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Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016


Table of Contents

Beyond the Clouds: Economic Sun Rays Continue to Keep Bay Area Warm 4 Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley 8 East Bay 12 Marin County 16 Napa County 20 San Francisco 24 Silicon Valley 32 Sonoma County 38 Sonoma Valley 42 Lake Tahoe/Truckee 46


Bay Area 10-Year Overview Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the first quarter of 2016, with a glance back at the 10 preceding first quarters.

Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q1 Homes Sold Q1 '06

Q1 '07

Q1 '08

Q1 '09

Q1 '10

Q1 '11

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Q1 '14

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

2,063

1,684

1,310

2,892

2,288

2,457

2,553

2,290

1,916

2,011

1,939

EAST BAY

535

445

338

315

365

469

498

439

430

381

378

MARIN COUNTY

410

427

281

223

349

385

434

431

413

381

334

NAPA COUNTY

245

220

140

244

263

290

313

268

212

258

235

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH)

494

461

221

333

468

501

535

499

468

428

352

SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS)

484

458

319

216

372

479

485

507

548

476

432

SILICON VALLEY

485

491

329

238

391

411

445

432

393

366

312

1,037

885

621

1,028

921

978

1,156

979

893

807

867

97

81

75

84

88

103

114

104

95

85

92

133

147

132

122

167

182

220

223

180

197

228

59

46

34

18

64

52

50

61

56

56

68

REGION CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

SONOMA COUNTY SONOMA VALLEY LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH) LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS)

Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, MLSLSTINGS, TSIERRA, April 6, 2016.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.


Beyond the Clouds:

Economic Sun Rays Continue to Keep Bay Area Warm

By Selma Hepp, Pacific Union Chief Economist and Vice President of Business Intelligence THE U.S. ECONOMY IS SOLIDLY MARCHING FORWARD To say that we live in the age of information overload is an understatement. If you are not entrenched in economic data, it may be difficult to see the forest from the trees by reading daily news stories. However, after a shaky start to this year, we can now say with some level of certainty that we are on the other side of the tumultuous tunnel and that the economic prospects for 2016 are looking up. The encouraging signs are both national and international. Nationally, it’s all about jobs. Job growth continues at an exceptional pace; according to the latest U.S. Labor Department survey on new jobs and turnovers, more people – 5.4 million – got a new job in February than in any month since before the recession. Also, we are finally seeing broader improvements in wages, which drive consumption and the service sector. Consequently, industries and companies relying on domestic consumers are doing well. Businesses affected by a strong dollar and weaker international demand are not doing as well. Internationally, however, the storm has finally subsided. Better news is coming from U.S. trading partners, and oil prices seem to have stabilized. Emerging markets appeared to have weathered the storm, and capital volatility seems to be settling down.

THE BAY AREA IS THE JOB DYNAMO The Bay Area has been the shining star in the nation’s economic recovery. The region’s economic strength originates from the exceptional job growth over the last four years, and the Bay Area still outperforms the rest of the country. Over the past year, some 120,000 jobs were created locally, most in technology and other high-income sectors. An important advantage to tech-sector jobs is that they have a high multiplier rate, meaning that their economic spillover to local economies is higher than most other types of jobs. Job growth has also been the impetus for the remarkable housing-market recovery and the ensuing home price appreciation that we have seen across the region. Jobs are critical to Bay Area housing markets, and growth is still happening. In fact, 2015 was the strongest year of regional job growth since the recovery started. And while 2016 started slower, it still may be the second-best post-recession year if hiring continues at its current pace. However, the theme that permeates all sectors of the economy is normalization, a natural part of economic cycles. Normalization reflects that markets are maturing and relieves the fears of frothing that have recently concerned many.


Another critical component to the Bay Area’s economy is that it is an innovation hub and relies heavily on venture capital (VC). While 2015 was the strongest year of investment dollars coming into Silicon Valley since the dot-com collapse, the drop in investments in the last quarter of the year caused some concerns over future availability of venture funds. Various reports, however, suggest no lack of VC activity, and some even show that VC firms are raising money at the highest rate in more than 15 years. Interestingly, though, VC activity is spreading geographically, and the Bay Area lost some of its edge coming into 2016. A recent survey of technology and life-sciences executives in the Bay Area indicates that capital is tightening and that funders are in search of a more balanced environment, with a focus on fundamentals. Investors are focusing on startups in more mature stages of development. This may be a good thing, as it removes some of the volatility in expectations. And while overall expectations are going through a shortterm readjustment, the survey suggests that the optimism among the executives about the long-term future of innovation is still strong.

DID THE STOCK MARKET’S VOLATILITY LEAVE A BAD TASTE WITH CONSUMERS? Given the first-quarter stock-market and economic volatility and fears on its impact on housing markets, we surveyed Pacific Union real estate professionals to gauge how these changes are impacting their clients’ decisions to buy or sell a home. Overall, clients’ decision to buy or sell a home were only modestly more influenced (55 percent) than not (45 percent) due to first-quarter volatility. Furthermore, a limited share of clients (19 percent) make decisions to buy or sell a home based the rate of venture-capital investment. Only a very small share — 5 percent — of clients completely exited the housing market due to volatility. With the majority of buyers and sellers employed in the tech industry and given the large impact that IPOs can have on local housing markets, it is also interesting to see what share of clients actually worked for a startup that recently went public. On average, about 10 percent of clients worked for such a startup. Half of the Pacific Union professionals who responded didn’t have any clients in the IPO world, and a quarter had at least 20 percent or more. Yet, stock options, with or without an IPO, did not have a marked impact on how most recent transactions were financed. Almost two in five transactions were all-cash deals, where personal and family wealth, along with proceeds of previous real estate sales, were the major sources of cash (see Figure 1). Stock options were only the source of money in only 1 percent of all-cash transactions (see Figure 2). Of buyers with a mortgage, about one-third of down payments came from savings, another quarter from personal wealth, and another fifth from proceed of previous real estate sale. Family wealth helped in 13 percent of transactions. Stock options and IPOs contributed to down payments in only about 7 percent of mortgaged transactions. All in all, however, the majority of Pacific Union clients feel optimistic about the Bay Area housing market in 2016 (54 percent), with somewhat a smaller share feeling some concern (44 percent). Very few — 2 percent — feel pessimistic.


