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Northwest Regional Economic Strategy

RES Assessment Report 2009 July 2009


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Northwest Regional Economic Strategy

Contents SUMMARY 3 Executive Summary 4 Headline Outcomes 7 Analysis

THEMED CHAPTERS 9

Business

15

Skills and Education

19

People and Jobs

23

Infrastructure

27

Quality of Life

APPENDICES 29 Appendix 1: Further information on 8 Headline Targets 31 Appendix 2: Assessment of Transformational Actions

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Executive Summary Each year, the Annual Assessment Report of the Regional Economic Strategy 2006 provides the opportunity to performance manage the Strategy as a whole, and to assess progress and barriers to achievement in each Action. This report gives a summary of the progress reported by the lead organisation, together with an assessment of monitoring indicators for each RES factor, and a short commentary on the implications for future focus, and the opportunities or constraints affecting this factor. Regional Economic Strategy 2006 actions are the responsibility of a wide range of partners in the region, working together to achieve substantial change. The Annual Assessment Report is developed and endorsed by the Regional Strategy Advisory Group. It is supported by a more detailed report on monitoring indicators and progress for each action, and by a six-monthly report on the 45 Transformational Actions each autumn. An analysis of achievement of Transformational Actions is given directly after this Executive Summary. The current economic recession substantially affects the Northwest economy and our achievement of the impacts intended from actions in RES2006. The primary areas of impact are listed over leaf, and remedial action is being undertaken by many of the lead organisations responsible for actions affected. Despite the immediate context, however, at this stage in the implementation of RES2006, we are clearly able to distinguish actions which in some cases have been fully completed or are nearly achieved, from those which are not yet on course to deliver on the outcomes desired, and are therefore very likely to fall further adrift through the impact of the recession. Overall, there are many areas where progress since the last RES assessment report in 2008 has been steady, and our conclusion is that the RES2006 remains to a large extent valid and fit for purpose. We will be continuing to work as a set of regional partners towards the actions set out in the RES2006, and performance managing on this basis, until the emerging single Regional Strategy 2010 (RS2010) is in place.

The report uses a colour coding system to provide a summary of progress in the year to enable the reader to get a quick overview of progress: Green - good progress or action substantially completed Amber - some areas of good progress but not yet confident of achieving action Red - significant challenges or constraints on achieving this action still remain

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Northwest Regional Economic Strategy

Headline Outcomes At this point, achievement of headline indicators is mixed. Of the eight headline measures, six are moving in the right direction but not at a rapid enough rate to achieve our objectives [shown in AMBER]. One – the employment rate and the number of districts suffering poor levels of employment – has worsened over the RES2006 period [shown in RED]. Skills indicators that represent the proportion of the population with no qualifications are proving to be on track to achieve our goals [shown in GREEN]. • We have not achieved our target of Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rates above the England average, which is necessary to close the GVA gap over the long term. In the last year of data, the UK grew at 6.1% while the Northwest grew at 5.9%. Although there is still work to do in certain areas, it is encouraging that we have narrowed the GVA growth rate gap from 0.4% in 2004 to 0.1% in 2007. Target 2006-2009

Measure

2006 Baseline (data 2004)

GVA Growth (latest data 2007): Achieve GVA GVA £103.6 billion growth above GVA growth 4.9% England average (to close GVA gap £18.6 billion GVA/head gap with England in the longer term)

2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

£107.4 billion 3.6%

£113.0 billion 5.2%

£19.7 billion

£20.7 billion

£119.7 billion 5.9% UK: 6.1% £19.9 billion

• We have not increased the number of jobs in the Northwest, but we have created more jobs in knowledge occupations than our target of 80,000 which matched the same rate of growth as England. We still fall short of the England figure for the percentage of the population in knowledge occupations. Target 2006-2009

Measure

2006 Baseline (data 2004)

Job Creation (latest data 2007/8): Create 150,000 No. jobs 3.04 million new jobs, 80,000 in “knowledge No.“knowledge” 1.19 million occupations” to jobs have same % in % “knowledge” 38.8% these occupations jobs as England

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2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

2.99 million

3.01 million

3.04 million

1.23 million

1.25 million

1.27 million

39.3%

39.8%

40.2% UK 43.6%


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• Our firm formation rate has risen from 33 to 37 per 10,000 people, but it is not yet at the same rate as the England figure, and the shortfall in the number of firms identified in RES2006 remains at the same level.

Target 2006-2009

Measure

2006 Baseline (data 2004)

Firm Formation (latest data 2007): Raise the firm Firm Formation 18,085 formation rate to (no.): 21,000 per annum Firm Formation 33 (to have same rate rate per 10,000 and business stock people as England in the No. fewer 38,800 longer term) businesses than the England average

2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

18,055

18,165

20,640

33

33

37 UK 43

38,300

38,000

38,000

• We have reduced the number of people in the working age population with no qualifications by nearly 100,000 (target 80,000). We are on track to achieve the England rate for the percentage of this group in the workforce over the longer term. We have achieved our targets in this area. Target 2006-2009 No Qualifications Reduce the working age population with no qualifications by 80,000 and no district with more than 29%. (In the longer term to have the same % as England)

Measure

2006 Baseline (data 2004)

(latest data 2007): Working age 724,600 popn with no quals % of working 17.7% age popn. with no quals Districts with 2 rate more than 29%

2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

697,000

663,900

629,700

17.0%

15.8%

15.0% UK 12.9%

0

0

0

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• We have increased the number of people in the workforce with graduate qualifications by nearly 120,000, to achieve our target. However we have not yet achieved the England percentage figure. Target 2006-2009

Measure

2006 Baseline (data 2004)

Graduate Qualifications (latest data 2007): Increase the Workforce with 840,800 workforce with graduate quals graduate % of graduate 26.9% qualifications by quals 120,000 to meet the England Average

2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

910,500

924,900

955,400

28.4%

28.7%

29.5% UK 32.1%

• A poor set of data outcomes for Employment. Our employment rate has fallen and the number of districts with a rate of below 68% has doubled from four to eight, the figures reflect the effects of the recession.

Target 2006-2009

Measure

Employment Rate Increase the workforce by 83,000 (to meet the England employment rate) and no district to have an employment rate less than 68%. (In the longer term to achieve an 80% employment rate)

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2006 Baseline (data 2004)

(latest data 2007): Workforce 2.97 million Employment 72.7% rate Districts with 4 rate less than 68%

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2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

