Page 1

Q1 2013

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Table of Contents Sellers, Start Your Engines!

The Sellers’ Market Heats Up

3

4

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 6 EAST BAY 10 MARIN COUNTY 14 NAPA COUNTY 18 SAN FRANCISCO 22 SONOMA COUNTY 30 SONOMA VALLEY 34 TAHOE/TRUCKEE 38


Sellers, Start Your Engines! After record-breaking results in 2012 for units and volume of residential real estate, activity in the first quarter suggests 2013 will once again reach new highs. Local trends drive the dynamics of our markets, but overall we expect 15 to 17 percent increases in units sold in the Bay Area and price appreciation of 4 to 9 percent. The single most important dynamic driving this growth is our healthy regional job market. Economist Stephen Levy noted that the Bay Area led California job growth in January, with San Francisco at the forefront and the Oakland, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo metro areas all posting gains far above the state and national average. These are high-quality, high-paying jobs in the technology and professional services sectors. We believe confidence in jobs and business in general is driving consumer confidence and the intense pent-up demand for residential real estate. 2013 may be the last year of this cycle that money (mortgage interest rates) remains on sale as real estate prices lift from the bottom and consistent appreciation returns for a sustainable period of time. Intense demand is occurring even as the supply of available homes remains constrained, and coupled with modest price appreciation is driving the return of equity into homes. This may allow more sellers to realize gains, sell existing homes, and trade up to new dream homes or neighborhoods. These dynamics are occurring in nearly every one of the markets Pacific Union serves, and we expect it to entice move-up buyers to act – making them a likely source for new, mid-tier inventory. For specific market performance or advice on your specific property, please reach out to your local Pacific Union real estate professional. And enjoy the warmer spring months!

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union International Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.


The Sellers’ Market Heats Up It has been a bitterly cold few years for would-be sellers in the Bay Area, but spring is bringing welcome warmth for both home values and buyer activity. Home prices have been rising for a year across all of Pacific Union’s eight regions in the Bay Area and Tahoe/ Truckee. In San Francisco the median sales price of homes rose nearly 30 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and double-digit increases were recorded in all other regions as well. In a recent Wall Street Journal survey economists agreed that home prices will continue rising at least through 2017, and the Bay Area’s strong economy suggests price increases here will outpace those in most of the rest of the nation. Those rising values translate to greater equity, and many homeowners who believe they are “underwater” – owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – may be surprised to learn that they’ve regained equity based on recent sale prices for comparable homes in their neighborhood. Why the lift? In part it’s because a persistent shortage of homes for sale has created a veritable army of aggressive and highly motivated buyers who are willing to outspend the competition. For example, in our East Bay offices, 90 percent of transactions in the first quarter involved multiple offers; on average, homes sold for 13 percent over asking price. Homes in the Bay Area sold within weeks of coming on the market, frequently in all-cash deals, and multiple bids pushed sales prices above asking prices in all regions, much to the delight of sellers.

Bay Area Market Velocity, Q1 2013 Criteria

Contra Costa County

East Bay

Marin County

Napa County

San Francisco SFH

San Francisco Condo

Sonoma County

Sonoma Valley

Tahoe/ Truckee SFH

Tahoe/ Truckee Condo

Number of New Homes Listed, January-March

641

616

659

391

371

560

1306

126

123

64

Number of New Listings Sold By March 31

353

204

174

143

232

349

335

27

46

19

Percentage of New Listings Closed

55%

33%

26%

37%

63%

62%

26%

21%

35%

30%

Average Sales to List Price

102%

113%

102%

103%

108%

105%

101%

100%

99%

99%

Average Days On Market

13

13

27

39

20

23

32

29

13

13

30%

19%

34%

25%

29%

28%

38%

33%

24%

75%

Percentage of All-Cash Sales

Overall, the increased velocity of real estate activity in the first quarter of 2013 was nothing short of remarkable. This means that sellers looking to trade up to a higher-priced home may now make significant gains in the current market. For example, consider a homeowner whose property was valued at $300,000 in 2006 but dropped 20 percent in value to $240,000, for a loss of $60,000. That same 20 percent drop in value for a higher-priced home – say, a $450,000 home now valued at $360,000 – gives a trade-up buyer savings of $90,000, or a net gain of $30,000 on the new home.


Today’s low mortgage rates also offer serious savings to trade-up buyers. In 2002, when the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.5 percent, the monthly payment on a $500,000 loan was $3,160. At current rates, which hover around 3.6 percent, approximately the same loan payment would buy a home with a $700,000 mortgage – a net gain of $200,000. The benefit won’t last forever, so prospective sellers should move quickly: A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates will average 4.4 percent by the end of 2013. That 0.8 point rise will add $230 to the monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage. So if you’re thinking about selling in this blazing market, don’t get burned by waiting too long. And count on the expertise of a real estate professional who knows the local market to help assess your home’s current value and prospects. Looks like it’s shaping up to be a hot season for sellers!

Bay Area 10-Year Overview Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the first quarter of 2013, with a glance back at the 10 preceding first quarters.

REGION

Q1 '03

Q1 '04

Q1 '05

2,393

2,436

2,436

EAST BAY

448

458

MARIN COUNTY

408

NAPA COUNTY

Q1 '06

Q1 '07

Q1 '08

Q1 '09

Q1 '10

Q1 '11

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

2,095

1,791

1,310

2,892

2,288

2,456

2,552

457

455

378

297

267

311

417

451

376

526

488

410

427

281

223

349

385

434

426

278

315

298

245

220

140

244

263

290

313

263

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH)

475

472

464

429

402

174

333

468

501

535

478

SAN FRANCISCO (condos)

426

524

501

484

458

319

216

372

479

485

490

SONOMA COUNTY

1,161

1,261

1,243

1,037

885

621

1,028

921

978

1,156

970

SONOMA VALLEY

100

149

136

97

81

75

84

88

103

114

103

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH)

n/a

171

154

118

135

121

91

149

164

198

183

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (condos)

n/a

63

52

58

40

33

18

61

48

45

64

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2012.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.

