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NORTHWEST DEVELOPMENT AGENCY

LAKE DISTRICT: ECONOMIC FUTURES STUDY

A Final Stage 1 Report

June 2004

Regeneris Consulting 1-5 The Downs Altrincham WA14 2QD Tel: 0161 926 9214 Fax: 0161 926 8545 Web: www.regeneris.co.uk in association with

Land Use Consultants and Transport for Leisure


Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary

CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

I

1.

INTRODUCTION

1

2.

WHAT IS THE LAKE DISTRICT?

2

3.

THE LAKE DISTRICT AS A PLACE TO VISIT AND STAY

10

4.

GETTING TO AND TRAVELLING AROUND THE LAKE DISTRICT

29

5.

THE LAKE DISTRICT’S ENVIRONMENT AND LAND BASED ECONOMY

43

6.

THE LAKE DISTRICT AS A PLACE TO LIVE

56

7.

THE LAKE DISTRICT AS A PLACE TO WORK AND OPERATE A BUSINESS 70

8.

EXPERIENCE OF OTHER NATIONAL PARKS

88

9.

SCENARIOS FOR CHANGE AND IMPLICATIONS

98

APPENDIX A

DATA TABLES

1

APPENDIX B

CASE STUDIES OF OTHER NATIONAL PARKS

7

APPENDIX C DALES MILLENIUM TRUST, ZONING IN THE PEAK DISTRICT AND RURAL ENTERPRISE SUPPORT IN NORTHUMBRIA NATIONAL PARK 23 APPENDIX D

NOTES OF WORKSHOP MEETINGS (MARCH 2004)

29


Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary

Executive Summary and Conclusions i.

This Stage 1 report has been produced to summarise some of the key facts and trends surrounding the economy and economic role of the Lake District (both the National Park and surrounding areas). We summarise the main points below. It is worth noting that the analysis has tended to focus on the current picture and less on longer term trends – simply because longer-term, consistent data series are hard to establish. Even from the 1991 and 2001 Census it is not possible, at this stage, to establish definitive trends even in basic facts such as total population.

How Robust is the Economy of the Lake District? ii.

In terms of headline indicators the economy of the Lake District appears robust (in common with many other attractive rural areas). Unemployment rates are consistently low, there has been a positive record on employment creation (in contrast with many other areas of Cumbria recently), with net creation of 4,000 employee jobs since 1991. The overall skills and qualification levels of most of the resident workforce are high. Rates of new business formation are above average.

iii.

However, we must be wary of entirely focussing on averages and aggregates. The economy of the Lake District is far from diverse and indeed relies extremely heavily on tourism in all its various guises – driven by the landscape value of the area, the historic towns and wide profile (particularly in the UK). Although tourism consists of different markets and types of activities, nevertheless something approaching 50% or more of all economic activity in the National Park area is directly or indirectly linked to tourism, and this is even higher in some locations in the centre and south of the Lake District. Agriculture remains a significant source of employment (8%) as well, although much less important source of income.

iv.

In part because of the sectoral make up, the wage rates offered by employers (and earnings levels of those self-employed) are relatively poor and low compared to house prices. The low wage rates on offer for those working in the Lake District remain the Achilles Heel of the area’s economy. The typical rural issues of two tier economies and housing affordability are therefore writ large in the area.

What role does the Lake District play at present in economic terms? v.

The Lake District National Park area is relatively small in economic terms; there are around 21,000 residents in work and 21,000 employees working there. However, the surrounding towns of Kendal, Penrith, Cockermouth and Ulverston have, collectively, larger populations and economic bases. There are significant commuting flows into and out of the areas, although we are unable to quantify these. Our analysis of the data suggests an unbalanced flow: •

Those in the more highly paid public service and managerial/professional jobs (including those working at Sellafield and other major manufacturing employers) tend to live in the National Park and commute out.

Those in lower paid jobs in the tourism sector and supporting services either live and work in the towns or commute into the area. Given the timing of most of the public transport services most commuting has to be done by car.

vi.

So two core roles played by the Lake District are: •

Role 1. A high quality residential location for managerial and professional workers for firms located elsewhere in Cumbria (which certainly is one of the marketing offerings used to promote new investment into the County).

A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary •

Role 2. An actual (and potential) source of employment for residents in surrounding towns and villages (as well of course residents of the area itself). However, a key issue here is the ability to access employment from outside the National Park given relatively low wages on offer and relatively poor public transport.

vii.

It is evident that self employment rates and working from home (c.23%-25%) is far more important in the Lake District than surrounding areas. In large part this is driven by two of the key employment sectors (agriculture and tourism). However, in a small part it is likely to be due to a deliberate decision to work from home and move into/stay in the area. Some of these businesses may be low aspirational lifestyle businesses1, others are more dynamic and higher value added (e.g. outdoors pursuits based businesses, ICT service businesses, creative businesses). The hard data on this phenomenon is difficult to establish, but suggests it is still relatively small in the overall scheme of things. It is clear that the area can and does play a further role which is: •

Role 3: as a location for knowledge based, creative and outdoor based business startups2.

viii.

Although we have been unable to carry out a detailed analysis of the sectors it is important to note that the Lake District has a relatively high proportion of training, education, management development and outdoor (often related) centres and businesses3. These activities and resource provide a fourth role which is: •

Role 4. As a centre of learning, training and development (for management and all ages and classes)

ix.

It is undoubtedly the case that the Lake District is one of the premier tourism brands in the UK and indeed arguably is the highest profile outdoor brand. The rest of Cumbria and indeed potentially the North West (and other parts of northern England) can and do benefit from the profile accorded to this brand. However, at present this role in relation to overseas tourists appears underdeveloped. •

Role 5: A national and international brand to attract visitors to Cumbria and the region. Clearly, the actual visitor experience in travelling to and staying in the Lake District must match this image.

What are the key trends facing the Lake District? x.

The report identifies a whole host of trends impacting on the area. We believe the most important ones are as follows: •

The enduring and increasing popularity of the area is a location for in-migrants, especially retirees but also those in employment moving in for lifestyle reasons. The area has proven particularly attractive to those aged 45-64 – the more energetic early retirees and those seeking a change of lifestyle.

The increasing aging nature of the population and fall in numbers of young people living there. In part this has been and will be driven by national demographic trends which will be pronounced over the next couple of decades, in part it is driven by migration

1

For instance the many B&B businesses which choose to operate below the VAT threshold

2

ABI data for 2002 suggests taking a very broad definition of knowledge based employment, that up to 9% of employees might fall into this category.

3

As a minimum these account for 3% to 5% of all employees in 2002

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary patterns within the UK to areas such as the Lake District. It is quite conceivable, indeed likely that well over a third of the area’s population will be over 60 by 2020. •

The growing affordable housing issue driven by the demand for retirement, second homes and holiday lets. Current trends are likely to lead to a further exaggeration of the in/out commuting flows.

The pressure from higher house prices for the scarce resource (a dwelling inside or close to the National Park), creating development pressure on existing commercial uses of properties (tourism, agricultural or other).

The likely future contraction of income and GVA created by the agricultural sector and need for farmers to continue to diversify on and as importantly off farm.

Potential reduction in stocking densities and abandonment of some upland areas from grazing and implications for the landscape.

A potential threat to the landscape are the proposals for significant wind farms in areas around the National Park, however the evidence is divided as to how far these would act as a deterrent or adversely impact on visitor enjoyment.

The vulnerability and sluggishness of the west and south Cumbria economies as major employers continue to contract (which are currently an important source of employment and so income for those living in the south west/west of the Lake District.

The longer term increased difficulties of accessing the Lakes by car (due to cost issues and more importantly congestion), especially for those travelling from south of the M62 – although these account for around a third of domestic visitors and around a third of visitor spend. Travel difficulties by road will particularly affect those coming from London and the South East (around 13% of all spend). Better access by rail will only partly offset this trend.

Although the WCML upgrade will deliver important improvements to longer distance rail services, the future for regional and local rail services is less clear.

The increased competition from other destination for the core markets for the Lakes (short break, outdoor focused holidays).

On a more positive side, broadband access is likely to be near universal over the next 5 years albeit at a relatively slow rate. However, in ICT terms most towns and villages in the Lake District will have reasonable access to low level broad band suitable for most business use, although the areas will always lack behind denser populated urban areas in access to larger bandwidth.

How does this differ by area? xi.

The trends above are Lake District wide, but there will be difference by areas: •

The south/east most accessible quadrant as well as the A66 corridor toward Keswick is likely to see continual visitor pressure and the most intense affordable housing concerns. This is also the area where the retirement effect is greatest.

The western Lakes have less residential and visitor pressure, indeed likely job losses at BNFL/BAE Systems will, if anything, weaken demand. The future problems with accessibility may further disadvantage this part of the Lakes and efforts to disperse visitors to this area.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary What are the future possible growth and development paths? xii.

We have developed a series of scenarios for debate and to help thinking about the future over the next 15 years. These are summarised below. Name of 15-year scenario

Description

Judgement on Likelihood

“Eastbourne by the Lakes”

Continued changes in residential patterns and inmigration. Higher and higher proportion of dwellings, especially in the LDNP but also immediate surrounding areas, occupied by retirees and some second home owners. Key focus is on main towns and so pressure there. Potential conflict with tourism sector. Pressure on public services. Reduction in family and young people orientated services (e.g. declining school rolls). Servicing the elderly could be seen as a business opportunity.

High

“Digital Waterside”

Lake District increasingly becomes a location for remote workers, home workers, telecommuters who may commute some days outside Cumbria altogether but generally work from home. Also more lifestyle businesses (some employing others) locate to areas. Leads to a “property lite” economy as homes are the new offices. Big increase in extent of knowledge workers in the Lake District – with potential attraction to inward investors into some other parts of Cumbria.

Medium/low

“Disintegration of hill farming”

CAP reform and financial pressures force more hill farmers to sell up, or find alternative sources of income (off farm). Abandonment of hill areas to ranching style operations at best. Landscape starts to alter. Many farm buildings with potential for re-use. Agricultural workforce all but disappears and primary source of income of remaining farming families is other, off-farm sources.

Low (full), high in part or parts

Tourism “meltdown”

Lake District faces loss of traditional markets due to increase congestion in travelling there by car coupled with growth in short break/day trips focus of tourism and cheaper alternative choices. Also potential increases in the cost of car travel would raise similar challenges. Loss of higher income visitors from south of England, increasingly reliance from more local/regional visitors (and continued honey pot congestion). Many tourism buildings re-used for residential purposes

Low

Sustainable Tourism renewal

Growth in wider range of niche markets (such as high energy leisure activities and cycle tourism) and in international visitors. More visitors arriving by and using public transport. Overall numbers of visitors static or declining but spend per visitor rises and occupancy is much flatter all week long leading to an overall increase in occupancy levels.

Medium

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary What are the Issues Raised by the Scenarios? xiii.

The table below sets out some of the issue raised by the scenarios Name of 15-year scenario •

“Eastbourne by the Lakes”

“Digital Waterside”

“Disintegration of hill farming”

Tourism “meltdown”

Sustainable Tourism renewal

Opportunities and Problems Raised •

Increased demand on social and health services; falling school rolls reducing viability of schools

Could lead to increased demand for provision of sheltered housing and nursing homes locally

Possible increase in “anti development” pressures and NIMBYism and reduction in attractiveness of local towns as places for young people – polarisation of young and old

Creates new reservoir of workers who may wish to work part-time for social as much as economic reasons

Source of new social fabric and increase in community/voluntary activity

Wealthy individuals with high disposable income and seeking high quality – encouraging local firms to improve quality

Creates opportunities for younger people commuting into the Lake for work, so long as they have transport

May need too more proactively ensure affordable housing is available for specific skills and age groups

Property requirements likely to be modest – may be need for more managed/serviced office accommodation (in very limited supply) and buildings with workspace attached (many farm buildings are suitable)

Could have positive planning policies to encourage this kind of activity

Support services and networks needed – to avoid business isolation

Scope to more proactively support education, training and outdoor activities firms

Process of seeking off farm and on farm diversification will need continued support and investment – may raise need to consider planning policies for re-using agricultural buildings

Fundamental issues raised about future supply of rural skills to maintain the landscape – where will they come from?

Changes in stocking densities and implications for the landscape will need to be pre-empted and managed carefully

Need to ensure alternative non-car means of travelling to The Lakes – rail/bus or even air/bus packages; will raise importance of bus links to/from main railway entry points

Emphasis need to re-invest in the accommodation, shopping and town experience product and public realm generally

May be need to explore ways of providing cheaper (non-car) access

Will lead to challenges on planning front about re-use of hotels etc

Will require positive policies to encourage niche areas of tourism from outdoor pursuits thought to business/training/education tourism.

Also further integration of packages around access to The Lakes and then travel round the Lakes by public transport, walking and cycling will be needed.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary Experience of Other National Parks xiv.

We have reviewed some of the experience of other National Parks in the UK and abroad. In summary the findings are that: •

Most National Parks (in the UK) face similar issues to the Lake District (and indeed visitor management and traffic issues are if anything more acute for the Parks closer to major conurbations that get more day trips).

It is possible to encourage more sustainable tourism patterns by close working between agencies and mixture of stick and carrot. However, attempts to restrict or charge for parking across wide areas have proven very controversial in the UK.

Special funds have been developed (e.g. the Millennium Trust in the Yorkshire Dales) to help fund environmental improvements to National Parks and on the Continent there are charges levied on visitors (directly or via car parking charges) to help fund the upkeep of the Parks.

The idea of Zoning is common in Continental national parks (and is being in part developed in the Peak District). Zoning builds on the idea of different levels of environmental sensitivity and so visitor access with Zones where: human access is made difficult; those where it is possible, but not by car; and external buffer zones (usually outside the National Park) which focus more on recreation and which are much easier to access.

xv.

How applicable are these experiences to the Lake District? It is true that the extent of population living in the Lake District and the large numbers of access points make application of a zoning approach or car park charges difficult to develop. However, the idea of deliberately adopting a different policy framework (or interpretation of the National Park purposes and remit) for different parts of the Lake District appears to be intrinsically sound. This is particular could differentiate between the urban and non-urban parts of the Lake District.

Potential Key Policy Issues? xvi.

Looking forward we think there are several important policy issues which need resolving: •

First, under current trends market forces and the demand for houses in the National Park and surrounding areas are creating pressures which are or could be damaging in economic terms: I.

In the ability to recruit/retain staff in lower paid tourism and other sector jobs will be an issue)

II. In putting residential pressure on other commercial uses for sites and buildings. •

Second, they are also creating significant social pressures and tensions (for young or less highly skilled people). This is particularly the case where in-migration is of those of retirement age.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study – Executive Summary •

Third, it is important both for the health of the Lake District and the wider Cumbria (and North West) economy that the Lake District brand continues to perform in the future (in terms of the quality of offering in accommodation, catering and townscape terms). It would be dangerous for the area to rest on its laurels. There would appear to be an opportunity to widen the geographical catchment of visitors to increase the number of overseas visitors.

Fourth, there is clearly a particular and unique role played by the three main towns in the National Park. It is unusual for a National Park to contain such large settlements. They act as an important sponge soaking up much of the tourism pressure (and spend) and operate in a relatively self-contained and sustainable way. They are all also relatively well served by public transport links internally and externally. Growing and enhancing their role in a sustainable way in the future will be important.

Fifth, external (road) access to the area will become an important issue over the next 20 years. There is a danger this could choke off some of the tourism trade.

Sixth, there is need to consider how to better capitalise on the niche business opportunities which are located inside the National Park as well as the growth in homebased businesses.

Seventh, in view of the recent and likely future loss of employment in Furness and West Cumbria, there needs to be careful consideration of the relationship between the Lake District and these areas.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

1.

Introduction

1.1

The Lake District is an important area for residents, visitors and businesses in Cumbria and the North West. It is also an area of national and international profile. The future of the area is therefore important to a wide range of stakeholders. In December 2003, Regeneris Consulting (with Land Use Consultants and Transport for Leisure) were appointed by the Northwest Development Agency (NWDA) and partners to carry a wide ranging study into the economy and economic future of the area.

1.2

The overall purpose of the study as stated in the brief is to “identify the key issues for the economic future of the National Park and the wider Lake District area, and provide detailed recommendations for policy change to successfully address the challenges that the area will face in the next 20 years”. The study is intended to help provide “a strategic long-term vision that achieves a sustainable balance between economic prosperity, social well-being, tourism and the countryside”.

1.3

The first part of the study is, in effect, a review of the evidence base. The work in Stage 1 has focused on four strands: •

Collating and critically evaluating existing literature and data

Substantiating the key issues with independent evidence and facts

Situate this within national and global trends

Identify examples of National Park best practice elsewhere

1.4

In carrying out the Stage 1 work we have attempted to understand and address a series of questions that relate to issues raised in the study brief. A wide variety of information sources have been used ranging from official data, information generated by partners and the views and opinions of business and agencies active in the area. However, wherever possible we have tried to draw on hard facts and information. In part this is because we are wary of the danger of relying on anecdote on topics which are potentially very controversial. The 2001 Census is becoming available in ever greater levels of detail and this has proven an invaluable tool in this study.

1.5

After Stage 1, the next stage of the study is the development of policy recommendations for partners to consider. As part of this process and as part of the development and refinement of the Stage 1 work, we are holding two workshops at the end of March 2004 and will be visiting key stakeholders to discuss the study and its implications.

1.6

The Stage 1 report is structured around a series of themes and issues which are: •

Section 2 considers definitional issues - what is the Lake District?

Section 3 considers the Lake District as a Place to Visit and Stay (i.e. the tourism and visitor issues)

Section 4 considers transport issues in terms of Getting to and Travelling around the Lake District

Section 5 considers the Lake District’s Environment and its important Land Based Economy

Section 6 considers housing and residential issues in the Lake District as a Place to Live

Section 7 considers employment and business issues in terms of the Lake District as a Place to Work and Operate a Business

Section 8 considers the experience of and lessons from other National Parks

Section 9 sets out possible scenarios for change and their implications.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

2.

What is the Lake District? Brief History

2.1

The Lake District became one of England’s earliest non-urban tourist destinations in the early 19th Century as it was “discovered” and popularised by romantic poets and writers such as Wordsworth, Keats and Ruskin. This began an English love affair with the area, which lead to a rapid expansion in visitor numbers and development once railways arrived at Windermere (in 1847) and Keswick and Cockermouth in the 1860s (which closed in 1972). Other writers such as Beatrix Potter have also helped popularise the area as did of course Wainwright. It is fair to say that the Lake District has become perhaps the most written about outdoor area in the United Kingdom, with innumerable guide books and histories4. The Lake District was also the birthplace of the National Trust and, arguably, environmentalism.

2.2

The boom in outdoor activities and hill walking in particular which began in earnest after the Second World War led to a second renaissance for the Lake District, which of course became much more accessible as a result of the growth in car ownership and completion of the M6 motorway in the early 1970s.

2.3

The Lake District National Park was created under the provisions of the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 and came into being on the 15th August 1951. It was one of the first National Parks to be created (along with Dartmoor and the Peak District).

What area is covered by the “Lake District”? 2.4

For purposes of data analysis in the study we need to identify an agreed definition or set of definitions for the “Lake District”. The Lake District National Park (LDNP) area was defined in landscape terms. Therefore, the boundaries of the LDNP are, almost by definition, not ones which will always make particular sense in economic terms. As far as visitors are concerned the Lake District is a somewhat fuzzy concept and as a tourism destination it certainly includes some areas beyond the National Park Boundaries5. Indeed in landscape terms there are also areas outside the boundary of the National Park which share many characteristics of the upland parts of the National Park (for instance parts of the Cartmel and Furness peninsulas which fall outside the boundary and the area between the Lake District and Yorkshire Dales national parks.

2.5

There are two main reasons for looking beyond the National Park boundary in this study: •

Taking account of external influences into the National Park – for example residential, visitor and employment locations outside but proximate to the National Park.

Taking account of outward influences from the National Park into surrounding areas – ‘overspill effects’

2.6

Several key settlements which serve the communities living and firms based in the Lake District are just outside the LDNP boundary and have a fundamental bearing on the economy of the LDNP area. These settlements form part of an “economic penumbra” around the LDNP. This is certainly the case for several of the towns close to the LDNP boundary (Kendal, Cockermouth, Penrith, Grange and

4

A Google search on the “Lake District” produced 830,000 entries, far more than any other National Park areas in the UK

5

As evidenced by many guide books on the “Lake District” which cover settlements outside the National Park boundaries

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Ulverston). These are all towns that to an extent serve the Lake District as business and visitor centres and benefit from the immediate adjacent presence of the Lake District. 2.7

There are other settlements equally adjacent to the National Park not seen as naturally linked to the Lake District (including Workington, Barrow, Cleator Moor and Millom). However, there will be significant potential travel to work and employment opportunities in the Lake District. Such communities tend to have long established tourism ambitions related to Lake District National Park proximity and benefiting from Lake District tourism visitor overspill.

2.8

It is difficult, however, to objectively assess which settlements ought to be included in any assessment of a wider Lake District and which should be excluded. For purposes of data analysis and in addressing some of the issues we have looked at information (where it exists separately) on the settlements of Kendal, Penrith, Cockermouth and Ulverston. Map 2.1 shows these three areas. Map 2.1: Different Definitions of the Lake District

Key: Area 1 (LDNP) Area 2 Wider Lake District Linkages Area 3 – Potential Area of Wider Economic Impact

Reproduced from Ordnance Survey with kind permission, LUC Licence ALD 852368

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 2.9

Unfortunately it is impossible to establish any hard information on the nature and extent of economic linkages between the LDNP and surrounding areas (something that special workplace statistics at a ward level from the 2001 Census will help address). However, we have been able to infer a significant amount from available information. The key points are as follows: •

First, although there is very little employment in financial or business services located in the National Park itself – the traditional market towns of Penrith and Kendal have significant concentrations of such activity and so clearly in part are serving businesses in the National Park.

Second, tourism activity (as proxied by employment in hotel and catering) although at its most dense in the Lake District - especially the main towns – is also significant in parts of the surrounding areas (most noticeably Kendal and Cockermouth). However, the “Lake District effect” is almost non-existent in towns to the west of the Lake District (such as Millom, Whitehaven and Workington).

Third, parts of the Lake District appear to act as residential areas for those working in surrounding areas (in the western Lakes the high concentrations of graduate level and manufacturing workers are almost certainly associated with employment at Sellafield, in the Southern Lakes the high proportion of workers with degree level qualifications suggests a number of residents commute to Kendal and potential south to Lancaster/Preston). The comparison of information on where people employed in the manufacturing and public services sector live and where employment is suggests a substantial degree of out community of people employed in these sectors (to the main towns and employers surrounding the Lake District).

Policy Context 2.10

There are a wide range of agencies with a stake in the economic, environmental and social development of the Lake District. Table 2.1 summarises some of these roles. The role for local economic development is shared between the local authorities, the newly created RRC, the NWDA and the Countryside Agency. The table demonstrates that in the Lake District (as indeed in any rural areas) there are a wide range of public bodies with an interest in economic development matters (as indeed with other matters). There is no one body in the lead.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 2.1: Lake District – Role of Key Public Bodies (1) Local/regional National Economic development

Cumbria Inward Investment Agency

Countryside Agency

Local authorities (Allerdale, Copeland, Eden, South Lakeland and Cumbria)

DEFRA

ODPM

DEFRA

English Nature

Environment Agency

Forestry Commission

LDNPA

Rural Regeneration Cumbria (RRC)

NWDA

LDNPA

Environmental conservation and protection

Visitor and recreation Communities and people Note:

2.11

(1)

Cumbria Tourist Board

Forestry Commission

NWDA

LDNPA

Local authorities (Allerdale, Copeland, Eden, South Lakeland and Cumbria)

Countryside Agency

LDNPA

bodies are in alphabetical order, not in order of importance.

There are many bodies and key policy documents which have an important influence on the Lake District. We summarise particularly important influences below, starting with the National Park (given its national remit), then regional influences and then local/sub-regional influences. The LDNPA

2.12

The present National Park Authority was set up under the Environment Act 1995. The Lake District National Park Authority is a local government body which has two purposes: •

To conserve and enhance the natural beauty, wildlife and cultural heritage of the National Park; and

To promote opportunities for the understanding and enjoyment of the special qualities of the National Park by the public.

2.13

If there is a conflict between the two purposes, in extremis conservation takes precedence (the socalled 'Sandford' principle).

2.14

In carrying out these two main responsibilities, all National Park Authorities now have a duty to seek to “foster the social and economic well-being of local communities”, but without incurring significant expenditure.

2.15

Authorities are expected to co-operate with other organisations to fulfil this requirement. This further dimension of the NPA’s role was introduced in the Environment Act of 1995 (which also set up the current LDNPA that has the same legal and statutory role as a local authority). The LDNPA received £5.3m in grant (75% from Central Government and 25% via local authorities) in 2002/3 the second largest of the English National Parks (behind the Peak District which received £6.6m), in recognition that its role and remit are national.

2.16

The LDNPA has several practical key roles which include: •

Its role as the Planning Authority for the Lake District National Park, where it takes on the role which would otherwise be fulfilled by the District and County. The Joint Cumbria and Lake District Structure Plan is produced jointly by the County Council and the LDNPA. The LDNPA is solely responsible for the Lake District Local Plan. In 2002/3 the LDNPA dealt with 1,200

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] planning applications. Under the new planning system to be introduced once legislation is in place, LDNPA will be responsible for the single Local Development Framework (eventually replacing the Structure Plan and Local Plan) for its area. •

All NPA’s are required to produce a National Park Management Plan stating policies for managing and carrying out its functions in each National Park.

The Lake District Management Plan is

complimentary to the Development Plan (which in the Lake District consists of the Cumbria Joint Structure Plan and the Lake District National Park Local Plan). The Development Plan and the Management Plan taken together. •

Direct management of the landscape - the LDNPA owns 4% (9,000 hectares) of the National Park area. It also works in partnership with landowners and other agencies in management plans for landscapes and in the maintenance of pathways and bridleways.

Visitor and recreation – provision of information and advice to visitors, (there is a LDNPA Visitor Centre at Brockhole) and education (working on education).

Transport issues – working with the County Council and Countryside Agency it has supported a traffic management initiative for the area

Managing a Sustainable Development Fund with support from DEFRA, in order to give grants towards sustainable development projects that further National Park purposes.

2.17

In the UK, there have been perhaps two major defining moments in terms of National Parks and the wider socio-economic agenda of their local communities which to some extent has helped to bring both national and local concerns closer together. The first of these was the 1995 Environment Act which as well as establishing fully independent National Park Authorities for all ten National Parks at that time in England and Wales (the Broads Authority being a somewhat different kind of body) also gave National Park authorities a duty “to foster the economic and social well being of local communities”.

2.18

This recognition that a healthy, local economy is essential for the conservation and protection of a region’s landscape and cultural heritage brought about a number of changes in emphasis in National Park Local Plans and Management Plans, and helped to initiate a number of projects to support rural economic development. In particular the value of sustainable (however so defined) forms of tourism were recognised not just as something to be tolerated and managed, but positively encouraged.

2.19

The second defining moment occurred in 2001 with the effect of the Foot and Mouth outbreak, which in the northern National Parks in particularly had a devastating effect not just in the farming economy, but on all economic life within the affected communities. It brought greater awareness of how important tourism and visitor spend is to many rural economies of England and Wales, especially in upland areas.

2.20

A recent review of National Parks was carried out by DEFRA in 20026. The review set out 54 recommendations on the future role of NPAs, although it did not suggest any fundamental changes. Key points included the need for NPAs to:

6

“Review of English National Park countryside/consult/natpark/index.htm

Authorities”

DEFRA,

Ref: A/00124

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13

July

2002,

http://www.defra.gov.uk/wildlife-


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

Retain their statutory purposes, but with greater emphasis and clarity on their role in promoting sustainable rural development (plus an encouragement for all National Parks to share best practice in sustainable development)

There should be renewed focus on sustainable tourism and the need for sustainable tourism strategies for each National Park. There was a need for better information on visits to and tourism activity conducted within National Parks.

Regional Planning Guidance 2.21

Regional Planning Guidance acts as the Spatial Strategy for the region. The latest version was issued in March 2003. RPG provides a number of important policies relevant to the Lake District. These included in general terms:

• Identification as West Cumbria and Furness of regeneration priority areas • “Housing provision should be based on meeting local needs and reducing in-migration to the Lake District National Park and its southern and eastern hinterland” (Section 3) •

Rural Policy RU2 Diversification of the Rural Economy. This states that Development plans and other strategies should recognise the continued need for diversification and further development of the rural economy that:

¾

Maintains viable and sustainable local communities; and

¾

Respects particular environmental sensitivity and distinctiveness.

Tourism EC9 “Tourism has the potential to be a major economic driver within the North West in supporting regeneration, as well as constituting a key sectoral priority, particularly in and around the Lake District….”. It also states in para 7.15 that “The development of sustainable tourism,

located to take advantage of a range of transport modes, will not only protect the environment and heritage but also bring new employment and conservation benefits by supporting traditional farming methods and improving visitor management in areas such as the Lake District” •

Environmental policy ER2 states that…”Planning authorities and other agencies in their plans,

policies and proposals will provide the strongest levels of protection for the North West’s finest landscapes and areas of international and national importance and their settings, specifically the Lake District National Park;…”. In para 8.5 RPG states that “The Lake District, in particular, as an area of immense environmental importance and an internationally recognised tourist attraction, is of vital importance to the North West’s prosperity and quality of life”. 2.22

The Regional Planning Guidance for the North West is subject to a partial review at present and, in due course, will be superseded by the new Regional Spatial Strategy which will have a number of sub-regional planning policies and are intended to be “supportive of other regional strategies in the pursuit of sustainable development”. Regional Economic Strategy

2.23

The key regional policy document relevant to the socio-economic development of the Lake District is of course the Regional Economic Strategy (RES), which was updated in 2003. The RES sets out several policies and objectives of direct relevance to the Lake District. Table 2.2 below summarises the implications of the RES for the Lake District.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 2.2: Implications of the North West Regional Economic Strategy for the RES RES Strategic Objective 1. Exploit the growth potential of business sectors.

Two of the target sectors tourism and to a lesser extent food and drink have strong presences in the Lake District and firms there are an important part of the sectors, most of the other sectors have a very limited presence in the area

2. Improve the competitiveness and productivity of businesses.

A generic objective which applies to Lake District businesses, the high business start-up rate and evidence of entrepreneurship is an opportunity to exploit

3. Develop and exploit region’s knowledge base.

Limited direct relevance as the Lake District by and large lacks a local knowledge base, although it is accessible to Lancaster University and there is some HE presence in or close to it.

4. Deliver urban renaissance.

Indirectly hugely relevant as West Cumbria and Furness are one of the RES’ key spatial priorities and it led to the creation of West Lakes Renaissance. The Lake District potentially has a role to help policies and programme so support these areas

5. Deliver rural renaissance.

Highly relevant to the area, the objective and programmes developed in response to FMD and the long run changes in agriculture are very important. Several Market Town Initiatives have been developed in or close to the Lake District (Ambleside/Windermere, Keswick, Cockermouth, Penrith, Millom)

6. Secure economic inclusion.

Relevant for those in the Lake District unable to afford a car and unable to access employment opportunities

a

A generic measure – the Lake District has an important role as a centre of education and training

8. Develop the strategic transport, communications and economic infrastructure.

Many transport priorities relate to the urban areas, although RES identifies access to, and movement within, rural areas and coastal resorts as specific areas to be addressed

9. Ensure the availability of a balanced portfolio of employment sites.

No regionally strategic employment sites are in the Lake District, although Westlakes Science Park is close to Whitehaven, and Kingmoor Park is just North of Carlisle. Furthermore NWDA has invested or will invest in subregionally important sites such as Lillyhall (Workington), Barrow Docks and Penrith Business Park)

10. Develop and market the region’s image

Highly relevant to the Lake District which is one of the region’s key selling points. The Regional Tourism strategy developed since the RES identifies the Lakes as one of the region’s four internationally recognized attack brands.

7. Develop and maintain healthy labour market.

the

Issues for Lake District

Cumbria and Lake District Joint Structure Plan 2.24

The Structure Plan sets out the strategy and policies for the development and land use within the county of Cumbria and the Lake District National Park. Cumbria County Council and the Lake District National Park Authority are each responsible for the preparation of a Structure Plan to cover their specific area. The decision has been made to prepare these plans together to ensure planning policy in the county is not disjointed.

2.25

In addition, the plan provides the framework for the preparation of the Local Plans – whilst the Lake District covers area located in four Local Authority areas, it is treated as a single entity with regard to planning policy and therefore has its own Local Plan. Together, the Structure Plan and the Local Plans provide a context for deciding planning applications.

2.26

The Structure and Local Plans are not stand-alone documents – they are required to take account of European, National and Regional planning policy. Within the National Park area, strategic planning policies must also take account of National Park designation (set out in the Environment Act, 1995) and the two purposes described earlier. If conflicts arise between these two purposes, the first prevails.

Ref: A/00124

Page 8


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Cumbria Tourist Board 2.27

The CTB has had a key role in promoting tourism in all of Cumbria including the Lake District. Until recently it was funded by two main sources, direct support from DCMS and membership and commercial income. The CTB provides marketing services, research and workforce development support. There have been important changes as a result of the re-structuring of support for tourism and the North West Tourism Strategy, the CTB is in the process of becoming the Destination Management Organisation (DMO) for Cumbria. In this role it will continue to be responsible for marketing the area, but also will be directly involved in investment decisions for tourism facilities using NWDA resources. Rural Regeneration Cumbria

2.28

Rural Regeneration Cumbria was established in 2003 as the rural regeneration company for Cumbria to tackle restructuring pressures in the post FMD rural economy and to deliver the Rural Action Zone (Next Steps) Strategy. Rural Regeneration Cumbria manages significant resources from NWDA as part of an overall funding package for rural regeneration and recovery in Cumbria in excess of £245m (RAZ Next Steps), and also works closely with Cumbrian Rural Enterprise Agency, DEFRA and the ERDP (England Rural Development Programme) and Leader+.

2.29

The whole of the Lake District National Park area is included within the RAZ. The RRC activity is structured around eight strategic objectives: •

Broadening the Economic Base of Rural Areas

Renew & Strengthen Sustainable Recreation and Tourism

Assisting the Restructuring of Agriculture

Enhancing the Competitiveness of Primary Agriculture

Rural Skills Development

Development and Promotion of Countryside Products

Sustaining the Rural Environment

Delivering Social and Community Regeneration.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

3.

The Lake District as a Place to Visit and Stay

3.1

The Lake District as a major destination and a place with a strong sense of history and literature, as has been said earlier a place that has been extensively written about and commentated on for several centuries. The importance of the Lake District was recognised in the recently completed North West Tourism Strategy, where the Lake District was identified as one of only four “Star Brands” for the region as a whole. Box 3.1: How well known is the Lake District? More people in the UK are interested in finding information about the Lake District than any other national park or scenic area, according to recent statistics from Yell.com in September 2003, on of the UK's leading online classified directory service. The top 10 destinations are: 1. Lake District 6. Peak District 2. New Forest 7. Forest of Dean 3. Cotswolds 8. Dartmoor 4. Yorkshire Dales 9. Exmoor 5. Loch Lomond 10. Snowdonia Source: Yell.com - 28 November 2003

The Lake District as a World Heritage Site? 3.2

The Lake District National Park Authority has been trying since 1985 to win World Heritage Site status from UNESCO. It is possible that such a designation could bring the sort of kudos which might attract more visitors and help when getting finance from the government. However, we are not aware of any hard evidence that the attraction of World Heritage Status has increased tourism visits to any of the recently designated UK sites7. Whilst this status could put the international spotlight on the Lake District (and hence bring economic and social benefits through special interest tourism and employment opportunities) it could also be true that an area such as the Lake District that gains World Heritage Site status is already very well know as a ‘heritage’ attraction, so that status will bring little added benefit.

3.3

Whilst it could be argued that the high levels of tourism in the Lake District has created an imbalanced economy and, therefore, additional controls on development would be helpful, there are also concerns that World Heritage Status could lead to too strict controls on development and hence damage the tourism industry, which is of such importance to the area.

Current Situation Scale and Importance of Tourism 3.4

Tourism is of immense importance to the Lake District in terms of the employment supported by the industry and Gross Value Added income created for the area. In 2002, tourism generated for the Lake District economy: •

£534 million in GVA;

7

There are 15 WH site in England: Durham Cathedral and Castle (1986), Fountains Abbey, St Mary's Church and Studley Royal Park (1986), Ironbridge Gorge (1986), Stonehenge, Avebury and associated sites (1986), Blenheim Palace and Park (1987), Palace of Westminster, St Margaret's Church and Westminster Abbey (1987), City of Bath (1987), Hadrian's Wall (1987), The Tower of London (1989), Canterbury Cathedral (with St Augustine's Abbey and St Martin's Church) (1988), Maritime Greenwich (1997), Dorset and East Devon Coast (2001) (natural site), Saltaire (2001), Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (2003)

Ref: A/00124

Page 10


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

12,700 FTE8 jobs;

21,800 total jobs; and

8.1 million visitors (including day visitors) staying for a total of 14.8 million tourist days. Table 3.1: Economic Value of Tourism to the Lake District NPA, 2002 All Visitors

Day Visitors Nos. £131.8m

% of total

GVA £534.3 million FTE Jobs 12,700 Total Jobs 21,800 Visitor Numbers 8.1 million 5.8 Tourist Days 14.8 million 5.8 Average GVA per £22.7 visitor Average GVA per £22.7 trip Source: STEAM Model Economic Impact Assessment, 13.01.04

25%

Staying Visitors Nos. % of total £402.5m 75%

72% 39%

2.3 9.0 £44.7

28% 61%

£175

3.5

The contribution of tourism to GVA in the Lake District National Park area in 2002 represents 54% of the total tourism GVA in Cumbria, and is higher than that for any one individual Cumbria Local Authority area. The average contribution of a day visitor to the Lake District as opposed to other parts of Cumbria as almost identical. However, staying visitors to the Lake District both make a larger contribution per day and stay nearly 20% longer per trip, so overall each staying visitor in the Lake District contributes nearly 25% more to GVA than staying visitors elsewhere in Cumbria

3.6

The tourism industry nationally suffered a severe downturn during 2001 as a result of the Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak. This disease had the most acute impact in Cumbria, so it is not a surprise that tourism in the Lake District and Cumbria as a whole suffered intensely (GVA actually fell by 6.6% from 2000 to 2001). However, following this down-turn in the tourism industry, GVA increased by 15.3% in the Lake District NP area to 2002 (an overall rise of 7.7% in total from 2000 to 2002), illustrating a fast and strong recovery rate. The rise in GVA in the Lake District between 2000 and 2002 is slightly slower than the total Cumbria rise but still higher than three of the Local Authority areas9 that partially make up the Lake District NP area.

