AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO ( 2010 VS 2030 )
Choice Options for a Changing Demography Today’s K-12 reforms do not begin to match the urgency of our growing need for improved results. Now more than ever, it is critical to improve public schools through all possible means. State government policies, if skillfully leveraged, can incentivize higher levels of achievement and discourage abject failure in education. One of the most cost-effective ways is through educational choice.
Age dependency ratios serve as a measure of societal strain because both younger and older people utilize public services for education and health care. Essentially, it is a measure of the number of people riding in the cart compared to the number pushing the cart. Economists have found dependency ratios to be predictive of economic growth. When ratios are high, you have a high percentage of people out of the workforce and a relatively small percentage of people trying to cover the costs of their education, retirement, and health care. [The age dependency ratio is derived by dividing the combined under-18 and 65-and-over populations by the 18-to-64 population and multiplying by 100.]
working. Note however that many of the working-age Oklahomans of 2030 sit in Oklahoma classrooms right now. These are the same people who will struggle to pay the taxes needed for health and education spending in the near future. The 2013 fourth-graders mentioned above, for instance, will be in their mid-20s in 2030. The fourth-graders from 1998 will be in their early 40s. Both cohorts had only 30 percent of proficient readers in fourth grade. Oklahomans should feel the gravest possible level of concern. It is an unambiguous blessing to have multiple generations of Americans alive at the same time, but the American social welfare state is not prepared for it at either the state or federal level. The most immediate need—and the one thing that policymakers could do now—is to improve the quality of the K-12 system. Another
15 years like 1998-2013 will prove incredibly costly for Oklahoma’s future. Oklahoma’s growing health care spending threatens to strain all other types of spending as the population ages. Spending on K-12 education is guaranteed by the Oklahoma Constitution and is supported by the public. It faces a terrific strain in what looks to be an era where health needs increase and revenue growth slows, but it is here to stay. The organization of the delivery system, however, badly needs to change to meet the needs of the 21st century. Changing age demography will require a rethinking of the entire social welfare state, but the most urgent need will be to improve K-12 outcomes. The challenge for Oklahoma policymakers lies in driving an increase in both the academic outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of K-12 delivery.
Digital and Blended Learning Blended learning models of education leverage the power of technology to accelerate learning and reduce costs. These models and online learning can provide for greater efficiencies in delivering education to students. Outcome-based Funding Develop policies to reward schools and teachers for academic success rather than simply seat time. Policymakers should pay for success, not just for promises. Charter Schools Public charter schools have displayed the ability to return higher levels of return on investment than district schools. Charter schools have also reduced the need for district facility spending on new buildings. Education Savings Accounts ESA programs give parents choices not just between schools, but also between methods of education.