Figure 1: How was the most recent transaction financed?

35%

4%

36%

25%

All cash

Mortgaged with 20% down

Mortgaged with less than 20% down

Mortgaged with more than 20% down

Figure 2: Where did the funds come from in all cash and mortgaged transactions?

60% 50%

50% 40%

35%

30%

24%

21% 20%

21%

13%

10% 1% 0%

25%

13% 6%

5%

Stock options from current employer

Family wealth

Personal wealth

Source of cash in all cash transactions

Sale of previous real estate assets

Savings

2%

Client worked for a company that had an IPO

Source of down-payment in mortgaged transactions


WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE HOUSING MARKET? There has certainly been some adjustment of expectations in the market. Overall, the Bay Area continues to experience the highest price appreciation in the country. In some submarkets, prices are still growing at double-digit percentage points on an annual basis. Sales, however, face challenges, in large part due to an ever-slimmer number of homes on the market. The housing picture is not uniform across the region, and affordability seems to play a large role. When compared with last year, sales have dropped the most in the areas with the highest prices, while other more affordable areas have seen sales increase. Buyers appeared to have grown weary of the competitive market and are not pursuing purchases as aggressively. The median time that homes last on the market has extended a little longer when compared with last year in some expensive places such as San Francisco and Marin County. Similarly, the escalation of sales prices over the initial listing prices is slowing, and buyers are exercising more caution when entering bidding wars. Pacific Union sales numbers show similar trends as the overall market. After falling activity in January and February, March was encouraging, with sales slightly up from last year. Over the past 30 months, Pacific Union listings peaked in March 2015 at 417 and are currently 13 percent below that. The lack of homes for sale stands as the biggest obstacle for the busy spring season. In all Bay Area regions in which Pacific Union operates, the number of homes for sale is down from the same time last year, with the largest declines in the areas north of San Francisco and in the East Bay — 15 percent and 13 percent respectively. San Francisco and the South Bay have both seen about 3.5 percent declines in homes for sale. Limited inventory combined with strong job growth will continue putting pressure on prices in the second quarter of 2016, though the appreciation may be more subdued than in past quarters. As noted earlier, normalization will permeate housing markets, and appreciation rates will slow to lower single-digit numbers. Any remaining uncertainty in the market will stem from the upcoming presidential election and continued geopolitical risks that could unsettle the positive consumer sentiment that has been building with a better job market and wage growth.


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Ellen Anderson Senior Vice President, Contra Costa County 925.743.9330 ellen.anderson@pacunion.com 101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley pacificunion.com

Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley: Q1 Results Real estate activity in our Contra Costa County region showed further signs of normalization in the first quarter, with the average sales price holding steady from the fourth quarter of 2015 and inventory growing by nearly 50 percent. Those extra homes for sale meant that competition was less fierce than in previous quarters and that the market is gradually shifting in favor of buyers. Another indicator that sellers are no longer in the driver’s seat is that the average Contra Costa County home sold for just less than list price in the first quarter, as multiple-offer situations are becoming less common. In general, buyers were more cautious, the result of stock-market jitters and uncertainty over the upcoming presidential election. Many older homeowners traded large homes for smaller properties or left California entirely, giving those who have been shut out of the market more properties to choose from. Looking Forward: With the arrival of spring, even more inventory will hit the market as sellers take advantage of this traditionally busy real estate season. We expect prices to level off as market conditions balance, though demand should remain solid thanks to a thriving job market and low interest rates. Defining Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,300,000 $1,100,000

$1,093,500 $1,100,000

$1,185,000 $1,100,000

$1,110,000

$1,069,000

$1,125,000 $1,056,000 $1,099,000 $1,049,000 $1,051,000 $1,020,000 $1,010,000

$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6 2.1

2.1

1.6

1.5

1.6 1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.1 0.7 0.6

0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 50 43

45

38

40

34

35 30 25

28

25

20

19

19

18

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

23

24

Jul-15

Aug-15

28

31

21

15 10 5 0

Mar-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 45%

45.3%

42.4%

44.7% 40.3%

40%

37.8%

41.1% 36.7%

35.5%

36.2%

36.9%

36.0%

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

32.9%

35%

33.5%

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 104% 102%

102.4%

101.6%

101.0%

101.7%

101.3% 99.8%

100%

99.3%

99.0%

99.5%

99.1%

98.9%

98% 96.0%

96%

94.2%

94% 92% 90%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.


Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Contra Costa County/Tri-Valley

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Alamo

$

45,328,525

$

73,164,050

61%

28

39

39%

31

44

42%

$ 1,414,050

$ 1,685,000

19%

Blackhawk

$

20,772,900

$

36,803,500

77%

13

19

46%

56

62

11%

$ 1,459,900

$ 1,550,000

6%

Danville

$ 137,453,351

$ 139,096,623

1%

118

109

-8%

27

39

44%

$ 1,077,500

$ 1,170,000

9%

Diablo

$

21,655,000

$

9,279,000

-57%

10

4

-60%

141

44

-69%

$ 1,877,500

$ 2,189,500

17%

Lafayette

$

71,970,761

$

67,540,622

-6%

51

43

-16%

38

39

3%

$ 1,340,000

$ 1,425,000

6%

Moraga

$

33,252,188

$

25,571,500

-23%

28

20

-29%

27

14

-48%

$ 1,159,500

$ 1,232,500

6%

Orinda

$

68,592,424

$

37,589,525

-45%

46

23

-50%

26

23

-12%

$ 1,351,700

$ 1,500,000

11%

Pleasant Hill

$

38,487,609

$

37,784,450

-2%

59

54

-8%

32

17

-47%

$

650,000

$

659,500

1%

San Ramon

$ 125,438,361

$

116,256,394

-7%

126

106

-16%

19

27

42%

$

980,000

$ 1,012,500

3%

Walnut Creek

$

$

93,037,308

25%

76

91

20%

27

26

-4%

$

913,500

$

6%

74,353,340

971,000

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.