3.7

The data for the period since 1999 comes from CTB’s STEAM model; we have attempted to look at longer term trends using annual CTB Tourism Fact Sheets back to 1990. These indicate limited if any growth in the overall number of domestic nights in Cumbria overall (no separate data is available for the Lake District) depending on which end points are taken. The evidence suggests that overall Cumbria’s market share of UK trips/nights has been flat during the 1990s10.

3.8

In terms of tourism jobs, 52.5% of the total and FTE jobs in tourism in Cumbria are located within the Lake District National Park area. This suggests that the part time nature and/or seasonality of tourism jobs are comparable both within the Lake District and the county of Cumbria as a whole. The relative importance of tourism employment can be seen further when considering that 59% of all employment in the Lake District is within the tourism sector, compared to 12% in Cumbria11.

8

Full Time Equivalent

9

Allerdale (7.6%), Copeland (-11.0%) and Eden (2.8%) – GVA in South Lakeland increased by 12.0%

10

Cumbria Strategic Tourism Market and Development Forecasts, Locum, February 2003

11

Comparison of 2002 FTE Employment (STEAM) to 2002 All Employment (Annual Business Inquiry – LD area based on 1991 wards)

Ref: A/00124

Page 11


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 3.9

Employment in tourism is split between a number of sectors, both directly and indirectly related to tourism. The spilt in employment in the Lake District is similar to the split in Cumbria as a whole. Employment from expenditure on accommodation accounts for the largest single employment grouping in the Lake District at 34.4% of total employment whilst that from food and drink expenditure accounts for a further 17.5%. Figure 3.1: Tourism Employment by Sector (%), 2002 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0

d In c ire

t

rin

pl m tE

or sp

D

n tio

&

g in

a re ec

d

an Tr

p op Sh

R

o Fo

a od m m co Ac

en m oy

k

n tio

Cumbria

t

Lake District

Source: STEAM Model Economic Impact Analysis (13.01.04)

3.10

The relative role of tourism expenditure in supporting tourism employment varies, as exemplified by the chart below. In particular tourism accommodation expenditure disproportionally supports employment in the Lake District. The reason for this is the relatively low “leakage� of this type expenditure out of the area (compared to say retailing and transport). Figure 3.2: Tourism Employment compared to Tourist Expenditure (%), 2002, Lake District NP area. 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0

d In ct ire

Page 12

t or sp

k rin

n tio

Source: STEAM Model Economic Impact Analysis, 13.01.04

Ref: A/00124

g in

D

n tio

&

p op

a re ec

d

a od m

Expenditure

an Tr

Sh

R

o Fo

m co Ac

Employment


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Diversity of Tourism 3.11

It must be noted that whilst tourism as a whole is very important to the economy of the Lake District (and is treated as one division of the economy within this report); it is actually not a homogenous sector. Tourism is very diverse – in the Lake District the ‘tourism sector’ includes such activities as: •

Staying in hotels or in caravan parks;

Eating in restaurant, pubs and cafes or eating fish and chips and ice creams;

Gentle short walks or ‘extreme’ outdoor pursuits; and

Town-based activities such as visiting museums and shopping or ‘get away from it all’ activities.

Main Market Segments

Origin of Visitors 3.12

The vast majority of visitors to the Lake District (92%12) and Cumbria as a whole (90%) are from the UK, although there are certain areas of the UK that are more representative of visitors than elsewhere, and this alters depending on whether the visitors are day trippers or staying over night. Although CTB does not have information on where UK visitors to the Lake District come from within the UK13, they do have information for Cumbria as a whole.

3.13

Day visitors tend to live closer to the final destination than staying visitors – 80% of all day visitors live with 2 hours drive time of their destination in Cumbria compared to just 37% of staying visitors14. Consequently, 53% of all day visitors live in the ‘North’ region (North East and Cumbria) and a further 21% live in the North West. Including Yorkshire and the Humber (6%), 80% of day visitors to Cumbria live in the northern regions of England compared with just 46% of staying visitors. In addition, whilst travelling to Cumbria for the day is clearly difficult from London and the South East (just 5% of day visitors) it is far more significant in terms of staying visitors with 21% of staying visitors originating from London and the South East.

3.14

The figures below illustrate the postcode analysis of visitors to Cumbria. There are large concentrations around the conurbations, especially in the North West and North East for both staying and day visitors suggesting that trips to Cumbria are mainly made by more urban residents rather than those living in rural areas – this is true even of local visitors (Cumbria residents visiting other parts of the county) – there are concentrations of day visitors resident along the more urban coastline of Cumbria (i.e. Barrow-in-Furness, Workington and Whitehaven).

3.15

Assuming the geographical origin of visitors to the Lake District is broadly similar to that of Cumbria (we have no evidence to suggest it is not), we can assess in broad terms to contribution made by staying and day visitors to overall GVA generated by tourism in the Lake District as follows. The key points from our calculations are: •

Visitors from the three northern regions account for over 50% of tourism GVA (combining day and staying visits)

Overseas visitors account for around 8% (although 10% of all staying visitor generated GVA)

12

Cumbria Tourism survey, 2002

13

Although they do survey visitors to Cumbria as a whole

14

Cumbria Tourist Board (2003) Cumbria Staying Visitor Profile & Cumbria Day Visitor Profile

Ref: A/00124

Page 13


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

London and the South East is the most important region outside the north, accounting for around 13% of tourism GVA. Table 3.2: Estimates of Contribution to Lake District Tourism GVA by type and origin of visitor Type and Origin of Visitor Estimated Contribution to GVA, 2002 £ms % of total

Day All Staying Overseas UK staying: of which •

Northern region

London and SE

Rest of UK

131.8 402.5 42.1 360.4 165.8

24.7% 75.3% 7.9% 67.4% 31.0%

68.5

12.8%

126.1

23.6%

Source: Regeneris Consulting calculations based on Cumbria Tourism Survey (2002), Cumbria Day Visitor Profile and Cumbria Staying Visitor Profile (2003) and STEAM model Note: (1) assumes overseas visitors spend 34.5% more per trip than UK staying visitors (based on Star UK Cumbria Tourism Statistics for 2002 (2) assumes same spend per visit for visitors from different parts of the UK

3.16

3.17

Whilst less than 10% of all visitors to both the Lakes and Cumbria are from overseas, it is an important grouping since they tend to spend more money and stay for longer periods of time than UK visitors (the average trip by an overseas staying visitor leads to 34% more expenditure than that by a UK staying visitor) . The main countries of origin of overseas visitors include: •

Europe: 2%;

USA: 2%; and

Australia and South Africa: 2%.

However, overseas visitors currently have a smaller impact on the Lake District than elsewhere in England. Cumbria attracts the lowest amount and lowest proportion of overseas visitors compared to all other tourist board regions in England.

Ref: A/00124

Page 14


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Figure 3.3: Origin of UK Resident Day and Staying Visitors to Cumbria, 2003

Origin of Staying Visitors

Origin of Day Visitors

Scotland – 7%

Scotland – 6%

North West – 21% West Midlands – 3%

Wales 1%

North – 53%

North – 13%

Yorkshire & the Humber – 6%

Yorkshire & the Humber – 13% North West – 20%

East Midlands – 2% West Midlands – 6%

Eastern – 1%

East Midlands – 6% Eastern – 4%

Wales – 2%

London – 2% South West – 2%

London – 1%

South – 6%

West

South East – 4%

Source: Cumbria Tourist Board (2003) Cumbria Day Visitor Profile and Cumbria Staying Visitor Profile Ref: A/00124

Page 15

South East – 19%


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Age and Gender Profile of Visitors 3.18

The division of visitors by gender to the Lake District is 50:5015 although a slightly higher number of women visit Cumbria (51%) to men (49%). In terms of the age groups who visit the National Park, the largest single group is those aged 45-54 years, followed by the 35-44 age group. The smallest group to visit the Lake District are those aged 16-24. In comparison to Cumbria, the breakdown is similar across all groups although more young people (up to 34 years old) visit the Lake District than Cumbria whilst fewer people aged 55-64 years go to the Lakes. Figure 3.4: Age Breakdown of Visitors to the Lake District, 2002 25 20 %

15 10 5 0 16-24

25-34

35-44 Lake District

45-54

55-64

65+

Cumbria

Source: Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

3.19

Although figures for changes in the gender and age breakdown of visitors to the Lake District are not available, changes for Cumbria are illustrated below. Over the six year period, the numbers of female visitors has increased by 50% whilst the proportion of visitors who are male has fallen by 27%.

3.20

Changes in the age breakdown are more significant, however – the age profile is ageing considerably. The proportion of younger people visiting the county is falling; there has been no change for the age group 45-54 whilst many older people are visiting the area (the percentage of 65+ people has been raised by 220%). By 2002, therefore, 37% of visitors to Cumbria were aged over 55 compared to only 19% in 1996.

15

Cumbria Tourism survey, 2002

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 3.5: Change in Gender & Age Breakdown of Visitors to Cumbria, 19962002 250.0 200.0

% change

150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

+ 65

4 -6 55

4 -5 45

4 -4 35

4 -3 25

4 -2 16

e al

e al m Fe

M

-50.0 -100.0

Source: Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

Type of Trip & Type of Accommodation Used 3.21

A total of 5.8 million people visited the Lake District in 2002 as day visitors, comprising 72% of the total tourist numbers to the Park. 57% of all day visitors to Cumbria go to the Lake District. Another 2.3 million people spent at least one night staying in the Lake District: •

1.3 million in serviced accommodation;

900,000 in non-serviced accommodation; and

100,000 stayed with family or friends.

3.22

Whilst 50% of those in serviced accommodation and 56% of those in non-serviced accommodation in Cumbria stayed in the Lake District, only 14% of those staying with family or friends were based in the Park, indicating the low significance of this form of accommodation (not surprising given the small resident population of the Lake District). In terms of time spent in the Lakes, people staying in non-serviced accommodation spend much longer there than those staying in serviced accommodation or with family or friends – on average, people using this form of accommodation stay for almost a week compared to just two days for those in other types of accommodation.

3.23

As a result of staying for longer, visitors in non-serviced accommodation contribute more to the Lake District economy (GVA) – an average of £201.20 per visitor – compared with £168.30 from those in serviced accommodation and just £22.70 per visitor for day trippers and £27.00 for those staying with family and friends. However, revenue accrued per day spent in the Lakes falls steeply for nonserviced accommodation guests – to just £30.20 – whilst for serviced accommodation guests the figure is £78.10. Indeed, daily revenue generated by non-serviced accommodation is not particularly more than that for day visitors (although daily spend for visitors staying with friends and family is only £13.50) – indicating that day visitors do in fact spend more than some staying visitors on non-accommodation services and goods.

Ref: A/00124

Page 17


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 3.6: Average Days Spent in Lake District, 2002 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Serviced Non-Serviced Accommodation Accommodation

SFR

Day Visitors

Source: Regeneris Calculations (original data from STEAM Model Economic Impact Analysis, 13th January 2004)

Figure 3.7: Average Revenue Generated by Category of Visitor, 2002 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 Serviced Non-Serviced Accommodation Accommodation Rev/Visitor

SFR

Day Visitors

Rev/Day

Source: Regeneris Calculations (original data from STEAM Model Economic Impact Analysis, 13th January 2004) 3.24

Accommodation types can be further split into types used by visitors to the Lake District. The main forms of accommodation, accounting for 62% of all staying visitors, include the self catering (19%) and caravan and camping facilities (19% paid and 13% unpaid) (all non-serviced accommodation), followed by boarding and/or guest houses and bed and breakfast amenities (11%). Whilst Cumbria as a whole has a similar make up of accommodation use to the Lake District, staying with family or friends is much more common. The chart below significantly illustrates the large difference between levels of people staying with friends and relatives in the Lake District (5%) compared to Cumbria (13%). In total, however, 20% of all visitors to the Lakes stay in free accommodation, hence having limited impact on the local economy.

Ref: A/00124

Page 18


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 3.25

A major issue of accommodation use in rural areas such as the Lake District is that of ‘Second Homes’. The issue of second homes is discussed in more detail elsewhere in the report, but as can be seen 3% of all visitors to the Lake District stay in a second home (compared to 2% for Cumbria). Figure 3.8: Accommodation Type used by Visitor to Lake District (%), 2002 Accommodation Type (%), 2002 20 18 16 14 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0

m co Ac e e &B Fr -B er e th g O us in er e ho at m rm C o lf H Fa e nd - S cs co Fa e S e o u s u re h is l rm Le ote Fa H ith w se el ou ot H H ry ive nt at m ou Re l co C Ac s/ r nd fo ie s id Fr ac Pa F er re th B su O b ei t/B& tL Pu s n/ ou ue In G ith g/ ing w n el di m p ot ar a H Bo /C er an th rav ng O a pi C am ee /C ring Fr an te av Ca f el C

ar

e th O

rS Lake District

Cumbria

Source: Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002 Note: The data used for the above chart is from a survey of 2,207 visitors to Cumbria; 1,129 visitors to the Lake District

Overseas Visitors 3.26

In 2002, an estimated 180,000 overseas visitors came to Cumbria, staying for a total of 971,000 nights in the county (that is, an average of 5.4 days per visitor) and spending £41 million (an average of £227 per person16). These figures appear to have all declined dramatically since 1999: •

The number of overseas visitors fell by 63,000 people (a decline of 26%);

The total number of nights spent in Cumbria by overseas visitors has decreased by 587,000 (38%);

The average length of time spend in the county has fallen from 6.4 days to 5.4 days;

The total amount spent by overseas visitors has declined by £23 million (or 36%); and

The average amount spent per person has also decreased by £37 (a reduction of 16%).

3.27

These declines are not specific to the Lake District or Cumbria, and in part may be explained by general overseas visitor trends in the UK. Overseas trips fell by 4% in England between 1999 and 2002 (with a 10% decline 1999-2001) and spend by 10% between 1999 and 2002, although the position was not so stark for overseas tourism in England outside London. This trend is due to a number of issues including FMD and terrorist activities in the USA.

3.28

There is a lack of reliable data on long run trends in overseas visitors to Cumbria/the Lake District – largely because the International Passenger Survey which is the main source of information has such small sample sizes. We have examined figures back to 1990 and for Cumbria they suggest that the trend in overseas visitor numbers is either static or possibly in decline – against a 40% increase overall in the UK over this period.

16

International Passenger Survey, 2002. it is important to note that the sample sizes are small for an area like Cumbria

Ref: A/00124

Page 19


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Purpose of Visit 3.29

The main reason for overseas visitors visiting Cumbria is for a holiday – accounting for 49% of all visitors, 50% of all nights spent in the county and 53% of total spend. The second most popular reason to visit the area is for visiting friends or relatives (36% of visitors; 38% of nights and 35% of spend). Study and miscellaneous visits to Cumbria are not particularly numerous nor do they contribute greatly in terms of spend. Business trips only account for 12% of the total numbers and 7% of all nights (indicating that business trips are shorter in duration than holidays and visit to friends and relatives). However, these proportions have actually fallen since 1999 from 11.5% and 5.6% respectively. Conversely, the proportional level of spend on overseas business trips has actually risen since 1999 to 14% of the total. Table 3.3: Purpose of Visits of Overseas Visitors to Cumbria, 2002 Visits ('000s)

Nights ('000s)

No.

No.

%

%

Spend (m) No.

%

Holiday

88

48.9

488

50.3

21

52.5

Business

22

12.2

70

7.2

4

10.0

Visiting Friends or Relatives 65 36.1 Study 1 0.6 Miscellaneous 4 2.2 Total 180 100.0 Source: International Passenger Survey, 2002

369 2 42 971

38.0 0.2 4.3 100.0

14 0 1 40

35.0 0.0 2.5 100.0

The Tourism Infrastructure

Bed Stock 3.30

There are approximately 65,510 bed spaces available for tourists in the Lake District17 to accommodate the 2.3 million staying visitors each year. This is a significantly high level of available space, especially when considering it is 57% higher than the total population of the Lake District18. In comparison, whilst the population in Northumberland National Park is much lower than the Lake District, there is also ‘very little’19 accommodation within the Park. Other National Parks also have much lower levels of tourist bed spaces20.

Visitor Attractions 3.31

The Lake District’s appeal is primarily in its high quality, attractive landscape. Indeed the majority of people visit both locations for either a holiday or a pleasure trip21 and, compared to England, staying visitors to Cumbria in the summer season are more likely to: •

Take both long and short walks;

Take a boat cruise on one of the lakes;

17

www.tiscali.co.uk/wandering

18

Population = 41,831; 2001 Census

19

Northumberland National Park Authority – they were unable to a figure for the Park since they do not keep data although the majority of local accommodation is located outside of the Park. Very little accommodation is located in the Park itself.

20

Other National Parks were unable to give a figure for bed spaces but none expected their figure to be as high as that for the Lake District

21

96% in the Lake District and 87% in Cumbria; Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

Ref: A/00124

Page 20


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

Go cycling (but not off-road);

Go rock climbing, mountaineering, abseiling, caving or potholing22.

3.32

Most of these activities are pursuits carried out outdoors but most are not especially ‘outdoor’ or ‘countryside’ activities in the truest sense of the word. Physical activity and outdoor pursuits are usually indulged in by only less than 10% of visitors.

3.33

Whilst people are drawn to the Lake District because of its high quality natural environment, the thriving tourist attractions in the Lakes are not related specifically to walking, sightseeing or outdoor sports (suggesting that visitors wish to undertake general tourism activities in a specific environment and of course may undertake different activities depending on the weather). Many of these are successful in attracting large numbers of people. Indeed, there are eight visitor attractions in the Lake District National Park and a further four located just outside of the Park boundaries that pulled in more than 20,000 visitors in 2002. These twelve visitor attractions comprise of both free to enter and fee-charging establishments. The most popular free attraction in 2002 was the Lake District Visitor Centre in Windermere, which was visited by 165,000 people. Overall, however, the most popular attraction in the Lake District – Windermere Lake Cruises in Ambleside – generated visitor numbers in excess of 1.26 million, making it the third most popular visitor attraction in the whole of the North West region. Table 3.4 Top Lake District Attractions, 2002 Attraction Location Paid/Free 2002 2001 Windermere Lake Cruises Ambleside Paid 1,266,027 1,241,918 Rheged the Village in the Hill Penrith Paid 404,068 356,038 South Lakes Wild Animal Park Dalton-in-Furness Paid 226,000 218,000 Aquarium of the Lakes Newby Bridge Paid 200,000 200,000 Lakes Glass Centre Ulverston Paid 170,879 141,989 Lake District Visitor Centre Windermere Free 165,000 140,000 Lakeside & Haverthwaite Railway Ulverston Paid 120,000 120,000 Ravenglass & Eskdale Railway Ravenglass Paid 110,000 104,964 Home of Football Ambleside Free 80,000 80,000 Cartmel Priory Cartmel Free 60,232 61,000 Tea pottery Keswick Free 31,131 32,104 Beckstones Art Gallery Penrith Free 21,500 18,000 Source: Star UK Note: Shading indicates attraction is situated just outside the Lake District boundaries

3.34

In addition, a further Lake District attraction – Rheged the Village in the Hill (located just outside of the actual Park) – falls just outside of the top 10 attractions in the North West (12th); visited by over 400,000 people. Of the other nine attractions in the top 10, 5 are located within the metropolitan areas of Merseyside and Greater Manchester and a further 3 are in Cheshire with the final attraction being Blackpool Pleasure Beach. All are much more easily accessible to a much larger population than the attractions within the Lake District, hence illustrating the shear scale of tourism to this relatively isolated corner of the region.

Urban Areas 3.35

22

Whilst the Lake District is known for its rural nature, there are a number of significant urban areas within the National Park Area, including: Windermere and Bowness; Ambleside; and Keswick. Significant towns with tourism activity lie just outside the park (Kendal, Cockermouth, Penrith and Ulverston). The Lake District is unique compared to other National Parks in England in that few

Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

Ref: A/00124

Page 21


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] others have settlements on the scale of the towns in the Lakes. For example, the town of Windermere has a population of 6,10023 and Ambleside’s population is 3,60024 whilst the Northumberland National Park has a total population of only 1,900 and Exmoor 10,900. It is, therefore, to be expected that these urban areas act as a ‘honey pot’ for the Lake District – i.e. puling in numerous tourists with stand-alone tourist appeal, offering a range of activities, cultural experiences and good quality hospitality. Indeed, the main visitor attractions in the Lake District (as discussed above) are located within the towns and ‘Visiting Towns’ is the most common activity undertaken by visitors to Cumbria, with nearly three quarters of all people spending time in an urban area. 3.36

Other common activities include: •

Short walks (of less than 2 miles);

Shopping;

Visiting restaurants; and

Visiting pubs.

3.37

All of the above activities are either generally located in towns or are potentially located in towns. And although, as discussed above, Cumbria and especially the Lake District is perceived to be somewhere to visit for the beauty and tranquillity of its outdoor scenery, five of the top seven activities are either town based or sedentary.

3.38

So, therefore, even though the region may be perceived to offer visitors the beauty of the countryside, the majority of visitors go to the area to indulge in town-based activities, generally satisfying ‘creature comforts’ (food and drink; shopping; visiting attractions). The towns, therefore, have a large and important role in terms of tourism to the Lake District. Figure 3.9: Activities Undertaken by Visitors to Cumbria* (%), 2001 80 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0

g in g m in im ng ch es tion at Sw h i at W ruis trac nb if e C At Su ildl oat of / W r B pes ast rd o ot T y Co Bi /M er he /t ke t h La g O hes c in ea sit Vi g B its s ib in ite sit Exh e S Vi g g in rita e sit Vi g H in s sit lk Vi Wa ar C ng by Lo g in s s ur ub nt To g P ura ide t a ys in es ntr sit R Vi ou g C in e sit Vi g th in sit g Vi n pi op lks a Sh t W ns or ow T

sit

Sh

Vi

g in

Source: Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002 * Includes activities undertaken by 10% or more of visitors

23

2001 Census; comprising of the wards Windermere Bowness South (1,774), Windermere Bowness North (2,040) and Windermere Town (2,295)

24

2001 Census; using the ward of Lakes Ambleside where the town of Ambleside is located

Ref: A/00124

Page 22


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Quality of the Product 3.39

Figure 3.10 below illustrates the proportion of visitors to the Lake District and Cumbria rating certain aspects of their trip as ‘very good’ – it must be pointed out, however, that the majority of respondents rated all aspects as at least ‘good’25. Overall rating are lowest where it comes to ‘value for money’ (more so for the Lake District than Cumbria) and also for the range and quality of the shops (again, more so for the Lake District).

3.40

Nearly 50% of visitors rated the places to eat and drink in the Lakes as ‘very good’, a similar proportion to those who rated the attractions and things to do as highly. However, in both cases the overall quality and value for money of these was not judged to be as good.

3.41

Visiting the Lake District, especially in terms of the total experience, rates extremely well by visitors with three quarters of visitors stating the experience was ‘very good’. It also rates well compared to other places in the UK (with over 65% of Lake District visitors) and whilst it does not compared so well to overseas tourist locations, over 40% still stated the Lake District was ‘very good’ in comparison, higher than Cumbria as a whole. Figure 3.10: Quality of the Product - % Visitors Perceiving Product as “Very Good” 80 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10

Attractions/Things to do

Shops

Places to Eat & Drink

Lake District

Abroad

in the UK

Value for Money

Experience

Value for Money

Overall Quality

No. & Variety

Value for Money

Overall Quality

No. & Variety

Value for Money

Overall Quality

No. & Variety

0

Overall Visit Overall to Cumbria Experience Compared

Cumbria

Source: Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

Hotels, Pubs and Restaurants 3.42

25

Pubs and Restaurants: The quality of the tourism offering in the Lake District can be exemplified by considering the quality of its establishments. For instance, in Great Britain 87 public houses have been given the rating “1 Star” by the Good Food Guide. Of these, 5 are located within the Lake District boundaries – that is 5.7% of the total. In addition, there are also a number of pubs classified as providing: •

Good Food – 4 pubs;

Good Place to Stay – 13 pubs;

Good Wine – 6 pubs;

Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

Ref: A/00124

Page 23


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

Good Beer – 11 pubs.

3.43

The Lake District is over represented at a national level in all of these categories, and especially in terms of offering a ‘good place to stay’ and ‘good beer’ when considering that the Lake District is home to only 0.08% of the Great Britain population26.

3.44

Hotels: In terms of hotels, the Lake District also has a far higher proportion of high quality accommodation than would be expected. The website ‘hotels-of-britain.co.uk’ allows users to find good quality accommodation in Britain and Ireland. It only includes hotel accommodation rated as of “high quality” by the AA. It holds details of 77 hotels based in the North West region, of which 43 are in Cumbria (56% of the regional total). This in itself is far higher than expected with regard to population, area or number of businesses. However, 30 of these hotels are based within the Lake District – that is 70% of the Cumbria total and 39% of the North West total – indicating both the shear quantity of North West tourism that is based in the Lakes as well as the high standard of accommodation to be found within the National Park. Figure 3.11: High Quality Accommodation in the Lake District, 2004 100

No.

80 60 40 20 0 Lake District

Rest of Cumbria

Rest of North West

Source: Hotels of Britain, 2004

3.45

In comparison to the rest of the country, there are 786 hotels listed for England and Wales (the Lake District accounts for 3.8% of these). The Lake District is the only National Park that is mentioned as a stand-alone area (which in itself suggests the relative importance of the Lake District as a destination). The Cotswolds, however (which covers all of Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire) has 49 hotels listed (although over a larger, more populous and easier to reach area that the Lake District) but the North East (which includes the Northumberland National Park) has just 21 hotels listed.

3.46

Self Catering Accommodation: The Lake District is also well served in respect to good quality self catering holiday accommodation. Nearly 10% of all the self catering cottages in Great Britain listed by “English Country Cottages” are located within the Lake District National Park27 (47 out of 500 compared to 41 in Snowdonia28, 26 in the North Yorkshire Moors and 16 in Dartmoor29 although a search of the Peak District brought up 62 properties). In Cumbria, cottages in the Lake District account for a total of 65% of all listed by the website.

26

2001 Census

27

Based on a website search (www.english-country-cottages.co.uk) for accommodation to sleep two people

28

Including North Wales

29

Including West Devon

Ref: A/00124

Page 24


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 3.47

Although the 47 establishments in the Lake District include cottages located in 23 different localities, over half are found in just 4 places and over a quarter are in Windermere: •

Windermere: 13

Ambleside: 5

Ullswater: 4

Cartmel Fell: 3

Outdoor Activity Areas (The Forest Parks) 3.48

3.49

There are two Forest Parks located within the Lake District – Whinlatter and Grizedale. They are both managed by the Forestry Commission and cover 3,500ha and 2,500ha respectively. Both areas are highly forested – two thirds of Whinlatter is forested whilst up to 90% of Grizedale is tree lined. They both offer a number of facilities and activities for visitors, including: •

Walking;

Cycling;

Horse Riding;

Orienteering;

View Points;

Play Areas;

Picnic Sites;

Educational Activities; and

Wildlife Activities.

Whinlatter currently attracts approximately 150,000 visitors per year. This figure has been rising steadily over the last three to four years as a direct result of the Osprey Project (the Lake District Osprey Project is managed by a partnership of the Forestry Commission, Lake District National Park Authority and Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and is aiming to reintroduce Osprey’s to the Lake District). Visitor numbers are expected to continue rising steadily over then next few years. Levels of visitor numbers are slightly higher at Grizedale – at approximately 200,000 per year. Both Forest Parks are free to enter so the income made from visitors is limited – Grizedale generates £200,000 per annum and Whinlatter approximately £150,000. Past Trends

3.50

Tourism within the Lake District and across the country follows a number of distinct trends – some of which have been evident for some time whilst others are the product of a changing tourism market internationally and nationally. Key trends witnessed over recent years include: •

Long stay holidays are on the decline. Short holidays – especially of 4 nights or less – are on the increase and now represent 56% of all staying trips to the Lake District. Stays of more than 7 nights now represent a small part of Lake District tourism (28%).

There has been a significant long term switch from serviced accommodation to self catering, especially for longer breaks. 30% of staying visitors to the Lakes now stay in serviced accommodation compared to 66% in non-serviced accommodation.

Currently, serviced accommodation is still the predominant accommodation for short breaks but customers increasingly want self-catering for short breaks also.

Ref: A/00124

Page 25


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

Short breaks are weekend orientated and, because of that, securing mid-week occupancy is the greater concern for many providers.

Day visitors are responsible for the majority of visits but they only represent a smaller minority of spend – per day, staying visitors contribute £78.10 (serviced accommodation) or £30.20 (nonserviced accommodation) compared to £22.70 for day visitors and just 13.50 for visitors staying with friends or family.

Business tourism in on the increase, especially in the M6 corridor, but this still represents a small part of the Lake District’s tourism – just 7% in both the Lakes and Cumbria.

People visiting friends and relatives has been the largest growing tourism sector and is having a significant impact in places like Carlisle, although less so in the Lake District (13% of all visitors in Cumbria compared to just 5% in the Lake District stay with friends or relatives).

The population is generally getting older and post-family couples are a growing market. The over 55s still account for a small proportion of tourism trips in the UK but not so in the Lakes – 37% of all visitors to the Lake District are aged over 55.

The internet and budget airlines are having a dramatic impact on the transport and information/bookings infrastructure. In 1998, Low Cost Airlines accounted for 7 million passengers flying into or out of the UK30 - 5.6% of the total. This is expected to rise by over 300% by 2020 to 28.2 million passengers31.

“Activity Tourism” and “Eco Tourism” are growing, but are still just market niches and comparatively small niches at that. In reality, most of the people likely to visit Cumbria and the Lake District like a mixture of activity, culture, good food and so on32.

Key Future Drivers 3.51

There are a number of different trends that are expected to be key to the development of tourism in the Lake District and Cumbria as a whole over future years. These include: •

Discretionary income will increase and, therefore, people will have more money to spend on leisure.

Discretionary income will increase faster than leisure time (which may decrease) so people will be increasingly demanding when it comes to deciding how to spend it.

People will be better educated and want a broader range of high quality experiences – I.e. breaks that offer activities of various sorts will be in increasing demand.

The ABC1 socio-economic group will represent an increasingly dominant share of the population.

There will be more households without children.

There will be more single person households.

People will take more holidays, albeit shorter breaks.

It will be easier to get abroad and to other parts of the UK, especially by air – this will create both challenges (domestic customers will find it easier to go elsewhere) and opportunities

30

Note: This does not include passengers flying within the UK

31

Calculations use the ‘central’ level forecasts. Low Cost Airline forecasts to 2020 range from a ‘low’ of 24.5 million to a ‘high’ of 32.4 million passenger (a rise of between 250% and 363%)

32

Locum Destination Consulting, 2003

Ref: A/00124

Page 26


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] (people will find it easier to get to Cumbria – provided that the county does not lag in the provision of infrastructure). •

Long holidays taken in the UK will decrease.

Day trips will increase.

Visits to friends and relatives, especially by young people, will increase.

Business tourism will increase.

There will be increasing demand for high quality self-catering for 3-7 night breaks.

Congestion will increase, as will the desire to escape it.

The internet will become increasingly important for bookings.

Other technologies like WAP and Global Satellite Positioning will have a major impact on communications.

There will be increasing demand for the guaranteed quality offered by branded products but equally for the individuality of high quality independent products. There will however be less tolerance for independent product that does not match the quality of equivalent branded product. Individuality will not be an acceptable excuse for poor quality33.

3.52

The future trends in tourism and leisure markets have a number of explicit implications for Cumbria and the Lake District: •

Quality will be the key – quality in terms of the environment, marketing of the area, visitor services, accommodation and food.

Locations and facilities will be required that can cater for both business tourism and short breaks. Development of these facilities will be most appropriate along the M6 corridor.

High quality self catering facilities are essential for short breaks whilst high quality serviced accommodation will also be required for the growing pre- and post-family couple markets.

Cumbria is dominated by the independent sector.

It needs a fully functioning destination

management system that facilitates online booking to keep pace with branded hotel companies in other parts of the country34.

Summary of Issues •

Tourism is of great importance to the Lake District economy, contributing: ¾

£534 million GVA;

¾

12,700 FTE jobs;

¾

21,800 total jobs; and

¾

8.1 million visitors staying for 14.8 million days.

Tourism in the Lakes suffered severely during the 2001 FMD outbreak, but it has since undergone a fast and strong recovery.

33

Locum Destination Consulting, 2003

34

Locum Destination Consulting, 2003

Ref: A/00124

Page 27


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

The majority of visitors to the Lake District (92%) are from the UK, with 50% from the north of England. A further 15% live in the South East.

Most visitors live within a 2 hour drive of the Lakes.

Whilst less than 10% of visitors are from overseas, they tend to stay longer (an average of 5.4 days) and spend more (£227 per person).

The area covered by CTB attracts the least amount and proportion of overseas visitors compared to all other tourist board regions in England.

Numbers of overseas visitors have declined significantly since 1999.

72% of all visitors to the Lake District are day visitors.

Most staying visitors use serviced accommodation, although non-serviced accommodation use is on the rise and people staying here tend to stay for longer periods.

3% of all visitors stay in a “Second Home”.

There are 65,510 tourist beds in the Lake District. Although figures for other National Parks are not available, it is assumed that the levels elsewhere do not match up.

The most popular attraction in the Lake District is Windermere Lake Cruises in Ambleside – attracting 1.26 million visitors in 2002.

Even though the region may be perceived to offer visitors the beauty of the countryside, the majority of visitors go to the area to indulge in town-based activities, generally satisfying ‘creature comforts’ (food and drink; shopping; visiting attractions). The towns, therefore, have a large and important role in terms of tourism to the Lake District.

The Lake District is unique compared to other National Parks in that few others have settlements on the scale of the towns in the Lakes.

There are more pubs, restaurants, hotels and self-catering accommodation in the Lake District than would be expected considering its population and area coverage. Also, these tend to be of a much higher standard than the national average.

Ref: A/00124

Page 28


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

4.

Getting to and Travelling Around the Lake District

4.1

This section considers the main facts and trends in terms of accessing externally and then moving within the Lake District. The main external and internal links are summarised in the map below.

Map 4.1 Accessing the Lake District

M6/M74 and WCML north

Jn 40

Kendal

Jn 36

M6 and WCML south

Key: •

Good rail service

Good bus service

Limited rail service

Motorway

Ref: A/00124

Page 29

A66 east


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] The Current Situation - Getting to the Lake District 4.2

The private car is by far the most popular mode of transport used by visitors to get to the Lake District (more so even than for people visiting the rest of Cumbria) at 90%. The remainder of people travel to the National Park mainly travel by train, although small numbers also go by coach tour and regular bus and coach services. The estimated cost of a return journey to the Lake District has been estimated at £4035 although for day visitors the journey cost is estimated as only £27, reflecting both the fact that day visitors have originated from destinations closer to Cumbria and tend to travel by car – which is cheaper than using public or organised transport. Figure 4.1: Main Mode of Transport of Visitors to the Lake District, (%), 2002

%

Main Mode of Transport to the Lake District, 2002 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

e th O

R

C

eg

oa

ar C s/

r

Bu

u To

oa ch

Cumbria

r

ul

ch

in

an /V ar

a Tr

C

Lake District

Source: Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002

4.3

Residence: The main mode of transport used by tourists from overseas to get to Cumbria is obviously wildly different to the modes used by domestic visitors (i.e. mainly the private car). Overseas visitors account for the majority of the ‘other’ category in the chart above with the majority (79%) of them travelling by air whilst 17% travel by sea and 4% use the Channel Tunnel36. Current Links

4.4

Road Access: The creation of the M6 opened up access to the Lake District significantly enough to ensure that currently the majority of visitors are day visitors rather than staying visitors (72% compared to 28%). The A55 has had the same effect on Snowdonia – although to a much greater extent; opening the area up to such a degree that an even larger proportion of visitors to that National Park are now day trippers. The vast majority of visitors arrive by car and use their car to get around the Lake District.

35

Locum Destination Consulting, 2003

36

Those travelling by Channel Tunnel will also either travel by car or train

Ref: A/00124

Page 30


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 4.5

The M6 in Cumbria is not a particularly congested motorway, although increased congestion in the future around the North West conurbations may result in a decline in visitors to the National Park (currently the majority of visitors live within a 2 hour drive. If this is increased to 3 hours, it could have huge impacts on numbers prepared to travel. This will be especially evident for the day-tripper market). In the long term the cost of road travel may increase substantially, unless new reserves of oil are discovered or alternative fuels are used. This may limit access by road to the Lake District on cost terms.

4.6

Rail Access: Virgin Trains operate the two main long distance services that pass through the Lake District. There are approximately 23 trains a day that pass through the Lake District, in both directions. These services are: •

The West Coast Main Line between London Euston and Glasgow; and

Virgin Cross Country (Penzance to Edinburgh or Glasgow and Bournemouth or Brighton to Glasgow).

4.7

Both services stop at Oxenholme in the Lake District and Penrith, which is located just outside of the National Park. These are intercity services i.e. they stop at only a small number of stations, and hence take less time than local services would, although not all are direct. On average, a direct journey from London Euston to Oxenholme takes approximately three hours, and an indirect service (with one change) can take between three and three-quarter hours and four hours. The return journey takes a similar amount of time. Travelling from Glasgow to Oxenholme or back again takes just over two hours. Virgin Trains do not pass through the Lake District, stopping at other local stations, but the train operator First North Western currently runs a direct service from Manchester Airport to Windermere, meaning it is possible for both UK and overseas visitors to access the Lake District by public transport. This service takes a little over two hours.

4.8

It is also possible to get to Windermere from other areas in the North West by train, although not necessarily via a direct service: •

Manchester Oxford Road: Journeys take between 1:40 hours and 2:20 hours and there are a number of direct services (via Trans Pennine Express) although many services involve two changes.

Liverpool Lime Street: It takes up to two and a half hours to reach Windermere, with either one or two changes.

Chester: Journey times of between 2:15 hours and 3:45 hours are possible, with one or two changes necessary.

Preston: There are a number of direct services delivered by Trans Pennine Express from Preston to Windermere, with journey times of approximately one hour.

Carlisle: There are no direct services between Carlisle and Windermere. Services go via the Virgin Trains service (Carlisle to Oxenholme) and Trans Pennine Express (Oxenholme to Windermere).

Ref: A/00124

Page 31


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 4.9

Access to the west of the Lake District by car takes longer. The Cumbria Coastal train line could in theory take advantage of this (since it runs from Carnforth to the south east of the Lake District, through Barrow and the north through Copeland and Allerdale, along the coast line). At the present time, however this takes time due to a small number of services operating on this line (especially from Barrow north) and the fact that through much of Copeland and Allerdale, the track is a single line resulting in a very slow service. For example, the journey between Barrow and Workington, although a direct service, takes over one and a half hours. A direct trip between Carnforth and Workington takes 2:30 hours. Cumbria County Council is currently looking into the prospect of enhancing this service.

