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Regional Economic Forecasting Panel

State of the Northwest Economy A Long-term Forecast for the Northwest 2010–2030

March 2010

Produced by the Regional Economic Forecasting Panel on behalf of the

Regional Intelligence Unit www.nwriu.co.uk


This report has been published by the Northwest Regional Development Agency Research Team as part of its continuing commitment to inform the economic development of the Northwest of England. It has been produced by SQW Ltd and Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, economic development consultancies, on behalf of the Northwest Economic Forecasting Panel. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report neither panel, SQW Ltd, CE Ltd nor the Research Team can accept any responsibility for the decision based on the material that follows. Cover: ‘© Crown Copyright and database right 2009. Ordnance Survey Licence GD021102’

Further Information If you require further information on the work of the panel, please contact Nicola Christie. Press enquiries should be addressed to Neil Roscoe. Nicola Christie Economist Research Team, NWDA nicola.christie@nwda.co.uk 01925 400293 Neil Roscoe Senior Press Officer NWDA neil.roscoe@nwda.co.uk 01925 400232


Contents Executive Summary

i

Introduction

1

Setting the Scene – A summary

3

“Mind the Gap” – Understanding the scope/scale of the Northwest’s prosperity gap

11

The Environmental Impacts of Growth

17

The Panel Forecast for 2010-2030 and Risks

23

Annex A: Setting the Scene – A more detailed analysis

29

Annex B: Forecasting Evidence

43


Executive Summary •

Why is wealth per head in the Northwest 14% below the UK equivalent? How big is the gap if we exclude the South East? Can anything be done about it? The Panel addresses these important questions in the context of its long-term forecast for the Northwest economy. One of the greatest challenges for the Northwest economy is to close the wealth gap with others whilst reducing the carbon intensity of its activities in line with new political priorities on Climate Change.

The gap between UK and Northwest annual economic growth rates has narrowed a touch in the first decade of the millennium and there was an appreciable narrowing of the wealth per head gap in 2008 as the financial crisis hit other parts of the UK harder. At a micro-level there has been some success in tackling determinants of productivity – start-up rates are rising faster than the UK and some skills deficiencies have been addressed amongst the very low skilled.

The key drivers of long-term economic performance are population (and working age population), employment and productivity (and its drivers). The Panel’s annual assessment following a detailed review of each is that there has been no change in the relative position of the Northwest compared to the UK across most indicators. That is reflected in marginal changes to the Panel’s long-term forecast. It means the daunting long-term trends on productivity and wealth remain challenges for the Single Regional Strategy currently under development for the Northwest region.

The Northwest’s wealth gap with the UK has widened progressively over the last 35 years. Many factors influence long-term productivity gaps, but one structural trend stands out. Since the late 1970s the region has lost relatively high productivity jobs in manufacturing and created lower productivity jobs in services. In many of the service sectors in question – financial, professional and public – the Northwest has not been able to match the high value jobs in larger service sectors to the South. This is reflected in lower fees and salaries associated with these activities, and ultimately in lower wealth per head.

The region’s 14% wealth gap with the UK equates to £20.4bn, or put another way, about the size of the Merseyside economy. The region has a smaller wealth gap than the West Midlands, Yorkshire and the North East, and its gap with the UK drops to £2.4bn if we exclude London and the South East. In the Panel’s view, the Northwest should aim to be at the top of the UK wealth table (excluding London and the South East – it currently sits 4th in terms of GVA per head), but that its ambitions might go further still by bench-marking to those regions in Europe and the USA who have out-performed their national economy.

Productivity matters. That is the inescapable conclusion from this report. Wealth per head is a function of the number of people available for work, the number actually working, the number of hours they work and, crucially, how well they work in each of those hours i.e. productivity. The region performs relatively well in terms of employment rates and having people available for work. Productivity accounts for over 70% of the Northwest’s wealth gap with the UK.

Improving the region’s productivity is a complex challenge and the trade-offs are politically challenging. The Northwest economy has been relatively successful in job creation since 2000 but the creation of high quality jobs, i.e. higher paying jobs which close the wealth gap, is proving more challenging.

The political imperative to reduce the carbon-intensity of economic activity is an important factor in the productivity and wealth challenges facing the region. It is reflected in national legislation and the priorities in the Single Regional Strategy programme for each English region. The Northwest accounts for 9% of the UK’s carbon emissions, compared to 10% of its GVA. The Northwest has reduced its emissions by 18% between 1990 and 2007, well ahead of the UK figure. Preliminary analysis undertaken for this reports suggests the region might need to reduce its emissions by 38% between 2007 and 2030. If the region’s long-term growth follows the trajectory envisaged by the Panel’s economic forecast it will only deliver a 26% reduction.

Page i


•

One way to achieve the target is to grow more slowly (and emit less carbon). That could run counter to the broader wealth creation challenge facing the region. The Northwest could be well placed to reconcile these challenges as its economic structure evolves. The Panel see the carbon reduction agenda as a dynamic opportunity for business and society in the Northwest to capitalise on its comparative advantages in nuclear, other renewable energy and re-use technologies.

•

The production of this report has been supported by SQW Consulting and Cambridge Econometrics. In order to produce a single base forecast, the Panel has drawn on forecasts from two additional forecasting houses: Oxford Economic Forecasting and Experian. The co-operation and assistance of these organisations is much appreciated, although the responsibility for the forecasts presented here is that of the Panel. While the Panel enjoys the support of the NWDA, it is fully independent in the views and material it publishes. Our papers can be found at www.nwriu.co.uk. We would welcome any comments on our work through nicola.christie@nwda.co.uk.

Andrew McLaughlin Panel Chair

Page ii


Page iii


Introduction •

This is the Long-Term Forecast report for the Northwest of England for the period 2010 – 2030, produced by the Northwest Regional Economic Forecasting Panel (REFP). The forecast follows the Panel’s winter meeting of January 2010.

Reflecting the previous practice, the Panel focused on GVA per head, in line with the Government’s measure of sustainable economic growth in all English regions, and the target to reduce persistent gaps in GVA per head between regions in the longer run. Throughout this report, the focus is on how the region has grown relative to the UK, the factors which have influenced this, and how the Northwest might grow relative to the UK over the next 20 years. As with the Panel’s previous long-term forecasts, this comparative approach enables a view to be taken on how trends in population, employment and productivity might widen (or close) relative to the UK because of various influences, leading to an overall judgement on the growth gap in GVA.

Whilst the Panel’s Short-Term Forecast Reports, produced twice yearly, are designed with a private sector audience in mind, the main purpose of this Long-Term Forecast Report is to influence public policy makers and to help shape the direction of policy going forwards over the longer-term. Informed by the evidence base presented in this report and the work experiences of Panel Members, this Long-Term Report seeks to draw-out issues such as skills, business competitiveness and worklessness which are pertinent to Government policy and intervention at regional and national levels.

This Long-Term Forecast builds on the regional and sub-regional forecasting work undertaken by the Panel in 2009, and will act as an updated baseline forecast for the forthcoming Single Regional Strategy (SRS). On 12 November 2009, the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Bill received Royal Assent, which now confirms the joint duty on Regional Development Agencies and Local Authorities to produce SRSs for the English regions. The process of developing the Northwest SRS is well underway; a draft Strategic Framework was published for an eight-week public consultation on 4 January 2010. Building on the baseline or ‘business as usual’ forecast of economic growth which the Panel has developed in this report, over the coming months regional partners will decide their level of aspirational growth, based on the vision, objectives and activities proposed in the revised SRS over the forthcoming year.

Against this background, this forecast is divided into four sections:

Section 1: Setting the Scene. This provides an overview of recent trends in GVA and GVA performance in the Northwest relative to the UK; a full analysis is available in Annex A. Trends in the key factors influencing growth are summarised as follows:

Population – changes in total and working age populations, including net internal and international migration into the region

Employment – changes in employment, and in the proportion of the working population which is economically active and available for work

Productivity and its drivers – changes in the GVA generated per job in the workplace, and trends in enterprise, skills, innovation and investment.

Section 2: ‘Mind the Gap’. In this Section, the scale of the GVA gap between the Northwest and the UK is characterised, compared to other regions, and causal factors are explored. There then follows a discussion on if, and how, the gap could be closed, the scale of change needed to achieve this, and the Panel’s view on the implications for public policy.

Page 1


Section 3: The environmental impacts of growth. Using Cambridge Econometrics’ Regional Economy Environment Input Output (REEIO) model, this Section estimates the potential environmental impacts (in terms of carbon emissions) associated with the Panel’s GVA forecast contained in this report, and highlights the implications of such a growth rate in relation to meeting the Government’s carbon targets.

Section 4: Developing the Long-Term Forecast. Drawing on the evidence on page 1 and the independent forecasts of three national forecasting houses (presented in Annex B), this final Section presents the Panel’s Long-Term Forecast, together with the Panel’s assessment on those risks to which the forecast might be subject. In the round, the forecast looks 20 years ahead to 2030, but as before the Panel has split its forecast into two periods: 2009 to 2015 (up until when recession impacts are likely to remain substantively in play) and from 2015 to 2030 (where longer-term growth rates are expected to resume).

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SECTION 1: SETTING THE SCENE

Page 3


Growth trends in the Northwest Figure 1 Annual growth in GVA in the Northwest & UK (2003 prices) (Source: Regional Accounts & Cambridge Econometrics)

Overall, the evidence from SQW/CE’s underpinning analysis of past trends suggests there have not been significant changes in this aggregate GVA and GVA per resident head position since the Panel’s last long-term forecast. More detail is available in Annex A, which contains a full analysis of past trends.

Between 1990 and 2008, Gross Value Added (GVA) in the Northwest grew by 42.5%, equivalent to 2.0% per annum (pa). This is broadly in line with the growth rates experienced in the West Midlands (2.0% pa) and Yorkshire and Humber (2.2% pa) over the same period.

Whilst the gap in the Northwest’s GVA growth rate with the UK has fluctuated considerably over the last twenty years, on average the region has grown more slowly than the UK (by 0.5pp pa) since 1990. More recently (2000-2008), the region has managed to close the growth gap to 0.3pp pa, with an ambient growth rate of 2.1% pa.