3.04 million 72.5%

3.04 million 72.3%

4

7

3.05 million 72.3% UK 74.5% 8


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Analysis Progress in the lifetime of the RES and specifically in the last year of assessment includes the following, with some implications for activity in 2009-10: • Substantial activity on the ground underway, and many RES Transformational Actions achieved. • Early signs that there are positive outcomes in terms of net new business starts and business survival. Our shortfall of firms (business density) remains constant, however. • Linking our Higher Education Institutions (HEI) base of knowledge and research to our large, medium-sized and small companies, engaging in knowledge transfer and business focused solutions. We need to ensure that the Northwest ERDF programme can support this work, and we need to continue work with Government and the private sector to secure Daresbury as a national science and technology centre. • Strong progress reported on targets around sustainable consumption and production, including businesses assisted with resource efficiency, reductions in CO2 generated, water savings, and waste diverted from landfill. The Northwest needs to be working actively on this to position Northwest companies for competitive advantage. • Significantly improved workforce skills, including the educational attainment of young people, and the volume of participation in key programmes such as Train to Gain, indicate the emergence of a labour force appropriate for current and future employment opportunities. Demonstrable progress has been made therefore at a regional level on the identified 2006 issue of a poorly skilled workforce, although there is still much left to do. The complex issues of the availability of skills appropriate for specific sectors, where industries are in transition, and in particularly hard-to-reach places, will need particular focus going forward. Major challenges caused by the recession which will require focused activity in the coming year are: • Responding to the tougher investment conditions that the region will face. We will need to focus on creating the right conditions to maintain private sector investment into housing, employment sites and buildings, including those required by the Science and Innovation programme priorities. We will also need to support firms to maintain R&D spend and their investment into business productivity such as workforce training and resource efficiency. • Continuing to position the Northwest in our national and global marketplace as a strong location for inward investment, alongside assisting our firms to become better at making products and services that deliver to an export market. Notwithstanding the global recession, export-led growth and foreign direct investment is a vital route out of the downturn for the Northwest, and we should consider a stretch target within this factor this year.

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• Specific transformational projects, such as MediaCityUK in Salford need to remain a priority, and in this - as in several other sectors - delivering international scale and critical mass will be vital. Discovering ways of achieving complementary growth for our leading internationally-known city regions must be a priority. • The Northwest joint response to the labour market downturn provides a robust partnership and activity to maintain an urgent response to redundancies. This activity has made 12,000 extra Further Education (FE) places available this year to ensure skills development for the recovery. There is no sense of complacency and stakeholders are aware that a significant level of business closure and redundancy is likely to be experienced in the Northwest this year. This level of focus needs to be maintained throughout 2009-10. At a strategic level, the Joint Economic Commission has been established with the objective of ensuring the Northwest emerges from the current downturn stronger than before. The following points note RES factors/actions which were perhaps areas of concern even before the recession began to affect achievement. Many of these address challenges that are immensely intractable and long-term in nature, and it should also remembered that lags in the release of data, particularly Gross Value Added (GVA) mean that we may not be reflecting activity of the past two to three years. • RES priority sectors are employing more, but not so far adding proportionately more to GVA. A strong message however being that any assessment of sectoral or sub-regional GVA relies on 2006-07 data, reflecting therefore the start of RES2006 actions. All activity to support and drive a business sector or cluster should be considered over the medium term, dependent as it often is on changing both physical infrastructure and culture or attitudes; this year delivering on the much greater understanding of sectors and clusters that has been built up will need to be a priority, but difficult to achieve given the necessary re-prioritisation of funding towards companies in crisis. • Worklessness and deprivation indicators remain stubbornly in the red, with a particularly poor result for the Northwest showing a doubling of the number of districts with an employment rate of less than 68%, from four to eight (at the end of 2008), and no change in benefit dependency rates over the last year. Growth has not been uniform around the Northwest, and the places experiencing the worst outcomes amongst their residents are substantially in the same position, except for the two city centres of Liverpool and Manchester which have dramatically moved forward in regeneration and investment. The Northwest needs a detailed conversation about how these outcomes can be remedied.

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• We will need to transform the way in which our firms gain productivity and competitive advantage in digital skills and business utilisation. Some of this is around physical infrastructure and Next Generation Access, but also around higher levels of business assistance, innovation and leadership. • Energy, water, and waste constraints to growth in parts of the region and sustainable transport to avoid further congestion were issues raised by many people this year in discussion on progress in implementing RES2006. • Health indicators are improving around risk factors such as smoking and obesity, but not alcohol and there has been an increasing negative impact of ill-health on economic participation in the last year. The health industry could be a strong economic driver and opportunity to address worklessness and deprivation. In conclusion, whether we can continue to secure private sector investment will be the major challenge in the current economic climate. The majority of projects continue, but re-doubled focus and achievement as the recession continues to have a deep impact is going to be vital if the prioritised activity is going to deliver a truly valuable, knowledge-based Northwest economy.

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Business ENTERPRISE (RES ACTIONS 1-7) Progress Good progress continues at Business Link Northwest which met all of the five key performance indicators in addition to responding to additional and more varied enquiries/products due to the current recession, and continuing to promote the principles of the Business Support Simplification Programme (BSSP). The Start Up programme targeted at underperforming groups/areas has met its two-year target of assisting 4,200 start-ups. Work on Enterprise as a career choice stepped up this year with the Higher Education Enterprise Champions project delivering over 800 training places and 700 events taking place around the region in Enterprise Week; however the Further Education Hub is expected to be delayed to Q1 2009/10. Strong work has taken place under the action around access to finance, in particular the establishment of a Venture Capital Loan Fund utilising ERDF funding; active promotion of the Small Business Loan scheme; an improved Access to Finance team working within Business Link Northwest; and two working capital/transitional loan schemes specifically responding to the recession and sharp reduction in the availability of finance from banks. Data The Northwest has fallen significantly short of our 2009 target for business density, and displays virtually the same shortfall of businesses against the England picture as identified when RES2006 analysis was performed. Over this period, the rate of business starts has begun to rise, however, and the Northwest presents a strong picture on the first few years of business survival compared to other regions (survival rates at 12, 24, and 36 months). The conclusion must be that the Northwest is still suffering significant loss of older businesses as a result of continuing structural industrial change. The good news is that the overall figure for net new businesses per annum (i.e. new starts minus closing businesses) rose in the last year of data, having declined the year before. Approximately four times more graduates are starting businesses on leaving their Higher Education Institution (HEI) in latest data than was the case in the 2006 baseline analysis. Implications Increasing business density is a long-term aim. The business numbers outcome for the Northwest has not changed in recent years. Present economic climate necessarily decreases the ‘optimism index’, however, rates of ‘necessity’ business starts will usually climb in a recession and this seems to be experienced at currently. The fact the business starts rate is gradually climbing is good news, but for the Northwest to start to close the gap in the VAT-registered business stock this will need to increase more dramatically. We are now coming out of a significant set of national and regional re-organisations and have the opportunity to concentrate on delivery and maximise the new arrangements and funding streams that are in place. It is encouraging that HEI graduates are becoming more entrepreneurial, and remaining in the Northwest to start their business – a small but significant step towards developing a knowledge economy. We welcome the good progress that has been made over the past year in improving access to finance advice and availability of loan and venture capital funding schemes.

