__MAIN_TEXT__

Page 1

Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015


Table of Contents

Upcoming Mortgage-Regulation Changes Will Affect Both Buyers and Sellers 4 3 Factors Contributing to Bay Area Home Sales Declines

6

Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley 8 East Bay 12 Marin County 16 Napa County 20 San Francisco 24 Silicon Valley 32 Sonoma County 38 Sonoma Valley 42 Lake Tahoe/Truckee 46


Upcoming Mortgage-Regulation Changes Will Affect Both Buyers and Sellers Our industry is approaching a significant change designed to protect consumers from some of the elements that contributed to the 2007-2008 real estate collapse and general recession. Mortgage transactions – both purchase and refinance – originated after Oct. 3, 2015 will be subject to new regulations designed and enforced by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Nearly 70 percent of Pacific Union’s 5,000-plus annual real estate transactions are financed by mortgages. Therefore, the CFPB rule changes will impact most of our buyers and sellers. After Oct. 3, the Good Faith Estimate, Truth in Lending, and HUD-1 disclosures will be replaced with a Loan Estimate (LE) and a Closing Disclosure (CD). These are brand-new forms that first-time homebuyers and sophisticated investors alike must review and sign if using a regulated mortgage product. The practical impact appears in the event there is any change in the fees related to closing. We are somewhat accustomed to fee changes and modifications to the Good Faith Estimate and/or the final closing statement as part of the closing process. Variances of up to 10 percent were generally tolerated before a redisclosure was necessary. The new rules and regulations have zero tolerance for an error or changes in fees, credits, and so on. After Oct. 3, borrowers will be notified if any fees, credits, or costs change via a new CD from the lender, and they will have a mandatory three business days to review them. Clearly this may have an impact on the timely closing of a real estate transaction. These new CFPB rules and regulations are designed to protect the consumer, provide for full clarity in the LE, and achieve consistency between the original LE and the final CD. The fact that the rules and forms are changing means that all parties involved in a transaction have new processes to follow. Buyers and sellers will need to prepare for these new forms and be ready to relax stringent closing dates in the event that a redisclosure must be made. It is quite possible that, even with our finest intentions, the velocity of our closings may slow somewhat early in the fourth quarter. We are conducting multiple training sessions for our real estate professionals to ensure that we continue to provide our clients with exceptional service. Please feel free to review all of the new CFPB rules and regulations with your escrow officer, lender, or Pacific Union real estate professional. Sincerely,

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.


Bay Area 10-Year Overview Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the second quarter of 2015, with a glance back at the 10 preceding second quarters.

Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q2 Homes Sold Q2 '05

Q2 '06

Q2 '07

Q2 '08

Q2 '09

Q2 '10

Q2 '11

Q2 '12

Q2 '13

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

3,414

2,764

1,907

2,542

3,518

3,273

3,142

3,403

2,977

2,939

3,166

EAST BAY

892

814

749

613

556

681

676

810

823

798

800

MARIN COUNTY

799

665

684

494

440

574

555

680

786

773

706

NAPA COUNTY

434

317

279

247

307

336

356

419

374

357

357

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH)

823

781

637

655

557

675

685

726

747

629

620

SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS)

720

589

645

533

370

565

578

740

760

759

665

SILICON VALLEY

894

817

804

629

538

629

752

798

785

755

667

1,791

1,245

1,001

1,143

1,282

1,249

1,175

1,484

1,458

1,287

1,386

SONOMA VALLEY

197

125

113

97

123

136

121

176

174

164

170

LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH)

272

215

183

160

151

200

210

268

291

272

256

LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS)

116

73

82

35

28

62

82

88

71

77

59

REGION CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

SONOMA COUNTY

Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, MLSLSTINGS, TSIERRA, July 6, 2015.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.


3 Factors Contributing to Bay Area Home Sales Declines Demand for San Francisco Bay Area real estate has arguably never been more intense, as highly paid professionals flock to the region to take advantage of an excellent job market. But a look at the number of single-family home sales across the Bay Area for the first half of 2015 shows that, for the most part, units sold have been slowing for the past two years. According to MLS data, single-family home sales dropped in six of Pacific Union’s nine Bay Area regions* in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. When comparing this year’s first-half sales with 2013’s, the pattern becomes even more consistent, with all regions displaying a decrease in the number of homes sold. The two-year declines were largest in western Bay Area counties, where many of the nation’s most desirable jobs are located. (Complete units-sold numbers can be found in the charts below.) So what’s causing the drop in sales at a time when so many people want to own a home in the Bay Area? Pacific Union CEO Mark A. McLaughlin believes that three major factors are at work. “A slim supply of homes for sale and an increase in the number of off-market sales are certainly the largest drivers of the decline in units sold as recorded by the MLS,” he says, “but fewer move-up buyers in the market also impacts sales.”

Inventory Shortages Anyone who follows Bay Area real estate is likely familiar with one of our housing market’s major challenges: fewer homes for sale than people that want to buy them. The situation hasn’t improved over the past year, with the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) for single-family homes sold being lower in June of this year than it was in June 2014 in all of the Bay Area regions in which Pacific Union operates. An MSI between 4.0 and 6.0 months is generally considered to indicate a balanced market, with lower numbers favoring sellers and vice versa. In June, the MSI across the Bay Area ranged from 0.7 in the MidPeninsula region to 2.8 in Napa County, meaning that all of our markets seem to favor sellers. In Silicon Valley and the Mid-Peninsula, where home sales have declined by double-digit percentages from the first half of 2013, a lack of inventory is a key factor slowing sales, according to David Barca, vice president of those two Pacific Union regions. “Certainly, if there was more inventory, there would be more sales,” he says.

An Absence of Move-Up Buyers A lack of homes for sale means that many move-up buyers are sitting on the sidelines, as they are unsure if they will be able to find a new home once they sell their current property. Barca says that in Silicon Valley, one of the nation’s most in-demand housing markets, even buyers with plenty of equity and money are staying put. Both Pacific Union President Patrick Barber and Marin County Region President Brent Thomson cite reduced activity by move-up buyers as a contributing factor to sales declines on both sides of the Golden Gate Bridge. Barca also notes that first-time buyer activity is particularly low in expensive Silicon Valley – except for the young fortunate professionals that play important roles in local tech and social media companies. Otherwise, young first-time buyers may need to rely on parents or relatives who can assist with the down payment.