East Bay Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Pam Hoffman Senior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region 510.339.6460 phoffman@pacunion.com 1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611


East Bay pacificunion.com

East Bay: Q1 Results East Bay home hunters continued to heavily outnumber sellers in the first quarter of 2016, and the inventory that did come to market usually vanished in less than two weeks. The result was the same sort of bidding wars that have been prevalent over the past couple of years, with well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods – those in highly walkable locations near BART – seeing the most demand. Homes in the $800,000 to $1 million price point were also popular with buyers. Even strong El Niño storms didn’t keep home shoppers from venturing out in droves; on one of the rainiest weekends in March, a home in Oakland’s highly desirable Montclair neighborhood attracted more than 70 eager open-house visitors. Because East Bay buyers will most likely have competition for any attractive home in good condition, we advise hopeful homeowners to come right out of the gate with their best bid. Looking Forward: With the coming of spring, we anticipate that more East Bay sellers will take advantage of the market and list their homes, providing some relief to buyers who have been frustrated with the low inventory conditions of the past few years. As long as the job market remains favorable, we don’t anticipate demand slowing much through the rest of the year. Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Alameda; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000

$900,000

$925,000

$915,000

$910,000 $918,500 $850,000

$865,000

$913,500

$925,000

$977,500 $877,500

$880,000

$875,000

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 1.9

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.5 1.3 1.1

1.2

1.1 0.9

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.9 0.7

0.7

0.4

0.5 0.3 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.


East Bay pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 45

41

40 35 30 25 20

23

20 16

22 17

17

Jun-15

Jul-15

24 20

19

23

20

17

15 10 5 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60% 50%

56.2% 50.1%

50.8%

50.1%

50.6%

51.4% 46.6%

42.6%

40%

46.3%

45.5% 39.6%

45.7% 37.9%

30% 20% 10% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 118% 116%

115.7%

115.6%

115.2%

115.8%

114.9%

114%

114.7%

114.1% 112.7%

112%

112.3%

112.2% 110.8%

110.6%

110% 108% 106%

104.2%

104% 102% 100% 98%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.


East Bay pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at the East Bay

East Bay Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Alameda

$

47,352,697

$

58,158,984

23%

52

58

12%

23

27

17%

$

839,000

$

952,500

14%

Albany

$

7,170,000

$

16,339,888

128%

9

17

89%

11

16

45%

$

800,000

$

848,888

6%

Berkeley

$

82,636,400

$

86,234,300

4%

78

82

5%

25

26

4%

$

952,500

$

901,000

-5%

El Cerrito

$

17,335,888

$

23,510,300

36%

24

29

21%

23

31

35%

$

706,000

$

775,000

10%

Kensington

$

13,005,500

$

2,550,000

-80%

14

3

-79%

20

14

-30%

$

880,000

$

715,000

-19%

Oakland*

$ 163,364,963

$ 195,054,670

19%

186

181

-3%

26

26

0%

$

800,500

$

905,000

13%

Piedmont

$

$

-50%

18

8

-56%

34

18

-47%

$ 2,500,000

25%

39,154,005

19,748,000

$ 2,001,003

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

8,861,375

-31%

34

22

-35%

44

26

-41%

$

381,000

$

410,525

8%

Over $500,000 $ 357,124,923

$ 392,734,767

10%

347

356

3%

23

26

13%

$

890,000

$

920,000

3%

$500,000 $1 million

$ 156,553,877

-7%

222

204

-8%

22

27

23%

$

757,500

$

761,000

0%

$ 236,180,890

25%

125

152

22%

25

24

-4%

$ 1,300,000

$ 1,276,000

-2%

Under $500,000

$

12,894,530

$ 167,940,848

Over $1 million $ 189,184,075

Q1 '16 $

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for SFH in the East Bay: Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

Oakland Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Neighborhood

Homes Sold Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Average Price % change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller

38

46

21%

$1,017,124

$1,103,225

8%

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake

20

14

-30%

$975,663

$1,110,892

14%

Rockridge / Claremont

23

21

-9%

$1,443,677

$2,519,108

74%

Glenview / Oakmore

13

15

15%

$911,834

$1,038,143

14%

Laurel / Dimond

13

12

-8%

$593,423

$676,833

14%

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights

24

8

-67%

$736,607

$813,462

10%

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline

5

4

-20%

$1,188,600

$1,287,000

8%

Temescal / Piedmont Ave.

9

9

0%

$913,556

$925,111

1%

Source: EBRD, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.


Marin County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Brent Thomson President, Marin County 415.383.1900 brent.thomson@pacunion.com 575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941


Marin County pacificunion.com

Marin County: Q1 Results The first quarter of 2016 followed typical seasonal patterns in Marin County, with a slow January and February, mostly due to a lack of homes on the market rather than diminishing buyer demand. Inventory began to increase in March, though El NiĂąo storms put more of a damper on activity than usual. Continued inventory constraints are evidenced by the fact that listings were down from the first quarter of last year by about 10 percent. Mill Valley, Kentfield, Ross, and Tiburon remain highly coveted communities, and there is no shortage of buyers that can afford to pay all cash for homes. Properties priced from $1 million to $1.5 million were most popular with buyers, with many homes in this range garnering multiple offers. Looking Forward: As the skies clear and spring arrives, expect an influx of new listings to flood Marin County. As in past years, we project that activity will remain vigorous through the second quarter before slowing in the summer, when both buyers and sellers turn to thoughts of vacations instead of real estate. Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $1,300,000

$1,160,000

$1,201,908 $1,175,000 $1,112,000 $1,100,000 $1,056,000 $1,055,000

$1,175,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,150,000

$1,125,000

$1,150,000

$965,000

$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.6

2.3

2.3 2.0

2.1

1.6

1.6 1.3

1.4

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.8 1.6

1.4 1.0

1.1

0.6

0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.


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Average Days on the Market 90 78

80 70 59

60 50

56

51

47

40

38

38

Jun-15

Jul-15

62

57 48

54

54 45

30 20 10 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 45%

43.7%

43.6%

42.4% 37.0%

40%

39.4% 36.6%

35%

34.9% 31.1%

30.2%

31.4%

30.7%

30%

33.9%

26.7%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 104% 102%

102.5% 100.8%

100.6%

100.2%

100% 98.3%

97.8%

98% 95.7%

96%

96.1%

96.5%

95.8%

95.9%

Jan-16

Feb-16

95.1%

94.8%

94% 92% 90%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.