The report uses a colour coding system to provide a summary of progress in the year to enable the reader to get a quick overview of progress: Green - good progress or action substantially completed Amber - some areas of good progress but not yet confident of achieving action Red - significant challenges or constraints on achieving this action still remain

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REGIONAL SECTORS (RES ACTIONS 8-11) Progress 2008-09 saw good progress on MediaCityUK, with a highlight being the contracting of a highspeed broadband infrastructure to be launched in Q1 09-10. We have seen restructured business support for the Digital & Creative sector (vital for Northwest ambition to identify our region as a globally competitive cluster), and the establishment of a single Regional Cluster Organisation for digital and creative industries. Across the range of other sectors 08-09 saw: the development of an action plan for Financial and Professional Services; Chemicals and Advanced Engineering and Materials plans in place; similarly plans in place for Sport, Food and Drink, Environmental Technologies, and BioTech; work has progressed in mapping Photonics strengths and opportunities in the Northwest; and a successful trade mission with China. In tourism, Signature Projects some progress has been made in masterplanning for Chester Zoo and on Lake District Renaissance, and in supporting the strategic added value of the five Sub-Regional Tourist Boards. Data Steady small increase in proportion of employment in knowledge occupations, with Northwest closing the gap with the UK, although the actual numbers employed in these knowledge occupations are virtually static. In Gross Value Added (GVA) terms, the last year of data seems to indicate a fall in the total GVA value accounted for by priority sectors, although this is still above the 2006 baseline. Implications Due to the fact that latest data relates to 2006, it is impossible to point to significant change in outcomes in priority Regional Sectors over the three-year RES period. All work to support and drive a business sector or cluster should be considered over the medium term rather than demanding instant results, dependent as it often is on changing both physical infrastructure and culture or attitudes. Because of this significant lag in industry sector and sub-regional GVA figures recent work will not be reflected. We report on a considerable amount of progress in our understanding and the future priority will be delivery of identified actions. Particularly, delivering on the Digital & Creative sector will remain a key focus for 2009-10 as the requirement for business takeup of the MediaCityUK offer steps up. To be globally competitive in this arena we need scale and critical mass as a region, and our internationallyknown cities must find the ability to work together to deliver complementary growth. The recession will continue to mean a funding re-prioritisation from planned sector and cluster development projects to the ‘companies in crisis’ programme, during 09-10.

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INNOVATION (RES ACTIONS 12-14) Progress Business Link Northwest has moved ahead this year with the introduction of an innovation advice service, and there has been an excellent response from the private sector to the launch of Innovation Vouchers. The Higher Level Skills Partnership, which brings together business need and Higher Education providers, is reporting good results, with 28 projects (34 courses) funded to date. Data Good results this year on the number of innovation active companies, now at 67% up from 58% in 2006. In part, this may be due to the rise in levels of interaction between Northwest HEIs and firms, with increasing full-time equivalent staff numbers dedicated to such knowledge transfer. Implications A major imperative for the Northwest is to link our HEI base of knowledge and research to our large, medium-sized and small companies, improving rates of innovation and engaging in knowledge transfer and business focused solutions. Work in the skills area to focus on leadership and management and innovation throughout the workforce will need to be implemented as a fundamental driver of productivity.

SCIENCE/R&D (RES ACTIONS 15 -16) Progress Overall, good progress has been made in implementing the specifics of the Northwest Science Strategy. The NDA has begun the process of building a grow-on space building for Daresbury, with a projected opening at end 2010. Liverpool Science Park current phase has been achieved on schedule and to budget. There has been some progress on other key projects, including Lancaster Science Park, Oxford Road Innovation Programme, Manchester Knowledge Capital, and Westlakes Science Park. Data Encouraging picture here, although difficult to draw firm conclusions as the latest date for data relating to Government R&D spend is 2005, and an important target measure for this Factor – percentage of government non-HEI R&D – has not been updated this year. Business R&D spend has increased over the previous year of data after a worrying fall last year, and is now back above 2006 baseline. The Northwest attracts a respectable if not outstanding 13.3% of total business R&D spend, a little more than in the 2006 analysis. Implications Whether we can continue to secure private sector funding for capital build projects will be the major challenge in the current economic climate. While varying rates of progress on all projects have been made in the past year, re-doubled focus and achievement as the recession bites is going to be vital if the prioritised activity is going to deliver a truly valuable, knowledge-based Northwest economy. We need to continue work with Government to secure Daresbury as a national science and technology centre. As last year, we report a need to look carefully at the numbers of students of STEM subjects in the region.

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INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS (RES ACTIONS 17-19) Progress Recent data relates to the 07/08 business year, a highly successful record year of performance for foreign direct investment, confirming our performance as the best location in the UK for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) outside of London and the South East. Recent programmes have delivered target achievements, including trade business programmes by UKTI; by the North of England team in North America; and by the NWDA, working via UKTI, in China and India. We particularly welcome the fact that the good performance on FDI has been assisted by strong participation from sub-regional partnerships. In providing business support to exporters, UKTI and the region’s sector teams have successfully delivered the 2008/09 trade plan, assisting 600 companies to enter new markets. Data FDI targets have been met, with over 150 investment projects in the last year of data and 14,000 jobs created/safeguarded. An above target percentage of these FDI projects were R&D intensive, and the same percentage (13%) as last year was sourced from emerging markets. Implications This area of activity carries a medium/high risk over the next year, with deep recession at home and in key markets, and the OECD predicting severe falls in FDI work throughout 2009. Making products and services that sell effectively to the outside world, and being a region that attracts investment and relocations, is a vital part of our ability to obtain value from increasing globalisation, improve the structure of our economy, and retain jobs, security and quality of life in our region. Export-led growth, maintaining the competitiveness of the Northwest, and continuing to attract investment, must remain strategic priorities. Despite the risk factors, delivery has been good and we could potentially consider a stretch target for FDI within this RES factor this year.

ICT (RES ACTIONS 20-22) Progress It is difficult to report progress in this RES factor in the Northwest, although an ÂŁ8 million transformational ICT programme for companies is in concept stage at Lancaster University, potentially to be rolled out at the end of 2009. BT is committed to increasing activity in the Northwest, specifically to supplying a super-fast broadband service to 140,000 businesses and homes in and around Greater Manchester. Data No data updates are available this year. Implications A fast-moving area of national policy, where determining our ability to supply Next Generation Access, and our position in the context of the Digital Britain report, has become paramount. ICT support is now part of the Business Link Northwest offering and delivered in the mainstream, but we are not yet providing a transformational programme of support to targeted companies, and we will need to focus on achieving this. We suffer from the absence of data indicators relating to ICT usage, preventing us from monitoring progress and our relative position in this important contribution to productivity.

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SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION (RES ACTIONS 23-25) Progress Strong progress reported on key targets in the BREW programme, including businesses assisted with resource efficiency, reduced CO2 generated, water savings, and waste diverted from landfill. All activities within the Climate Change Action Plan have been delivered or are in delivery, including support for Energy Savings Trust Advice Centres, Low Carbon Demonstration Fund, and Low Carbon Market Development programme. New projects initiated include a Climate Change Fund and a study on Power from the Mersey, and on the Sustainable Consumption & Production (SCP) Programe a Northwest EcoInnovation programme and Northwest Construction Hub. Data Relatively good progress on use of energy and CO2 emissions, with our total energy consumption level down and a year-on-year improvement of CO2 emissions from industry, commercial and public sector. Data indicators relating to waste have not yet been updated this year. Implications ENWORKS are monitoring engagement of businesses with the SCP Programme and to date there has been no significant downward trend due to the recession; to maintain this good result it will be important to continue to strengthen the case for SCP cost savings and added value. The Northwest will need to embed and extend this activity to achieve stretch targets and position Northwest companies for competitive advantage. During 2009-10 a new SCP Action Plan and a refresh of the Climate Change Action Plan will be developed. A thorough analysis this year of the best way of delivering increased corporate social responsibility (CSR) has set out the future direction to be build the subject into leadership and management programmes, and generate more evidence linking CSR to business competitiveness.