Another reason that some move-up buyers might be staying put is the impact of federal and state taxes on the seller. The tax law changes of 2003 provide for capital-gains exemptions of up to $250,000 for single sellers and $500,000 for those who are married. Price appreciation over the past few years has been significant in the Bay Area, and the associated tax impact may give some move-up buyers enough motivation to stay in their existing home and remodel it. McLaughlin believes that tightened credit markets could also be hindering move-up buyers, as some would not qualify for as large of a mortgage as they did when they purchased their first homes.

An Abundance of Off-Market Listings While a multiple listing service (MLS) is still the most common way that real estate professionals market their clients’ homes, some clients may decide that the best course of action — for privacy or confidentiality reasons — is to keep the property out of the public eye. According to an analysis of sales data prepared by Pacific Union’s Menlo Park office, private transactions account for about one-third of sales in some San Mateo County enclaves, another factor contributing to the apparent decline in sales volume. In the combined communities of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, and Woodside, off-market sales represented 21 percent of all transactions in the second quarter of 2014. That number increased to 24 percent in the third quarter and 29 percent in the fourth quarter. Private deals rose again in the first quarter of 2015 to 35 percent before relaxing to 30 percent in the second quarter. Off-market deals have likely also played a role in the slippage of home sales in San Francisco. In a 2014 report, the San Francisco Association of Realtors estimated that private transactions represented 11 percent of home sales in 2013, and Barber speculates that that number has likely since increased. Pluses of off-market sales include protecting the seller’s privacy and avoiding the work associated with holding open houses. However, it’s important to note that SFAR found that homes not listed on the MLS in 2013 sold for an average of 17 percent less than those that were. Whether or not to make their home available to the public is a decision that sellers should carefully consider and discuss with their trusted real estate professional.

* For more information on how Pacific Union defines our individual Bay Area regions, please refer to the charts found in our Q2 2015 quarterly report.


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Ellen Anderson Senior Vice President, Contra Costa County 925.743.9330 ellen.anderson@pacunion.com 101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley pacificunion.com

Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley: Q2 Results One word neatly describes second-quarter real estate activity in Pacific Union’s Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley region: phenomenal. Sales reached their highest levels in more than five years, even as inventory remained exceptionally low. Prices rose moderately, with many homes selling for more than their list prices and multiple offers at virtually all price points. (Listing agents have learned to price homes aggressively to generate bidding wars.) New buyers continued to enter the market, many of them spurred by mortgage rates that are still hovering near record lows – and the threat that they won’t remain that way for much longer. Sellers, meanwhile, remained cautious: tempted by rising prices to put their homes on the market but uncertain of their prospects when they too become buyers. Looking Forward: Real estate activity typically slows during the summer months, and the third quarter of 2015 will likely be no different. We expect that Contra Costa home prices will continue to rise moderately through the end of the year, with the region’s attractive homes and excellent schools continuing to woo buyers. A jump in mortgage rates could dampen sales or, conversely, prompt buyers to act quickly and lock in an affordable rate before they climb even higher. Defining Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,300,000 $1,100,000

$975,000

$1,040,000

$1,060,000 $965,000

$995,000

$1,010,000 $1,007,500 $1,000,000 $970,000

$1,092,000

$1,110,000 $1,100,000

$1,185,000

$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6

2.3 2.0

2.1

1.6

1.6

1.6

2.0 1.7

1.6

1.8 1.5

1.4

1.4

Apr-15

May-15

1.2

1.3

1.1

0.6

0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 45

40

40 35 30 25

23

25

27

31

29

31

29 25

21

20

19

19

18

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

15 10 5 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50%

45.6%

45% 40%

37.5% 32.7%

35%

31.6%

29.2%

32.1%

31.6%

33.4%

35.7%

Jan-15

Feb-15

42.5%

40.6%

41.0%

May-15

Jun-15

29.3%

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Apr-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 102.4%

103%

101.7%

102% 101%

100.2%

101.0%

100.6%

100%

99.1%

99.3%

99%

98.1%

98.6%

98.8%

98.3%

98%

101.3%

97.2%

97% 96% 95% 94%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Alamo

$ 105,196,975

$ 124,792,940

19%

65

71

9%

26

26

0%

$ 1,410,000

$ 1,565,000

11%

Blackhawk

$

$

-23%

33

25

-24%

46

36

-22%

$ 1,637,125

$ 1,640,000

0%

Danville

$ 234,767,847

$ 256,558,293

9%

194

205

6%

19

18

-5%

$ 1,097,500

$ 1,200,000

9%

Diablo

$

$

8,808,000

-8%

4

4

0%

30

31

3%

$ 2,507,500

$ 2,295,000

-8%

Lafayette

$ 146,125,230

$ 207,794,325

42%

101

125

24%

19

21

11%

$ 1,200,000

$ 1,431,000

19%

Moraga

$

$

54,737,012

-6%

45

40

-11%

17

14

-18%

$ 1,235,500

$ 1,255,000

2%

Orinda

$ 124,424,414

$ 130,055,325

5%

84

85

1%

23

19

-17%

$ 1,307,500

$ 1,380,000

6%

Pleasant Hill

$

$

70,129,623

6%

103

105

2%

23

20

-13%

$

610,000

$

650,000

7%

San Ramon

$ 229,342,843

$ 233,629,258

2%

234

219

-6%

16

14

-13%

$

929,950

$ 1,022,000

10%

Walnut Creek

$

$ 171,425,104

43%

129

168

30%

19

18

-5%

$

870,000

$

9%

56,718,475

9,541,000

58,253,190

66,144,252

119,493,060

43,416,500

947,000

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.