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A Closer Look at Marin County

Marin County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Belvedere

$

33,111,500

$

20,790,000

-37%

8

6

-25%

84

131

56%

$ 3,225,000

$ 3,512,500

9%

Corte Madera

$

24,509,000

$

12,890,000

-47%

20

9

-55%

32

36

13%

$ 1,055,000

$ 1,365,000

29%

Fairfax

$

3,867,500

$

10,964,300

183%

5

12

140%

19

57

200%

$

$

830,000

11%

Greenbrae

$

10,221,000

$

13,029,000

27%

6

7

17%

26

16

-38%

$ 1,682,000

$ 1,900,000

13%

Kentfield

$

41,319,450

$

17,373,000

-58%

17

6

-65%

52

34

-35%

$ 2,115,000

$ 1,737,500

-18%

Larkspur

$

14,759,592

$

20,911,700

42%

8

13

63%

52

80

54%

$ 1,813,500

$ 1,500,000

-17%

Mill Valley

$

97,216,515

$

56,368,800

-42%

56

38

-32%

51

62

22%

$ 1,422,500

$ 1,345,000

-5%

Novato

$

86,829,318

$

87,264,065

1%

95

91

-4%

66

67

2%

$

$

4%

Ross

$

19,775,000

$

24,625,000

25%

4

5

25%

45

47

4%

$ 4,862,500

$ 2,735,000

San Anselmo

$

24,630,500

$

21,441,000

-13%

21

19

-10%

37

37

0%

$

900,000

$

965,000

7%

San Rafael

$

84,194,006

$

94,579,940

12%

87

81

-7%

52

46

-12%

$

840,000

$ 1,018,000

21%

Sausalito

$

15,375,000

$

27,955,000

82%

9

11

22%

47

44

-6%

$ 1,500,000

$ 2,595,000

73%

Tiburon

$

51,739,815

$

52,162,000

1%

19

15

-21%

56

69

23%

$ 2,700,000

$ 2,000,000

-26%

750,000

850,000

881,000

-44%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.


Napa County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Linda Carroll Regional Executive, Napa County 707.251.8805 linda.carroll@pacunion.com 944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559


Napa County pacificunion.com

Napa County: Q1 Results Real estate activity in the first quarter of 2016 looked remarkably similar to the same period last year in Napa County. January and February were typically slow, with sales picking up in March despite strong El NiĂąo storms. Although inventory was tighter than in past quarters, the market appears to be balancing, with sellers not having the same advantage as they do in other parts of the Bay Area. As such, bidding wars have cooled down. Properties in the $400,000-to-$500,000 range sometimes attracted multiple offers, but only if they were priced correctly and in prime condition. Unlike in other parts of the region, contingencies are still very much a fact of life in Napa County, as sellers attempt to stay in the current home while they search for their next one. Looking Forward: We expect more owners to list their properties in the second quarter, as spring blooms give Napa County homes an extra splash of curb appeal. Larger estates in the northern part of the county will hit the market in April and May, typically one of the busiest times of the year for real estate. Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

Median Sales Price $800,000 $700,000 $600,000

$633,000 $586,250

$559,750

$600,000

$630,250

$620,000

$655,000

$685,000 $595,500

$571,316

$650,000 $649,750 $579,500

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 6.1

5.7

5.1 4.1

4.1 3.2 3.1

2.7

3.6 2.9

3.4

3.3

2.9 2.4

3.0

2.8

2.4

2.1 1.1 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.


Napa County pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 120

112 102

100

91

93

80

92 71

71

72

85

72

95

80

60

60 40 20 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 30%

28.2%

25.4%

25.1%

25%

23.5%

24.2%

21.7%

21.5%

20%

17.2%

19.0%

28.2%

28.2%

Feb-16

Mar-16

20.4%

13.8%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98% 96%

95.9% 94.5%

96.5% 94.7%

95.8%

96.4% 94.2%

94%

95.0%

95.0%

94.6% 92.9%

92%

89.4%

90% 88% 86%

84.4%

84% 82% 80% 78%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.


Napa County pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Napa County

Napa County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

American Canyon

$

14,303,713

$

12,061,500

-16%

36

28

-22%

83

105

27%

$

383,500

$

422,000

10%

Angwin

$

919,000

$

6,194,913

574%

2

3

50%

196

134

-32%

$

459,500

$ 2,140,000

366%

Calistoga

$

13,607,300

$

24,570,000

81%

12

10

-17%

170

288

69%

$

648,000

$ 1,035,000

60%

Napa

$ 122,570,430

$ 141,600,197

16%

179

166

-7%

86

89

3%

$

525,000

$

622,500

19%

St. Helena

$

19,224,500

$

34,460,000

79%

15

24

60%

183

101

-45%

$

801,000

$ 1,195,000

49%

Yountville

$

13,256,421

$

2,533,333

-81%

7

3

-57%

180

87

-52%

$ 1,300,741

$

-35%

845,000

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Under $500,000

$

44,448,699

$

29,516,999

-34%

119

72

-39%

79

90

14%

$

387,000

$

424,500

10%

$500,000 $999,999

$

66,837,999

$

80,348,656

20%

101

115

14%

93

74

-20%

$

629,000

$

652,325

4%

$1 million - $3 million

$

51,037,921

$

66,212,288

30%

31

41

32%

188

137

-27%

$ 1,580,000

$ 1,550,000

-2%

Over $3 million $

31,456,295

$

48,045,000

53%

7

7

0%

176

462

163%

$ 3,380,750

$ 4,900,000

45%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.


San Francisco Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Patrick Barber President 415.929.7100 patrick.barber@pacunion.com 1699 Van Ness Avenue | San Francisco, CA 94109


San Francisco pacificunion.com

San Francisco: Q1 Results While the San Francisco real estate market remains tilted in favor of sellers, conditions continued to normalize in the first quarter of 2016. Condominiums, for instance, received fewer multiple offers than in quarters past, particularly those at the high end of the market. We also noticed that buyers were entering negotiations with higher expectations; a home not priced properly or one that needed extensive repairs was likely to sit on the market for a while before selling. Attractive single-family homes priced less than $2 million, however, sold rapidly, while sales in the $2 million to $3 million range began to cool as the quarter wound down. Although a lack of inventory still plagues San Francisco, we did see some relief in the form of more condominium listings. Young, affluent tech workers competing for limited housing continued to push prices up, particularly for entry-level condos. Looking Forward: Home stagers and inspectors were almost fully booked by the end of the first quarter, a sure sign that sellers are preparing to list their properties in the traditionally busy spring season. We expect that a strong local economy and historically low interest rates will combine for a healthy 2016 for San Francisco’s real estate market.

Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price $1,500,000 $1,300,000

$1,307,500 $1,250,000

$1,400,000

$1,300,000 $1,280,000 $1,225,444

$1,405,000 $1,270,000 $1,155,000

$1,275,000 $1,201,500

$1,355,000

$1,175,000

$1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $1,300,000 $1,100,000

$1,138,000 $1,105,000 $1,069,000

$1,139,000 $1,102,563 $1,050,000

$1,110,500 $1,020,000

$1,150,000 $1,115,000 $1,112,500 $1,100,000

$1,122,500

$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.6 3.1

3.1 2.6

2.6 2.1

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.6

2.4 2.0

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.1

0.9

0.6 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

3.6 3.1

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.6 2.1 1.6

1.9 1.3

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.5 1.0

1.1 0.6 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 50 43

45 40

34

35 30

30

27

26

Mar-15

Apr-15

25

28

29

Jul-15

Aug-15

29

28

29

Oct-15

Nov-15

31 25

24

20 15 10 5 0

May-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 50

44

45 40 35

31

34

36 32

30

28

29

Jun-15

Jul-15

46

36

34

27

32

27

25 20 15 10 5 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

45%

40.9%

40%

36.9%

38.4% 35.2%

35%

38.2% 35.1%

31.5%

36.0%

35.2%

33.2%

29.6%

28.8%

30%

24.6%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 45%

43.8%

39.9%

40%

39.2%

40.9% 38.2%

35%

35.0% 29.8%

30%

34.6% 30.9%

30.1%

25%

24.9%

24.5%

Dec-15

Jan-16

28.8%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 118%

116.4%

116% 114% 112% 110%

113.8%

112.7%

112.2% 110.8%

109.8%

109.6%

110.3%

110.3% 107.1%

108%

108.3%

107.0%

106%

104.7%

104% 102% 100% 98%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 109.3%

110% 108%

109.1% 108.3%

108.4% 107.2%

108.2%

108.2%

106.5% 105.7%

106%

104.9% 104.0%

104%

102.7%

102%

101.9%

100% 98%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

Delving into San Francisco’s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods. District 1:

Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.

District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights. District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview. District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park. District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks. District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition. District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights. District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,

Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.

District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach,

South of Market, Yerba Buena.

District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood,

Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.


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San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

District 1

$

66,338,150

$

61,772,500

-7%

34

29

-15%

22

35

59%

$

District 2

$

74,925,185

$

81,781,986

9%

68

65

-4%

28

32

14%

$ 1,075,000

$ 1,177,000

District 3

$

21,153,204

$

37,417,161

77%

23

33

43%

40

31

-23%

$

$

District 4

$

75,519,388

$

75,296,480

0%

53

48

-9%

45

25

-44%

District 5

$

157,107,331

$

117,225,930

-25%

65

47

-28%

25

30

District 6

$

6,007,000

$

9,805,000

63%

4

3

-25%

52

District 7

$

103,391,500

$

90,096,352

-13%

19

18

-5%

District 8

$

5,810,000

$

4,000,000

-31%

3

1

District 9

$

87,173,725

$

57,459,473

-34%

59

District 10

$

73,775,979

$

57,889,396

-22%

100

1,722,500

$

1,900,000

% change 10% 9%

1,050,000

24%

$ 1,250,000

$ 1,487,500

19%

20%

$

$

69

33%

$ 1,507,500

$ 2,830,000

88%

25

33

32%

$

$

3,625,000

-30%

-67%

27

18

-33%

$ 2,100,000

$ 4,000,000

90%

37

-37%

25

27

8%

$

1,400,000

$

1,420,000

71

-29%

43

39

-9%

$

717,500

$

810,000

845,000

2,100,000

5,200,000

2,277,700

8%

1% 13%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

42%

15

24

60%

30

21

-30%

$

1,200,000

District 1

$

19,009,500

$

26,926,000

District 2

$

8,165,000

$

8,245,000

1%

9

6

-33%

67

23

-66%

$

District 3

$

3,615,880

$

4,989,595

38%

7

8

14%

28

24

-14%

District 4

$

5,571,000

$

3,398,000

-39%

9

5

-44%

24

56

District 5

$

92,433,119

$

76,378,988

-17%

74

58

-22%

29

District 6

$

54,951,256

$

57,828,371

5%

52

48

-8%

District 7

$

94,779,401

$

76,048,650

-20%

57

39

District 8

$

85,249,862

$

66,093,526

-22%

64

District 9

$

212,958,175

$

209,768,851

-1%

District 10

$

6,202,250

$

7,165,837

16%

Q1 '16

% change

1,112,500

-7%

805,000

$ 1,400,000

74%

$

495,000

$

600,000

21%

133%

$

600,000

$

650,000

8%

36

24%

$

1,154,444

$

1,260,000

9%

34

41

21%

$

944,500

-32%

23

30

30%

$

1,603,000

$

1,665,000

56

-13%

46

32

-30%

$ 1,020,000

$

905,000

180

177

-2%

40

43

8%

$

1,047,500

$

1,095,000

9

11

22%

43

42

-2%

$

721,000

$

630,000

$

$ 1,197,500

27% 4% -11% 5% -13%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.