2,159


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Ellen Anderson Senior Vice President, Contra Costa County 925.743.9330 ellen.anderson@pacunion.com 101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Contra Costa County: Q1 Results The last weeks of the first quarter brought some good news to the Contra Costa County real estate market: The number of homes for sale jumped noticeably after many months of shrinking inventory. The change didn’t come a moment too soon, as the average number of listings in the region was down 62 percent from a year earlier. In such a squeezed market, homes priced at $800,000 to $1.2 million sold as quickly as they became available. Townhouses and condominiums priced below $800,000 went quickly too, while the pace was a bit slower in the market for homes above $1.8 million. Lafayette was exceptionally busy in the quarter, as was the general Lamorinda area. With far more buyers than homes for sale, many resorted to off-market deals – buying properties before they had a chance to get listed on a local MLS. One-third of sales in the quarter were all-cash deals, an unusually high number. First-time homebuyers had an ample supply of homes to choose from several years ago, including short sales and foreclosures. But distressed sales have dried up and today’s competitive market has left those buyers scrambling to get any house available or find themselves crowded out of the market entirely. Looking Forward: The recent influx of homes for sale will likely continue as rising prices prompt sellers to jump into the market. We expect April to be a busy month, with strong sales continuing through the rest of the second quarter and beyond. Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $800,000 $700,000 $600,000

$635,000

$681,250 $668,000 $668,500

$720,000 $635,000

$655,000 $642,500

$615,750 $625,000

$580,450

$582,000 $605,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Median sales price for single-family homes in Contra Costa County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2

1.9 1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1

0.9

0.8

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Contra Costa County.

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 60 52 50

44 36

40

34

36 29

28

30

27

25

30

29

30 23

20 10 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in Contra Costa County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 70% 58.4%

60% 50% 40%

37.2%

35.8%

Mar '12

Apr '12

39.1%

May '12

37.7%

37.2%

37.9%

36.7%

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

38.1%

40.1%

39.1%

Nov '12

Dec '12

43.0%

46.8%

30% 20% 10% 0% Oct '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, October October April3,4,2012 2013. 3, 2012 Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Contra Costa County.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 102%

100.7%

100% 97.8%

98%

97.8% 97.1%

97.9%

98.6%

99.5%

99.1% 97.9%

98.5%

97.0%

95.6%

96% 94.4% 94% 92% 90% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Source: BAREIS, MAXEBRD, October October 3, 2012 Terradatum, April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Contra Costa County.

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

A Closer Look at Contra Costa County

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Alamo

$

67,130,622

$

53,415,278

-20%

48

41

-15%

97

25

-74%

$ 1,052,000

$ 1,299,000

23%

Blackhawk

$

19,599,600

$

21,982,980

12%

15

20

33%

128

53

-58%

$ 1,185,000

$ 1,001,500

-15%

Concord

$

84,539,245

$

89,559,857

6%

279

241

-14%

52

22

-57%

$

288,000

$

355,000

23%

Danville

$

85,695,725

$ 100,743,854

18%

106

105

-1%

50

37

-27%

$

743,000

$

880,000

18%

Diablo

$

3,382,000

$

8,731,250

158%

3

4

33%

102

107

5%

$

985,000

$ 2,115,625

115%

Lafayette

$

44,741,230

$

74,081,806

66%

44

55

25%

42

40

-4%

$

790,000

$ 1,230,000

56%

Martinez

$

28,752,260

$

34,174,099

19%

97

96

-1%

50

28

-45%

$

292,000

$

340,000

16%

Moraga

$

24,287,000

$

26,158,500

8%

25

23

-8%

66

34

-48%

$

860,000

$ 1,050,000

22%

Orinda

$

24,554,000

$

38,012,108

55%

25

33

32%

72

29

-60%

$

920,000

$ 1,000,000

9%

Pleasant Hill

$

27,581,785

$

30,369,625

10%

67

63

-6%

40

27

-32%

$

390,000

$

465,000

19%

San Ramon

$

92,803,369

$

95,788,538

3%

126

117

-7%

41

20

-50%

$

735,000

$

765,000

4%

Walnut Creek $

59,144,545

$

79,980,840

35%

91

103

13%

57

20

-65%

$

634,000

$

735,000

16%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

EAST BAY

Pam Hoffman Senior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region 510.339.6460 phoffman@pacunion.com 1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

EAST BAY A Member Of Real Living

East Bay: Q1 Results How tight was the supply of East Bay homes for sale in the first quarter? One statistic says it all: Fully 90 percent of the transactions in Pacific Union’s Montclair and Berkeley offices involved multiple offers, with the number of bids rising into double digits for many homes. The tight supply proved challenging for first-time buyers, who increasingly found themselves outbid or priced out of their preferred neighborhoods. The number of short sales and foreclosed homes was down considerably in the quarter, further limiting the supply of lower-priced properties for first-time buyers. Homes sold quickly in the quarter, with an increasing number of all-cash transactions. Sellers enjoyed higher prices than they’ve seen in years, with homes frequently selling for more than 10 percent above the asking price. Looking Forward: We’re optimistic that rising prices and attractive offers will coax more homeowners to put their properties on the market in the second quarter and beyond, with more than enough demand to meet the supply. Rising home equity, thanks to recent price increases, may pleasantly surprise sellers, prompting them to become trade-up buyers themselves. Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $800,000