4.10

Air Access: As mentioned above, there is a direct train service from Manchester Airport to the Lake District, which enhances the ability of people to access the Lake District by air, even if the airport is still quite a distance away. There is no airport within the Lake District itself, although there is an airport at Carlisle (although this currently does not offer scheduled services). There is currently a study underway looking into the feasibility of further development at Carlisle Airport.

The Current Situation - Getting Around the Lake District Main modes of transport for visitors 4.11

Private transport is the main method of transport both when travelling to the region (83%) and for getting around (77%). In addition, reliance on private transport is greater during the busiest times - 80% of visitors travel around the Lake District by car in August compared to just 66% in June – adding to high levels of congestion and difficulties related to parking, especially within the main towns in the Lake District37. A further 10% of visitors travel around the Lake District by either public transport (6%) or by organised coach tours (4%). The lower percentages of people using both public and private transport to travel around the National Park than to the Park is made up by people who, once there, rely on walking to get around (10%). Figure 4.2: Main Mode of transport Used to travel Around the Lake District

90 80 70 60 %

50 40 30 20 10 0 Car

Public Trasnport

Coach Tour

Walking

Source: Locum Destination Consulting, 2003

37

Although the Cumbria Tourism Survey, 2002 does not identify visitors feeling that getting to or around the Lake District as a problem

Ref: A/00124

Page 32


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Strengths and Weaknesses of Public Transport Provision 4.12

Bus Services: Table 4.1 below illustrates a selection of information relating to the provision of local bus services within the Lake District. Whilst it does not give a picture of total provision, it does demonstrate that certain areas of the Lakes are better served than others by public transport, whilst most areas are not accessible by bus for employment.

4.13

For example, between Ambleside and Kendal (towns which are approximately 13 miles apart) there are 20 direct services in both directions every week day, and a number of other indirect routes are also available. In addition, these services run throughout the day and into the late evening. Similar services run along the A66 corridor between Penrith and Workington via Keswick. . Windermere and Keswick are quite well served by local bus services, although the last bus from Windermere is 17:03, meaning that people working in a “9 to 5” job or working late will probably be unable to return home if they live in Keswick. Also the earliest bus from Keswick each day is only at 09:30, further limiting employment options. There are no bus services between Windermere and towns to the south such as Ulverston/Grange, nor are there any direct services from Keswick to Maryport of Whitehaven on the West Coast. Outside the main corridors of the A66 and A591 there are very few bus services and certainly no bus services which could be relied upon to commute to work. Table 4.1: Local Bus Services in the Lake District Journey

Buses/D ay 11

First Bus 08:18 09:11

17:03 17:56

Between 53mins 1hr37mins

&

Keswick (BS) – Windermere (RS)

11

09:30 10:35

18:40 19:45

Between 1hr5mins

&

Penrith (BS) Keswick (BS) Workington Workington Keswick (BS) Penrith (BS) Kendal (RS) Penrith (BS)

– -

16**

16**

5.15–6.15– 6.55

2

10:50 12:20

12:00 13:29

Penrith (BS) Kendal (RS)

2

10:30 11:37

11:15 – 14:09 (inc. 1 change at Keswick

Between 1hr7mins & 2hr54mins

Ambleside Kendal (BS)

20

07:00 07:39

23:18 23:57

Between 59mins

39mins

&

Kendal (BS) Ambleside

-

20

07:04 07:47

21:55 22:43

Between 57mins

43mins

&

Windermere (RS) – Keswick (BS)

Last Bus

Time Taken

19.15-20.1220.55 –

Passes Through*

1hr

40 mins Penrith to Keswick; and 1 hour Keswick to Workington 1 hour Workington to Keswick and 40 mins Keswick to Penrith 1hr30mins

Troutbeck Ambleside Grasmere Thirlspot Thirlspot Grasmere Ambleside Troutbeck Cockermouth Threlkeld Cockermouth Threlkeld Tebay Shap Thrimby Clifton Clifton Thrimby Shap Tebay Troutbeck Windermere Staveley Staveley Windermere Troutbeck

Source: Cumbria County Council Journey Planner Note: Data relates to direct Tuesday services (similar services are offered on other week days); * Does not include all stops on the route; RS = Rail Station; BS = Bus Station; ** excluding village stopping services

4.14

Ref: A/00124

Page 33


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 4.15

Whilst bus travel for employment purposes is not particularly good in the Lakes, the service for visitors is actually much better. The Stagecoach network runs along the main corridors and even on some minor routes. This is extremely well used all year round (although still marginal) and is very well publicised with a range on tickets available. Growth rates are at around 5-7% per annum. In addition, most of the network in central areas is commercial (indicating that the market is operating competently). For certain groups of visitors, including overseas visitors, the network is vitally important. There are also specialist service providers such Mountain Goat and the ferry services along and around the main Lakes (Derwent Water, Windermere, Coniston Water and Ullswater).

4.16

The Need for Cars. The strengths and weaknesses of public transport provision can partially be illustrated through the modes of transport that local people use to travel around the area. Notably, fewer people travel to work by public transport in the Lake District (2.5% compared to 6.3% in Cumbria and 15.4% in England), indicating a much poorer public transport system in the National Park than nationally (and replicating the above discussion). This situation, however, is of course common to many rural areas in Great Britain. All National Park area have low levels of public transport usage for to travel to work, ranging from a high of 3.5% in both the Peak District and the Norfolk Broads to just 0.7% in Northumberland. Figure 4.3: Travel to work by Public Transport (%), 2001 Travel to Work by Public Transport, 2001 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 % 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Lake District

Cumbria

North West

Underground, Metro, Light Rail, Tram

Train

Bus, Mini Bus, Coach

Taxi, Mini Cab

Source: 2001 Census Special Workplace Statistics

Ref: A/00124

Page 34

England


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure: 4.4: Travel to work by Public Transport (%), 2001 Households that Use Public Trasnport, 2001 60.00 50.00 40.00 % 30.00

20.00 10.00 0.00

on

hi

a Be

D

ds

al

rs

es

oo M

t

ct tri

re

is

k

c tri

t

s a ni oa C do i re ow sh Sn e ok br ns co

m Pe

ec Br

s rk Yo

D

is

r Yo

D

r

r

oa Br

k

th

e Th

or

ke

oo

ia

oo

br

es W

nd

tm

a Pe

N

La

m Ex

ar

um

la

th or

D

C

N

g En

Hhlds that use public transport - without a car

t

Hhlds that use public transport - with a car Total Hhlds that use Public Transport

Source: 2001 Census Special Workplace Statistics

4.17

In addition, car ownership is much higher in the Lake District than in Cumbria, the North West or England, a result of the fact that public transport is of a lower standard in the National Park than in more urban areas elsewhere. 85% of households in the Lake District have access to at least one car (compared to only 70% in the North West); 39% of households in the Lake District have access to two or more cars (compared to 26% in the North West) which suggests the need for two members of the household to travel to work/shop etc by private rather than public transport is much higher in the Lakes.

Past Trends Access to the Lake District by Train 4.18

In the past access to and from the Lake District by rail has been influenced via the loss of rail links between Penrith and Keswick, the general run down of local services and problems associated with the West Coast Main Line. The Strategic Rail Authority, whilst it has plans to update the WCML, does not support the reintroduction of the Penrith to Keswick service due to lack of funding. Accessing up the Lake District by Car

4.19

The development of the M6 motorway through the Midlands, North West and Cumbria and growth in car ownership has opened up the Lake District to more people, able to reach the National Park in less time than before. There has also been a considerable fall in the effective real cost of motoring (7% 1980 to 200238). This has had a number of effects upon the Lake District economy and infrastructure, especially the importance to the Lake District of day visitors39 who generally travel by private car. Day visitors both spend less on average than staying visitors, and therefore more car journeys are needed to create the same level of spend.

38

Transport Trends, Department of Transport, 2002 edition Figure 2.3

39

Day visits comprise 73% of visitor numbers to the Lake District

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 4.20

Levels of traffic congestion across Great Britain have increased dramatically in recent years – between 1976 and 1986, total traffic on our roads increased by an average of 3% per annum (whilst car use increased by 3.3%). From 1986 to 1996 traffic increased at an even faster rate of 3.3% (although car traffic slowed slightly, increasing by 3.2%). Since 1996 to 2001, growth rates fell back to 3% (and car traffic growth, although still increasing, fell to 2.8%40).

Key Future Drivers Changes in Costs of Road Travel 4.21

The change in the monetary cost of traveling by car is perceived to have increased by most people. In fact the overall cost of motoring (including purchase, maintenance, petrol and oil, and tax and insurance) has remained at or below its 1980 level in real terms, although the real cost of fuel is now 6 per cent higher than in 1980, despite falling by 11% since 2000.

4.22

In contrast to overall motoring costs, public transport fares have risen in real terms over the last 20 years. In 2002, bus and coach fares were 33 per cent higher and rail fares 38 per cent higher than in 1980. British drivers are currently taxed at around the European average and pay similar costs to drivers in Finland, Denmark, Ireland, Italy and France. However for a 1000cc car, the UK has the fifth lowest ownership tax in the European Union, paying less than either France or Italy41. In fact, the relative cost of owning and driving a car in the UK is getting cheaper42 - and the Government forecasts that costs will fall a further 20% over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, public transport fares are rising and continue to attract a lower subsidy than elsewhere in Europe.

4.23

Congestion charging and motorway tolling are possible factors which might increase the cost of travelling by car in the future. In 2000, 35 local authorities stated in their 5-year Local Transport Plans that they were interested in adopting a congestion charging scheme in their area. So far eight areas have made progress towards the implementation of such schemes43 although only one involves motorway tolling – the new M6 Toll Road in the West Midlands.

4.24

Whilst further Motorway Tolling has not been set out at the present time, the Commission for Integrated Transport in its report “Paying for Roads”44 suggested a number of road tolls that could be introduced. It would apply to about 10% of the motorway network and other trunk roads and would apply to those sections and those times of day, mostly affected by congestion. The average weekday charge on motorways would be 3.5 pence per mile for cars (compared with 4.3 pence per mile on other roads), and the total annual revenue raised would be around £1.1 billion. Overall, it is expected that such motorway charging would lead to:

4.25

Total Motorway traffic falling by 2.6%;

Average travel times in the charging period falling by over 3%; and

Congestion falling by over one third.

Typical motorway charges for a car at the busiest times of the day are suggested as: •

London to Rugby (M1 – approximately 80 miles): £3.40

Birmingham to Manchester (M6 – approximately 90 miles): £7.40

40

National Road Traffic Forecasts (Great Britain) 1997; Department of Transport

41

UK Commission for Integrated Transport, 2002

42

UK Commission for Integrated Transport, 2002

43

London, Durham, Edinburgh, Nottingham, Bristol, Leeds, Cardiff and the West Midlands

44

February 2002

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

4.26

London to Oxford (M40 – approximately 55 miles): £4.50

Liverpool to Leeds (M62/M60 – approximately 75 miles): £5.70

Maidstone to Luton (M20/M25/M1 – approximately 80 miles): £9.50

The added costs, therefore, of getting to the Lake District from certain key locations could potentially have an impact on the numbers of people willing to make the journey. For example a car journey from London would cost around £24 in toll fees for the round trip45 (although this is considerably less than the current cost of fuel for the round trip). Road Congestion

4.27

The UK now has some of the most congested roads in Europe, due in part to car ownership levels (linked to increased economic growth and prosperity and a shift in freight from rail to road), low levels of public transport infrastructure investment and usage (compared to most other European countries) and the sheer number of people living in the country. Congestion levels are forecast to grow by between 11% and 20% over the next ten years whilst on the strategic road network, congestion could rise by up to 15% and in conurbations and large urban areas congestion could rise by between 9% and 20%46.

4.28

The “West Midlands to North West Multi-Modal Study”47 aims to ensure that the M6 retains its vital strategic role supporting the national economy. The study looked in particular at the role that rail and public transport could play in easing the problems on the M6, and at the impact of the M6 Toll Road. The study was carried out in parallel with the West Coast Main Line capacity study. The work identified that the problems on the M6 are severe - and current trends set to get worse: •

Commuter traffic currently is growing by around three per cent every year around Manchester48. Average speeds on the M6 around Manchester can be as low as 19 mph whilst around Birmingham they often fall to just 17 mph. An intention of the M6 Toll road around Birmingham is to reduce average journey times from 79 minutes to 34 minutes at the busiest times.

Traffic on the M6 is around 100,000 vehicles a day. This is set to increase to 150,000 in some places by 2015 if present trends continue. Any small incident already causes heavy congestion and long delays. Around 20-30% of traffic is heavy goods vehicles.

Congestion means poor reliability and increased costs, particularly to businesses.

On the railways, the West Coast Main Line upgrade will potentially increase passenger capacity by up to 50%. However, problems remain, particularly in the Manchester and Birmingham areas, where there is a serious conflict between long-distance passenger, freight and local commuter traffic suggesting that the effective increase in rail capacity for longer distant trips may not be satisfied, hence not aiding motorway congestion.

4.29

The Multi Modal Study has considered a wide range of options to address these problems, including motorway widening. In December 2002 the Department of Transport announced a £5.5 billion package of road improvements. This will include the widening of the M6 between Birmingham and Manchester (junction 11a to 19) and the M40 (including the A40 from its boundary with the Greater London Authority (GLA) and the entire M40 to the junction with M42) between London and Birmingham to four lanes in an attempt to reduce congestion.

45

London to Oxford along the M40 and then Birmingham to Manchester on the M6

46

UK Commission for Integrated Transport, 2002

47

Part of the Governments Ten Year Transport Plan 2000-2010

48

Manchester Online

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Future Prospects for Rail 4.30

WCML Improvements: The Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) has set out how it intends to upgrade the WCML in the report, “West Coast Main Line Strategy: Refreshing a Prime National Asset”49. This document states that by 2008 the infrastructure will be provided to enable train services along the route to reach 125 mph throughout the trunk sections of the London to Birmingham / Manchester / Liverpool / Glasgow route. This will result in substantial journey time improvements and route capacity will permit an increase in the frequency of services.

4.31

In addition, a more balanced use of line capacity has been a significant factor in enabling a resilient timetable to be developed with adequate capacity for both trunk freight and long distance passenger services. Once the upgrades are complete (2007/8) there will be capacity for the following indicative maximum hourly frequencies on a week day for long distance passengers to/from London. Table 4.2: WCML Train Frequencies London to/from Birmingham Manchester Liverpool Preston Scotland Source: SRA, 2003

4.32

Peak 4 3 1-2 1 1

Off-Peak 4 2 1 Every 2hr 1

Evening 2 1 1 1 -

In addition to extra trains, the speed of the services is also expected to increase. From London to Carlisle train times will decrease from 3 hours 41 minutes to 3 hours 7 minutes on the fast services and from 4 hours 4 minutes to 3 hours 7 minutes on normal services – a reduction of 34 minutes and 53 minutes respectively. Table 4.3: Indicative Journey Times on the WCML London to/from Birmingham (fast) Birmingham

2002 Time 1h39m 1h43m

Stops 1 3

Winter 2004 Time Stops 1h23m 1 1h28m 3

2005 Time 1h22m 1h26m

Stops 1 3

Manchester (fastest)

N/A

N/A

2h04m

1

2h03m

1

Manchester (fast via Stoke) Manchester (via Stoke)

N/A

N/A

2h08m

2

2h06m

2

2h41m

4

2h15m

4

2h14m

4

Carlisle (fast)

3h41m

2

3h20m

1

3h12m

1

Carlisle

4h04m

8

3h48m

8

3h39m

8

Source: SRA, 2003

49

June 2003

Ref: A/00124

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2007-8 Time Ih18m 1h23 m 1h57 m 2h02 m 2h10 m 3h07 m 3h34 m

Stops 1 3 1 2 4 1 8


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 4.33

Although figures for travel between Manchester and Carlisle, and Birmingham and Carlisle are not given, assuming that the trains travelling to Manchester and Birmingham will continue on to Carlisle, it is possible to work out changes to these services also. Travel times between Birmingham and Carlisle50 are expected to reduce by 2007/8 by 9 minutes, whilst between Manchester and Carlisle they will actually increase, albeit by only a minute. This shows that the majority of the improvements will take place from London through to the Mersey Belt area of the North West and relatively little will alter north of Manchester (although times between Carlisle and Glasgow will fall by 14 minutes indicating improvements works in Scotland).

4.34

In a Lake District context, therefore, the WCML improvements are likely to have a significant impact on access to the National Park from London (and parts of the South East). However, long distance rail access from the Midlands, North West and other parts of the UK will remain largely unchanged or just modestly enhanced. Local Services

4.35

Cumbria is reasonably well served by the rail network compared with other areas of similarly sparse population. There are 48 stations in the county. The Lake District National Park area, however, has few local rail services. Windermere is connected to the WCML (which skirts along the eastern edge of the LDNP) at Oxenholme via the Windermere Branch Line, although currently this is a single track rail line. Also, Dalegarth is linked to the west coast Cumbria Coastal Railway at Ravenglass through the Eskdale Rail Line.

4.36

One aim of the Cumbria Transport Plan is to “offer alternative modes of transport to the car” within the Lake District, which could potentially include rail improvements. Out of the 25 transport priorities for the Lake District, four are specifically associated with rail: •

Windermere Train and Bus Station Improvements;

Windermere to North Yorkshire Sunday Rail Service;

Windermere Branch Line Upgrade to Twin Track;

Cumbria Coastal Railway Improvements.

4.37

A feasibility study undertaken into the Windermere Branch Line recommended a programme to double the frequency of the existing service through the introduction of passing loops and signals on the existing line. It is expected that if these developments go ahead passenger numbers could increase by between 500 and 1,000 per day.

4.38

The prospects for funding for revenue support, replacement investment and new development over the next 10 years are not good. The priorities for the SRA are completion of the WCML upgrade and improvement to South East based services. Support for regional railways is not a priority at present. The future development and funding of local railways is not known at present. The SRA is looking for a move towards “Community Railways”.

Air Travel and Increased Competition from Low Cost Airlines 4.39

50

Increasing levels of air travel – for both leisure and business purposes – out of, into and within the UK have been witnessed over the past few decades and this trend is expected to continue. The report from the Department of Transport “Air Traffic Forecasts for the United Kingdom 2000” states that in total 160 million people travelled by air from, to or within the UK in 1998. By 2020, air travel will have risen to between 348 million and 461 million passengers (an increase of between 118%

Using times for the slower services

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] and 188%). The type of air travel that could potentially have the most influence on tourism to the Lake District is the continued rise of the Low Cost Airlines. In recent years these carriers have begun to offer UK consumers cheap international travel, hence significantly reducing the cost of international tourism. It is now possible, for instance to travel from the Mersey belt region51 of the North West to Spain at very low cost52. This destination has a number of potential advantages over the Lake District including a better guarantee of good weather and the availability of cheaper accommodation as well as offering a high quality walking environment, hence allowing some tourists a potentially similar ‘holiday experience’. 4.40

In 1998, Low Cost Airlines accounted for 7 million passengers flying into or out of the UK53 - 5.6% of the total. This is expected to rise by over 300% by 2020 to 28.2 million passengers54 and is expected to increase its share of the market also – to 8.5% of total international air traffic. Over the forecast period (1998-2020) Low Cost Airline traffic will grow at an average of 6.6% per annum compared to 4.3% for annual average air traffic growth in general over the same time period. Indeed, Low Cost Airline traffic is likely to be the faster growing component of air travel. In addition, growth to 2005 will be in the region of 15% per annum due to the continued introduction of new routes, and therefore, the expansion of options for potential UK tourists to holiday cheaply away from UK destinations as well as increased accessibility to overseas markets for short break (the mainstay of Lake District tourism). Table 4.4: Forecasts of UK Low Cost Airline Traffic (millions)* 1998

2005

2010

2015

Business 1.7 4.7 5.4 6.2 Leisure 5.2 14.0 16.1 18.5 Total 7.0 18.7 21.5 24.6 Source: Air Traffic Forecasts for the United Kingdom 2000 * Using ‘central’ level forecasts

4.41

2020 7.0 21.1 28.2

Change 1998-2020 No. % 5.3 311.8 15.9 305.8 21.2 302.9

Obviously, these Low Cost Airlines also bring in tourists to the UK from abroad. The likely impact of these additional tourists on the Lake District is expected to be slim since it will depend on a number of external factors including trends in road and rail infrastructure and levels of usage since accessing the Lake District from abroad also involves travel within the UK55. Also increased oversees access to the Lakes via a Low Cost Airline is subject to whether a carrier bases itself at Carlisle Airport (or possibly the expansion of Blackpool Airport). This would depend on the strengthening of the runway at Carlisle Airport which is unlikely to happen in the near future.

Summary of Issues •

The private car is the most popular mode of transport used by visitors to get to the Lake District (90%).

The creation of the M6 opened up access to the Lake District so much that now the majority of visitors are day visitors rather than staying visitors (72% compared to 28%).

51

A key location for visitors to the Lake District

52

It is possible to get a return ticket from Liverpool to Madrid or Malaga for less than £50 return with Easyjet if booked in advance.

53

Note: This does not include passengers flying within the UK

54

Calculations use the ‘central’ level forecasts. Low Cost Airline forecasts to 2020 range from a ‘low’ of 24.5 million to a ‘high’ of 32.4 million passenger (a rise of between 250% and 363%)

55

The closest airports to the Lake District with a Low Cost carrier are Newcastle (100 miles), Manchester (80 miles) and Liverpool (86 miles)

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

The M6 in Cumbria is not particularly congested, although increased congestion in the future around the North West conurbations may result in a decline in visitors to the National Park.

There are approximately 23 trains a day that pass by the Lake District on the WCML, in both directs.

A direct journey from London Euston to Oxenholme takes approximately three hours, and an indirect service (with one change) can take between three and three-quarter and four hours.

It is possible to get to Windermere from other areas in the North West by train, although not necessarily via a direct service: ¾

Manchester Oxford Road: Journeys take between 1:40 hours and 2:20 hours. Some are direct (via Trans Pennine Express) although many services involve two changes.

¾

Carlisle: There are no direct services between Carlisle and Windermere. Services go via the Virgin Trains service (Carlisle to Oxenholme) and Trans Pennine Express (Oxenholme to Windermere).

There is no airport within the Lake District. There is an airport in Carlisle although it does not currently offer scheduled services.

Private transport is the main method of transport both when travelling to the region (83%) and for getting around (77%). Reliance on private transport is greater during the busiest times adding to high levels of congestion and difficulties related to parking, especially within the main towns in the Lake District.

Certain areas of the Lakes are better served than others by public transport; whilst most areas are not accessible by bus for employment bus travel for visitors is much better.

Fewer people travel to work by public transport in the Lake District (2.5% compared to 6.3% in Cumbria and 15.4% in England), indicating a much poorer public transport system in the National Park than nationally.

Car ownership is much higher in the Lake District than in Cumbria, the North West or England, implying again that public transport is of a lower standard in the National Park than elsewhere. 85% of households in the Lake District have access to at least one car

Motoring costs have stayed constant over the last 20 years, while bus and rail fares have risen by 80%. Since 2000, motoring costs have fallen by 2.8% in real terms while costs of bus and rail travel have actually increased by 1.4%.

The added costs of getting to the Lake District from certain locations if motorway tolling is introduced could have a major impact on the numbers of people willing to make the journey. For Example:

¾

A visitor from London would have to pay £11.90 in toll fees;

¾

A tourist from Liverpool would pay approximately £1.06 in toll fees.

The UK has the most congested roads in Europe. Congestion levels are forecast to grow by between 11% and 20% over the next ten years – on the strategic road network, congestion will rise by up to 15% and in conurbations and large urban areas it will rise by 9-20%.

Traffic on the M6 (West Midlands to North West) is around 100,000 vehicles a day. This is set to increase to 150,000 in some places by 2015 if present trends continue

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

WCML improvements will result in faster journey times in the South East of England and in Scotland. These improvements are have the potential to make access easier for the South East and overseas markets.

In 1998, Low Cost Airlines accounted for 7 million passengers flying into or out of the UK - 5.6% of the total. This is expected to rise by over 300% by 2020 to 28.2 million passengers and is expected to increase its share of the market also – to 8.5% of total international air traffic.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

5.

The Lake District’s Environment and Land Based Economy

5.1

This section summarises some of the key features and issues of the natural and built environment of the Lake District based in large part on work carried out by Land Use Consultants (LUC).

Current Situation The role of Land based Industries in the economy 5.2

A little over half of the National Park (55%, or an area of approximately 126,500 ha), was registered as agricultural land in 200256. This area is essentially unchanged since 1990. This does not include common land, which comprises a further 52,621 ha. For Cumbria as a whole, woodland areas over 0.1 ha accounted for 9.5% of the land area at the last inventory (in the late 1990s). About a third of woodland greater than 2 ha is owned by or leased to the Forestry Commission.

5.3

There were 1,727 registered agricultural holdings in the National Park in 2002, of which between a third and a half are thought to be non-commercial landholdings or parts of larger economic units. On this basis, there are around 1,000 commercial farm holdings (plus or minus 150 depending on how these are defined)57. Three quarters of commercially-managed units are classed as beef and sheep farms while one in seven are dairy farms, the remainder being mixed cropping, horticultural or pig and poultry farms.

5.4

The total number of holdings has increased by 21% since 1990 as (typically) medium-sized farms are let or sold in parcels, with smallholdings separated from the main farm. Farms larger than 100 ha now account for 71% of all farmland. Holdings smaller than 5 ha have almost trebled in number since 1990 but still only account for less than 2% of all farmland (Figure 5.1).

5.5

Just over half of the agricultural land in the Lake District is owner-occupied and the remainder rented58. The major landowner and landlord is the National Trust which owns a quarter of the area of the National Park (48,593 ha); 3,238 ha of this is woodland with almost all of the remainder being tenanted farmland in 93 farm tenancies or open moorland/common land. Other major landowners include Cumbria County Council which has a county farms estate of small farms. The National Park Authority own or have management responsibility for around 9,000 ha.

5.6

The agricultural sector continues to make a small but important direct input to the Lake District’s economy: •

According to the 2001 Census 1,600 residents of the LDNP were employed in agriculture (8% of all those in employment), although DEFRA statistics suggest that 2,870 people worked on farms in 2002 (of which 2,200 were farmers and family). The difference may be due to a small amount of in-commuting to work on farms plus the fact that farming may not be the main occupations for many of these.

56

The agricultural statistics in this section are based on Defra’s June 2002 Defra Agricultural Census, with trends indicated from 1990 to 2002. Forestry statistics are from the Forestry Commission’s National Inventory of Woodland and Trees (2002).

57

Defra allocates each holding to a farm type on the basis of its estimated financial outputs (‘standard gross margin’). A third of all holdings in the Lake District are not classified to a particular farm type, but placed in the ‘other’ category, usually because the area of crops and numbers of livestock are small. These ‘other’ holdings, most of which are less than 5ha in size can be thought of as non-farming units where the land is either rented out to others or managed for recreational or conservation purposes.

58

Defra June 2002 Agricultural Census.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 5.1: Changes in Farming Area LDNP by Size of Holding 80% 70%

1990

60%

2002

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Less than 5 ha

5 to <20 ha

20 to < 50 ha 50 to <100 ha

100 ha or greater

Source: Agricultural Census, Defra •

In 2002 LUC estimate that total farmgate income generated by agricultural holdings in the Lake District National Park area was £59m, of which 57% (£33.6m) comes from the sale of agricultural products (livestock and milk), 16% (£9.3m from commodity based production subsidies from the CAP and 27% (£16.1m) from area-based CAP payments. The receipts to farmers from CAP Pillar II (rural development) are and have been for some years rather more important than those from production-related subsidies.

Clearly income received by farmers is greater than this figure due to non-farm activities which are carried out. There is, however, no comprehensive or reliable data on this. A small but increasing number of farm businesses are involved in adding value to farm production through processing, and marketing programmes, notably Cumbria Fellbred, are assisting farmers to access markets and maintain a margin on their product. The NWDA funded Distinctly Cumbria initiative is also identifying opportunities for adding value to, and branding, land based products in Cumbria but, as yet, has relatively modest penetration.

There is no hard data on the age profile of farmers and their staff in the Lake District59. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the age profile is increasing and the number of younger farmers succeeding to family businesses is declining. A study for Defra in 200360 found no clear agreement about the level of succession within farming businesses in the Lake District. In one

59

This is notoriously difficult to define in family farming partnerships, where the older generation may continue as partners into their 70s and 80s but where nominal control over day to day decisions has passed to a younger generation.

60

Defra, 2004. An assessment of the impacts of hill farming in England on the economic, environmental and social sustainability of the uplands and more widely. A study by the Institute of European Environmental Policy, Land Use Consultants and GHK Consulting.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] area south west of Coniston, farmers reported that, while around half of farms a generation ago had a full-time successor within the family, now it is only around a fifth. The National Trust suggests that about a third of their tenanted farms have a younger generation who are interested in taking over the tenancy. However, with farmers accepting that part-time working and farm amalgamations will be the norm in the future, it is not likely that a shortage of farmers will, on its own, be a limiting factor in the land management economy (though shortage of appropriate skills and low incomes may well be). 5.7

Clearly FMD had a profound mostly short term impact on farming during 2001 in Cumbria generally as well as parts of the Lake District. Although Cumbria was heavily hit by FMD, losing a third of its grazing livestock through the culls61, the Lake District escaped the worst of the outbreak to the north and east of the National Park. Nevertheless there were significant impacts both on the livestock sector and on the tourism industry. Those whose livestock were culled received compensation but this did not extend to other farmers whose normal farming activities were curtailed by movement controls, nor to the tourism industry which was heavily impacted.

5.8

However, the long term impacts of the epidemic have been less significant on the local agricultural economy. The cull of animals to control the disease and deal with the animal welfare implications of the ban on livestock movement was not the catalyst of large numbers of farm sales that some predicted. The compensation paid to farmers allowed them to restructure debts and most have restocked, though as the data on the number of sheep show, at a lower stocking density. The effects of FMD throughout the rural economy are still being felt, and adjustment is being assisted through the Rural Regeneration Cumbria project. Diversification

5.9

The most common forms of non-farming income are provision of accommodation and occasionally other services to tourism, contracting work and other off-farm work such as the farmer and/or spouse commuting to work in a neighbouring town. There is no comprehensive source of information on relative numbers of different farm diversification activities or the proportion of farm income derived from such activities.

5.10

In terms of projects receiving public funding, Defraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Rural Development Service has funded about 40 projects developed by farms and rural businesses within the Lake District. These include tourism projects, two large meat processing and retail projects and several environmental projects. The combined value of the assistance was in the order of ÂŁ1.8 million in 2002 and 2003, assuming an average of ÂŁ45,000 allocated per project62.

5.11

The provision of on-farm accommodation has been a popular farm diversification option in the past, typically through providing B&B accommodation in the farmhouse or converted buildings or providing self-catering accommodation. Cumbria Tourist Board data show that the market for accommodation provision on farms is now becoming saturated. Farmers are being encouraged to focus on raising the overall standard of accommodation, developing activities that add value to the accommodation enterprise (such as guided walks or bird watching) and linking their business to other local businesses and activities.

61

Centre for Rural Economy (2002). Coping with crisis in Cumbria: Consequences of foot and mouth disease.

62

Information from Defra RDS staff.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Valuing the Environment 5.12

The contribution of the Lake District’s environment towards the economy of the area is clearly significant. Various measures can be used to assess the value of the environment in economic terms, including: •

Calculating the amount people spend (including the costs of travel) when visiting the area as tourists.

Asking people how much they would be willing to pay to preserve the environment, or to be able to visit the area.

Measuring the amount of money that is actually spent in protecting the environment (e.g. for treating sewage or enhancing the environment through agri-environment schemes).

5.13

Recent work for the National Trust63, which owns about a quarter of the Lake District’s land, assessed the extent to which the existence of National Trust properties was one of the motivations for people visiting Cumbria. 6.5% of respondents said that this was their main motivation or one of the main motivations and a further 31% said that it was a minor motivation. On this basis the study calculated that the National Trust supports between 2,300 and 4,000 tourism jobs, including indirect and induced effects. While the study covered the whole of Cumbria rather than just the Lake District, most of the National Trust’s properties in Cumbria are located in the Lake District. To the extent that the National Trust’s properties can be considered an ‘environmental’ motivation these figures give some indication of the economic importance of the environment.

5.14

The National Trust study also asked visitors how much they would be willing to pay for access to Cumbria, in the hypothetical situation that access fees were required. Of the sample, 6% were willing to pay less than £5, 15% willing to pay £5 and 32% willing to pay £10 or more. It is accepted that information on peoples intentions, obtained from survey based studies of this kind, may not be good predictors of peoples’ actual behaviour.

5.15

Actual (rather than hypothetical) willingness to pay is demonstrated by the Visitor Payback Scheme, operated by the Lake District Tourism and Conservation Partnership. This enables visitors to make a voluntary contribution towards environmental maintenance and improvement such as work on footpaths. Tourism businesses also contribute to specific projects in their locality. In 2000-01 the Partnership contributed £70,000 to National Park Authority and National Trust conservation projects.

5.16

The role of forestry as an economic driver is significant in the Lake District over and above commercial logging and forestry. Research for the Forestry Commission64 suggests that forest related expenditure associated with tourism day visits is of the order of £2.3m, equating to more than 3% of total UK tourism expenditure. In the Lake District the report suggests that 12% of total tourism expenditure could be considered to be “forest associated”. Environmental Pressures

5.17

There was widespread agreement from consultees that the Lake District’s main economic sector of tourism benefits significantly from the high environmental quality of the area (landscape, air, water and biodiversity). This is borne out by the study of the economic impact of the National Trust referred to above. This is as much through the image it provides to the Lake District as an area of to visit, as to the more specific environmentally related activities such as hill walking. This environment

63

SQW Limited (2001). Valuing our Environment: The Economic Benefit of the National Trust’s Work in Cumbria. SQW Limited with Land Use Consultants and System Three.

64

Forestry Commission (2003) Forests’ Role in Tourism

Ref: A/00124

Page 46


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] is under pressure from a variety of sources including the impacts of the visitors themselves, landbased industries, developments with high visual impact and the potential threat of climate change. Pressures on land-based ecosystems, the historic and cultural environment 5.18

The National Park is within the Cumbria Fells and Dales Natural Area, as defined by English Nature. Around 16% of the National Park is designated as Sites of Special Scientific Interest, including several large areas of open fell. For the County as a whole, English Nature has recorded 43% of the SSSI area as being in adverse condition for biodiversity, with overgrazing the major cause of this65. Figure 5.2: Agricultural land use designations

Figure 5.3. Environmental designations

65

Data from English Natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s SSSI condition assessment data

Ref: A/00124

Page 47


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 5.19

Outside the protected sites, there is continuing small scale habitat loss and impoverishment. While agricultural improvement and intensification remains an issue over large areas of fell and in-bye land, there is growing concern about the abandonment of some areas of fell, particularly in relation to the decoupling of agricultural support (see Section 5.1 below). Should abandonment occur on a large scale there would be changes to the landscape from encroachment of scrub and forest. While this would benefit some plant species and wildlife it would impact on other species and alter the visual panoramas that most visitors and local people associate with the area. This situation requires monitoring so that any trend to land abandonment is managed and monitored to avoid negative impacts on the environment and tourist industry.

5.20

Visitor pressure is also causing footpath erosion in some areas which is visually unattractive, reduces accessibility for walkers and can contribute to water pollution. In terms of the historic environment, neglect and inappropriate development affecting archaeological sites, stone walls and vernacular buildings are seen as the main threats. Pressures on water ecosystems

5.21

Point source pollution from failed slurry, manure or silage stores or dirty water spreading systems on farms are generally rare, but where they occur they can be catastrophic in terms of water quality in the streams and rivers. There is also heavy pressure on sewage treatment systems in the summer which leads to occasional overloads or failures and demands for water abstraction from the lakes and rivers to supply surrounding settlements and industries.

5.22

The Bassenthwaite Lake Restoration Project was established in 2002 by the Lake District Still Waters Partnership66 as a pilot project to improve lake water quality. It aims to address diffuse pollution from farming and pollution from settlements and the tourist industry, through a co-operative approach emphasising the mutual benefits to all sectors from improved water quality and biodiversity. If successful this model may be applied more widely both in the Lake District and more widely across the UK. Renewable energy

5.23

Although there are no large-scale wind power and few hydroelectric installations within the Lake District, several are located on its boundaries and there are various others being considered. The established renewable energy projects within Cumbria as a whole include landfill gas sites and 11 operational wind farms67. In addition, as yet unimplemented planning permissions exist for one new wind farm, two site extensions and one re-powering scheme (the replacement of small turbines with larger machines). On the assumption that these consents are implemented there would be a further 17.28 MW of installed capacity in the County. Eight wind farms have been refused planning permission within Cumbria primarily on the grounds of landscape and visual impacts. Figure 5.5 shows the location of the main renewable developments in existence or potentially likely to happen in and around the Lake District.

5.24

Table 5.1 shows those wind farm schemes surrounding the Lake District National Park where there is currently a planning application â&#x20AC;&#x201C; there are other potential schemes where no formal planning application has been submitted. By far the largest is the proposed scheme at Winash near Tebay, just outside the LDNP boundary with 27 115-metre tall turbines proposed. The scheme will be subject to a public inquiry in 2004 and has received objections from the LDNPA and Cumbria County Council.

66

The National Park Authority, the Environment Agency, English Nature, United Utilities and the National Trust together with other agencies and research institutes.

67

Cumbria County Council, 2003. Renewable Energy Development in Cumbria â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Identifying the Potential.

Ref: A/00124

Page 48


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 5.5: Location of Renewable Energy Schemes

Source: Land Use Consultant database

Ref: A/00124

Page 49


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 5.1. Wind farm proposals outside the Lake District National Park boundary DNC Capacity MW

â&#x20AC; 

Site Name

Site Address District Planning Comments Application Status

Whinash Wind Farm, Cumbria

Bretherdale Tebay Cumbria

Eden

Winscales Phase II

Winscales, Workington, Cumbria

Allerdale Application approved

There is a planning variation pending to upgrade the existing 11 wind farm turbines from 600kW to 850kW machines. Grid connection issues will determine how early the extension to the project will be commissioned.

1.63

Kirksanton Kirksanton Copeland Application approved Airfield (Haverigg Airfield Part of second Extension) Hemplands Wind Farm Farm Haverigg Millom Cumbria

An application to upgrade five existing 225kW turbines with four 850kW machines (50m hub height- all NonNFFO) was approved on 15/08/02. The developer planned to begin construction during Summer 2003, however, construction of the replacement turbines has yet to commence.