San Francisco pacificunion.com

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

-38%

173

104

-40%

43

36

-16%

Under $1 million

$

132,497,157

$

82,027,013

$1 million - $3 million

$

349,555,305

$

346,065,413

-1%

217

214

-1%

27

29

7%

Over $3 million $

189,149,000

$

164,651,852

-13%

38

34

-11%

27

37

37%

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

807,500

4%

$ 1,465,000

$ 1,496,685

2%

$

$

$

775,000

4,580,500

$

3,925,000

-14%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Under $1 million

$

152,378,493

$

140,568,396

-8%

210

186

-11%

41

43

5%

$1 million - $2 million

$

294,077,804

$

284,839,422

-3%

215

207

-4%

31

34

10%

Over $2 million $

136,479,146

$

111,435,000

-18%

51

39

-24%

36

29

-19%

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

775,000

6%

$ 1,310,000

$ 1,345,000

3%

$

$

5%

$

732,750

2,480,000

$

2,600,000

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.


Silicon Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

David Barca Vice President, Silicon Valley 650.314.7200 dbarca@pacunion.com 1706 El Camino Real, Suite 220 | Menlo Park CA 94025


Silicon Valley pacificunion.com

Silicon Valley: Q1 Results The first quarter began sluggish in our Silicon Valley region, with a slower than average January and February. But as the rain fell in March, the real estate floodgates opened, and sales volume surged, compensating for the first two months. Multiple offers were common for well-priced properties in attractive neighborhoods, though some buyers are sitting out, perhaps spooked by the stock market, as well as layoffs at local tech companies and rumors of more downsizing to come. Even with more inventory, prices don’t appear likely to top out this year due to continued strong demand. As has been the case for the past couple of years, nearly one-third of homes sold in Silicon Valley in the first quarter never hit the MLS, which helps sellers retain their privacy but doesn’t guarantee they will get the best possible price. Looking Forward: Based on March’s bustling sales pace, we predict another healthy spring season, traditionally one of the busiest times for real estate. Prices should continue to rise until the middle of summer, and hopefully local sellers will take advantage of the opportune environment. Defining Silicon Valley: Our real estate markets in the Silicon Valley region include the cities and towns of Atherton, Los Altos (excluding county area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities. Defining the Mid-Peninsula: Our real estate markets in the Mid-Peninsula subregion include the cities of Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area). Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $3,600,000

$3,280,000

$3,100,000 $2,800,000

$2,665,000

$2,600,000

$2,700,000 $2,625,000

$2,700,000

$2,750,000

$2,750,000

$2,612,500

$2,641,500 $2,500,000

$2,675,000

$2,800,000

$2,100,000 $1,600,000 $1,100,000 $600,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.6

3.2

3.1

2.8 2.5

2.6

2.1

2.1 1.6

2.2 1.8

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.1 0.6 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these SIlicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.


Silicon Valley pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 45 40

37

39

35 30

30 26

25 19

20

21

22

20

23

24

24 19

18

15 10 5 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 45%

45.3%

44.0%

42.0%

40%

43.5%

41.5% 36.2%

35%

30.3%

30%

32.8% 28.5%

28.4%

26.1%

25% 18.8%

20%

20.2%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

102.5%

103.2%

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 108% 106%

106.1%

106.5% 104.0%

104.9% 103.0%

104%

104.2%

104.4%

104.7%

102% 99.4%

100% 98%

98.4% 96.7%

96% 94% 92% 90%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.


Silicon Valley pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Silicon Valley

Silicon Valley Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Atherton

$

87,730,000

$

78,357,000

-11%

11

13

18%

72

31

-57%

$

Los Altos*

$

185,806,000

$

103,919,650

-44%

60

35

-42%

15

11

-27%

$ 2,800,000

$ 2,725,000

-3%

Los Altos Hills

$

121,482,500

$

47,461,000

-61%

24

13

-46%

41

60

46%

$

$

3,660,000

0%

Menlo Park**

$

118,527,000

$

121,493,500

3%

46

49

7%

19

21

11%

$ 2,562,500

$ 2,500,000

-2%

Palo Alto

$

177,638,200

$

182,120,588

3%

58

61

5%

21

20

-5%

$

$

2,500,000

-4%

Portola Valley

$

24,866,000

$

29,381,000

18%

8

9

13%

37

34

-8%

$ 2,580,500

$ 2,700,000

5%

Woodside

$

49,302,000

$

51,350,000

4%

16

12

-25%

82

78

-5%

$ 2,575,000

$ 4,000,000

55%

7,000,000

3,650,000

2,600,000

$

4,600,000

-34%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Silicon Valley cities. *Excludes County area **Excludes east of U.S. 101


Mid-Peninsula pacificunion.com

Median Sales Price $1,900,000 $1,700,000 $1,500,000

$1,575,000 $1,550,000 $1,530,000 $1,501,000

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

$1,778,000

$1,775,000

$1,800,000

$1,688,000 $1,590,000

$1,650,000 $1,514,000

$1,300,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.1

2.8

2.6 2.1

1.1

1.8

1.6

1.6 0.9

1.1

1.0

0.9

May-15

Jun-15

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.2 0.9

0.8

0.6 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Average Days on the Market 40 34

35 30 25

26

25 21

21

21

21

20

22

20

19

16

14

15

25

10 5 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).


Mid-Peninsula pacificunion.com

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60%

53.3%

50.8%

47.2%

50%

50.0% 46.6%

43.4%

42.0%

48.5% 43.0%

36.7%

40%

37.0%

35.9%

30%

22.8%

20% 10% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 112%

110.6%

110% 108%

107.8%

107.3%

106.7%

106.7% 105.3%

106%

105.3%

104% 102%

100.9%

101.7%

103.0%

102.5%

Dec-15

Jan-16

102.0%

101.0%

100% 98% 96%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

A Closer Look at the Mid-Peninsula Mid-Peninsula Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Burlingame*

$

63,710,055

$

46,126,500

-28%

35

22

-37%

26

22

-15%

$ 1,760,000

$ 1,950,000

11%

Hillsborough

$

105,139,000

$

68,768,500

-35%

24

17

-29%

72

46

-36%

$ 4,067,500

$ 3,500,000

-14%

San Mateo**

$

118,595,850

$

113,203,378

-5%

84

81

-4%

18

18

0%

$ 1,281,250

$ 1,310,000

2%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected San Mateo County cities. * Excludes Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center ** Excludes the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area


Sonoma County Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Rick Laws Senior Vice President, Sonoma County 707.547.3800 rick.laws@pacunion.com 3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403