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Skills and Education BASIC SKILLS (RES ACTION 26) Progress The Northwest Skills for Life Strategy and Implementation Plan is now operational, and the Northwest has delivered the highest volume of provision nationally, achieving 135,000 literacy achievements, and 62,000 numeracy ‘aims’. Data There has been a continuing decrease in number of people with ‘no qualifications’, showing an improvement of 35,000 people coming out of this category since the baseline analysis of 2006. However, the stretch target which was set then has not been reached. The number of adults in the working age population without an NVQ Level 2 (ie. 5 pass GCSEs) has risen slightly, although the same measure for 16-19 year olds has fallen to just over 40%. The England figure for this group, for comparison, is 35%. Implications To achieve Leitch targets – which set out what is likely to be the skills profile a region should achieve if it is going to be successful – it will be vital to deliver significant improvements in basic skills / skills for life through adult provision, such as the Union Learn programme in the workplace, and not just from activity with young people. The Northwest must continue to focus on generating a universal culture of workforce development; it is reportedly still disappointingly difficult to increase employer participation in basic skills provision. As signalled last year, the region needs to consider what actions and investments will improve the skills profile at Level 2 standard. The recession worsens the employment outlook for those without basic skills since there are likely to be greater volumes of people temporarily out of work and competing with this group for entry-level jobs.

SECTOR SKILLS AND WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT (RES ACTIONS 27-34) Progress The mainstream skills programme in the region is Train to Gain, which is performing well with over 12,000 employers involved, 62,000 employee starts and 25,000 achievements this academic year (August 2008 to February 2009). It has been adjusted in particular to assist SMEs employers to continue training through the economic recession (10,000). Using this programme to address skills disparities reports reasonable coverage, with Train to Gain starts this year 53% female, 5% consider themselves to have a disability, 17% over 50, and 11% from Black and Minority Ethnics. An additional initiative is the skills pledge – where employers guarantee to train existing workforce to at least Level 2 – which now has 2160 employers signed up, covering 1/2m employees. The Higher Level Skills Partnership has resulted in 34 new employer-led courses to be developed within four sectors working with a number of Sector Skills Councils. New NWDA funding will enable the project to be enhanced and extended to seven sectors in total, namely the six RES priority sectors, plus construction. Specifically in rural areas, excellent analysis and priority-setting work is progressing throughout Lancashire; an analysis of needs is taking place in Cumbria; and Cheshire reports progress on a rural food hub and rural enterprise hub. Data Strong performance throughout this comprehensive set of data indicators relating to sector skills and workforce development. Rates of studying and achieving qualifications at Level 2, 3, and 4 are increased, with both rural and urban populations demonstrating improvements. Work-based learning apprenticeships have demonstrated above-target achievement, although a slight fall from exceptional success rates recorded last year. Importantly, a smaller percentage of employers are now reporting skills gaps or skills-shortage related / hard-to-fill vacancies. The percentage of employers investing in training has risen to 68% from 64% in the RES baseline year, which does compare well to other English regions who range from 65%-70%. RES Assessment Report 2009

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Implications Data results and the volume of participation in key programmes both indicate the early emergence of a labour force appropriate for current and future employment opportunities. Demonstrable progress has been made therefore at a regional level on the identified 2006 issue of a poorly skilled workforce. The more complex issues of the availability of skills appropriate for specific sectors, where industries are in transition, and in particularly hard-to-reach places, has not been reported on by leads and therefore needs particular focus going forward, because these are the specific constraints on growth reported by businesses. The key question for the region to address is how to achieve stronger progression through skills levels, particularly progression of those already in the workforce at Level 3 to advance to Level 4.

LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT (RES ACTIONS 35-36) Progress Within Train to Gain, the Leadership and Management programme has been expanded, the reaction from business is very positive and end-of-year targets will be achieved. Three other Leadership and Management projects – Disney Institute master classes to 200 Northwest businesses; leadership workshops to 45 East Lancs businesses; ACAS additional advisory surgeries; – have completed successfully. This set of RES actions is also about developing enterprise skills in schools, Further Education (FE), and Higher Education (HE). At HE level this is being delivered by the National Council for Graduate Entrepreneurship, delivering skills to 2,700 individuals and reporting over 200 businesses created. The FE Enterprise Hubs have not yet launched but are still in progress. Data Good progress in an assessment of the proportion of organisations with skills gaps where managers’ managerial skills need improving, with a drop from nearly 80% to below 70%. (It will be important to note this is not ‘all organisations’ but those firms reporting skills gaps.) The other significant data indicator updated this year is an analysis of the percentage of the workforce employed as managers/senior officials, which has remained the same at 14% (no change on 2006 baseline). The percentage figure for England has risen, widening the gap between the Northwest and national employment structure. Implications The conclusions of skills monitoring is that the overall skills profile of the workforce is improving. However, if our occupational structure in terms of senior managerial and professional jobs is static, our ambition for more of a knowledge economy is not yet being fulfilled. During 2009, it will be important to deliver on a bigger scale with two particular programmes: LEAD where the target is 2000 SMEs across the Northwest; and mentoring offered through BusinessLink where the target is 3500 SMEs. HE enterprise work is now up and running and will need to deliver, and similarly in FE enterprise support. Formerly, a key project being reported on has been the Northern Leadership Academy portal, but the potential impact of this has not yet been realised, and it’s future is being assessed.

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EDUCATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE (RES ACTIONS 37-40) Progress The action to deliver HE provision in Cumbria and East Lancs is progressing well. In East Lancashire, the Burnley FE/HE campus will complete in July 2009. Funding has been approved for Blackburn HE centre. The University of Cumbria is operational, has appointed a ViceChancellor and obtained early approval for its development of a business plan. Provision for 1419 year olds has developed with Diplomas as an alternative to A-levels now offered in some subjects in all Local Authorities. A “kite-mark” scheme run by the Learning and Skills Council to recognise learning providers responsive to employers’ needs is now achieved by 14 providers. In the light of the issues around Learning and Skills Council capital spending, we have seen a number of FE colleges experience uncertainty in capital development programmes and this has affected both delivery of new campuses and their provision of courses. Data Excellent progress demonstrable over the lifetime of the RES, with a further rise this year in the percentage of pupils achieving five or more good grades at GCSE or equivalent, now at nearly 65%. There is a continuing decline in the number of school leavers at 16 who lack a Level 2 qualification, and a decline in the percentage of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) to 8.3% (the England figure is 7%). The number of HE students studying in the Northwest has also risen, to over 189,000; however the percentage of these students studying science, engineering and technology is down to 39%, while it was nearly 42% in the 2006 base year – although as a caveat, this particular indicator does vary from year to year and may not be fully accurate. Implications Year-on-year improvements in the key educational markers for young people (GCSE attainment, unqualified 16 year olds, and NEET) signal major structural change in the ability of those emerging into the workforce to obtain work and achieve their potential. While regional efforts to strengthen the FE and HE offer has been successful, the reinforcement of a strong teaching staff and improved campus facilities in the University of Cumbria will need continued sustained focus. It will be important to react strongly to the continuing Learning and Skills Council capital spending crisis and to influence the national spending allocation. The imperative now is to focus on making sure the courses offered both meet and stimulate employer demand, to continue to increase the numbers progressing through qualification levels, and to move to maintain numbers studying STEM subjects as a vital workforce for Northwest firms in the future.