As Figure 2 shows, the gap in GVA per resident head between the Northwest and UK stood at 14.2% in 2008 (current prices), compared to 15.9% for the West Midlands and 19.0% for Yorkshire and Humber. Since 1990, this gap has widened progressively, although 2007/2008 saw a slight narrowing. However, this is likely to result from the economic downturn impacting more on the South than the North at that point, and it remains to be seen whether the Northwest’s improvement is substantive.

4% 3%

UK

2%

Northwest

1% 0% -1% -2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Percentage growth in GVA

5%

Figure 2 GVA per resident head – % difference between the regions and UK (current prices) (Source: Regional Accounts & Cambridge Econometrics)

18% Northwest 16% West Midlands

14% 12%

Yorkshire & Humber

10% 8% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GVA per head % difference between regions & UK

20%

Page 4


Key factors influencing growth Summary of past trends, the Panel’s Long-Term Forecast in January 2009, and new evidence in 2010 •

The region’s GVA growth is determined by three key factors: population (and working age population (WAP)), employment, and productivity (and its drivers).

Table 1 (page 6) summarises the latest estimates for past growth in the region relative to the UK over the longer (1990-2008) and shorter (2000-2008) terms, and compares this against the Panel’s forecast set in January 2009. At all three stages, GVA growth in the Northwest has been slower than the UK, but since 2000 the GVA growth gap with the UK has reduced. However, this period also saw very strong employment growth in the Northwest, which resulted in a sharp fall in the rate of productivity growth for the Northwest.

In January 2009, the Panel revised down its forecast for the gap in GVA growth rates from -0.4pp to -0.3pp (and therefore the scale of underperformance was thought likely to be less marked than in the past), but the Panel still expected growth in the Northwest’s GVA and GVA per head to continue to lag behind the UK through to 2030. The Panel also expected the Northwest to see a relatively modest growth in population which would mitigate the impact of weaker growth in GVA per capita.

The evidence shown in Table 1 has been used to inform the Panel’s judgement on whether there have been any changes in the underlying conditions and performance of the Northwest, relative to the UK, since last year that might suggest the growth gap is closing from 0.3pp pa.

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Key factors influencing growth Table 1 Average per annum growth, the Panel’s Forecast Position in January 2009 and update on evidence in January 2010 Population growth pa

Northwest (%)

UK (%)

NW differential (pp)

1990–2008

0.1

0.4

-0.3

2000–2008

0.2

0.5

-0.3

0.2 (2008–15) and 0.3 (2015–30)

0.5 (2008–15) and 0.6 (2015–30)

-0.3 (2008–15) and -0.3 (2015–30)

January 2009 Forecast

No change in relative position since previous Panel report in January 2009. •

The Northwest’s population growth has plateaued, as UK population continues to grow.

The region saw a net gain of internal migrants in early 2000s, but is now experiencing net loss; the flow of international migrants into the region is slowing.

The outflow of young adults (aged 20-34) has been faster in the Northwest (-15%) compared to UK (-9%) since 1991.

Update since last year’s Panel report

Growth gap remains

ONS population projections expect WAP to grow at 0.1% pa in the Northwest, compared to UK average of 0.5% pa (2009-2030); a gap of -0.4pp. Employment growth pa

Northwest (%)

UK (%)

NW differential (pp)

1990–2008

0.3

0.5

-0.2

2000–2008

0.8

0.9

-0.1

-0.1 (2008–15) and 0.3 (2015–30)

0.1 (2008–15) and 0.4 (2015–30)

-0.2 (2008–15) and -0.1 (2015–30)

January 2009 Forecast

Since 2004, the growth in jobs in the Northwest has slowed to 0.2% pa compared to 0.8% pa for the UK (-0.6pp). Update since last year’s Panel report

Forecasts to 2030 expect growth of 0.2% pa in the Northwest and 0.4% pa for the UK (-0.2pp).

The Northwest underperforms compared to the UK in terms of employment rates, and the gap in employment rates has widened from 1.5pp in 2003/04 to 2.8pp in 2008/09.

Growth gap remains, but due to close slightly in long-term

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Key factors influencing growth Productivity growth (GVA per job) pa

Northwest (%)

UK (%)

NW differential (pp)

1990–2008

1.7

2.0

-0.3

2000–2008

1.3

1.5

-0.3

1.5 (2008–15) and 1.8 (2015–30)

1.6 (2008–15) and 2.0 (2015–30)

-0.2 (2008–15) and -0.2 (2015–30)

January 2009 Forecast

Productivity •

The Northwest’s productivity (GVA per workplace job) remains below the UK average, and since 1990 productivity in the Northwest has increased by 1.7% pa compared to 2.0% pa for the UK (-0.3pp). The shift to services continues to act as a drag on Northwest productivity performance, and the region’s productivity gap in services has widened continuously over the last 10 years.

Gap remains

Gap closing

Level 4 +gap widening, but gap in no quals is narrowing.

Productivity drivers

Update since last year’s Panel report

Enterprise - The Northwest underperforms compared to the UK on enterprise rates, but the gap has closed from 6.1 per 10,000 of the Working Age Population (WAP) in 2004 to 5.8 in 2008.

Skills - The proportion qualified to Level 4+ is lower in the Northwest (26%) compared to the UK (29%), and improvement in the region since 1990 (up 6pp) was slower than the UK (6.3pp). 15% of the Northwest’s WAP have no qualifications, compared to a national average of 12%, but since 1990 improvement in the Northwest has outpaced the UK to close the gap.

Investment - Net capex as a proportion of GVA continues to exceed the UK in manufacturing (by 0.4pp) and services (by 0.8pp), but average net capex per business was 1.8% below the UK in 2007. The Northwest also has a past dependency on the public sector as a source of investment. Innovation – The Northwest expenditure on R&D as a proportion of GVA is consistently strong (0.3pp above the UK), especially in manufacturing (1.3pp above the UK), but NW only secured 6% of the UK’s venture capital in 2007, with OECD suggesting there is a lack of ‘investment ready’ firms in the region.

Mixed

Mixed

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Key factors influencing growth GVA growth pa

Northwest (%)

UK (%)

NW differential (pp)

1990–2008

2.0

2.5

-0.5

2000–2008

2.1

2.4

-0.3

1.4 (2008–15) and 2.1 (2015–30)

1.7 (2008–15) and 2.4 (2015–30)

-0.3 (2008–15) and -0.3 (2015–30)

January 2009 Forecast Update since last year’s Panel report

Gap in GVA growth rate since 2000 persists at -0.3pp pa.

Gap remains

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Key factors influencing growth Panel Assessment • Overall, the Panel noted at its January meeting that the region’s long-term economic performance, and the underlying factors contributing to this, have not changed significantly since the Panel’s last Long-Term Report. Its view remains that there has been no change in the relative position of the Northwest compared to the UK across most indicators. Demography and jobs • Population growth continues to slow in the Northwest, as the region experiences a net outflow of internal migrants and has seen a sharp fall back in international migration (particularly since 2002) which has tended to bolster the region’s supply of working age people in the past. The region also continues to lose young adults at a faster rate than the UK average. When combined, these trends could have implications for the size of the region’s pool of working age people – and ultimately the region’s productive potential in the long-term – which remains a concern for the Panel. The Panel does not, therefore, anticipate an improvement in the region’s relative position in terms of population growth over the long-term in this ‘business as usual’ forecast. •

On the upside, the Panel notes that the high birth rates amongst some Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities in the region could provide an opportunity for growth in the long-run and, whilst this would only impact upon WAP towards the end of the forecast period, the Panel emphasises the need for policy makers to ensure that the supply of jobs matches the growing population base in these areas. This remains an upside risk for the time being.

The region has suffered more than the UK average in terms of recent employment losses, and so accordingly the gap in employment rates has widened. The growth in jobs is not yet showing signs of returning to longer-term rates of growth, and the Northwest continues to lag behind the UK. Future jobs growth is likely to be mixed – some Panel members have reported seeing some recovery and recruitment in the private sector, but also raise concerns about the future loss of public sector jobs (particularly in Merseyside) and the risk of defence cuts (particularly for Lancashire and Cumbria), resulting from the Defence Review. Overall, the Panel questions whether it is reasonable to assume that employment levels, especially in the public sector, will return to current levels during the forecast period to 2030.

Productivity and its drivers • The Panel notes that sectoral restructuring in the Northwest towards services (which are typically less productive jobs in the region) and away from manufacturing (which comparatively, has higher job productivity) has led the productivity gap with the UK to widen. The Panel also warns that as this structural shift continues, the gap could widen further over time. Fee rates in the Northwest’s service sector were lower than their counterparts in London/South East, which goes some way to explaining the lower productivity in the region’s service sector. In understanding the productivity gap, the Panel has expressed interest in further research to explore whether a comparatively less productive workforce in the Northwest results from supply side issues (such as a lack of skilled labour available to attract high value activities) or demand side ones (such as a lack of businesses in the Northwest to demand high level skills). •

There is more positive news with regard to enterprise, where evidence suggests the gap in business start-up rates is narrowing, and the Panel intimates that this may have further to go if the recession causes the number of start-ups to increase further as a result of rising unemployment. Such changes are unlikely to be reflected in official statistics as yet, but may provide an opportunity for the Northwest to improve its performance in enterprise.

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Key factors influencing growth •

The proportion of WAP with no qualifications has fallen in the Northwest more quickly than the UK average since 1990, enabling the gap to close, but the gap in Level 4+ qualifications has widened – and it is this under-performance at the top end which is a concern for the Panel, especially given the significant number of young people graduating with Level 4 qualifications from the region’s universities. Furthermore, private sector firms in the Northwest which are starting to recruit are finding it difficult to find well-qualified candidates. As a result of the recession, many well-qualified workers in employment want to ‘stay put’, and it remains unclear how long it will take for their confidence to move jobs to return. Given the slow progress on higher-end skills, existing skill differentials with the UK are likely to remain.

The Northwest has performed well on innovation in the past, and the region is well placed to take advantage of technological developments such as green energy. That said, there is some concern amongst Panel members that not enough is being done to promote the region as a centre of excellence in this regard and to encourage the development of new clusters of companies (in the way that other places, such as Cambridge, have done in the past).