1.5

Wharrels Hill Wind Farm, Cumbria

Wharrels Hill Bothel Cumbria

Allerdale Application approved

An application for eight 1.3MW turbines was approved at appeal on 19/06/02. The local authority has been in discussions with the developer over the conditions attached to the approval. Construction has yet to commence.

4.04

Boltons New Houses

Boltons New Houses Nr. Wigton Cumbria

Allerdale Application submitted

Application submitted for 3 wind turbines was submitted on 4/9/03. As of the 18/12/03, the application had been deferred as the application did not contain all the necessary information. The applicant is in the process of preparing a Landscape Impact Study.

1.67

Harlock Hill

Harlock Hill South Application Pennington Nr. Lakeland withdrawn Ulverston

An application was submitted for a single wind turbine, was withdrawn on 18/07/03 as there were concerns about noise issues. The developer is intending to submit a revised application in the near future.

0.387

Application submitted

â&#x20AC; 

An application to erect 27 wind 67.5 turbines, each with a minimum (installed capacity of 2.5MW was submitted to capacity) the Secretary of State on the 30th September 2003. As the proposed wind farm is over 50MW the proposal will be determined by the Secretary of State under Section 36 of the Electricity Act.

DNC: Declared Net Capacity (the maximum rating of the generating station less the power required by itself at which the station can run continuously if required)

Ref: A/00124

Page 50


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 5.25

A range of national studies68 have shown that, although 10 full time jobs are sustained for each megawatt of installed renewable capacity, the majority of these jobs are generated during the manufacturing and construction phase. These jobs require specialist skills and are often brought in from outside. The long term impact on direct employment from wind energy generation in the Lake District and surrounding area is therefore likely to be modest.

5.26

In terms of its impact on the tourism sector, a number of independent studies from elsewhere in the UK69 have suggested that the presence of wind turbines in the landscape does not deter most tourists. While a small minority are put off by wind turbines, others are positively interested and would like to have access to visitor centres which can create local employment and income. However, the views of visitors may of course depend on the scale and precise location of the wind farms and the impact on views of landscapes. As Figure 5.5 shows there could be a concentration of wind farms

5.27

While most of the income generated from energy generating plants goes to national companies outside the areas, large scale projects often set up community funds to support local initiatives. These can be a source of revenue in communities closest to the plants.

Past Trends 5.28

In line with the rest of the country, farm incomes in the Lake District have fallen sharply in recent years and an increasing proportion of income is obtained from either diversification activities or offfarm sources such as second jobs. Table 5.2 shows financial performance measures for a sample of farms in the North of England70 (Cumbria, Northumberland, Durham and Tyne and Wear) covering four farm types. These are: •

Hill rearing farms: Primarily located in the Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) and mainly engaged in sheep production with some beef production.

Upland rearing farms: Primarily located in the SDA and mainly engaged in beef and/or sheep production, but with more intensive management and less emphasis on sheep production than is the case for hill rearing farms.

Marginal (disadvantaged area) farms:

Located in the Disadvantaged Area (DA) and

depend primarily on beef and sheep production with some arable. •

Upland dairy farms: Located in the less favoured area (SDA or DA) and have sheep or beef as well as a dairy herd.

68

Reported in the Renewable Energy Advisory Board’s Annual Report 2003 – Progress and key findings and the Renewable Power Industry Employment and Skills Survey Report 2003.

69

DTI (1994). Public attitudes towards wind power – A survey of opinion in Cornwall and Devon. MORI (2002). Tourist attitudes towards wind farms – Research conducted for Scottish Renewables Forum and British Wind Energy Association. MORI (2003) Public attitudes toward renewable energy in the South West – Research study conducted for REGEN SW Visit Scotland (2002). Investigation into the potential impact of wind farms on tourism in Scotland. NFO System 3 for Visit Scotland

70

Scott, C R (2002) Farming in Northern England 2001/02. University of Newcastle.

Ref: A/00124

Page 51

School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development,


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 5.29

The sample included many farms which had livestock culled during the FMD outbreak, ranging from 41% of marginal DA farms to 75% of upland dairy farms. This has affected the 2001-02 financial results, e.g. through receiving payments for culled livestock and having reduced variable costs due to lower input requirements. Some farmers also earned additional income through contract work associated with the FMD outbreak. With the exception of upland dairy farms, for which the sample was strongly influenced by the livestock culls, all farm types showed a lower return on tenant’s capital in 2001-02 than the average for the previous 10 years. Since the mid-1990s most farm types have experienced steady falls in gross farm output, management and investment income and return on tenant’s capital. Table 5.2 Financial performance for selected farm types in the North of England Measure Year Farm type Hill Upland Marginal Upland rearing rearing DA dairy Net Farm Income 2000-01 74 67 62 148 (£/ha) 2001-02 86 138 70 275 Management & 2000-01 21 -14 -18 31 investment income 2001-02 31 50 -17 142 (£/ha) Return on Tenant’s 2000-01 2.8 -1.0 -1.6 2.4 Capital (%) 2001-02 4.0 3.8 -1.4 10.7 10yr 5.7 5.7 3.8 5.5 average

Key Future Drivers CAP reform and changes to agricultural support 5.30

The agreement reached at an EU level on the Mid Term Review of the CAP in June 2003 marks a fundamental change in the direction of EU policy towards rural areas. The decoupling of agricultural support from production will have fundamental impacts on the way the Lake District’s farmland and open fell are managed. The announcements by Defra in February and April 2004 on how the decoupled payments will be calculated in England will also have important ramifications for the Lake District’s rural economy, though it is still too early to be able to predict precisely what these will be.

5.31

Defra is also modifying the structure of agri-environment and other area based rural development schemes. The Environmentally Sensitive Area, Countryside Stewardship, and Organic Farming Schemes are to be replaced by an Entry Level and a Higher Level Scheme. Given that the majority of the Lake District is currently in the ESA Scheme, it is the future of land currently receiving payments under this scheme that will be most important.

5.32

There is insufficient data to precisely model the impacts that these changes will have on the Lake District. However, there is general agreement amongst agencies and industry sources, and from recently published research71, that the following changes are likely: •

The decoupling of support is likely to lead to a significant drop in agricultural production, particularly in the dairy sector (see below) and this will be felt in the sectors of the economy upstream and downstream from farmers, particularly in the local businesses such as vets and animal feed merchants reliant on local farming clients. It remains to be seen whether these

71

Including Defra, 2004. An assessment of the impacts of hill farming in England on the economic, environmental and social sustainability of the uplands and more widely. Research report by IEEP, LUC and GHK which included a case study area in the Lake District. Ongoing work by Promar on the impact of CAP reform in the North West is also taking place, not available at the time of writing this report.

Ref: A/00124

Page 52


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] losses will be matched by increased diversified economic activity on farms, such as through value added tourism provision. •

The decoupling of support in the dairy sector is likely to accelerate the restructuring of the dairy sector72, with production moving out of the Lake District to areas such as Cheshire and, within the Lake District, becoming concentrated on the larger specialist and more efficient holdings on the better land.

The value of the dairy sector to the local economy (currently

estimated at nearly £16 m) is therefore likely to fall significantly. •

The overall impact of the redistribution of CAP support across the Severely Disadvantaged Areas is difficult to predict. However, given that the Lake District has a greater number of sheep to cattle and a greater area of moorland to in-bye than most other SDA areas in England, it is likely that there will be an overall increase in CAP support through the Single Farm Payment (or at least no significant fall after taking account of ‘modulation’ reductions in Single Farm Payments to fund rural development schemes and any reductions to adhere to EU financial disciplines).

The decoupling of CAP support from production, particularly in the beef and sheep sector, will lead to a reduction in stocking densities on the open fells.

This is being welcomed by

environmental bodies since the reduction in grazing pressure is expected to lead to the recovery of heather growth, and in some areas, a reduction in erosion problems, on many commons. However, within the livestock sector, it is likely that cattle numbers will fall more than sheep numbers (because of the relatively higher levels of current support to the beef sector, when compared to the sheep sector on an area basis). The way in which cattle graze moorland, particularly in the early summer, is usually considered more benign from an environmental point of view than sheep.

Further reductions in cattle grazing are therefore likely to be seen as

environmentally undesirable on many open fells. •

The move to more extensive stocking over in-bye areas is likely to reduce levels of diffuse pollution and livestock damage to semi-natural habitats and historical features. However, with lower incomes from agricultural production, farmers may find it more difficult to justify the costs of fencing and some people are suggesting increased ‘ranching’ of livestock with lower investment in environmental maintenance.

The conditions of good agricultural and

environmental management placed on farmers in return for receiving the Single Farm Payment (which Defra will shortly consult on) may seek to ensure that environmental management is maintained. •

Farmers and others are warning that the decoupling of support could lead to the withdrawal of agricultural management (grazing and burning) of some areas of remote open fell in the Lake District. There is already limited evidence of some small areas being abandoned (such as Lowick Common), hastened by FMD.

There is a widespread consensus that unplanned agricultural

abandonment will have undesirable environmental and social consequences and English Nature’s Cumbria team have commissioned a technical study (in progress) on the nature and scale of these consequences.

72

Evidenced in a recent study commissioned by the Dairy Supply Chain Forum: Colman, D and Harvey, D. 2004. The

Future of UK Dairy Farming.

Ref: A/00124

Page 53


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Climate change 5.33

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) has co-ordinated research into a range of climate change scenarios for the UK. The results are presented as averages (of temperature, rainfall, etc.) for three future time periods: 2011 to 2040 (the 2020s), 2041 to 2070 (the 2050s) and 2071 to 2100 (the 2080s), and for three possible scenarios: low emissions, medium-low emissions, medium-high emissions and high emissions. Selected variables for the ’low’ and ‘high’ scenarios are presented in Table 5.3, for the 2020s and the 2050s.

5.34

Potential climatic changes by the 2050s include up to 3°C rise in temperature, up to 20% increase in winter rainfall, up to 30% decrease in summer rainfall and generally more extreme weather patterns. The changes are expected to be greater by the 2080s. For agriculture this may mean reduced soil moisture, possible new pests and diseases and a requirement for new pasture varieties and species. On the other hand, increased carbon dioxide concentrations and a longer growing season may increase pasture and tree growth rates as long as adequate water and nutrients are available.

5.35

Natural habitats and species may be put under severe pressure, especially those at higher altitudes and/or depending on regular rainfall, such as blanket bog. For these species, the available habitats may diminish as they already occupy the coldest and wettest parts of the Lake District. Table 5.3. Selected climate change predictions for the Lake District, from the UK Climate Impacts Programme Climate variable

Average maximum temperature

Summer rainfall

Winter rainfall

Climate change scenario Low emissions

Expected change compared with present day 2020s 2050s O O +1 C +2 C

High emissions

+ 1 OC

+ 3 OC

Low emissions

- 10%

- 20 %

High emissions

- 10%

- 20% to -30 %

Low emissions

+ 10%

+ 10%

High emissions

+ 10%

+ 20%

Ref: A/00124

Page 54


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Renewable Energy Policy 5.36

The primary goal of national energy policy is to reduce carbon emissions by 60% over the next 50 years through the expansion of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The Energy White Paper (2003) sets out a target to obtain 10% of electricity from renewables by 2010 and an aspirational target to double this to 20% by 2020. To assist progress towards the renewables target, the Government has introduced a range of regulatory and fiscal support measures including: •

The Renewables Obligation – This requires electricity suppliers to purchase a certain proportion of electricity from renewable sources, increasing from 3% in 2003/4 to 10.4% in 2010/11. This is likely to favour commercially driven renewable energy developments that tend to be largescale (particularly wind turbines) and developed for the large electricity generating companies.

Exemption of renewable electricity and heat from the Climate Change Levy (CCL) – The CCL is charged on all energy supplied to industry commerce, agriculture and public administration and services.

A new carbon trading system to come into effect from around 2005 that will give energy suppliers and consumers incentives to switch to cleaner energy.

An expanded support programme for renewable energy – including a capital grants programme worth £250 million from 2002-2005 aimed at encouraging offshore wind energy, energy crops, biomass heating, photovoltaic and community and household renewable energy projects.

5.37

Together, these policy measures will promote greater renewable energy generation capacity. The extent to which this materialises in the Lake District area, which has significant wind potential and some hydro-electric potential, will be strongly influenced by planning policies.

5.38

In November 2003 the ODPM published a revised planning policy guidance statement on renewable energy (PPS 22) for consultation. This guidance aims to encourage regional bodies and local authorities to promote and encourage, rather than restrict, the development of renewable energy resources. Of particular relevance to the Lake District National Park, PPS 22 states that small-scale developments should be permitted within national designated areas such as National Parks, SPAs, SACs, SSSIs provided that there is no serious environmental detriment to the area. It goes on to advise that Regional Planning Bodies and Local Planning Authorities should set out criteria based policies which outline the circumstances in which particular types and sizes of renewable energy development will be acceptable in nationally designated areas.

Ref: A/00124

Page 55


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

6.

The Lake District as a Place to Live Current Situation

6.1

The focus of this section is to understand the nature of people who live in the Lake District by analysing a number of socio-economic characteristics. For the purposes of this study it is useful to compare Lake District with its surrounding areas such as Kendal, Penrith and Ulverston. Population Trends

6.2

The most recent estimate for the resident population of the LDNP is around 42,000 from the 2001 Census. It has proved impossible to accurately gauge the extent to which population has increased or decreased due to changes in ward definitions 1991 to 2001 and the fact that the best fit ward areas for 1991 and 2002 are slightly different areas. However, we believe it is highly likely that population has risen. Those settlements where it is possible to make a reasonable like for like comparison (Keswick, Windermere and Ambleside – see below); all indicate population rises in the range 5% to 8%. It is unlikely that there has been substantial de-population in more rural wards to offset these increases. The table below also shows that the population living in the towns immediately surrounding the LDNP itself contain a substantially larger population than the National Park – a common feature of all National Parks. The strong overall growth in Eden and South Lakeland is also clear (driven by strong net in migration over the period). Table 6.1: Resident Population Estimates, 2001 and 1991 *Census 1991

Lake District National Park Area1

Census 2001

Total

Male

Female

% change 19912001 Total

Total

Male

Female

[45.06*]

[21.75*]

[23.31*]

41.83

20.37

21.47

-7.2%

4.58

2.12

2.46

5.39

2.59

2.81

15.7%

Keswick

(ward)2

Ambleside (ward)2

3.13

1.44

1.69

3.56

1.64

1.92

14.9%

Bowness and Windermere3

5.67

2.57

3.10

6.47

3.02

3.45

7.2%

Kendal 23.77 11.34 12.44 27.51 13.26 14.24 1.4% Penrith 12.84 6.11 6.73 14.76 7.04 7.71 17.7% Cockermouth 7.35 3.50 3.85 7.88 3.80 4.08 13.7% Ulverston 11.37 5.55 5.81 11.52 5.59 5.94 14.2% Eden 45.58 22.45 23.13 49.78 24.49 25.28 9.2% South Lakeland 96.90 46.38 50.51 102.30 49.49 52.81 5.6% Source: Census 2001, *Nomis, Census of Population, 1991 1* The data collected for 1991 are based on best fit wards and so cover areas outside the National Park. 2 These are ward figures. 3 Aggregated wards: Windermere Applethwaite, Windermere Bowness North, Windermere Town. Note: ward boundaries have changed 1999 to 2001 so comparisons need to be treated cautiously e.g. it is likely that population has risen rather faster than suggested in Kendal.

Ref: A/00124

Page 56


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Age Profile 6.3

The population of the Lake District has above proportions of population aged 45-65 or 65 plus compared to North West and Cumbria. This is an indication of the area’s attractiveness to older age groups and especially retirees. Younger people (0-17) are relatively smaller proportion of the total population. To put these figures into context, if the LDNP was a local authority it would rank 26th highest (out of 376 in England and Wales) in term of the proportion of its population over 65 (where the higher ranking local authorities areas tend to be the coastal resorts). The Lake District does not (yet at least) have the concentration of very elderly of some of these coastal areas, the proportion of population aged over 75 was 9.9% in 2001, in some parts of the South Coast it rises to 14% or more. More significantly the Lake District would rank 1st in England and Wales in term of the proportion of its population aged 45-64 – indicating that it has proven an attractive area for what might be styled early retirees.

6.4

There are great variations in age profile across the Lake District (see Figure 6.2) with some wards – noticeably in the South Lakes and Keswick having particularly high proportions of those over 65 years old – indicating their greater attractiveness to retirees. Figure 6.1: Overall Age Profile, 2001 6.5 40% 6.6

North West

36.5%

Cumbria

6.7 35%

6.10 25% 6.11 20% 6.12

South Lakeland

31.5% 31.4%

6.8 30% 6.9

29.5% 27.9%

LDNP

24.2%

23.3%

21.7% 21.1%

19.6% 17.2%

16.0%

6.13 15% 6.14 10% 6.15 5% 6.16 0% People aged: 0-17

People aged: 18-44 People aged: 45-64

Source: Census of Popluation

Ref: A/00124

Page 57

People aged: 65+


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 6.2: LDNP Wards, % of resident population aged over 65

England=16% Cumbria=18%

Wi nd erm ere Wi nd Bo Car erm wn tm es el ere sN Ap ... ple thw ait e Ke sw ick Go s Ha forth wk Sta sh ve ea ley d -in D -W ac re es De tmor rw l en and t La ke s A Vall mb ey les ide Bo lto n Cr um s mo ck Wi Ull nd sw erm ate r ere C Bo onis wn ton es La s. ke .. s Gr as me Gr re ey Mi sto llo ke m Wi tho ut Bro ug hto Ly n th Va lle y As kh am Wa rne ll Sh a Wi p nd Burn erm es ere ide To wn Cr ak eV all ey Wh inf ell E Or ton nner da wi le th Te ba y

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Source: Census of Population

6.17

There has been a general trend towards the ageing of the population, but an examination of Census data for 1991 and 2001 suggests that the growth in proportion of those aged over 65 (and 45-64) has been particularly strong in the Lakes. In England as a whole the proportion of those aged over 65 barely changed 1991 to 2001 and the proportion of those aged 45-64 grew by 2 percent points, in the Lake District they collectively grew by an estimated over 5 percentage points. Figure 6.3: Lake District National Park - % Change in Age Structure as a Proportion of Total Population

40%

1991

35%

2001

30%

Note: Estimated on best fit wards

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Aged 0-17

Aged 18-44

Aged 45-64

Ref: A/00124

Page 58

Aged 65+

Source: Census 2001 Census 1991


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Migration 6.18

There are some official estimates of migration flows within Cumbria and the Local Authority Districts covering Lake District. 73 As Figure 6.3 illustrates the local authority with the highest net inflow in the year ending mid-2002 was South Lakeland. The majority of people migrating into the Local Authority are people of retirement age 60 and over. Therefore it can be assumed that it is likely that in-migration in the Lake District will predominantly take place by retirees. Even though net migration in the North West has decreased by 1,900 people Cumbria has experienced an increased net flow of in-migrants. South Lakeland contributes about 33% to the overall migration in Cumbria and has a disproportionally large number of inflows of people over retirement age (and outflow of younger people). Figure 6.4 shows migration over a longer period into South Lakeland (the closest proxy to the Lake District). This demonstrates how net immigration has been particularly strong in the 45-64 age group â&#x20AC;&#x201C; who are disproportionally represented in the Lake District. Figure 6.4 Net Migration, 1997-2002, South Lakeland

Migration (000s)

10 9

Inflows

8

Outflows

7

Net Change

6 5 4 3

2.3

1.8

2

1.3 0.7

1 0 -1

0-15

-2

16-24

25-44

45-64

65+

-1.7

Age Group Source: ONS, 2003

73

The Office for National Statistics does not provide migration evidence either for the Lake District National Park or for ward levels since there is no compulsory system within the UK to record the movement of population. Migration estimates are based on patients moving and changing their doctor as they change address.

Ref: A/00124

Page 59


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 6.2: Internal Migration Estimates, mid 2001-mid 2002 Inflow Age Groups/Area

<24

Outflow 25-44

Net Balance

45-59

60+

<24

25-44

45-59

60+

<24

25-44

45-59

60+

Cumbria

6660

6300

3000

2200

7100

5500

2100

1600

-440

800

900

600

Eden

800

700

300

300

900

600

300

300

-100

100

0

0

South Lakeland

1900

1800

900

800

2000

1400

600

500

-100

400

300

300

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2003

Future Population Trends 6.19

There are two key trends suggested by national population projections and by those for Cumbria carried out by the County Council: •

Firstly, the population of both Eden and South Lakeland are forecast to continue to grow over the period 2001 to 2016 (by 20% and 10% respectively), compared to growth for Cumbria of just 1%. It is likely therefore that there will be considerable population growth and pressure both within and in areas outside the Lake District National Park.

Second, the most recent population estimates74 (at a UK level), show the startling increase in number of older people in the population. Total UK population is forecast to rise by 4.5% from 2001 to 2016 and 7.3% 2001 to 2026, however the population over 60 years old is forecast to rise by 21.7% and 42.4% over this period. This significant ageing of the UK’s population (the proportion aged 60+ rising from 21% to 28% over the 25 year period), coupled with already above average proportion of older people and net in-migration trends could lead to a particularly high proportion of those of pensionable age living in the Lake District.

It is impossible to forecast the likely future age profile of the resident population of the Lake District, however it would seem reasonable to assume that the proportional increase in those over 60 is at least as fast as the rest of the UK and possibly faster given the high proportion of those already aged 45-64 there. It is quite possible that the proportion of the area’s population over 60 by 2026 could be as high as 35-37%75.

74

“Interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries”, Chris Shaw Government Actuary’s Department Population Trends, vol 111, pp 11. 75

At present the proportion is 28.5%, applying the national percentage points increase (7%) would take it to around 35.5%, however the population is likely to “age” faster given the large proportion aged 45-64 already present.

Ref: A/00124

Page 60


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Socio-Demographics Composition and Qualifications of the Population 6.20

Figure 6.5 below summarises the Census classification of the resident population of the National Park area’s population. The key features are the very large proportion who are small employers – reflecting as we shall see later the importance of self employment. Figure 6.5: Socio-Economic Classification of Resident Population in LDNP, 2001 25%

LDNP

20%

England and Wales

15% 10% 5%

18%

0%

1%

3%

5%

18%

19%

11% 5%

5%

7%

8%

H

ig he rm H

Lo ng -te

rm

un em

pl oy N e a ed ig ve na he rw g er rp or ia ro ke lo fe d c ss cu i p o In at na te io lo rm ns cc ed u pa ia te tio Lo oc ns cu w Fu er pa su lltio ti m pe ns rv e st is or ud y en oc ts R cu ou p ti n Se at io e m oc ns i -r Lo ou cu w er pa tin m tio e an oc ns ag cu er pa ia tio lo ns cc up Sm at io al ns le m pl N oy ot er cl s as si fia bl e

0%

Source: 2001 Census Note: for those aged 16-75

6.21

Of more interest in many ways is the large proportion of residents in the Lake District with degree level qualifications compared to the English population as a whole (25.9% compared to 19.9%) in 2001. Within the Lake District the areas with the highest percentage of working age population with degrees are: •

Crummock (35.4%)

Ennerdale (33.7%)

Gosforth (33.1%)

Derwent Valley (31.8%) and

Broughton (32%)

All of the above wards are located in the western side of Lake District. It is most likely that this is a combination of the retirement of relatively wealthy professional/managerial workers coupled with senior staff at major employers on the West Coast and in Furness living in the Lake District. 6.22

76

There are only two wards with below national proportions of graduates. These are Windermere Town (13.3% compared to 19.9%) and Shap (11.2% compared to 19.9%). Nearly all wards76 within Lake District National Park have below national proportions of working age population with no qualifications (28.9% for England).

These are estimated best fit Census 2001 wards.

Ref: A/00124

Page 61


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Figure 6.6: Qualification levels of Adults, 2001 Q u a lific a tio n s L e v e ls o f A d u lts , C e n s u s 2 0 0 1

40%

d e g r e e le v e l

36% 32%

n o q u a ls .

28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% an d C op el

A lle rd al e

C um br ia

N or th

W

es t

Ed en

En gl an d

La ke la nd

So ut h

LD N

P

0%

Source: Census of Population, 2001

Skills 6.23

Table 6.3 illustrates the types of occupations held by LDNP residents (as a proportion of working age population in employment). There are two striking features of the nature of occupations: ¾

First, the data shows a relatively high proportion of the population in managerial/professional jobs (partly as a result of the importance of small firms and partly likely to be due to out-commuting

¾ 6.24

Second, the high proportion of those in “elementary” occupations.

The combination of these two peaks in terms of type of employment points towards a potentially two tier economy and labour market with implications, as we shall see later, for housing and other matters. Table 6.3 : Types of Occupations held by those in Employment Managerial

England North West Cumbria Allerdale Copeland Eden South Lakeland LDNP

Professional

Associate Technical

Secretarial

Skilled Trades

Personal Service

Customer Service

Plant Operatives

Elementary

15.3%

11.2%

13.8%

13.4%

11.5%

6.9%

7.7%

8.4%

11.8%

13.7%

10.5%

12.8%

13.1%

11.7%

7.6%

8.3%

9.8%

12.5%

12.9% 12.7% 10.6% 13.6%

9.1% 8.6% 8.5% 8.8%

11.4% 10.1% 13.1% 10.1%

10.5% 10.0% 10.8% 9.7%

16.3% 16.7% 16.4% 19.1%

7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 6.7%

7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 6.3%

10.9% 12.9% 12.6% 10.9%

13.9% 14.1% 14.3% 14.8%

16.6%

11.5%

11.6%

9.6%

16.0%

7.5%

7.7%

7.0%

12.6%

21.0%

10.5%

10.4%

8.0%

18.2%

6.3%

6.3%

4.7%

14.5%

Source: Census 2001 1 As a proportion of working age population in employment

Economic Activity 6.25

The Census data shows that in spite of being a location for earlier retirees and in spite of having a relatively high proportion of those aged 60+, overall the proportion of adults aged 16-74 who are

Ref: A/00124

Page 62


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] economically active is above the England average â&#x20AC;&#x201C; reflecting no doubt the significant level of job opportunities in the area. Figure 6.7 shows that economically inactive retired aged 16-74 are rather more significant in the Lake District (and South Lakeland) than elsewhere. In 2001 there were 18.8% (5,900) of retired residents living in Lake District, which is significantly higher (5.3% points) than the national and North West (4.5% points) average. However, the difference does not appear to be due to any evidence of earlier than usual retirement. Indeed a comparison of those aged 6074 as a percentage of all those aged 16-74 and those who stated they have retired suggests that people living in the Lake District aged 60+ are more likely to be working that the national average. Figure 6:7 Economically Inactive: Retired as a proportion of working age 16-74, 2001 20% 18% 16% 14%

13.5%

16.3%

16.7%

Eden

Cumbria

18.6%

18.8%

South Lakeland

Lake District National Park

14.3%

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% England

North West

Source: Census 2001

Housing 6.26

The purpose of this section is to assess the issue of housing affordability and availability across Lake District and its neighbouring local authority areas. According to the 2001 Census, the Lake District has the highest proportion of detached houses in Cumbria and the North West. Significant proportions of detached housing are also found in rural areas of Eden and South Lakeland. Terraced houses and flats are concentrated in larger urban areas such as Allerdale and Copeland.

6.27

However the National Park still has a relatively high number of terraced houses. According to John Herrington Associates (JHA)77 wards in the Central Lakes have high proportions of terrace housing, ranging from between 20% to 40% of total housing stock. Ambleside has the highest proportion of terrace housing, 36% of total stock.

77

Study of Housing Stress and Affordability in Cumbria, Technical Paper 4, Cumbria and Lake District Structure Plan

Ref: A/00124

Page 63


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 6.8: Nature of Housing Stock 60% 50%

48.6%

40%

30.2%

30%

28.0%

LDNP 23.1%

20%

Cumbria 9.8%

10%

7.8%

5.2%

2.9%

0.8%

Va ca co nt C m ar m av er an ci al or bu ot il d he in rm g ob i le st ru ct ur e

Fl at in

ac co m m Fl od at at :p io ar B n ui to l t fa bl oc co k nv of er fla te ts d or sh ar ed ho us e Pu rp os e

i-d et at ch ed

Se co nd

re si de nc e

/h ol id ay

Se m

Te rra ce d

D

et at ch ed

0%

Source: Census 2001

Housing Tenure 6.28

In 2001, 41.9% (7,500) of the households in Lake District were owned outright. This is also significantly higher that the English and Cumbria average, and is likely to be a reflection of the higher proportion of retired and inherited households. This is reinforced by the fact that within Cumbria, the Lake District National Park has the lowest proportion 25.7% (4,600) of households who own a property with a mortgage or a loan. Figure 6.9 Houses Owned Outright, 2001 45% 40% 33.9%

35% 30%

29.2%

29.8%

England

North West

39.6%

40.5%

Eden

South Lakeland

41.9%

34.9%

29.9%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Copeland Allerdale

Source: Census 2001

Ref: A/00124

Page 64

Cumbria

lake District National Park


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 6.29

There is also a significant concentration of private/other rented properties in the National Park (20% of the stock or 3,500 households compared to 12% in England and Cumbria) especially in the wards of Ullswater, Coniston, Hawkshead, and Windermere and in the South Lakes in Lyth Valley. The study by JHA quotes that “larger proportions of private renting reflect the historical pattern of land ownership and the existence of tied farming estates”. This statement also applies in the case of outright ownership. The highest concentrations of social rented property are found in urban areas in West Cumbria where household incomes are very low. The overall number of households in social rented housing in the National Park is 2,160 or 12.1%; this is below the Cumbria proportion (16%), but actually above the proportions in South Lakeland and Eden as a whole (10.5% and 9.7% respectively). However, it is worth noting that these proportions relate to households not the housing stock (which included second and holiday homes). Housing Affordability

6.30

According to the Housing Corporation78 “demand for affordable housing in rural areas remains high. Much of the demand is for family housing, but there are also demands from older people.” Since 1998 house prices across Cumbria have been consistently above those of the North and North West. Prior to this, prices grew steadily from about £58,000 in 1995 to £63,000 in 1998. South Lakeland and Eden have seen disproportionate large increases in average price of all housing types. The following tables indicate percentage change of the average price and sales in the local authority districts by type of housing over the last 5 years. Table 6.4: Average change in house prices by District – 4th Quarter 1998 to 4th quarter 2003 Areas

Dates

South Lakeland Eden

Copeland

Allerdale

128,385

76,032

61,172

Flats / Maisonettes 71,804

4 qtr 03

239,999

154,889

131,041

141,534

172,933

% change

87%

104%

114%

97%

100%

4th qtr 98 th

th

Detached

Semi Detached

Total 86,177

4 qtr 98

110,252

57,702

48,261

42,379

74,693

4th qtr 03

202,019

124,964

113,811

72,300

146,251

% change

83%

117%

136%

71%

96%

4th qtr 98

84528

41264

30917

22193

49259

4th qtr 03

153,812

83503

51870

77723

85226

% change

82%

102%

68%

250%

73%

th

4 qtr 98

96447

54710

42428

53685

63159

4th qtr 03

172051

101059

72208

75718

106077

85%

70%

41%

68%

% change 78% Lake 4th qtr 98 141,743 District 4th qtr 03 256,984 National 1 % change 81% Park Source: Land Registry Note: 1 LDNP is defined by post-code sectors

78

Terraced

92,996

71,126

70,928

105,478

166,149

184,013

167,032

204,701

79%

159%

135%

94%

http://www.housingcorp.gov.uk/

Ref: A/00124

Page 65


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 6.5: Average change in number of house sales by District – 4th Quarter 1998 to 4th quarter 2003 Areas

Dates

South Lakeland

4th qtr 98

Total

184

134

748

4 qtr 03

180

177

94

654

% change

-2%

-19%

-4%

-30%

-13%

103

79

67

17

266

th

4 qtr 98 4 qtr 03

89

62

69

19

239

% change

-14%

-22%

3%

12%

-10%

4th qtr 98

65

83

77

8

233

4 qtr 03

102

93

202

13

410

% change

57%

12%

162%

63%

76%

140

106

172

21

439

th

4 qtr 98 th

Lake District National Park1

Flats / Maisonettes

222

th

Allerdale

Terraced

203

th

Copeland

Semi Detached

208

th

Eden

Detached

4 qtr 03

121

102

191

33

447

% change

-14%

-4%

11%

57%

2%

4th qtr 98

86

53

65

52

256

4th qtr 03

94

49

58

31

226

% change

9%

-8%

-11%

-40%

-12%

Source: Land Registry Note: 1 LDNP is defined by post-code sectors

6.31

In South Lakeland despite prices doubling since 1998 overall sales have decreased by 12.6% (Q4). This suggests that either there are few properties up for sale or prices are too high that people cannot afford to buy. It is interesting to note that there has been a significant drop of sales for flats over this time period, which may indicate that the demographic driver for house prices in the Lake District and surrounding areas are people with significant wealth wanting larger accommodation. In contrast, the housing market in Copeland is buoyant at present. Prices have increased by £36,000 (73%) together with sales increasing up 177 over the past 5 years. Since the housing market in Copeland includes mainly terraced and semi-detached properties, these will be the main types of housing sought by those interested for more affordable housing.

6.32

It is interesting to analyse though the relationship between income and housing costs. A study for Cumbria County Council et al79 have indicated a number of areas where the percentage of households are unable to afford average terrace house prices (based on 2001-02). Within the Lake District National Park these include: •

Keswick

Ambleside

Coniston

Broughton

Staveley in Westmorland and

Lyth Valley

In the periphery of Lake District the problem of housing affordability lies notably along the M6 corridor including Kendal and Penrith.

79

Source: Cumbria County Council, Lake District National Park Authority and John Herington Associates, “Planning Cumbria: Study of Housing Stress and Affordability in Cumbria”, 2003

Ref: A/00124

Page 66


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 6.33

More recently a study by WM Enterprise Consultants, commissioned by the Cumbria Strategic Partnership looked into the affordability of rural housing in Cumbria looking at case studies in six areas80. This study found that there was no evidence to suggest that lack of affordable housing in rural Cumbria is currently threatening overall economic viability, although employers consider this to be a factor (amongst others) affecting their ability to recruit staff. Other factors included low pay levels and poor advancement prospects, paucity of skilled applicants and / or applicants with appropriate attitude and motivation.

6.34

These factors combined mean that employers often have high staff turnover rates, which necessitates an ongoing requirement to recruit. The study argues that affordable housing becomes more of an issue when: •

Few alternative housing solutions are in the vicinity (a factor that is most acute for first time buyers around Keswick)

6.35

Unsocial hours are demanded

Employer is a tourism business who is not providing staff accommodation

Nevertheless problems with housing affordability occur in market areas with a combination of high costs and relatively low incomes. The most acute pressure is found in Central and South Lakes and in the areas just outside the National Park such as Kendal, Penrith and Ulverston. Second Homes Issue

6.36

The existence of second homes issue is clearly contributing to the continuing rise of house prices in the National Park and outlying areas; although consultations suggest that there has been limited growth over the last 10 years. It is difficult to differentiate between second homes and holiday lets, and indeed in economic impact terms they are interchangeable definitions, as second homes are quite often let either formally or informally when not occupied by their owners.

6.37

Second homes and holiday lets represent 18% (4140) of the total stock of the National Park area, of which around half are second homes and the remainder holiday lets. The Lake District is second only to Pembrokeshire in terms of second homes / holiday lets in National Parks as a percentage of all household spaces. There are acute concentrations in the distribution of second homes and holiday lets, with Grasmere, Windermere Bowness South, Shap and Hawkshead wards having over 30% of dwellings classified in this manner (see Figure 6.12).

80

Keswick, Cockermouth, Kirkby Stephen, Grange, Langwathby and Grange Over Sands. The report was published in April 2004 and entitled “Affordable Housing in Rural Cumbria”

Ref: A/00124

Page 67


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 6.10: Ward variations in Proportion of Dwellings which are Second Homes or Holiday lets %of Holiday/Second Homes by Ward, 2001 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0

n w To e er y rm ba de in ck Te W wi ith s w Ke n rto ll O rne y a W le lle ot V a Bo ke le th ra a or C erd N n m ss En ha er ne k t w d As wa Bo rlan lls h e o U fot er tm os rm es G de i n l -W W tme y-in ar e C vel ke a o St st n y re to te G gh c k ai ou o hw Br m y e et l m l pl ru a C hV Ap t s e Ly ton er ley l rm l Bo de t Va ut in n o W we ith er W de D m si le illo h M re mb ut ac A So D es n k ss La isto ead ne w on h C wks Bo e e a H p er e r a rm m Sh de ras in G W es k La Source: 2001 Census

6.38

The reduction in second home Council Tax discount offers the potential for additional revenue to be used to tackle the affordable housing issue. Estimates suggest that the additional revenue receipts will be distributed in proportion to the number of second homes pro rata per district as follows: •

South Lakeland £826,000;

Allerdale £363,000,

Eden £277,000,

Copeland £199,000.

6.39

Strong market pressure in the Lake District and surrounding areas are leading to stark rises in residential house prices driven by high demand and undersupply. The policy approach taken to house building is clear, with zero new dwellings allocated in the National Park in the Cumbria and Lake District Joint Structure Plan; although in practice there will continue to be development with strict locality clauses and a social provision element. There is also pressure in the National Park for property currently in commercial use to be converted to residential use, which is indicative of the current profitability of residential housing in the National Park.

6.40

The Affordable Rural Housing in Cumbria study considered whether second and holiday homes would limit the markets of local settlements. It concluded that in Grasmere the local market has the potential to suffer from a lack of year round residency, but elsewhere there is no current evidence to suggest that viability of local business markets are being threatened by the high proportion of holiday homes and second homes.

Summary issues 6.41

There is increasing market pressure on residential housing in both the National Park and outlying areas (especially adjacent to the M6), although volume of sales has fallen. The number of homes owned outright is a high proportion of total housing stock.

Ref: A/00124

Page 68


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 6.42

It remains unclear whether housing pressure and affordability is impacting disproportionately on the ability of the employed to live close to work, or for employers to attract and retain staff locally and remain competitive at the current time, as other factors contribute to recruitment and retention in and around the Lake District. It is perfectly possible that a high proportion of the employed became house owners prior to the acceleration in prices in recent years â&#x20AC;&#x201C; which would suggest that a time lag in the labour market impact of a widening gap between house prices and wages. However as the gap between wages and house prices widens, the issue will increase in significance.