$728,000

$700,000

$644,000 $623,333 $581,000 $588,500

$600,000

$601,475

$572,500

$624,500

$650,000

$610,000

$646,000 $584,275

$520,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.5 2.0 2

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.4

0.5

0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

EAST BAY A Member Of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 50 45

45

40 32

35

31

30

31 28

29

32

31 27

31

27

27

25

19

20 15 10 5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 56.7%

60% 50% 40%

42.3% 38.2%

36.4%

Mar '12

Apr '12

41.4%

38.4%

39.6%

Jul '12

Aug '12

45.4%

43.9%

Oct '12

Nov '12

47.0% 41.6%

41.9%

Jan '13

Feb '13

36.1%

30% 20% 10% 0% May '12

Jun '12

Sep '12

Dec '12

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, October October April3,4,2012 2013. 3, 2012 Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 115% 110.6% 110%

106.7% 102.7%

105%

103.0%

102.0%

104.6%

102.7% 100.4%

100.2%

102.1%

101.8%

Nov '12

Dec '12

102.6%

100% 96.1% 95% 90% 85% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Jan '13

Source: BAREIS, MAXEBRD, October October 3, 2012 Terradatum, April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

EAST BAY A Member Of Real Living

A Closer Look at the East Bay East Bay Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Albany

$

6,130,665

$

12,139,000

98%

12

18

50%

51

14

-72%

$

420,250

$

636,500

51%

Berkeley

$

57,435,757

$

53,703,840

-6%

97

64

-34%

33

18

-46%

$

543,000

$

720,000

33%

El Cerrito

$

19,705,200

$

23,955,526

22%

47

42

-11%

47

21

-55%

$

420,000

$

557,250

33%

Kensington

$

6,273,254

$

5,695,000

-9%

9

7

-22%

63

18

-72%

$

675,000

$

720,500

7%

Oakland*

$ 140,866,357

$ 150,294,978

7%

267

230

-14%

50

29

-42%

$

462,000

$

653,500

41%

Piedmont

$

$

-2%

19

15

-21%

26

21

-22%

$ 1,210,000

$ 1,405,000

16%

24,234,337

23,653,000

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities. *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

32,418,879

-56%

226

95

-58%

49

34

-32%

$

346,750

$

342,000

-1%

Under $500,000

$

Over $500,000

$ 180,685,485

$ 237,022,465

31%

225

281

25%

41

22

-47%

$

700,000

$

745,000

6%

$500,000 $1 million

$ 128,900,498

$ 161,169,465

25%

189

227

20%

42

22

-49%

$

650,000

$

690,000

6%

Over $1 million

$

$

46%

36

54

50%

34

22

-35%

$ 1,287,500

$ 1,248,500

-3%

73,960,085

51,784,987

$

75,853,000

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for East Bay single-family homes: Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, 94705.

Oakland Price Changes Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Average Price <$800,000

Neighborhood Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Average Price $800,000 + % change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller

$

560,456

$

625,799

12%

$

1,176,416

$

1,020,142

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake

$

554,092

$

617,785

11%

$

931,000

$

954,285

Rockridge / Claremont

$

655,400

$

734,666

12%

$

1,235,800

$

1,056,750

-14%

Glenview / Oakmore

$

559,559

$

588,850

5%

$

843,333

$

999,785

19%

Laurel / Dimond

$

305,000

$

419,438

38%

n/a

n/a

n/a

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights

$

487,311

$

658,538

35%

n/a

n/a

n/a

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline

$

575,000

$

703,333

22%

$

Temescal / Piedmont Ave.

$

528,125

$

606,505

15%

n/a

Source: EBRD, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.

962,580

-13%

3%

$

986,350

2%

$

1,128,333

n/a


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

MARIN COUNTY

Brent Thomson Senior Vice President, Marin County 415.383.1900 brent.thomson@pacunion.com 575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

MARIN COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Marin County: Q1 Results Marin County sellers enjoyed the best of both worlds in the first quarter of 2013: Their homes sold quicker than they have in years, and median sale prices rose considerably. For buyers, it was another story. The supply of homes for sale continued to shrink and multiple offers were rampant – frequently a dozen or more offers for a single property. In particular, many first-time buyers were disheartened as others topped their bids with all-cash offers time and again. The tight market prompted a rise in off-market deals – transactions that close without ever being listed on real estate websites or multiple listing services. Ross was especially active in all price points, especially the market for homes priced at $2 million and higher. In Novato, homes priced at $800,000 to $900,000 sold as soon as they became available, and sales rose noticeably in the $2 million-plus market. Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Corte Madera were also busy in the quarter. The quarter saw fewer distressed homes on the market. In recent years, the number of short sales, foreclosures, and bank-owned homes had been on the rise, but that supply has mostly sold. Investors remain active in the market, though their numbers are not as high as in 2011 and 2012. Looking Forward: We expect to see more homes coming on the market in April and continuing through the summer months. Multiple offers will remain the norm throughout the second quarter, although a greater supply of homes will bring more balance to the market. Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price $846,000

$900,000

$775,000 $772,500 $790,850

$800,000 $700,000

$855,000 $782,500

$790,000

Aug '12

Sep '12

$775,000 $790,000

$775,000

$835,000 $851,000

$678,000

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Median sales price for single-family homes in Marin County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.5

3.1

3.1 3

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.1

2 1.4

1.5

1.3

1 0.5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Marin County.