The future for investment is extremely uncertain, especially in the public sector. This is considered a major risk to the region’s productivity performance given the region’s dependency on public sector investment in the past, and the Panel continues to keep a watchful eye on the implications of public sector austerity for the region. Overall the Panel is not confident that investment will increase in the future, and so the region may lose the differential investment advantage experienced in the past.

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SECTION 2: ‘MIND THE GAP’ Defining and Explaining the Northwest’s Prosperity Gap

Page 11


Scale of the gap (1) – International comparison •

This Section looks at the GVA and GVA per resident head gap in more detail in order to understand the scale of the gap faced by the Northwest, and the factors underpinning this. It then identifies, in headline terms, the levers potentially available to the region to close this gap, and the likely scale of change required to impact upon the gap. Alongside other evidence, this analysis requested by the Panel may be instructive for the forthcoming SRS. To begin with, Table 2 compares the performance of the UK, the Northwest and selected English regions with the USA’s performance in terms of prosperity (measured by GDP per head) and factors that underpin this (productivity, hours worked and number in work). A value below 100 indicates underperformance compared to the USA. The key messages arising from this analysis are as follows: Prosperity (GDP per head) in the UK is one quarter below that of the USA. The majority of this difference is due to productivity, where the UK underperforms by 19% compared to the USA By comparison, in Germany and France - arguably the UK’s main competitors in Europe - the productivity of those in work is much higher than in the UK. In these countries, a larger share of the gap is attributable to fewer hours worked (in Germany) or the number in work (in France). Whilst there are clear differences in governance structures (such as the Federal system in Germany) and the treatment of rights to jobs (in France), the difference in performance across these countries is more stark than might be expected given a broadly common European framework

Table 2: Prosperity of national economies relative to the USA (USA=100) 2008 Prosperity

How well you work (productivity)

How hard you work

How many work

GDP per head

GDP per hour

Hours per worker

Employment rate

Norway

124

136

83

110

France

70

96

91

91

Germany

75

91

84

99

Spain

67

77

96

92

Italy

66

74

106

83

Poland

37

38

116

84

UK

76

81

97

103

Northwest

64

75

97

99

West Midlands

64

73

96

99

South East

79

85

96

109

Source: International figures taken from the ‘OECD StatExtracts Database’ and national figures sourced from ONS. Figures may not sum due to differences in OECD source datasets across each factor and rounding of published OECD data.

In the Northwest, prosperity is 36% below the USA. This gap is not predominantly due to hours worked or the number in work (these factors only account for a small proportion of the gap). The major issue is productivity, where the Northwest level is 75% of the USA average GVA per head in Norway is considered ‘best in class’ compared to the USA, which again is due to higher productivity of workers (reflecting Oil and Gas production) rather than employment rates or hours worked (the Norwegians actually work considerably fewer hours per worker than in the USA).

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Scale of the gap (2) – National comparisons Table 3: Prosperity of regions relative to the UK1 (UK=100) 2008 Prosperity

How well you work (productivity)

How hard you work

GDP per head

GDP per hour

Hours per worker

Employment rate

WAP as % of total pop

Northwest

86

90

100

96

99

West Midlands

85

89

101

97

98

Yorkshire & Humber

83

86

99

98

100

South East

106

100

101

106

99

This trend is not new – the gap in the Northwest’s GVA per head relative to the UK has widened progressively over the last 35 years. The issue is therefore well embedded in the Northwest economy, and reversing this trend will require a fundamental shift in performance.

Again, it is clear that the majority of the Northwest’s gap with the UK is due to how well people work (i.e. the productivity of those in work), rather than how many people work or the number of hours worked (where the Northwest matches or is not far behind the UK average). This issue is explained in more detail below, but it is a critical one for the region as it develops its SRS, particularly as Government indicatively requires the strategy to focus on ‘sustainable economic growth’ as one of three key outcomes (alongside housing numbers, and CO2 emissions).

Using the figures in Table 3, the value of the Northwest’s GVA gap in 2008 compared to the UK (based on population size in 2008), was £20.4bn. This is roughly equivalent to the size of Merseyside’s economy. In the West Midlands, the scale of the gap was £16.5bn, and for Yorkshire and Humber £17.8bn2. As ever, a major factor determining the gap through GVA per head is the performance of London and the South East – if these regions are excluded from the UK figure, the scale of the gap between the Northwest and the rest of the UK (excl London/SE) reduces to £2.4bn, (equivalent to 2% of the region’s economy).

How many How many work available to work

Sources: GVA per head from ONS Regional Accounts (in current basic prices) GVA per hour from Cambridge Econometrics data, hours worked from ONS ASHE, employment rate from APS, WAP from NOMIS Mid-Year Population estimates.

Table 3 compares performance in GVA per head and the factors underpinning this in the Northwest with the UK and selected comparator regions. This shows that GVA per head in the Northwest is 86% of the UK average, a similar gap to that seen in the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber, whereas the South East outperforms the UK average.

Over time, the scale of the gap between Northwest GVA per head and the UK has increased. In 1998, GVA per head in the region was 88% of the UK average, equivalent to a 2.7pp increase in the gap over the last ten years.

UK less Extra-Regio. GVA is used here as the standard measure of economic output by Government for the UK regions.

1

2 While the GVA per head gap is similar for the three regions, the absolute magnitude of the gap is larger for the Northwest simply because its population is larger.

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Factors contributing to the gap •

The scale of the GVA gap reflects the proportion of people of working age, employment rates, hours worked and the productivity of those in work. Of the Northwest’s £20.4bn gap with the UK in 2008: £5.9bn (or 29%) is due to lower working age population, lower employment rates, and lower hours worked £14.5bn (or 71%) is due to ‘productivity’ factors.

The £14.5bn relating to ‘productivity’ factors can be further decomposed as follows: £1.9bn (13%) is due to the industrial structure of the Northwest A further £2.9bn (20%) is due to the occupational structure £5.5bn (or 38%) is due to lower regional prices The remaining £4.3bn (30%) is not easily explained in detail, but potentially arises because of differences in the types of work done in the region compared to elsewhere within the same occupation (and the associated differences in pay at each level, as illustrated on page 38).

In terms of the industrial structure, differences between the Northwest’s sectoral mix and the UK ‘average’ partly reflect differences in specialisation that necessarily arise in sectors where economies of scale are important, and partly reflect weaknesses in the competitiveness of Northwest firms. It is also important to note that some sectors in which the region is more specialised than the UK (e.g. manufacturing) are contributing positively to closing the GVA gap because they are high productivity sectors. If the share of manufacturing in the region was reduced to match the UK average, the GVA gap would actually increase. Manufacturing in the region matters for regional productivity.

The £5.5bn of gap that is due to lower regional prices is largely out of the control of regional partners, reflecting on it the different costs of winning and doing business across the UK. Given that it is essentially out of the gift of the region, arguments are made that it should be excluded. Whilst these are understood, regional prices are an important factor in regional competitiveness, and for this reason the regional price effect is included in the assessment that follows. The remaining gap of £14.9bn is due to other factors – working age population, employment rates, hours worked, and productivity factors – which could be influenced to change the scale of the gap. The overarching message from the evidence above is that the Northwest underperforms in both national and international contexts largely due to productivity. And above and beyond the straight gap numbers is the tactical question of who the Northwest is seeking to benchmark itself against – the straight UK average, or the UK less London and the South East.

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Closing the gap Based on the decomposition (pages 12–14), what might be potentially done to close the gap? The diagram below presents the contribution that each of the identified factors might contribute to closing the gap, and what would need to be done with each factor to: Match the UK average, and the impact this would have on closing the GVA gap (keeping all other factors constant) Close the entire GVA gap using only one lever at a time, and the consequential increase needed in the factor in question to achieve this (keeping all other factors constant). Current GVA gap = £20.4bn

Employment rate NW employment rate is 96% of UK average

The NW would need 114k more jobs to match UK average employment rate

NW hours per worker is 99.7% of UK average If NW fully matched UK hours per worker

GVA gap = £19.4bn

This would make very little change to GVA gap Hours per worker as the only lever to close entire GVA gap

Would need to work 39 hours per worker (per week), compared to 34 hours currently

rs per work

er 2% of gap in 2008

GVA gap = £19.0bn

The NW would need 26k more people of working age to match UK average

25% of gap in 2008

t

WAP rate as the only lever to close entire GVA gap

Would need a WAP rate of 72% (compared to UK av. of 62%) and 689,000 additional WAP

4% of gap in 2008

ou

Hours per worker

If NW fully matched UK WAP rate

P as % of WA opu latio al p ot

Would need to have employment rate of 83% (compared to UK av. of 74%) and 419,000 more people in work

NW WAP as % of total population is 99% of UK average

at

H

Employment rate as the only lever to close entire GVA gap

m

ment r

e

E

GVA gap = £15.2bn

ploy

n

If NW fully matched UK employment rate

WAP as % of total population

70% of gap in 2008

Pro ductivity Please note: when we test the impact of changing one indicator, we keep the other three constant. All data for 2008.

Productivity NW GVA per hour is 90% of UK average If NW fully matched UK productivity

GVA gap = £6.4bn

The NW would need GVA per hour of £1,340 (up £133 per hour) to match UK average productivity Productivity as the only lever to close entire GVA gap

Would need GVA per hour to be £1,403 (compared to a UK average of £1,340)

In the real world, the four factors above do not work in isolation, and it is not as simple as intervening in one policy area to the exclusion of others. Rather, there are a set of inter-relationships and trade-offs between the factors (so, for example, addressing the employment rate gap is likely to have implications for productivity), such that policy solutions are likely to require a mix of interventions in a variety of areas. At the same time, it is important to remember that not all the factors are as influenceable as one another, for example the region has little influence on what proportion of the population is of working age, but does have significant ability to influence employment rates and productivity (although, at present, these factors tend to be in quite different policy silos).

