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W ld Silver World Sil Survey S 2011 Philip Klapwijk

Chairman GFMS Limited Chairman, New York, York 7th April 2011


GFMS Limited 

The leading consultancy specialising in precious metals markets research.

Large and experienced team of 25 analysts and consultants consultants.

Not just desk-based: Over 300 companies and organisations in more o e tthan a 30 countries cou t es visited s ted by our ou personnel pe so e in tthe e last ast 12 months.

Annual Gold,, Silver,, Platinum & Palladium and Copper pp Surveys. y

Also, weekly, monthly, quarterly & bi-annual reports plus forecasts and a wide range of consultancy services across all the precious and base metals & steel.

For more information visit: www.gfms.co.uk or email: charles.demeester@gfms.co.uk


World Silver Survey 2011  Prices  Demand  Supply  Investment  Outlook

for 2011


The Silver Price 40 US$/oz 35

US S$/oz

30

Intra-Average Year Year--on on-- Intra year period

2010

20.19

37.6%

78.4%

Jan--Mar 2011 Jan

31.86

88.2%

23.5%

25 20 15 10 5 Jan-06

Source: Thomson Reuters

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11


US Dollar and Euro Prices 40

Intra-Average Year Year--on on-- Intra year period

€/oz

US$/ /oz and Euro €/ /oz

35 30

2010

15.23

44.6%

92.0%

Jan--Mar 2011 Jan

23.20

89.5%

15.9%

25 20 15

US$

10

Euro

5 0 Jan-06 Source: Thomson Reuters

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11


Silver, Gold and Base Metals Prices 220 silver

In ndex (Ja an 10=10 00)

200 180

tin

160 nickel 140

copper

120

gold

100

zinc

80 60 Jan-10

p Apr-10

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11


Quarterly Correlation of Daily Silver Prices with Gold and Copper Prices 1.0 Gold

Corrrelation C Coefficieent

0.8 06 0.6 0.4 0.2 00 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Jan-96 Source: GFMS

Copper

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10


Gold / Silver Ratio 19681968-2010

100 90 80 70 60 50

Average 53:1

40 30 20 10 0 1968 Source: GFMS Ltd.

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008


Gold / Silver Ratio 2001– 2001–20112011-to to--date (basis weekly average prices)

90 80 70

Average 62:1

60 50 40

Jan-Mar 2011 = 44:1

30 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: GFMS Ltd.


Real and Nominal Silver Prices (real US$ price in constant 2010 terms)

60 1980 average: $55.53 $55.53

50

1980’s peak of $49.45 equals to over $130 in real 2010 terms

US$/oz

40

2010 average: $20.19 $20 19

30 20

Real Price

10

Nominal Price 0 1975

1980

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010


World Silver Survey 2011  Prices  Demand  Supply  Investment  Outlook

for 2011


World Silver Fabrication Demand in 2010 Total Fabrication Demand in 2010: +12.8% to 878.8 Moz Coins & Medals 12% Silverware S ve wa e 6%

Jewelry 19%

Photography 8%

Source: GFMS Ltd.

Industrial Applications 55%


World Silver Fabrication Annual Changes: 2010 less 2009 100

Million o M ounces

80 60 40 20 0 -20 Industrial Photography A li i Applications Source: GFMS Ltd.

Jewelry

Silverware

Coins & M d l Medals


World Silver Fabrication 10--Year 10 Y Ch Changes: 2001 2001--2010

200 150

+39% + 233%

Million n ouncess

100 50 0 -4%

-50

- 53%

-100 -150

- 66%

-200 Industrial Photography Applications Source: GFMS Ltd.

Jewelry

Silverware

Coins & Medals


Industrial Fabrication by EndEnd-Use 1990: 272.6 Moz Other

2010: 487.4 Moz

E & E excluding Ph t Voltaics Photo V lt i

E & E excluding Photo Voltaics Other

Photo Voltaics Brazing Alloys andd Solders S ld Ethylene Oxide

Source: GFMS Ltd.

Ethylene Oxide Brazing Alloys and Solders

Photo Voltaics


Industrial Fabrication 500

Millio on ouncees

400

300

200

100

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: GFMS Ltd.


Annu ual % ch hange

Economic Indicators 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 12% -12% -14%

Global GDP Growth

OECD Industrial Production Growth

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: IMF, OECD


Numb ber of sh hipmentss (million ns)

Global Semiconductor Billings 350

Other Asia/Pacific

300

Japan

250

Europe Americas

200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: SIA


Industrial Fabrication 

Industrial offtake rebounded byy 20.7% to 487.4 Moz in 2010, a fraction shy of the prepre-crisis record in 2008. Main drivers of the strong rise were continued robust emerging market economies growth, industrialized world’s recoveryy from recession and pipeline pp restocking. g Most areas of endend-uses enjoyed gains, particularly in photo voltaic, EO catalysts and the automobile industry. The only main area that disappointed was construction in industrialized countries. All regions, bar the Indian SubSub-continent, saw gains, with those in Japan being the greatest. greatest


Jewelry & Silverware Fabrication 300

Million n ounces

250

Silverware

200 150

Jewelry

100 50 0

2001 Source: GFMS Ltd.

2003

2005

2007

2009


Jewellery Fabrication: Silver, Gold, Platinum

% chaange dem mand : 20001 to 2010

10--Year 10 Y Percentage P t Ch Changes in i Demand: D d 2001 to t 2010 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Silver Source: GFMS Ltd.