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

MARIN COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 120 102 100

94 79

80

72

72

Apr '12

May '12

74

67

78

74

77

89

85

80

60 40 20 0 Mar '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, SFMLS, October October October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. 3, 2012 Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in Marin County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 47.5%

50% 45%

38.8%

40% 35% 30%

34.1% 29.5%

27.2%

28.2%

25%

23.7%

23.2%

Jun '12

Jul '12

26.3%

25.6%

28.3% 23.1%

24.6%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, MAXEBRD, BAREIS, October October April3,4,2012 2013. 3, 2012 Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Marin County.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98%

96.9%

97%

95.8%

96% 95%

95.3%

95.6%

95.6% 94.8%

94.1%

93.9%

94%

92.9%

93% 92%

92.9%

92.8% 91.9%

91.6%

91% 90% 89% 88% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Source: BAREIS, MAXEBRD, October October 3, 2012 Terradatum, April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Marin County.

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

MARIN COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

A Closer Look at Marin County

Marin County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Belvedere

$

26,161,500

$

32,505,000

24%

7

10

43%

188

153

-19%

$ 4,200,000

$ 2,537,500

-40%

Corte Madera

$

7,183,000

$

18,705,500

160%

9

17

89%

98

47

-52%

$

787,000

$

869,000

10%

Fairfax

$

7,303,000

$

12,007,800

64%

15

18

20%

114

134

18%

$

360,000

$

686,150

91%

Greenbrae

$

5,991,000

$

9,759,800

63%

6

8

33%

57

56

-1%

$

979,000

$ 1,150,000

17%

Kentfield

$

15,665,000

$

25,390,350

62%

6

12

100%

88

52

-41%

$ 2,375,000

$ 1,530,000

-36%

Larkspur

$

21,008,500

$

14,772,846

-30%

19

12

-37%

95

58

-39%

$ 1,077,000

$ 1,296,923

20%

Mill Valley

$

64,835,400

$

68,722,250

6%

55

61

11%

91

89

-2%

$ 1,045,000

$

929,000

-11%

Novato

$

54,124,909

$

60,229,340

11%

95

90

-5%

103

74

-28%

$

520,000

$

640,000

23%

Ross

$

5,170,000

$

16,738,540

224%

5

8

60%

93

82

-13%

$

855,000

$ 1,962,500

130%

San Anselmo

$

24,664,865

$

38,238,256

55%

33

40

21%

92

107

16%

$

655,000

$

765,750

17%

San Rafael

$

73,092,683

$

82,472,226

13%

102

93

-9%

111

88

-21%

$

597,000

$

771,200

29%

Sausalito

$

17,540,000

$

12,670,200

-28%

13

8

-38%

113

92

-19%

$ 1,415,000

$ 1,114,450

-21%

Tiburon

$

53,625,085

$

35,224,000

-34%

28

20

-29%

92

121

32%

$ 1,702,500

$ 1,585,000

-7%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

NAPA COUNTY

Linda Carroll Branch Executive, Napa County 707.251.8805 linda.carroll@pacunion.com 944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

NAPA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Napa County: Q1 Results After a very slow January and February, home sales took off in March across Napa County. Low inventory contributed to the early slowdown, but pent-up demand eventually won out and the pace picked up considerably by the end of the quarter. Multiple offers were the norm for fairly priced properties, with many receiving 10 to 15 bids – helping to raise purchase prices accordingly. One home, listed at $349,000, landed 20 bids and went into escrow within 10 days, receiving a substantially higher offering price in an all-cash, no-contingencies deal. Another home, listed for $3.8 million, received four offers, a rarity in the luxury home market. It is also becoming more common to see homes being sold “offmarket” – before the properties are listed with an MLS – because of the heightened demand. The furious bidding can prove demoralizing for some buyers, weary after writing four or five offers with no success. Our real estate professionals have worked to keep buyer expectations in check, while helping them craft offer letters that get results. Looking Forward: The coming year should see more of the robust activity experienced during the last part of the first quarter, although the marketplace remains very constrained by lack of inventory. Given the number of multiple offers on the majority of properties, it is clear that buyers are in abundance. Until inventory increases, multiple offers will continue to be the norm. Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

Median Sales Price $450,000 $400,000 $350,000

$414,000

$400,000

$340,000

$377,500

$352,000 $347,625 $353,000

$410,000 $370,000

$360,000

$430,000

$416,000

$355,000

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 5 4.5

4.3 4.1

3.7

4 3.5

3.9

3.9 3.3

3.3

3.1

3

2.7

2.8

2.9

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

3.1 2.5

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

NAPA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 160

144

140 120

117 111

115

114

103

118 104

100

103

Oct '12

Nov '12

111 92

100

100

80 60 40 20 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 40% 33.5%

35% 30% 25%

21.6%

20.4%

22.1% 19.4%

20%

18.1%

19.9%

Jul '12

Aug '12

20.3%

19.4% 16.6%

26.7%

26.9%

Jan '13

Feb '13

18.9%

15% 10% 5% 0% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 98% 94.7%

96% 94% 91.3%

92% 90%

89.6%

90.9%

95.5% 93.4% 92.1%

91.2%

93.8%

93.2% 91.5%

89.6%

88%

86.5%

86% 84% 82% 80% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Source: BAREIS, October Terradatum, April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

NAPA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

A Closer Look at Napa County

Napa County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Median Price Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