Page 15


Mind the gap – the Panel’s Assessment •

In considering the gap analysis (pages 12–15), the Panel acknowledge the limitations of GVA as a measure of economic prosperity and as a comparative tool. The ‘headquarters effect’, which leads to some distortion in the GVA data (estimates have to be made for the proportion of a company’s profits that are attributable to its operations in each region), remains a particular frustration for the Panel, and it would welcome further analysis of the extent to which firms in the Northwest have headquarters outside the region. That said, Panel members are of the view that it is vital to review the scale and scope of the gap, and acknowledge that a GVA deficit would most probably still exist in the Northwest even if the GVA accounting anomaly was corrected.

Going forward, the Panel believes that making international comparisons of the Northwest’s performance is essential, not only with Europe, but also further afield to the USA and China. There is a tendency to adopt a narrow UK-centric view in benchmarking activity, whereas in reality, businesses operate in global markets and the region needs to be internationally-focused and competitive if it is to draw in productive businesses and attract increasingly mobile and high quality workers.

The Panel is also of the view that elements of the GVA gap attributable to regional prices should be retained in this analysis. The Panel recognise the different schools of thought on this, with some arguing that regional prices should be excluded on the basis that they cannot be influenced. For the purposes of short-term analysis, this is often true; but given the long-term focus of this forecast, and that over time regional prices are a reflection of the type of work done in a region, then the Panel’s preference is for the regional price component to be included.

Achieving a balance of actions across the four factors highlighted on page 15 to close the productivity gap cannot solely be resolved by economic argument – politics has a role. And this is a key question for the forthcoming RS2010 – at its core, is it distributional or wealth creation in its interest imperative, is its ambition for the Northwest to be as other non-London/South East regions, or is the aspiration to be European class? In the Panel’s view, the Northwest should aim to be at the top of comparator subregions (outside London and the South East), and achieve this by focusing its attentions on improving the region’s productivity. In doing this, there are inherently competing political challenges around increasing productivity and moving people back into work (which can cause productivity to fall in the short-term). It is also much easier to create jobs (which the Northwest has done relatively well over the period of structural change) than create high quality jobs, but it is the latter that effort should focus on.

To close the prosperity gap, the Panel believes the region has two options: to increase the productivity of existing activity and/or do something different by attracting investment in activity with a much higher productivity level. On the spectrum of choice, the Panel’s view is that emphasis should be towards targeting areas which are most likely to sustain strong economic growth once public sector support is removed.

Page 16


SECTION 3: THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF GROWTH

Page 17


The impact of the carbon agenda on growth •

On 1 December 2008, the Climate Change Act was passed committing the UK to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which advises the Government, produced recommendations for interim targets to 2022, which the Government subsequently accepted and made legally binding. These are for cuts from 1990 levels of 22% by 2012, 28% by 2017, and 34% by 2022. Assuming that reductions are on track to date, this equates to a 20% reduction on 2007 levels by 2020 and a 38% reduction on 2007 levels by 2030. For the UK as a whole, the CCC estimated that the cost of achieving the target would be less than 1% of GDP. However, the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is likely to have advantages and disadvantages for different economic sectors, and the regions they are present in.

As the cost of carbon rises in response to tighter climate change mitigation policies to achieve the binding targets, further restructuring of the economy is likely because of the competitiveness effects and the knock-on effects through supply chains of reduced demand of certain types of goods. At the same time, carbon mitigation policies will provide opportunities, such as for providers of renewable energy technologies or more energy-efficient products and production techniques.

For the Northwest, it is important to understand the implications of these forces on the economy. In addition, the UK reduction target may be cascaded centrally down to the regions, or an equivalent target may be set as part of the new SRS. If this takes place, regional policy makers need to consider the contributions that can be expected to come from national or international action and agreements, and as a result, the contribution regional initiatives need to make.

The analysis which follows provides some initial evidence on the Northwest’s relative starting position. To set the scene for the following material, it is worthwhile noting the following headline data: In 2007, all activity in the Northwest (from households, transport and business) produced 13.5m tonnes of carbon emissions (49.5 MTE CO2), some 9% of the UK’s total emissions. This equates to just under 2,000 tonnes per head, or 116 tonnes per £m of GVA in the region, compared to a little over 2,400 tonnes per capita and 121 tonnes at the national level In 2007, Northwest carbon emissions were c.18% lower than their 1990 levels, whereas UK emissions were 10-12% lower The region’s largest emitters are fuel processing, chemicals and the manufacture of mineral products. These sectors all have carbon-intensities below the average for the UK.

Page 18


Carbon emissions & intensity in the Northwest Figure 3 Key sources of CO2 emissions in the Northwest (2007) (Source: Cambridge Econometrics)3

As illustrated by Figure 3, the region’s economic influence over carbon emissions is mixed. The largest source of emissions in the region came from road transport (27%), households, production and power generation (around 20% each). Services accounted for just 6% of direct emissions in the region. Although power generation accounts for a large proportion of emissions in the Northwest, it only accounted for 5% of UK emissions from the power generation sector.

Carbon-intensity of activity (as measured by CO2 emissions per unit of valueadded, or per capita) depends on the precise nature of the activity undertaken and the energy mix used to deliver it. The carbon intensity of production in the Northwest overall is about 85% that of the UK as a whole, while the carbonintensity of services, which broadly have similar energy needs across the UK, is similar to that in the UK as a whole. The region has higher per capita CO2 emissions from road transport than for the UK as a whole, reflecting both the scale of the region’s urban core, but also its extensive strategic road network that brings considerable through-traffic. Per capita emissions from households are slightly higher than for the UK as a whole.

Within manufacturing, industries that are more carbon-intensive than the average for the UK include paper, printing & publishing, electronics, mechanical and electrical engineering. However, these sectors account for a relatively small proportion of all manufacturing emissions. The largest emitters are fuel processing, chemicals and manufacture of mineral products. These sectors all have carbonintensities below the average for the UK.

20.0 18.0

Other energy industry

% of UK emissions

16.0 14.0

Households Road transport

12.0 10.0

Production Services

8.0 6.0 4.0

Other transport Power generation

2.0

Figure 4 Carbon-intensity of activity in the Northwest, 2007 (Source: Cambridge Econometrics)4 130.0 120.0

Households

110.0

Road transport

Services

UK=100

100.0 90.0

Production

80.0 70.0 60.0

Power generation

Other energy industry

Other transport

50.0 3

Size of the bubble indicates level of CO2 emissions in 2007.

Size of the bubble indicates level of CO2 emissions in 2007. Activity indicator is value-added, except for households (population), power generation (capacity) and transport (total GVA).

4

Page 19


Underlying trends in carbon emissions (1) Figure 5 Projections of CO2 emissions from activity in the Northwest consistent with the Panel’s view of long-term growth prospects (Source: Cambridge Econometrics, using REEIO model developed through SCPnet)5

Improvements in energy efficiency in households are also expected to be stronger than have been seen previously, and there is expected to be a trend towards electricity use and away from gas to meet future energy needs, especially from households and services. The carbon-intensity of UK electricity generation is expected to fall sharply as the target of 20% of generation coming from renewables is met.

Indicative projections of future carbon emissions suggest that, while the Northwest economy is growing at the Panel’s long-term rate of 2¼% pa6, associated emissions (excluding those from power generation activities in the region, or those associated with electricity consumed in the region) will fall slightly7. Behind this, emissions from transport are expected to rise slightly (assumed improvements in fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet are broadly in line with increased demand for transport from economic growth) while emissions from households, manufacturing and services are expected to fall sharply.

In 2007, Northwest emissions were c.18% lower than 1990 levels, whereas UK emissions were 10-12% lower.

170 160

Index 2007=100

150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2007

2011 Manufacturing Transport

2015

2019

2023

Services Total excl. powergen

2027 Households GVA

Future carbon emissions from activity in the region will be influenced by the size and composition of the economy, trends in energy efficiency, and the fuel choices through which future energy needs are met.

Underlying trends include improvements to energy efficiency in the medium-term, especially among energy-intensive manufacturing, with improvements made by other manufacturers lessening in the longer-term while those among services improving slightly.

5

Data excludes emissions associated with consumption of electricity in the region.

The Panel forecasts GVA growth in the Northwest to average 1.8% pa 2009-15 and 2.2% pa 2015-30. 6

7 Though much depends on the prospects for refining in the region, and the prospects for it to achieve energy efficiencies.

Page 20


Underlying trends in carbon emissions (2) •

The wider measure of regional emissions, including those associated with the generation of electricity consumed in the region (but not that from generation in the region for the grid), shows a clearer decline through to 2030. This is particularly the case for services and households.

By 2030, emissions attributable to household use of energy could be 20% below current levels, despite the population increasing by 6% and increases in general affluence feeding through into increased consumption.

Whilst the forecasts are relatively optimistic about reductions in carbon emissions to 2030 at the baseline rate of economic growth, this is based on a number of assumptions about the strong implementation of energy efficiency measures across business and households. There will inevitably be challenges in balancing economic growth/competitiveness and maintaining energy efficiency measures to meet environmental targets over the next twenty years.

Furthermore, if we assume the Northwest was on track to meet national targets up to 2007, the region will still need deliver a reduction of 38% on 2007 levels by 2030 to reach the target, and data suggests that at current baseline economic growth rates, the region will only reach a reduction of 26% by 2030. This raises questions around what might need to change in order for the region to reach these targets, above and beyond the assumptions for change that are already built into the forecasts.

As part of this analysis, we have tested how the region’s sectors might change to meet the target of a 38% reduction in emissions. For example, if the size of all sectors (in terms of economic output) was scaled back to meet the target, this would require a regional GVA growth rate of 1.7% pa through to 2030 (all other factors being equal), compared to the Panel’s long-term forecast of 2.2% pa. Conversely, if the region’s manufacturing sector was entirely replaced by the Financial & Business Services and Communications sectors, this would permit a regional GVA growth rate of 3.6% pa. Whilst these are simplistic scenarios, the analysis does illuminate the relationship between complex economic growth, sectoral make-up and emissions, and scale of change required to meet the carbon targets.

Figure 6 Projections of CO2 emissions from activity in the Northwest inc. consumption of electricity (Source: Cambridge Econometrics, using REEIO model developed through SCPnet8) 110 100

Index 2007=100

90 80 70 60 50 40 2007

2011 Manufacturing Transport

8

2015

2019 Services Total excl. powergen

2023

2027 Households

The Sustainable Consumption and Production Network.

