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Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

A Member of Real Living


Table of Contents

Market Appreciation: A Glimpse Into the Future 5 Move-Up Buyers: Now Is the Time to Act!

6

Contra Costa County 8 East Bay 12 Marin County 16 Napa County 20 San Francisco 24 Sonoma County 32 Sonoma Valley 36 Tahoe/Truckee 40


Market Appreciation: A Glimpse Into the Future We are frequently asked how long the current real estate market or housing cycle will run. Our industry is not short on opinions, predictions, and speculations. This past month, I reviewed the most comprehensive housing report I have read since 2007: The John Burns Real Estate Consulting Home Value Index. The report defines housing-cycle risk as a function of demand, supply, and affordability. This is a fairly simple perspective that comes as no surprise. The forecast or outlook is dependent on job growth for demand and excess supply in the forms of new construction or foreclosures. On a relative scale compared with the housing market in the U.S., our local markets have limited excess supply at this time. The Burns report goes on to note that the markets with the most upside are clearly those that experienced the most significant downs. Again, this concept is not overly complex, and the variables are relatively easy to comprehend. The most stimulating aspect of the report is in the Burns Home Value Index Forecast for December 2017. We have often struggled with the S&P/Case-Shiller and similar indexes, which generally offer perspectives based on 90 to 120 days trailing market performance and do not look forward. The Burns report cites summary research from nearly 100 economists’ responses to questions about housing appreciation in the U.S. from Q4 2012 through December 2017. The Burns report estimates 35.9 percent appreciation through December 2017, with more than 9 percent already realized through September 2013. The 100 economists’ consensus for that same time frame was 22.9 percent appreciation, with 6 percent already realized. The Burns report provides regional outlooks on nearly 100 markets. The Bay Area findings are illustrated in the table below:

Trailing 12 Month Appreciation

August 2014 Forecast

December 2017 Forecast

Oakland

33.5%

11.8%

24.0%

Santa Rosa

26.9%

12.4%

26.0%

Market

San Francisco

17.3%

6.9%

19.0%

With the caveat that real estate is local and each neighborhood and home is unique, these forecasts are very reassuring. In particular, the outlook for 2017 is exceptionally encouraging. However, the report illustrates that the majority of the lift in the market will occur in 2014 and 2015, with modest to flat growth in 2016 and 2017. The opportunity to realize value in real estate and historically low mortgage rates is now. Mortgages will likely exceed 6 percent by 2016, a 30 percent increase from today’s rates. Your local Pacific Union real estate professional is uniquely positioned to review macro trends and neighborhood specifics to assist you in your residential real estate investments. Please remember that your most significant real estate investment is in your home — which is a place to live and create memories — rather than just your house.

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.


Move-Up Buyers: Now Is the Time to Act! Many would-be move-up buyers have been sitting on the sidelines in recent months, crossing their fingers that the Bay Area’s superheated real estate market will cool. But conditions are about to get tougher – so hesitant move-up buyers should act now. Looming ahead is the prospect of rising interest rates coupled with continued price appreciation in home sales. Buyers who don’t seize the moment will likely regret it with their checkbooks down the road. “I tell people to buy everything you can afford to buy with these interest rates today,” says Patrick Barber, president of Pacific Union’s San Francisco region. “They cannot stay this low forever.” We’re already seeing the truth in that statement. At the start of the year, the APR for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 3.41, one of the lowest levels ever recorded. But in June, rates crept above 4.0 percent. By the end of August, they were at 4.46 percent – a 31 percent rise. In mid-September, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly announced that it would continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities, in a move that some feel could keep interest rates fairly low for the remainder of the year. Savvy buyers, however, will want to be prepared for a worst-case scenario. For example, let’s suppose that buyers who are upgrading their home will spend about 35 percent above the median sales prices, which was $715,714 across Pacific Union’s seven Bay Area regions as of September 9. Let’s also assume that the median sales price in the region will increase 12 percent annually and interest rates will climb 1 percentage point per year. By that math, move-up buyers who delay their purchases for two years could spend nearly $39,000 more each year in monthly payments, as well as almost $100,000 extra for their down payment.

Move-Up Buyers: The High Cost of Waiting August 2013

August 2014

August 2015

n/a

12%

12%

Median sales price

$715,714

$801,600

$897,792

"Move-up" median sales price (+ 35%)

$966,214

$1,082,160

$1,212,019

Down payment (20%) on move-up price

$193,243

$216,432

$242,404

Increase in down payment versus 2013

n/a

$23,189

$49,161

$772,971

$865,728

$969,615

Potential APR (jumbo, 30-year fixed)

4.46%

5.46%

6.46%

Total monthly mortgage payment

$3,898

$4,894

$6,103

Increase in monthly payment versus 2013

n/a

$996

$2,205

Potential first-year additional cost versus 2013

n/a

$35,136.57

$75,620.48

Market appreciation (estimated)

Total mortgage amount

Some people have already worked out the math. In San Francisco, one of our top real estate professionals notes we are seeing the most activity in the move-up-buyer population since the recession. In Marin County, increasing inventory has spurred an uptick in purchases by move-up buyers, says Brent Thomson, Pacific Union’s senior vice president in the region

Out With the Old – But How? Whether they’re primed to act now or not, Bay Area move-up buyers face one dilemma that first-time buyers do not: They not only need to find new homes in a hot market, they also need to sell their current properties.