American Canyon

$

19,571,576

$

12,857,999

-34%

69

37

-46%

88

50

-43%

$

300,000

$

345,000

15%

Angwin

$

2,297,000

$

2,893,000

26%

3

7

133%

77

126

63%

$

456,000

$

469,000

3%

Calistoga

$

7,309,000

$

6,352,000

-13%

9

9

0%

282

112

-60%

$

720,000

$

433,000

-40%

Napa

$

96,848,865

$

89,112,671

-8%

207

180

-13%

118

99

-17%

$

345,000

$

413,500

20%

St. Helena

$

22,623,400

$

22,058,500

-2%

18

25

39%

177

159

-10%

$

755,000

$

750,000

-1%

Yountville

$

2,707,500

$

2,760,000

2%

5

3

-40%

148

220

48%

$

550,000

$

750,000

36%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Median Price Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Under $500,000

$

69,518,987

$

55,863,120

-20%

237

168

-29%

102

81

-21%

$

300,000

$

338,063

13%

$500,000 $999,999

$

33,397,553

$

53,124,550

59%

50

77

54%

142

122

-14%

$

645,000

$

679,000

5%

$1 million - $3 $ million

36,697,500

$

24,187,500

-34%

24

17

-29%

209

202

-4%

$ 1,330,000

$ 1,380,000

4%

Over $3 million

12,200,000

$

3,100,000

-75%

2

1

-50%

175

144

-17%

$ 6,100,000

$ 3,100,000

-49%

$

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO

Patrick Barber President, San Francisco Region 415.929.7100 patrick.barber@pacunion.com One Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 300 | San Francisco, CA 94129


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

San Francisco: Q1 Results Pent-up buyer demand and a tight supply of homes continued to push San Francisco home prices higher in the first quarter. One home received 34 bids before the sale closed, and a dozen to 15 offers on a single property were commonplace. All neighborhoods and price points saw robust activity in the quarter, with many buyers making offers above the asking price for homes in NoPa (the area north of Golden Gate Park’s Panhandle) while local and foreign buyers bid up properties in the Sunset District. Like the Peninsula, San Francisco saw a rising number of buyers from China making all-cash bids for homes, often sight-unseen. Homes sold quickly. In mid-March three homes sold in a single day before the first broker open house had been scheduled, and one buyer bought three NoPa condominiums before the properties hit the local MLS. Distressed properties, including foreclosures, short sales, and bank-owned properties, were few and far between. With prices rising and such a limited inventory of homes on the market, owners who can’t hold onto their properties are finding solutions to their problems more easily. Looking Forward: Talk of new homes coming on the market picked up significantly at the end of the first quarter. Additional homes will benefit buyers with less-frenzied bidding, although multiple offers will remain the norm in the second and third quarters before the region moves to a more balanced market by the end of the year. Sellers can expect to see rising prices for much of 2013.

Single Family Homes – Median Sales Price $1,000,000

$920,000

$900,000 $800,000 $700,000

$760,000 $781,000 $780,000 $759,000 $766,500 $711,500

$830,000

$810,000

$837,500 $748,000

$725,000

$801,000

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $900,000 $730,250 $724,000 $745,000

$800,000 $700,000

$756,000

$735,000

$780,000

$820,000

$812,000 $755,000

$775,000

$818,000

$857,500

$650,000

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

Single Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 3 2.4

2.5 2

2.0

2.0

2.0 1.6

1.6 1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.5 1.2

1.1

1.0 1 0.5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 2.5 2

2.0

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5 1.5

1.9

1.3

1.3

1.0

1.0 1 0.5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

Single Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 70

65

60

59

54

47

47

50

58 50

46

45

47 42

41

40

38

30 20 10 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 80 70

68

70

60

67 53

57

58

54

63

62 57 45

44

50

38

40 30 20 10 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Average days on market for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.

Single Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60% 49.0%

50% 40%

38.7% 34.4%

31.0%

Mar '12

Apr '12

40.6%

36.8% 31.4%

32.4%

32.8%

Aug '12

Sep '12

37.6%

35.8%

34.8%

Dec '12

Jan '13

38.7%

30% 20% 10% 0% May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 60% 50.8% 50% 40%

33.9%

33.3%

Mar '12

Apr '12

37.1%

36.8% 33.8%

33.0%

32.8%

Aug '12

Sep '12

36.7%

35.1%

Oct '12

Nov '12

37.5%

40.4%

32.9%

30% 20% 10% 0% May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

Single Family Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 110% 105.1% 105% 100%

101.2%

102.9%

101.4%

100.0%

103.1%

102.6%

102.5%

100.8%

99.4%

95%

103.6%

105.2%

90.9%

90% 85% 80% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Condominiums â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 105%

104.2%

104%

103.1%

103%

102.3%

102%

101.0%

101% 100% 99%

98.9%

98.7%

Mar '12

Apr '12

100.5%

100.5%

100.2%

100.7%

100.6% 99.2%

99.5%

98% 97% 96% May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for condominiums in San Francisco.

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

Delving into San Franciscoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods. District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff. District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights. District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview. District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park. District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks. District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition. District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights. District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center. District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach, South of Market, Yerba Buena. District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood, Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

San Francisco Snapshot (SFH): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Median Price Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

District 1

$

48,144,388

$

60,958,100

27%

45

38

-16%

58

36

-39%

$

830,000

$ 1,156,250

39%

District 2

$

65,866,300

$

70,493,988

7%

93

80

-14%

72

52

-27%

$

675,000

$

795,000

18%

District 3

$

21,841,499

$

13,973,400

-36%

41

22

-46%

75

44

-41%

$

469,000

$

598,500

28%

District 4

$

47,508,630

$

72,888,400

53%

55

62

13%

65

38

-42%

$

825,000

$

947,500

15%

District 5

$ 113,198,751

$ 124,736,153

10%

72

68

-6%

64

40

-36%

$ 1,470,000

$ 1,584,336

8%

District 6

$

11,630,000

$

14,345,000

23%

10

6

-40%

62

57

-9%

$ 1,092,500

$ 2,450,000

124%

District 7

$

92,802,500

$

80,208,999

-14%

23

19

-17%

53

58

9%

$ 2,850,000

$ 4,000,000

40%

District 8

$

12,298,000

$

10,020,000

-19%

5

4

-20%

116

64

-45%

$ 1,843,000

$ 2,900,000

57%

District 9

$

33,558,900

$

46,976,500

40%

46

52

13%

61

43

-29%

$

665,000

$

859,500

29%

District 10

$

63,542,036

$

67,927,699

7%

145

127

-12%

73

35

-52%

$

440,000

$

550,000

25%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot (Condos): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Median Price Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