Page 21


The environmental impacts of growth – The Panel’s assessment •

The Panel challenge the widely held view that climate change mitigation measures and carbon targets will simply constrain economic growth. Instead, the Panel see the carbon reduction agenda as a dynamic opportunity for business and the Northwest more widely, and are keen that it is perceived as such by policy-makers. This is not a zero sum game. Norway, for example, performs very well in terms of productivity whilst also having one of the best track records in terms of environmental compliance. The Panel views carbon reduction as a major branding opportunity and USP for the Northwest – the region could capitalise on its comparative advantage and lead the way in this area. There are also opportunities for the region around waste and re-use technologies, where the Northwest has the potential to lead other regions. A key question for the Panel that flows from this is ‘how does the Northwest attract more ‘green’ companies, both those which are already of substantial scale, but also smaller ones with significant growth potential?’

The Panel is of the view that environmental legislation is expected to be neutral to competitiveness, so should not differentially affect Northwest businesses, although the Panel is concerned about who pays for environmental compliance. Arguably, the cost should be passed through to the consumer to some extent, but the Panel fears the imposition of costs on businesses that cannot be passed through the chain, which will ultimately lead to cut backs elsewhere (which could potentially be in jobs). Whilst this is uncertain at present, the differential impact of environmental compliance on businesses is something the region should keep an eye on, particularly in terms of the differential affect it might have on the Northwest given its industrial structure and markets in which the region’s businesses operate.

The key to influencing business is to emphasise the cost-cutting advantages of improvements to efficiency as a ‘hook’, with reductions in carbon emissions a knock-on benefit from this. In this way, the ‘energy debate’ is reframed as an ‘efficiency debate’, with the aim of convincing businesses that improving energy consumption is ‘good for the business bottom line’, not just good behaviour. Many of the region’s most sophisticated businesses have already implemented efficiency measures as a way to reduce carbon emissions and costs at the same time, but this message still needs to be better articulated and promoted to the region’s wider business base.

The Panel believes that consumption is the core issue in the energy/climate change/carbon debate, and that this should be the focus for policy-makers (whilst at the same time recognising that different spatial areas cannot contribute uniformly to carbon targets). To date, strategies have tended to focus on emissions (which the Panel argues is effectively ‘the end of the pipe’ or an outcome of activity) and waste-to-energy activities, whereas they should be focusing on enabling mechanisms such as changing consumption patterns and recycling to reduce emissions and waste in the first place. The Panel is also of the view that public sector support also needs to help businesses invest in developing technologies to reduce carbon, not just off-setting it, and understand how to implement environmental policies and efficiency improvements.

The Panel also noted that a high proportion of emissions in the region come from households; the challenge in reducing these emissions is daunting, and will be a big issue for the public sector. Whilst Government projections expect households to be carbon-neutral by 2050, the Panel argued that information on how this might happen has not been effectively communicated to households as of yet. The task of influencing households at the regional level is even more difficult, given that regional partners have very little leverage or resource to implement interventions in this domain. Key to doing this effectively will be to educate and influence households, and get across the message that investment in efficiency improvements will cut costs to the individual.

Page 22


SECTION 4: THE PANEL’S CENTRAL LONG-TERM FORECAST TO 2030

Page 23


The Panel’s Central Long-Term Forecast •

At the Panel meeting on 28 January 2010, the Panel agreed that the Northwest will close the GVA growth gap to 0.2pp behind the UK in the medium-term (2009-15) but will continue to lag behind the UK by 0.3pp pa in the longer-term (2015-30). The long-term growth rate has now been revised up by the Panel to 2.2% pa (compared to a Panel forecast of 2.1% pa in January 2009). However, the Panel felt that, based on the evidence above and their experiences on the ground, it was realistic to assume that the growth gap would resume at 0.3pp behind the UK.

The Panel forecast is presented (pages 25–28), together with a set of potential risks associated with these. Following a similar approach to last year, the forecasts presented in this Section have been split into two time periods, to reflect recovery from the recession (2009-2015) and a return to longer-term growth trends (2015-2030).

As highlighted in the Introduction to this report, it is important to note that this long-term forecast developed by the Panel will provide a refreshed baseline or ‘business as usual’ forecast to feed into the Northwest’s Single Regional Strategy (RS2010). This task is part of – and now completes – the commitment made by the Panel in January 2009 in response to the NWDA’s request for the Panel to establish a single set of independent forecasts to 2030 (in line with the timeline for the RS2010). It also builds on the regional and sub-regional baseline forecasts the Panel agreed in January and June respectively, and all the work undertaken by the Panel to underpin these.

Page 24


Central Panel Forecast – Jobs & Productivity •

There remains little evidence to indicate that the Northwest economy’s poor underlying productivity performance relative to the UK will alter dramatically in the future. In the period to 2015, the Panel forecast expects that productivity growth will show an improvement on that over 2000-08, in part through the focus there will be on delivering public services efficiently. However, we still anticipate that productivity growth will lag the UK by 0.2pp in both the medium and long-term.

Whilst elements of the economic recovery are underway, its character and sequencing will have a significant impact on jobs in the region. Private sector jobs creation is likely to remain weak through 2010 with subsequent strengthening coinciding with cuts in public spending and employment. The outlook is for the level of employment in 2015 to be similar to that in 2009. Although there are signs that the world economies have emerged from recession, it is possible that further restructuring will occur in global production networks. The Northwest has a number of high profile companies within such networks and were a major manufacturer in the region to close, then the risk is that the impact on regional ‘critical mass’ could not be recovered thereby weakening further the medium-term employment prospects. The Panel has been concerned for some time about the impact of public spending cuts in the region. While few details are yet known, we expect public sector employment to fall through much of the period to 2015, and for the impact to be greater in the Northwest than for the UK as a whole. The Panel will continue to watch in detail developments in public spending.

The Panel’s view is that the Northwest population will rise at by around 0.2% pa to 2015 and the population of working age by slightly less. In the longer-term, the rate of growth in the population is likely to average a little higher, at 0.3% pa, about half the rate forecast for the UK.

The underlying rate of employment growth in the long-term is forecast at 0.4% pa, faster than the projected growth in working age population, but 0.2pp slower than for the UK as a whole. By 2030, employment is projected to be 6¼% higher than currently. The Panel expects past trends to continue, with financial and business services continuing to be the major source of new jobs (despite recent perturbations). Although public sector employment is expected to fall in the medium-term, the sector is still expected to remain an important source of employment into the longer-term.

Figure 7 Jobs growth in the Northwest and UK (Source: Panel Forecast, January 2010) 120

Index, 1990=100

115 110

UK

105

Northwest

100 95 90 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2015

2030

Page 25


Central Panel Forecast – GVA per head Figure 8 GVA per head in the Northwest and UK (Source: Panel Forecast, January 2010) 28

Figure 8 shows past and projected development in GVA per head measured in constant prices. On this measure, in 2008 GVA in the Northwest was 12% lower than in the UK.

In the period to 2015 the relative size of the gap is expected to close slightly initially, before increasing again as the economic recovery becomes established. Over the period as a whole, although GVA growth is expected to be weaker than for the UK, so is population growth.

In the longer-term, when the recovery is established we expect the gap in GVA per head to widen again, albeit at a modest rate of around 0.1% pa. As a result, by 2030 the gap is projected to have widened to just 12½% of UK GVA (in constant prices). The growth gap in GVA per head that is projected for the Northwest is similar to that in productivity.

26

(£000s, 2003 prices)

24 22

UK

20

Northwest

18 16 14 12 10 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2015

2030

Page 26


Key factors influencing growth •

Table 4 summarises the Panel’s Central Long-Term Forecast. The period to 2015 is expected to be characterised by a sustained period of weak performance as global growth continues to be held back and the UK economy is directly impacted by cuts in public spending. Over this period, the UK economy is expected to grow by 2% pa. Underlying fundamentals will be more important in determining growth in the longer-term, when we expect UK growth to average 2½% pa.

Over the same periods, the Panel expects the Northwest economy to grow by 1¾% pa and 2¼% pa. The underlying underperformance of the Northwest economy relative to the UK, which has been a feature of at least the last 35 years, will continue.

Table 4: Summary of Panel’s Central Long-Term Forecast (Source: Cambridge Econometrics) 2009–15

2015–30

Northwest (%)

UK (%)

NW differential with UK (pp pa)

Northwest (%)

UK (%)

NW differential with UK (pp pa)

Population

0.2

0.5

-0.3

0.3

0.6

-0.3

Working age population

0.1

0.5

-0.4

0.0

0.4

-0.4

Employment

0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.4

0.5

-0.2

Productivity (GVA per worker)

1.6

1.8

-0.1

1.8

2.0

-0.2

GVA

1.7

2.0

-0.2

2.2

2.5

-0.3

GVA per head

1.5

1.4

0.1

1.9

1.9

-0.1

Page 27


Risks to the long-term forecast •

While it appears that the major world economies have emerged from recession, it remains to be seen whether this is the first step on a sustained recovery or a ‘false dawn’. Either way, it is possible that the global production networks have yet to fully restructure in response. The Northwest has a number of high-profile companies within such networks within automotives, chemicals and defence. Were a major manufacturer in the region to close, then the risk is that the impact on regional ‘critical mass’ could not be recovered.

There is a risk that recovery will be slower than expected, and that shareholder expectations in the private sector will be higher than the recovery can deliver. Without sufficient underlying growth to feed these expectations, companies will be forced to either compete for market share, cut costs (which could well affect employment rates), or both. In forward-looking companies, this could be an innovation driver (to enable companies to take a greater market share), but those companies would need to be addressing this now, not later. Innovation is not only a cost, but it takes time, and there is a risk that if companies do not invest now, growth will be lower than the baseline suggests.

The state of the public finances will require severe cuts in public sector spending and investment in the medium-term. This has been reflected in the forecast, but there is considerable uncertainty about the scale of cuts that will be implemented and whether the scope of the public sector is reshaped in response. This matters because the public sector accounts for around a third of jobs in the Northwest. Merseyside is particularly dependent upon public sector employment, and therefore at risk, and parts of Lancashire and Cumbria are also vulnerable to cuts arising from a Defence Review.

