additional mailings. Households that did not respond after multiple mailings received a visit from a census worker. In 2020, the participation rate will be measured as the number of people who complete an online submission or respond to a subsequent mailing.

14

In 2010, the national response rate was 74 percent and Alabama’s rate was 72 percent.21 See Figure 2.

Figure 2. 2010 Census Participation Rates: U.S., Alabama, High and Low Performers

90% 85% 80% 75%

70% 65% 60% 2000 U.S.

Wisconsin

Alabama

2010 Alaska

Again, this does not mean that the 2010 census only counted 72 percent of the people in Alabama. It means that 72 percent of the households in Alabama responded to the paper questionnaire. The remaining 28 percent of households received additional follow-up contacts up to and including a visit from a census worker. Still, increasing the Initial Participation Rate is one way to improve upon the accuracy and timeliness of the count.

While Alabama’s rate of 72 percent may sound low, it is an increase from 68 percent in 2000 and only two percentage points below the national average of 74 percent. In 2010, Wisconsin led the nation with an 82 percent rate and Alaska reported the lowest at 64 percent. Alabama was one of 24 states that saw its participation rate increase in 2010.

21

U.S. Census Bureau. Nation Achieves 74 Percent Final Mail Participation Rate in 2010 Census. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb10-cn81.html

15

Alabama compares unfavorably to its Southeastern neighbors. In 2000, Alabama’s 68 percent tied Louisiana and South Carolina for last last in the region and trailing region leader Tennessee by 4 percentage points. See Figure 3.

Figure 3. 2000 Census Response Rates Among Southeastern States

By 2010 Alabama eclipsed Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, but still trailed Tennessee and North Carolina by 4 percentage points. Note also that South Carolina, which saw the largest improvement not only in the Southeast but also in the nation.

See Figure 4.

Local Participation Rate An accurate count at the state level is important, but so too are accurate counts at the city and county level. In fact, it is possible for cities and counties to have full and complete counts even if the overall state count is not.

This creates an opportunity for local officials to take the 2020 census seriously—and data shows there is room for improvement. Table 1 compares the participation rates for Alabama and its cities and counties.

16

Figure 4. 2010 Census Response Rates Among Southeastern States

Table 1. Census Participation Rates: U.S., Alabama, Alabama Cities and Counties

2000 Rate

2010 Rate

U.S. Initial Participation Rate

74%

74%

Alabama Initial Participation Rate

68%

72%

Alabama Counties’ Initial Participation Rate

63%

66%

Alabama Cities’ Initial Participation Rate

65%

69%

In 2000, 270 cities and towns and 48 counties trailed the state’s initial participation rate of 68 percent. By 2010, these numbers dropped to 202 and 30, respectively.

Complete participation rates by county and city are provided in the appendix.

17

While a statewide focus is critical, a complete state count can only be achieved by complete counts of our cities and counties. This is an opportunity and a responsibility for local leadership.

There is evidence that this is understood. An estimated 340 local communities—more than twice the number from a decade ago— have supported census workers verifying addresses, which is key to getting an accurate and complete count.22

Mapping residences is essential, but it is only the first step.

Undercounted Communities Alabama, like all states, is particularly concerned about failing to count certain hardto-reach communities. Undercounting the communities has the double impact of reducing the state’s overall population and jeopardizing funding for services to these populations. In such a scenario, state and local officials would still be responsible to provide services, albeit with fewer resources.

Many communities and population groups are at risk of not being fully counted, including young children, people in rural areas, people

Many communities and population groups are at risk of not being fully counted…

in poverty, and immigrants—in part due to geographic isolation, limited language assistance, housing instability, and anti-immigrant rhetoric by federal officials that could prompt some immigrants to fear participating in the count.23 An undercount for these individuals/groups could create more barriers to

opportunity, negatively impact political representation, and affect funding from local,

22

Mellnik, Ted and Reuben Fischer-Baum. 2019. What’s New for the 2020 Census? The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/census-2020technology/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.58e51d9a0cfc 23

Waxman, Samantha. (2018). States Can Help Ensure a Complete 2020 Census Count.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/blog/states-can-help-ensurea-complete-2020-census-count

18

state, and federal sources. It is therefore crucial to reach these hard-to-count/hardto-reach groups.