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People and Jobs JOB LINKAGES (RES ACTION 41-46) Progress This factor is clearly affected by the economic downturn and now recession. The Northwest has reacted delivering a coordinated response from the key agencies, facing both individuals and employers. 21,000 additional Further Education (FE) places have been made available, and extra resources for skills interventions for individuals at risk of redundancy and newly redundant, as well as those unemployed and further from the labour market. Local Employment Partnerships have been extended to all benefit recipients by Jobcentre Plus, and delivered across the Northwest as a key tool to support employment during the recession. This programme has engaged 155 employers offering 2,967 vacancies, delivering 1,355 learners and 541 job outcomes. Jobcentre Plus’s Flexible New Deal has been launched in Manchester, and Jobcentre Plus is currently tendering for additional provision for six month+ customers, and has accessed additional European Social Fund financing. Data Data demonstrates the intractability of the outcomes experienced in the Northwest in regards to unemployment and benefit dependency, both in absolute terms and relative to the picture nationally. Data relates to mid-2008 in the main, so only the very early part of the impact of the economic recession will be in these figures. A particularly poor result for the Northwest shows a doubling of the number of districts with an employment rate of less than 68%, from four to eight. The regional employment rate is 72.3%, the same as reported last year and a stubborn two percentage points below the England headline rate. Within often-marginalised demographic groups, the employment rate for the non-white population has declined; the rates for both those over-50 and for disabled people have increased; and that for lone parents shows good improvement, now virtually equal to the England rate. Benefit dependency shows no particular improvement either in the last year or over the three years since the 2006 RES baseline. The percentage rate for those on Incapacity Benefit has declined but the actual number has gone up to 404,000 individuals. Income support claimant rate has fallen in the last year and overall has fallen to the same extent as the England rate did over this period. Implications The Northwest joint response to the labour market downturn provides a robust partnership framework, both at regional and sub-regional levels, to maintain an urgent response, and to plan and ensure skills development for the recovery. This level of focus and extensive activity needs to be maintained throughout 2009-10.

LOCAL EMPLOYMENT (RES ACTIONS 47-56) Progress In Manchester a major initiative was the Transport Investment Fund bid, rejected by referendum in December 2008. Extensive funding for transport improvements has since been agreed by the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities in May 2009. Greater Manchester has achieved statutory City Region status, with detailed negotiations continuing. In Barrow, Marina Village continues and is at an early stage with a preferred developer, after the economic downturn led others to withdraw. Ramsden Business Park is struggling and likely to be public sector secured at first to prove market demand; it’s land reclamation and infrastructure has been completed. Waterfront Business Park access road and key infrastructure has been completed. A new West Cumbria Vision Board has been established, which started May 2009. In Lancashire, recruitment is in place for the local action and rural programmes, and planning underway for maximising the functional role of Key Service Centres. Pennine Lancashire has moved forward considerably in governance terms, with the submission of a Multi-Area Agreement to Government and preparation of an integrated economic strategy. Work to deliver the Blackpool Masterplan, including site assembly and starts on construction projects, has been successful this year. RES Assessment Report 2009

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Looking at the responsibility to encourage employment creation in or near deprived areas, Lancashire Economic Partnership are reporting significant problems accessing ERDF money; however a set of projects supporting the hardest to reach workless cohort still continuing. Cumbria Vision reports the development of the Cumbria Economic Strategy and sub-regional Action Plan identifying potential for new jobs creation. The Business Start-Up project has achieved its two year output target of 4,200 new starts from underperforming groups / areas. Masterplanning for Crewe has been delayed due to Local Government reorganisation. The Cheshire Market Towns report has been completed along with review of supply and demand for rural workspace. Data A limited number of data indicators and some indicators not being updated this year means that it is difficult to report fully. The number of districts in DEFRA’s worst performing 20% remains at four, the same as the baseline in 2006. Median taxpayer income in rural districts has risen and still remains above overall Northwest levels. A good indicator of local economic activity that is available annually is the number of businesses per 10,000 population in rural areas, and this rose last year, continuing strong performance from 366 in 2006 to 415 in 2009. Implications In Barrow, important decisions need to be made rapidly on additional land purchase and marina infrastructure investment. In West Cumbria, the new Vision Board will need to make a rapid start on a delivery plan, and achievement of the Britain’s Energy Coast Masterplan. Welcome news is that a new contract to support enterprise in and near deprived areas is now available, valued at £7.5 million for this year alone and allowing local authorities to co-fund, which all sets a welcome platform for potentially strong delivery on the enterprise agenda in the next few years. planning, transport and infrastructure development.

HEALTH (RES ACTIONS 57-59) Progress Very mixed progress in this set of actions, with reasonable advances in Sport where active people indicators are now used in Local-Area Agreements. The Northwest now has 43 community sport networks sitting within local authorities, funded to a total of £10.3 million through the Community Investment Fund. There has been no progress / activity on Healthy Workplaces, largely due to absence of lead on this action. Data Some interesting data results in the Health set of indicators. Leading health indicators include life expectancy which has increased for both men and women in the last year, and in the period since 2006, closing the gap with the national rate. Rates of smoking and obesity have declined, but the prevalence of cardiovascular disease for both men and women over 35 has increased. We do not report on alcohol consumption in this set of indicators but reports from health stakeholders indicate that this has markedly worsened in the Northwest recently. Similarly, indicators around incidence of mental illness are said to be significantly poorer recently. Those indicators which focus on the impact of poor health on economic activity and wealth include Incapacity Benefit rates, where over 404,000 individuals are now claiming, more than the 400,000 reported in 2006; and days lost to sickness absence which is now nearly nine per employee per year, compared to just over six when first reported in 2006. The England figure is 6.9 days so the Northwest is significantly worse than the national average.

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Implications Health indicators are improving around risk factors such as smoking and obesity, but there is a worsening impact of ill-health on economic participation, wealth and opportunity, and we need to extend our set of indicators to cover alcohol and mental illness. The action to deliver healthy workplaces has not moved forward in the last year. The action is still relevant – see, for example data on days lost to sickness absence. There is support amongst partners in Public Health, Health and Safety, and the Trades Unions for the work. The difficulty is the absence of a lead organisation, the lack of an evidence base of best practice, and the potential for supporting activities which are less than effective. The other aspect of health is the importance of the sector for economic growth and productivity: the Northwest has business and university R&D, major firms, a skilled workforce, and other assets that make this a potential source of productivity and employment, and it will be important to maximise this and to link it to health outcomes within our own region.