There is also a large retail sector present in the region. Retail spend has increased of late, but the Panel raised concerns around whether this could be sustained, particularly if interest rates are increased and unemployment rises.

Striking a sustainable balance between economic growth and housing, wider infrastructures (such as electricity and water supply, waste management and transport) and legislative frameworks for carbon reduction will be demanding and complex. It is vital that the RS2010 provides a real lead on this seriously difficult issue.

On the upside, the Northwest is well placed to take advantage of opportunities in energy and green power, and with pro-policies could potentially build competitive advantage in this area.

Overall, the Panel agreed that the opportunities and threats discussed are considered as upside or downside risks for the time being given current levels of uncertainty around ‘steroids’ in the economy, lagging indicators and possible political change. This year the Panel is taking a cautious view, but may feel more confident in an upward revision in twelve months time.

Page 28


ANNEX A: SETTING THE SCENE – DETAILED ANALYSIS

Page 29


Population trends Figure 9 Working age population in the UK 1990-2008 (Source: ONS)

38,000

Since 1990, the region’s total population has increased marginally (average annual growth of 0.1% pa), compared to growth of 0.4% pa across the UK as a whole. This gives an annual growth gap of 0.3pp.

Between 1990 and 2008, the UK’s working age population (WAP) increased by 8.2%, as illustrated in Figure 9, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 0.4% pa. Over the same period, the region’s WAP grew much more slowly, at 2.5% (or 0.1% pa) as shown in Figure 10.

In the last few years, population growth in the region appears to have plateaued. Between 2007 and 2008 (the latest year for which data is available), the Northwest’s WAP has remained static, whereas the UK as a whole experienced growth of 0.5%.

The stock of young adults in the Northwest (i.e. those aged 20-34 years) has fallen by 15% since 1992, compared to a loss of 9% at the national level. Since the turn of the century, the rate of loss has slowed, but the region still experiences a greater (proportional) loss than the UK as a whole.

37,000 36,500 36,000 35,500 35,000 34,500 34,000 2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

33,500

Figure 10 Working age population in the Northwest 1990-2008 (Source: ONS) 4,300 4,250 4,200 4,150 4,100 4,050

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

4,000 1990

Working age population (000s)

In 2008, the Northwest was home to a total population of 6.9m, of which 4.2m were of working age.

37,500

1990

Working age population (000s)

38,500

Page 30


The role of migration and immigration Figure 11 Internal and international net migration to the Northwest (Source: ONS)

Whilst the outflow of internal migrants has stemmed slightly since 2007, the combination of net losses of internal migrants and declining numbers of international migrants coming into the region could have significant implications for the Northwest’s WAP going forward, especially given the region’s wider demographic profile.

According to ONS’ 2006-based projections, the Northwest will experience net in-migration of 13,400 people in 2016, a fall of 1.4% pa on projections for 2010. From 2016, net in-migration is expected to rise by 1.6% pa to 16,900 by 2031.

In the past, the Northwest has experienced a strong flow of foreign national workers to the region for employment, but latest data show this has slowed significantly. In 2008/09, just under 43,000 National Insurance Numbers (NiNos) were allocated in the Northwest (compared to 51,000 in 2007/08). This represents 6.3% of all NiNo allocations in the UK, down 1.1pp from a peak of 7.4% allocated to the region in 2005/06. The origin of NiNo applicants is also shifting away from a dominance from EU Accession States (in 2008/09, 39% of NiNos came from EU Accession States, compared to 51% in the previous year) towards those from Asia and the Middle East (31% of NiNos in 2008/09).

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Internal migration

2002 2003 2004

International migration

2005 2006 2007 2008 -15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

People (000s)

Estimates of total net immigration into the Northwest between 2000 and 2008 were revised down officially last year to 52,600 people in total. The latest figures for net migration show that the Northwest lost 2,900 people overall in 2008.

International migration continues to dominate inflows of population into the Northwest, although since peaking in 2002 at 17,000 people, international migration has gradually fallen to 4,000 people in 2008.

Following positive inflows of internal migrants into the region in the early part of this decade through to 2004, the Northwest now experiences a net loss of internal UK migrants each year. This trend continues to worsen – the latest data show an outflow of 6,900 people in 2008, with large outflows attracted from the Northwest to the South West and South East.

Page 31


Jobs Figure 12 Number of jobs9 in the Northwest and the UK (Source: Cambridge Econometrics)

However, since 2004, this trend has come to an end, with the growth in jobs in the Northwest (at 0.2% pa) falling behind both the UK (0.8% pa) and regional comparators (0.3% pa in Yorkshire and Humber, and 0.5% pa in the West Midlands) between 2004 and 2008. In total, jobs in the Northwest have increased by 32,800 since 2004, giving a total number of 3.4m jobs by 2008.

The latest data show that 7.1% of the region’s WAP were unemployed between April 2008 and March 2009, which was 0.7pp above the national average, but below Yorkshire and Humber (at 7.3%) and the West Midlands (7.8%).

Furthermore, whilst unemployment in the region has grown more quickly than the UK since 2004/05 (2.3pp vs. 1.6pp respectively), the Northwest has not experienced the scale of rise as that seen in Yorkshire and Humber (up 2.9pp) and the West Midlands (up 2.6pp).

Number of jobs, 1990=100

110.0

105.0 UK 100.0

Northwest

95.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

90.0

Between 1994 and 2008, the number of jobs in the Northwest increased by 0.9% pa, compared to 1.1% pa across the UK. Even though job growth in the region lags behind the UK (by 0.2pp pa), the Northwest has performed better than the West Midlands (0.7% pa) and Yorkshire and Humber (0.8% pa) over the same time period.

In the early part of this decade (2001-2004), job growth in the Northwest (at an average of 1.4% pa) outpaced the UK (0.8% pa) and the West Midlands (0.7% pa). The Northwest created an additional 137,100 jobs over this time period.

9

Count of the total number of jobs (full time and part time jobs).

Page 32


Projections for population and jobs Figure 13 Working age population in the Northwest and UK (Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, ONS 2006-based sub-national population projections)10

125.0

Figure 13 shows ONS’ current projections for population in the Northwest and the UK, indexed to 1990 levels.

Over the next twenty years, ONS expect the Northwest’s population to grow (at an average of 0.2% pa) more slowly than the UK (0.6% pa), and comparator regions (0.7% pa in Yorkshire and Humber, and 0.4% pa in the West Midlands). Since last year‘s Panel Long-Term Forecast report, ONS’ long-term projections for the Northwest’s population in 2030 have been revised downwards (by -5.4%, compared to a downward revision of -2.0% for the UK).

Correspondingly, the growth in WAP between 2009 and 2030 in the Northwest is projected to grow more slowly (at 0.1% pa) than the UK (0.5% pa), Yorkshire and Humber (0.5% pa) and the West Midlands (0.2% pa).

Forecasts for employment growth published by Cambridge Econometrics are given in Figure 14. These data expect job growth of 0.2% pa in the Northwest through to 2030, half the rate of growth expected across the UK as a whole (0.4% pa), but broadly in line with forecasts for the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber.

The strongest job growth in the region is expected to occur in other business services (1.1% pa), other services (0.9% pa) and banking and finance (0.8% pa); similar trends are also forecast for the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber.

120.0

1990=100

115.0 110.0

UK

105.0

Northwest

100.0 95.0 90.0 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2015

2030

Employment as a % of total

Figure 14 Indexed employment growth in the Northwest and UK by sector (index 100=1990) (Source: Cambridge Econometrics) 160.0

Manufacturing - UK

140.0

Manufacturing - Northwest

120.0

Dist. hotel and cater - UK

100.0 80.0

Dist. hotel and cater - Northwest

60.0

Other Services - UK

40.0

Other Services - Northwest

20.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2015 2030

2008-based ONS projections are available at the national level but not at a sub-national level. We have therefore used 2006-based data (latest sub-national projections) here for comparability purposes.

10

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Labour Market Developments Figure 15 Employment rates – the proportion of those of working age in employment (Source: LFS/APS)

The region’s working age males have been hit harder during the recession than their national counterparts. In 2008/09, the male employment rate was 73.8%, with the gap against the national average increasing from -3.2pp in 2007/08 to -3.9pp in 2008/09. If this trend continues, issues around disillusioned and disengaged male workers in the region could re-present.

By contrast, the employment rate for women has remained stable at 68.2% in 2008/09 (1.6pp below the national average), suggesting the re-engagement of women into the workforce, which was a key factor underpinning economic growth in the earlier part of the decade, has come to an end.

In 2008/09, the economic inactivity rate in the Northwest, at 23.5%, remained 2.4pp above the national average. That said, since 1999/00, reductions in the region’s economically inactive (of -0.7pp) over the period have outpaced the national average (-0.4pp).

Since 2000, the Northwest has reduced the number of benefit claimants at a faster rate than the national average (-8.4% and -4.1%, respectively). However, the region has seen a sharp rise in benefit claimants since last year’s Long-Term Forecast Report and, in May 2009, over 800,000 people were claiming benefits in the Northwest. Whilst this proportion of the region’s WAP claiming benefits (19.2% compared to 15.7% in the UK in May 2009) is not dissimilar to 2000 figures (19.4% and 15.2% respectively), a larger proportion of claimants in the region now claim Job Seekers Allowance and ‘other benefits’ (which includes carer and disability living allowances).

Employment rate of WAP

75.0 Great Britain

74.0 73.0

Northwest

72.0 71.0 70.0 69.0

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

1999-00

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97

680

The Northwest’s employment rate continues to lag behind the national average. Despite closing the gap between the region and Great Britain from 3.4pp in 2000/01 to 1.5pp in 2003/04, the gap has now re-opened to 2.8pp in 2008/09.

Since the Panel’s last Long-Term Forecast Report, the region’s employment rate has fallen from 72.3% (2007/08) to 71.1% (2008/09). The region has suffered more than the national average, with the Northwest experiencing a fall of 1.2pp in the employment over one year, compared to -0.6pp across Great Britain.

Most recent data show part-time jobs accounted for 30.9% of jobs in the Northwest in 2008, in line with the national average. This has not changed significantly over the last ten years – in 1998, 30.1% of the region’s jobs were part-time.