These are not insignificant populations in Alabama. Table 2 indicates the estimated number of these communities. Note that the people may be counted in multiple categories.

Table 2. Alabama Populations At Risk for Census Undercount, 2017 Estimates

Low Income24

18%

849,699

Children Under 525

6%

287,440

Limited/No English26

2.1%

95,730

Renter Households27

31.4%

583,478

People 25 and older without a high school diploma28

14%

458.918

Rural or isolated residents29

45%

2,160,000

People who are homeless30

*

3,434

With a population margin of as low as 15,000, under-counting any of these groups by even a small percentage will cost Alabama a congressional seat.

An undercount for these individuals and groups could create more barriers to opportunity, negatively impact political representation, and affect funding from local,

24

U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey, 2017 American Community Survey 5Year Estimates, using American FactFinder, https://factfinder.census.gov. Analysis by PARCA. 25

Ibid.

26

Ibid.

27

Ibid.

28

Ibid.

29

“Every County in State has Some Rural Population,� (August 20, 2019). University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research https://cber.culverhouse.ua.edu/2019/08/20/every-county-in-state-has-some-ruralpopulation/ 30

Alabama Homelessness Statistics. United States Interagency Council on Homelessness. https://www.usich.gov/homelessness-statistics/al/

19

state, and federal sources. It is therefore crucial to reach these hard-to-count/hardto-reach groups.

Alabama Counts!

To this end, the state has created Alabama Counts!, “an advisory group composed of public and private statewide organizations committed to working together to ensure each Alabamian is counted in the 2020 Census.�31

Alabama Counts! is known as a complete count committee, a state-level entity seeking to enable a full and complete count of its population. Alabama is one of 33 states to launch such a committee to date.

Figure 5: Alabama Counts Logo

Alabama Counts! is coordinated through the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) and is divided into eight subcommittees: government, education., faith-based groups, community-based groups, economic development/industry, health care, rural, and outreach. These committees and an executive committee are working to promote the census at the state and local level.

State Funding Alabama is one of 22 states committing funding to promote the 2020 Census.

Alabama’s funding of $1.24 million equates to $0.25 per capita. This compares to

31AlabamaCounts!

https://census.alabama.gov/alabama-counts/

20

$0.36 per capita in Georgia and a national average of funding (committed and pending) per capita of $1.37. See Figure 6.

Figure 6. Per Capita State Funding for 2020 Census Promotion

21

Conclusion The 2020 Census is critical for Alabama. State and local officials are making a concerted effort to secure an accurate and complete count, although the state is spending significantly less than other states. Even if the efforts of Alabama Counts! are exceedingly successful, Alabama may well lose a congressional seat. Census workers simply cannot count people who are not here. And Alabama is simply not growing as fast as other states.

Once the results of the 2020 Census are made known, state and local leaders would be wise to shift their attention to policies and projects designed to attract and retain residents.

The 2030 Census will be here before we know it.

22

Appendix Census Initial Participation Rates by Alabama Counties Counties are listed in alphabetical order. Cells reflected #1 ranking in each column are highlighted in green.

County Autauga Baldwin Barbour Bibb Blount Bullock Butler Calhoun Chambers Cherokee Chilton Choctaw Clarke Clay Cleburne Coffee Colbert Conecuh Coosa Covington Crenshaw Cullman Dale Dallas DeKalb Elmore Escambia Etowah Fayette Franklin Geneva Greene Hale Henry Houston

2000 Rate 75% 70% 61% 55% 65% 51% 62% 69% 67% 51% 63% 56% 57% 61% 62% 67% 71% 51% 47% 63% 61% 69% 62% 59% 66% 69% 60% 74% 66% 66% 63% 48% 44% 58% 68%

2000 Rank 4 14 40 55 29 59 35 15 20 59 30 52 51 40 35 20 9 59 65 30 40 15 35 46 24 15 44 6 24 24 30 63 66 49 18

2010 Rate 78% 73% 63% 58% 80% 34% 56% 75% 74% 55% 72% 57% 57% 70% 67% 71% 74% 53% 47% 64% 65% 76% 60% 63% 70% 78% 70% 76% 78% 72% 73% 42% 55% 59% 73%