Gold

Platinum


Jewelry & Silverware 

Jewelry: Demand rose by 5.1% to 167.0 Moz, its first increase of substance since 2003 2003. Higher offtake was primarily due to rising consumer spending in many emerging i markets, k t particularly ti l l China, Chi and d a recovery in i consumption in industrialized countries. Demand d was also l supported d by b substitution b gains at the h expense of gold. Silverware: Offtake dropped by a hefty 14% to 50.3 Moz, a Silverware: result of lower demand in India on higher prices coupled with ongoing structural decline in western markets, although part of the fall was offset by gains in China and Russia.


Consumer Film and Digital Camera Sales 5

160

Billlions of rrolls/disk ks

Digital Cameras

4

140 120 100

3

80

2

60 40

1

20

0

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Photofinishing News Inc., Lyra Research Inc.

Digital C Camera a Sales (m millions))

Consumer Film


Photography g p y 

Photographic demand for silver posted its smallest loss in nine years in 2010, falling by 8% to 72.7 Moz. Its share of total fabrication demand fell to just above 8%, compared to 30% in 1990. The more modest decline in 2010 was due to only a slight drop in demand from the medical sector, the l largest t area these th d days off photophoto h t -related l t d silver il demand. d d In contrast, global demand for film rolls fell by 25%, driven by ongoing migration to digital systems.


World Silver Survey 2011  Prices  Demand  Supply  Investment  Outlook

for 2011


World Silver Supply in 2010 Total Supply in 2010: Up 14.6% at 1,056.8 Moz Hedging 6% Scrap 20%

Government Sales 4%

Source: GFMS Ltd.

Mine Production 70%


World Silver Supply 100

Annual Changes: 2010 less 2009

Million n ounces

80 60 40 20 0 -20 Mine Production

Source: GFMS Ltd.

Government Sales

Old Silver Scrap

Producer Hedging


World Silver Mine Production Growth of 129.7 Moz or 21% from 2001-2010

800 700

Million n ounces

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 Source: GFMS Ltd.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010


Mine Production by Source Metal Winners and Losers: 2010 less 2009

14 12 Million n ouncess

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 4 -6 Lead/Zinc Source: GFMS Ltd.

Primary

Other

Copper

Gold


Mine Production by Region

Winners and Losers: 2010 less 2009 12

Millio on ouncees

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

North America*

Rest of the W ld World

Source: GFMS Ltd.; *includes Mexico

Asia & CIS

Latin America


Mine Production 

World silver mine output rose by 2%, or 17.6 Moz last year to a new record high of 735 year, 735.9 9 Moz Moz.

An increase of 5% was recorded from both the lead/zinc and primary silver sectors.

Many increases came not from 2010 starts, but from the build up of production at projects which began operations in 2009, 2009 such as the Peñasquito sulfide plant and Palmarejo.

Largest gains seen in Mexico (+15.3 Moz), China (+10.0 Moz) and also Australia (+7.4 Moz), with the most noticeable decline in Peru ((-7.4 Moz).


Producer Hedging g g 

2010 saw a marked return to net producer hedging, with a net 61 61.1 1 Moz of supply throughout the year. year The bulk of this occurred in the fourth quarter. I the In th main i hedging h d i was conducted d t d by b byby b -product d t silver il producers, to risk manage a nonnon-core revenue stream. I Important t t additions dditi to t the th global l b l hedge h d book b k seen from f Frisco, Barrick and Volcan. Volcan. Four consecutive years off d de-hedging deh d activity h had d left l f the h end--2009 hedge book at a two end two--decade low. As such th there was littl little in i the th way off deliveries d li i to t provide id an offset, as several producers moved to lock in higher prices i att th the ttailtailil-end d off 2010 2010.


Scrap Supply 

S Scrap supply l increased i d by b 14% to t a new record d high hi h off 215 Moz in 2010 2010,, despite a continued slide in silver recovered from photographic applications. Much of the rise was due to higher g scrap p receipts p from the industrial sector, itself a result of tighter environmental legislation eg s at o coup coupled ed with t a ssharp a p rise se in ssilver e p prices. ces Recycling from jewelry and silverware also rose notably, particularly in the more price sensitive developing world world.


Net Government Sales 100

Others Russia

M Million ouncess

80

China

60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: GFMS Ltd.


Government Sales 

Government sales estimated at 44.8 44 8 Moz in 2010, 2010 up by a massive 188% on the previous year’s level. R i accounted Russia t d for f th the bulk b lk off governmentt sales l and d apparent disposals from the country nearly doubled in 2010. Other official sales last year were small scale and related to the melting of old coins. Total government silver stocks conservatively estimated at 110 Moz at endend-2010.