Page 34


Productivity & trends by broad sector Figure 16 GVA per job in the Northwest and UK (Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2003 prices)

Productivity in the region, measured by GVA per workplace job, was £32,400 in 2008, compared to £35,500 across the UK. Since 1998, Northwest productivity has increased by 1.3% pa, compared to 1.7% pa in UK, equivalent to a gap of 0.4pp pa. The gap in productivity has widened steadily since the late 1990s, although from 2007 to 2008 it did narrow marginally.

This growth rate of 1.3% pa for the Northwest since 1998 (a gap of 0.4pp pa with the UK) compares to last year’s Panel Long-Term Forecast of 1.8% pa for the Northwest over the longer-term, just 0.2pp pa slower than the UK.

The structural shift in employment away from manufacturing (which has traditionally comprised higher productivity jobs) towards services (where productivity tends to be lower) is a key factor in damping down the Northwest’s productivity performance. That being said, the region’s manufacturing sector still accounts for a slightly larger share of employment in the region compared to the UK average (12% and 10%, respectively, in 2008) and outperforms the UK in terms of productivity (£49,500 per job, compared to £47,700 for the UK), largely due to high productivity in the region’s chemicals (£103,900), manufactured fuels (£80,600) and motor vehicles (£64,200) sub-sectors.

The public sector and ‘other services’ now account for 58% of jobs in the Northwest. As we have seen in previous Panel reports, productivity in the region’s services is notably lower than the UK average (£22,100 per job in the public sector and £31,400 in other services in 2008, which were 11.5% and 15.9% lower than their UK averages respectively in 2008). In addition to this, we have continued to see a widening of the productivity gap relative to the UK across all service sectors over the last 10 years.

£000s (2003 prices)

37.0 35.0 33.0

UK

31.0 Northwest

29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

21.0

Figure 17 Employment as a % of total by main industry grouping for the Northwest and UK, 1990-2008 (Source: Cambridge Econometrics) Manufacturing - UK

5% 30.0%

Manufacturing - Northwest

4% 25.0% 3%

Dist. hotel and cater - UK UK Dist. hotel and

20.0% 2%

cater - Northwest North Public Services - UK West Public Services - Northwest

1% 15.0% 0% 10.0% -1% 5.0% -2%

Other Services - UK Other Services - Northwest

1990 1991 1990 1992 1991 1993 1992 1994 1993 1995 1994 1996 1995 1997 1996 1998 1997 1999 1998 2000 1999 2001 2000 2002 2001 2003 2002 2004 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008

Employment as a in %GVA of total Percentage growth

35.0%

Page 35


Productivity drivers – Enterprise Figure 18 Business starts per 10,000 of working age population (Source: ONS) 80.0

Since last year’s Panel Long-Term Forecast Report, there has been a change in the approach to the measurement of business starts, which are now measured on a PAYE-basis and so now includes businesses below the VAT threshold (of £64,000 pa).

The latest data show that enterprise rates in the Northwest (at 65.2 per 10,000 WAP) lagged behind the UK in 2008, but the region has consistently performed better than both the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber since 2004.

Between 2004 and 2008, the Northwest saw a 5.2% fall in enterprise rates, compared to a national average of -6.0%. Yorkshire and Humber has faired much worse (-11.5%), but the West Midlands has experienced a 9.0% increase.

The 2007 data show that marginally more businesses were likely to have survived after one year of operation in the Northwest (95.6%), compared to the national average (95.5%) and both comparator regions (95.2% in the West Midlands and 94.5% in Yorkshire and Humber). Furthermore, the Northwest has made progress in improving survival rates – between 2003 and 2007, survival rates increased by 3.2pp compared to only 2.8pp in the UK. Three-year survival rates follow a similar pattern: in 2005 (latest data), 64.8% of the Northwest’s firms were still in operation after three years, compared to 64.7% for the UK (64.6% in the West Midlands; 62.5% in Yorkshire and Humber).

Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) is a measure of the proportion of adults engaged in entrepreneurial activity (which includes both nascent entrepreneurs and new-firm entrepreneurs). Under this measure, the Northwest performed worse (at 5.4% in 2007) than the England average (5.7%) and the West Midlands (6.3%), but was on a par with Yorkshire and Humber. That said, the Northwest and Yorkshire and Humber have seen the greatest improvement in TEA since 2003 (of 0.7pp and 1.1pp, respectively).

Births per 10,000 WAP

70.0 60.0

2004

50.0

2006

40.0

2008

30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

UK

Northwest

West Midlands

Yorkshire & Humber

Figure 19 One-year survival rates (Source: ONS)

% of enterprise births

97.0

96.0

UK Northwest

95.0

West Midlands

94.0

Yorkshire & Humber

93.0 92.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Page 36


Productivity drivers – Skills 1 Figure 20 Highest qualification attained (Source: LFS/APS)

In the Panel’s previous Long-Term Forecast Report, it noted that the rate of improvement in Level 4+ qualifications in the Northwest matched the national average over the long-term. Latest data suggest this is now no longer the case. Between 1999 and 2008, the proportion of the WAP with Level 4+ qualifications increased by 6.0pp in the Northwest and 6.3pp across England and Wales, resulting in a widening gap in performance.

By 2008, 25.6% of the region’s WAP were qualified to Level 4+ compared to a national average of 28.6%. The comparator regions performed worse than the Northwest, with 24.5% and 25.0% of the WAP qualified to Level 4+ in the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber respectively.

The region continues to make improvements in the proportion of the WAP with no qualifications – this fell by 4.4pp between 1999 and 2008 (0.1pp faster than the national average) to 14.7% of the WAP in 2008 (12.4% in England and Wales). The region now outperforms the West Midlands (where 16.0% of the WAP has no qualifications), but lags behind Yorkshire and Humber (where 13.4% of the WAP fall into this category).

Employees in the Northwest are still more likely to engage in training (14.1% undertook job-related training in 2008) than the national average (13.8%) and their counterparts in the West Midlands (13.0%) and Yorkshire and Humber (13.4%). Since 1999, the proportion of employees participating in training has increased by 0.9pp (the converse is true for all comparators, which have experienced a decline).

Highest qualification of working age population

30.0 25.0

No Quals

20.0

NVQ1

15.0

NVQ2

10.0 NVQ3 5.0 NVQ4+

0.0 Mar 1999 Feb 2000

Jan 2008 Dec 2008

Northwest

Mar 1999 Feb 2000

Jan 2008 Dec 2008

England & Wales

Figure 21 Proportion of employees receiving job related training in the last 4 weeks (Source: LFS/APS) 15.5

Proportion of employees receiving job related training

15.0 14.5 14.0

1999

13.5

2008

13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5

Great Britain

Northwest

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

Page 37


Productivity drivers – Skills 2 Figure 22 Occupations by occupational category in 2008-09 (% of total jobs) (Source: APS)

As Figure 22 shows, there are notable differences in the occupational structures across the regions. When comparing the Northwest to England, it is evident that the region has a higher proportion of jobs in lower-level occupations and a lower proportion in high-level occupations. This differential becomes even more pronounced when comparing the region to the Wider South East. The Northwest’s occupational structure is broadly similar to that of both the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber.

Furthermore, as Figure 23 amplifies, those engaged in high-level occupations in the Northwest earn comparatively less than their counterparts in England, the West Midlands and Wider South East. However, earnings in high-level occupations marginally exceeded those in Yorkshire and Humber.

As SQW’s and CE’s separate work in 2006 on reviewing the productivity of the region’s sector shows, occupation levels and earnings are key factors in the lower productivity of the Northwest’s service sector industries.

England High Level

Northwest West Midlands

Medium Level

Yorkshire & Humber Wider South East

Low Level

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Proportion of total jobs

Figure 23 Relative earnings by occupational category in 2008-09 England =100% (Source: ASHE) England High Level

Northwest West Midlands

Medium Level

Yorkshire & Humber Wider South East

Low Level

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Page 38


Productivity drivers – Investment Figure 24 Manufacturing & services investment (by UK-owned firms) as a percentage of GVA (Source: ABI & ONS)

6.0 5.0

Investment in manufacturing represented 1.0% of GVA in the Northwest, compared to 0.6% in the UK (and 0.7% in Yorkshire and Humber, and 0.8% in the West Midlands)

UK

4.0 3.0

Northwest

2.0

Investment in services accounted for 5.2% of GVA in the Northwest, compared to 4.4% in the UK and Yorkshire and Humber, and 4.5% in the West Midlands.

1.0

Manufacturing

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

2006

2004

2002

2000

0.0 1998

Investment by UK businesses as a % of regional GVA

7.0

Furthermore, as the region’s advantage in manufacturing investment relative to the UK shrinks (from +1.2pp in 1998 to +0.4pp in 2006), the positive gap in investment in services compared to the UK has grown (from +0.4pp in 1998 to +0.8pp in 2006).

In 2007, average net capital expenditure per business in the Northwest (at £42,600) was 1.8% below the national average (£43,400), but the region performed better than both the West Midlands (£40,500) and Yorkshire and Humber (£41,800).

As noted at the Panel’s Autumn 2009 Short-Term Forecast Panel meeting in October 2009, the Northwest is significantly dependent upon the public sector, especially in areas such as Merseyside and Blackpool. Forthcoming public sector austerity may significantly challenge the Northwest’s ability to maintain an advantage in the investment productivity driver.

Services

Figure 25 Average net capital investment per business11 (Source: ABI & ONS) net capital expenditure per business

Investment (as measured by net capital expenditure) by UK-owned firms as a proportion of GVA in the Northwest continues to exceed the UK average and comparator regions for both manufacturing and services. For example, latest data for 2006 show:

45,000 Great Britain Northwest

40,000

West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

35,000

30,000 2004

2005

2006

2007

Please note, this data uses ONS’ new ‘active business’ data, which defines an active business as one that had either turnover or employment during the reference period, and is therefore not comparable with data presented in last years Panel report.

11

Page 39


Productivity drivers – Innovation

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as a % of total GVA

Figure 26 Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, as a proportion of total GVA12 (Source: ONS)

Expenditure on R&D (as a proportion of GVA) has been consistently strong in the Northwest, with latest data further supporting this trend. In 2007, expenditure on R&D was considerably higher in the Northwest (2.3%) than both comparator regions (1.1% and 1.4% of GVA in Yorkshire and Humber and the West Midlands respectively) and the UK average (2.0%).