District 1

$

23,790,000

$

23,613,000

-1%

35

30

-14%

70

60

-15%

$

655,000

$

776,000

18%

District 2

$

6,330,500

$

8,605,000

36%

11

10

-9%

88

33

-63%

$

555,000

$

825,000

49%

District 3

$

3,430,388

$

3,402,088

-1%

13

9

-31%

99

21

-79%

$

254,000

$

332,500

31%

District 4

$

5,584,550

$

6,115,269

10%

13

12

-8%

107

69

-35%

$

350,000

$

407,250

16%

District 5

$

68,387,337

$

61,099,888

-11%

75

64

-15%

61

42

-31%

$

844,000

$

907,500

8%

District 6

$

28,167,800

$

40,449,999

44%

41

52

27%

81

40

-51%

$

685,000

$

732,500

7%

District 7

$

56,004,735

$

76,902,000

37%

50

65

30%

69

46

-34%

$

942,025

$ 1,085,000

15%

District 8

$

77,031,778

$

66,720,918

-13%

99

72

-27%

89

47

-47%

$

605,000

$

754,750

25%

District 9

$

87,762,034

$ 154,288,441

76%

131

163

24%

80

45

-44%

$

605,000

$

839,000

39%

District 10

$

5,642,398

$

-17%

17

13

-24%

162

93

-43%

$

295,985

$

359,000

21%

4,662,000

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SAN FRANCISCO A Member Of Real Living

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot (SFH): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Under $1 million

$ 241,744,553

$ 205,152,187

-15%

411

309

-25%

71

42

-42%

$

$1 million - $3 million

$ 189,223,951

$ 232,888,753

23%

110

143

30%

55

41

-25%

Over $3 million

$

$ 124,487,299

57%

14

26

86%

68

49

-28%

79,422,500

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

660,000

15%

$ 1,542,500

$ 1,400,000

-9%

$ 4,670,000

$ 4,375,000

-6%

574,000

$

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot (Condos): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Under $1 million

$ 235,476,177

$ 229,314,078

-3%

401

341

-15%

85

51

-40%

$

$1 million - $2 million

$

98,305,343

$ 177,775,525

81%

74

134

81%

63

36

-43%

Over $2 million

$

28,350,000

$

37%

10

15

50%

79

39

-50%

38,769,000

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2012. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

700,000

19%

$ 1,261,000

$ 1,280,750

2%

$ 2,700,500

$ 2,299,000

-15%

586,000

$


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA COUNTY

Rick Laws Senior Vice President, Sonoma County 707.547.3800 rick.laws@pacunion.com 3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Sonoma County: Q1 Results With a limited supply of homes for sale, new listings in Sonoma County typically received multiple offers as soon as they came on the market in the first quarter – except for those homes that landed pre-emptive offers and sold quickly in an off-market deal. In such an environment, it comes as no surprise that homes sold quicker and at higher prices than we’ve seen in many years. Sellers have a distinct advantage in the current marketplace. In a more balanced market a buyer typically might attach contingencies to an offer, making the deal dependent on a pest inspection or an appraisal, for example. Lately, however, we’ve seen buyers offering contingencies to the seller. These include offers that give sellers time to find a new home and waive inspections and appraisals, as well as all-cash deals well above the asking price. In such a tricky marketplace, with many buyers willing to accept greater risk to close a deal, the expertise of a local real estate professional can make a huge difference in the outcome. Distressed properties, such as foreclosures and bank-owned homes, had been a dominant force in local real estate in recent years, but few such homes were available in the first quarter as the supply began to dry up. We saw an increased interest in second homes, and more homeowners looking to move up to higher-priced properties. Looking Forward: We expect to see more sellers enter the market as they realize how much equity their homes have accumulated over the past year. Multiple offers will remain the norm until the supply bottleneck eases. Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes, farms, and ranches in Sonoma County.

Median Sales Price $450,000 $385,000

$400,000 $345,000 $350,000

$319,000

$329,500

$348,000 $348,500

$355,000 $367,000

$375,000

$389,500

$365,000

$380,000

$398,750

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 3.5 3

2.8

2.9 2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2 1.9

2

2.0

2.3

1.9 1.6

1.5 1 0.5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 140 120

120 106

100

98

94

98 90

90

93

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

101

99

100

99

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

93

80 60 40 20 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 42.4%

45% 40%

35.2%

35% 30%

31.0% 25.8%

27.1%

27.2%

25%

27.2% 24.4%

27.1%

25.6%

Aug '12

Sep '12

27.8% 24.1%

24.9%

Nov '12

Dec '12

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Oct '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 97% 94.5%

95%

94.3%

94.8%

94.5%

93.3%

94% 93%

96.1%

95.9%

95.9%

96%

94.9% 94.0%

93.9%

92.1%

92% 91%

90.6%

90% 89% 88% 87% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Source: BAREIS, October Terradatum, April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for SFH and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA COUNTY A Member Of Real Living