Sonoma County pacificunion.com

Sonoma County: Q1 Results The first quarter saw median home prices in Sonoma County climb to just over the $550,000 ceiling of 2015. Buyer demand remained intense, with multiple offers on most attractively priced homes up to the $1.5 million price point. In some high-end markets like Healdsburg, buyers appeared hesitant and resistant to prices in the early part of the quarter, possibly spooked by fears of a tech-sector fallout and global economic concerns. But by March that sentiment had settled down, and buyers seemed more willing to cut checks. Single-story homes and those with in-law units were especially popular with buyers throughout Sonoma County, and most well-priced properties quickly went into contract. New inventory was scarce, compounded by the fact that 15 to 20 percent of transactions occurred off the MLS. Such off-market deals may save sellers the hassle of showing a crowd of buyers their home, and entertaining multiple bids, but they don’t always guarantee the highest price. Looking Forward: As buyers appear to have put economic concerns in the rearview mirror, we expect demand to pick up even more in the spring. More listings hit the market by the end of the first quarter, which should translate into a healthy second quarter. Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

Median Sales Price $600,000 $550,000 $500,000

$510,000

$536,000 $545,000

$546,000

$545,000

Jun-15

Jul-15

$541,000

$541,500

$529,750

$526,750

Oct-15

Nov-15

$549,450

$555,000

Dec-15

Jan-16

$572,990 $542,000

$450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.1 2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.1 1.7

2.1

2.0

1.7

2.3

1.6

1.5

1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.


Sonoma County pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 90

81

80 70

73 66

63 56

60

56

59

60

60

60

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

79 69

65

50 40 30 20 10 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 50% 43.0%

45% 40%

36.4%

36.7%

35%

34.4%

35.1%

34.6% 31.4%

30%

30.9% 28.1%

28.0%

29.2%

28.6% 25.2%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 99.6%

100% 99%

99.5%

98.5%

97.9%

98%

97.7%

96.9%

96.7%

97% 96%

96.7%

96.4%

95.4%

95.1%

95%

93.8%

94%

93.9%

93% 92% 91% 90%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.


Sonoma County pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Sonoma County

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Cloverdale

$

16,340,600

$

19,436,200

19%

27

33

36%

105

89

-15%

$

409,500

$

456,000

11%

Healdsburg

$

37,551,310

$

50,797,550

35%

33

45

36%

85

117

38%

$

830,000

$

829,000

0%

Petaluma

$

61,008,440

$

72,751,800

19%

104

100

-4%

63

58

-8%

$

518,250

$

606,500

17%

Rohnert Park

$

19,026,100

$

24,701,800

30%

43

50

16%

55

79

44%

$

435,000

$

478,000

10%

Santa Rosa

$

192,711,128

$ 204,527,475

6%

350

343

-2%

74

67

-9%

$

467,850

$

525,000

12%

Sebastopol

$

21,869,457

$

29,320,180

34%

29

39

34%

91

84

-8%

$

665,000

$

710,000

7%

Windsor

$

24,526,394

$

36,244,100

48%

45

66

47%

63

67

6%

$

501,000

$

527,000

5%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Under $1 million

$ 375,273,221

$ 435,687,346

16%

740

777

5%

74

72

-3%

$

$1 million and over

$ 109,141,125

$ 147,157,131

35%

67

90

34%

141

104

-26%

$ 1,425,000

477,250

Q1 '16

% change

534,000

12%

$ 1,282,500

-10%

$

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.


Sonoma Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Jill Silvas Regional Executive, Sonoma Valley 707.939.9500 jill.silvas@pacunion.com 135 West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com

Sonoma Valley: Q1 Results There was no shortage of buyers in Sonoma Valley early in the first quarter, but there were very few properties on the market for them to choose from. When new listings hit the market, they were likely to be in contract the following day – particularly true for homes priced less than $1 million. Buyers were active despite the rainy weather, and by the end of the quarter, new listings poured in. As usual, many sellers waited for the beginning of spring to list their homes and found themselves in competition with other sellers using the same strategy. Prices appeared to begin stabilizing, as the run-up over the past couple of years has taken its toll on buyers. Although interest rates and other economic indicators are still mostly positive, the volatility of the stock market during the first quarter may have cooled some buyers’ interest. But clearly others believe that real estate is a more secure investment than stocks and made their move. Looking Forward: The second quarter may prove to be the greatest indicator of activity for the rest of the year. If inventory continues to rise and prices normalize, we may see a more balanced market than we have seen for a while. Second-home and vacation-home sales have a substantial impact on Sonoma Valley real estate, and discretionary income will continue to play a part in overall market health. Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

Median Sales Price $800,000

$756,000

$700,000 $600,000

$637,000

$759,000

$740,000

$712,500 $665,000

$640,000

$572,000

$675,000

$672,150

$633,000

$665,000

$575,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.9

4.1 3.6

3.3

3.2

3.1 2.6

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.5

2.1

2.3

2.2

1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com

Average Days on the Market 100 85

90 80 70

66

64

60

65 53

50

68 60

58

Aug-15

Sep-15

87 71

69

61

47

40 30 20 10 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 35%

32.2%

32.3%

31.8% 28.4%

27.9%

30%

24.9%

23.5%

25%

32.5% 27.7%

25.0%

25.2% 21.8%

20% 15.0%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 104% 102%

101.4%

100.5%

98.8%

100% 98%

96.7%

95.4%

96%

98.5%

97.9%

96.7%

96.5%

95.9%

93.5%

94%

91.0%

92%

89.4%

90% 88% 86% 84% 82%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.