The Northwest’s performance is undoubtedly boosted in part by the presence of advanced manufacturing, aerospace and pharmaceuticals agglomerates in the region. As shown in Figure 27, R&D expenditure by manufacturing firms represented 9.6% of sectoral GVA in 2007, 1.9pp above the UK average. The region also performs considerably better than the West Midlands (where R&D expenditure accounts for only 4.6% of sectoral GVA), and Yorkshire and Humber (at 2.4%).

Access to finance is also used by the OECD as an indicator of innovation given the importance of finance for firms that have a proven idea but are seeking to grow. In 2007, the Northwest secured 6% of UK venture capital, compared to 3% in the West Midlands and 12% in Yorkshire and Humber (whereas London and the South East received 60%). However, the OECD suggests that in the North, the problem is not a lack of supply of venture capital but the lack of ‘investment-ready’ firms to fund.

The OECD also found that firms in the Northwest were most likely to source information for innovation from their suppliers (86%) and clients/customers (84%) in 2006, but are less likely to source information from their competitors (74%) than firms in the South East (80%), which is perhaps an indication of a lesser critical mass of competitor firms in the region.

2.5 2.0

1999 2003 2007

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

UK

Northwest

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

10.0 UK 8.0

Northwest

6.0

West Midlands

4.0 Yorkshire & Humber

2.0

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0.0 1999

R&D expenditure by manufacturing % of ssectoral GVA

Figure 27 R&D expenditure by manufacturing, as a proportion of sectoral GVA (Source: ONS)

Please note, expenditure on R&D by Financial Intermediation services has now been reallocated to the industries that consume it and therefore data presented in this report is not comparable with previous editions of the long-term forecast.

12

Page 40


Spatial aspects of growth •

ONS published new data on GVA at the NUTS13 3 level in December 2009, which shows that Greater Manchester continues to generate the largest share of regional GVA (40%) and achieves the second highest GVA per head (£18,000) behind Cheshire (£21,200). Lancashire, Cheshire and Merseyside account for similar shares of regional GVA (19%, 18% and 16% respectively), with Cumbria contributing only 6% of the total. These shares have remained fairly constant over the last ten years. GVA per head is also relatively low in Lancashire (£15,500), Merseyside (£14,200) and Cumbria (£14,800). As illustrated in Figure 28, over the last ten years, the Greater Manchester subregion has seen the fastest growth in GVA (of 2.4% pa. Growth in Merseyside (2.2% pa) exceeded the Northwest (2.1% pa) slightly, and growth in Cheshire (2.1% pa) match the regional average; whereas growth in Lancashire (1.8% pa) and Cumbria (1.2% pa) both fell behind. The map also highlights the long-term baseline forecasts agreed for each subregion by the Panel in June 2009. Compared to historical trends, Cumbria is expected to see a 0.4pp uplift in GVA growth over the 2015-30 period, and Greater Manchester will see a slight slowing of GVA growth rates (by 0.2pp). Growth in the other sub-regions is not expected to change significantly. Whilst it is important to remember that these sub-regional forecasts were not calibrated at the regional level to account for displacement and synergies between the sub-regions, they do nonetheless provide an indicative feel for the potential spatial distribution of growth across the region through to 2030.

Figure 28: GVA change pa (1997-2007) and baseline GVA growth rate forecasts

Baseline Forecast 1.0% pa 2008-15 1.6% pa 2015-30

Cumbria (NUTS2)

Baseline Forecast 1.1% pa 2008-15 1.9% pa 2015-30

Key Percentage growth in GVA per annum 1997 to 2007

Lancashire (NUTS2)

1.2% pa 1.8% pa 2.1% pa 2.2% pa 2.4% pa Greater Manchester (NUTS2)

Baseline Forecast 1.3% pa 2008-15

Merseyside (NUTS2)

2.1% pa 2015-30

Baseline Forecast

Baseline Forecast 1.6% pa 2008-15 2.2% pa 2015-30

Cheshire & Warrington (NUTS2)

1.6% pa 2008-15 2.1% pa 2015-30

13

Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics.

Produced by SQW Consulting 2009 © Ordnance Survey. Crown Copyright. License number 100019086 Digital Map Data © Collins Bartholemew Ltd (2006). Data Source: ONS

Page 41


Page 42


ANNEX B: FORECASTING EVIDENCE

Page 43


Forecasting Evidence – An Overview •

• •

The following pages compare forecasts from Cambridge Econometrics (CE), Experian and Oxford Economics (Oxford) for the Northwest and UK in terms of population (and WAP), jobs, productivity and GVA, split for the two periods 20092015 and 2015-2030. These forecasts were presented to the Panel as part of the updated evidence base at its meeting in January 2010 to help inform the Panel’s decision on its Central Long-Term Forecast.

Table 5 Forecasting evidence overview (Source: range in forecasts from three forecasting houses) NW differential with UK 2009–2015

2015–2030

Population

-0.2pp to -0.3pp

-0.1pp to -0.3pp

The range of differentials in growth rates between the Northwest and UK are summarised in Table 5 for each indicator.

Working age population

-0.2pp to -0.4pp

-0.1pp to -0.3pp

Employment

0.0pp to -0.2pp

-0.2pp (no range)

It should be noted that the vintage of forecasts presented in Table 5 by the forecasting houses varies from July 2009 (CE), November 2009 (Experian), and December 2009 (Oxford).

Productivity (GVA per workforce)

-0.1pp to -0.2pp

0.0pp to -0.1pp

GVA

-0.2pp to -0.3pp

-0.2pp to -0.3pp

Page 44


Forecasting Evidence – Population Figure 29 Population projections 2009-2015

Figure 31 Working age population projections 2009-2015

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7 0.6

0.5

UK

0.4 Northwest

0.3

UK

0.5

%pa

%pa

0.6

0.4

Northwest

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1 0.0

0.0 CE

Experian

Oxford

CE

Figure 30 Population projections 2015-2030

Experian

Oxford

Figure 32 Working age population projections 2015-2030

0.8 0.7

UK

0.5 0.4

Northwest

0.3

UK

%pa

%pa

0.6

Northwest

0.2 0.1 0.0 CE

Experian

Oxford

CE

Experian

Oxford

All three forecasting houses are expecting the Northwest’s population to grow more slowly than the UK. The differential varies from -0.2pp (Experian and Oxford) to -0.3pp (CE) for the 2009-15 period, and from -0.1pp (Experian) to -0.3pp (CE) for the 2015-30 period. In terms of absolute levels, Experian is the most optimistic about Northwest and UK population growth (and in the long-term forecasts that ONS projections will be exceeded) compared to CE and Oxford.

All three forecasting houses are projecting a similar rate of growth in the Northwest’s working age population (WAP) and, again, growth in the region is expected to lag behind the UK. However, views on the UK vary, resulting in the differential gap ranging from 0.2pp (Experian) to -0.4pp (CE) for the 2009-15 period, and from -0.1pp (Experian) to -0.3pp (CE) for 2015-30.

Page 45


Forecasting Evidence – Jobs & Productivity Figure 33 Jobs projections 2009-2015

Figure 35 Productivity projections 2009-2015

0.6

3.0

0.5

2.5 UK

0.3

2.0

%pa

%pa

0.4

1.5 Northwest

Northwest

0.2

UK

1.0

0.1

0.5

0.0 -0.1

CE

Experian

0.0

Oxford

CE

Figure 34 Jobs projections 2015-2030

Oxford

Figure 36 Productivity projections 2015-2030 3.0

0.5

2.5 UK

0.3

Northwest

%pa

0.6

0.4

%pa

Experian

2.0

UK

1.5

0.2

1.0

0.1

0.5

Northwest

0.0

0.0 CE

Experian

Oxford

CE

Experian

Oxford

For the period 2009-15, CE expects lower growth in jobs (this is because CE’s forecasts were produced in July 2009, and most forecasts have been revised up since), whereas Experian’s and Oxford’s projections are very similar at 0.2% pa for the Northwest and 0.4% pa for the UK. As a result, the differential for the 2009-15 period ranges from -0.2pp (Experian and Oxford) to 0.0pp (CE). Over the longer-term (2015-30), all three forecasting houses expect the differential to be -0.2pp.

The Northwest’s productivity growth is below the UK in all three forecasts. Over the 2009-15 period, Oxford is the most optimistic (2.3% pa for the region) and Experian the most pessimistic (1.5% pa for the region), but in the longer-term (2015-30) CE and Experian forecast growth of 2.1% pa for the Northwest, while Oxford forecast 1.6% pa for the region. This gives a differential of between -0.1pp (Experian and Oxford) and -0.2pp (CE) for the 2009-15 period and a gap of between 0.0pp (Experian) and -0.1pp (CE and Oxford) for the longer-term.

Page 46


Forecasting Evidence – GVA Figure 37 GVA projections 2009-2015 3.0

As a result of higher forecast for productivity over the 2009-15 period, Oxford are expecting to see a much higher level of GVA growth (2.5% pa in the Northwest and 2.8% pa in the UK). CE and Experian are less optimistic (due to lower forecasts for productivity), and project that GVA growth will be 1.7-1.8% pa in the Northwest and 2.0% pa in the UK over the same time period.

Despite notable variation in absolute levels, the differential in GVA growth ranges from -0.2pp (CE and Oxford) to -0.3pp (Experian) for the 2009-15 period.

Over the 2015-30 period, CE and Experian forecast growth of 2.4-2.6% pa in the Northwest and 2.7-2.8% pa in the UK, while Oxford is much more pessimistic (reflecting their lower productivity forecasts for this period), forecasting 1.9% pa for the Northwest and 2.3% pa for the UK.

This gives a differential of between -0.2pp and -0.3pp for the 2015-30 period, matching the gap forecast in GVA for 2009-15 above.

2.5

%pa

2.0

UK

1.5 Northwest 1.0 0.5 0.0 CE

Experian

Oxford

Figure 38 GVA projections 2015-2030

%pa

UK Northwest

CE

Experian

Oxford

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/Long_Term_Report_-_March_2010