East Bay Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Pam Hoffman Senior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region 510.339.6460 phoffman@pacunion.com 1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611


East Bay pacificunion.com

East Bay: Q2 Results The second quarter of 2015 was great for sellers in Pacific Union’s East Bay region. Their homes sold quickly and at prices we haven’t seen in many years. Even homes that needed repairs sold with remarkable ease. For homebuyers, however, it was a difficult quarter. When they found a home they liked, buyers had to act fast. They frequently competed with other buyers for the same property and worried that anything less than their best offer would cost them the home they wanted. Buyers needed to make sure they had their financing in place and did their due diligence. There were more homes on the market than in past quarters but the number of new buyers outweighed the increase in inventory. Open houses were mobbed throughout the quarter, with an influx of buyers who were priced out of San Francisco. Asking prices were the starting point for bids. Neighborhoods that score high on walkability ratings and are close to BART stations remain the most popular in the East Bay. Looking Forward: Our advice for third-quarter homebuyers: Write your best offer. If you don’t, someone else will get the house you’re bidding on, and the next one will be even more expensive. Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Alameda; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,000,000 $900,000

$900,000 $840,000

$800,000

$790,000

$834,000

$775,000

$835,000

$826,500

$820,000

Nov-14

Dec-14

$792,500

$925,000

$915,000

$919,000

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

$805,100

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6 2.1

2.1

1.8

1.6 1.6 1.2 1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1 0.9

0.9

0.9

Apr-15

May-15

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.


East Bay pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 40

37

35 30 25

27 21

20

23

23

20

24 21

20

23 20 17

16

15 10 5 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60% 50%

43.6%

45.7%

45.2% 39.6%

40%

44.8%

36.0%

51.6%

51.8%

51.0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

54.4%

43.1% 34.9%

32.5%

30% 20% 10% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 118%

115.7%

116% 114%

111.6%

112% 110%

110.3% 109.2%

115.7%

115.2%

116.3%

111.9% 110.4%

109.3%

109.0% 107.7%

108% 106%

104.2%

104% 102% 100% 98%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.


East Bay pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at the East Bay

East Bay Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Alameda

$

79,838,483

$ 103,441,500

30%

90

105

17%

20

16

-20%

$

804,000

$

890,000

11%

Albany

$

22,982,000

$

31,206,950

36%

28

33

18%

14

18

29%

$

776,000

$

950,000

22%

Berkeley

$ 164,538,775

$ 173,352,490

5%

150

150

0%

20

16

-20%

$

893,500

$ 1,049,500

17%

El Cerrito

$

50,367,288

$

47,530,235

-6%

66

60

-9%

23

17

-26%

$

705,750

$

770,000

9%

Kensington

$

21,498,024

$

17,396,168

-19%

22

18

-18%

21

19

-10%

$

832,630

$

897,500

8%

Oakland*

$ 331,682,382

$ 384,837,834

16%

377

389

3%

23

21

-9%

$

790,000

$

860,000

9%

Piedmont

$ 128,584,725

$ 103,179,378

-20%

65

45

-31%

17

15

-12%

$ 1,740,000

$ 2,150,000

24%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

13,185,003

-53%

69

33

-52%

33

65

97%

$

430,000

$

400,000

-7%

Over $500,000 $ 771,219,374

$ 847,759,552

10%

729

767

5%

20

17

-15%

$

853,000

$

940,000

10%

$500,000 $1 million

$ 345,735,964

-1%

468

443

-5%

19

17

-11%

$

749,500

$

785,000

5%

$ 502,023,588

18%

261

324

24%

21

16

-24%

$ 1,365,000

$ 1,350,000

-1%

Under $500,000

$

28,272,303

$ 347,560,587

Over $1 million $ 423,658,787

Q2 '15 $

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for SFH in the East Bay: Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

Oakland Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Neighborhood

Homes Sold Q2 '14

Average Price

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller

83

102

23%

$1,065,932

$1,089,188

2%

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake

39

34

-13%

$930,629

$1,174,117

26%

Rockridge / Claremont

50

50

0%

$1,398,809

$1,559,888

12%

Glenview/Oakmore

34

30

-12%

$845,764

$921,586

9%

Laurel / Dimond

17

15

-12%

$513,417

$668,550

30%

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights

34

33

-3%

$677,101

$790,910

17%

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline

14

13

-7%

$1,099,464

$1,266,692

15%

Temescal / Piedmont Ave.

11

19

73%

$816,005

$976,000

20%

Source: EBRD, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.


Marin County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Brent Thomson President, Marin County 415.383.1900 brent.thomson@pacunion.com 575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941


Marin County pacificunion.com

Marin County: Q2 Results With a continued shortage of available homes and plenty of eager buyers, sellers controlled the market in Pacific Union’s Marin County region during the second quarter of 2015, as they have for more than a year. Home prices continued to increase throughout the quarter, and multiple offers were the norm – particularly for properties priced fairly and in desirable neighborhoods. It was not uncommon to see buyers offer all cash and waive contingencies to close deals quickly. Competition among buyers was fierce as the real estate market in neighboring San Francisco tightened and tech money continued to move north. Aggressive offers were necessary for buyers to close a deal. Sales in Mill Valley and Kentfield were particularly strong, with many offers climbing far above asking prices. Private purchase agreements – reached without homes ever appearing on a local MLS and without competing bids – were not uncommon. Such off-market deals can simplify the sales process but don’t guarantee the highest possible prices. Looking Forward: Sales typically slow during the summer months as buyers’ thoughts turn to vacations, but the Bay Area’s booming economy will ensure that Marin County homes will continue to generate strong interest from buyers while multiple offers for desirable homes will push prices higher. Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,300,000 $1,100,000

$1,175,000 $1,054,100

$1,051,500

$991,000

$952,500

$1,100,000 $1,008,000

$1,160,000 $990,000

$1,186,125

$1,175,000 $1,106,000

$980,000

$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.1 2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1 1.6

2.6

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.3

Apr-15

May-15

1.4

1.1 0.6 0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.


Marin County pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 80

74

70 60 50

53 46

50

55

52

62

60

59

58

56

47 38

40 30 20 10 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50%

44.4%

45% 40% 35%

43.1% 39.2%

35.7%

35.1% 30.1%

30%

42.4%

27.9%

29.5%

30.3%

30.7% 25.7%

25%

21.9%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 104%

102.4%

102%

100.8%

100% 98%

98.2%

97.4%

97.0%

97.5%

98.1%

98.0%

99.2%

95.6%

95.7%

96%

94.8%

93.7%

94% 92% 90% 88%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.