That’s not a problem if you’re flush with cash. But if you have limited funds, you might need to sell your current home before buying a new one or negotiate a rent-back agreement, which would allow you to remain in your sold home while you search for a new residence. “The safe bet is to always sell your property and get a rent-back,” says Barber. “If you buy a piece of property (before you sell), you have a large financial commitment. Most families cannot afford two mortgages.” Our real estate professional reports that she has had some success working with clients who attempt to sell their existing home while buying a new one. “Once their offer (on their new home) is accepted, they prepare the old home for market as fast as possible,” she says. “But everything has to go very smoothly in order for the seller not to be in the stressful position of owning two homes at once.” You might be able to make the sale of your current home contingent on finding another acceptable property, but the success of this strategy depends on market conditions. The approach has worked for some move-up buyers in Marin County, says Thomson, but there’s a catch: “The key is that the house that they are selling has to be priced right,” she says. And in many markets where sellers are receiving multiple offers, they may be less likely to accept your contingent offer when other, clear offers are available.

Financing Options for Move-Up Buyers If you’re ready to hop off the fence but don’t have money to put toward a new home, bridge-financing products – short-term loans that can help you purchase a new home before your current home sells – may be a solution. While bridge loans can help ensure you don’t miss out on your dream property while your current one sits on the market, they do carry higher interest rates than regular mortgages. Another option is the HomeBuyer product from FirstREX, which is offered via Pacific Union partner Mortgage Services Professionals. FirstREX’s product enables you to make up a cash shortfall by loaning you 50 percent of the down payment in exchange for a stake in your current home’s eventual price appreciation or depreciation. As with any homebuying transaction, you should consult with a reputable mortgage provider who can offer guidance on all your financing options. Whichever approach you take, one thing’s for sure: It’s time to come off the sidelines and get into the game, or you risk some big financial penalties in years ahead.

Bay Area 10-Year Overview Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2013, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.

Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q3 Homes Sold REGION

Q3 '03

Q3 '04

Q3 '05

Q3 '06

Q3 '07

Q3 '08

Q3 '09

Q3 '10

Q3 '11

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

4,054

3,878

3,820

2,470

1,592

3,420

3,364

2,831

3,110

3,084

2,820

EAST BAY

901

958

761

681

570

556

492

523

539

684

697

MARIN COUNTY

879

793

726

588

496

492

483

466

525

662

690

NAPA COUNTY

432

409

437

282

187

296

340

330

338

382

368

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH)

867

851

754

643

520

619

651

578

626

637

672

SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS)

674

686

660

537

488

491

480

462

509

681

680

SONOMA COUNTY

1,873

1,911

1,762

1,165

901

1,271

1,236

1,150

1,274

1,451

1,390

SONOMA VALLEY

163

173

170

116

103

112

109

123

138

168

164

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH)

156

422

392

269

176

204

255

266

289

344

379

30

128

114

83

54

56

82

72

70

86

98

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS)

Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, TSIERRA, October 4, 2013.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.


Contra Costa County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Ellen Anderson Senior Vice President, Contra Costa County 925.743.9330 ellen.anderson@pacunion.com 101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526


Contra Costa County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Contra Costa County: Q3 Results July was exceptionally busy in our Contra Costa County region, contributing to a strong third quarter. Sales slowed a bit in August, following seasonal patterns, then picked up again in September. We also saw inventory expand by September, offering welcome relief for buyers. Multiple offers remained the rule, but bidding wars weren’t quite as frenzied as they were in past quarters. Most homes sold above their asking prices, with those priced under $1 million selling quickly. The market for homes priced at $2.5 million and higher, however, was noticeably slower. Available houses between those two price points were in short supply, and they needed to be priced just right to attract buyers. Even in a market with a short supply of homes, those that are not cleaned up and priced correctly will not sell quickly. Buyers need to feel they are getting a good deal, and they will delay placing an offer if they feel the price will eventually come down. Looking Forward: We expect moderate price growth and steady sales in the early part of the fourth quarter, with a typical slowdown as the holiday season approaches. Rising interest rates could put a damper on sales – or cause a rush as buyers move to lock in lower rates. Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $900,000 $800,000 $700,000

$655,000

$712,000 $640,750

$600,000

$611,500

$620,504

$580,000

$753,500

$800,000

$825,000

$785,000

$801,000

$760,000

$600,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 1.9 1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5 1.3

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

1.4

1.4

Jul-13

Aug-13

0.9

0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.


Contra Costa County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 35 30

28

27

25

29

30

30

25

23

21

20

19

21

21

21

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

18

15 10 5 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60% 49.2%

50% 40%

35.3%

36.5%

38.0%

35.2%

39.0%

40.6%

44.0%

41.9%

38.0%

37.0%

35.7%

33.7%

30% 20% 10% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 103%

102.3%

102.2%

102%

100%

101.0% 100.2%

99.6%

99.1% 98.6%

99% 98%

100.9%

100.7%

101%

99.4%

98.5% 97.9%

97.9%

97% 96% 95%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.