Identified Bullion Stocks (end (end--year) Others Government

1200

Comex European Dealers* l *

Millio on ouncees

1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: GFMS Ltd.; *includes ETF holdings

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010


Market Shifts From “Deficit” to “Surplus”

Milllion ouncces

1000 950

DEMAND

900

(fabrication demand)

850 800 750 700

SUPPLY (mine production + scrap)

650 600 550 1990 Source: GFMS

1995

2000

2005

2010


World Silver Survey 2011  Prices  Demand  Supply  Investment  Outlook

for 2011


Silver (Dis)Investment and Real Price 200

25

Million n ouncess

20

Net Investment

120

Real Silver Price

80

15

40 0

10

-40 -80

5

Net Disinvestment

120 -120 -160

0 1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Source: Silver Institute, GFMS Ltd. Investment refers to the Implied Net (Dis)Investment series only.

rea al silver price in n 2010 d dollars/ooz

160


World o d Investment*

300

Value of Investment

5.0

200

40 4.0

150

3.0

100

2.0

50

1.0

0

0.0 2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

*World Investment is the sum of Implied Net (Dis)Investment and Coins & Medals. Source:: GFMS Source

US$ Billion U

Million ounces s

250

6.0


ETF Silver Holdings 40

700 600

400

35

Other

30

Z端rcher Kantonalbank ETF Securities

25

iShares Silver Trust Silver Price

20 0

300

15

200

10

100

5

0

0

Apr-06 06

Apr-07 0

Source: Respective ETF issuers

Apr-08 08

Apr-09 09

Apr-10 0

US$/ /oz

Million n ounces s

500

Sprott Physical Silver Trust


Investors’* Net Positions in Comex Silver Futures 4000

Average Positions (Moz) 2010 Jan Mar 2011 Jan-Mar

264 257

Comex Settlement Price

80

3600 3200 2800

60

2400 2000

40

1600 1200

20

800 400

0 Jan-05

0 Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

*Non-commercial & non-reportable net positions in futures taken as proxy for investors’ positions. Source: CFTC

cents s/oz

Neet positio ons (conttracts, th housandss)

100


World Silver Survey 2011  Prices  Demand  Supply  Investment  Outlook

for 2011


Outlook for 2011: Supply 

Mine production will record another increase in 2011, with output t t expected t d tto reach h some 790 Moz. M Key K to t this thi will ill be b an acceleration of growth in Mexico, though widespread increases are forecast forecast. Net producer hedging is likely to remain a strong component of the supply side at around 40 Moz in 2011. 2011 Scrap supply is forecast to increase in 2011, due to higher industrial and jewelry scrap. Government sales are difficult to predict, opportunistic sales could emerge on any price rallies. Overall, supply currently projected to rise a further +/+/- 3% this yyear or roughly g y 30 Moz.


Outlook for 2011: Demand 

Growth in industrial demand will slow significantly in 2011, owing to a slower global GDP growth and normalization of stock levels. However, higher base means +/+/- 40 Moz could be added to demand, easily taking it to a new record level. Photographic demand will drop again, although this will have little impact as current level of demand already so low. Jewelry l is likely l k l to rise further f h in 2011, chiefly h fl as benefits b f off ongoing recovery in economy and higher gold prices should outweigh the negative of higher silver prices.

Silverware should fall, a result of ongoing secular shifts plus high prices.

Total fabrication demand in 2011 forecast to increase by 5%5%-10%.

The silver market will remain in substantial surplus this year but this metal will be absorbed by investors at much higher average prices.


Outlook for 2011: Silver Price  

Average spot price in Q1 2011 was $31.86 basis the London ‘fix’. This average was up no less than 88% year year--on on--year compared to the average price recorded in the same period of 2010. The gold:silver ratio has fallen sharply to 37:1 just recently, compared with an average of 62:1 in 2010. Silver’s traditional high price volatility and trading range are factors to consider: id Already Al d yearyear-to t -date tod t $13 ttrading di range ($26.68($26.68 ($26 68-$39.63) $39 63) and d average Q1 2011 price volatility 39.6% (gold 12.9%). Investment will remain the main driver of the price price. Silver’s Silver s greater volatility in a smaller and less liquid market than gold is attractive to certain investors, with many now eyeing the allall-timetime-high of $50/oz. 2011 may well see silver reach or even exceed $50/oz, in part basis strong probability of gold peaking comfortably above $1,600/oz.


Thank yyou for yyour attention! Disclaimer While every effort has been made to guarantee the accuracy of the information in this document, GFMS Limited cannot guarantee such accuracy accuracy. Furthermore Furthermore, the material contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient or organization. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or as an offer to buy or sell any commodities, securities or related financial instruments. No representation or warranty warranty, either express or implied implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, accuracy completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. GFMS Limited do not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising either directly or indirectly from the use of this document.

Copyright GFMS Ltd. – 7th April 2011. This document is the copyright of GFMS Ltd. No part of this document may be reproduced, d d stored t d in i a retrieval ti l system t or transmitted t itt d in i any form f or by b any means without the prior written permission of the copyright owners.

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