POPULATION CHANGE (RES ACTIONS 60-62) Progress A Regional Framework on Ageing has been developed which highlights particularly important indicators and objectives for enabling older people both to participate and to receive adequate services. Data Data indicators around population change show poor or worsening outcomes for the Northwest. Inward migration has stalled, with no increase in the number of National Insurance registrations (51,000); a fall again of other international in-migration (5,000, down from 7,000 last year); and a net loss of individuals to other parts of England (-6,700). Over the three year RES period the retention of graduates from Northwest universities who originated in the Northwest has fallen from 73% to 52% (although this indicator is notoriously hard to collect and inaccurate), although the region is still retaining those originating elsewhere at a similar rate to before (23%). Over 27,000 international students were studying at the region’s HEIs, up from the baseline year. Implications The data results for the Northwest have worrying implications and demographic change is increasingly recognised as a critical issue for the Northwest social fabric and economy. Partners will need to deliver on Regional Framework for Ageing commitments and step up activity on the complementary priority which is to retain, and attract, younger working age population and families. The Northwest needs more people to drive our economy, and UK and international inward-migrants, including students, are very likely to be strong contributors, both in enterprise and in employment.

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Infrastructure TRANSPORT (RES ACTIONS 63-79) Progress Road capacity / demand management on Greater Manchester and Cheshire and Warrington motorways has progressed well, with all planned improvements taking place – A556 preferred route announced; M62/M57 interchange improvements open; seven ramp metering sites delivered; managed motorway options M6 and M60 announced (i.e. use of hard shoulder in peak periods); six Travel Plans delivered. In other areas, there have been major works to improve the A5117 Deeside and A5103 Princess Parkway; and the A590 High and Low Newton bypass is open, enhancing road access to Barrow. Rail reports are also positive with successes being the publication of Network Rail Strategic Business Plan and a Merseyside Route Utilisation Strategy; the effective introduction of a new much improved West Coast Mainline timetable following completion of upgrade works on that line; Manchester Airport Railway Station third platform opened, improving both airport services and the operation of the Manchester Rail Hub; and Olive Mount Chord service opened, which improves both freight and passenger services in Liverpool. The Manchester Rail Hub has produced a study indicating that economic benefits worth £13 billion £16 billion could be unlocked by work to improve rail services dependent on this infrastructure. The second phase of the work is now underway and being led by Network Rail. Efforts to tackle congestion by increased public transport and reducing peak traffic has had a mixed picture – the rejection of the Greater Manchester Congestion Charge scheme being a blow to a number of Transport Investment Fund (TIF)-dependent projects. However, the renewal and extension of GM Metrolink was not TIF-dependent and is now under construction. Reports from Lancashire are positive, with the East Lancashire Rapid Transport scheme now submitted programme entry to DfT. This year the Clitheroe-Manchester and Todmorden Curve rail schemes also moved forward and are now within Network Rail’s assessment structures. Blackpool airport has upgraded its runway and taxiway surfaces. Data Road delay (measured on the stretch in the Northwest most likely to experience it) has significantly improved and the percentage of all journeys which are non-car trips has increased from 25% to 28%. Number of rail journeys shows an increase in passenger numbers, while bus and Metrolink journey numbers are static. Airport passenger usage has levelled off (a small decrease at Manchester Airport), and port tonnage also shows a static or slight declining figure. An interesting indicator around access of people to jobs shows an increasing percentage of people in receipt of Jobseeker’s Allowance in Greater Manchester who are within 30 minutes access to the city centre by public transport by 8am. Implications The region worked together to update Regional Funding Advice, submitted to Secretary of State in February 2009. However the Department for Transport (DfT) approvals process is still immensely time-consuming. We will need to work with the new Delivering a Sustainable Transport System (DaSTS) framework to understand and prioritise transport schemes in an integrated way, recognising that a relatively small scheme can be the lynchpin for the wider economic and social renewal of the area. Network Rail, with DfT and regional train operators, is continuing to work up plans for the operation of longer trains in the Northwest, relieving capacity issues.

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LAND USE (RES ACTIONS 80-84) Progress Regionally, a consultation on the review of strategic sites has been undertaken. On individual projects, the Kingsway infrastructure works have completed and Ditton (3MG) site remediation works are at point of completion. The outline planning application for Lancaster University / Bailrigg development site (which incorporates a highways solution) has been further delayed. An important contaminated brownfield site, Luneside East in Lancaster, has stalled with the developer in breach of its agreement. Sub-regionally, the action to develop a portfolio of employment sites has been taken forward by the call for an expression of interest in sites in Lancashire; two sites in Cumbria (in Carlisle) taken forward for implementation through the sub-regional study; and in Cheshire and Warrington, despite Local Government reorganisation, the draft final report on sub-regional sites is completed. Business accommodation taken forward sub-regionally has generated new enterprise workspace in Pennine Lancashire under the LEGI programme and similar is planned for Blackpool; reports from Cumbria of 10,000 m sq office space developed in Carlisle, Cockermouth and Penrith; and the launch of the Energy Innovation Centre in Cheshire. Data While for the second year in a row, we have seen a slight fall in the m sq of floorspace developed for industrial/commercial use, we have also seen a welcome decrease again in the proportion of land and buildings that is vacant/derelict. The Northwest still has over one-fifth of all England’s brownfield land, but is a strong performer in building new dwellings on previously developed land, with a 3% annual rise to 86%. Implications It is apparent that the current recession is bringing to an almost complete halt any private sector / developer investment into housing or employment sites. It will be important to do what is possible with sources of public finance to assist investor confidence and return.

HOUSING (RES ACTIONS 85-87) Progress The Regional Housing Strategy launched in March 2009. Supporting this, the Strategic Housing Market Assessments were completed in August 2008. Housing Market Renewal programmes have worked on integration into emerging Multi-Area Agreements, and received allocations from Homes & Communities Agency. The Manchester/Salford, Oldham/Rochdale and Merseyside programmes are increasingly linked to the growth points agenda, with relatively strong economic prospects in the medium and long term. Initial growth point funding has been announced and focuses mostly on infrastructure works in support of housing sites. Data A limited set of data updates this year, and this plus the current economic / housing recession combine to make it a difficult point at which to assess our progress in this factor. Over the three years since the 2006 baseline, the dwelling stock in the Northwest has risen satisfactorily, but there is expected to be a fall in starts and completions in face of current economic climate. Similarly the percentage of the dwelling stock deemed unfit has fallen, although remains one full percentage point above the national figure. Vacancies have significantly fallen down to just over 1%. However, house price:earnings ratios (latest data being 2008) seem to have risen, which implies some affordability issues, and other indicators such as the volume of local authority dwellings in low demand, are not updated at present. Affordable dwellings constructed in 2007/08 increased significantly (by 34%) compared to the previous year. In the overall context of recession, the annual rate of change in prices was positive to June 2008 but has subsequently fallen to -17% for the year up to February 2009. Implications Partners are now developing an action plan for implementation of the Regional Housing Strategy, and the continuing work on the evidence base will form part of the preparation of Single Regional Strategy 2010 (RS2010). It is increasingly difficult for Housing Market Renewal to deliver in current recession and partners are finding that house prices have fallen farther and faster in pathfinder areas than other areas. page 24

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PLANNING (RES ACTIONS 88-90) Progress The region saw publication of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) by the Secretary of State in September 2008; 4NW is now moving ahead with the preparation of an implementation framework and a Partial Review of the RSS which covers Gypsies and Travellers, travelling showpeople, and car parking standards. Work is underway in the Lake District National Park to develop principles for farming and land use; a transport framework; and assessment of employment land and workspace provision. Data It is hard to assess progress against planning indicators: 87% of planning applications are granted, exactly the same as in the 2006 baseline, with the percentage of those granted within eight weeks again exactly as was reported in 2006. No further data updates are available. Implications Again, it is difficult to assess whether the planning system is increasingly enabling sustainable growth in the Northwest, and as part of development of RS2010 partners will need to find a way of setting objectives and measuring progress in this. Further work and stronger actions are vital to link planning, land use, housing, utilities and transport schemes together, strengthening our strategic and tactical coordination and effectiveness of working which will contribute to the competitive position of the Northwest.