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A Closer Look at Contra Costa County

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Alamo

$

80,757,780

$

76,486,585

-5%

62

52

-16%

35

24

-31%

$ 1,207,500

$ 1,372,000

14%

Blackhawk

$

15,356,000

$

29,497,788

92%

11

21

91%

95

54

-43%

$ 1,340,000

$ 1,220,000

-9%

Concord

$

111,350,019

$

143,408,811

29%

336

316

-6%

30

17

-43%

$

316,400

$

440,000

39%

Danville

$ 169,362,821

$ 212,455,286

25%

177

199

12%

37

21

-43%

$

850,000

$

985,000

16%

Diablo

$

12,380,000

$

9,398,000

-24%

7

5

-29%

43

46

7%

$ 1,750,000

$ 1,640,000

-6%

Lafayette

$

85,721,628

$ 109,312,105

28%

82

89

9%

37

32

-14%

$

930,000

$ 1,150,000

24%

Martinez

$

49,516,624

$

57,808,430

17%

136

122

-10%

32

23

-28%

$

347,500

$

450,000

29%

Moraga

$

36,114,901

$

52,940,896

47%

35

45

29%

31

20

-35%

$

890,000

$ 1,152,500

29%

Orinda

$

94,355,283

$

92,288,868

-2%

84

77

-8%

39

26

-33%

$

945,000

$ 1,050,000

11%

Pleasant Hill

$

42,715,471

$

57,457,412

35%

86

96

12%

19

16

-16%

$

497,500

$

625,000

26%

San Ramon

$ 152,925,310

$ 220,444,681

44%

200

244

22%

29

16

-45%

$

727,500

$

880,000

21%

Walnut Creek

$ 125,933,305

$ 150,552,805

20%

172

170

-1%

27

21

-22%

$

700,000

$

817,500

17%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.


East Bay Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Pam Hoffman Senior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region 510.339.6460 phoffman@pacunion.com 1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611


East Bay pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

East Bay: Q3 Results After attracting national attention earlier this year because of its drought of available homes, our East Bay region saw welcome relief in July, with a modest uptick in new listings. After a slow August – typical for the last days of summer – we saw inventory rise again in early September. Inventory is the driving factor in East Bay real estate, and the increase in homes for sale, though still below levels seen in previous years, made for an unexpectedly active summer. Fully 80 percent of sales involved multiple offers, with an average of three to four offers per home, and most homes sold at more than 10 percent above their asking prices. Home prices continued to rise, and midrangepriced properties saw strong sales, while the higher end of the market – $1.5 million and above – was slower. Looking Forward: Allowing for the typical slowdown that comes with the year-end holiday season, we remain hopeful that listings will continue to expand in the fourth quarter and into 2014, helping to keep the velocity of sales at a high pace. Home prices will continue to increase, though perhaps not as fiercely as in recent quarters. Rising interest rates may keep some buyers on the sidelines, but they also may compel others to move quickly. Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $800,000 $709,500 $700,000 $600,000

$624,000

$650,000

$609,000

$572,500

$755,000

$764,000

$760,000

$740,000

$741,500

$725,000

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

$646,000 $584,275

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6

2.1

2.1 1.9

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.2 1.0

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.3 1.1

0.9 0.5

0.6

0.1

1.2

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.


East Bay pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 35

32

31

30

27

31

27

27

25

25

21

20

20

17

18

20

20

15 10 5 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50%

44.6%

45% 40%

42.6%

47.5%

44.0%

35.7%

44.4%

46.6% 41.0%

38.0%

37.3%

Jan-13

Feb-13

38.8%

38.1%

Jul-13

Aug-13

35%

35.5%

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 115%

113.5% 110.3%

110%

110.6%

110.4%

109.0%

104.6%

105%

100%

109.6% 107.3%

106.7% 102.0% 100.4%

101.5%

102.4%

95%

90%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.


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A Closer Look at the East Bay

East Bay Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

19,433,380

4%

29

28

-3%

22

18

-18%

$

655,000

$

687,500

5%

$ 126,172,522

12%

154

133

-14%

29

20

-31%

$

663,500

$

810,000

22%

Albany

$

18,767,715

Berkeley

$

112,406,616

El Cerrito

$

25,997,645

$

41,834,387

61%

50

70

40%

19

21

11%

$

508,500

$

587,000

15%

Kensington

$

11,681,460

$

20,467,300

75%

17

20

18%

26

22

-15%

$

705,000

$

861,650

22%

Oakland*

$ 240,631,926

$

311,784,728

30%

395

412

4%

34

23

-32%

$

570,000

$

719,000

26%

Piedmont

$

$

51,034,325

-21%

39

34

-13%

24

20

-17%

$ 1,450,000

$ 1,512,750

4%

$

64,873,451

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

44,841,098

-44%

232

118

-49%

39

23

-41%

$

360,000

$

400,000

11%

Over $500,000 $ 393,902,499

$ 525,885,544

34%

452

579

28%

26

21

-19%

$

738,500

$

790,000

7%

$500,000 $1 million

$ 243,821,082

$ 317,807,817

30%

351

436

24%

26

20

-23%

$

677,000

$

725,000

7%

Over $1 million $ 150,081,417

$ 208,077,727

39%

101

143

42%

27

24

-11%

$ 1,320,000

$ 1,300,000

-2%

Under $500,000

$

Q3 '13

80,456,314

$

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Source: Terradatum, Oct. 4, 2013. Data is for SFH in the East Bay, defined as Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

Oakland Price Changes Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Neighborhood

Average Price <$800,000 Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Average Price $800,000 + % change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller

$638,380

$694,848

9%

$1,004,961

$1,079,694

7%

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake

$569,279

$671,106

18%

$1,122,614

$1,035,233

-8%

Rockridge / Claremont

$606,511

$711,500

17%

$1,170,950

$1,160,622

-1%

Glenview / Oakmore

$630,817

$638,200

1%

$911,139

$1,034,888

14%

Laurel / Dimond

$369,666

$458,074

24%

n/a

n/a

n/a

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights

$559,346

$677,550

21%

n/a

$848,666

n/a

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline

$634,166

$778,250

23%

$1,125,500

$1,431,272

27%

Temescal / Piedmont Ave.