Key Future Drivers 6.43

There is likely to be continued pressure on housing stock from a combination of retirees, â&#x20AC;&#x153;empty nestersâ&#x20AC;?, remote workers and out-commuters. Coupled to this will be continued growth in over 65 (retired) population at faster than national pace to reach 35% to 40% of overall population (within overall modest population growth) in the next 10 to 20 years

6.44

There is also likely to be a continued churn of the rest of the population, leading to the better qualified buying the housing which becomes available.

6.45

In terms of economic activity, national forecasts are for strong employment growth in sectors which are knowledge based (business services, biotechnology, ICT) and those driven by increases in disposable incomes (personal services, leisure, health etc).

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

7.

The Lake District as a Place to Work and Operate a Business

7.1

This section considers current employment levels and business performance in The Lake District. Employment data are based on Census 2001 (residence based including self employment), the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) Employee Analysis and an analysis of the Yellow Pages database for the Lake District (and surrounding areas). The geographies between the three data sources differ slightly; hence they are not directly comparable. The Census has its own definition for the National Park, whereas data from ABI are collected on best fit wards81 and the Yellow Pages data is based on postcode sectors.

Current Situation Employment 7.2

According to the 2001 Census there were 20,670 people living in the Lake District National Park who were in employment, there were above average concentration in two sectors - hotels and catering and agriculture. Hotels and catering together with the wholesale and retail trade provides 37% of employment of those living in the Lake District, due to the importance of tourism and tourist related activities to the area. Agriculture is also a significant source of employment (7.8% of the employed working age population in the Lake District), which is higher by 3.6% points than the Cumbria average. Within Cumbria, Eden has the highest proportion of employees 10.1% in agriculture, which is attributed mostly its deep rural character (and relatively under-developed tourism sector).

7.3

As Figures 7.2 and 7.3 show there are stark variations in the importance of agriculture and tourism as sources of employment. The south and central Lakes and Keswick/Ullswater have the main concentration of people employed in tourism; agriculture tends to be more important on the outer edges of the National Park to the north, east and west. Figure 7.1: Industry of Employment of Residents, Census 2001

LDNP North West

Fi na nc ia ls er vi ce P s ub lic ad m in Tr a ns O th po er rt se rv ic C es on B st us ru in ct es io s n se rv ic es E du ca tio A n g H ri ea cu lth ltu re an d so M ci an al uf ac tu ri ng H ot R et el s ai an le t d ca c. te ri ng

20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Source: Census 2001

81

See Appendix A for further details.

Ref: A/00124

Page 70


er Lak e e Bo s w Gr W De nes asm in de L r s e rm ak we So re er e s nt ut e A Va h Ap m ll pl ble ey et s hw id W a e U lls it e in de W w rm in H Ke at er de a w sw er e rm k ic Bo e s k w re hea ne T d s s ow N n St Co ort av el n h e y A is -in s ton St av -C kha el ar m ey t -in C B me o -W ru lt l e s m on tm mo s Ly or c k t h la n Va d lle G S y re ha ys p G tok Br os e ou f o M gh rth ill om B t on W oot Bu ith le r ou En ne t ne sid rd e al e

W in de rm

M Cr ill um om m W oc ith k As ou t Ul kh ls am w Bo at e lto r n St G Boo s re t av Ly y s le el ey t to -in E h V ke -W n all e s ner e y tm da or l e Co la n ni d st o Sh n G a Br os p ou f or Bu gh th H rn t o St De a w e s n av rw k id el en sh e e t e W La y-in Va a d in de L ke s -Ca lley rm ak G rtm W er e s ras e in e A m l de Ap m e rm pl ble re er et s i W e hw de in de W Bo a K w rm in n e it e s er de es w e rm s ic Bo e N k w re ort ne T h s s ow So n ut h

Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 7.2: % of LDNP Residents Working in Agriculture, 2001

20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% LDNP av=8.5% Cum bria av=4.5%

Source: Census 2001 Note: these are best fit wards

Figure 7.3: % of LDNP Residents Working in Hotels and Catering, 2001

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% LDNP av 21% Cumbria av 7.9%

Source: Census 2001 Note: These are best fit wards

Ref: A/00124

Page 71


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 7.4

Other features of employment in the Lake District National Park area are what would be expected in a relatively remote rural area. There are relatively few people employed in financial or business services (10%), although this is similar to the overall Cumbria proportion and the Eden and South Lakeland proportions.

7.5

The proportion employed in manufacturing (9.3%) is well below the regional (16.9%) and county (18.9%) averages. However, this proportion is well above the proportion of manufacturing jobs located in the National Park as a result of out-commuting. Indeed, in parts of the national Park there are major concentrations of residents working in manufacturing who travel to major employers such as BNFL (Sellafield), GlaxoSmithKline (Ulverston) and BAE Systems (Barrow). For instance the proportion of residents working in manufacturing rises to 29% in Gosforth, 20% in Bootle and 19% in Ennerdale – all on the west side of the Lakes.

7.6

The Census data provides a broad snapshot of what industries residents work in – it does not tell us about employment located inside the Lake District. We have considered two data sources for this – ABI employee data and Yellow Pages information of businesses located in the Lake District. We can analysis this data at a more detailed sectoral level. Taking official employee data (see Figure 7. 4), the importance of tourism related employment becomes apparent, with over half of all employees working in the Lake District working in retail, hotels and catering. Figure 7.4: Proportion of Employees in Employment by Broad Sector, 2001 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

50.6% Cumbria Lake District

18.4%

ur re st a

& n

d

io

an

at

s

uc

te l

ed

ho

n,

n, io ut st r ib

Di

ad ic

Source: ABI 2001

Pu

bl

an

th he

al

tu uf ac io ra t is t

m in

g, in nk Ba

ts

g rin

c et an M

an f in

sp o Tr an

nc ra su in d an

ce

nd rt a

Ag

e,

rv i se er th

O

co m

En

ce s

n st ru

un m

Co n

t io ic a

w d an gy

er

ct io

ns

er at

ng f is hi d an tu re ric

ul

2.6%

1.4%

1.1%

8.1%

7.9%

6.9%

3.1%

Note: Lake District based on best fit wards to National Park 7.7

We have also considered employment data at a more detailed level (3 digit SIC) to see what patterns emerge. Here employment for employees falls into four distinct groupings: ¾

Group 1: tourism related employment – which we estimate to account for around 48% of employment (9,000 jobs). This is spread across a wide range of activities – hotels and catering 5,700 (30%), specialist retail 2,100 (11%) and leisure activities such as museums and sporting activities 1,000 (5%) as well as renting property.

Ref: A/00124

Page 72


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Group 2: production/land based employment in agriculture, forestry, mining and

minerals and manufacture of basic materials from wood 1,300 or 7% of all employees. Group 3: basic population related activities such as primary education, construction,

healthcare etc which are all represented and account for around 20% of employment. Group 4: other specialist niche activities which service markets outside the area.

These fall into three groups: i.

Education and training related activity (higher education, adult education and training) where there is a significant concentration inside the LDNP and just outside as well (the Newton Rigg Campus near Penrith) that appear to account for around 700-800 jobs or 4% of employees.

ii.

Outdoor recreation, which is linked both to education and training and to tourism and is difficult to separate out.

iii.

Specialist business services which via remote working are able to service wider markets. There are around 700 people employed in various specialist business services activities, of whom only 50 are in IT related activity and the majority in engineering/architecture and business services which are most likely to be serving local markets.

7.8

We have taken this analysis further by examining the business base of the Lake District using the Yellow pages database. Table 7.1 shows the summary data for the area inside and outside the National Park. The data largely accords with previous data although this source data focuses on private sector business, hence few jobs in public administration are shown. Table 7.1: Business Base in and around the Lake District National Park, March 2004 Inside National Park孫 Surrounding National Park2 % % SIC main groups Firms Firms Employ % Employ % -ees -ees Hotels and restaurants 829 24% 226 9% 8.6% 7640 34.9% 1933 Wholesale and Retail trade 602 17% 18.2% 620 25% 22.3% 3991 4976 Manufacturing 245 7% 5.1% 256 10% 13.0% 1114 2900 Real estate, renting & 6.2% 310 13% 11.5% 292 8% 1355 2573 business activities Other community social & personal service activities Public Administration Health & Social work Education Transport storage &communication Construction Agriculture Financial intermediation Mining Total

347

10%

2057

9.4%

258

11%

1360

6.1%

12 125 102 230

0% 4% 3% 7%

200 1026 1508 1228

0.9% 4.7% 6.9% 5.6%

29 196 78 105

1% 8% 3% 4%

2851 1841 1128 897

12.8% 8.2% 5.0% 4.0%

160 472 38 2 3469

5% 14% 1% 0% 100%

586 977 145 43

2.7% 4.5% 0.7% 0.2% 100.0 %

177 134 51 7 2457

7% 5% 2% 0% 100%

1025 298 328 200

4.6% 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 100.0%

21905

Source: Yellow Pages Database supplied by Experian Note: 1 LDNP is defined by post-code sectors. 2 area outside defined as Penrith, Ulverston, Kendal, Cockermouth and surrounding areas

Ref: A/00124

Page 73

22359


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Self Employment 7.9

Self-employment in Lake District is particularly important â&#x20AC;&#x201C; driven by the nature of the economic and small firm base with agriculture and hotels and catering being major sources of self-employment. It is significantly above the national (+12% points) and regional (+13% points) averages. Variations in self employment across local authority districts are associated with the industry structure of the region. For instance, traditionally based manufacturing local economies such as Allerdale and Copeland sustain the lowest levels of self-employment. High levels of self-employment can also be due to high levels of entrepreneurial activity possibly due to government incentives. Figure 7.5: Proportion of Economically Active Residents in Self-Employment

Male

Source: Census 2001

Ref: A/00124

Page 74

LD NP

La ke la nd

Ed en

So ut h

Al le rd al e

Female

En gl an d No rt h W es t Cu m br ia

Co pe la nd

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Value Added and Income 7.10

There are no accurate figures on the extent of gross value added created by businesses in the Lake District (or indeed at a local authority district level). Although it is worth noting that across Cumbria as a whole and in the two so-called NUTS2 areas which make up Cumbria (East and West Cumbria), the performance in terms of changes in GVA per capita over the 5 years to 2001 have been extremely poor. One of the only proxies available at a local authority area for GVA are the wage rates paid to employees. Average weekly wage levels across Cumbria remain relatively below (12.3%) the national average, with Eden having a particularly low rate, 18.9% below national level. This reflects the type of employment on offer and the reliance upon agriculture and tourism, whilst showing the generally low value nature of other economic activities in Cumbria. Only Copeland exhibits high earnings, with an average weekly wage of over ÂŁ480 but this is attributable to the presence of BNFL. Managerial and professional occupations are paid quite highly in South Lakeland, over ÂŁ660 a week, reflecting the qualifications of resident population and the employment opportunities on offer.

7.11

The average earnings in any area are driven by the overall economic structure and then the nature of activity within each sector (for instance call centre financial services jobs are much poorer paid than specialist financial services jobs). The two sectors where employment has and is disproportionally concentrated in the Lake District (agriculture and retail, hotels and catering) are the two of the lowest paid sectors nationally. According to the Labour Force Survey, over the 10 years to 2003 average earnings for full-time employees in agriculture have averaged 30% below the all industry level and in retail, hotels and catering 22% below. Given this it is no surprise that average earnings are low in the Lake District, this is coupled with the low earning from self employment from many in agriculture and tourism. Figure 7.6: Wage Rates by Gender, 2003 Females

Eden

Males

Cumbria

Note: England=100

Allerdale North West South Lakeland

Source: New Earnings Survey 2003

Copeland England 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Average Household Income 7.12

The ONS recently produced a series of model-based income estimates for wards in England. They estimate average household income for 1998/99. These estimates provide a good indication of

Ref: A/00124

Page 75


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] comparing levels of average income at small geographical areas82. Gross household weekly income is calculated as the sum of: earnings gross, self-employment, investments, benefits, pensions, income support and other remaining income sources. The average gross household income in Lake District is estimated at £483 per week. At a ward level Keswick has a significantly lower household income, estimated at £420 per week, than Crummock (western Cumbria) which has the highest gross household income at £590 weekly. 7.13

The following figure illustrates net weekly household income after housing costs have been equivalised. This is a rough indicator of the net household income after costs such as: rent (gross of housing benefit); water rates, community water charges and council water charges; mortgage interest payments (net of any tax relief); structural insurance premiums (for owner occupiers); and ground rent and service charges have been deducted. The average net household income for Lake District is now estimated at £309 per week, thus average costs are estimated at £174 per week. After all housing costs have been deducted, Crummock still is considered as the wealthiest ward within the National Park. In contrast, Windermere Town has now the lowest household income estimated at £250 per week. This is because costs (including housing) in Windermere Town are £30 higher to the ones in Keswick. Figure 7.7: Net Weekly Household Income, 1998-1999 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

W in

de r

m er e M K To illo e w m sw n W ic ith k o Bo ut St av L ot el ak B S le ey e u h -in s A rne ap -W m si es ble de t m sid or e As lan G kh d re a La ke C yst m o o s G nis ke W Win ra to in de de r M sm n e e rm me er re U lt hw re e A ll a Bo pp sw it e C w let at ol ne h er to n ss wa an So ite d H u av B t h W in e r s in de En thw ey rm n ai H er aw erd te e Bo L ksh ale w yth ea ne V d ss a ll Br No ey C ou rt h D art gh er m to w e n en l F t V el l G all C os ey ru fo m rth m oc k

0

Note: Equivalised after housing costs

82

The model-based approach is based on finding a relationship between weekly household income (as measured in the Family Resources Survey (FRS)) and covariate information (usually from Census or administrative sources) for the wards that are represented in the survey. This relationship is then used to provide estimates of average weekly household income for all wards.

Ref: A/00124

Page 76


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Business Base New Business Formation Rates and Entrepreneurship 7.14

The rate of VAT registrations in an area is a reasonable proxy measure of the level of entrepreneurship within its economy. Copeland has particularly low rates of new business formation per head, reflecting the lack of dynamism of the local economy. Low levels of entrepreneurship are considered as a particular feature of areas that have been traditionally focused on manufacturing and mining. In contrast Eden has a registration rate of 52.2 per 10,000 adult residents, which exceeds the national (13.2% points), regional (19.5% points) and sub-regional level (21.5% points). The majority of new businesses being formed are in agriculture, wholesale/retail trade and in hotels and restaurants industry.

7.15

The high rates of business birth per 10,000 adults of course largely reflect the fact that the stock of businesses per head of population is much higher in Eden/South Lakeland than most other areas. The rate of new business formation during 2002 as a percentage of the stock was, at 7% and 8% in Eden and South Lakeland, below the regional and national rate (10%). However, it is undoubtedly the case that many more people are in business and start-up businesses in the Lake District and surrounding areas than most other parts of the country. Figure 7.9 shows that the rate of starts per head is at or above average in all sectors in Eden and South Lakeland except for business services â&#x20AC;&#x201C; this is a slight cause for concern as this sector is one of the fastest growing and source of better paid employment â&#x20AC;&#x201C; it does of course tend to be concentrated in large urban areas or location near major urban areas (such as Macclesfield District).

Figure 7.8: VAT Registration Rates per 10,000 Adult Population, 2002 60 52.2

50

44.1 39

40 30 20

32.7

29.6

30.7

Allerdale

Cumbria

17

10 0 Copeland

North West

Source: Small Business Survey

Ref: A/00124

Page 77

England

South Lakeland

Eden


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 7.9: Nature of New Business Starts (VAT Registrations) per 10,000 Adult Population, 2002

ENGLAND

16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Eden

al w ork s oc i and alth ; He Edu c at ion

Oth e r

com mu n ity a nd p erso

nal s er v

ss ac nd b usin e ren t ing a Real esta t e,

, sto rage sp or t Tran

Hote

ls a n

d res

an d com mu

...

taur an ts

pairs Wh o lesa le, re tail a

nd r e

truc tion Cons

ufac turin g Man

Agri

cultu re; F

ores tr

y an d fi s

hing

South Lakeland

Source: SBS

Is there Evidence of Teleworking in the Lake District? 7.16

The Labour Force Survey has published new data regarding teleworking. Around 6% of all people in employment in the UK in spring 2002 were teleworking. Of the 1.78 million teleworkers, nearly 400,000 worked mainly in their own homes and over 800,000 used their home as a base for mobile teleworking. The total number of teleworkers in the UK has increased by between 65% and 70% over the period 1997-2001 depending on the measurement.

7.17

Evidence shows that women use teleworking to work from home, while men tend to use information technology to support multi-locational working. Some 53% of tele-homeworkers were women and the other types of teleworkers were predominantly men: •

79% of home based and

66% of occasional teleworkers

7.18

Women tele-homeworkers were split fairly evenly between employees (44%) and self-employed (56%) whereas men were predominantly self-employed (62%).

7.19

The majority of teleworkers are in the occupational groups of: •

Professional

Managers and senior officials and

Associate Professional and Technical

Ref: A/00124

Page 78


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 7.20

The distribution of teleworkers within industries may reflect the distribution among occupational groups. About 25% of teleworkers work in real estate, renting and business activities, 14% work in construction, 11% in manufacturing and only a small proportion work in the energy and water industries.

7.21

According to the Labour Force study there are three categories of teleworkers: •

Tele-homeworkers, who spend most of their time working at home and who require telecommunications link to deliver work to their employer or client;

Multi-locational teleworkers, who mainly work from their homes and who also require a telecommunications link to deliver work to their employer or client and

Occasional teleworkers, who work remotely at some time during the week who also require a telecommunications link to deliver work to their employer or client.

Researchers also identified another type of workers who work remotely using information and telecommunications technologies but who do not require these technologies in order to work remotely. These were identified as ‘e-Enabled remote workers’. 7.22

However, another study published by the Institute for Employment Studies identifies additional types of teleworking. These are as follows: •

Freelance teleworkers, in contrast to tele-homeworkers, work for a variety of different clients, rather than a single employer. Some interesting examples are found in publishing and the media.

Mobile teleworking has evolved from more traditional work groups such as travelling sales representatives, inspectors or maintenance engineers. The new technologies, in particular the development of portable equipment such the notebook computer, the mobile telephone, the portable fax machine and the ‘office-in-a-briefcase’, have extended this type of mobility to a much broader range of occupations, so that an increasing amount of professional, technical and managerial work is now carried out ‘on the road’.

Issues 7.23

A study by the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology identifies the extent of Teleworking in the UK, the advantages and disadvantages and the policy issues. The study claims that advances in, and access to ICT, are key determinants to the economy. The main benefits are likely to be the flexibility it offers from both the employer and employee viewpoints. Encouraging teleworking will contribute to business competitiveness and reduce car use with beneficial consequences on congestion, energy use and air quality. The scale of any such benefits will be important in deciding its priority in public policy terms.

7.24

The report finds that the main barriers to electronic home working are of a human or organizational nature. They include: •

The conservative nature of many organizations

The cost of information and communications technology purchase and upgrade

Overcoming social isolation

Providing adequate space for teleworking in home

Planning regulations regarding the use of domestic properties for commercial purposes

Health and safety regulations applied in home

Taxation – i.e. whether the teleworker is self-employed.

Ref: A/00124

Page 79


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 7.25

The Lake District has a particularly high proportion of people working from home (23%), although much of this is driven by the sector in which people work (e.g., agriculture 8% and construction 6% and the large number in the tourism sector). The proportion working from home is, not surprisingly, very similar to those in self employment. Unfortunately at present we are unable to disaggregate the nature of employment of those working from home from the Census. However, we have carried out a detailed analysis of the Yellow Pages database and looked at all firms employing 0-2 employees (covering the self employed and potentially a firm run by a couple).

7.26

Table 7.2 sets out the results of this analysis, the key points are There is limited evidence of a significant body of people running small businesses

¾

from the Lake District (or surrounding areas) who it might be argued are teleworking businesses. The information in Table 7.2 suggests only around 3% of all firms (160 in total of which 90 are in the Lake District National Park area, there are a tiny number of IT based business. Even these businesses may well be simply serving local markets. The vast majority of small home based businesses are in traditional sectors –

¾

agriculture, tourism – and in sectors where mobile working is common (construction trades). 7.27

There will be a number of professionals who choose to live in the area and in part work from home and there may be some people who work in/or for (on a freelance basis) larger organisations who choose to telework from the Lake District. However, our analysis and the evidence form the statistics we have been able to assess does not suggest this is significant at present. This view was borne out in the workshops held as part of the study.

Figure 7.10: People who Work from Home, 2001 25% 22.6% 19.4%

20% 15.1%

15%

10%

8.4%

8.8%

9.2%

North W e st

Copela nd

Engla nd

12.0%

12.2%

Cumbria

Alle rdale

5%

0%

Ref: A/00124

Page 80

South La ke la nd

Ede n

LDNP

Source: Cens us 2001


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 7.2: Small Firms Operating in the Lake District and Surrounding Area, March 2004 Inside the Lake District Growing of crops combined with farming of animals (mixed farming) Hotels and motels, without restaurant Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy Other human health activities (beauticians etc) Camping sites, including caravan sites Hairdressing and other beauty treatment General construction of buildings and civil engineering works National post activities Retail sale of clothing Activities, of religious organisations Other sporting activities Manufacture of builders' carpentry and joinery Painting and glazing Museum activities and preservation of historical sites and buildings Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles Installation of electrical wiring and fittings Retail sale of second-hand goods in stores Taxi operation Accounting, book-keeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy Software consultancy and supply Activities of other membership organizations not elsewhere classified i.e. tourist attractions Agricultural service activities Business and management consultancy activities Social work activities without accommodation Erection of roof covering and frames Retail sale of bread, cakes, flour confectionery and sugar confectionery Driving school activities Real estates agencies Social work activities with accommodation i.e. Housing Associations & Trusts Other service activities not elsewhere classified i.e. wedding services

Page 81

May be Teleworking

300 58 41

6 27

64 68

36 33 32 31

46 4 19 16

82 37 51 47

29 25 25 25 24 23 22

12 28 20 5 24 29 3

41 53 45 30 48 52 25

20 18 15 14 14

32 16 18 17 16

52 34 33 31 30

14 13

6 17

20 30

13 13

16 7

29 20

12 11 11

24 14 10

36 25 21

11 10 7

10 13 14

21 23 21

4

19

23

Total 904 563 All Firms 3469 2457 % of all firms 26% 23% Number potentially teleworking 92 69 % of all small firms 10% 12% % of all firms 3% 3% Source: Yellow Pages Database supplied by Experian Note: 1 LDNP is defined by post-code sectors. 2 area outside defined as Penrith, Ulverston, Kendal, Cockermouth and surrounding areas

Ref: A/00124

All

Surrounding Area2 75

375

1467 5926 25% 161 11% 3%

1

1 1

1

1


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Business Locations 7.28

In terms of business location demand, a picture of separate economies is emerging. For example Kendal, Penrith and the M6 corridor generally is buoyant, and there is evidence of unsatisfied demand for commercial sites. However there is limited commercial land available for development, with demand being mainly for freehold sites from indigenous interests. The potential development proposed at J36 of the M6 has the potential to alleviate the pressure for commercial sites in the South Lakeland area, although the concept for development appears to be focused on rural regeneration and tourism rather than commercial development.

7.29

In the National Park there is limited commercial and industrial space provision and certainly there have been few developments providing new business space in the last 10-20 years. Examples of business space (all successfully let) include: ¾

The Blencathera Business Centre (at Threlkeld)

¾

Coniston Industrial Estate

¾

Windermere Business Centre

¾

A noticeable success is the private sector led Staveley Mill Yard development.

7.30

In the National Park itself initial consultations suggest that there is little demand for larger commercial sites although demand is more buoyant for small units. Nevertheless consultations with property agents83 have indicated that when commercial property in the National Park becomes available realistic enquiries are not usually immediate, and this in part may be due to developers not considering the area due to preconceptions as to the strictness of the planning regime. The retail market appears to be steady in Kendal and the Lakes towns.

7.31

An audit of rural workspace was recently carried out across the region for the NWDA84; its conclusions for Cumbria were that: “· The focus of rural workspace provision (particularly in deeper rural areas) in recent years seems to have been on Light Industrial space; there is much more limited provision of office space. · Limited availability of Office floor space across the county, but particularly in South Lakeland and especially in the area to the south west of Kendal and the ‘high value’ zone between Kendal and the M6. · There is potential oversupply of Light Industrial space in the south of the county, with high incidence of Light Industrial floor space in South Lakeland, particularly in the National Park and around Ulverston. · Limited availability of Light Industrial space in the motorway corridor of South Lakeland. · Limited availability of Light Industrial Stock across Eden. · Very limited availability of stock of all kinds in Allerdale. · The lack of provision in the deeper rural areas is pronounced.”

7.32

83

84

The property market for hotels has strengthened over the last 15 years from a previously overvalued position, with quality premises being in high demand. However there does appear a trend to convert accommodation business property (such as B&B’s and Hotels) into residential dwellings so as to profit from the accelerating house price situation in the Park.

Caregiet Cowan and Peil and Co AUDIT OF RURAL WORKSPACE – Final Report June 2003, Rural Innovation, FPD Savills Research

Ref: A/00124

Page 82


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 7.33

On the edges of the National Park there are more significant pockets of available commercial space. For example units in Ulverston (Low Mill Tannery), Foxfield, Cockermouth (Lakeland Business Centre) and Broughton are available, but these developments would not happen without public sector support. There is a large expansion of the Penrith Business Park underway at present – funded by the NWDA which is letting successfully, largely to local firms wishing to expand. Access to Broadband in and around the Lake District

7.34

Broadband provision is either available or likely to be rolled out in the next 6 to 12 months in the key areas of population in and around the Lake District on a commercial basis, and Project Access, a major infrastructure development project sponsored by NWDA and the Cumbria ICT Broadband Initiative, seeks to add coverage across Cumbria to include 90% of population. Table 7.3 below shows the settlements that already have access to broadband facilities in and around the Lake District. Table 7.3 Current Broadband Provision in and around the Lake District Ambleside

Wireless

Braithwaite

ADSL

Cleator Moor

ADSL

Cockermouth

ADSL

Crook

Wireless

Egremont

ADSL

Grange-over-Sands

ADSL

Grayrigg

Wireless

Kendal

ADSL and Wireless

Kendal Surrounds

Wireless

Keswick

ADSL

Lyth Valley

Wireless

Millom

ADSL

Milnthorpe

ADSL

Penrith

ADSL

Seascale

ADSL

Staveley

Wireless

Threlkeld

ADSL

Ulverston

ADSL

Windermere

ADSL

Source: www.cibi.org.uk

7.35

The majority of these settlements are BT ADSL enabled exchanges that have been subject to the fulfilment of a BT set ‘trigger’ that is met by interested individuals and businesses registering interest

Ref: A/00124

Page 83


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] in broadband services. However in April 2004 BT announced85 all exchanges with a trigger level would be enabled regardless of whether or not the trigger has been reached. The ADSL exchanges in and around the Lake District where trigger levels have not been set are: •

Borrowdale

Buttermere

Eskdale

Grayrigg

Holmrook

Lowick Bridge

Nicholforest

Ravensworth

Satterthwaite

Selside

Wasdale

7.36

It should be noted that businesses or individuals located 2-3 miles away from an exchange will not be able to access broadband via ADSL. However, satellite broadband solutions are available almost anywhere.

7.37

In addition to table 7.3 above, a number of settlements are in line to receive broadband services, mainly as a result of meeting BT trigger levels. Table 7.4 shows these settlements and the date by which they will be broadband enabled. Table 7.4 Exchanges in line to be Broadband Enabled

7.38

85

Settlemet

Form of technology

Caldbeck Lorton

ADSL - 30 June 2004 ADSL - 21 July 2004

Bassenthwaite Lake Shap

ADSL - 7 July 2004 ADSL - 4 August 2004

Greystoke Witherslack

ADSL - 1 September 2004 ADSL - 15 September 2004

Grasmere Source: www.cibi.org.uk

ADSL - 29 September 2004

Further to these exchanges, the following exchanges will be ADSL enabled in line with BT’s April announcement by summer 2005 •

Ambleside

Hackthorpe

Arnside

Hawkshead

Bootle

Kirkby-In-Furness

Broughton-In-Furness

Lamplugh

Burton

Langdale

Calthwaite

Longtown

Coniston

Newbiggin-On-Lune

http://www.btplc.com/News/Pressreleasesandarticles/Corporatenewsreleases/2004/nr0421.htm

Ref: A/00124

Page 84


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

Crooklands

Newby Bridge

Crosthwaite

Orton

Culgaith

Pooley Bridge

Glenridding

Ravenglass

Gosforth

Sedbergh

Greenodd

Staveley

Project Access 7.39

Project ACCESS is designed to achieve the vision clearly stated in the Cumbria Broadband Action Plan, which is; 'The ultimate goal should be for all those consumers and organisations in Cumbria wishing to access Metropolitan standard broadband services at reasonable cost to be able to do so'. Partners are currently in negotiation with Treasury to secure funding.

7.40

The solution may be based on a single technology, or comprise a combination of technologies. As well as providing these retail services the supplier will also provide wholesale services to other Access Providers. As broadband becomes more widely available the agenda moves to ‘take up’ making sure provision is in place to allow residents and businesses to make best use of it. The project includes the creation of a 12 person marketing team to undertake demand stimulation activities for broadband across the county.

7.41

This scheme could be extended to tap into the Single Pot funding available through the regional ICT Strategy (England’s Northwest Connected) via the Cumbria Digital Development Agency (to be established as part of the CSP by spring 2004). £106m is available regionally to promote ICT initiatives, notably including broadband take up, and the DDA will be promoting this activity in Cumbria.

7.42

In addition to these broadband enabled communities, connectivity in rural areas is being addressed by the North West Broadband fund backed by NWDA. For example in Hawkshead traders have developed a local broadband provision service supported via a demonstrator pilot project funded by Northwest Development Agency's North West Broadband Fund.

Past Trends 7.43

We are able to pick some evidence of past trends by looking at recent trends in employment (employees in employment) for the 1991 best fit wards. This information is summarised in Tables 7.5 and 7.6 and indicates modest employment growth in more recent years but rapid growth in the early 1990s (in nearly all sectors). In both periods 50% or more of employment growth has been in tourism related activity.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Table 7.5: Employees in Employment in LDNP1 by Industry, 1998-2002 2002 Agriculture and fishing Energy and water Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance, etc Public administration, education & health Other services Total

0.3 0.2 1.5 0.9 11.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 1.5 20.7

Change 1998-2002 Nos. % +0.2 -0.0 -0.0 +0.1 +0.4 -0.1 -0.3 +0.3 +0.3 +0.8

160% -9% -1% 12% 3% -14% -18% 11% 22% 4%

Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 1998-2002 Note: 1 These are estimated best fit wards

Table 7.6: Employees in Employment in LDNP1 by Industry, 1991-1998 1998 Agriculture and fishing Energy and water Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance, etc Public administration, education & health Other services Total

0.2 0.3 1.4 0.8 9.5 0.6 1.6 3.0 1.4 18.7

Change 1991-1998 Nos. % +0.1 0.0 -0.3 +0.3 +1.9 +0.1 +0.3 +0.7 +0.3 +3.4

87% -0% -16% 66% 25% 17% 21% 32% 24% 22%

Source: Annual Employment Survey Employee Analysis, 1991-1998 1 These are estimated best fit wards

Key future drivers 7.44

There are several potentially important drivers for the future: ¾

The prospects for major employers to the south and west of the Lake District are poor and the Barrow and West Cumbria economies face further jobs losses. Overall employment in Sellafield is likely to fall from 12,000 to 4,000 by 2018 (ERM 2003), with reductions in employment at GlaxoSmithKline (Ulverston) and BAE Systems in Barrow also likely. Impact will be amplified by knock-on effects. These provide sources of well paid jobs for skilled worker living in the Lake District. There will be continued move “offshore” of many lower to medium skilled jobs in service (and manufacturing) sector driven by cost advantages. Impact on financial services/call centres greatest.

Ref: A/00124

Page 86


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] ¾

Nationally forecasts are for strong employment growth in sectors which are knowledge based (business services, biotechnology, ICT) - where currently the Lake District has a very low share - and those driven by increases in disposable incomes (personal services, leisure, health etc) - where the Lake District is better placed.

¾

There is no reason to expect the disparity in relative earnings levels between the current core sectors of the Lake District economy and elsewhere to narrow – if anything the occupational and sectoral trends suggests these may widen.

¾

There will be a continuation of movement “offshore” of many lower to medium skilled jobs in service (and manufacturing) sector driven by cost advantages, where these are mobile. The impact on financial services/call centres will be greatest – there is limited potential downside impact here as there are few such jobs and indeed AXA jobs based in Kendal have already disappeared. However, tourism and retail employment is clearly not footloose in this way (so long as there is the visitor spend to sustain it).

¾

An increase in teleworking in its various forms is widely predicted – with up to 25% of the workforce potentially teleworking by 2020 (according the “State of the Countryside, 2020” by the Countryside Agency)

Ref: A/00124

Page 87


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

8.

Experience of Other National Parks

8.1

This section summarises some of the work carried out looking at the lessons from the experience of other National Parks in the UK and overseas. The work is not intended to be an exhaustive review of all activity in all National Parks, but to try and pick out some key lessons. The work was principally carried out by Transport for Leisure (the full report is included as Appendix B). The parks considered were: •

Peak District – selected as the most visited national park and the second largest population after the Lake District, it is of course much closer to major urban areas than the Lake District

Yorkshire Dales – selected as it faces many similar issues to the Lake District in terms of visitor and economic pressures and profile of residents

Snowdonia – selected as its of a similar international and national profile to the Lake District, facing similar pressures although faced with more serious economic problems in some of its communities (e.g. Llanberis and Bethesda)

Northumberland – different in nature to the Lake District (much lower population density, few residents and much less tourism activity), however it provides interesting lessons because of the different approach taken by the NPA in terms of rural development.

Bavarian Forest Park – in southern Germany, selected due to an interesting approach to tourism management

High Tatras (Poland and Slovakia) – National Park facing new financial and visitor pressures, selected to see what responses they are making.

Comparison between LDNP and other National Parks 8.2

Comparisons between the Lake District National Park and other National Parks, whether in the UK or overseas, must always be treated with considerable caution as what distinguishes National Parks is their diversity in terms of landscape, natural history, cultural heritage, geographical location and visitor catchments, and above all perhaps, the political context in which they operate. Common policies towards landscape protection in any given country may disguise perhaps considerable local latitude when it comes to the implementation.

8.3

There are important lessons for the UK in the experience of overseas National Parks which although they may have a more tightly focused conservation objectives, especially as they relate to the study and protection of the natural environment, may still have important lessons in terms of clearer objectives when it comes to the effective management of their main resource.

8.4

Lessons from other European National Parks have to take into consideration broad landownership and cultural difference. Although a majority of the land in European National Parks is in public ownership, this ownership is by no means 100% as some commentators have claimed, and owners of hotels and farming, fishing and forestry businesses situated within Park boundaries may be as vociferous in their views as their opposite numbers in the UK. Land in many European National Parks is owned or managed by the National Forestry – equivalent of the Forestry Commission whose objectives and traditions in the past were primarily commercial. This leaves National Park staff concerned with conservation of unique environments with a quite difficult task to persuade large bureaucracies (whose prime aim is to produce commercial timber) that in a National Park at least, different objectives must prevail, and resources must be made available from often limited national and regional budgets for what are seen as non-commercial activities. This is identical to the kinds of issues addressed with bodies such as the Forestry Commission or major Utility Companies in the UK.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 8.5

Another difference is the absence in most European National Parks of locally elected committees, which in the case of UK National Parks are often able to compromise or even subvert national policies by being more pro-development than national policies would allow, with many major leisure or industrial developments, as well as insatiable demands for residential accommodation, taking place in UK National Parks because of local pressure for employment or commercial advantage.

8.6

In continental Europe, National Parks are science-led bureaucracies, answerable only to central State Government (which in Germany is the Regional or Land Government) and not to the local electorate. Conservation of the environment and of nature in particular is the prime, overriding objective which is not diluted or distorted by local interests or special pleading. However this approach is coming under increasing pressure in countries of former communist Eastern Europe now facing severe resource crises, which is likely to lead to greater compromise.

8.7

Of particular relevance to the Lake District however are the kind of interpretive and education policies in many European National Parks which consider global not just local issues, including the major issues facing the world’s environment as a result of our resource-hungry lifestyles, which the pressures now being experienced on our National Parks exemplify.

8.8

There are important lessons, too, from the concept of Zoning. Most European National Parks are far smaller than their UK equivalent and exclude large settlements and industrial sites such as quarries. European National Park Officers would be bewildered that large, prosperous towns with major tourist infrastructure such as Keswick, Windermere and Ambleside - the UK equivalents of Zakopane - are included within National Park boundaries, as these are perceived as urban areas with very different economic needs and community requirements.

8.9

However the Zoning systems allows managers to distinguish between heavily used areas such as the banks of Derwent Water or Tarn Hows compared with the higher fellsides where issues such as visitor trampling of sensitive peat bogs or eroded footpaths are the major issue. Zoning provides a mechanism to deal with different requirements in ways which reflect and clarify conservation and management objectives. This process ultimately has an economic value, as a well managed landscape is an important economic asset.

Experience of other National Parks THE YORKSHIRE DALES 8.10

The Park lies within an hour’s travel of the West Yorkshire conurbation, with a combined population of around 2.5 million, dominated by Leeds and its prosperous northern suburbs, including Otley and Wetherby, as well as Bradford, Shipley and Keighley along the Aire Valley. The large towns of Harrogate Northallerton, Thirsk, and Darlington lie immediately to the east, with the former cotton towns of Burnley, Blackburn and Preston providing major visitor catchment areas to the south west. The proximity of these large conurbations means that the southern half of the National Park, now within an hour’s drive from central Leeds, is particularly attractive as a residential area for daily commuting, as well as being easily accessible for recreational trips into the National Park

8.11

The “State of the Park” report (2003) suggested that there are five key problems which will be faced by the National Park in the years ahead: •

Popularity - this is measures not just by the number of visitors (which over the last few years seems to be relatively stable) and related problems of erosion and environmental degradation, but also by the number of people wishing to come to live in the area, putting severe pressure on the housing market, thereby excluding local families

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] •

Rural deprivation – this affects only a minority of the local community but for this reason it is in some ways more acute with loss of local facilities such as shops, transport, etc.

Farming has

been especially badly hit since the Foot and Mouth, with the loss of a number of smaller farming enterprises. •

Regional Government - it is felt that changes to local and regional Government structures could be detrimental to the National Park

Mobility – the high degree of mobility enjoyed by the population means that new activities and pressures can emerge

Technology – new technological developments can have an impact on existing economic activity in terms of new forms of activity and economic competition.