ENERGY (RES ACTION 91) Progress Good progress as the Energy Innovation Centre is now open and the Northwest Biomass programme is implemented; the Northwest is involved in the national Nuclear Site Assessment process underway at present; and strong working relationships have been established with Electricity North West, National Grid, and Ofgem, including input into Electricity North West’s five-year business plan. Data The percentage of regional energy demand produced from renewables has risen, and now stands at nearly 13% of the English total. Our regional total energy consumption has fallen. The latest data is 2006 which limits the implications we can draw from the last two to three years of activity. Implications Our key priorities going forward are ensuring the increase in and security of energy supplies; supporting the economic development of the energy sector; and reducing CO2 emissions. It will be important to develop a full understanding of regional and local electricity supply constraints working with regional distribution network operators; to continue to positively influence investment plans in this area; and to participate in the national Nuclear Site Assessment process. The region is now in a position of having a good set of competitive advantages and facilities in the Northwest, including Capenhurst Energy Innovation Centre, and we will need to see these maximised over the next period.

INVESTMENT (RES ACTIONS 92-94) Progress The Joint Economic Commission for the Northwest has identified key investment priorities for the Northwest to protect and stimulate our economy during the recession and prepare for the upturn. Also during 2008-09 the Northern Way Private Investment Commission has been analysing how to stimulate private sector investment throughout the North of England. Data Appropriate baselines for this RES factor are not established. Implications It is clear from reporting on other actions, that the current economic recession has drastically affected the private sector investment climate within the Northwest, particularly in construction of new employment buildings and housing although not quite so much as yet reported in R&D or inward investment projects.

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Quality of Life CULTURE AND IMAGE (RES ACTIONS 95-105) Progress Good impact reported from marketing programmes with highlights being the Cultural marketing campaign generating £67 million visitor spend, Golf Coast and Gardens campaigns being similar; and major supplements within the Financial Times aimed at the business audience. Liverpool’s year as European Capital of Culture generated £176 million tourism spend from 3.5 million first time visitors to the city, with unprecedented media coverage of over 12,000 articles globally, and key events including MTV music awards (30 million viewers worldwide). Work took place to develop opportunities linked to London Olympics 2012 and 66 Northwest companies have secured contracts related to the games; three countries have now signed a memorandum of understanding locating their training bases in the Northwest. Generally in Sport, a sector strategy is prepared and the national skills academy for outdoor sport is open at the University of Cumbria. Tourism projects report funding achieved for Blackpool Seachange, Hadrian’s Wall; work is continuing on detailed designs for Chester Zoo improvements; conceptual masterplanning has taken place for Jodrell Bank; physical infrastructure and public realm investment continues in Southport; Tourist Information Centres have received investment; and the productivity programme for tourism businesses reports take-up of 260 businesses. Data A mixed set of data outcomes, some of which represent a slight drop from high values last year. Latest data is generally 2007, and shows falls in some tourism indicators although overseas spend did increase. The percentage participating in arts decreased (latest data 2006/07), and in image terms residents’ perceptions improved slightly while the business outlook fell. Implications It will be important to ensure that marketing campaigns respond to the current recessionary climate. Liverpool is now a European Cultural Capital and needs to continue to utilise and prioritise the legacy programme from 2008. Opportunities connected to the Olympics and to sport continue to need focus and engagement. A challenge for the tourism industry remains productivity and critical mass, with the structure of the industry remaining predominately characterised by smaller, low-productivity businesses.

COMMUNITY (RES ACTIONS 106-112) Progress Government Office report relatively good progress on strategic activity around reducing reoffending, alcohol, (where a programme of lobbying has followed the regional Big Drink Debate), and supporting partnerships to reduce violence; reoffending and violence targets appear in a number of Local-Area Agreements. The Voluntary Sector reports structural barriers to progress but work is underway to draw the sector together around common evidence and the establishment of stronger infrastructure and a clear action plan. All 22 Local-Area Agreements were signed off as planned, and refreshed by March 2009; of the potential four regional Multi-Area Agreements, Manchester, Pennine Lancaster, and the first platform of the Liverpool City Region Multi-Area Agreements were also signed off. Regionally, a number of capacity-building and information-sharing seminars have been held to progress the elements of the Regional Equality and Diversity Strategy.

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Data Indicators for this factor are chosen to illustrate aspects of social and economic cohesion, experience of local public services, and crime. Most indicators are updated this year and the overall picture is relatively strong, particularly in that fear of crime and actual crime levels have both fallen year on year, and represent now a substantial improvement over the 2006 baseline data. Public services ratings remain the same. On aspects of economic and social inclusion, there are some indications that employment for disadvantage groups is improving, and the number of local authorities reporting an exceptional number of Incapacity Benefit claimants has fallen, but 12% of households remain below 60% of the median income level, exactly the same figure as in 2006. Implications Reduced resources due to public sector financial constraints may limit planned activities, both strategic and project-based. As the recession increases the risk of social exclusion, the voluntary and community sector will need to set out plans for a stronger regional infrastructure and shared approach to delivery. Local and Multi-Area Agreements carry the potential to take a significant step forward in the governance arrangements and effectiveness of Local Authorities on tackling issues.

ENVIRONMENT (RES ACTIONS 113-122) Progress A number of workstreams within the remit of Natural Economy Northwest report good results, with highlights being Green Infrastructure events with the Sub-Regional Partnerships, the publication of a report on “The Economic Value of Green Infrastructure”, the Business Advice pilot and natural tourism developments; examples of projects delivering socio-economic benefits being Green Roofs in Manchester and Dutton Park Reducing Worklessness. Similarly, Mersey Waterfront Regional Park reports good results, including progress on redevelopment of New Brighton’s seafront and promenades and environmental improvements. The Regional Design Review programme, which strives to promote good building and environmental design, has reviewed 79 schemes form 17 Local Authorities and delivered extensive training and participation. The Regional Forestry Framework continues to deliver well with 95% of planned actions underway and 126ha of brownfield land regenerated this year under the Newlands programme. Flood risk is a key part of the Environment RES factors and during 2008-09 nearly 5,000 properties were protected to an improved standard, through two schemes, Lancaster St Georges Quay and Stanah Embankment on the Wyre coast. Around the region, the flood warning service has been extended to now cover 120,000 homes. Data Unfortunately it is impossible to assess progress in this RES factor. The little we can say is that the number of agricultural employees seems to have dropped fairly dramatically (possibly data inaccuracy goes some way to explain this); however, agriculture remains 2-3% of Rural Gross Value Added. Implications and Further Actions/Barriers It will be important to capitalise on and ensure continuation of learning and expertise developed through elements of the Natural Economy Northwest programme. There are emerging regional park proposals in Lancashire; and the Environment Agency will be engaged in a major review of Shoreline Management Plans during 2009-10.