$637,333

$678,346

6%

$976,000

$837,250

-14%

Source: EBRD, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.


Marin County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Brent Thomson Senior Vice President, Marin County 415.383.1900 brent.thomson@pacunion.com 575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941


Marin County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Marin County: Q3 Results July was a very busy month in our Marin County region, followed by a seasonal lag in August and early September. The number of homes for sale remains constrained, keeping prices high and buyers scrambling, although we saw a slight uptick in the number of available properties in September. Homes priced $800,000 to $1 million saw aggressive bidding, and those priced above $1.6 million also saw robust sales, but the overall market calmed down somewhat after several quarters of increasingly overheated activity. The furious bidding that we saw in June had settled by September. Still, homes that are priced correctly and in popular neighborhoods – the Mill Valley market remains strong, for example – sold quickly. Investors remained eager to buy lower-priced properties, although that market tightened considerably in the third quarter. This is due in part to fewer foreclosures and short sales entering the market after months of rising home prices helped many underwater owners regain equity. Looking Forward: We expect to see very strong sales in October and into early November – particularly if the inventory of available homes continues to expand – before activity slows as the holiday season approaches. Rising interest rates remain a wild card, constraining sales or perhaps prompting buyers to move fast. Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,008,650

$1,100,000 $949,000

$1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000

$855,000 $790,000

$775,000

$775,000

$790,000

$840,000

$849,500

Feb-13

Mar-13

$945,000

$990,000

$946,000 $850,000

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.6 3.1

3.1 2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.1 1.6

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.9

Jun-13

Jul-13

1.7

1.1 0.6 0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.


Marin County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 120 102 100 80

78

74

77

89

85

79

60

49

47

Apr-13

May-13

52

50

Jul-13

Aug-13

42

54

40 20 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 45%

41.0%

40%

30% 25%

35.7%

34.7%

35%

31.8% 25.3%

22.8%

24.1%

34.2%

31.2%

30.6%

Jun-13

Jul-13

26.5%

29.2%

32.3%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 102%

100.6%

100%

98.9%

98%

98.6% 97.0%

96.9%

96% 94%

100.0%

94.0%

94.8%

94.2% 92.9%

92.6%

Nov-12

Dec-12

92%

92.1%

92.9%

90% 88% 86%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.


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A Closer Look at Marin County

Marin County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Belvedere

$

31,398,750

$

38,095,000

21%

11

7

-36%

54

75

39%

$ 2,500,000

$ 2,015,000

-19%

Corte Madera

$

19,239,189

$

35,549,885

85%

21

32

52%

58

38

-34%

$

899,000

$ 1,025,605

14%

Fairfax

$

13,791,609

$

14,287,300

4%

23

19

-17%

77

44

-43%

$

600,000

$

660,000

10%

Greenbrae

$

19,065,535

$

26,057,000

37%

16

20

25%

83

34

-59%

$ 1,145,000

$ 1,245,000

9%

Kentfield

$

26,804,300

$

56,055,133

109%

14

23

64%

58

56

-3%

$ 1,190,000

$ 1,985,000

67%

Larkspur

$

23,868,970

$

34,309,300

44%

20

23

15%

90

52

-42%

$ 1,105,000

$ 1,400,000

27%

Mill Valley

$ 132,837,630

$ 127,382,317

-4%

106

95

-10%

78

45

-42%

$

972,500

$ 1,175,000

21%

Novato

$ 105,219,347

$ 120,021,600

14%

161

157

-2%

87

65

-25%

$

587,500

$

710,100

21%

Ross

$

20,038,800

$

23,572,000

18%

12

9

-25%

82

59

-28%

$ 1,475,000

$ 2,000,000

36%

San Anselmo

$

47,662,202

$

56,196,900

18%

51

52

2%

73

47

-36%

$

775,000

$

903,500

17%

San Rafael

$ 109,490,995

$ 138,345,279

26%

138

152

10%

72

48

-33%

$

720,000

$

832,020

16%

Sausalito

$

25,023,500

$

42,517,333

70%

14

20

43%

97

60

-38%

$ 1,285,000

$ 1,485,000

16%

Tiburon

$

54,399,150

$ 105,671,550

94%

32

42

31%

69

53

-23%

$ 1,615,000

$ 2,150,000

33%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.


Napa County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Linda Carroll Branch Executive, Napa County 707.251.8805 linda.carroll@pacunion.com 944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559


Napa County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Napa County: Q3 Results The cyclic nature of sales activity was once again in evidence in Napa County as sales slowed in July and August as buyers took vacations and readied children for the new school year. However, activity began to pick up again in September. The median home price, meanwhile, continued to climb above $500,000 throughout the third quarter, posting a year-over-year gain of more than 20 percent. Market conditions shifted in favor of buyers for the first time in many months as demand leveled off. In particular, homes priced from $600,000 to $700,000 remained on the market longer than in the second quarter and the number of multiple offers eased. While it was common for sellers to receive 10 to 15 offers earlier in the year, by September this pattern had leveled off, with many sellers entertaining only a handful of bids. The number of homes for sale grew solidly from July to August, but by September the supply began to shrink again. A year ago, homes lasted on the market for about 90 days, but by the third quarter that time had decreased by a month. Looking Forward: Now that buyers are focusing on home purchases again after the summer recess, we are optimistic that sales activity will continue its upward trajectory for the remainder of the year. Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

Median Sales Price $525,000

$550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000

$410,000

$414,000 $360,000

$370,000

$350,000

$430,000

$453,000

$477,500

$505,000

$525,000 $468,500

$415,650

$355,000

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

Monthsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Supply of Inventory 4.6 4.1

4.0 3.6

3.6 3.1

2.7

2.9

3.8

3.5

3.0

3.8 3.4

3.0 2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.