8.12

There are two key mechanisms which the Park Authority has brought into being in order to attract new resources to meet these challenges. •

The first was the creation, in 1997, of the Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust, a registered Charity which, though completely independent of the National Park, is primarily seen by the Park Authority as a mechanism to attract sources of funding for practical conservation work to meet Park objectives which would not be available to a local authority or Government agency. In 1998 the Trust was successful in winning a £4 million three year grant aid from the Millennium Commission for the “Environet” scheme. Match funding was brought in from the Park Authority, from corporate sponsors, from the EU and from thousands of individual donors for a huge range of projects, most relatively small scale, which included barns and walls restoration, major tree planting,

footpath

improvement,

(including

the

erection

of

new

footbridges)

village

environmental improvement and a few major “flagship” community led schemes including rebuilding village halls, restoring a youth hostel and a youth education centre. All projects had to have a strong community-led element and be matched by locally raised funding as well as by help in kind. •

After the Millennium Commission ended in 2001, the Trust secured a further £2 million from the Heritage Lottery Fund for the Dales Living Landscape scheme which is due to end in 2004. The Trust has established a reputation as an enabling organisation, able to undertake a variety of fund raising and education related schemes, including a Dales Skills Register to promote the work and training of skilled craftspeople such as wallers, masons and foresters, and to administer the Sustainability Fund on behalf of the National Park Authority (for further details see Appendix C).

Partnership with other agencies forms a key part of the National Parks environment and economic regeneration strategies.

Typical have been major schemes with the Environment

Agency on two major river systems, the Wharfe and the Swale, leading to a number of river and bankside schemes with farmers and landowners as well as wildlife trusts, to reduce erosion, pollution and to create new wildlife habitats, again using match funding from such sources as the Millennium Trust to secure the resources needed. It is true to suggest that nature and landscape conservation, in its broadest sense, is now a major economic activity and source of direct employment within the Yorkshire Dales, using a combination of public, private and voluntary sector funding.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 8.13

Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

Success of the Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust in attracting major new funding to support National Park objectives

The Dales Joint Promotion Initiative developed in partnership with District Councils

The Dales Integrated Rural Development Project as a mechanism to support new business initiative in the Dales.

SNOWDONIA 8.14

Like the Lake District, Snowdonia National Park contains some of the most spectacular mountain scenery in the British Isles which attracts thousands of climbers as well as walkers, and increasingly cyclists given the popularity of mountain biking in several of the forested areas. With the summit of Snowdon itself, at 1,084 metres the highest peak in England and Wales, it is the second largest of the UK’s National Parks, covering 2132 square kilometres. Snowdonia has long benefited form its close proximity to the traditional Welsh Coast holiday resorts, such as Llandudno, Colwyn Bay, Rhyl and Pwllheli, much of it stimulated by the development of railways in the latter half of the 19th century which operated excursions by train and charabanc from the coastal resorts into the interior of the mountains. The private car has largely displaced the rail and bus network in bringing mass tourism into Snowdonia, an estimated 6 to 10 million visitors per annum come to the Park, 89% by private car. 27% are on day visits from home, 22% are people on holiday from outside the park and 51% are people staying within the Park. 71% of visitors arrive between May and September86.

8.15

But faster and easier communication, especially along the A55 coastal expressway opened in the early 1990s, has, by significantly shortening journey times, paradoxically damaged the economic benefits of tourism in Northern Snowdonia by converting many staying visitors from traditional regions of origin such as the Midlands and the North West of England into day visitors. Llanberis, for example, itself a former slate town, shows clear evidence of economic decline and loss of confidence. To some extent the car has enabled a greater dispersal of holidaymakers, for example to self catering and camp sites along the coast and into the Llyn peninsular. This has benefited some of the small towns and larger villages such as Betwys, Porthmadoc and Machynlleth which act as service centres for their rural hinterlands on the southern and western edge of the Park.

8.16

A key development to emerge which linked both transport and economic development themes in Snowdonia was the Snowdonia Green Key Initiative. This project arose out of detailed studies of traffic and transport problems in Northern Snowdonia, including the fact that around 10% of day visitors coming to the area do not spend any money whatsoever in the National Park. There is a stark contrast between some of the poorer communities such as Bethesda on the edge of the National Park and the prosperous day visitors many of whom contribute little or nothing to the local economy. In effect the Green Key concept planned to remove much of the unsightly, uncontrolled roadside parking from areas such as Pen y Gwryd and the Ogwen Valley – the A5 – and to rationalise the parking, with an emphasis on developing park and ride sites, with appropriate interpretive facilities in the fringe communities, where it was hoped that new economic development could be encouraged to cater for visitor needs. If all visitor car parking were paid for (rather than an estimated 30% as at present), it was believed that a network of modern, low emission buses could be funded to provide a 15 minute service on all the major roads in northern Snowdonia, thus giving walkers infinite choice of walks across ridges and between valleys, the fully integrated bus network returning walkers from any part of the area to a parked car, overnight accommodation or the wider bus and rail network. It was hoped that this excellent bus network would itself become a

86

(Source: All Parks Visitor Survey 1994)

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] major attraction in its own right and encourage people to stay longer in the area, ideally for one or more nights, to recapture the greater tourism spend offered by overnight visitors. 8.17

Initial enthusiasm for the scheme however rapidly turned negative as it was believed by many carborne visitors and local tourist businesses that this would severely limited the freedom of the motorist and the majority, car based ramblers who claim to prefer to park free of charge wherever they choose. Following public meetings, an orchestrated campaign, known as Freedom to Choose, used the local and specialist outdoor press to paint a lurid picture what might happen if unrestricted parking was not allowed to continue in terms of visitors no longer coming to Snowdonia if they had, for example, to pay a £3 car park charge. Letter writing and via the Internet succeeded in preventing the Green Key scheme from progressing as first envisaged. It is suggested by Freedom to Choose that any park and ride scheme would be “compulsory” (notwithstanding the fact that there were no plans to close any roads) and that all parking must be therefore totally free with many more new sites created in the National Park.

8.18

The initial stage of Green Key was a clear example of how not to develop a traffic and transport strategy, and illustrated the ease with which any attempt to manage traffic can be misrepresented. It also demonstrated the danger of allowing pressure groups to take the initiative. In its current stages Green Key seeks to engage the protesters in a more constructive debate, to deconstruct what their concerns and issue really are, and though it may take longer and require some compromise, to develop an alternative culture to travelling to and experiencing the National Park without what, if looked at another way, is the severe restriction of constantly having to return to a parked vehicle.

8.19

Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

The success of Tir Gofal as an integrated upland management project supporting the income of local farmers whilst achieving conservation and visitor management objectives

Golweg2020Vision and its success in involving the local community in sustainability projects and widening awareness of sustainability issues

Green Key and the Sherpa Bus Network – both the problems of backlash and the need for low key approaches and community and visitor education and involvement to avoid these problems

NORTHUMBERLAND NATIONAL PARK 8.20

Northumberland National Park is the most northerly of England’s National Parks, and at 1,030 square kilometres one of the smallest. The National Park has only an estimated 2,000 inhabitants, a factor which reflects the sparsely populated nature of the area (itself a result of its turbulent history) and the fact that the Park’s boundaries were deliberately drawn to avoid larger settlements such as Hexham, Haltwhistle, Rothbury and Wooler with their larger accommodation base and services. Excluding these settlements reduces potentially contentious development control issues within the Park. In this respect therefore, Northumberland is more like a typical mainland European National Park, with relatively few local inhabitants or tourist businesses living within their boundaries. Total visitor days spent within to the National Park are estimated as 1.4 million per annum.

8.21

The southern border of the National Park is dominated by a single, major man made feature which attracts more visitor activity than the whole of the rest of the National Park – Hadrian’s Wall World Heritage Site, the most dramatic central section of which lies within the National Park. The 73 mile Roman Wall with its related earthworks which is interpreted in a number of separate visitor centres – Chesters, Housesteads, Vindolanda, Clavoran, and Birdoswald, the latter just outside the National Park). A major development in 2003 relating to Hadrian’s Wall was the opening of the Hadrian’s Wall Path National Trail. This 135km route, which has taken about five years in gestation, is designed to both promote and protect the internationally important archaeology of the site, by careful routing and pre-emptive measures to reduce the risk of erosion. Access to the Trail has been developed in

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] recent years by the ever improving Hadrian’s Wall Bus service, route AD122, which links Newcastle, Hexham and Carlisle, linking in with local train services on the Newcastle-Carlisle Tyne Valley Line. 8.22

The Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership was established in 1995 following the approval of a Sustainable Marketing Strategy for Hadrians Wall. A large range of bodies support the Partnership, including all the local authorities along the Wall, and other major stakeholders, including English Heritage, the National Trust, Northumberland Tourist Board, the Countryside Agency and One North East, the Regional Development Agency. The HWTP have estimated that there are around 600,000 visits made annually to the Roman Wall corridor, of which around 23% are high spending overseas visitors, and 69% holidaymakers to the region. This is likely in fact to be a decline in the total number of visitors coming to the Wall which probably peaked in the 1970s.

8.23

The work of the Partnership has focused on ensuring that as much visitor spend as possible is retained in the local economy by developing more sustainable, longer stay forms of tourism, including walking and cycling, (there is also a Hadrian’s Wall Cycle Way along the corridor which has been developed), and working with local businesses and communities on a variety of community, research and education projects. This has included a Business Development Project which has led to the unified branding of “Hadrian’s Wall Country” tourism product along the World Heritage Site corridor.

8.24

A particularly interesting joint development by the National Park Authority and Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership in this area is the “Champions of the Environment” a pilot scheme which has involved seven local businesses working together with the two main partners to achieve common goals, which it is believed will actually help each of the businesses, both in terms of cost saving and positive publicity. Each business is asked to prepare an Action Plan to reduce the environmental impacts of their activity, such as energy usage, recycling opportunities etc. of their business. Each will be given £200 towards the implementation of their approved plan.

8.25

Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

The success of the Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership, a cross boundary initiative, in developing sustainable forms of tourism and improving community awareness along the World Heritage Site Corridor.

The success of the Hadrian’s Wall Bus, linked to the Hadrian’s Wall National trail and in developing sustainable access and tourism, with consequent economic and social benefits (there are similar rover bus services in parts of the Lake District such as the Mountain Goat services.

The Environment and Enterprise scheme to help farmers and traditional businesses adapt to changing economic circumstances (see Appendix C for further details).

Champions of the Environment as a means to involve local business in sustainability issues (again the Lake District Tourism and Conservation Partnership fulfils this role).

THE PEAK DISTRICT 8.26

The Peak District, Britain’s first National Park, has long been considered to be the weekend lung of the industrial cities of the north. Approximately 17 million people – almost a third of the population of the UK – live within 60 miles or a two hour’s drive of the National Park. It is claimed that there are around 30 million day visits made to the park each year, though other estimates put this at around 22 million. Even the lower figure makes the Peak District the second most heavily visited National Park in the world after Mount Fuji, Japan. A third of all visitors come from the nearby conurbations of South Yorkshire and Greater Manchester, a third from other towns and cities close by such as Derby, Nottingham and Huddersfield, and the rest from further afield. The resident

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] population of the National Park amounts to 38,000 people, many of whom commute for employment purposes into the nearby conurbations. 8.27

There is little doubt that through partnership with the local transport authorities partners, the Peak District has developed probably the most fully integrated public transport network in any National Park in the UK, but whilst it is well used by visitors as well as local people, it still represents less than 5% of visitors to the National Park, with over 90% still arriving by car, despite often severe congestion at popular destination on summer weekends. Other pressure on the National Park include significant erosion of popular walking routes and trails, including the Pennine Way, which in its first few miles from Edale to Kinder and Bleaklow, crosses some of the most vulnerable peat bog in the Pennines, and other popular walking and off-road cycling routes. A range of solutions, including the construction of stone causeways has been developed in partnership with landowners and managers (including the National Trust) to deal with these problems and find acceptable, sustainable solutions.

8.28

The Peak District, which has always been outwards looking and has fostered close contacts with European National Parks through training and information sharing programmes at its major education centre at Losehill in the Hope Valley, is developing something akin to a European-style zoning system for its recreation management and development policies. There are four key management Zone identified by the Park: •

Natural Zone – no development

Zone 1 Small scale developments such as single path or small parking area

Zone 2 Modest scale development with some visitor facilities

Zone 3 More intensive development and visitor facilities.

8.29

All such development would be within overall planning, highway and development control policies appropriate for the National Park (see Appendix C for further details).

8.30

Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

Close, working co-operation between the National Park Authority and local transport authorities and operators to developed the Wayfarer integrated ticketing system and integrated bus, train and cycle network throughout the National Park

The Trans-Pennine Strategic Environment Study as a means of bringing together all key players and agencies to seek more sustainable solutions to major highway and transport development problems

The implementation of Zoning Strategies as a means of establishing visitor management and development priorities.

BAVARIAN FOREST NATIONAL PARK 8.31

The Bavarian Forest National Park is an area of 240 square kilometres of high, mainly forested hills that form a series of high ridges along the German-Czech border in south eastern Bavaria Popular peaks such as the Rachel (1,453 overlooking the picturesque Rachelsee lake) and the Lusen (1,373 with its spectacular view into Bohemia) are linked to well waymarked walking and cycling trails. The National Park Visitor Centre near Grafenau is close to a popular open air wildlife park run by the Park Authority where animals and birds native to the forest – including bear, wolf, lynx, otter, beaver and a variety of eagles – can be seen within large, semi-natural enclosures, as close to their natural environment as possible.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] 8.32

About 1.5 million people visit the Park annually. Most visitors come in the summer months, though the area has some cross-country skiing during the winter. Most visitors are staying visitors reflecting the fact that the National Park is some distance from major centres of population. The city of Munich is around three hours away by road or rail and Regensburg about two hours. Most visitors stay in the small tourist resorts around the Forest such as Spiegelau, St Oswald, Mauth and Finsterau and Grafenau. Contrary to common misconception in the UK, the National Park does have a number of small settlements within its boundaries, including tourist villages such as Altschönau and Waldhäuser, whose hoteliers and traders can be as vocal in their opposition as their equivalents in the UK in terms of any restriction on visitor movement, especially car park restrictions.

8.33

In common with other National Parks in most of Europe, the Park adopts a strict Zoning Management Regime. The most vulnerable areas are protected by being part of the Core or Inner Zone, where access is restricted, either totally or seasonally (e.g. to protect nesting birds), with access restricted to a limited number of carefully waymarked footpaths, often on board walks. Outside the Core Zone is the Intermediate Zone where greater degree of access on foot and perhaps by canoe is tolerated, but no motor vehicles, cycles nor is camping permitted. The third layer is the usually larger Recreation Zone where such activities as cycling, motoring, camping are permitted. Suffice it to say this Recreation Zone, the lowest category of protection in German National Parks is equivalent to the highest degree of protection offered in a UK National Park outside a National Nature Reserve.

8.34

Beyond the National Park boundaries most Parks have a Buffer Zone which as the name implies still brings a high degree of development control, though in some cases significant tourist and leisure development may already have taken place. Sometimes these areas are themselves within specially designated Nature Parks or Landscape Protection Areas, broadly the equivalent of a UK Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. The zoning system means fairly minimal waymarking of routes into the heart of the park, whilst easy circular routes from the main and subsidiary car parks around the fringe of the National Park are waymarked with a variety of attractive colour symbols of local flora and fauna. The helps reduce pressure on the inner areas which can only be reached by the “long walk in”.

8.35

With approximately 1.5 million visitors each year, over 85% of whom arrive in the area by car, it was felt by the mid 1990s that the National Park and its environment suffered from the noise and emissions private cars. During the season (May to October) there is an hourly or half-hourly clock face departure system from the main car parks Spiegelau and Grafenau rail stations operate by lowemission compressed natural gas powered buses, forming a fully integrated network with the recently revitalised “Waldbahn” or local forest train service, which uses new, cycle friendly rolling stock. The buses also have a ‘National Park Radio” internal audio system which gives the visitor short snippets of information about the Park. It helps to put the visitor in the right frame of mind. Bus drivers receive annual special training not just on routes and facilities, but also on national park issues. On one of the main bus routes, between Spiegelau, Finsterau and Bučina (the border crossing into the cycle-friendly Sumava National Park in the Czech Republic) a trailer carries up to 20 cycles for a small fee.

8.36

The bus system is seen as benefiting the region as well as visitors and locals. Now visitors enjoy the pleasures of traffic calming and the enhanced possibilities for walking and cycling (300 km of footpaths, 200 km of cycle paths). Measures are in place for similar traffic schemes in the newly extended parts of the National Park to the north. In an area of declining industries where the economy is not strong, the scheme is an important measure towards the development of sustainable tourism and is also an important educative measure for the visitor. It is now possible to travel to the Bavarian Forest National Park with German Railways (Deutsche Bundesbahn) via Platten and Zwiesel

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] to Grafenau with through ticketing on train and bus (with bike carriage available on all German trains), the total car-free journey from home is now part of the experience on offer. 8.37

Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

The highly effective Zoning system which priorities conservation measures whilst at the same time maximising visitor co-operation and opportunity in ways which help the environment

Close working relationship with local villages to develop truly sustainable tourism product

Superb interpretive facilities which educate visitors on the need for macro environment policies which include restraint in car usage

The IgleBus integrated bus, train and cycle network, probably the best scheme of its kind in Europe.

THE HIGH TATRAS NATIONAL PARKS 8.38

The High Tatras Park is a range of mountains rising up to 2,600 metres within the Central Carpathians on the border between Slovakia and Poland. Their geology consists principally of granite with the Bela Tatra formed from a limestone massif in the early Tertiary period. The Ice Age caused the formation of various glaciers and U-shaped valleys. Gigantic blocks of stone formed what is known as a stony sea under the overhanging crags. The Bela Tatra also has caves with stalagmites and stalactites. Because the Tatras lie in two countries, there are two National Parks – the Slovak High Tatras and the Polish Tatranska National Park. Both National Parks co-operate closely, sharing not only common environmental protection and conservation policies along their mutual boundaries, but a degree of information and understanding.

8.39

The High Tatras National Park – Slovakia. The High Tatras within the Slovakia Republic are a magnet for tourists, for both summer walking and climbing holidays to the summit of some of Europe’s most spectacular peaks, and also for winter sports, most notably downhill and cross-country skiing. There are a ring of well-known tourist resorts around the edge of the National Park with a wide range of accommodation facilities for walkers, climbers and skiers, from luxury hotels, guest houses, hostels and camp sites. The overwhelming majority of the estimated five million visitors a year are staying visitors, mainly from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, but since the fall of the Iron Curtain, increasingly from Germany, the Netherlands and other European countries

8.40

Tourism and five million visitors a year bring problems. There has been an enormous amount of new building, around the edge of the National Park, much of it in rather brutal 1970s “modernist” style. Though there is an excellent narrow gauge electric railway network which connects with the main Bratislava-Kosice electrified main line, private car traffic has increased substantially. Several roads close to and within the National Park have been closed to motor traffic since the National Park’s creation.

8.41

The Tatranska National Park, Poland. The spectacular Tatra range composed of resistant granite, makes a dramatic skyline of sharply edged towering peaks. The Park founded in 1954, covers 21,154 square kilometres with 54% of the Park or 11,514 hectares forming the Park’s Core Zone under the most stringent protection. The Tatra National Park of Poland and Slovakia have a combined area of 145,600 hectares. In 1992 UNESCO recognised the combined Tatras as an International Biosphere Reserve. Up to three million visitors visit the Park each year, which inevitably, in such a concentrated area of visitor activity, causes severe problems. Traffic has grown substantially each year with Zakopane now suffering chronic parking and congestion problems.

8.42

The steadily increasing volume of climbers, walkers and skiers is having an effect on vulnerable areas of the mountains, with significant areas of erosion. In order to increase funds for

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] environmental protection, the Park authorities have imposed a nominal entry fee into the Park area, collected at the main access points (including on main paths, to the mountains). Groups of ten people or more must have an official guide arranged (unless part of a pre-booked touring group), through the Park offices in Zakopane. There is some conflict with skiers due to potential damage to the rich flora on the slopes and the authorities have refused to build further facilities such as new ski-lifts within the Park’s territory. The Park is not afraid to levy a small charge in the face of an overwhelming influx of tourists, but they make clear that these tolls are for environmental protection. 8.43

Significant potential lessons for the Lake District •

The continuing effective nature of the Zoning system to protect the Inner Core and most important eco systems of the National Park

Even with busy climbing and skiing resorts on their doorstep, such as Zakopane and Tatranska Lomnice, the National Park authorities have succeeded in ensuring high visitor management standards and protection on their heartland areas, despite lack of resources.

Charging visitors to help resource environmental protection

National Park Visitor Centres that tackle the big issues as part of raising environmental awareness – global warming, Waldsterben, traffic and not just cosy stories of shepherds, orchids and watermills.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

9.

Scenarios for Change and Implications Analysis of Key Drivers

9.1

The report has identified a great many issues and trends impacting on the Lake District and surrounding areas. In all this work there is a need to sift through the detail and home in on the essentials. We have attempted to carry out this task in Figure 9.1, where we summarise some of the key trends and how they might impact on the Lake District. Some of the drivers and trends are highly predictable, others less so. Some will have a significant impact on the environment, economy of residential patterns of the Lake District. Finally, there many interlinkages between the trends.

9.2

We have used these interlinkages to create several possible scenarios for future changes in the area. These scenarios created for discussion (more could be added) are as follows. At this stage the scenarios and their working titles are for debate only by the Steering Group. Not all of the scenarios are mutually exclusive and indeed there are permutations across the scenarios: Name of scenario

Description

Judgement on Likelihood

“Eastbourne by the Lakes”

Continued changes in residential patterns and in-migration. Higher and higher proportion of dwellings, especially in the LDNP but also immediate surrounding areas, occupied by retirees and some second home owners. Key focus is on main towns and so pressure there. Potential conflict with tourism sector.

High

Digital Derwentwater

Lake District increasingly becomes a location for remote workers, homeworkers, telecommuters who may commute some days outside Cumbria altogether but generally work from home. Also more lifestyle businesses (some employing others) locate to areas. Leads to a “property lite” economy as homes are the new offices. Big increase in extent of knowledge workers in the Lake District.

Medium

Disintegration of hill farming

CAP reform and financial pressures force more hill farmers to sell up, or find alternative sources of income (off farm). Abandonment of hill areas to ranching style operations at best. Landscape starts to alter. Many farm buildings with potential for re-use. Agricultural workforce all but disappears and primary source of income of remaining farming families is other, off-farm sources.

Low (full), high in part or parts

Tourism meltdown

Lake District faces loss of traditional markets due to increase congestion in travelling their by car coupled with growth in short break/day trips focus of tourism and cheaper alternative choices. Loses higher paid visitors from south of England, increasingly reliance from more local/regional visitors (and continued honey pot congestion). Many tourism buildings re-used for residential purposes

Low

Tourism renewal

Growth in wider range of niche markets (such as high energy leisure activities and cycle tourism) and in international visitors. More visitors arriving by and using public transport. Overall numbers of visitors static or declining but spend per visitor rises and occupancy is much flatter all week long leading to an overall increase in occupancy levels.

Medium

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report]

Figure 9.1: Lake District Economic Futures – Key Drivers Theme and Topic

Key Driver (10-20 years)

How Certain?

Potential Impact

Transport and travel Cost of car travel

Possible introduction of motorway toll charges (London to Manchester, £12 one-way) and congestion charging, plus hikes in real cost of fuel leading to a substantial increase in cost of car travel

Low

Could reduce number of UK visitors from South East and day trip visitors from areas within 2 hours drive

Speed of car travel

Increasing congestion on M6 in NW and south of NW (Manchester to Birmingham) – growth of at least 15%

Medium/high

Could reduce number of UK visitors from South East and day trip visitors from areas within 2 hours drive (smaller effective catchment)

Speed and cost of rail travel

Eventual completion of WCML upgrade and improvements in service reliability and times. Reductions in journey times from London (to Carlise/Penrith) of 34 to 53 minutes. Fastest journey times to Penrith would be under 3 hours and Oxenholme 2.5 hours.

High

Improves accessibility by rail to passenger from Midlands and South East in particular – could help short break markets and in a small part counter increased cost and reduced speed of car travel. However, current share of rail visitors is small and even a large % increase would be modest in absolute terms.

Access via air services

Possible opening up of direct flights (low cost) from South East (and Europe) to Carlisle (or Blackpool) – reducing travel time to northern parts of the Lakes and avoiding road congestion

Low

Growth in low cost air travel 6.6% pa with new destinations becoming available from more UK airports. However, growth could be reduced by changes in taxation treatment of aviation fuel

Medium to high

Increasing growth in overseas short break market presenting eventually stiff competition to LD short break market (on overall cost and VFM, especially for those having to travel further to LD)

May be some modest in-bound potential and South East visitor market potential to LD, but airports are in the wrong places

Potential increase in road congestion around honey pots in peak periods, no prospect or plans for road improvement in LDNP

Medium

Trends are nationally for a fall in bus patronage outside London and more use of cars – this could reduce sustainability of current bus services. However, green tourism enthusiasts and marketing of services might increase patronage and so services

Prospects of an excellent public transport network around LD are limited and at present remote. Car likely to remain main means of moving around

High

Some reduction in agricultural support payments in LDNP area, reduced dairying activity in the LDNP

Reduction in stock densities (especially cattle) and possible move to “ranching” style farming, adverse impacts on landscape maintenance

Potential for greater focus on payments linked to biodiversity rather than landscape maintenance (would tend not to favour LDNP farms)

Cost and accessibility alternative destinations

of

Internal travel

Environment and Land Based Economy Reform of CAP

Future of agri-environment payments

Decoupling of CAP subsidy payments from production completed by 2012

Withdrawal of ESA payments and replacement with new Entry Level and Higher Level schemes.

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Low (precise nature of changes not clear)


Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Figure 9.1: Lake District Economic Futures – Key Drivers Theme and Topic

Hill faming viability

Key Driver (10-20 years) •

How Certain?

Farm incomes continue to fall as a result of CAP reform and market pressures

Medium

Potential Impact •

Pressure on farmers to continue to seek alternative sources of income (on and off farm diversification activity)

May lead to further sales of farm buildings (although land will still be farmed) and migration of farming families out of LD

Climate change

Average temperature rises by 1 °C, summer rainfall falls by 10% and winter rainfall increase by 10% but 2020s (by 2050s changes considerably greater)

Medium

Significant environmental impacts on upland habitats. Visitor impacts likely to be relatively limited, may reduce current trend for extra visitors in “shoulder” months

Renewable energy policy

Renewables obligation and other changes all encouraging the market to seek out renewable energy sources, especially wind power. Nationally target to increase renewable generated proportion from 3% to 10% by 2010/11. Cumbria and LD ideal wind power locations on wind energy level grounds. Strong pressure to increase number of wind turbines. Draft PPS 22 would allow small developments inside National Parks and states that buffer zones cannot be created in areas adjacent to designated landscapes

High (already happening)

Potential for substantial development of wind farms in areas surrounding the LDNP, potential adverse impact on views from inside LD and for visitors arriving there.

Evidence on impact of wind farms mixed, concerns that tourism and rural businesses could be adversely affected by inshore wind farms.

Visitor and tourism trends Time and income budgets

Falling time budgets but increased discretionary income generally and growing dominance of ABC1 socio-economic group in the market place

High

Visitors increasing demanding of quality experience, seeking to spend less time travelling and more being at destination. Potentially dangerous for business in LD unable or unwilling to up their quality and invest in their business.

Nature of trips

Continued fall in longer breaks in the UK, but increased short breaks and day trips

High

Accessibility become more important – reducing relative attractiveness of west side of Lake District and increasing visitor pressure on south/east parts close to M6/A66/A590 corridor

Leading to pronounced mid-week occupancy issues, little business tourism to offset this.

Age and type of visitors

Growing importance of older (post-family) visitors (already particularly important in the Lakes) and single person

High

Increases vulnerability of area to shifts in financial position of future older retired generations.

Origins of visitors

Growing globalisation of tourism and so numbers of international visitors to the UK (in spite of temporary dips); growth in short break market from Europe (currently representing just 2% of visitors)

High

LD likely to be able to capture some of this growing market, especially as those making repeat visits to UK seek new destinations. Will need to offer more than landscape, visits likely to be concentrated on honey pots so these will need to “up their game”.

Niche markets

Continued growth in extreme/active sports and eco-tourism markets

Medium to high

LD well placed to cater for these markets and likely to be a growing proportion of visitors. However,

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Figure 9.1: Lake District Economic Futures – Key Drivers Theme and Topic

Key Driver (10-20 years)

How Certain?

Potential Impact

Living in the Lake District Desire to live in Lake District

Continued pressure on housing stock from a combination of retirees, “empty nesters”, remote workers and out-commuters

High

Exacerbates the affordable housing issue, already acute across most of the Lakes. Pressure to in-commute from cheaper areas around LD (largely Barrow, Millom and West Coast). Ironically may reduce pressure from secondhome owners due to price levels.

Demographics of residents

Continued growth in over 65 (retired) population at faster than national pace to reach 35% to 40% of overall population (within overall modest population growth)

Medium to High

Creates pressures on communities and services; likely to be concentrated in towns which have the cheaper housing forcing up prices and making it more difficult for workers in lower paid jobs.

Qualifications of residents

Continued churn of rest of population which leads to the better qualified buying the housing which becomes available.

Medium to High

Increasingly highly qualified and skilled population (although many over 65), potential labour force for knowledge based firms prepared to tap into older workforce. Fewer residents prepared to take on less skilled jobs, potential issue for tourism sector

Increased remote/teleworking

Likely to be an important driver, but dangerous to exaggerate overall impact. Some growth in “electronic cottage working”, complementing other trends. Technology unlikely to be a constraint. Limited evidence of anything of significant scale to date

High

Overall impact is to increase demand for housing in towns and villages; potentially across the whole area. Leads to property-less economic growth

Continued growth in service sector and decline in manufacturing/low value added Changes in employment surrounding the Lake District

Nationally forecast are for strong employment growth in sectors which are knowledge based (business services, biotechnology, ICT) and those driven by increases in disposable incomes (personal services, leisure, health etc). Likely to apply overall to Lake District

High

Demand locally for personal services to service local population and visitors likely to rise. Will their be the labour to supply them?

Overall employment in Sellafield likely to fall from 12,000 to 4,000 by 2018, reductions in employment at GlaxoSmithKline (Ulverston) and BAE Systems in Barrow likely. Impact will be amplified by knock-on effects. These provide sources of well paid jobs for skilled worker living in the Lake District

High

Reduce demand for housing in parts of the south and west of the Lake District. Possible knock-on effects on firms in LD.

Increased globalisation of economic activity

Continued move “offshore” of many lower to medium skilled jobs in service (and manufacturing) sector driven by cost advantages. Impact on financial services/call centres greatest.

High

Area is relatively immune to these trends as has low proportion of such employment and few call centres. However, economic activity made footloose by technology may not come to rural areas at all

Demand from consumers for ethical, organic and sustainable products

Forecast growth in consumer spend on food products

Medium to high

LD well placed to benefit, many producers tuned into these markets and good brand to exploit. Could help farm diversification process and niche firms

Business Trends

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study [Stage 1 Report] Figure 9.1: Lake District Economic Futures – Key Drivers Theme and Topic

Key Driver (10-20 years)

How Certain?

Potential Impact

Other Issues Local government reform

Creation of regional government and unitary authorities in Cumbria

Low – depends on referendum result

Likely to be limited. Would not expect any significant shift in approach to Lake District environment or economy as a result. Possibility of less attention to region’s rural areas in an urban dominated elected assembly.

Local taxation reform

Move to be able to charge second home owners up to 90% of standard Council Tax

Medium

Will have a small impact on demand for second homes in LD

Potential replacement or supplement to Council Tax with alternative (including a tourism tax)

Would create difficulties for more marginal tourism businesses and add to cost of visiting LD

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study

Appendix A Data Tables Table A1: Best Fit Wards for Lake District National Park, 2001 Local authority Districts Ward name

Allerdale

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Boltons Crummock Derwent Valley Keswick Warnell Ennerdale Gosforth Millom Without Bootle Askham Dacre Greystoke Orton with Tebay Shap Ullswater Broughton Burneside Cartmel Coniston

Ref: A/00124

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LDNP

wards partially in the LDNP

wards just outside the LDNP


Lake District: Economic Futures Study Table cont. Ward name

Local authority Districts Allerdale

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Crake Valley Hawkshead Lakes Ambleside Lakes Grasmere Lyth Valley Staveley-in-Westmorland Staveley-in-Cartmel Whinfell Windermere Applethwaite Windermere Bowness North Windermere Bowness South Windermere Town Grange Levens Arnside & Beetham Kendal Castle Kendal Far Cross Kendal Fell Kendal Glebelands Kendal Heron Hill Kendal Highgate

Ref: A/00124

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LDNP

wards partially in the LDNP

wards just outside the LDNP


Lake District: Economic Futures Study Table cont. Ward name

Local authority Districts Allerdale

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Kendal Kirkland Kendal Mintsfeet Kendal Nether Kendal Oxenholme Kendal Parks Kendal Stonecross Kendal Strickland Kendal Underley Ulverston Central Ulverston East Ulverston North Ulverston South Ulverston Town Ulverston West Penrith Carleton Penrith East Penrith North Penrith Pategill Penrith South Penrith West Christchurch All Saints

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LDNP

wards partially in the LDNP

wards just outside the LDNP


Lake District: Economic Futures Study Table A2 Best Fit Wards for Lake District National Park, 1991 Local authority Districts Ward name

Allerdale

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Boltons Binsey Crummock Derwent Valley Keswick Warnell Ennerdale Gosforth Millom Without Bootle Melthwaite Askham Lowther Dacre Greystoke Orton with Tebay Shap Ullswater Broughton Burneside

Ref: A/00124

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LDNP

wards partially in the LDNP

wards just outside the LDNP


Lake District: Economic Futures Study Table cont. Ward name

Local authority Districts Allerdale

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Cartmel Coniston Crake Valley Hawkshead Lakes Ambleside Lakes Grasmere Lyth Valley Staveley-in-Westmorland Cartmel Fell Colton and Haverthwaite Whinfell Windermere Applethwaite Windermere Bowness North Windermere Bowness South Windermere Town Grange Arnside Beetham Kendal Castle Kendal Far Cross Kendal Fell

Ref: A/00124

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LDNP

wards partially in the LDNP

wards just outside the LDNP


Lake District: Economic Futures Study Table cont. Ward name

Local authority Districts Allerdale

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Kendal Glebelands Kendal Heron Hill Kendal Highgate Kendal Mintsfeet Kendal Nether Kendal Oxenholme Kendal Stonecross Kendal Strickland Kendal Underley Ulverston Central Ulverston East Ulverston North Ulverston West Ulverston South Penrith East Penrith North Penrith South Penrith West Castle All Saints

a

Ref: A/00124

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LDNP

wards partially in the LDNP

wards just outside the LDNP


Lake District: Economic Futures Study

Appendix B Case Studies of other National Parks 1. THE YORKSHIRE DALES The Yorkshire Dales National Park covers 1,769 square kilometres of the central Pennines, between the Aire and Stainmore gaps. It is an area defined by the Lune valley and M6 corridor to the west and the valleys of the Ure, Nidd and Washburn to the east. Geologically, the area is defined by uplands created from severe folding of Carboniferous sandstones, gritstones and limestones, with more ancient Silurian slates (typical of the Lake District) dominating the landscape within the north west of the National Park (in Cumbria). The hills, which rise to around 700 metres and are carved through by steep-sided glacial valleys, form the characteristic Dales (fertile pastures, complex patterns of dry stone walls, scattered barns, ancient farmsteads and attractive stone villages); creating one of the best loved landscapes of England. The most spectacular areas of the Park are where geological faulting has exposed Great Scar limestone producing dramatic features such as Malham Cove and Gordale Scar, as well as a complex network of underground caves and watercourses and surface and underground waterfalls. 50,578 hectares of the National Park are within an SSSI, and 1,200 hectares are within National Nature Reserves. Around 20,000 people live within the National Park. Population numbers have shown significant growth of 8.5% over the last ten years as the area has become a popular area to retire to. It is worth noting that there been a significant growth in housing demand over the last ten years, with the inevitable impact on house price inflation and much new house building and barn conversion. Growth in the National Park has actually exceeded its housing growth allocation targets within the current North Yorkshire Structure Plan. The main small towns/larger village settlements within the National Park include Hawes, Sedbergh, Grassington and Threshfield. All have populations around the 2,000 mark through there are a number of larger villages and market towns that encircle the Park boundaries, including Gargrave, Hellifield, Settle, Ingleton, Kirkby Stephen, Richmond, Pateley Bridge, Leyburn, Skipton, Addingham and Ilkley. These areas are all under similar pressure for residential accommodation. Superficially at least, the National Park area is economically buoyant, with high levels of car ownership and unemployment at a mere 1.8% (though there may be significant hidden or exported unemployment as young people leave the area to seek work outside, to be replaced by older, retired people – over 21% of the population are classified as retired). There are, however, pockets of severe deprivation and rural need in some of the villages, especially in the north of the National Park. 12.8% of local employment is in agriculture compared with 11% working in hotels and catering. There are also a growing number of small businesses in the Dales, including IT-led businesses, reflecting the attraction of the area as a working environment. Within an hour’s drive lies the West Yorkshire conurbation, with a combined population of around 2.5 million. This area is dominated by Leeds and its prosperous our northern suburbs, including Otley and Wetherby, as well as Bradford, Shipley and Keighley along the Aire Valley. The large towns of Harrogate, Northallerton, Thirsk and Darlington lie immediately to the east, with the former cotton towns of Burnley, Blackburn and Preston providing major visitor catchment areas to the south west. The proximity of these large conurbations means that the southern half of the National Park, now within an hour’s drive from central Leeds, is particularly attractive as a residential area for daily commuting, as well as being easily accessible for recreational trips into the National Park. Over 92% of visitors arrive by private car (mainly on the main road network out of the conurbation – A660/A65/B6160 – from Leeds, the A629/B6265 from Bradford, the A682 from East Lancashire, the A59/B6165 from Harrogate, and the A684 from the north west and Darlington). The Park has retained, and in recent years, improved its public transport network, including the reopening (in 1986) of local stations on the Leeds-Settle-Carlisle railway (trains every 2 -3 hours), the electrification of local train services to Ilkley and Skipton and the enhancement of the local bus network, including the Dalesbus Sunday network. However it remains true that for most journeys access is quicker by car. Owing to a lack of a fully integrated ticketing system (such as that enjoyed by the Peak District) it is usually significantly cheaper to travel by car than using the local bus and train network. There are no traffic management schemes in operation in the park though there are some limited parking controls that operate in the larger village centres.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study Traffic congestion is generally confined to the busiest villages at peak times (e.g. summer Sunday afternoons) but most main roads suffer from heavy traffic levels, intrusive noise and significant traffic danger during busy weekends. An estimated 8.3 million visitor days were spent in the National Park in 199487. 46% of these visits were undertaken by day visitors, 56% were staying visitors, generating an estimated £89 million per annum and creating a total of 2,500 full and part time jobs. Declining numbers of visitors at National Park Centres over the last decade suggest that the total number of visitors may have reduced even before the impact of FMD in 2001. This may also reflect changing visitor behaviour patterns with more repeat visitors who are less likely to use visitor centres – (there have been no detailed visitor surveys since 1994). A majority of visitors in terms of trips made are day visitors, but a there is a higher percentage of staying visitors in the two main northern Dales of Wensleydale and Swaledale. Staying visitors are strongly concentrated into the prime summer months, though in recent years the season has noticeably extended into the autumn and winter months, reflecting the popularity of walking, and to a lesser extent cycling. To broaden out the tourism base and to develop more sustainable forms of tourism in the National Park, the Yorkshire Dales Joint Tourism Promotion Initiative was established in 1996, a public sector partnership made up of the three District Councils (Craven, Richmondshire and South Lakeland) and the National Park Authority working together to promote the area in “sustainable” ways. The Initiative works with small tourist attraction businesses and accommodation providers in particular to promote the Dales in an integrated way with combined promotional material, including a web site and combined booking arrangement. The “State of the Park” report (2003) suggested that there are five key problems which will be faced by the National Park in the years ahead: •

Popularity - This is measured not just by the number of visitors (which over the last few years seems to be relatively stable) and related problems of erosion and environmental degradation, but also by the number of people wishing to come to live in the area. This is putting severe pressure on the housing market and thereby excluding local families.