Marin County pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Marin County

Marin County Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Belvedere

$

23,342,260

$

45,684,000

96%

9

6

-33%

76

939

1136%

$ 2,470,000

$ 7,685,750

211%

Corte Madera

$

33,693,348

$

31,277,000

-7%

27

22

-19%

32

31

-3%

$ 1,249,650

$ 1,316,000

5%

Fairfax

$

22,724,015

$

21,783,875

-4%

27

23

-15%

37

33

-11%

$

$

868,500

10%

Greenbrae

$

33,732,000

$

30,093,500

-11%

22

17

-23%

33

16

-52%

$ 1,475,500

$ 1,700,000

15%

Kentfield

$

55,690,035

$

66,410,500

19%

27

24

-11%

37

21

-43%

$ 1,800,000

$ 2,275,000

26%

Larkspur

$

38,797,350

$

26,614,323

-31%

26

18

-31%

34

32

-6%

$ 1,347,500

$ 1,398,000

4%

Mill Valley

$ 198,353,722

$ 223,146,172

12%

121

122

1%

40

36

-10%

$ 1,350,000

$ 1,613,250

20%

Novato

$ 133,815,944

$ 156,087,164

17%

162

177

9%

47

48

2%

$

$

800,000

5%

Ross

$

59,131,400

$

28,120,000

-52%

17

8

-53%

60

37

-38%

$ 3,200,000

$ 3,450,000

8%

San Anselmo

$

79,967,205

$

78,090,965

-2%

68

61

-10%

56

40

-29%

$

950,000

$ 1,112,000

17%

San Rafael

$ 171,704,995

$ 178,333,442

4%

167

145

-13%

39

41

5%

$

858,000

$

980,000

14%

Sausalito

$

38,225,300

$

34,350,250

-10%

20

18

-10%

44

91

107%

$ 1,614,150

$ 1,830,000

13%

Tiburon

$ 127,701,500

$

94,907,700

-26%

40

35

-13%

133

77

-42%

$ 3,100,000

$ 2,545,000

-18%

789,000

762,500

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.


Napa County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Linda Carroll Regional Executive, Napa County 707.251.8805 linda.carroll@pacunion.com 944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559


Napa County pacificunion.com

Napa County: Q2 Results Sales in Pacific Union’s Napa County region were off the charts at all price points in the second quarter of 2015. April and May were busy, and June even more so, as buyers scoured the county for homes. There was also a huge demand for wineries and vineyards. Prices were relatively flat for high-end homes, but those selling for below $800,000 have seen solid price increases over the past year. Multiple offers were common but were more dependent on a home’s condition and list price than seen in previous quarters – the latest sign that real estate activity is returning to normalcy after seven years of boom, bust, and recovery. Sellers don’t dictate the market anymore, and second-quarter buyers were better prepared and more selective. They did their homework, got their financing in order, and knew what they were willing to spend and what they could afford. Low mortgage rates helped many first-time buyers enter the busy market. Looking Forward: We expect June’s robust sales activity to continue well into July. August will likely be slower, as families prepare for the upcoming school year, but look for another pickup by mid-September. Throughout the remainder of the year, desirable homes that are fairly priced will continue to attract buyers. Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

Median Sales Price $700,000 $600,000

$527,000

$559,750

$535,000

$510,000

$500,000

$634,000

$610,000

$602,500

$592,000

$522,500

$590,000 $604,500

$497,000 $492,000

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 6.1

5.4

5.1 4.3 4.1

3.4

3.8

4.1

4.5 3.4

3.8

3.4

3.1

3.2 2.6

2.9

2.8

May-15

Jun-15

2.1 1.1 0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.


Napa County pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 114

120 99

100 80

90 77

81

87

100 91

94

81

71

71

72

May-15

Jun-15

60 40 20 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 35% 28.7%

30%

26.1%

20%

26.4%

26.0%

26.6%

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

23.2%

25% 19.1% 15.8%

16.1%

Jul-14

Aug-14

16.3%

17.3%

Sep-14

Oct-14

17.7% 15.9%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98% 96%

95.1% 93.5%

94%

93.4%

94.8%

94.5%

92.5%

92% 90%

96.6%

95.9%

95.8%

91.2%

91.2%

Dec-14

Jan-15

92.0%

88.6%

88% 86% 84%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.


Napa County pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Napa County

Napa County Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

American Canyon

$

17,563,400

$

15,983,900

-9%

44

36

-18%

42

46

10%

$

397,750

$

445,000

12%

Angwin

$

2,780,000

$

3,065,000

10%

3

4

33%

78

130

67%

$

395,000

$

747,500

89%

Calistoga

$

17,876,000

$

17,883,700

0%

16

18

13%

124

88

-29%

$

672,500

$

727,000

8%

Napa

$ 171,199,020

$ 173,729,705

1%

250

253

1%

68

67

-1%

$

529,700

$

600,000

13%

St. Helena

$

68,368,408

$

47,672,312

-30%

36

33

-8%

125

180

44%

$ 1,095,579

$

885,000

-19%

Yountville

$

8,090,000

$

18,466,999

128%

8

9

13%

24

131

446%

$ 1,032,500

$

960,000

-7%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Under $500,000

$

58,882,385

$

43,968,955

-25%

154

113

-27%

64

63

-2%

$

394,500

$

412,000

4%

$500,000 $999,999

$

99,146,760

$ 129,857,599

31%

146

190

30%

76

77

1%

$

650,000

$

658,400

1%

$1 million - $3 million

$

71,765,683

$

72,556,062

1%

47

49

4%

72

112

56%

$ 1,340,000

$ 1,350,000

1%

Over $3 million $

55,632,000

$

30,523,000

-45%

10

5

-50%

117

131

12%

$ 5,028,500

$ 5,650,000

12%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.


San Francisco Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Patrick Barber President 415.929.7100 patrick.barber@pacunion.com 1699 Van Ness Avenue | San Francisco, CA 94109


San Francisco pacificunion.com

San Francisco: Q2 Results San Francisco’s red-hot real estate market continued to sizzle during the second quarter of 2015. It was a fantastic market for sellers: Available single-family homes and condominiums were in short supply at all prices ranges, and a substantial majority of properties for sale received multiple offers. The result? Most sales prices topped asking prices, in some cases by wide margins. Typical of this was a San Francisco home offered at $850,000 that sold for $1.15 million. Although San Francisco remains a challenging market for buyers, there still were deals to be found – particularly with the help of a savvy real estate professional. But buyers had to move fast, as it wasn’t uncommon to see attractive, fairly priced properties go under contract just days after appearing on the market. Sellers, meanwhile, faced a dilemma: Putting their homes on the market instantly placed them in the same position as buyers – scrambling to find their next home. The solution for many sellers was to negotiate a rent-back agreement with the buyer, giving them extra time to search for a new home. Looking Forward: Sales typically ease up during the summer, but don’t mistake a less-frenetic pace for a sea change in the market. With a booming local economy and interest rates still near record lows, there will be no shortage of San Francisco buyers for the foreseeable future.

Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price $1,500,000 $1,300,000 $1,100,000

$1,190,000

$1,175,000 $1,082,000 $971,500

$1,040,000

$1,250,000 $1,128,500

$1,075,000

$1,320,000

$1,400,000

$1,342,500

$1,133,000 $975,000

$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $1,300,000 $1,100,000

$1,040,000 $960,000

$980,000

$950,000

$1,025,000 $1,004,000 $960,012

$900,000

$1,100,000

$1,115,000

$1,150,000 $1,074,500

$1,125,000

$885,000

$700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.1 2.6

2.3

2.1 2.1

1.9 1.6

1.6

2.5

1.7 1.3

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.4

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

0.9

0.6 0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6 2.2 2.1

1.6

1.8

2.1

1.8

1.6 1.4

1.4

1.5 1.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 50

47

45

39

40 35 30

27

30

29

31

31

30

27

27

26

Mar-15

Apr-15

25

29 24

20 15 10 5 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 60 50 40

54

50

35

39 33

33

37

36 29

30

31

34

32 26

20 10 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

45% 40%

35.6%

35%

34.9%

32.5%

34.6%

38.7%

42.1%

38.5% 32.6%

30%

28.2%

30.0%

Jan-15

Feb-15

38.8%

41.9% 37.0%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50%

45.2%

45% 40%

37.5%

35%

37.1% 32.9%

39.1% 36.2%

41.5%

39.1%

42.7%

40.5%

35.3% 31.1%

30.9%

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 116% 113.7%

114% 112%

112.7% 110.3%

110%

111.0% 109.7%

109.0%

109.8%

109.9%

109.6%

109.7% 107.2%

108%

105.3%

106%

104.8%

104% 102% 100%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 112% 109.7%

110% 108%

106.7%

108.4%

107.6% 105.9%

105.2%

106%

106.8% 105.6%

103.9%

104%

109.2%

107.2%

103.3% 101.4%

102% 100% 98% 96%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Delving into San Francisco’s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods. District 1:

Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.

District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights. District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview. District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park. District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks. District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition. District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights. District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,

Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.

District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach,

South of Market, Yerba Buena.

District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood,

Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

District 1

$

106,020,175

$

142,062,688

34%

58

66

14%

20

18

-10%

District 2

$

126,366,648

$

146,642,227

16%

111

117

5%

28

27

-4%

District 3

$

41,875,000

$

34,180,888

-18%

44

36

-18%

26

37

District 4

$

109,033,750

$

150,829,979

38%

75

90

20%

30

District 5

$

183,768,608

$

207,403,851

13%

87

85

-2%

District 6

$

26,537,240

$

19,176,000

-28%

11

8

District 7

$

156,513,300

$

213,909,814

37%

34

District 8

$

34,901,250

$

18,127,000

-48%

District 9

$

66,946,875

$

98,250,560

District 10

$

103,107,932

$

95,214,001

Median Price Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

1,900,500

19%

$ 1,000,000

$ 1,175,000

18%

42%

$

$

22

-27%

21

23

-27%

21

30

-12%

8

7

47%

56

-8%

145

$

1,602,500

$

892,500

6%

$ 1,375,000

$ 1,442,500

5%

10%

$

$

29

38%

45

30

-13%

86

62

11%

119

-18%

840,750

2,150,000

11%

$ 2,725,000

$ 1,821,500

-33%

-33%

$

$

4,873,750

32%

17

-80%

$ 3,191,000

$ 2,222,000

-30%

26

23

-12%

$

1,170,000

$

1,472,500

26%

35

35

0%

$

690,000

$

780,000

13%

1,935,000

3,700,000

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

District 1

$

41,600,500

$

35,122,300

-16%

36

30

-17%

31

24

-23%

$

1,000,000

District 2

$

17,250,888

$

13,423,000

-22%

16

11

-31%

28

21

-25%

$

District 3

$

6,238,000

$

5,615,000

-10%

10

9

-10%

27

21

-22%

District 4

$

10,908,125

$

10,217,000

-6%

18

12

-33%

22

32

District 5

$

127,927,282

$

174,019,887

36%

110

130

18%

24

District 6

$

68,069,671

$

64,675,500

-5%

66

56

-15%

District 7

$

132,686,514

$

89,262,201

-33%

89

51

District 8

$

138,670,269

$

133,739,714

-4%

117

District 9

$

322,769,661

$

315,835,986

-2%

District 10

$

5,026,869

$

12,574,500

150%

Q2 '15

% change

1,206,500

21%

927,500

$ 1,350,000

46%

$

549,500

$

615,000

12%

45%

$

574,500

$

840,000

46%

20

-17%

$

1,137,500

$

1,288,000

13%

32

23

-28%

$

969,000

$ 1,135,000

17%

-43%

26

23

-12%

$

1,300,000

$

1,540,000

18%

99

-15%

41

36

-12%

$

901,000

$ 1,075,000

19%

287

249

-13%

31

38

23%

$

920,000

$

1,050,000

14%

10

18

80%

59

54

-8%

$

541,500

$

732,500

35%

$

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Under $1 million

$

195,963,030

$

135,312,201

-31%

261

173

-34%

34

36

6%

$

$1 million - $3 million

$

498,568,173

$

634,016,993

27%

312

385

23%

23

22

-4%

Over $3 million $

260,539,575

$

356,467,814

37%

56

62

11%

40

28

-30%

Q2 '15

% change

800,000

7%

$ 1,462,500

$ 1,500,000

3%

$

$

750,000

3,690,000

$

4,137,500

12%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Under $1 million

$

287,601,419

$

210,918,200

-27%

399

272

-32%

35

34

-3%

$

$1 million - $2 million

$

400,835,564

$

451,679,811

13%

295

327

11%

25

26

4%

Over $2 million $

182,710,796

$

191,887,077

5%

65

66

2%

35

44

26%

Q2 '15

% change

810,000

8%

$ 1,315,000

$ 1,345,000

2%

$

$

9%

750,000

2,500,000

$

2,719,650

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.