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Average Days on the Market 140 120

118 104

100

100

103

111 92

99 88

86

80

82

77

82

67

60 40 20 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 35% 30% 24.6%

25% 20%

19.8%

18.7%

24.3%

27.2%

28.8% 23.0%

22.4%

22.6%

Jun-13

Jul-13

21.8%

18.1%

20.5%

16.0%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 100% 97.3%

98% 95.5%

96% 94%

93.4%

92%

92.1%

98.4% 96.7%

96.5%

96.3%

96.1%

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

93.8%

93.2% 91.5%

90% 88%

86.5%

86% 84% 82% 80%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.


Napa County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

A Closer Look at Napa County

Napa County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

American Canyon

$

19,734,598

$

17,552,850

-11%

64

46

-28%

96

69

-28%

$

309,750

$

365,000

18%

Angwin

$

2,390,500

$

2,939,858

23%

7

5

-29%

139

62

-55%

$

299,500

$

540,000

80%

Calistoga

$

13,118,500

$

17,066,719

30%

15

20

33%

240

90

-63%

$

800,000

$

642,500

-20%

Napa

$ 129,031,873

$ 164,777,310

28%

267

263

-1%

123

73

-41%

$

389,900

$

483,300

24%

St. Helena

$

36,558,000

$

36,257,500

-1%

23

25

9%

99

179

81%

$

940,000

$ 1,185,000

26%

Yountville

$

3,424,000

$

6,008,000

75%

4

5

25%

78

66

-15%

$

717,000

$

11%

795,000

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Under $500,000

$

83,111,434

$

67,594,650

-19%

263

181

-31%

107

70

-35%

$

321,000

$

377,000

17%

$500,000 $999,999

$

59,900,787

$

96,817,368

62%

89

144

62%

135

77

-43%

$

645,000

$

627,500

-3%

$1 million - $3 million

$

41,363,150

$

57,118,000

38%

26

37

42%

216

132

-39%

$ 1,407,500

$ 1,350,000

-4%

Over $3 million $

18,300,000

$

25,252,219

38%

4

6

50%

149

158

6%

$ 4,300,000

$ 3,850,000

-10%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.


San Francisco Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Patrick Barber President, San Francisco Region 415.929.7100 patrick.barber@pacunion.com One Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 500 | San Francisco, CA 94129


San Francisco pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

San Francisco: Q3 Results A strong economy, rising employment, and the specter of higher interest rates combined to keep buyers bidding aggressively for single-family homes and condominiums in San Francisco throughout the third quarter. The supply of available homes on the market remained constrained, helping to push prices higher. Sellers remained in the driver’s seat, and homes sold quickly at all price points. Three homes that came on the market one day in mid-September, for example, were in contract within 24 hours. The overall sales cycle, typically 30 to 60 days, has been cut in half. Buyers need to have their financing preapproved and their paperwork ready to go in order to remain competitive in such a red-hot market. Persistence and a well-calculated offer are also keys. Looking Forward: Short of unforeseen economic or political incidents, we find nothing on the horizon that will dampen San Francisco’s real estate market. Construction of single-family homes and housing developments remains vigorous across the city, strongly suggesting robust activity throughout the fourth quarter and well into 2014. Even with the possibility of rising interest rates, San Francisco remains a premium market for buyers, including investors. Multiple offers will remain the rule, and the bidding will continue to move home prices higher.

Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price $1,100,000

$1,000,000

$1,000,000 $830,000

$900,000 $800,000

$810,000

$746,500

$950,000

$950,000

$920,000

$836,250

$725,000

$1,026,000 $945,000

$875,000

$800,500

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000

$820,000 $780,000

$812,000

$752,500

$772,500

$818,000

$855,000

$900,000

$870,500

$875,000 $825,000

$828,500

$865,000

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6

2.4

2.3 2.1

2.1 1.7 1.5

1.6

1.5 1.2

1.1

Nov-12

Dec-12

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.5 1.3

1.1

0.6

0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.7 1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.1

0.6

0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 70 58

60 50

46

45

48 42

40

40

39

35

31

35

38 33

30

30 20 10 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.


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Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 70 60

63

62

58

57

50

45

44

45 38

37

40

37

39

36 31

30 20 10 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 45%

40.1%

40% 35%

36.6%

32.5%

40.7% 34.0%

37.7%

41.6%

39.0%

34.4%

37.6%

37.7%

32.3%

32.3%

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 45% 36.0%

40% 35%

32.0%

36.8% 33.9%

31.9%

40.4%

40.4%

39.3%

39.8%

May-13

Jun-13

42.9%

34.3%

36.8%

36.0%

Aug-13

Sep-13

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.


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Single-Family Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 120%

105.1%

100%

100.9%

103.0%

102.5%

103.7%

105.2%

107.6%

107.6%

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

109.4%

105.4%

104.5%

Jul-13

Aug-13

108.3%

91.0%

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 108%

106.9%

106% 104.2%

104% 102%

103.1%

104.8%

106.3% 105.0%

104.2%

104.0%

102.2% 100.6%

100.7%

100%

99.2%

99.7%

98% 96% 94%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.


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Delving into San Franciscoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods. District 1:

Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.

District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights. District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview. District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park. District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks. District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition. District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights. District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,

Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.

District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach,

South of Market, Yerba Buena.

