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ISO/TC 252

ISO/TC 252 ISO/TC 252 - Project committee: Natural gas fuelling stations for vehicles Email of secretary: shyreen.dahoe@nen.nl Secretariat: NEN (Netherlands)

N032 Liaison report & state of union NGV Global Mumbai 2010 Document type:

Other committee document

Date of document:

2010-11-29

Expected action:

INFO

Background: Committee URL:

http://isotc.iso.org/livelink/livelink/open/tc252

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Global Momentum •

Average growth (total numbers) since 2000 = 27% /annum Average of 4,000 new NGVs on the road per day (past 5 years) Average of 8 new NGV fuelling stations established per day (past 2 years) Vehicle growth on par with projections made in 2006, despite recession in 2009 65 million NGVs (approx. 9% of current world vehicle fleet size) projected by 2020 A lot of takeover and merger activity - $200 million in one week in July. Indicates consolidation and maturity for the industry

• •

ISO PC 252 – Liaison and State of Union

Brett Jarman Executive Director

Mumbai – November 2010 Connecting the Natural Gas Vehicle Industry

Markets are Maturing

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Dec 2009

NGVs

Stations

Pakistan, Argentina, Iran and Brazil, all with more than 1.5 million NGVs each.

Pakistan

2,300,000

3,068

Argentina

1,807,186

1,851

India – Now more than 1 million NGVs

Iran

1,665,602

1,021

Brazil

1,632,101

1,704

India

935,000

560

Italy

628,624

730

China

450,000

1,339

Colombia

300,000

460

Ukraine

200,000

285

Bangladesh

177,555

500

Iran – 2 million NGVs

Top ten nations account for 89% of total NGV population (10.096 million)

Rate of growth in top four nations expected to slow (momentum increasing again in Argentina though) Mostly price sensitive markets

Projection

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Energy Security • Oil distribution– limited sources. Subject to price ‘management’ via supply

Energy Security • Natural Gas distribution – more widely distributed. Almost impossible to manage price via supply

Graphic - BP Statistical Review 2008 (red highlights added by NGV Global)

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Graphic - BP Statistical Review 2008

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Energy Security

Energy Reserves

• Natural Gas distribution – more widely distributed. Almost impossible to manage price via supply • OPEC has 77% of known oil reserves and thus controls world oil pricing. • Russia has an additional 9.2% of oil reserves. • This means more than 85% of world oil reserves are in the hands of only 13 countries.

Distribution of oil reserves (billion barrels)

Distribution of natural gas reserves (Trillion cubic metres) Less concentration in Middle East. More even distribution amongst other regions, including Asia- Pacific , where demand will likely increase most in coming years. With natural gas vehicles, OPEC will no longer have world economies ‘over a barrel’.

Graphics - BP Statistical Review 2010

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Industry SWOT

NGV Global Draft Strategic Plan

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

•Abundant gas supplies worldwide – highest capability in alternative fuel segment •Geographic distribution of NG •Capability (i.e. range of vehicles and applications) •Increasing product availability •High safety standards •Small scale LNG capabilities

•Low infrastructure availability •Fighting status quo of well established fuels •Inadequate profile in media •Low participation in NGV associations

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

•Leverage biomethane in renewables sector •More vigorous participation in commercial vehicle segment •Marine segment – massive fuel volumes •Raise media profile

•‘Other’ alternatives confusing market place •Fickle Government policy •Inconsistent treatment of methane as pollutant •Safety short cuts •Inadequate regulatory oversight •Diminishing perception of environmental benefits •Variable standards and regs across markets •Strong lobbying efforts from status quo fuels

• Four Focus Areas – – – –

Safety Information and Awareness Standards and Regulations Advocacy and Relationships

• Ongoing efforts in all areas • Additional focus given to one area each year for next four years

Safety

Information and Awareness

• • • •

• Constant gathering and dissemination of data (Research Assistant planned for 2011)

Main focus for first year Incident reporting system (online) Collate and analyse historical incident data Incident feedback system (lessons learnt communicated to industry) • Position paper on cylinder and vehicle identification • Incident investigation recommendations

– e.g. Gas composition data in conjunction with IGU

• Revamp website to become ‘knowledgebase’ • Updating members’ portal • Plans for industry year book – commencing 2011 calendar year • Specific PR strategy • Develop short 3-4 minute generic videos for use in all markets • Reviewing current Conference model


Standards and Regulations

Advocacy and Relationships

• Harmonisation main priority • Global audit of standards recently completed – published soon • Review cost of non-harmonisation to industry • Review industry for best practice cylinder inspection protocols • Stimulate culture shift amongst regulators re importance of policing regs (i.e. change current indifference to active role) • Increase liaison status with ISO and other committees (e.g. OIML) • Initiate NWIPs as required

• Provide global policy models for Governments (matrix of sectors and their needs) • Strive for consistent treatment of methane in emissions regs • Help establish and build national and regional NGV associations • Build on UN relationships (attending UNFCCC climate change talks in Mexico next month) • Monitor harmonisation of light and heavy duty test procedures • Build on NGO relationships – IGU, IEA, etc.

The Results Are In

The Results Are In

Pareto Principle (80/20 rule) ‘roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes’

HYBRIDS

HYBRIDS

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Major Trends (Opportunities) in Coming Decade

Hybrids – Expectation vs Reality

*

• Commercial Vehicles Likely to Lead Market in High GDP Nations • Heavy Duty Applications (USA 7% of AFVs accounting for 67% of petroleum displacement) • Marine Applications • Renewable Biogas/Biomethane • Small Scale LNG Production Facilities • Modular ‘scalable’ CNG fuelling stations • CNG Hybrids. Buses especially. • Consolidation in CNG cylinder production (mergers and takeovers)

*2007 displacement = 16 million gallons

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NGV Global

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Brett Jarman – Executive Director bjarman@iangv.org

• •

Head Office - PO Box 128 446, Remuera, Auckland, New Zealand Web sites www.iangv.org (Industry Info) www.ngvglobal.com (Weekly News) SUBSCRIBE ONLINE FREE www.ngvglobal.org (Association Info)

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Over 300 members worldwide Network of national and regional affiliates

Sponsor members…


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