Silicon Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

David Barca Vice President, Silicon Valley 650.314.7200 dbarca@pacunion.com 1706 El Camino Real, Suite 220 | Menlo Park CA 94025


Silicon Valley pacificunion.com

Silicon Valley: Q2 Results Pacific Union’s Silicon Valley region started the second quarter with a burst of activity – an extraordinary amount of closings across all submarkets in April – followed by a more moderate sales pace in May and a bit slower still in June. Inventory levels remained tight throughout the quarter – as they have all year, in fact – while home prices continued rising. The hottest-selling price point in the region was for homes priced between $2 million and $3 million. Most sellers received multiple offers for their properties, but usually only two or three, not the 10 or 15 offers that were typical a year ago. Buyers seemed to have greater negotiating room than in the past several years, while many sellers still enjoyed healthy price premiums. One-third of the region’s sales were private purchase agreements, reached without the homes ever appearing on a local MLS and without competing bids. Such agreements can simplify the sales process, but they don’t guarantee the highest possible prices. Looking Forward: The summer months typically see a slowdown in sales activity in Silicon Valley, but we expect the number of available homes to pick up in the third quarter, which could bring in the buyers. Defining Silicon Valley: Our real estate markets in the Silicon Valley region include the cities and towns of Atherton, Los Altos (excluding county area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities. Defining the Mid-Peninsula: Our real estate markets in the Mid-Peninsula subregion include the cities of Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area). Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $3,100,000 $2,600,000 $2,430,000 $2,400,000

$2,558,000 $2,450,000 $2,450,000

$2,815,500 $2,498,000

$2,850,000 $2,800,000 $2,665,000

$2,625,000

$2,700,000

$2,399,100

$2,100,000 $1,600,000 $1,100,000 $600,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6

2.2

2.3

2.1

1.6

1.9 1.5

1.6

1.6 1.2

1.3

1.4 1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

1.1

0.6

0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these SIlicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.


Silicon Valley pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 45

41

40

37

35

31

30 25

37

27

25

23

28

25

26 19

20

21

22

15 10 5 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

45.6%

44.4%

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 45%

39.5%

40% 35%

33.9%

30.3%

33.3%

42.5%

38.7%

34.1% 30.3%

30%

37.1%

30.8% 25.9%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

106.0%

106.1%

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 108% 105.5%

106% 104%

106.5% 104.0%

103.8%

103.2%

102.3% 101.0%

102%

104.8%

101.9%

100%

99.1%

99.5%

98% 96% 94%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.


Silicon Valley pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Silicon Valley

Silicon Valley Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Atherton

$

193,393,003

$

192,172,000

-1%

34

28

-18%

44

44

0%

$

Los Altos*

$

276,578,624

$

300,441,479

9%

104

100

-4%

14

13

-7%

Los Altos Hills

$

106,882,888

$

126,738,888

19%

27

31

15%

35

33

Menlo Park**

$

212,798,075

$

208,725,500

-2%

87

90

3%

15

Palo Alto

$

368,822,674

$

351,550,574

-5%

133

109

-18%

Portola Valley

$

86,248,000

$

81,078,000

-6%

32

25

Woodside

$

113,993,500

$

129,027,279

13%

31

31

Q2 '15

% change

5,150,000

30%

$ 2,350,000

$ 2,713,000

15%

-6%

$

$

3,700,000

12%

14

-7%

$ 2,040,000

$ 2,004,000

-2%

15

14

-7%

$

$

2,699,000

16%

-22%

21

16

-24%

$ 2,350,000

$ 2,625,000

12%

0%

42

56

33%

$ 2,517,000

$ 2,500,000

-1%

3,953,502

3,300,000

2,320,000

$

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected Silicon Valley cities. *Excludes County area **Excludes east of U.S. 101


Mid-Peninsula pacificunion.com

Median Sales Price $1,900,000 $1,675,700

$1,700,000 $1,500,000 $1,300,000

$1,436,500 $1,341,000

$1,350,000 $1,350,000 $1,328,000 $1,307,500

$1,462,500

$1,590,000 $1,490,000

$1,688,000

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

$1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6 2.2 2.1

1.6

1.9

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

21

21

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Average Days on the Market 50

47

45 40 33

35 30

26

25

25 20

32

30

28

28

16

20 14

15 10 5 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).


Mid-Peninsula pacificunion.com

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60%

54.3%

50%

44.9%

42.1%

39.0%

40%

39.0%

53.0%

52.5%

48.0% 42.7%

42.0% 32.7%

31.7% 30%

26.3%

20% 10% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 115% 110.6% 110%

105%

103.9% 101.4%

101.2%

99.8%

100%

101.1%

100.7%

107.8%

107.3%

Mar-15

Apr-15

106.5%

102.7%

101.2% 97.5%

95%

90%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

A Closer Look at the Mid-Peninsula Mid-Peninsula Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Burlingame*

$

154,581,888

$

115,454,657

-25%

84

53

-37%

16

19

19%

$ 1,716,500

$ 2,000,000

17%

Hillsborough

$

177,656,458

$

133,932,366

-25%

47

31

-34%

54

28

-48%

$ 3,080,000

$ 4,050,000

31%

San Mateo**

$

215,178,406

$

248,589,453

16%

176

169

-4%

18

17

-6%

$ 1,068,500

$ 1,345,000

26%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in selected San Mateo County cities. * Excludes Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center ** Excludes the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area


Sonoma County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Rick Laws Senior Vice President, Sonoma County 707.547.3800 rick.laws@pacunion.com 3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403