23

2010 Rank 4 22 44 50 1

67 55 12 15 57 26 51 51 33 38 30 15 59 62 42 41 8 47 44 33 4 33 8 4 26 22 65 57 48 22

Change 3.8% 4.1% 3.2% 5.2% 18.8% -50.0% -10.7% 8.0% 9.5% 7.3% 12.5% 1.8% 0.0% 12.9% 7.5% 5.6% 4.1% 3.8% 0.0% 1.6% 6.2% 9.2% -3.3% 6.3% 5.7% 11.5% 14.3% 2.6% 15.4% 8.3% 13.7% -14.3% 20.0% 1.7% 6.8%

Change Rank 41 37 44 35 2 67 63 23 19 26 11 46 52 9 24 33 38 42 52 49 31 21 58 29 32 13 6 45 5 22 8 64 1

47 27

Jackson Jefferson Lamar Lauderdale Lawrence Lee Limestone Lowndes Macon Madison Marengo Marion Marshall Mobile Monroe Montgomery Morgan Perry Pickens Pike Randolph Russell Shelby St. Clair Sumter Talladega Tallapoosa Tuscaloosa Walker Washington Wilcox Winston

66% 73% 67% 74% 71% 68% 78% 49% 54% 78% 56% 66% 71% 71% 54% 71% 77% 48% 62% 58% 61% 63% 75% 62% 55% 63% 59% 67% 60% 56% 42% 59%

74% 74% 80% 73% 76% 72% 77% 47% 66% 76% 63% 75% 74% 72% 56% 74% 75% 41% 57% 59% 64% 68% 80% 71% 48% 71% 66% 74% 70% 53% 47% 57%

24 8 20 6 9 18 1

62 57 1

52 24 9 9 57 9 3 63 35 49 40 30 4 35 55 30 46 20 44 52 67 46

15 15 1

22 8 26 7 62 39 8 44 12 15 26 55 15 12 66 51 48 42 37 1

30 61 30 39 15 33 59 62 51

10.8% 1.4% 16.3% -1.4% 6.6% 5.6% -1.3% -4.3% 18.2% -2.6% 11.1% 12.0% 4.1% 1.4% 3.6% 4.1% -2.7% -17.1% -8.8% 1.7% 4.7% 7.4% 6.3% 12.7% -14.6% 11.3% 10.6% 9.5% 14.3% -5.7% 10.6% -3.5%

16 51 4 55 28 34 54 60 3 56 15 12 38 50 43 38 57 66 62 47 36 25 30 10 65 14 18 19 6 61 17 59

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Participation Rates. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2010/dec/2010-participation-rates.html. Analysis by PARCA.

24

We all want similar things…good schools, safe neighborhoods, a strong economy, freedom, equality, and opportunity. Achieving these shared goals is impossible without an honest assessment of where we are, an idea of where we want to go, and paths to take us there. As Americans and Alabamians, we answer these questions through vigorous debate and honest negotiation which require accurate and unbiased information. PARCA provides this information.

We are… …Alabama’s first and only nonprofit, nonpartisan, good government research center.

We work… …to inform and improve the decision making of state and local leaders in Alabama through objective research and analysis.

We research… …government structure and performance …public education …public finance …workforce development.

We provide… …data analysis, policy research, performance evaluation, and technical assistance.

We believe…

Alabama can do better.

Sound public policy is essential.

Sound public policy requires open, transparent and responsive government.

Sound public policy is based on fact, pursues a clear goal, and is assessed honestly.

We search… …for people who believe these things too, and who will join this effort.

Learn more and join the cause at www.parcalabama.org

P.O. BOX 293931 · 800 LAKESHORE DRIVE · BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA 35229 · 205 726 2482 PARCALABAMA.ORG

800 Lakeshore Drive P.O. Box 293931 Birmingham, Alabama 35229 205.726.2482 www.parcalabama.org