A Closer Look at Sonoma County

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Median Price Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Healdsburg

$

33,429,600

$

31,197,685

-7%

43

39

-9%

175

125

-28%

$

458,000

$

505,000

10%

Petaluma

$

66,949,278

$

68,429,929

2%

171

135

-21%

126

79

-38%

$

340,000

$

425,000

25%

Rohnert Park

$

19,851,345

$

18,875,299

-5%

69

53

-23%

108

59

-46%

$

279,000

$

355,000

27%

Santa Rosa

$ 166,768,143

$ 163,108,717

-2%

491

394

-20%

112

85

-24%

$

295,000

$

356,500

21%

Sebastopol

$

19,012,818

$

29,895,386

57%

43

48

12%

106

103

-2%

$

399,000

$

526,500

32%

Windsor

$

26,429,427

$

23,157,095

-12%

80

63

-21%

121

94

-23%

$

322,500

$

360,000

12%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Under $1 million

Homes Sold

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

$ 400,398,373

$ 382,389,424

-4%

1,127

$

17%

29

$1 million and $ over

66,650,686

77,974,806

Q1 '12

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Q1 '13

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

927

-18%

119

91

-23%

$

43

48%

189

222

18%

$ 1,500,100

315,000

Q1 '13

% change

375,000

19%

$ 1,360,000

-9%

$


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA VALLEY

Jill Silvas Branch Executive, Sonoma Valley 707.939.9500 jill.silvas@pacunion.com 640 Broadway Street | Sonoma, CA 95476


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA VALLEY A Member Of Real Living

Sonoma Valley: Q1 Results After a brisk end to 2012, exhausted buyers and sellers stayed somewhat on the sidelines in January before venturing out again in February. By March, aided by sunshine and little rain, the Sonoma Valley real estate scene was as busy as ever, with buyers competing to submit offers and an increasing numbers of homes selling above their asking prices. Homes priced from $500,000 to $800,000 – a price range that had been weaker for some time – saw robust sales in the region. Second-home buyers were active, along with investors who snapped up properties to convert into income-producing rentals. Short sales, foreclosures, and bank-owned homes had been major players in recent years, but their numbers appear to be decreasing rapidly. Sellers started returning to the market by the end of the quarter, though not consistently, with a strong supply of new listings one week and few the next. Looking Forward: After a steady supply of news stories on the shortage of local listings, sellers are getting the message that home prices are increasing and so is their equity – and historically low mortgage rates can help them move up to more expensive homes at a surprisingly good price. We expect home prices and listings to continue rising throughout the spring and summer selling season. Multiple offers will most likely remain the norm in the second quarter, and possibly beyond, before we see solid proof of a more balanced market. Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

Median Sales Price $550,000 $475,000

$500,000 $450,000 $400,000

$392,500 $367,000

$458,500 $391,250

$392,500

$457,500

$490,100

$459,000 $463,750

$401,000

$397,000

$382,875

$350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

Months’ Supply of Inventory 5 4.5

4.3

4

3.9

3.9 3.6

3.6

3.5

2.8

3

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.4

2.4

Nov '12

Dec '12

2.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA VALLEY A Member Of Real Living

Average Days on the Market 160 140

144 129

141

118

118

110

120

122

100

107

101

96

88

84

80

80 60 40 20 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS,October SFMLS, October April3, 3,4,2012 2012 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract 35%

32.1% 27.7%

30% 25% 20%

28.8%

26.6% 22.8%

21.7% 20.3%

23.7%

18.2%

17.6%

21.4%

21.2%

Dec '12

Jan '13

17.3%

15% 10% 5% 0% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 100% 97.5%

98%

95.7%

96%

94.3%

94%

91.9%

92% 90%

91.6% 90.2%

90.1% 88.6%

91.2%

91.2%

Oct '12

Nov '12

91.7% 90.3%

88.8%

88% 86% 84% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Source: Terradatum, BAREIS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a % of original asking price (all adjustments) for SFH, condos, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

SONOMA VALLEY A Member Of Real Living


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

TAHOE/TRUCKEE

Sally Gardner Branch Executive, Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 sally.gardner@pacunion.com


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

TAHOE/TRUCKEE Tahoe/Truckee: Q1 Results The real estate market in Pacific Union’s Tahoe/Truckee region mirrored conditions in the Bay Area in the first quarter: a shortage of available homes, a surplus of buyers, and multiple offers the norm for fairly priced properties, whether modest condominiums or luxurious Sierra estates. Homes for sale in the Tahoe Donner and Truckee market were few and far between, with only eight condos available in January and February. It was the lowest inventory in at least eight years, driving prices noticeably higher. The quarter saw an increased number of cash sales – for second homes, not investment properties – and very few short sales and other distressed properties. Ski communities were especially popular with homebuyers. Tahoe/Truckee is a popular destination for Bay Area residents looking for vacation homes, and those that sold quickest, and at the highest prices, were in move-in condition – updated and remodeled. As a rule, second-home owners come to the region for its outdoor activities and unmatched scenery, not to remodel. Looking Forward: The last few weeks of the first quarter saw an increase in home listings, and we expect to see even more in the spring and summer. The second quarter has always been a busy season for homebuyers, and the improving economy could lift sales throughout the year. However, we still expect to see multiple offers for attractive properties, and home prices should continue to rise throughout 2013. Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe.

