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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 2017-18

Turkey

United States

Uncertainties are high

Stronger growth ahead

GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to under 3% in 2016, but is projected to pick up gradually to around 3.75% by 2018. The Turkish economy continues to face geopolitical headwinds and unsettled political conditions, after having weathered a coup attempt in July and engaged in military operations in Syria.

Economic growth is set to strengthen in 2017 and 2018, as an assumed fiscal stimulus boosts the economy and the effects of dollar appreciation, declines in energy investment and a substantial inventory correction abate. Employment has risen steadily, although the pace is expected to ease somewhat in 2017. A pick-up in wages will further support growth, offsetting somewhat sluggish external demand.

Uncertainties are high but fiscal, prudential and monetary policies are supportive and should spur household consumption from late 2016 onwards. New and generous incentives have been introduced to stimulate business investment, which, however, has stayed subdued so far. For private investment to pick up, it is important to durably restore confidence by implementing highpriority structural and institutional reforms. GDP growth 2013

2016

Current prices TRY billion

1 567.3

2017

2018

% real change

2.9

3.3

3.8

OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Monetary policy has remained very accommodative, consistent with inflation running below target. As economic slack is eliminated and pressure on resources emerges, policy rates will gradually increase. Monetary policy needs to tread a cautious path. Some measures of inflation expectations have edged down and persistently undershooting the inflation target could entrench lowered expectations. On the other hand, sustained low interest rates create financial market risks, which may require stronger macro-prudential action. More supportive fiscal policy eases the burden on monetary policy. GDP growth

United Kingdom

2015

Brexit reduces growth prospects

18 036.7

2016

2017

Current prices USD billion

The Brexit referendum vote has reduced growth prospects and increased volatility, as reflected by the large currency depreciation. Monetary policy has mitigated the immediate impact of the shock by stabilising financial markets and shoring up consumer confidence. This projection assumes the UK will operate with a most favoured nation status after 2019, but there is considerable uncertainty about this, which will increasingly weigh on growth, and in particular private investment, including foreign direct investment. Higher inflation is projected to hit households’ purchasing power and to reduce corporate margins, weakening private consumption and investment. As growth slows, the unemployment rate is projected to rise. Macroeconomic policies need to be expansionary. Inflation is set to exceed the target of 2%, but the monetary policy stance is expected to be unchanged as the inflationary impact of currency depreciation should be temporary. The latest government plans released in the Autumn Statement indicate a slower pace of fiscal consolidation and some increase in public investment. A more significant increase in public investment would support demand in the near term and boost supply in the longer term. With a weak economic outlook, further raises in the minimum wage should be considered prudently.

2018

% real change

1.5

2.3

3.0

Power of prognosis The OECD Economic Outlook

For forward-thinking decision makers

ISBN 978-92-64-26758-9

www.oecd.org/bookshop op GDP growth 2015

2016

Current prices GBP billion

1 870.7

2017

2018

% real change

2.0

1.2

1.0

OECD Observer No 308 Q4 2016

51

OECD Observer No 308 Q4 2016  
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