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Appendix 1: Further information on 8 Headline Targets. Note: Those items marked in green are moving in the right direction and are on track to meet the target. Those items in amber are moving in the right direction, but not quickly enough to meet the target. Those items in red are moving in the wrong direction. GVA The headline Gross Value Added (GVA) of the Northwest has increased by £6.7 billion from 2006 to 2007 (5.9%). However headline GVA growth has been below the England average of 6.1%. The GVA gap has fallen to £19.9 billion from £20.7 billion, the first year of reduction over the period of the current RES1. The GVA gap of £19.9 billion is accounted for by: • £5.8 billion due to fewer people of working age and fewer people working than the England average compared to £5.9 billion last year, £5.7 billion 2006 data and £4.2 billion 2005 data. • £14.0 billion due to lower productivity of those in work compared to £14.3 billion in the RES base year (2005 data) and £14.8 billion in last year’s assessment. Sub-regionally the contribution to GVA gap is shown in the bar chart below together with changes from the RES2006 base year data.

Deprivation There has been no update available on measures of deprivation this year. Target 2006-2009

Measure

2006 Baseline (data 2004)

Deprivation (latest Reduce the number of areas in the worst 5% nationally. (In the longer term less than 20% of people with a household income less than 60% of the GB median)

data 2007): No. of areas in 579 worst 5%: % of people in 12% households with income less than 60% of GB median

2007 Update (data 2005)

2008 Update (data 2006)

2009 Update (data 2007)

No Update

569

No update

No Update

12%

No update

1

There has been a change in the methodology used to calculate the GVA per capita gap with England, to better approximate with that used by ONS to analyse productivity differentials between England and the regions. This has resulted in revisions to previous figures quoted in the RES and previous RES updates. (Sub-regional data lags regional data by one year; therefore the latest available data is for 2006).

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Northwest Regional Economic Strategy

CO2 Emissions Determining a methodology and baseline year for assessing CO2 emissions is fraught with difficulties. Ongoing work tentatively implies that the region is on track to achieve its RES 20062009 target of reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GVA (ÂŁ). From 1990 to 2006, CO2 emissions have reduced (although the 1990 data is not directly comparable to the 2005/06 data) and the GVA has increased, which means that as a region we have become more efficient since the baseline year.

Total GVA (ÂŁ million)

CO2 emissions (kt CO2)

CO2 Emissions per Unit of GVA

% Change CO2

1990*

2005*

2006*

1990***

2005**

2006**

1990

2005

2006

2005-6

North West

54,796

107,375

112,955

63,653

59,959

59,455

1.16

0.56

0.53

-0.84

UK

514,421

1,115,121 1,177,232

592,167

532,373

531,735

1.15

0.48

0.45

-0.12

Source: * ONS, ** Defra, *** AEA Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions study (2009) Note that this data is indicative only. The CO2 emissions data is from multiple sources that might not be directly comparable.

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Appendix 2: Assessment of Transformational Actions ACHIEVED: Transformational Actions which are fully or largely achieved; or – in the case of long-term infrastructure actions – which have made the progress appropriate over the RES period.

BUSINESS: 1. 9. 12. 15. 17. 23. 24.

Transform Business Link Northwest Secure MediaCityUK Enable business to implement innovation Implement the Northwest Science Strategy Assist companies to compete & develop Internationalisation Strategy Improve Business Resource Efficiency support Develop and implement a Regional Climate Change Action Plan

SKILLS: 26. 37. 38.

Deliver basic skills for individuals without qualifications Educational Infrastructure: 14-19 Educational Infrastructure: Higher Education

PEOPLE & JOBS: 45. 54. 56.

Develop job brokerage linking employers and individuals Capitalise on the strengths of Manchester, Liverpool and Preston Implement Regional Rural Delivery Framework

INFRASTRUCTURE: 63. 65. 72.

Demand management and infrastructure improvements in Greater Manchester and Cheshire/Warrington Develop the second Mersey Crossing Grow Manchester and Liverpool Airports

QUALITY OF LIFE: 96. 101. 111. 113. 119.

Support Liverpool European Capital of Culture 2008 Improve Tourism Attack Brands and Signature Projects Develop the Regional Equality and Diversity Strategy Develop the economic benefit of the Natural Environment Invest in Quality Public Realm and Green Space

AFFECTED BY RECESSION: Transformational Actions where the possibility of achieving the intended outcomes or impacts has been severely affected by the current economic climate, or which have had to adapt substantially to the effects of recession.

BUSINESS: 16.

Support the development of major research and knowledge nuclei

SKILLS: 31. Develop skills in the current workforce

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PEOPLE & JOBS: 43. Deliver employability activities and support 44. Develop intensive support for groups with low employment rates 55. Private sector investment into Crewe, Chester, Warrington, Lancaster and Carlisle

INFRASTRUCTURE: 63. 65. 72.

Demand management and infrastructure improvements in Greater Manchester and Cheshire/Warrington Develop the second Mersey Crossing Grow Manchester and Liverpool Airports

QUALITY OF LIFE:

EMBED AND EXTEND: Transformational Actions where activity has been underway but which has not yet delivered the intended impact, often a long-term goal, and which will need further focus to embed or extend their achievements.

BUSINESS: 8. Sector and cluster development 13. Enhance business/HEI knowledge transfer

SKILLS: 27. Deliver skills required by priority sectors 28. Deliver skills to maximise key growth opportunities 35. Develop management/leadership and CSR skills

PEOPLE & JOBS: 47-50 Stimulated economic activity in identified areas remote from growth: Pennine Lancashire, Blackpool, Barrow, West Cumbria 52 Encourage employment creation in or near deprived areas

INFRASTRUCTURE: 64. 66. 67. 73. 77.

Improve road access to Liverpool City Centre Reduce levels of congestion through public transport Identify and delivery capacity improvements Manchester Rail Hub Grow the Port of Liverpool Develop Manchester Metrolink and Merseyrail extensions

QUALITY OF LIFE: 114. Implement the Lake District Economic Futures Policy Statement

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This document can be made available in the following languages: Bengali, Chinese, Gujarati, Somali, Urdu and Hindi. Please contact the Marketing Department on 01925 400 100

This document can be made available in large print, braille and audio tape. Please contact the Marketing Department on 01925 400 100 www.nwda.co.uk

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The Northwest Regional Development Agency Renaissance House Centre Park Warrington WA1 1QN Tel: +44 (0)1925 400 100 Fax: +44 (0)1925 400 400

www.nwda.co.uk www.enw.co.uk/visit www.enw.co.uk/invest

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2009 NWDA j7-20


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