Rural Deprivation – This affects only a minority of the local community (which in some ways makes the problem more acute). Associated are the loss of local facilities such as shops and transport. Farming has been especially badly hit since FMD, with the loss of a number of smaller farming enterprises.

Regional Government - It is felt that changes to local and regional Government structures could be detrimental to the National Park.

Mobility – The high degree of mobility enjoyed by the population means that new activities and pressures can emerge.

Technology – New technological developments can have an impact on existing economic activity in terms of new forms of activity, economic competition.

There are two key mechanisms which the Park Authority has brought into being in order to attract new resources to meet these challenges. The first was the 1997 creation of the “Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust”, a registered Charity which, though completely independent of the National Park, is primarily seen by the Park Authority as a mechanism to attract sources of funding (for practical conservation work to meet objectives) which would not be available to a local authority or Government agency. In 1998 the Trust was successful in winning a £4 million three-year grant aid from the Millennium Commission for the “Environet” scheme. Match funding was brought in from the Park Authority, corporate sponsors, the EU and thousands of individual donors for a huge range of projects, most relatively small scale, which included barns and walls restoration, major tree planting, footpath improvement (including the erection of new footbridges), village environmental improvement and a few major “flagship” community-led schemes (including rebuilding village halls, restoring a youth hostel and a youth education centre). All projects had to have a strong community-led element and be matched by locally raised funding as well 87

CLR/JMP All Parks Visitor Survey 1995

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study as by help in kind. Many of the partners for individual projects have been small farmers and landowners who have been able to complete projects (employing local labour) which otherwise would not have been affordable. After the Millennium Commission ended in 2001, the Trust secured a further £2 million from the Heritage Lottery Fund for the Dales Living Landscape scheme (which is due to end in 2004). The Trust has established a reputation as an enabling organisation, able to undertake a variety of fund raising and education related schemes. This includes a Dales Skills Register to promote the work and training of skilled craftspeople such as wallers, masons and foresters, and administing the Sustainability Fund on behalf of the National Park Authority. However large funding sources are proving increasingly difficult to attract, and it is likely that the Trust’s enabling role will continue, its small team of project offices able to manage projects on behalf of other organisation, and provide skilled consultancy support whilst continuing to raise significant funds from a variety of sources for National Park and community led environmental schemes. Partnership with other agencies forms a key part of the National Parks Environment and Economic Regeneration Strategies. Typical have been major schemes with the Environment Agency on two major river systems, the Wharfe and the Swale. This lead to a number of river and bankside schemes with farmers and landowners as well as wildlife trusts, to reduce erosion, pollution and to create new wildlife habitats (again using match funding from such sources as the Millennium Trust to secure the resources needed). It is true to suggest that nature and landscape conservation, in its broadest sense, is now a major economic activity and source of direct employment within the Yorkshire Dales, using a combination of public, private and voluntary sector funding. Another recent project established jointly by DEFRA, the National Park Authority, Yorkshire Forward and the Regional Development Agency is the “Dales Integrated Rural Development Project”. This is a threeyear initiative, now in its second year, which arose directly out of the economic catastrophe of FMD and is designed to help secure economic recovery. A small team of officers are working with local authorities, local businesses and voluntary bodies to help develop the potential added value the environmental assets of the area can bring to economic activity. One initiative so far has been to establish a “Dales Heritage Forum” to examine ways in which sustainable tourism can be developed around existing heritage assets. A network of walking and cycling trails is being developed around some of the larger villages to encourage longer stays in the area, and further work is planned with farmers and local businesses to encourage a variety of diversification schemes in the area. Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

Success of the Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust in attracting major new funding to support National Park objectives.

The Dales Joint Promotion Initiative developed in partnership with District Councils.

Partnership as a way of creating and drawing down funding for a variety of new initiatives.

The Dales Integrated Rural Development Project as a mechanisms to support new business initiative in the Dales.

2. SNOWDONIA Like the Lake District, Snowdonia National Park contains some of the most spectacular mountain scenery in the British Isles, attracting thousands of climbers, walkers and increasingly cyclists. It is the second largest of the UK’s National Parks, covering 2132 square kilometres. As well as its impressive mountain peaks and glacial lakes, it is noted for ancient woodlands of native oak, ash, rowan and hazel along the hillsides and in the valleys. Snowdonia also boasts a 37km long coastline, containing much fine dune and estuary scenery, including an internationally important Ramsar wetland. 36,360 hectares of land are covered by SSSI, with 5,731 of National Nature Reserve and a further 373 hectares is an International Biosphere Reserve. In terms of cultural heritage there is a World Heritage Site (Harlech Castle) and 340 Scheduled ancient monuments within the Park. Both within and around the edges of the National Park there is considerable industrial heritage, mostly relating to slate quarrying and mining – resulting in a fascinating industrial heritage, including narrow gauge industrial railway lines, several of which have been rebuilt in recent years as successful tourist

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study routes (e.g. Llanberis Lake; between Twyn and the Tal y Llyn valley; or through the Dinas valley at Corris). The total population within the National Park is 26,367 and there is evidence of steady growth and inmigration (the number of actual households increased from 10,686 in 1991 to 11,211 in 2001). Between 1981 and 1991, the population grew by 6%. This trend may reflect a national trend towards smaller households as well as the aging population, but also may indicate pressure on Snowdonia in terms of people wishing to move into the limited housing stock within the area. There are no large towns within the National Park, but some quite large villages such as Llanberis, Betwys y Coed and Bala which are prime tourist destinations. Unemployment is lower than the national average, with 45% of people over 18 currently in employment and only 3.5% unemployed. Around 65% of the population are Welsh speaking, a decline from 70% in 1881, reflecting the fact that many of the new migrants are likely to be English. However the situation is somewhat different within the communities in the former slate quarrying towns and villages, namely Blaenau Ffestiniog (totally enclosed in an island of industrial dereliction) and other villages immediately outside the Park boundary, such as Bethesda, Dinorwig and Nantle, and even parts of Bangor and Caernarfon, which are among the most economically depressed areas in the whole of Wales. These areas receive relatively little direct benefit from the tourist trade or the visitor traffic that drives through their settlements. Settlements such as Porthmadoc in the west have undergone a revival in recent years, partly due to the success of the nearby coastal marinas and also the Ffestiniog Railway. An especially imaginative scheme designed to create more sustainable development is Golweg2020Vision, led by the National Park Authority in panel Sustainable Gwynedd. It is largely funded by a Welsh Assembly Government’s Environmental Sustainability Fund of £750,000. Over 72 community led projects have been funded in the Park, including woodland conservation schemes, footpath restoration and community events (such as a popular Sustainability Fair), aimed with balancing the needs of the community with an awareness of the need to protect a special environment, and at the same time creating new employment opportunities, much of it aimed at young people in particular. One particular project to benefit the farming community has been work by the National Park Authority to develop and market Snowdonia Lamb as a distinctive, high quality consumer brand. In terms of support for hill farmers, Snowdonia was one of the first areas of upland Wales to benefit from the Countryside Council for Wales’ Tir Cymen, a scheme to involve local farmers directly in the maintenance and conservation of the landscape, including the creation of new access opportunities and the maintenance of the rights of way network. Now known as Tir Gofal it has been combined with the Environmentally Sensitive Area scheme. In Snowdonia Tir Gofal is managed jointly by CCW and the National Park Authority, and provides a useful source of additional income to hill farmers as well as a cost effective way of meeting conservation objectives and improving access for visitors, thereby helping to improve the area’s tourism infrastructure. The concentration of visitors on Snowdon itself - 350,000 visitors climb or take the mountain railway to the sumit - has produced its own specific problems, including severe erosion of many of the mountain paths and trails. The Snowdon Uplands Path Partnership, consisting of the Park Authority, the National Trust, CCW and supported by the West Wales and Valleys EU Objective One programme, has worked since 1999 to secure major improvements and restoration of the path network. The National Park is crossed by a number of busy major roads, including the A5 between the Midlands, Betwys y Coed and Bangor, the A487 and A470 arterial roads that cross through the Park from the south to north, and the A494 from Wrexham to Dolgellau. The main traffic artery is however the A55 coastal expressway which links Holyhead and the coastal resorts to the M6. The development of this road has taken much of the traffic away from the narrow and circuitous A5, but has also turned much of Snowdonia into a day visit destination from the Midlands and Great Manchester. Snowdonia has long benefited from its close proximity to the traditional Welsh Coast holiday resorts, such as Llandudno, Colwyn Bay, Rhyl and Pwllheli, with tourism to the Park stimulated by the development of railways in the latter half of the 19th century which operated excursions by train and charabanc from the coastal resorts into the interior of the mountains. The former branch line from Caernarfon to Llanberis, for example, fed into the Snowdon Mountain Railway, which soon developed into a centre for walking and climbing. The private car has largely displaced the rail and bus network in

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study bringing mass tourism into Snowdonia. An estimated 6 to 10 million visitors per annum come to the Park, 89% by private car. 27% are on day visits from home, 22% are people on holiday from outside the park and 51% are people staying within the Park. 71% of visitors arrive between May and September88. Faster and easier communication, especially along the A55 coastal expressway, has significantly shortened journey times and hence paradoxically damaged the economic benefits of tourism in Northern Snowdonia (by converting many staying visitors from traditional regions of origin such as the Midlands and the North West of England into day visitors). Llanberis, for example, shows clear evidence of economic decline and loss of confidence. To some extent the car has enabled a greater dispersal of holidaymakers – for example to self catering and camp sites along the coast and into the Llyn peninsular. This has benefited some of the small towns and larger villages such as Betwys, Porthmadoc and Machynlleth which act as service centres for their rural hinterlands on the southern and western edge of the Park. Snowdonia National Park is especially well served by public transport. There is a direct main rail line along the coast to the north of the Park between Crewe, Manchester and Holyhead, with frequent local and express services. There are links at Llandudno Junction along the scenic Conwy Valley branch line to Blaenau Ffestiniog (where it connects with the Ffestiniog narrow gauge steam railway to Porthmadoc), and also from Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Shrewsbury (again with links to the Talyllyn steam railway). The steam lines of Snowdonia and central Wales form a distinct tourism product in their own right - “The Great Little Trains of Wales” brand received a significant boost in 2003 with the opening of the Welsh Highland Railway from Caernarfon as far as Rhydd Dhu on the foothills of Snowdon. In terms of bus services both Conwy and Gwynedd Councils operate one of the best, and most fully integrated bus networks in any rural area of the British Isles, with comprehensive timetable booklets issues twice a year. In addition the two authorities jointly promote the successful “Sherpa” bus network, an integrated network of bus services, linking into train services, which serve the whole of the northern area of the National Park. There are a range of multi-modal tickets available, such as the Gwynedd Red Rover (valid on the Conwy Branch line as well as the bus network) and the highly successful Wales Flexi Pass which in both national and regional forms offers unlimited travel on the rail and local bus network. A key development to emerge which links both transport and economic development themes in Snowdonia was been the “Snowdonia Green Key Initiative”. This project arose out of detailed studies of traffic and transport problems in Northern Snowdonia, including the fact that around 10% of day visitors coming to the area do not spend any money whatsoever in the National Park. There is a stark contrast between some of the poorer communities such as Bethesda on the edge of the National Park and the prosperous day visitors many of whom contribute little or nothing to the local economy. The concept of park and ride is not new in Snowdonia. It is noteworthy that the Sherpa bus originated from a successful pioneering park and ride bus service along the Llanberis Pass in the 1970s, including an extensive area of parking restriction along the pass itself. Financial restraints in the 1980s forced cutbacks in the service and neglect even of the still existing roadside parking restrictions. A management group of officers from the National Park Authority, the two unitary authorities, Gwynedd and Conwy, the Wales Tourist Board, Countryside Council for Wales and the Wales Development Agency was established and a Project Officer appointed. It was hoped to secure EU Objective One funding to meet some of the capital costs of the scheme. In effect the Green Key concept planned to remove much of the unsightly, uncontrolled roadside parking from areas such as Pen y Gwryd and the Ogwen Valley – the A5 – and to rationalise the parking, with an emphasis on developing park and ride sites, with appropriate interpretive facilities in the fringe communities, where it was hoped that new economic development could be encouraged to cater for visitor needs. If all visitor car parking spaces were paid for (rather than an estimated 30% at present), it was believed that a network of modern, low emission buses could be funded to provide a 15 minute service on all the major roads in northern Snowdonia, thus giving walkers infinite choice of walks across 88

Source: All Parks Visitor Survey 1994

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study ridges and between valleys. The fully integrated bus network would return walkers from any part of the area to a parked car, overnight accommodation or the wider bus and rail network. It was hoped that this bus network would itself become a major attraction in its own right and encourage people to stay longer in the area, ideally for one or more nights, to recapture the greater tourism spend offered by overnight visitors. Initial enthusiasm for the scheme however rapidly turned negative as it was believed by many car-borne visitors and local tourist businesses that this would severely limited the freedom of the motorist. Many car based ramblers claimed to prefer to park free of charge wherever they choose. The case was not helped, in 2002, by attempts to restrict fly parking on a Bank Holiday weekend along the Ogwen Valley without launching the alternative bus network. Following public meetings, an orchestrated campaign, known as “Freedom to Choose”, used the local and specialist outdoor press to paint a lurid picture what might happen if unrestricted parking was not allowed to continue (in terms of visitors no longer coming to Snowdonia if they had, for example, to pay a £3 car park charge). Letter writing and campaigns via the Internet succeeded in preventing the Green Key scheme from progressing as first envisaged. It was suggested by Freedom to Choose that any park and ride scheme would be “compulsory” (notwithstanding the fact that there were no plans to close any roads) and that all parking must be therefore totally free with many more new sites created in the National Park. The initial stage of Green Key was a clear example of how not to develop a traffic and transport strategy, and it illustrated the ease with which any attempt to manage traffic can be misrepresented. It also demonstrated the danger of allowing pressure groups to take the initiative. In its current stages Green Key seeks to engage the protesters in amore constructive debate, to deconstruct what their concerns and issue really are, and through it may take longer and require some compromise, to develop an alternative culture to travelling to and experiencing the National Park without what, if looked at another way, is the severe restriction of constantly having to return to a parked vehicle. Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

The success of Tir Gofal as an integrated upland management project supporting the income of local farmers whilst achieving conservation and visitor management objectives.

The Snowdonia Uplands Paths Project.

Golweg2020Vision and its success in involving the local community in sustainability projects and widening awareness of sustainability issues.

Green Key and the Sherpa Bus Network – both the problems of backlash and the need for low key approaches and community and visitor education and involvement to avoid these problems. 3. NORTHUMBERLAND NATIONAL PARK Northumberland National Park is the most northerly of England’s National Parks, and at 1,030 square kilometres one of the smallest. It is a dramatic, open landscape of high fell country, rough pastures, craggy outcrops, peat bog and heather moorlands and is dominated by the Cheviot range which rises to 825 metres on Cheviot itself. The spine of the hills carries the northern section of the 432 km Pennine Way, Britain’s oldest National Trail, which terminates at Kirk Yetholm on the Scottish border. The Cheviot Hills are penetrated by a series of narrow, intimate valleys, such as Redesdale, Croquetdale and along the Harthope Burn. These are characterised by scattered woodlands and flower rich meadows. A notable feature is the number of prehistoric settlements and fortifications overlooking the valleys, as well as many medieval fortified bastle houses, now adapted into farms, relics of constant medieval Border Wars and incursions. The National Park has only an estimated 2,000 inhabitants, a factor which reflects the sparsely populated nature of the area (itself a result of its turbulent history) and the fact that the Park’s boundaries were deliberately drawn to avoid larger settlements such as Hexham, Haltwhistle, Rothbury and Wooler with their larger accommodation base and services. Excluding these settlements reduces potentially contentious development control issues within the Park. In this respect therefore, Northumberland is more like a typical mainland European National Park, with relatively few local inhabitants or tourist businesses living within their boundaries. Total visitor days spent within to the National Park are estimated as 1.4 million per annum.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study To the northwest of the National Park, running up to and beyond the Scottish Border is Kielder Forest Park, England’s largest forest (a 620 square kilometre area of coniferous plantations) and Kielder Water (a larger reservoir built to serve industrial Tyneside). Kielder – with its dense forest cover – is now more heavily developed for recreation than most of the National Park itself (with mountain biking in the forest and a variety of water sports on Kielder Water). The main Visitor Centre at Tower Knowle attracts an estimated 200,000 visitors per annum, with 250,000 to Leaplish Waterside Park. In complete contrast, much of upper Redesdale in the east of the National Park forms part of the 57,000 acres Otterburn Training Area, a huge area of land owned and used by the Ministry of Defence for military training purposes, including artillery range training. Much of the estate lies within the National Park boundary and the public are excluded from these areas for all or a great deal of the year. However it is claimed by the military that this has benefits for nature conservation. However the southern border of the National Park is dominated by a single, major man made feature which attracts more visitor activity than the whole of the rest of the National Park – Hadrian’s Wall World Heritage Site. The 73 mile Roman Wall with its related earthworks which is interpreted in a number of separate visitor centres – Chesters, Housesteads, Vindolanda, Clavoran, and Birdoswald, the latter just outside the National Park). A major development in 2003 relating to Hadrian’s Wall was the opening of the Hadrian’s Wall Path National Trail. This 135km route is designed to both promote and protect the internationally important archaeology of the site, by careful routing and pre-emptive measures to reduce the risk of erosion. Access to the Trail has been developed in recent years by the ever improving Hadrian’s Wall Bus service, route AD122, which links Newcastle, Hexham and Carlisle, linking in with local train services on the Newcastle-Carlisle Tyne Valley Line. In 2003, following the opening of the National Trail, ridership on Hadrian’s Wall bus grew to 26,458 (a 36% increase since 2002). Significantly 55% of users of the bus service reported that they would not otherwise have been able to reach the Trail but for the existence of the bus service. In 2004 it is planned to further expand the bus’ appeal by outreach work with local communities in Tyneside as a means of sustainable and socially inclusive access from urban Tyneside and Carlisle into the National Park. One of the major sponsors of the bus service has been the Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership, a project established in 1995 following the approval of a Sustainable Marketing Strategy for Hadrian Wall. A large range of bodies support the Partnership, including all the local authorities along the Wall, and other major stakeholders (including English Heritage, the National Trust, Northumberland Tourist Board, the Countryside Agency and One North East). The HWTP have estimated that there are around 600,000 visits made annually to the Roman Wall corridor, of which around 23% are high spending overseas visitors, and 69% holidaymakers to the region. This is likely in fact to be a decline in the total number of visitors coming to the Wall which probably peaked in the 1970s. The work of the Partnership has focused on ensuring that as much visitors spend as possible is retained in the local economy by developing more sustainable, longer stay forms of tourism, including walking and cycling (there is also a Hadrian’s Wall Cycle Way along the corridor which has been developed), and working with local businesses and communities on a variety of community, research and education projects. This has included a Business Development Project which has led to the unified branding of “Hadrian’s Wall Country” tourism product along the World Heritage Site corridor. One major project which both the National Park Authority and the Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership have jointly developed has been the Environment and Enterprise Scheme. The prime aim of the scheme is to help farmers and local businesses adapt to changing economic realities and to support the diversification of the local economy. The scheme is supported by DEFRA and One North East, but also The National Park Authority has been able to offer grants from its own resources as match funding as a means to achieve National Park purposes.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study The National Park has also been involved with its own Sustainable Tourism Project, using the Government’s Sustainable Development Fund. Funds are used to encourage and support appropriate forms of tourism, particularly walking and cycling, and developing suitable management techniques to help minimise any negative impacts. Work is also undertaken with private businesses to develop better environmental management practices within the National Park. A particular interesting joint development by the National Park Authority and Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership in this area is the “Champions of the Environment” – a pilot scheme which has involved seven local businesses working together with the two main partners to achieve common goals, which it is believed which actually help each of the businesses, both in terms of cost saving and positive publicity. Each business is asked to prepare an Action Plan to reduce the environmental impacts of their activity, such as energy usage and recycling opportunities of their business. Each will be given £200 towards the implementation of their approved plan. Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

The success of the Hadrian’s Wall Tourism Partnership, a cross boundary initiative, in developing sustainable forms of tourism and improving community awareness along the World Heritage Site Corridor.

The success of the Hadrian’s Wall Bus, linked to the Hadrian’s Wall National trail, in developing sustainable access and tourism, with consequent economic and social benefits.

The Environment and Enterprise scheme to help farmers and traditional business adapt to changing economic circumstances.

Champions of the Environment as a means to involve local business in sustainability issues. 4. THE PEAK DISTRICT The Peak District covers 1,438 square kilometres of the southern Pennines. It is geologically dividing into the southern White Peak (so called because of its predominant Carboniferous limestone plateaux intersected by narrow, steep sided, fertile valleys), and the northern Dark Peak (an area of high, arid, gritstone moorlands dominated by craggy outcrops and wide expanses of treeless peat moor and heather). The White Peak is noted for its cliffs, caves, screes and pale scars, its wealth of wild flower on pastures or in scattered woodlands; the Dark Peak for its spectacular gritstone edges, and its vast, open heather and peat moorlands, interspersed with huge reservoirs serving the nearby industrial cities. There are 25,297 hectares of open country, mainly in the Dark Peak, formally opened for Public Access, including 1,357 hectares of land in the ownership of the Park Authority itself. These levels of open access are prior to the impending implementation of the Access to Open Country requirements of the 2000 CROW Act. The Peak District was Britain’s first National Park. It has long been considered as the weekend lung of the industrial cities of the north. Approximately 17 million people – almost a third of the population of the UK – live within 60 miles or a two hour’s drive of the National Park. It is claimed that there are around 30 million day visitors made to the park each year, though other estimates put this at around 22 million. Even the lower figure makes the Peak District the second most heavily visited National Park in the world after Mount Fuji, Japan. A third of all visitors come from the nearby conurbations of South Yorkshire and Greater Manchester, a third from other towns and cities close by such as Derby, Nottingham and Huddersfield, and the rest from further afield. It is estimated that tourism expenditure of £185 million (1994 prices) creates around 500 full time jobs in the Peak District, plus a further 350 part time jobs and 100 seasonal jobs. Around 16.2 million visitors arrive by car, a further 3.36 million just “drive through”, whilst 1.5 million arrive by public transport and 1.2 million on foot or by cycle. The resident population of the National Park amounts to 38,000 people, many of whom commute for employment purposes by cark train or bus into the nearby conurbations. Apart from tourism and agriculture, the major source of employment within and around the National Park, is quarrying because of the huge reserves of limestone used for the cement, chemical, steel and construction industries. Even though most of the existing quarries lie outside the National Park boundary, which were largely drawn to exclude the working quarries, in 1993 6.1 million tonnes of rock were extracted from within

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study the National Park. The resorts of Buxton and Matlock are also outside the Park boundaries. Bakewell, headquarters of the Park Authority, is the largest settlement. In term of transport provision, the Peak District National Park enjoys and suffers both the advantages and disadvantages of being situated between two major conurbations (South Yorkshire and Greater Manchester, with the East Midlands to the immediate south east) and also and along major communication routes between the conurbations. The advantage is that communications are good both to and within the National Park, with a number of major trunk roads directly across the National Park, including the A628 the main Manchester-Sheffield highway, plus the A6, the A625 and the A635 to the north. The main Manchester-Sheffield railway follows the Hope Valley and as well as through express trains there are good local services to and form such key stations as Grindleford, Hope, Bamforth, Edale and Chinley, as well as commuter railways to the edge of the park at Glossop, New Mills, Buxton, Matlock, Marsden and Penistone. The National Park is also extremely well served by bus. It has several important inter-urban routes such as the Trans-Peak Manchester-Derby services and the Sheffield-Hanley service. There are also a surprisingly good range of more local bus service between such key centres as Sheffield to Bakewell and Castleton, Chesterfield to Bakewell and Matlock, Macclesfield to Buxton and a range of weekend recreational services. Another important feature is the well established multi-modal Wayfarer bus and rail ticket which offers visitorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s unlimited travel on their local feeder bus and train networks in the conurbations, on rail and bus services into the National Park and on local, well integrated services within the Park. A budget of ÂŁ300,000 per annum is used by the National Park Authority to support and promote mainly weekend recreational bus networks in the National Park, in addition to the excellent core network supported and provided by Derbyshire County Council and Network Rail. The bus routes also integrate well with popular off-road cycling trails along disused railway lines such as the High Peak, Tissington and Manifold Trails, or along the traffic-free lane (closed to private cars at weekends) to Fairholme above Derwent Dams. There are an estimated 55,000 cycle hirings per year from the National Park Authority four cycle hire centres in the National Park. The National Parkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pioneering Goyt Valley Traffic management scheme in the 1970s led to part closure of sections of narrow road to traffic in the unpopulated valley, with a park and ride minibus service. However the costs of providing the minibuses led to significant reduction of the scheme, replaced by a one way system, in subsequent years. However the Upper Derwent valley, which again has only a couple of farms at its head and no tourist development, is closed to traffic and weekend and a park and ride minibus maintains access. Plans to introduce a road toll scheme in the whole of the Upper Derwent, from Ladybower Reservoir onwards, which would be the first road toll scheme in any UK National Park, have, however, so far foundered because of lack of agreement on a suitable site for the main car park. All public transport services are well marketed not only by the local authorities themselves, but such bodies as the Hope Valley Community Rail Partnership which organises jazz and folk trains to fill otherwise lightly used trains on winter evenings, as well as excellent local publicity aimed at local travellers and visitors alike. There is little doubt that with in partnership with the local transport authorities partners, the Peak District has developed probably the most fully integrated public transport network in any National Park in the UK, but whilst it is well used by visitors as well as local people, it still represents less than 5% of visitors to the National Park, with over 90% still arriving by car, despite often severe congestion at popular destination on summer weekends. This underlines the main disadvantage of the Peak National Park being situated along the main lines of communication between the major conurbations. This has led to huge pressure for constant road improvements. The A628 is now the major industrial highway across the northern Dark Peak linking Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield, with all the associated noise, air pollution and danger associated with such a road. There are constant proposals to upgrade the route to full Motorway standard, which would lead to even more traffic generation and pollution. Ironically the parallel Berne-gauge railway, built to carry heavy through freight traffic to at that time unimagined Channel Tunnel was closed down in the 1970s, and now carries tetras-Pennine Trail walking and cycling route. In order to deal with the growing problems of massive trans-Pennine freight and private car traffic through the Peak District that the National Park Authority has lead a consortium of local authorities and

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study Government agencies to create the Trans-Pennine Strategic Environmental Study. This is a multidisciplined series of studies designed to seek a variety of solutions, including demand management, to reduce the impact of current and projected traffic across the National Park. Concern has been expressed that any proposed increase capacity measures on the A628 could severely damage the National Park. There has been an examination of the whole movement of people ands goods, by different modes, across the National Park, seeking consensus for a range of measures, not just for major road improvements. The South Pennines Integrated Transport Strategy seeks to develop and implement solutions identified in the Study. Other pressure on the National Park include significant erosion of popular walking routes and trails, including the Pennine Way, which in its first few miles from Edale to Kinder and Bleaklow, crosses some of the most vulnerable peat bog in the Pennines, and other popular walking and off-road cycling routes. A range of solutions, including the construction of stone causeways has been developed in partnership with landowners and managers including the National Trust, to deal with these problems and find acceptable, sustainable solutions. Significantly, the Peak District, which has always been outwards looking and fostered close contacts with European National Parks through training and information sharing programmes at its major education centre at Losehill in the Hope Valley, is developing something akin to a European-style zoning system for its recreation management and development policies. There are four key management Zone identified by the Park: Natural Zone – no development Zone 1 Small scale developments such as single path or small parking area Zone 2 Modest scale development – some visitor facilities and Zone 3 More intensive development and visitor facilities. All such development would be within overall planning, highway and development control policies appropriate for the National Park. As in other National Parks, the Peak District also administers the Sustainability Fund and has a range of pro-active policies and projects to foster economic and social well being of tits local communities. Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

Close, working co-operation between the National Park Authority and local transport authorities and operators to developed the Wayfarer integrated ticketing system and integrated bus, train and cycle network throughout the National Park.

The Trans-Pennine Strategic Environment Study as a means of bringing together all key players and agencies to seek more sustainable solutions to major highway and transport development problems.

The implementation of Zoning Strategies as a means of establishing visitor management and development priorities. 5. BAVARIAN FOREST NATIONAL PARK The Bavarian Forest National Park is an area of 240 square kilometres of high, mainly forested hills that form a series of high ridges along the German-Czech border in south eastern Bavaria. Popular peaks such as the Rachel (1,453; overlooking the picturesque Rachelsee lake) and the Lusen (1,373; with its spectacular view into Bohemia) are linked to walking and cycling trails. The National Park Visitor Centre near Grafenau is close to a popular open air wildlife park run by the Park Authority where animals and birds native to the forest – including bear, wolf, lynx, otter, beaver and a variety of eagles – can be seen within large, semi-natural enclosures, as close to their natural environment as possible. Forest timber, though now protected, was long an important economic resource. In earlier days mountain streams were used to transport timber from the forest to the lowland rivers for onward transport. The forest railway was built at the beginning of the last century and roads were increasingly constructed after the Second World War. The forest and surrounding villages were also a centre for glassmaking, with local sand and silica providing the ideal raw material, and charcoal burning and timber

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study used for the process. The original mixed woods were changed by the demands of forestry and glass industries from the Middle Ages until the mid 20th century. In spite of this much of the native species of woodland, including dwarf and mountain pines remain, and since the creation of the National Park great emphasis has been placed on protecting these native species and the unique areas of raised peat bogs, rich in flora and wildlife habitats, which lie between areas of woodland. Most of the Forest within the National Park is State Forest belonging to the Bavarian state with no private owners. About two thirds of the Park has special protected status and commercial forestry work and hunting is not permitted. Individual Trees can reach up to 50 metres in height and a trunk diameter of 1-2 metres or up to 30-40 cubic metres of wood. As part of the conservation management of the forest, there is a deliberate policy of leaving dead trees standing or lying on the ground, as a habitat for a wide range of insects and fungi, encouraging a return to the Urwald or original forest. The decision not to clear fallen trees was made after a terrific storm in August 1983 which damaged 30,000 cubic metres of wood in a few minutes in 90 different areas of the forest. Measures and also not taken against wood beetles, to allow the forest to develop natural systems of protection rather than vulnerable monoculture of commercial forests. The forest is home to a varied fauna and flora with lynx sometimes sighted. There are 55 bird species including capercaile, falcons and the black stork, with a dozen rarities which are listed as being under threat. Some of these are protected in the Park’s own wildlife park. A major threat to the forest is air pollution (leading to the premature death and sickness of trees – “Waldsterben”). Much comes from industrial emissions both from within Germany itself and from areas in eastern and western Europe, especially the older “smoke stack” industries of East Germany and the Czech Republic (although since the early 1990s these have been in sharp decline. However another major source of damage is traffic pollution, including emissions of nitrogen oxides from visitors cars, which can be especially acute during cold weather and the winter months when even on modern cars catalytic converters are not effective on short journeys. In 1987 it was discovered that 50% of the trees were damaged by pollution to a greater or lesser degree. About 1.5 million people visit the Park annually. Most visitors come in the summer months, though the area has some cross-country skiing during the winter. Most visitors are staying visitors reflecting the fact that the National Park is some distance from major centres of population. The city of Munich is around three hours away by road or rail and Regensburg about two hours. Most visitors stay in the small tourist areas around the Forest such as Spiegelau, St Oswald, Mauth and Finsterau and Grafenau. These are good centres for visitors who come for the walking and cycling, with easy access by path or public transport into the Forest. Contrary to common misconception in the UK, the National Park does have a number of small settlements within its boundaries, including tourist villages such as Altschönau and Waldhäuser, whose hoteliers and traders can be as vocal in their opposition as their equivalents in the UK in terms of any restriction on visitor movement, especially car park restrictions. In common with other National Parks in most of Europe, the Park adopts a strict Zoning Management Regime. The most vulnerable areas are protected by being part of the Core or Inner Zone, where access is restricted, either totally or seasonally (e.g. to protect nesting birds), with access restricted to a limited number of carefully waymarked footpaths, often on board walks. Outside the Core Zone is the Intermediate Zone where greater degree of access on foot and perhaps by canoe is tolerated, but no motor vehicles or even cycles, nor is camping permitted. The third layer is the usually larger Recreation Zone where such activities as cycling, motoring, camping are permitted. Suffice it to say this Recreation Zone, the lowest category of protection in German National Parks is equivalent to the highest degree of protection offered in a UK National Park outside a National Nature Reserve. Beyond the National Park boundaries most Parks have a Buffer Zone which as the name implies still brings a high degree of development control, though in some cases significant tourist and leisure development may already have taken place. Sometimes these areas are themselves within specially designated Nature Parks or Landscape Protection Areas, broadly the equivalent of a UK Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. The Zoning system means fairly minimal waymarking of routes into the heart of the park, whilst easy circular routes from the main and subsidiary car parks around the fringe of the National Park are waymarked with a variety of attractive colour symbols of local flora and fauna. The helps reduce

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study pressure on the inner areas which can only be reached by the “long walk in”. In 1982 the National Park House was opened in Neuschönau, on the National Park boundary. Exhibitions all have a strong conservation theme - slide and film shows, a library and other facilities. An outdoor botanical garden and geological area are nearby. There is access through woodland paths from the National Park House to a special animal reserve where birds and animals native to the area (as well as wolves and bears, and others no longer indigenous) can be observed .These include owls, bison, lynx, wild boar, deer, otter, capercailes, ravens and doves. This animal reserve has the advantage not only of preserving native species in semi-natural surroundings, but act as a huge visitor draw, thereby reducing pressure on other, more vulnerable areas of the National Park –a positive management measure. With approximately 1.5 million visitors each year, over 85% of whom arrive in the area by car, it was felt by the mid 1990s that the National Park and its environment suffered from the noise and emissions private cars. Drastic measures were needed. The Park authorities decided to close some cul-de-sac roads in the Park to cars (but open to cyclists) during the daytime (0800 – 1800), limit parking on others and to embark on an environmentally friendly integrated bus and park and ride scheme. A particular busy minor road at Finsterau over the Czech Border which was attracting a great deal of traffic, mainly older, heavily polluting cars form the Czech Republic, was closed to all but foot and cycle traffic. With the help of the Deutschen Umweltstifftung (an Environment Charity) the National Park authorities spent considerable time and effort in the project’s initial phases in persuading and educating the public, including the hoteliers within and close to the Park, into more environmentally friendly forms of transport. The Park set up a Co-ordinator’s office where problems could be identified and ironed out with the help of those involved: the bus companies, the National Park and support staff. This had a very positive effect on local opinion. User-friendly printed matter such as timetables and posters also helped considerably. Good liaison with the local media meant there was regular ongoing and updated publicity. The Co-ordinator’s office became a regional office for the local ÖPNV (local public transport) where the public could bring problems and suggestions. There were also special Action Days in 1998 when free buses and trains operated, which convinced quite a number of people who otherwise would have brought their car. In the first year there was a flood of angry protest letters engendered by the scheme. By year two these had completely died away. The new logo, an appealing friendly hedgehog (‘Igel’) with its slogan ‘Protect the Environment and use the Bus’, was used on all literature and bus stop information, giving the buses a positive image. The Hedgehog Bus (Igelbus) soon became well known and liked by locals and visitors alike, and the logo currently used by some of the hoteliers who were among the protesters in their own promotional literature. The National Park works pro-actively with local tourist trade, including accommodation providers, to offer walking and cycling packages in the National Park, with season tickets on the bus and local train network, guided walks and access to the National Park House and wildlife reservation as part of the package. Cars arriving in the National Park on the area’s main road network are directed to the two main “National Park” car parks where solar-powered car park ticket machines are situated adjacent to comprehensive bus timetable information and details of cycle trails, car park and available roads. During the season (May to October) there is an hourly or half-hourly clock face departure system from the main car parks and Spiegelau and Grafenau rail stations operated by low-emission compressed natural gas powered buses, forming a fully integrated network with the recently revitalised “Waldbahn” or local forest train service, which uses new, cycle friendly rolling stock. The buses also have a ‘National Park Radio” internal audio system which gives the visitor short snippets of information about the Park. It helps to put the visitor in the right frame of mind. Bus drivers receive annual special training not just on routes and facilities, but also on national park issues. On one of the main bus routes, between Spiegelau, Finsterau and Bučina, the border crossing into the cycle-friendly Sumava National Park in the Czech Republic, a trailer carries up to 20 cycles for a small fee.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study As visitors began to use the buses, passengers increased from 100,000 initially to 140,000 in the second year, and the total usage continue to rise slowly. The first natural gas buses started in 1997 with annual running costs of 900,000 DM and only about a third of the cost was recouped from bus fares. The remainder had to come from other sources including state (Land) subsidies and car park income. The bus system is seen as benefiting the region as well as visitors and locals. Now visitors enjoy the pleasures of traffic calming and the enhanced possibilities for walking and cycling (300 km of footpaths, 200 km of cycle paths). Measures are in place for similar traffic schemes in the newly extended parts of the National Park to the north. In an area of declining industries where the economy is not strong, the scheme is an important measure towards the development of sustainable tourism and is also an important educative measure for the visitor. It is now possible to travel to the Bavarian Forest National Park with German Railways (Deutsche Bundesbahn) via Platten and Zwiesel to Grafenau with through ticketing on train and bus (with bike carriage available on all German trains), the total car-free journey from home is now part of the experience on offer. Significant potential lessons for the Lake District: •

The highly effective Zoning system which priorities conservation measures whilst at the same time maximising visitor co-operation and opportunity in ways which help the environment.