Single Family Homes – Median Sales Price $550,000

$488,750

$500,000 $450,000 $400,000

$465,000

$452,500 $449,000 $449,000

$465,000

$450,000

$499,900

$475,000

$469,250

$432,500 $399,000

$405,000

$350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Median Sales Price $400,000

$377,000

$360,000 $326,000 $320,000

$350,000

$307,500 $288,000

$300,000 $244,000

$290,000

$311,950

$235,000

$228,000

$250,000

$295,000

$210,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

TAHOE/TRUCKEE Single Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory 9.4

10 9 8

6.9

7.7

7.4

6.4

7 6 5

6.6

6.6

5.1 4.0

4.4

6.1

4.6

4

2.8

3 2 1 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory 16

14.4

14.3

14 12

11.5

10.8 9.6

10

7.8

7.4

8

8.2 6.9

6.9 5.5

6

6.3

6.2

4 2 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single Family Homes – Average Days on the Market 250 198 200 164 150

127

137

126

113 87

100

117

115

Sep '12

Oct '12

102

109

102

74

50 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Nov '12

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

TAHOE/TRUCKEE Condominiums – Average Days on the Market 300

251

250 204 200

180

165 130

150

144

130

156

162

154

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

173

167

Feb '13

Mar '13

89

100 50 0 Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Average days on market for condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 23.3%

25%

21.7% 18.0%

20% 15.0% 15%

13.4%

12.8%

12.5% 10.5%

10.9%

May '12

Jun '12

13.3%

14.8%

13.3% 10.9%

10%

5%

0% Mar '12

Apr '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract 14% 11.6% 12%

11.2%

11.4%

10.8%

9.6%

10% 8%

13.2%

12.3%

8.5%

12.2%

9.4%

8.5% 7.5%

6.7%

6% 4% 2% 0% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

TAHOE/TRUCKEE Single Family Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 94%

92.2% 91.0%

92%

89.7%

90%

89.5% 86.6%

88%

87.5%

87.0%

87.6%

86% 84% 82%

89.7%

89.0%

83.5%

83.3%

82.2%

80% 78% 76% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Dec '12

Jan '13

Feb '13

Mar '13

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price 94.8%

96% 93.0%

94% 92% 90%

89.9%

90.4%

92.3%

91.6%

89.6%

88%

86.0%

86%

88.7%

88.7%

Dec '12

Jan '13

92.3%

92.0%

Feb '13

Mar '13

84.7%

84% 82% 80% 78% Mar '12

Apr '12

May '12

Jun '12

Jul '12

Aug '12

Sep '12

Oct '12

Nov '12

Source: Terradatum, SFMLS, October April3,4,2012 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

TAHOE/TRUCKEE A Closer Look at Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe/Truckee: Single-Family Homes, Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Q1 '13

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Alpine Meadows

$

938,000

$

1,776,382

89%

2

2

0%

264

136

-49%

$

469,000

$

888,191

89%

Donner Lake

$

2,870,000

$

2,006,000

-30%

7

4

-43%

77

96

25%

$

310,000

$

544,500

76%

Donner Summit

$

2,505,500

$

2,349,500

-6%

9

9

0%

183

152

-17%

$

222,500

$

250,000

12%

Martis Camp

$

2,850,000

$

9,365,000

229%

1

3

200%

27

106

294%

$

2,850,000

$

2,865,000

1%

North Lake Tahoe

$

29,990,038

$

21,262,348

-29%

37

34

-8%

151

125

-17%

$

336,600

$

389,950

16%

NorthStar

$

4,970,000

$

9,028,000

82%

7

6

-14%

66

342

418%

$

570,000

$

1,285,250

125%

Squaw Valley $

4,295,000

$

3,215,000

-25%

4

2

-50%

417

198

-53%

$

1,200,000

$

1,607,500

34%

Tahoe City

$

14,342,076

$

13,592,000

-5%

17

14

-18%

98

89

-9%

$

650,000

$

815,000

25%

Tahoe Donner

$

31,202,411

$

27,411,200

-12%

63

52

-17%

117

86

-26%

$

442,000

$

499,950

13%

Truckee

$

14,039,815

$

26,678,192

90%

39

50

28%

89

134

51%

$

315,000

$

435,000

38%

West Shore

$

14,993,010

$

10,057,500

-33%

31

20

-35%

134

139

3%

$

325,000

$

356,000

10%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Tahoe/Truckee: Condominiums, Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013 Sales Volume Q1 '12

Alpine Meadows

$

210,000

Donner Lake

$

70,000

Donner Summit

Q1 '13 n/a

$

n/a

n/a

438,736

Homes Sold

Avg. Days on Market

Median Price

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

Q1 '13

% change

Q1 '12

n/a

1

0

n/a

101

n/a

n/a

$

210,000

527%

1

3

200%

1441

281

-80%

$

70,000

n/a

0

0

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Q1 '13 n/a

$

n/a

n/a

% change n/a

158,736

127%

n/a

North Lake Tahoe

$

2,354,850

$

4,208,350

79%

12

11

-8%

133

174

31%

$

191,500

$

302,000

58%

NorthStar

$

7,305,100

$

17,533,400

140%

11

26

136%

113

177

57%

$

575,000

$

324,450

-44%

Squaw Valley $

1,420,000

$

6,106,000

330%

4

10

150%

129

231

79%

$

332,500

$

511,250

54%

Tahoe City

$

1,032,500

$

120,000

-88%

2

1

-50%

132

273

108%

$

516,250

$

120,000

-77%

Tahoe Donner

$

1,852,000

$

1,594,550

-14%

8

6

-25%

119

22

-82%

$

265,500

$

232,525

-12%

Truckee

$

2,023,900

$

1,760,000

-13%

6

5

-17%

179

70

-61%

$

259,450

$

305,000

18%

n/a

$

9,451,000

n/a

0

4

n/a

n/a

158

n/a

n/a

$

2,662,500

n/a

West Shore

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


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