District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood,

Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.


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San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

District 1

$

69,353,600

$

81,578,225

18%

49

56

14%

39

34

-13%

$

1,165,000

$

1,210,000

District 2

$

71,500,151

$

132,695,176

86%

90

143

59%

39

29

-26%

$

749,250

$

856,000

14%

District 3

$

30,464,775

$

37,438,600

23%

53

51

-4%

44

30

-32%

$

518,000

$

670,000

29%

District 4

$

78,767,750

$

93,606,200

19%

74

75

1%

39

37

-5%

$

910,000

$ 1,150,000

26%

District 5

$

160,363,759

$

165,617,010

3%

97

93

-4%

37

27

-27%

$

1,475,000

District 6

$

13,518,833

$

19,085,000

41%

8

11

38%

47

46

-2%

District 7

$

82,004,249

$

169,130,200

106%

15

31

107%

77

38

District 8

$

11,213,675

$

12,725,000

13%

6

4

-33%

62

District 9

$

60,526,733

$

73,358,591

21%

70

69

-1%

44

District 10

$

84,677,718

$

84,511,456

0%

175

139

-21%

64

$

1,550,000

4%

5%

$ 1,375,000

$ 1,625,000

18%

-51%

$

$

4,900,000

23%

98

58%

$ 1,657,500

$ 2,500,000

51%

33

-25%

$

820,250

$

940,000

15%

38

-41%

$

490,000

$

620,000

27%

3,999,999

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

District 1

$

28,257,500

$

36,014,999

27%

34

39

15%

56

31

-45%

$

797,000

$

900,000

13%

District 2

$

10,008,000

$

8,360,750

-16%

13

12

-8%

62

32

-48%

$

765,000

$

822,500

8%

District 3

$

3,766,400

$

2,871,000

-24%

12

6

-50%

101

37

-63%

$

305,950

$

458,000

50%

District 4

$

4,549,000

$

8,380,301

84%

9

14

56%

76

31

-59%

$

410,000

$

602,500

47%

District 5

$

87,010,001

$

121,664,923

40%

87

108

24%

40

30

-25%

$

950,000

$

1,102,500

16%

District 6

$

57,150,686

$

60,414,000

6%

84

67

-20%

108

30

-72%

$

736,000

$

850,000

15%

District 7

$

63,814,706

$

116,232,969

82%

64

85

33%

47

32

-32%

$

900,000

$

1,228,000

36%

District 8

$

106,093,010

$

99,430,588

-6%

129

105

-19%

66

43

-35%

$

640,000

$

743,000

16%

District 9

$

190,878,079

$

205,386,474

8%

226

229

1%

50

37

-26%

$

717,500

$

805,000

12%

District 10

$

7,853,400

$

5,645,000

-28%

23

15

-35%

53

99

87%

$

339,000

$

360,000

6%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.


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San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Under $1 million

$

278,341,351

$

283,880,070

2%

445

388

-13%

51

35

-31%

$

$1 million - $3 million

$

263,441,060

$

373,007,388

42%

169

245

45%

37

30

-19%

Over $3 million $

120,608,832

$

212,858,000

76%

23

39

70%

61

46

-25%

Q3 '13

% change

750,000

19%

$ 1,465,000

$ 1,360,000

-7%

$

$

10%

628,000

3,999,999

$

4,400,000

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Under $1 million

$

334,817,424

$

305,624,457

-9%

531

441

-17%

65

38

-42%

$

$1 million - $2 million

$

173,796,858

$

282,693,547

63%

132

212

61%

44

32

-27%

Over $2 million $

50,766,500

$

76,083,000

50%

18

27

50%

58

36

-38%

Q3 '13

% change

705,000

8%

$ 1,244,375

$ 1,290,000

4%

$

$

-5%

655,000

2,512,500

$

2,388,000

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.


Sonoma County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Rick Laws Senior Vice President, Sonoma County 707.547.3800 rick.laws@pacunion.com 3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403


Sonoma County pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Sonoma County: Q3 Results Sales trends set at the beginning of 2013 continued through the third quarter in Sonoma County: high demand from buyers, a tight supply of homes for sale, and upward pressure on prices. The market for homes priced from $400,000 to $900,000 was strong, and we saw a surprisingly large jump in sales for high-priced properties â&#x20AC;&#x201C; up to $2 million. There was a big drop, however, in the sub-$400,000 market, which in recent years had been the province of foreclosures and short sales. Sales at that price point have slowed dramatically in recent months as the foreclosure and short-sale inventory dried up and homeowners regained equity and were able to hold onto their properties â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or trade up at higher price points. As the market slowly settled from the frenzy of previous quarters, sellers continued to receive multiple offers for their properties, though not as many as before. The inventory of available homes rose modestly in the third quarter. Looking Forward: After exhausting the supply of lower-priced properties, sales activity will gradually work its way up the market. We anticipate a strong finish for the year, with the recent uptick in interest rates acting as an incentive for both buyers and sellers to take advantage of a market that still offers solid bargains for buyers and quick, uncomplicated sales for sellers. Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

Median Sales Price $478,375

$500,000 $435,000

$450,000 $400,000 $350,000

$355,000

$367,000

$374,250

$389,500 $365,000

$380,000

$395,500

$425,000

$437,000

$439,475

$451,000

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Monthsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Supply of Inventory 3.1 2.7

2.6

2.6 2.0

2.1

2.1

2.6 2.3

2.1 2.0

1.8

2.0 1.7

1.9

1.9

Jul-13

Aug-13

1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.


