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ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013 Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses) Named Storms (NS) (12.0) Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) Hurricanes (H) (6.5) Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%)

Issue Date 10 April 2013 18 95 9 40 4 9 165 175

Issue Date 3 June 2013 18 95 9 40 4 9 165 175

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%) 2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%) 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20째N, 60-88째W) 1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)

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2013 STATE IMPACT PROBABILITIES (NUMBERS IN PARENTHESES ARE LONG-PERIOD AVERAGES) State Texas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Florida Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Virginia Maryland Delaware New Jersey New York Connecticut Rhode Island Massachusetts New Hampshire Maine Whole US

Hurricane 50% (33%) 47% (30%) 18% (11%) 26% (16%) 71% (51%) 19% (11%) 28% (17%) 44% (28%) 11% (6%) 2% (1%) 2% (1%) 2% (1%) 13% (8%) 12% (7%) 10% (6%) 12% (7%) 2% (1%) 7% (4%) 96% (84%)

Major Hurricane 20% (12%) 20% (12%) 8% (4%) 4% (3%) 34% (21%) 2% (1%) 7% (4%) 13% (8%) 1% (1%) <1% (<1%) <1% (<1%) <1% (<1%) 6% (3%) 3% (2%) 4% (3%) 3% (2%) <1% (<1%) <1% (<1%) 72% (52%)

Please also visit the Landfalling Probability Webpage at http://www.etransit.org/hurricane for landfall probabilities for 11 U.S. coastal regions and 205 coastal and near-coastal counties from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine. In addition, we now include probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 and 100 miles of various islands and landmasses in the Caribbean and Central America. We suggest that all coastal residents visit the Landfall Probability Webpage for their individual probabilities. We also urge coastal residents to fully prepare for all hurricane seasons, regardless of what our seasonal forecast may be.

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