Sonoma Valley pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Sonoma Valley

Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Glen Ellen

$

4,235,125

$

7,711,000

82%

6

7

17%

91

117

29%

$

566,000

$

798,000

41%

Kenwood

$

2,733,500

$

4,230,000

55%

4

5

25%

82

112

37%

$

527,500

$

760,000

44%

Sonoma

$

56,247,765

$

69,150,950

23%

74

80

8%

73

65

-11%

$

554,500

$

640,000

15%

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2016

Sally Gardner Regional Executive, Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 | Squaw Valley 530.584.6282 sally.gardner@pacunion.com


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Lake Tahoe/Truckee: Q1 Results The return of snow to the Sierra Nevadas brought visitors flocking to the Lake/Tahoe Truckee region in the first quarter and boosted home sales volume substantially. Inventory was tight in January and February before more homes hit the market in March. The average sales price for properties still hasn’t fully rebounded from its peak a decade ago, giving savvy buyers plenty of opportunity to score a bargain, particularly given that interest rates remain low. On average, homes sold for a few percentage points less than list price, and bidding wars were uncommon. Sellers needed to price their properties exactly right in order to ensure a speedy sale; those priced unrealistically high tended to languish on the market for months. The Lake Tahoe real estate market depends heavily on second-home buyers from the Bay Area, and continued economic prosperity should continue to drive home sales this year. Looking Forward: As El Niño fades and the snow melts, we expect more homes to come on the market in the second quarter. That added inventory should spur an uptick in sales, as buyers take advantage of favorable market conditions to secure a vacation getaway. Defining Lake Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes and condominiums in these communities.

Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price $800,000 $700,000

$727,500 $661,500

$650,000

$600,000

$535,000

$530,500

Apr-15

May-15

$560,000

$585,000

$577,500

$605,500

$579,000

$550,000

$650,000

$595,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $450,000 $400,000

$427,500

$356,000

$339,000

$350,000 $300,000

$391,500

$385,000

$362,500

$375,000 $335,000

$330,000

$321,000

Dec-15

Jan-16

$361,900

$359,500

Feb-16

Mar-16

$281,000

$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 8.6

9.1 8.1 7.1

8.2 6.8

7.1 6.3

6.9

6.1

5.5

5.8

6.4

6.1

5.6

4.7

5.1

4.7

4.1 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 25.1 19.3

20.1

15.1

10.1

12.5 9.4

9.4

12.2 9.0

11.0

11.6

11.4

11.8

8.3

7.7

6.3 5.1

0.1

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 200

183

180 160

148 130

140 120

102

100

95

83

80

80

81

89

98

114

111

59

60 40 20 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 200 173

180 160 140 120

112

100

107

100

107

122

119

114

103

92

73

80 60

55

42

40 20 0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 20% 18% 16% 14% 12%

14.3%

14.9%

13.6%

12.0%

12.1%

12.5%

Aug-15

Sep-15

17.2%

17.2%

Feb-16

Mar-16

14.6%

13.4% 11.2%

11.3%

Nov-15

Dec-15

9.5%

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 14% 12.2% 9.7%

10% 8%

11.3%

11.3%

12%

7.8%

7.7%

7.3%

8.5%

7.7%

6.3%

6.1%

6%

6.6%

6.6%

4% 2% 0%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98% 96%

96.5% 95.0%

94%

92.1%

92%

92.9%

91.5%

93.3%

93.4%

93.5%

93.4%

90.6%

91.3%

91.6%

Feb-16

Mar-16

90% 88%

86.8%

86% 84% 82% 80%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 96.5%

97% 96% 95%

94.3%

94.3%

95.9%

96.1%

95.6%

95.1%

94.1%

93.9%

94% 92.8%

93%

93.4%

91.6%

92% 91%

90.2%

90% 89% 88% 87%

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


Lake Tahoe/Truckee pacificunion.com

A Closer Look at Lake Tahoe/Truckee Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Alpine Meadows

$

5,774,500

$

2,455,000

-57%

5

3

-40%

104

97

-7%

$

1,080,000

$

750,000

-31%

Donner Lake

$

2,254,000

$

2,840,000

26%

5

4

-20%

578

124

-79%

$

435,000

$

540,000

24%

Donner Summit

$

463,000

$

6,359,000

1273%

1

12

1100%

6

204

3300%

$

463,000

$

512,500

11%

Martis Valley

$

55,112,991

$

62,171,551

13%

23

25

9%

178

168

-6%

$ 1,953,000

$ 1,600,000

-18%

North Lake Tahoe

$

39,285,000

$

36,970,560

-6%

32

42

31%

133

101

-24%

$

642,500

$

545,000

-15%

Northstar

$

600,000

$

12,847,000

2041%

1

7

600%

291

289

-1%

$

600,000

$ 1,740,000

190%

Squaw Valley

$

$

5,690,000

n/a

0

2

n/a

0

39

n/a

$

Tahoe City

$

18,052,000

$

18,136,500

0%

13

15

15%

110

88

-20%

$

Tahoe Donner

$

27,296,900

$

41,637,818

53%

41

60

46%

85

104

22%

Truckee

$

62,602,551

$

72,375,551

16%

39

41

5%

128

140

West Shore

$

43,077,825

$

20,293,400

-53%

37

17

-54%

210

142

-

$

2,845,000

n/a

815,000

$

849,500

4%

$

580,000

$

634,950

9%

9%

$

594,481

$

730,000

23%

-32%

$

545,000

$

720,000

32%

-

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.

Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15

Alpine Meadows

$

Donner Lake

$

Donner Summit

$

North Lake Tahoe

Q1 '16

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Q1 '15

Q1 '16

% change

Median Price Q1 '15

$

-

n/a

1

0

n/a

32

0

n/a

$

$

-

n/a

0

0

n/a

0

0

n/a

$

165,000

$

-

n/a

1

0

n/a

417

0

n/a

$

$

5,470,000

$

3,822,810

-30%

15

13

-13%

58

128

121%

Northstar

$

5,207,000

$

6,943,100

33%

12

14

17%

119

134

Squaw Valley

$

4,321,500

$

3,443,000

-20%

8

9

13%

369

Tahoe City

$

2,294,000

$

2,730,310

19%

6

8

33%

Tahoe Donner

$

2,196,500

$

4,361,000

99%

6

14

Truckee

$

3,948,500

$

5,638,000

43%

7

West Shore

$

n/a

0

330,000 -

-

$

-

Q1 '16

% change

$

-

n/a

$

-

n/a

165,000

$

-

n/a

$

335,000

$

290,000

-13%

13%

$

385,000

$

397,500

3%

285

-23%

$

517,250

$

360,000

-30%

101

126

25%

$

339,500

$

330,000

-3%

133%

39

61

56%

$

424,750

$

333,000

-22%

10

43%

111

127

14%

$

342,500

$

487,000

42%

0

n/a

0

0

n/a

$

330,000 -

-

$

-

n/a

Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.


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