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Average Days on the Market 120 100

90

101

93

99

101

99

93 79

80

68

71 62

68

67

Aug-13

Sep-13

60 40 20 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 40% 35% 30% 25%

31.3% 25.2%

34.4%

35.0%

34.5% 30.6%

28.6%

27.2% 23.4%

23.1%

Nov-12

Dec-12

31.9%

29.1%

31.3%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 100%

99.3%

99% 97.7%

98% 97% 96%

94.5%

95%

94.0%

97.4% 96.3%

96.1%

95.9%

95.9%

98.0%

95.3%

94.9% 93.6%

94% 93% 92% 91% 90%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.


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A Closer Look at Sonoma County

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Healdsburg

$

38,301,270

$

63,234,715

65%

53

59

11%

106

81

-24%

$

500,000

$

770,000

54%

Petaluma

$

86,119,946

$ 103,588,595

20%

188

183

-3%

88

61

-31%

$

399,500

$

490,000

23%

Rohnert Park

$

20,365,070

$

28,014,750

38%

67

69

3%

93

49

-47%

$

293,550

$

406,000

38%

Santa Rosa

$ 242,912,965

$ 245,102,999

1%

610

514

-16%

90

58

-36%

$

338,150

$

409,750

21%

Sebastopol

$

41,694,154

$

66,608,757

60%

63

91

44%

103

78

-24%

$

540,000

$

660,000

22%

Windsor

$

34,977,424

$

42,140,078

20%

91

85

-7%

87

75

-14%

$

362,500

$

455,000

26%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Under $1 million

$

543,118,901

$ 614,436,372

13%

1387

1290

-7%

93

64

-31%

$

$1 million and over

$

110,299,499

$ 178,983,304

62%

64

100

56%

101

137

36%

$ 1,400,000

355,000

Q3 '13

% change

439,000

24%

$ 1,347,500

-4%

$

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.


Sonoma Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Jill Silvas Branch Executive, Sonoma Valley 707.939.9500 jill.silvas@pacunion.com 135 West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Sonoma Valley: Q3 Results Sales activity in July and August was off-the-charts busy in our Sonoma Valley region. Even allowing for a slight slowdown in September, the third quarter proved that buyers are not afraid to wade into a market of rising prices and competitive bidding to find the right primary or second home. The number of homes for sale rose modestly in the quarter, although it remained down 22 percent from a year earlier and almost 50 percent from two years ago. Prices were up incrementally from the previous quarter but solidly above year-ago levels. The strongest market was for homes priced under $1 million. Multiple offers remained the norm in the third quarter, although most homes generated two or three offers rather than the eight to 10 offers we saw in previous quarters. Homes that weren’t priced accurately received little interest from buyers. Looking Forward: Demand for homes in Sonoma Valley remains strong. With the supply still far below normal levels, we expect the market to remain healthy throughout the end of the year and into the next. Rising interest rates remain a worry, although the possibility of significantly higher rates in 2014 could spark buyers to lock in mortgage rates that are still far below historical levels. Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refer to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

Median Sales Price $700,000 $605,000

$600,000

$560,000

$500,000 $400,000

$457,500

$459,000

$496,278

$401,000

$397,000

$382,875

$505,000

$494,550

$463,750

$586,000 $529,025

$300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.9

4.1

3.8

3.6 3.1

2.8

3.0

2.9 2.5

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.5 2.2

2.1

2.3 2.0

1.9

1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.


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Average Days on the Market 160

141

140 118

120 100

122 107

101

94

90

84

80 60

61

61

Apr-13

May-13

68

76

53

40 20 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 35%

32.0% 26.5%

29.4%

28.9%

26.8%

23.1%

25% 20%

32.1% 29.6%

30%

17.5%

20.0%

20.4%

Dec-12

Jan-13

18.3%

17.0%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 100% 97.5%

98%

97.5%

96%

92%

91.6%

95.2%

94.7%

93.9%

94%

98.7%

98.3%

92.4% 91.2%

91.2%

90.3%

90%

89.9%

88% 86% 84%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (inc. adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

A Closer Look at Sonoma Valley

Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Glen Ellen

$

11,193,000

$

11,316,000

1%

13

8

-38%

108

139

29%

$

611,000

$ 1,367,500

124%

Kenwood

$

8,443,750

$

7,230,000

-14%

11

7

-36%

64

94

47%

$

765,000

$

900,000

18%

Sonoma

$

79,708,985

$

112,965,830

42%

144

148

3%

94

72

-23%

$

417,500

$

507,500

22%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.


Tahoe/Truckee Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2013

Sally Gardner Branch Executive, Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 sally.gardner@pacunion.com


Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Tahoe/Truckee: Q3 Results The third quarter is typically the busiest time of the year in the Tahoe/Truckee region, as buyers move to close deals before the start of the ski season. This year was no different. Sales have been particularly robust in 2013, reaching levels we haven’t seen in five to seven years. Most sales in the Tahoe/Truckee region are second homes for Bay Area buyers, and the region’s booming economy is in evidence here. With interest rates still somewhat low, buyers snapped up attractive, accurately priced single-family homes and condominiums across the region. Prices rose solidly during the quarter, even as inventory levels expanded. Sales were most active in the Truckee, Tahoe Donner, and North Shore communities. We saw the most activity among homes priced under $800,000 and also in the $3 million-to-$6 million range. Looking Forward: We expect the region’s current busy market to continue unabated. Buyers have been looking at homes all summer and will continue to close deals through the fourth quarter and well into 2014. Shoppers hoping to win a bidding war are advised to have their mortgage preapproved – or pay cash if possible – and consider removing contingencies. Sellers are advised that competitively priced properties are more likely to receive multiple offers and spend less time sitting on the market Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes and condominiums in these communities.

Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price $600,000 $550,000 $500,000

$534,000

$511,000 $463,750

$450,000

$445,000

$446,000

Oct-12

Nov-12

$505,000

$528,000

$515,000

$550,000

$559,000

$550,000

$479,000

$457,500

$400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $450,000

$420,000

$400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000

$330,000

$320,000 $286,500

$288,000

Oct-12

Nov-12

$288,000

$306,000

$300,000

$296,000

Apr-13

May-13

$300,000

$333,750

$289,000

$218,500

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Sep-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


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Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 8.1 7.1

6.9 6.1

6.1 5.1

4.6

6.4

6.4

4.6

5.9

5.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

Aug-13

Sep-13

3.8

4.1

3.1

3.1 2.1 1.1 0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 25.1 19.5

20.1

15.1

10.1

12.4 9.1 7.4 5.3

5.1

0.1

Sep-12

Oct-12

6.7

Nov-12

9.3

8.7

Dec-12

7.9

5.6

5.6

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

7.0

Aug-13

5.5

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 250 193

200 141

150 119

146 128

114

93

100

86

85

89

92

Jul-13

Aug-13

100

66 50

0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


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Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 350 305 300 250 200 148

150 100

159

148

197

189

178 148

165

147

96

140 85

50 0

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 25%

18.8%

20%

15%

14.1%

19.2%

20.2% 16.8%

15.6% 11.4%

15.0%

14.9%

Apr-13

May-13

12.8%

14.2%

15.2%

14.6%

10%

5%

0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 18% 16%

14.0%

13.6%

14% 12%

11.5%

11.2%

11.1%

10.5%

10%

15.3%

14.7%

12.1% 10.5%

8.6% 7.1%

6.6%

8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Single-Family Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 96% 94% 91.2%

92%

88%

93.9%

Apr-13

May-13

95.1%

95.0%

94.5% 92.2%

90.9%

89.2%

90%

93.7%

88.5% 86.7%

86.1%

86%

84.5%

84% 82% 80% 78%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 96%

94.6% 93.0%

94%

92.7%

92% 90%

89.4%

90.0%

89.8% 88.5%

91.3%

91.6%

Apr-13

May-13

91.8%

92.7%

89.0%

87.2%

88% 86% 84% 82%

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

A Closer Look at Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Alpine Meadows

$

4,817,000

$

2,637,500

-45%

8

5

-38%

110

76

-31%

$

572,500

$

450,000

-21%

Donner Lake

$

4,605,000

$

4,494,000

-2%

8

8

0%

171

32

-81%

$

450,000

$

492,500

9%

Donner Summit

$

1,991,000

$

6,755,500

239%

5

17

240%

53

56

6%

$

365,000

$

372,500

2%

Martis Valley

$

16,503,281

$

38,544,950

134%

23

32

39%

87

133

53%

$

412,000

$

547,500

33%

North Lake Tahoe

$

51,405,743

$

64,513,485

25%

73

81

11%

101

83

-18%

$

474,900

$

532,900

12%

Northstar

$

8,276,771

$

7,635,275

-8%

8

8

0%

410

128

-69%

$

750,000

$

750,000

0%

Squaw Valley

$

4,806,500

$

11,634,500

142%

5

4

-20%

102

392

284%

$

841,500

$

1,257,750

49%

Tahoe City

$

25,081,563

$

27,820,450

11%

27

28

4%

141

110

-22%

$

568,000

$

737,000

30%

Tahoe Donner

$

39,760,028

$

41,443,200

4%

75

68

-9%

74

59

-20%

$

499,000

$

555,000

11%

Truckee

$

29,560,381

$

50,434,950

71%

54

57

6%

77

99

29%

$

353,000

$

500,000

42%

West Shore

$

44,085,737

$

59,774,850

36%

48

50

4%

153

80

-48%

$

545,000

$

652,500

20%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2013 Sales Volume Q3 '12

Q3 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Median Price Q3 '12

Q3 '13

% change

Alpine Meadows

$

578,000

$

705,000

22%

2

2

0%

26

98

277%

$

289,000

$

352,500

22%

Donner Lake

$

75,000

$

347,803

364%

1

4

300%

424

22

-95%

$

75,000

$

57,402

-23%

Donner Summit

$

217,000

$

210,000

-3%

2

1

-50%

38

203

434%

$

108,500

$

210,000

94%

North Lake Tahoe

$

7,496,500

$

9,499,000

27%

26

25

-4%

114

176

54%

$

204,500

$

292,500

43%

NorthStar

$

8,159,150

$

5,174,500

-37%

14

12

-14%

218

233

7%

$

296,500

$

322,500

9%

Squaw Valley

$

1,666,900

$

4,501,037

170%

6

11

83%

75

371

395%

$

260,000

$

422,500

63%

Tahoe City

$

2,661,500

$

6,167,000

132%

8

16

100%

238

159

-33%

$

259,500

$

284,000

9%

Tahoe Donner

$

3,554,000

$

2,703,500

-24%

15

10

-33%

65

26

-60%

$

220,000

$

228,000

4%

Truckee

$

2,965,975

$

8,170,525

175%

7

13

86%

334

99

-70%

$

300,000

$

579,000

93%

West Shore

$

1,150,000

$

1,350,000

17%

3

2

-33%

437

95

-78%

$

350,000

$

675,000

93%

Source: Terradatum, October 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


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