Sonoma County pacificunion.com

Sonoma County: Q2 Results After a slow first quarter, home sales picked up in Pacific Union’s Sonoma County region during the second quarter. The number of available homes rose above first-quarter levels but still lagged behind totals recorded one year earlier. The tight supply kept buyers scrambling and guaranteed multiple offers for the most attractive homes on the market, helping to drive the median sales price up moderately. Fewer lower-priced homes were available than in past quarters: The short sales and foreclosures that dominated the market several years ago have all been sold, and price appreciation moved the market higher. Homes selling for $900,000 to $2 million had the highest increase in sales during the second quarter, while the number of homes priced below $400,000 shrunk by almost one-half. Looking Forward: July and August typically see fewer sales, but we expect real estate activity to once again pick up by mid-September. Sellers will still have the upper hand in the third quarter, but Sonoma County will continue to move toward a more balanced market, and buyers will have increased negotiating room. Home shoppers will be plentiful, spurred by the probability of rising mortgage rates. Sellers who put their homes on the market at a fair price will likely see multiple offers and a quick sale. Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

Median Sales Price $600,000 $550,000 $500,000

$495,000

$507,000 $475,000

$496,000

$490,000

Sep-14

Oct-14

$481,250

$515,000

$479,000

$492,000

$510,000

$536,000

$545,000

Apr-15

May-15

$550,000

$450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.1

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.3 1.8

1.6

1.6

1.9 1.6

1.1 0.6 0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.


Sonoma County pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 100

89

90 80 70 60

89

80

57

62

61

Jul-14

Aug-14

67

68

73 66

63 56

57

50 40 30 20 10 0

Jun-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 45% 40% 35% 30%

29.9%

28.9%

27.8%

26.3%

29.1%

28.9%

29.9%

31.2%

Jan-15

Feb-15

36.6%

37.3%

Mar-15

Apr-15

35.4%

38.3%

24.1%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 101%

99.6%

100% 99%

98.4%

98%

97.6% 96.9%

97%

99.4%

98.5% 96.6%

97.0%

96.5% 95.4%

96% 95%

95.0%

95.3%

Jan-15

Feb-15

93.8%

94% 93% 92% 91% 90%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.


Sonoma County pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Sonoma County

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Healdsburg

$

45,839,408

$

69,900,625

52%

47

57

21%

55

78

42%

$

615,000

$

917,500

49%

Petaluma

$

85,154,300

$ 107,510,884

26%

139

165

19%

47

53

13%

$

555,000

$

600,000

8%

Rohnert Park

$

31,885,738

$

37,972,800

19%

74

79

7%

44

40

-9%

$

420,000

$

480,000

14%

Santa Rosa

$ 285,787,316

$ 348,639,271

22%

528

597

13%

56

54

-4%

$

440,000

$

499,500

14%

Sebastopol

$

48,417,055

$

45,598,800

-6%

66

54

-18%

63

63

0%

$

690,000

$

717,500

4%

Windsor

$

41,626,762

$

51,150,375

23%

82

80

-2%

81

48

-41%

$

470,000

$

550,500

17%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Under $1 million

$ 595,644,797

$ 671,850,012

13%

1184

1,224

3%

60

55

-8%

$

$1 million and over

$ 173,387,025

$ 266,778,802

54%

103

162

57%

87

88

1%

$ 1,350,000

460,000

Q2 '15

% change

515,000

12%

$ 1,294,500

-4%

$

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.


Sonoma Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Jill Silvas Regional Executive, Sonoma Valley 707.939.9500 jill.silvas@pacunion.com 135 West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com

Sonoma Valley: Q1 Results Three months ago we predicted that the Sonoma Valley real estate market would be “unbelievably busy” in the second quarter of 2015, and that turned out to be an accurate projection. Sales were phenomenal, and sellers who heeded our advice and put their properties on the market early were rewarded with multiple offers and quick sales, often above the asking price. The median sales price jumped higher, as did the pace of sales. The second quarter was good for sellers, although late in the quarter we also saw the beginning of some pushback from buyers. For example, several transactions that went into contract immediately at well above asking prices were canceled shortly after escrow was opened. Other buyers made substantial requests for repairs, concessions, or price reductions once their due-diligence period was complete and then canceled well into the transaction because sellers would not comply with their requests. Could it be that we are starting to see a transition into a more balanced market? Time will tell. Looking Forward: We typically see some fluctuation in the market in the third quarter. Summer vacations, the start of the school year, and the Wine Country grape harvest can all impact real estate activity in Sonoma Valley. However, with interest rates and Bay Area unemployment both at extremely low levels, we believe this strong market will last well into 2016. Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

Median Sales Price $800,000 $700,000 $600,000

$756,000

$750,000 $697,500

$665,000 $580,250

$555,000

$606,250

$589,500

$525,000

$545,000

$540,000

Jan-15

Feb-15

$632,000

$572,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 4.1 3.6

3.5

3.3 3.0

3.1 2.6

3.3

3.1

2.8

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.2 1.9

1.6

1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 120 96

100 80 60

83

77 61

77

82

89 76 64

56

66 53

48

40 20 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.

Â

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 33.1%

35% 30.6% 30%

26.9%

25.1%

25%

26.6%

32.1%

30.1%

29.3%

27.4%

25.8%

22.6%

21.9%

20%

17.0%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley. Â

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 104% 102%

101.6%

100.5%

100% 98%

97.5%

96.7% 95.1%

96% 94%

92.5%

93.5%

93.5%

Oct-14

Nov-14

94.7%

95.2%

96.3%

96.7%

95.4%

92% 90% 88% 86%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Sonoma Valley

Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Glen Ellen

$

17,756,900

$

6,865,375

-61%

14

8

-43%

62

80

29%

$ 1,005,500

$

694,188

-31%

Kenwood

$

9,914,000

$

7,560,500

-24%

7

6

-14%

202

58

-71%

$ 1,260,000

$ 1,081,250

-14%

Sonoma

$ 105,360,425

$ 144,188,804

37%

143

156

9%

54

54

0%

$

$

14%

569,000

650,000

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2015

Sally Gardner Regional Executive, Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 | Squaw Valley 530.584.6282 sally.gardner@pacunion.com


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Lake Tahoe/Truckee: Q2 Results Pacific Union’s Lake Tahoe/Truckee region is mostly a vacation-home market, so it’s no surprise that sales depend heavily on tourism. And with precious little snow amid California’s drought, tourist numbers have been down significantly. The result? Sales volume in the second quarter of 2015 was down from the levels posted one year earlier. There were several bright spots, however. Sales were brisk in communities near Lake Tahoe, and many sellers in the region were flexible in pricing and eager to make a deal. Also, construction resumed in several developments – the first major residential building activity in quite a few years outside of Martis Camp, Schaffer’s Mill, and Gray’s Crossing. By the end of the second quarter, sales started climbing again as winter activities gave way to summer in the Sierras, bringing a new round of visitors from the Bay Area and Sacramento. Looking Forward: The summer months will be busy in beautiful Lake Tahoe/Truckee, bringing plenty of new buyers to the region. Home prices in many areas of Lake Tahoe still haven’t reached their prerecession peaks, so there will be plenty of bargains to be found. Looking to the fourth quarter and beyond, we are heartened by numerous forecasts of an El Nino winter ahead, bringing welcome snow (and tourists) to the Sierras, and plenty of rain elsewhere in the state. Defining Lake Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes and condominiums in these communities.

Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price $800,000

$740,000

$700,000 $600,000

$725,000

$665,000 $595,000

$589,000

$607,342

$611,250

$572,000

$529,277

$650,000 $535,000

$530,500

Apr-15

May-15

$560,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $500,000 $445,000

$450,000

$416,000

$350,000

$392,500

$385,000

$400,000 $350,000

$345,000

$389,000

$370,250

$359,500

$362,500 $339,000

$290,000

$300,000

$281,000

$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Median sales price for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 12.1 10.1

11.0

8.7

8.1

7.4

8.0

7.1 6.4

6.0

6.1

5.1

8.0 6.1

6.7

6.2

4.6

4.1 2.1 0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 25.1 19.2

20.1 14.5

15.1 10.6 10.1

8.6

9.9 7.0

6.5

6.2

6.2

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

12.9

11.3 9.3

9.3

5.1

0.1

Jun-14

Jul-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 200

188

180 160

143

140

127

120 89

100 80

72

66

60

118

110

102

88

83 60

54

40 20 0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 250 197

200

154 150

100

127

120

122

138 112

101

100

83

73 53

44

50

0

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 18% 15.3%

16% 14%

12.4%

13.0%

10.9%

12% 10%

12.3%

13.6%

12.4%

12.9%

13.1%

Feb-15

Mar-15

14.0% 11.9%

10.2%

8.5%

8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 16%

14.5%

13.7%

14%

11.9%

11.7%

12% 10%

9.6%

9.1%

9.7%

9.3%

7.9%

8%

7.0%

6.6%

6.3%

4.7%

6% 4% 2% 0%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98% 96%

95.6%

96.2%

96.3%

95.2%

94.9% 93.3%

94%

92.1%

91.9%

92%

90.9%

91.5%

89.8%

90%

88.6%

88.2%

88% 86% 84%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98%

96.0%

96.7%

96%

96.8%

96.4% 94.3%

94.1%

94%

94.3%

94.1%

92.7% 91.3%

92% 90%

89.0%

88%

87.6%

87.3%

Nov-14

Dec-14

86% 84% 82%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Lake Tahoe/Truckee Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Median Price Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Alpine Meadows

$

4,270,000

$

2,682,600

-37%

5

4

-20%

127

48

-62%

$

545,000

$

673,800

24%

Donner Lake

$

10,821,000

$

5,647,180

-48%

14

8

-43%

100

154

54%

$

532,500

$

562,500

6%

Donner Summit

$

6,396,300

$

5,753,625

-10%

10

12

20%

118

98

-17%

$

542,500

$

457,000

-16%

Martis Valley

$

48,118,709

$

22,662,000

-53%

25

22

-12%

122

53

-57%

$ 1,735,000

$

492,000

-72%

North Lake Tahoe

$

42,773,450

$

44,563,612

4%

55

60

9%

94

111

18%

$

515,000

$

560,000

9%

Northstar

$

5,869,000

$

4,727,500

-19%

6

6

0%

376

167

-56%

$

839,500

$

745,000

-11%

Squaw Valley

$

8,288,000

$

2,219,000

-73%

4

3

-25%

35

214

511%

$

2,026,500

$

680,000

-66%

Tahoe City

$

14,453,700

$

13,294,500

-8%

16

17

6%

103

38

-63%

$

552,750

$

675,000

22%

Tahoe Donner

$

32,865,350

$

31,943,300

-3%

51

51

0%

27

55

104%

$

595,000

$

555,000

-7%

Truckee

$

59,333,922

$

37,732,051

-36%

48

51

6%

77

52

-32%

$

524,639

$

477,000

-9%

West Shore

$

36,194,426

$

14,794,000

-59%

38

22

-42%

146

103

-29%

$

508,250

$

567,500

12%

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Sales Volume Q2 '14

Q2 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

Q2 '15

% change

Q2 '14

-41%

3

2

-33%

46

115

150%

$

334,000

$

Q2 '15

% change

Alpine Meadows

$

1,009,000

$

Donner Lake

$

55,000

$

-

n/a

1

0

n/a

76

0

n/a

$

55,000

$

-

n/a

Donner Summit

$

115,000

$

-

n/a

1

0

n/a

274

0

n/a

$

115,000

$

-

n/a

North Lake Tahoe

$

9,257,969

$

7,828,425

-15%

21

14

-33%

88

44

-50%

$

350,000

$

309,500

-12%

Northstar

$

6,512,340

$

4,387,250

-33%

13

11

-15%

50

63

26%

$

350,000

$

325,000

-7%

Squaw Valley

$

4,927,000

$

1,815,000

-63%

8

4

-50%

224

249

11%

$

611,500

$

290,000

-53%

Tahoe City

$

3,150,100

$

5,685,425

80%

7

8

14%

51

49

-4%

$

393,000

$

349,500

-11%

Tahoe Donner

$

3,792,970

$

2,525,000

-33%

15

9

-40%

53

50

-6%

$

256,000

$

292,000

14%

Truckee

$

3,863,000

$

6,027,808

56%

8

11

38%

99

78

-21%

$

439,500

$

499,000

14%

West Shore

$

n/a

0

0

n/a

0

0

n/a

$

-

$

595,000

-

-

$

297,500

-

-11%

n/a

Source: Terradatum, July 6, 2015. Data is for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Follow Pacific Union

pacificunion.com

Profile for Pacific Union

Pacific Union Q2 2015 Market Report  

Pacific Union Q2 2015 Market Report

Pacific Union Q2 2015 Market Report  

Pacific Union Q2 2015 Market Report