Close working relationship with local villages to develop truly sustainable tourism product.

Superb interpretive facilities which educate visitors on the need for macro environment policies which include restraint in car usage.

The IgleBus integrated bus, train and cycle network, probably the best scheme of its kind in Europe. 6. THE HIGH TATRAS NATIONAL PARKS The High Tatras Park is a range of mountains rising up to 2,600 metres within the Central Carpathians on the border between Slovakia and Poland. Their geology consists principally of granite with the Bela Tatra formed from a limestone massif in the early Tertiary period. The Ice Age caused the formation of various glaciers and U-shaped valleys. Gigantic blocks of stone formed what is known as a stony sea under the overhanging crags. The Bela Tatra also has caves with stalagmites and stalactites. Because the Tatras lie in two countries, there are two National Parks – the Slovak High Tatras and the polish Tatranska National Park. Both National Parks co-operate closely, sharing not only common environmental protection and conservation policies along their mutual boundaries, but a degree of information and understanding. The High Tatras National Park - Slovakia The High Tatras within the Slovakia Republic are a magnet for tourists, for both summer walking and climbing holidays to the summit of some of Europe’s most spectacular peaks, and also for winter sports, most notably downhill and cross-country skiing. This alpine region is the centre of Slovakia’s largest nature reserve and the High Tatra National Park (often abbreviated to TANAP). Its pure mountain air is famed in the treatment of respiratory diseases and allergies. Founded in 1948, TANAP covers 509.65 square kilometres, of which 70,000 are specially protected as part of the Park’s Core Zone. The main ridge of the High Tatras begins with L’Aliové Sedlo, a mountain saddle in the west and ends with Kopské sedlo in the east, and is 26.5 km in length. Gerlach at 2655 metres is the highest and the other main peaks are about two and half thousand metres in height. Over 13,000 plant species grow in the mountain meadows and above the tree line. Chamois, marmot and the golden eagle are at home here; the eagles making their nests among the high craggy peaks. A particular feature are over 100 mountain tarns usually of an emerald green or dark blue, and such is their clarity, that in summer you can see to a depth of 12 metres. The highest lake known as the Blue Lake is at 2157 metres. Pleasant valleys, rushing streams, waterfalls and quiet dense woodland complete the scene. The main ridge of the Tatra forms the watershed between the North Sea and the Black Sea. The 1200 plant species, 500 types of moss, and 900 types of algae and countless varieties of fungi are all part of that abundance. Several plants are Ice Age relics including one of the crocus family, a gentian, auricula, forget-me-not and many others. Spruce, firs, pines, larch, maple and beech form the woodland. The National Park area consists of 67% woodland, mainly pines of which 3% are used for timber. 96% of

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study the woodland is coniferous, 4% deciduous. Certain bird, insect and mouse species are unique to the Tatra. In the forest roam red deer, roe deer, wild boar, bear, lynx, wolf, fox, wild cat, rare birds like the capercaile, owls, falcons and in the rivers are trout and the occasional otter. Black and white storks like to nest in the area. There are a ring of well-known tourist resorts around the edge of the National Park with a wide range of accommodation facilities for walkers, climbers and skiers, from luxury hotels, guest houses, hostels and camp sites. These include Strbske Pleo, Vysne Hagy, Tatranska Polianka, Novy and Stary Smokovec, Tatranska Lomnica and Tatranska Kottina. Close by is the town of Poprad with a mixture of industry and some holiday accommodation. The overwhelming majority of the estimated five million visitors a year are staying visitors, mainly from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, but since the fall of the Iron Curtain, increasingly form Germany, the Netherlands and other European countries The High Tatras are very suitable for walkers with centres at the various little Smokovec villages and at Tatranska Lomnica which is also the administrative headquarters of the national par where there are a museum giving details and exhibits of the local fauna and flora and traditional customs. There are over 350 kilometres of well-marked trails, but visitors are advisable to hire a guide for the trickiest mountain routes. The area is also well-known for its high-quality winter sports nationally and internationally especially for cross-country skiing and ski-jumping. The National Park Centre in Tatranska Lomnica contains a research centre, museum and mountain rescue station and is particularly noted for its high level of scientific research relating to many aspects of the National Park’s ecology. Tourism and five million visitors a year bring problems. There has been an enormous amount of new building, around the edge of the National Park, much of it in rather brutal 1970s “modernist” style. Though there is an excellent narrow gauge electric railway network which connects with the main Bratislava-Kosice electrified main line, private car traffic has increased substantially. Several roads close to and with the National Park have been closed to motor traffic since the National Park’s creation. There is also a view in certain quarters that planning was a discredited “socialist” concept and that National Park planning and development control restrictions should be relaxed. The Slovak economy is still suffering from the collapse of much of the old Soviet Union dependent economy, and TANAP has limited funds. Visitor education and visitor management requires significant new resources which are difficult for the National Park to source. With its ageing infrastructure and lack of resources TANAP could be facing a difficult future. The Tatranska National Park, Poland The spectacular Tatra range composed of resistant granite, makes a dramatic skyline of sharply edged towering peaks. The Park founded in 1954, covers 21,154 square kilometres with 54 % of the Park or 11,514 hectares forming the Park’s Core Zone under the most stringent protection. The Tatra National Park of Poland and Slovakia have a combined area of 145600 hectares. In 1992 UNESCO recognised the combined Tatras as an International Biosphere Reserve. There is some contrast geologically speaking with the western part of the Tatra massif and the north-eastern ridge of Belanska Tatra which are made up of Mesozoic limestone and dolomite, while the eastern ridge is made up of Paleozoic granite. The Tatranska National Park covers the whole area of the Polish Tatras which rise to a height of 1700 metres. The highest peak is the Rysy is 2499 metres, and the terrain is varied consisting of great evidence of glacial activity with post-glacial hollows, numerous very beautiful mountain lakes, such as Morskie Oho at 34.5 hectares and at a level of 1393 metres. There are 550 caves with the Wielka Sniezna being the largest in Poland at 814 m depth and 20 km in length. The Tatras are situated at the source of the River Dunajec with a varied terrain of marshy ground, contrast with alpine meadows, craggy cliffs and mixed woods, streams, brooks and picturesque waterfalls. The lower mountain forest reaches a height of 1,250 m above sea level and is mainly spruce which were planted in the nineteenth century, succeeding the original beech and fir forests. There is coniferous forest - mainly fir - above this level and at the height of 1,500 -1,800 m dwarfed pine is predominant. Above are the mountain slopes in the alpine zone with alpine pastures where the Tatra larkspur, delphinium oxysepalum can be found. In the final zone are the topmost peaks. Among the 250 species of mountain and alpine plants, many are like the edelweiss are stringently protected. Rarities among the animal species include marmot,

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study bear, chamois, red deer, golden eagle and falcon. There are quantities of insect life and over 300 species of butterfly including the Apollo butterfly. Industrial heritage like the former mining and iron industry have left their traces in the area, while way-side shrines, and shepherds’ huts make attractive points of interest. Areas of mountain willow and spruce monoculture are a reminder of some former industrial use and traditional farming is still practiced. There is a cable car to Kasprowy Wierch (1895m), and the most popular routes lead to Chocholowska, Kosieliska, Strazyska and Grasienicowa Valleys and the summit of Mount Giewont (1894m). Zakopane is the major regional tourist centre and gateway to the Park. It is sometimes called Poland’s winter capital given its popularity as a fashionable resort with all classes of society, though it is heavily visited all year round. It dates its rapid rise with the coming of the railway in the late nineteenth century. Several streets have buildings in characteristic mountain architectural style and the local museum offers a good introduction to its regional culture, with the National Park Centre offering some exceptionally good displays, which look at wider environmental issues such a global pollution, rather than merely focusing on local history more localised National Park issues as in the UK. A funicular railway from the city centre to the top of Gubalowka Hill offers less inclined to climb on their own two feet visitors a sweeping panorama of the Tatras. Annually Zakopane hosts the International Festival of Highland Folklore which underlines its geographical position with its borders to the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Zakopane are also within easy reach - about two hours’ travel time by road or rail - from the historic city of Krakow, a stylish tourist attraction in its own right. Visitors from the industrial town of Katowice and other heavily populated areas of Polish Silesia also regard the Tatras as their natural escape route to the mountains. There are a number of smaller resorts in the foothills of the National Park. Though many of the peak and ridge climbs are for experienced walkers only, many of the waymarked paths are accessible for regular walkers and there are some high quality downhill pistes for skiers. Up to three million visitors visit the Park each year, which inevitably, in such a concentrated area of visitor activity, causes severe problems. Traffic has grown substantially each year with Zakopane now suffering chronic parking and congestion problems. Although the Czech Republic closed part of the border in 1990 for a ten year period, there are now several cross-border routers into the Slovak Tatra, but a passport is still needed and even though there are still border police, some official crossing places are still closed to foreigners. The steadily increasing volume of climbers, walkers and skiers using the slopes is having an effect on vulnerable areas of the mountains, with significant areas of erosion. In order to increase funds for environmental protection, the Park authorities have imposed a nominal entry fee in the Park area, collected at the main access points including on main paths, to the mountains. Groups of ten people or more must have an official guide arranged unless part of a pre-booked touring group, through the Park offices in Zakopane. There is some conflict with skiers and the Park authorities regarding potential damage to the rich flora on the slopes and the authorities have refused to build further facilities such as new ski-lifts within the Park’s territory. The Park is not afraid to levy a small charge in the face of an overwhelming influx of tourists, but they make clear that these tolls are for environmental protection. It is very easy for a key resort to be swamped by tourists so that entry into the Park Significant potential lessons for the Lake District •

The continuing effective nature of the Zoning system to protect the Inner Core and most important eco systems of the National Park.

Even with busy climbing and skiing resorts on their doorstep, such as Zakopane and Tatranska Lomnice, the National Park authorities have succeeded in ensuring high visitor management standards and protection on their heartland areas, despite lack of resources.

Charging visitors to help resource environmental protection.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study •

National Park Visitor Centres that tackle the big issues as part of raising environmental awareness – global warming, Waldsterben, traffic and not just cosy stories of shepherds, orchids and watermills. 7. BANFF NATIONAL PARK

Banff was Canada’s first national park. It is located in the heart of the Rocky Mountains on the AlbertaBritish Columbia Border. The Park was established at the end of the 19th century. Initially just a 26 square km hot springs reserve, Banff now consists of 6,641 sq km of superb mountain scenery. Towering snow-capped mountain peaks, glaciers, hot springs, great valleys, dense forests, alpine meadows, glacial lakes, especially the emerald Lake Louise and great rivers with grizzly bears, caribou and wolves are just some of the features of this park. Trails can be followed to Mount Victoria’s glacial viewpoints, with winter skiing or summer canoeing available options. Visitor activities include canoeing, kayaking, mountaineering, walking, cycling, fishing and camping. There are an enormous number of camping grounds, whilst the town of Banff lies within the National Park boundaries and is subject to National Parks Act regulations. Just one and half hour’s drive from the Calgary in Alberta, .4.5 million visitors come to Banff National Park each year. There is a wide range of accommodation available from hotel suites, lodges, log cabins and campsites The Trans Canada Highway runs through the Park as does the Canadian Pacific Railroad. A key issue identified in the Banff Nation Park Plan is the impact of visitor traffic on the main highway through the Park. This has become a major threat to wildlife crossing the road, and a major project identified by the National Park has been to secure safe crossings under or around the highway to reduce the death and injury toll among the Nature Park’s wildlife.

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Appendix C Dales Millenium Trust, Zoning in the Peak District and Rural Enterprise Support in Northumbria National Park The Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust The Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust was established in 1996, and is based in Clapham, North Yorkshire, within the National Park. The impetus for the setting up of the Trust came from the National Park Authority, facing a gap between its aspirations and its funding. To seek a way forward the Authority employed a full time fund raising officer, Richard Witt, to advise the Authority on ways of increasing income from external sources. It was evident that major new sources of funding, from bodies such as the Heritage Lottery Fund and the Millennium Commission were not available to local authorities. The way forward was for the establishment of a Charitable Trust which would be closely linked to the National Park in terms of objectives, but be totally independent and free standing, with a range of partners including the Park Authority itself, the National Trust, Forestry Commission, Woodland trust, Environment Agency, English Nature, Field Studies Council, Learning Skills Council, Craven College, Yorkshire Forward, as well as individual landowners and farmers, community groups and others. The 16 Trustees include both the Chairman and Members of the National Park Authority, but also a wide variety of individuals representing landowning, farming, conservation and outdoor interests. In recent years Trustees have also included representatives with business and financial backgrounds, a clear advantage in securing the necessary funding packages. The current Chairman is Lord Shuttleworth, who as well as owning an estate on the edge of the Dales is former Chairman of the Rural Development Commission. The YDMT has also been fortunate in attracting the Prince of Wales as their Patron who has allowed his name to be used in fundraising schemes (including the auctioning of a watercolour by HRH) and writing a forward for a celebratory book. A major project awarded in 1996, the first year of the Trust, was Environet. This was a £4 million programme of community-led environmental projects in the National Park. It extended over a four year period up to and including the Millennium itself. However this funding could only be secured through matching funding which had to come from public appeals, individual and corporate donors, and project partners, including European Union funding. Over the four year period an additional £5 million was attracted to the Dales. The Trust keeps a register of donors, who are contacted regularly and enjoy a regular newsletter “Milestones” There were 12 categories of projects in the Environet programme including wildlife conservation, walls and barns restoration, village and access improvement, historical feature conservation and paths bridges and stepping stone restoration. All projects had to show clear evidence of community support including Parish Councils and voluntary groups. In practice National Park staff were able to bring forward a significant number of schemes which could not have otherwise have been funded by the Park Authority, either by encouraging a landowner or land manager to make the formal application, or working with local community groups and Parishes to provide clear evidence of local community support. There were also a number of major “flagship” projects such as the restoration of West Burton Village Hall, the refurbishment of Marrick Priory as an education centre, and the redevelopment of Grinton Lodge Youth Hostel, again to create new educational facilities. However there many projects were genuinely local community inspired, such as restoration of an ancient pinfold in the village of Malham, or the planting of daffodils by Hellifield primary school. A major part of the Environet programme was woodland planting, with a hugely successful “plant a tree” scheme, which encouraged many thousands of individual donations in predetermined “Donor Woods”. Tens of thousands of trees were donated as gifts or memorials of loved ones, even though a particular wood, rather than individual trees were identified.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study As well as individual donors, the YDNP have developed an extensive Corporate Donors scheme, which includes a variety of regionally or locally based business and enterprises, including major companies such as Skipton Building Society, VP, Northern Electric and KMPG. A particular feature of the Millennium Commission Environet scheme was the fact that around 10% of costs could be reclaimed by the Trust itself to operate the scheme. Skilled project teams would work with partners including Park staff, to ensure schemes came to fruition and met the highest standards, with a long term, on-going maintenance commitment. In all over 350 projects were completed, benefiting the local economy as labour and materials were sources locally whenever possible. Following the end of the Millennium Commission project – itself delayed because of the impacts of Foot and Mouth disease which made site access to much of the area impossible – the YDMT began work on a three year programme in the west Craven Dales (the southern and western half of the National Park) known as Dales Living Landscape which was funded during 2002 and 2003 by the Heritage Lottery Fund. This £2 million award has enabled the Trust to continue similar - if carefully rebranded – community-led conservation work to the Environet scheme. Once again the YDMT were successful in drawing down much of the necessary £2 million matching funding to enable the programme to be developed. However it was also clear that in order for the work to continue, and to maintain its core administrative, fund raising and project teams the Trust had to diversify in various ways. This has included setting up Dales Heritage Education and Training designed to teach skills which lead to jobs in harmony with the local environment and develop the skills of volunteers, a Dales Countryside Apprenticeship scheme with the local further education college leading to a NVQ Level 2 qualification in Environmental Conservation. A recent development is operating Specialist Traineeships in partnership with English Nature, as well as specialist courses for professional contractors in such skills as stone walling, roofing, use of lime mortar, hedge laying, farmland nature conservation, public access and archaeology. A particularly interesting new development is the Rural Trades Network, which aims to promote and develop the employment and training of construction, heritage countryside and conservation skills in both the Yorkshire Dales and surrounding rural areas of the Dales. This includes a web site (www.ruraltrades.org.uk) which indicates the availability of businesses offering these skills for potential customers. This is helping to develop a vital new skills base to help maintain the fabric of the National Park. The YDMT also helps to manage the Sustainability Fund on behalf of the National Park Authority, giving professional advice to applicants on individual bids to the Fund and liaising closely with the National Park officers. The Trust now employs a team of 14 specialist staff, including its Director, Iain Oag. The future of the Trust is likely to focus on a wider range of smaller projects for a variety of clients, including the Yorkshire Dales National Park Authority itself. Special areas of work will include conservation project management, where it has special expertise, and in fund raising, building on its existing individual and corporate donor base in order to provide match funding for specific conservation-related community projects. Further information: Iain Oag, Director, Yorkshire Dales Millennium Trust, 015242. 51002; (www.ydmt.org)

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study THE PEAK DISTRICT – RECREATIONAL ZONES The concept of Recreational Zoning, as a management concept, emerged in comments by responses to the 1990 2nd Peak National Park Structure Plan by the Secretary of State’s which indicated that further thought ought to be given to the problems of recreational management between areas of the Park of differing degree of environmental sensitivity. The concept of Zoning is common to most mainland European National Parks; this reflects the fact that the Peak District National Parks has always been outward looking and has fostered close contacts with other European National Parks through training and information sharing programmes at its major educational centre at Losehill Hall in the Hope Valley. The Zones are outlined in the Peak District’s Structure Plan Policy RT1 (b) (iii). In essence the Park is broadly divided into two major Zones, the Natural Zone and the Rural Zone. The Natural Zone Natural Zones will include areas which already receive a degree of special protection for their ecological importance, such as Nature Reserves or Sites of Special Scientific Interest. They include those areas where the vegetation is almost entirely self-sown, or with only minor modifications by human activities. There are few buildings or obvious signs of human influence such as field boundaries. The Natural Zone areas are not truly 'natural' since human influence has considerably shaped the environment. However, they are the nearest thing to genuine wilderness in the Park. They encompass much of the finest areas of open heather or peat moorland, upland heath, parts of the limestone dales and surviving areas of ancient woodland. Natural Zones are defined by the Authority to be the same area as that which it now uses for the 'Section 3 and Natural Zone Map'. This map is used by the Authority to meet its obligations under Section 3 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act to indicate those areas of the National Park that are particularly important to conserve. This Map therefore forms a key part of the conservation and visitor management strategies of the National Park. It will also have considerable relevance in terms of public access to Open Country as required by the CROW Act 2000. Certain areas are also highlighted in the National Park Management Plan 2000-05 for consideration as places that might be allowed to “revert back to nature” as semi-wilderness areas. The only developments permitted in the Natural Zone are works essential in the national interest (however so defined) or essential for the management of the area (for example a new pathway or a weir on a stream or river) or a development that is essential for the conservation or enhancement of the National Park’s valued characteristic (for example the extraction of specialist building stone required for conservation work. On Sites of Scientific Interest, which covers much of the Natural Zone, intrusive activities such as motor sport or clay pigeon shooting are also forbidden. The Rural Zone The Rural Zone includes all those areas of the Park (outside urban areas) where human economic, residential and recreational activity have significantly modified the environment. The following guidance describes the types of activity and levels of recreation and tourism development (other than camping and caravan sites) which may be acceptable within Recreation Zones 1-3. This guidance is indicative and is not intended to be comprehensive. In practice each proposal within any particular Zone is considered on its merits.

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Zone 1:

Informal, low-impact, active recreation uses acceptable with careful management, such as hostels, farmhouse accommodation, walking, cycling and riding routes;

Zone 2:

Informal recreation uses acceptable with careful management, such as small car parks, picnic sites, facilities linked to walking, cycling and riding. Consideration should be given to the re-use of existing buildings wherever possible in preference to new build;

Zone 3:

Development associated with the more intensive levels of recreation use, including larger car parks, information provision and visitor facilities.

It may well be that, despite a proposal being of the appropriate type for a particular Zone, it is unacceptable because of its local impact or because it would intensify existing development or activity in the locality beyond acceptable levels. In many cases, what happens in a locality, and whether a specific development would harm that locality, is also largely determined by the local community themselves. It may also include such considerations as tranquillity, both of the activity itself which may take place in the development, and the road traffic the development will generate. Rural Zones 1 -3 should be seen therefore more as a spectrum of sensitivity than a series of carefully delineated areas on a map. In most cases locations in Zone Three will be self evident, including as they will such major honey pots as sites within parts of Edale, the Hope Valley or Ladybower. However other less intensively visited or developed locations may be more difficult to place in a particular Zone. This again emphasises why local involvement and participation in the planning process is so important. It is important to stress that the demarcation of Zones, apart from the Natural Zone, are therefore deliberately vague and do not follow sharp lines or boundaries on the map. In no way, however does the Zoning concept pre-empt or pre-determine the requirements of the Peak District Local Plan; it is rather a tool to help determine Conservation, Visitor Management and Development Control priorities within that Plan. It also has equally relevance for the Park Management Plan, both for the National Park Authority itself, as well as the management policies of its partners such as English Nature, the National Trust and the Water Utility companies who are major landowners. Further information: Pete Abbott, Senior Policy Officer, Peak District National Park 01629 816310.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study Supporting Rural Enterprise in Northumberland National Park Northumberland National Park is unique in placing the economy at the heart of its Vision, in the belief that the most effective mechanism in achieving the purposes of a National Park is through working with the local community and other partners in a new form of sustainable rural development. The National Park has begun to put more resources into rural development, and has established special funds for each of the four Action Areas with the National Park (Hadrian’s Wall, North Tyne and Redesdale, The Cheviots, and Upper Coquetdale) to improve the integration between sustainable development and conservation. The National Park employs a Farms and Rural Resource Officer to work with farmers and rural businesses. The officer works to enable farmers in the National Park to benefit economically from environmental management, for example by introducing Countryside Stewardship payments on as many farm holdings as possible. Currently around 40% of holdings or 60% of the National Park’s total land cover is within a Countryside Stewardship agreement. The National Park also works in close partnership with Defra’s Rural Development Service to target farm diversification advice, by promoting the Rural Enterprise Scheme. In the North East region Defra’s Rural Development Service have a policy of encouraging applicants from Northumberland National Park and the region’s two Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty for both Countryside Stewardship and the Rural Enterprise Scheme. The Rural Enterprise scheme (RES) is part of the measures within the England Rural Development Programme (ERDP). The scheme provides assistance for projects which help develop more sustainable, diversified and enterprising rural economies and communities. RES is available to all rural businesses but it is primarily aimed to help farmers adapt to changing markets and develop new business opportunities. The National Park’s Farm and Rural Resource Officer plays an important role in helping to target information about the Rural Enterprise scheme. The officer works with potential applicants to look for opportunities in which a scheme can be developed which will also qualify for complimentary funding such as Countryside Stewardship or the National Park’s own Sustainable Development Fund which supports the application of green technology in an enterprise or building. The input of National Park staff has been particularly valuable in helping to advise applicants on planning permission and building regulations, a perquisite of eligibility for Rural Enterprise funding. In some cases staff will work alongside applicants to help prepare planning applications or provide supporting evidence to planning colleagues within the Authority. The opening of the Hadrian’s Wall National Trail in May 2003 has acted as a major catalyst to stimulating new Rural Enterprise Scheme submissions, as farmers and other entrepreneurs have identified a shortage in accommodation and other visitor services such as refreshments and cycle storage. Sustainable Development Funding is being used to support solar panels and rain water collection systems for a number of new bed and breakfast facilities. Other projects which have received Rural Enterprise support include a major equine training centre, holiday cottages, farm shops and specialist horse gallop constructor. It is estimated that only around one in ten of the projects in which the Farm and Rural Resource Officer gets involved with is successful in achieving Rural Enterprise support, and a large part of the officer’s time is used in providing advice to farmers and other rural businesses on other potential funding sources. Despite there being only 250 farmers within the National Park, staff are often hard pressed to provide the support and advice that they would like to. The National Park also uses its Area Action budgets to provide small grants to help support individual businesses where Rural Enterprise funding or other funding sources are not appropriate. However, one of the problems of having adopted an integrated funding approach for the National Park as a whole, means that it not always easy to guarantee grant support to business, if that budget is under pressure from other competing National Park responsibilities.

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study For further information contact: Albert Weir (Farms and Rural Resources Officer) or Andrew Millar (Team Leader Farming and Land Management) Northumberland National Park, Eastburn South burn, Hexham, Northumberland NE46 1BS 01434 605555

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Appendix D Notes of Workshop Meetings (March 2004) Workshop 1: Thursday 25 March 2003. 5pm – 7.30pm. LDNPA HQ, Kendal Attendees

Graham McWilliam, Eden District Council Ian Brodie, Friends of the Lake District Brian Jones, Friends of the Lake District Julian Rayner, Lakeland Ltd Tony Wolfe, Lake District NPA Kirstie Royce, Lake District Tourism and Conservation Partnership Bill Smith, Lakes Hospitality Association Martyn Nicholson, Russell Armer Ltd Richard Greenwood, South Lakeland DC David Brockbank, Stavely Mill Yard Kate Braithwaite, Voluntary Action Cumbria Facilitators: Stephen Nicol (Regeneris), Robert Deane (LUC) • •

Some initial criticism of the purpose of the study, there could be a danger of confusing stakeholders and diluting the effort in the delivery of the RRC’s “Next Steps” plan. It was agreed there was a need to emphasis the longer term nature of the study and its role in

Data Issues •

Point was made that agricultural/land management sector could extend beyond standard definitions (and so could be more important than stats suggest) Official data on land use and management underestimates role of non-commercial landowners in maintaining the environment – e.g. ‘hobby’ farmers, NGOs (RSPB etc). Employment is not always the be all and end all measure – well off retirees also provide income from non-employment sources (often larger than those in employment) plus may work and are active in voluntary and other capacities Some personal experience suggests the Lake’s tops are more visited that 10 or 20 years ago even though total visitor numbers appear static; it maybe that the type of visitor has changed.

Comments on Lake District Area at Present •

• •

Lake District was described by many as a dull place for young people to live. It is seen as isolated, with nothing to do in the evenings. While the “grey sector” may have more money, without young people the heart of the Lakes would decay. Danger of ‘demographic cleansing’, where the population was dominated by too many older people with independent investment incomes and urban shopping habits who do not want a youth culture. However, could also considered retirees as an opportunity; aging will happen – but impact on economy is not all negative – many older people are wealthy and have high disposable incomes (plus some work as well) Lake District needs diversity of economic opportunity to keep young people – not everyone wants to work in low wage tourism and retailing sector. Danger of over-reliance on one industry that is prone to shocks and which generally supports low wages. However, there was recognition that tourism will remain the dominant sector for the foreseeable future and an acceptance that large industrial businesses are not suitable in National Park itself.

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• • • • • • • •

• •

There was a scarcity of FE/HE facilities which might generate cluster to hi tech business start ups. Bright young people tend to leave at 18 – few skilled graduate jobs in Lake District to come back to. Retention of youth is also about education opportunities (and lack of university with a HE “black hole”) so young people leave post A-Levels for HE elsewhere, although many desire to return subject to the right job being available. Overall, staff tend to be brighter and of better quality than elsewhere Supply of housing stuck so being taken up by the “grey” market Lack of affordable housing another critical issue to future retention of young people. Quality of built development has been poor in the Lake District (compared to say Switzerland). Quality must be paramount – although raises issues in term of cost for starter homes Lake District is a digital black hole. Large swathes not accessible to broadband or mobiles. There is potential for melt down of tourism – if vfm issues not addressed. High cost of tourism in Lake District could put off repeat visitors. Early retirees running deliberately small scale B&B provision (below £58k VAT threshold) before full retirement is a significant sector. Provide benefits of small family-run accommodation – but resist encouragement to professionalize and raise standards. Statistics suggesting static visitor numbers doesn’t fit with personal experience – more people on fells. But may be change in the activities of visitors. Biggest impact on the environment is agriculture, yet agricultural products are commodity products, with little added value (and it was pointed out relatively little opportunity to add value to the agricultural produce of the Lake District itself, especially as dairying become less common and as sheep reared in the lake District are not market ready

Current Approach • •

• •

Inflexibility of the planning system (especially as operated by LDNPA) was seen as preventing development of other economic sectors. It was felt by many that the LDNPA had failed to engage in the debate on economic development. They had been perceived as aloof. Don’t engage with local people. Viewed environment as the “be all and end all” – not seeing beyond their statutory purposes and not embracing their duty. However, LDNPA pointed out there has been a change in planning law meaning all Local Planning Authorities have to go down route of community involvement – this will be embraced by LDNPA. They also have to work within their statutory remit and two purposes, also have limited financial resources. Concern was expressed over whose role is it to encourage the economy/businesses in the Lake District? Who leads on improving quality and on the towns/villages? RPG and local authority policies making house building difficult – an issue both inside and outside the Lake District. However, Eden DC are doing more about affordable housing – South Lakeland DC aren’t and should be. Confused public objectives on environmental management e.g. English Nature want one thing (e.g. SSSIs), Defra want another (Environmentally Sensitive Areas). There was a need for a more joined up approach.

Possible Policy Responses • •

• •

Idea of developing Kendal as centre of excellence for tourism Outdoor education is a huge sector and a big opportunity – needs appropriate premises and for the LDNPA to be more engaged and supportive. [Note: some suggestion that HSE regulations were reducing young people outdoor activity] LAs should adopt Section 106 restrictions voluntarily on their social housing stock when houses become vacant (F of LD) Statutory Park purposes should be the basis for policy development (Friends of Lake District – but general agreement from all).

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study • •

• • •

Without vibrant economy, businesses won’t invest in their environment. NP duty is the key to delivering purposes. High quality environment is the USP of Lake District tourism. Need to find ways of completing a virtuous circle. There is a willingness in the private sector to invest back in or help channel funds into environmental management, but based on the voluntary approach. The idea of a tax/compulsory levy was been discussed – but (apparently) this has not worked in the Balearics - voluntary levy is the way forward. A real danger of taking future tourism demand for granted and being complacent. Need to keep investing in quality and innovating tourism product. Danger of Lake District’s avowed specialness creating elitist provision, lack of social inclusion and diversity of opportunity. Lake District tourism product might become higher quality and more expensive – but not friendly or inclusive.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study

Workshop 2: 10am-12.30pm 26/3/04 NWDA offices, Penrith Attendees

Miles MacInnes, CSH/ Cumbria CLA Terry Jarvis, Cumbria Rural Enterprise Agency David Calway, Cumbria Tourist Board Robin Beaumont, Friends of the Lake District Steve Heaton, NWDA Jenny Benson, Rural Regeneration Cumbria Jean Metcalfe, University of Central Lancaster (Newton Rigg) Peter Frost-Pennington, Western Lake District Tourism Partnership Facilitators: Stephen Nicol (Regeneris), Robert Deane (LUC)

Comments on Lake District Area at Present •

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• • • •

• • •

Fluidity in land market not as great as might be expected given low profitability in farming and high capital value of land. This because farming as lifestyle still a strong attraction. Nevertheless, general agreement that incomes from farming will continue to decline (especially from the more productive dairy sector). Dairying is likely to all but disappear in the Lake District. Nationally majority of farms sold to non-farmers, but so far not happening in the Lake District. Some concern that the better farmers will move (out of the Lake District) to areas where they can make a better living Diversification opportunities seem limited to tourism, which is already saturated in many areas. Structure plan policies discouraging other (light industrial) diversification. Importance of farming as cultural and social ‘heart beat’ of the Lake District. Land managers of the future will need to have good stock management skills, plus ability to earn majority of income from other sources. Training and skills are way out of subsistence farming. Demand for traditional farming/forestry further education/training courses declining – greatest demand at University of Central Lancashire Penrith campus is for running outward bound type businesses. Education and training centres can attract clusters of new businesses. Need to brand campuses with Lake District identity. We need to look at the quality of educational and health provision in Lake District. This was a driver for inward investment – clearly declining schools roles might affect quality (Cumbria Inward Investment Agency have done some work on this). The loss of younger people and opportunities for them was seen as a serious problem. Was difficult to attract young people at Newton Rigg Campus (just outside Penrith) young people only come because of the course – the social offer is seen as poor and was not a selling point High cost of tourism provision is an issue and could become more of a problem. It was pointed out that B&B in Lake District can be more expensive than a hotel in Venice! Danger that focus on quality will further increase prices leading to lack of affordable YHA / bunk barn provision. However, little danger of Lake District becoming a ‘Benidorm by the Lakes’. Nevertheless, need to raise standards in some sectors. Issue of structure of tourism – with too many low margin, relatively unprofessional businesses. The provision of bedspaces in the Lake District was huge – but need to try and use them all year round Need to diversify economy away from over-reliance on tourism (although it was pointed out that there was a lack of clarity over these alternatives) and continue to diversify within the tourism sector itself (especially in the young, active/extreme sports markets).

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study •

Acceptance that non-tourism / farming economy will need to be concentrated outside the National Park. M6 corridor already doing well. But west coast towns face major challenges with further decline of large industrial employers. The point was made that generally Cumbria and the Lake District was not particularly diverse nor that welcoming/receptive to overseas visitors (or workers, although significant numbers already in the tourism business.); although 50% of students at Carlisle’s HE campus are from overseas. There is an opportunity for inward investment by these students and their families. Part of the reason fro this was the remoteness from international access points. In terms of access, it was important therefore to consider air transport (as both a plus and minus). Possible opportunity to market Carlisle airport to incoming international visitors as well as outgoing business travellers was mentioned. Need to establish virtuous circle, returning economic benefits of high quality tourism product to maintain the environment. 4 means of doing this: ¾

On-farm tourism provision – Focus should be on raising standards of existing provision, not creating new.

¾

Sale of value-added agricultural products to visitors. But limited local products (most livestock sold as breeding or store animals to other farmers ‘down the hill’; dairy farming on the decline).

¾

Hypothecated local tax or voluntary levy – but resistance to paying

¾

Conventional subsidy funded through the national / international tax system (i.e. CAP)

Increase in home working/tele-working so far had largely been related to existing workforce (especially public sector managers) being allowed to work from home, rather than inward investment by new home-working businesses.

Current Approach •

• • • • •

LDNPA praised for pursuit of statutory purposes – it had been successful in supporting the quality of the environment and staving off inappropriate development. While it is now also taking its duty (of “fostering economic and social well-being”) more seriously. FMD was stimulus and LDNPA has adopted a more can-do attitude. Although, in reality resource constraints limit what it can do. However, it needs to engage more with others and better understand wider economic impacts (its approach to the development of a water bottling plant in Wasdale was mentioned as an example of a negative attitude). Needs to avoid creating a “strange sanitised museum in the centre of Cumbria”. Was accepted that its role as statutory planning authority will mean it is always perceived as preventing innovation. NWDA is investing a lot of resource into improving access to broadband (Project Access), but the issue appears as much to be uptake of the opportunity – little evidence of large number of businesses desperate for broadband (however, lack of access may of course self select businesses) Lack of affordable housing will be major factor limiting social diversity and economic development. Efforts of housing associations (e.g. Pooley Bridge, Watermillock) laudable but small scale. Whilst accepting that there was a need for alternative sectors to tourism, there was a lack of clarity over what are these alternatives (not really addressed in planning policies or economic development policies) Poor quality of public realm is a big issues – and the lack of leadership in tackling this was a big issue. Much more was needed to join up the resources and approaches of key public agencies. It was pointed out that the tourism attractions often do pay significantly towards the tourism infrastructure (although accommodation providers do not do so) – there was potential to get funding from tourism businesses in towns via Business Improvement Districts (BIDS), one is being trialled in Keswick (the only one in Cumbria) The Made in Cumbria approach was beginning to offer value added local produce but there were still issues of consistency and quality of supply – the supply chain issues need resolving

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study •

• • •

The strong pressure for growth along the M6 corridor was noted and had led to strong demand for premises on Penrith’s expanded Business Park – however mostly from local firms expanding (in existing sectors), not from inward investment Businesses find grants and subsidies too complex – too many schemes and too much paperwork While there is little that can be done to reverse market pressure, central Govt policy (limiting development to key settlements) is fuelling house price inflation (the Barker report was mentioned). Access to broadband (as well as ability to use it) amongst SMEs was seen as an important issue now – although this was likely to be solved in the future (by Project Access and improvements in technology and cost). In West Coast public transport is not geared up to tourism and access for visitors - Coastal Railway does not run on Sundays, there are no taxi firms and bus services poor.

Possible Policy Responses •

Important role of “incubation-style” units to provide managed workspace and advice for start-ups. Currently available at West Lakes and Barrow (more could be done in Kendal and Penrith). Suggestion that this should be focussed just outside Lake District, providing employment opportunities for Lake District residents. But there was an important issue of public transport. Potential role of bespoke minibus services (by employers, colleges, etc) as alternative to little-used public transport.

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study

Overview of the Two Workshops •

There was considerable agreement on: ¾ The continued pressure on the area from retirees and the strong demographic drivers ¾

The likely continued fall in agricultural incomes, yet importance of agriculture as cultural/social glue for the area

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The importance of retaining a balance in demographics and ensuring young people (from 16 to mid 20s) are retained and/or encouraged to return (post University)

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The primacy and importance of the environment as THE economic driver (and a recognition that National Park designation had helped retain the environmental quality) – there was a danger, however, of mothballing the Lake District

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Some development and investment needed with key issues being: affordable housing; improving the (physical fabric of) the tourism product; sites for high quality businesses to allow SME growth

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The need to re-invest in the tourism product and ensure the area did not rest on its laurels

Less agreement on: How far to push economic diversification (non-tourist, non-land based)? ¾ ¾ ¾

How far sites around the LDNP could/should be the location for new industry? Extent to which tourism should be more exclusive, higher price and higher quality or more inclusive? It was pointed out the second National Park purpose is to foster “appropriate enjoyment”; National Parks are not intended to be exclusively for the well heeled and better off. Want to allow all types of visitors but a quality (in different senses) experience for all.

Need a long term vision – perhaps the Lake District as a world class landscape providing amenity supported by a robust economy

Ref: A/00124

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Lake District: Economic Futures Study

Ref: A/00124

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http://www.nwda.co.uk/pdf/LDEF-Stage1Report  

http://www.nwda.co.uk/pdf/LDEF-Stage1Report.pdf

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